Is Chris Paddack Really Going to Breeze into the Starting Rotation?

As spring training warms from a simmer to a boil, the Twins only have a few questions to answer over the coming weeks. We have an idea of what the lineup will look like—at least in terms of who will play where. The bullpen is its usual mix of established studs and collected misfits scraping for the final few relief spots. The rotation is all about that fifth starter role, and which one of Minnesota’s promising young hurlers will break camp claiming it.

Lost in this talk, though, is a crucial question: why does Chris Paddack have a solidified spot? He’s a two-pitch 29-year-old with a career 4.38 ERA, whose only year close to a “full season” was one pandemic and a second torn UCL ago. He’s pitched 432 2/3 innings across six seasons. The Twins themselves know he can’t be trusted: they spent the entire offseason quietly attempting to deal him and his $7.5-million contract, only to find that they couldn't wrest much value out of any other team in exchange for him. In an era with a dearth of starting pitching, no one wanted to shell out Aaron Civale money for Paddack, unless they could do so without including a prospect. Now, the team has Paddack written into the fourth spot in their rotation, in heavy pencil—if not in ink.

I know the members of the Twins front office are wise enough to understand and avoid the sunk-cost fallacy. Yet, they’ve acted oddly adamant and steadfast in supporting the Paddack experiment. “The slider,” which we’ve heard a lot about—far too much, considering he proved unable to master a true tertiary pitch years ago—is the amorphous sticking point. Maybe that’s the key to unlocking everything. And maybe Oswaldo Arcia will lighten up on the swing-and-miss, one of these years. 

At some point, a player can no longer live in Potential World; they have to prove development (beyond nebulous quotes) and actually bring something to the table. Knowing when to call it on someone isn’t always easy. We see the potential in bits and moments—starts and pitches—and dream of a future where that consistency is bottled, properly maintained, and self-evident. 

I’m calling it on Paddack. I think he made sense in 2022, when the smoking ruins of J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker begat the terror of Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. But the Twins have options now. Great ones, too. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections see David Festa and Zebby Matthews as better pitchers even right now, with Simeon Woods Richardson as essentially an equal. Shoot, even Andrew Morris is indistinguishable in terms of production.

So here’s what the Twins should do: swallow their pride and move Paddack to the bullpen. Eat the money. Make him baseball’s most expensive middle reliever (or not, even; the idea of spending this much on a relief arm is only crazy to the Pohlads). They’re never seeing that $7.5 million again, so why scramble to maximize their ROI when they could avoid blocking a worthy youngster—and potentially gain a relief ace in the process? We saw a sneak peek of reliever Chris Paddack in 2023, and he looked excellent, striking out 14 in 8 2/3 innings combined between the regular season and playoffs. He was one of the few Twins hurlers to consistently get Houston batters out in the ALDS. Small samples, yes, but it shouldn’t be surprising that a guy who really only commands two pitches dominates with a simplified approach and elevated velocity over short bursts.

If (when) Paddack breaks camp with the Twins as a starter, I won’t get it. He’s a known commodity, not appreciably better than the three main guys nipping at his heels. Better suited in the bullpen, he could provide a boon to a relief group bursting with potential, but thin in upside in its second tier when factoring in Brock Stewart and Justin Topa’s injury issues. It won’t happen, though, and he’ll instead block a young pitcher likely to match (if not surpass, outright) his production. Injuries will probably open a path to the majors for those younger hurlers soon enough, anyway, but it's foolish of the Twins to think reactively.