Which Non-Tendered Free Agent Outfielder Can Be of Most Help to Twins?

This offseason, the Twins have a familiar hole to fill: a right-handed-hitting outfielder. Currently, the only right-handed outfielders projected on the Opening Day roster are Byron Buxton and Austin Martin, the latter of whom was a lousy defender and an underpowered hitter last season. Despite the departure of Max Kepler, they still have the left side of the plate covered by outfielders, with Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and Willi Castro (who is best from the left side and in left field). They have even more lefties coming in, such as Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins.

In recent years, they've filled the right-handed fourth outfielder gig in various low-wattage ways. Those signings all have produced against lefties at just about an acceptable level, and there's no reason to expect them to make a big splash for the role now. Can any of the name-brand non-tendered, right-handed outfielders provide stability in 2025?

Bryan De La Cruz: 
2024 stats: .233/.271/.384; 77 wRC+, -1.2 fWAR, MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Projection: $4MM
Given the poor performance and substantial arbitration projection, it's only a mild surprise that the Pirates non-tendered Bryan De La Cruz. The 27-year-old corner outfielder and DH is coming off the worst season of his four-year career, never having previously lit the league on fire.

Even though the Pirates are cheaper than the Twins, they likely would have tendered him a contract around the MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projection if they had thought they could trade him at that figure. After all, they just traded for him from Miami at the trade deadline in late July. He can only play the corner outfield (poorly) and doesn't hit the ball particularly hard for a player of that profile, which is why he will likely be available at the Twins' price point.

His struggles in 2024 were primarily against righties, however, and he was about average against lefties. As long as Castro and/or Martin can cover center field as backups to Buxton until Rodriguez or Jenkins are ready, De La Cruz's skill set could do the job for the Twins. However, as we saw previously with Kyle Garlick and Manuel Margot, this role seems good on paper, but all too often, a right-handed platoon bat will be forced to face righties, and it will be a problem for the team.

The other place where there may be potential is that back in 2022, he had fantastic underlying metrics. He had a high hard-hit rate and barrel rate, translating to a 90th-percentile xwOBA that year. Even this season, he showed the ability to drive the ball relatively consistently—until being traded to the Pirates, when everything collapsed.

The Twins could find a real bargain here, if they can get De La Cruz back to what seemed to be working as recently as early in 2024. More likely, though, he would be a poor signing, with his limitations overshadowing his upside in the field and at the plate.

Dylan Carlson: 
2024 stats: .209/.287/.277; 67 wRC+, -1.0 fWAR, MLBTR Arbitration Projection: $2.7MM
Carlson's 2024 stats make him look like another bottom-of-the-barrel pickup, not much different than De La Cruz, but he is much more intriguing overall. He hasn't been serviceable since 2022, dealing with nagging injuries throughout 2023 and really struggling in 2024, but there may be some upside with the 26-year-old.

He has a great prospect pedigree. Just four years ago, Carlson was a top-20 prospect in baseball. Additionally, he was a really good defensive centerfielder as recently as 2022, and has been passable in that spot even since then. Carlson could bring much-needed insurance in case of a Buxton injury, while also being a quality option against lefties.

The former Cardinal and Ray carries a 122 wRC+ against lefties in his career, despite struggling against all pitchers in 2024. If the Twins can turn him around, he would likely carry a high but not astronomical strikeout rate, a solid walk rate, a prorated platoon share of 30 doubles, and around 20 long balls. Providing that as a fourth outfielder capable of replacing Castro and Martin as Buxton's understudy would be massive for the Twins. Even if they can't get him back quite to that point, he could still be a contributor at around $3 million (or lower), so he may be a worthwhile reclamation project.

Austin Hays: 
2024 stats: .255/.303/.396; 98 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR, MLBTR Arbitration Projection: $6.4MM
Hays (a 2023 All-Star) is the best of this bunch at the plate, but is also certain to be the most expensive. He's been a very reliable player over his career and is coming off just a slightly below-average 2024—playing in Baltimore and then being traded to Philadelphia. 

Were it not for a kidney infection that derailed him in the second half, Heys would probably have been tendered a contract by the Phillies. His stint with them left a sour taste for everyone, so they cut him loose, but he may still be too expensive for the Twins. Even if they can afford him, his defense is a drawback worth considering. He played no games in center field this season, and went from an excellent left fielder to a bad one. Entering his age-29 season, it's hard to see this turning around. If Hays can't cover for Buxton in center, he's certainly less valuable than he might have been a couple of years ago, when he did moonlight in center and was solid in each corner.

Assuming his restored health holds, Hays provides the best bat of this group. Despite struggling by his standards, Hays crushed lefties in 2024 and has been very good against them throughout his career. The Twins may also see an opportunity to get more out of his bat in a new ballpark. Baltimore has been extremely deep in left field for the last few years, and adjusting his approach to hit more fly balls to left field (outs in front of Walltimore, but home runs at Target Field) could make Hays an impact player available cheaply.

Signing other teams' unwanted players is not the optimal way to build a roster, but Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll need to be creative with the payroll limitations imposed upon them by ownership. It's hard to imagine the Twins signing De La Cruz, with all his faults, but it's easy to foresee them trying to get either Hays or Carlson back on track. Both outfielders could provide stability and some upside to a team with a high floor. Do you want the Twins to take a shot on any of these three right-handed bats?