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    Game Recap: Twins 3, Orioles 2


    Andrew Thares

    Spearheaded by a great start from Michael Pineda, and a three-run bomb from Miguel Sano the Twins completed a three game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles and have now won six of their last seven ballgames.

    Image courtesy of © Marilyn Indahl-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score
    Pineda: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
    Home Runs: Sano (9)
    Top 3 WPA: Sano .341, Pineda .205, Thielbar .076
    Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs)

    710672219_ScreenShot2021-05-26at3_07_43PM.thumb.png.7e2ffeccd79fda1792521c31d66ec555.png

    Michael Pineda Shines in Return from IL

    It was a brief stint on the IL for Michael Pineda, who had to miss just one start as a result of having a procedure to remove an abscess on the inner part of his thigh. This was welcome news for the Twins as Pineda has unquestionably been their best starting pitcher early on in the 2021 season.

    The Baltimore Orioles jumped out on Pineda early, as Trey Mancini, who is well on his way to earning comeback player of the year honors, blasted his 11th home run of the season in the first. Luckily for the Twins, it was only a solo shot, as Cedric Mullins was thrown out trying to steal second after a leadoff single in the first.

     Anthony Santander followed that Mancini home run with a double, and it looked early like Pineda was in for a rough day. That, however, would be the last hit that Pineda would surrender on the day. The third inning got off to a rough start, as Pineda walked back-to-back batters to start the inning, but he was able to retire the 2-3-4 hitters in the Orioles lineup to get out of the jam. From then on, Pineda was perfect as he retired the final 12 batters that he faced.

    Miguel Sano Continues to Deliver

    It has been a saying for most of his Twins career that as Miguel Sano goes, so to do the Minnesota Twins. That statement has never been truer than it has been in 2021. At the heart of the Twins struggles during the first month and a half of the season was Miguel Sano’s inability to contribute at the plate. However, the past week the Twins have looked like a whole new ball club, and that is thanks almost entirely to Sano being the hottest hitter on the planet during that stretch.

    In Wednesday’s ballgame that was more of the same. After the offense struggled to muster just two hits and zero runs through the first five innings, the Twins got a little rally going in the bottom of the sixth. Max Kepler leadoff the inning with a single, and after a Nelson Cruz walk and a couple of base runner advancing groundouts, the Twins found themselves with second and third and two outs, with Sano up. In a situation that Sano has struggled in all year, he came through with a monster three-run home run that Sano took a little time to appreciate off the bat.

    Twins Bullpen Shuts the Door

    The Twins bullpen blowing late leads has been another theme of late, but today they got the job done, allowing just one run over three innings. Both Tyler Duffey and Caleb Thielbar pitched scoreless innings in the seventh and eighth innings, respectively. That paved the way for Hansel Robles to come on in the 9th and pick up his third save of the season. It wasn’t the cleanest of innings for Robles, who gave up a run on two doubles, but with two outs and the trying run on second, Robles got a broken bat groundout off the bat that previously belonged to Stevie Wilkerson to end the ball game.

     

    Bullpen Usage

      SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT
    Robles 27 24 0 13 20 84
    Rogers 9 14 0 26 0 49
    Duffey 13 15 0 0 15 43
    Thielbar 0 18 0 2 16 36
    Alcala 17 0 14 0 0 31
    Colomé 2 0 8 13 0 23
    Farrell 0 0 16 0 0 16
    Stashak 0 0 0 0 0 0

    What's Next

    The Twins have a day off on Thursday, before they welcome the Kansas City Royals to town for a three game series that is slated to start at 7:10 pm CT on Friday with Randy Dobnak on the mound for the Twins.

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    1 hour ago, bighat said:

    In fact, Kansas City has looked like a much better team than the Twins this season, top to bottom.

    Have they, though?

    KC is ahead of the Twins in the standings but their pythag record is worse (21-26 vs 23-26) and the BaseRuns gap is even larger (21-26 vs 24-25). The Twins have been woeful in very specific ways but the Royals haven't been good, either, they've just been more lucky.

    Ranks in AL:
    Bullpen ERA: KC 9th, MN 13th
    Rotation ERA: MN 10th, KC 11th
    Offense OPS: MN 5th, KC 12th

    KC can't even crack the top half of the AL in any of those categories and rank in the bottom third in two of them.

    2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    Have they, though?

    KC is ahead of the Twins in the standings but their pythag record is worse (21-26 vs 23-26) and the BaseRuns gap is even larger (21-26 vs 24-25). The Twins have been woeful in very specific ways but the Royals haven't been good, either, they've just been more lucky.

