If Twins Trade One of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, Which Should it Be?

As the MLB trade deadline approaches, the Minnesota Twins are holding two of the most sought-after bullpen arms on the market: Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. With both relievers boasting 2.5 years of team control and plenty of experience in high-leverage roles, the Twins are in a rare position of strength. According to The Athletic’s trade deadline big board, Duran and Jax now rank fifth and ninth overall among available players, and first and second among available relievers, following Emmanuel Clase being placed on leave. If the Twins decide to part with only one of them, the question becomes: which one do they trade, and which one do they keep?

When trying to evaluate who carries more trade value, Duran initially stands out. He has a 2.01 ERA over 49.1 innings this season, is still pumping fastballs at an average of 100.2 miles per hour, and is just 27 years old. He’s been the team’s most trusted closer in big moments, and has consistently delivered dominant performances since debuting. However, Griffin Jax’s profile is quietly just as appealing, if not more so. While his ERA is a modest 3.91 over 46 innings, he is striking out a higher percentage of batters than Duran (36.9%, compared to Duran’s 25.7%). Jax’s FIP is also lower than Duran’s (2.00 to 2.48), and he’s generating more whiffs and a higher chase rate from hitters. His average fastball velocity is trending upward, reaching 97 MPH this year compared to 96.5 in 2023. Duran, by contrast, has seen a dip in velocity from 101.8 in 2023 to 100.2 this season.

Interestingly, recent reports suggest that the Twins are seeking similar trade packages for either pitcher, reportedly asking for top-100 prospects whether it’s Duran or Jax. That reveals how closely their trade value is viewed by the Twins front office, and how compelling the argument for either pitcher has become. What’s especially intriguing is the built-in relationship between their individual market value. If the Twins choose to keep one and make it known that the other is not available, the trade value of the remaining pitcher could immediately rise. Removing either Duran or Jax from the market would leave the other as the undisputed top reliever available at the deadline, which could push contending teams to bid more aggressively for what would then become the rarest remaining bullpen upgrade.

In my opinion, if the Twins only trade one, they should keep Jax and trade Duran. Even though the trade value between the two is similar, if the Twins can extract a slightly better return for one of them, I believe Duran would command that premium. That alone could tilt the decision. Beyond that, I think there’s reason to be more optimistic about Jax moving forward than there is for Duran. Duran is still effective, but there are signs of a slow decline. His velocity is dipping; his strikeout numbers have decreased in each of the last three seasons; and his fastball usage continues to decline. While his breaking ball is still generating success this year, I’m skeptical that it will continue to be as effective if his fastball velocity continues to drop. If hitters no longer have to respect the same level of heat, they’ll be able to time up the offspeed stuff more easily, and the edge could erode quickly.

Jax, on the other hand, is trending in the opposite direction. He’s raised his strikeout rate for three consecutive seasons and is having the best swing-and-miss season of his career in 2025. Though he had a shaky start to the season, his underlying metrics have been strong all year, and his results are starting to catch up. He’s been negatively affected by WPA with untimely hits, which is not a predictive stat—though it can be a big penalty in the moment.

Age is often a factor in these decisions, but I don’t think it’s a major one here. Jax is 30 and under team control through his age-32 season. Duran is 27, but both pitchers are only signed through 2027. The difference in contract value also matters, especially for a team with a limited payroll. Jax is earning $2.3 million this year, while Duran is making $4.125 million. And with how arbitration works with valuing stats like saves, Duran’s contract figures to escalate at a more rapid rate heading into next season.

All of this adds up to a decision that leans toward keeping Jax and trading Duran. If the Twins can net two top-100 prospects for either pitcher, Duran might be the better trade chip to capitalize on. With Jax trending upward (despite the lesser results) and carrying a friendlier contract, he might be the better bet to anchor the bullpen for the next two years.

That’s where I stand, but I’d love to hear what you think. If the Twins only trade one of Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax, who would you rather they keep? Would you sell high on Duran and lean into Jax’s underlying numbers? Or would you hold onto the younger, proven closer and try to get value for Jax while his peripherals shine? Let us know in the comments.