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    Bye Round or Bust: Another Reason for the Twins to Be Aggressive


    Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins are continuing to close the gap widened by the Cleveland Guardians. The goal should be securing a postseason bye. The time to be aggressive is now.

     

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    Since the season ended against the Houston Astros last year, the Minnesota Twins have gone out of their way to do almost everything wrong from an engagement perspective. They didn’t need to pull off a Juan Soto trade or sign Blake Snell to an ugly contract. What they did need to do was ride the positive momentum.

    With ownership slashing payroll and the television debacle playing out, there have been multiple self-induced missteps. Now, suggesting that additional funds are nowhere to be found at the deadline, despite a potential influx to right the television situation, Minnesota is doing it to themselves again. In a position to make the playoffs, and with a core that can make noise, now isn’t the time to shy away from competition.

    Of the teams mentioned above, the Twins may benefit most from putting themselves in a better position. Minnesota is not a juggernaut, and no amount of additions they make will change that reality. Suggesting that they may play flat if they have a first-round bye in the postseason only makes sense if you’d prefer Rocco Baldelli’s team play more games in hopes of winning a World Series. Postseason expansion has helped to keep more organizations engaged in the regular season, but the quick wild card series isn't something that the Twins should want to repeat.

    The Twins should look to position themselves so that their path to the Fall Classic avoids as many pitfalls as possible. While they handled the Blue Jays in a short series a season ago, anything can happen over the course of three games. There are questions as to how the starting rotation will hold up behind the top three arms. The underbelly of the bullpen is concerning, and the roster must remain fresh if they are going to execute that final sprint.

    Right now, the Twins farm system may be deeper than it has at any time in recent memory. The big league roster also doesn’t have gaping holes that need substantial additions to move it forward. There should be no reason that a starter and reliever, at minimum, can't be acquired. Derek Falvey should be told he can go for it, and that doesn’t mean he has to acquire gaudy salaries. What it does mean is that he should be allowed to operate in a manner where no stone is left unturned.

    It’s possible that the Twins' ownership will further limit payroll next season with decreasing television revenues. Continuing to operate this way, while the team is drawing well and competitive, is a slap in the face to fans and a focus on winning. Minnesota is doing everything it can with the players they have now. There is room for them to do more by bringing in a few key reinforcements.

    An additional investment, with long-term ripple effects, was warranted this offseason and didn’t happen. It’s warranted again right now, and there are just days for everyone in the front office to get aligned on making it happen. Now isn’t the time to just dip a toe in. Go after it.

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    5 hours ago, old nurse said:

    A lot of assumptions being made here.. The blogger has the notion that the Twins can make up 4.5 games by making an addition . The Giants are 4.5 back. Maybe they are out looking for a middle infield help to bolster their chance to make up the 4.5 games. 

    Snell has missed 10 starts so far this season. Without a dominant post season run I would doubt that teams are going to be looking to give him 30 million unless it is for 2 seasons. He has had too many seasons with injuries. 

    The Giants (53-55) were 4.5 games back from a playoff spot and have 6 teams ahead of them for 3 Wildcard spots, and two teams are only 1.5 games back from the Giants. They're 10.5 games out of the division lead.
    The Twins were 4.5 games back from winning the division and they would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

    Braves WC1 +5.0 over Giants
    Padres WC2 +4.0 over Giants
    Mets WC3 +3.5 over Giants
    -------------------------------------
    Diamondbacks +3.0 over Giants
    Cardinals +2.5 over Giants
    Pirates +1.5 over Giants
    --------------------------------------
    Giants 
    Cubs 1.5 behind Giants
    Reds 1.5 behind Giants

    Totally different scenarios. The Giants aren't totally out of it, but they're well outside the playoffs given how many teams they need to pass. You have to assume at least 3 of those 6 teams ahead of the Giants for the Wildcard will start distancing themselves. It's a tough row to hoe.

    4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

    The Giants (53-55) were 4.5 games back from a playoff spot and have 6 teams ahead of them for 3 Wildcard spots, and two teams are only 1.5 games back from the Giants. They're 10.5 games out of the division lead.
    The Twins were 4.5 games back from winning the division and they would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

    Braves WC1 +5.0 over Giants
    Padres WC2 +4.0 over Giants
    Mets WC3 +3.5 over Giants
    -------------------------------------
    Diamondbacks +3.0 over Giants
    Cardinals +2.5 over Giants
    Pirates +1.5 over Giants
    --------------------------------------
    Giants 
    Cubs 1.5 behind Giants
    Reds 1.5 behind Giants

    Totally different scenarios. The Giants aren't totally out of it, but they're well outside the playoffs given how many teams they need to pass. You have to assume at least 3 of those 6 teams ahead of the Giants for the Wildcard will start distancing themselves. It's a tough row to hoe.

    I stated what is possible for the Giants point of view. Unless the Giants are going to emulate their departing crosstown rival a blow the team up it is more likely they will be buyers than sellers. The parameter was set in the article that overcoming 4.5 games back is doable.  I even gave what the hole in the Giants is that they need to fill. 

    Blake Snell would be great but no one should get their hopes up that ownership would be happy to swallow that pill. Worst case scenario he gets hurt at the end of the year and they're on the hook for $30M next year which would kill the self-imposed payroll.

    I'd be very happy given how back into form he looks lately, but it ain't gonna happen. Not with this ownership. 

    14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

    The only reason not to make a couple quality moves is:

    C. Ownership is cool with no more than a playoff spot.

    All evidence since November is that this is the case. They see no need for this team to get better, if they're already good enough to get into the playoffs. It also aligns with the Pohlad approach to owning the team since Kirby retired. Falvey has been able to wake them to action after bad years, but otherwise, he's restrained by the short leash that Terry Ryan was so fond of.

    15 hours ago, old nurse said:

    I stated what is possible for the Giants point of view. Unless the Giants are going to emulate their departing crosstown rival a blow the team up it is more likely they will be buyers than sellers. The parameter was set in the article that overcoming 4.5 games back is doable.  I even gave what the hole in the Giants is that they need to fill. 

    I understand what you were looking at, and on the surface, it made sense. Just digging in a little further makes the odds a lot longer because the Giants don't just have to make up 3.5 games to get into the playoffs.

    The Giants have to pass the Mets, Diamondbacks (division), Cardinals and Pirates while preventing 2 teams right behind them from gaining ground (Cubs, Reds). 5 of 6 of those teams are not in the Giants' division. The Giants have zero head to head games against the Mets, Cubs or Pirates. They've got 2 series against the Diamondbacks and a single series against the Cardinals and Reds. So much has to go right for them. It's like calculating playoff odds for the Vikings near the end of the season, haha.

    On 7/29/2024 at 11:47 AM, bean5302 said:

    I understand what you were looking at, and on the surface, it made sense. Just digging in a little further makes the odds a lot longer because the Giants don't just have to make up 3.5 games to get into the playoffs.

    The Giants have to pass the Mets, Diamondbacks (division), Cardinals and Pirates while preventing 2 teams right behind them from gaining ground (Cubs, Reds). 5 of 6 of those teams are not in the Giants' division. The Giants have zero head to head games against the Mets, Cubs or Pirates. They've got 2 series against the Diamondbacks and a single series against the Cardinals and Reds. So much has to go right for them. It's like calculating playoff odds for the Vikings near the end of the season, haha.

    Told you he wouldn’t be traded




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