    Ranks in AL:
    Bullpen ERA: KC 9th, MN 13th
    Rotation ERA: MN 10th, KC 11th
    Offense OPS: MN 5th, KC 12th

    KC can't even crack the top half of the AL in any of those categories and rank in the bottom third in two of them.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=  Fangraph pitching WAR - KC 4.6 13th, MN 1.7 30th.  BABIP - KC is number 3 and MN is #16.  Most important Wins - KC is 19th, MN is is 26.   The big question is - which team is more excited about this series?  And yes, I hope the Twins sweep them, but this is not the Orioles. 

    22 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=  Fangraph pitching WAR - KC 4.6 13th, MN 1.7 30th.  BABIP - KC is number 3 and MN is #16.  Most important Wins - KC is 19th, MN is is 26.   The big question is - which team is more excited about this series?  And yes, I hope the Twins sweep them, but this is not the Orioles. 

    I'm not really sure why you included BABIP in that comment, as it's not generally regarded as something that can be controlled by the pitching/defense, at least not to a large degree.

    But toggle that page over to offense and basically the exact opposite is true (except even moreso). Offensive WAR:

    Minnesota: 5th, 8.3 WAR
    Kansas City: 26th, 2.4 WAR

    That's actually a much larger gap than pitching WAR. And besides, does this tell us a significantly different story than the stats I listed above? Both stat groups tell us the Royals have a pitching advantage and the Twins have a significant hitting advantage so far this season.

    And my post was originally a rebuttal to "Kansas City has looked like a much better team than the Twins this season" and your stats don't suggest that's any more true than my original stats.

    An interesting thing I just noticed, though, and I definitely didn't see it coming.

    FanGraphs has the Twins as the seventh best defense in MLB.

    The Royals are below average, in the negative numbers overall, at 18th in MLB.

    That's just more evidence the Royals haven't been a better team this season, though, or at least not a noticeably better team anyway.

    Lets for a moment put all the analytics aside and pretend its the 1970's and 1980's again...when baseball itself was fun to watch without all the distractions.

    What we all know is no matter who you play, winning begets winning. And they all count as one 'W' each time. These recent games have given the Twins the opportunity to see how it feels again to win games. And while Sano has definitely heated up (thankfully), a lot of this awakening has happened when the 'B' team arrived. Kirilloff, larmach, Garlick and Refsnyder have added a lot of zip to the lineup. All have contributed. I don't believe, as many of you do also, that we will get much out of Buxton. If he gets back by the All-Star game, the Twins will have moved along without him. And he would be just one more injury away from another month off. I love the guy...but he just can't play at the level he needs to play without getting hurt. And Twins may be well to get along without him. He's a luxury. And its all a darned shame.

    Can Twins crawl back to respectability? Perhaps. The talent is there. And now, the sweet smell of victory has returned, so who knows? They need to keep the train rolling against KC.

    Twins Pythag: 23-26 (BaseRuns 24-25)

    KC Pythag: 21-26 (BaseRuns same)

    Baltimore Pythag: 19-30 (BaseRuns 20-29)

    Yes, we're missing Buxton now, but KC is missing Duffy as noted above. We've also dropped our worst 4 offensive performers of the season so far (Cave, Jeffers, Rortvedt, and Rooker, all wRC+ at 43 or below) and replaced them with 98-112 wRC+ performers (not even counting Refsynder).

    4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    I'm not really sure why you included BABIP in that comment, as it's not generally regarded as something that can be controlled by the pitching/defense, at least not to a large degree.

    But toggle that page over to offense and basically the exact opposite is true (except even moreso). Offensive WAR:

    Minnesota: 5th, 8.3 WAR
    Kansas City: 26th, 2.4 WAR

    That's actually a much larger gap than pitching WAR. And besides, does this tell us a significantly different story than the stats I listed above? Both stat groups tell us the Royals have a pitching advantage and the Twins have a significant hitting advantage so far this season.

    And my post was originally a rebuttal to "Kansas City has looked like a much better team than the Twins this season" and your stats don't suggest that's any more true than my original stats.

    An interesting thing I just noticed, though, and I definitely didn't see it coming.

    FanGraphs has the Twins as the seventh best defense in MLB.

    The Royals are below average, in the negative numbers overall, at 18th in MLB.

    That's just more evidence the Royals haven't been a better team this season, though, or at least not a noticeably better team anyway.

    I was just looking for some numbers to tweak your post.  We should not be in the same league with KC, but we are and that is really the issue - no matter which numbers we choose.

    1 minute ago, mikelink45 said:

    I was just looking for some numbers to tweak your post.  We should not be in the same league with KC, but we are and that is really the issue - no matter which numbers we choose.

    Fair enough. I agree the Twins should be playing much better than they are while KC is performing close to where I expected. Any comparison between them is at least mildly damning to the Twins season. 




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