Joey Gallo Shatters Failure Narratives

Joey Gallo is no stranger to Target Field. Just like teammate Carlos Correa, he has long enjoyed hitting at the Twins home stadium. Coming up through the Texas Rangers system, he made a mark on the ballpark when blasting a home run into the windshield of a truck parked beyond the right field wall.

Traded from Texas to New York during the 2021 season, Gallo stuck with the Yankees for 82 games a year ago. With his performance cratering to the tune of a 78 OPS+, the impatient fan base wanted him gone, and he was on his way to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Getting into just 44 games on the west coast, he wasn’t that much better posting just an 85 OPS+.

Hitting free agency for the first time in his career, Gallo had the opportunity to choose his next landing spot. Bench coach Jayce Tingler has known Gallo for some time, and the former Rangers slugger had other motivators that made the Twins a good fit. Coming in to play both the outfield and first base, there was no shortage of work with Minnesota.

Now more than halfway into his deal with the Twins, there has been a bit of everything. Gallo has missed time with a hamstring injury, he has hit gargantuan home runs, he has played three corner positions as well as centerfield, and he has seen some droughts. All of that has culminated in an .805 OPS to lead Minnesota’s qualified hitters, and his 114 OPS+ is also well above league average.

Expecting Gallo to be anything other than what he has been over the course of his career is likely a misunderstanding of who he is. Batting average is not something that will ever be important for him, and as a Three True Outcomes player, he does the other two-thirds of the equation very well. His on-base percentage is heavily rooted in his walk rate, and his slugging percentage is a by-product of an ability to blast the baseball.

On the season, Gallo has 15 homers to his credit, and although his 13.6% walk rate is below his career average, it’s still a strong showing. He has teetered with a 40% strikeout rate this season, and that’s not a great development, but largely emphasized by Minnesota having a team that swings and misses too much as a whole. Ideally Gallo could take something like three percent from his strikeout rate, add it to his walk rate, and he’d be right there with the best version of himself.

This season, the largest detractors in Gallo’s performance have come from a career-worst chase rate, combined with a career-worst whiff rate. He’s making less contact than ever, but is generating a storing quality of contact when connecting. He has solid barrel rates and hard hit percentages. With nearly 50% of the season left as a runway, some very small tweaks could take the signing over the top.

Defensively Gallo has not been the same player he has shown an ability to be over the course of his career. Some of that could likely be attributed to his hamstring injury, and more of it could be sorted as the sample size grows larger. Being able to play all three outfield positions and fill in for Alex Kirilloff at first base, Gallo will have ample opportunity to contribute in the field.

If Gallo were to simply double his production from this point forward, he’d provide Minnesota with something around $10 million in value. That is still a net-negative contract, but he’s not the anchor consistently suggested in the same breath as someone like Max Kepler.

Maybe the rest of the way doesn’t get better for Gallo, and he slogs along as just a bit above replacement level. The money spent on him wouldn’t have been worth it, but hardly hamstrings the Twins either. If he can make some tweaks, stay healthy, and settle into a consistent level of production, this has the potential to turn into a very good deal.

The Twins would have preferred to see more from Gallo thus far, but I’d bet they’re perfectly fine with where things stand, and increasingly hopeful for the rest of the way.