Astros 6, Twins 4: Verlander Outpitches Ober, Twins Late Rally Falls Short in ALDS Loss

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (43 Pitches, 28 Strikes, 65%)
Home Runs: Jorge Polanco (1), Royce Lewis (3)
Bottom 3 WPA: Ober (-.159), Alex Kirilloff (-.130), Matt Wallner (-0.96)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

The Twins took care of business at home against a mercurial Toronto Blue Jays team, allowing one run over the two games en route to the first postseason sweep in Twins/Senators history. Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray were as advertised, but the offense let quite a few opportunities slip away. Against the defending champion Astros, the lineup would likely need to produce. The Astros were the only AL team that outhit the Twins in the second half, and still feature a menacing, experienced lineup.

The Twins turned to Bailey Ober for game one, citing the Astros lack of at-bats against him, as well as Joe Ryan's inability to keep the ball in the ballpark. It would seem Ober had the moxie to take on a tough team on the road, given his domination this year against the Orioles in Baltimore (7 IP, 0 ER), and against the Dodgers in LA (6 IP, 1 ER).

The Astros started the legendary Justin Verlander. He has not quite pitched to the elite level he had established over the years, but maintains decent velocity, exceptional command and knee-buckling breaking stuff. The casual fan might think this was a lopsided pitching matchup, and they would be proven right.

The first inning started great. Edouard Julien drew a walk as Verlander had trouble commanding his breaking pitches. Jorge Polanco then drove a hanging curveball for a sharp single. Royce Lewis then got ahead in the count before grounding into a double play to extinguish most of the rally. Max Kepler then walked, but Verlander got Alex Kirilloff to tap out to end the threat.

A 23 pitch inning with only 10 strikes from Verlander might have been considered a win. But as he has done so often, Jose Altuve jumped on a first pitch fastball and crushed it 377 feet for a 1-0 Houston lead. Ober settled down after that, getting pop-ups from Alex Bregman and Jose Abreu and convincingly striking out Yordan Alvarez on a high fastball to limit the damage.

The Twins built another threat in the second. After Carlos Correa bounced a single off the second base bag, Matt Wallner lined out. Ryan Jeffers then drove a hanging breaking ball into left field, giving the Twins runners on first and second with one out. Michael A. Taylor then jumped on the first pitch, a fastball, and tapped into an inning-ending double play. 

After an uneventful bottom of the second, Julien started the third by banging an 0-2 fastball off the wall in left-center field for a double. But after a Polanco strikeout, Royce Lewis lined a grounder sharply to Bregman, who caught Julien trying to advance and tagged him out after a brief run-down. Kepler then struck out on a beautiful curveball from Verlander to end the inning.

After impressively getting Altuve to pop out to start the third, Ober had a slide slip out of his hand that hit Bregman. He then threw a middle-middle changeup to Alvarez, who does not miss such pitches. 3-0 Astros.

That spelled the end of Ober's outing. Kenta Maeda was warming prior to Alvarez's home run, and entered to start the fourth. It is unclear whether Ober would have been allowed to go longer had he kept the score 1-0, but in any event Maeda worked a scoreless fourth. He pitched around a single and walk to Martin Maldonado, but got Altuve to ground out to end the frame.

Unfortunately for the Twins, Verlander had found his command by that point and started mowing down hitters with ruthless efficiency. Taylor was mercifully hit with a pitch behind in the count in the fifth, but Julien and Polanco struck out on curveballs to end whatever threat that represented. 

The Astros added insurance in the fifth. Bregman singled and Alvarez drew a walk. After a Tucker lineout, Abreu popped up to left field. However, Wallner was shading Abreu to the gap and couldn't it down, allowing the fourth run to score. Chas McCormick then singled sharply to Wallner, who came up firing to nab Alvarez at home. Abreu deked Kirilloff into cutting the ball off to retire him at third while Alvarez score the fifth run. It is hard to say if Wallner's throw would have been in time, but it certainly looked like there was a chance.

Chris Paddack took over for Maeda in the sixth and pitched a perfect inning. Good timing, because Verlander was out of the game after six. Wallner led off the seventh with one of his customary hit-by-pitches, Jeffers singled, and after two strikeouts, Polanco launched a Hector Neris fastball for a three-run homer. Lewis then followed with a homer of his own to cut the lead to one.

Unfortunately for the Twins, Alvarez was due up the next inning. After Paddack retired Bregman on strikes, Rocco Baldelli brought in Caleb Thielbar to face "Air Yordan." Thielbar has struggled with the home run ball, and Alvarez doesn't care who pitches to him. A curveball was left up just a little, and the Astros' DH crushed it to make it a two-run game.

This was crucial not just for its impact on the game, but the rest of the series. The Twins purposely did not carry Kody Funderburk this round, mainly because the Astros lefties don't have much in the way of platoon splits. If Thielbar was supposed to represent the Twins' counter to Alvarez/Tucker, that didn't get off to a great start. It will interesting to see whether Thielbar gets another crack at them.

Another key play happened after Abreu walked. Trying to advance on a wild pitch, Jeffers gunned him down as he appeared to coast into second Correa seemed to deke Abreu by motioning for Jeffers not to throw, then made a quick tag for the final out.

The Twins threatened again in the eighth, with Correa delivering his second hit, a leadoff double against Bryan Abreu. But Wallner and Jeffers struck out, while Willi Castro grounded out sharply to Altuve to end the frame.

Ryan Pressley pitched a 1-2-3 ninth for the save.

The good:
Polanco took good swings all night and looked more comfortable at third, making a nice spear of Tucker's line drive in the fifth.

Lewis got his first hit since his second home in game one against Toronto, and made it count with a long home run in the seventh.

Paddack was sharp, retiring all four batters he faced.

The Twins got to Neris for four runs and forced ace reliever Bryan Abreu to throw 29 pitches.

Correa had two hits and was again impressive in the field.

Jhoan and Duran did not have to pitch, while Abreu and Pressley did, portending a potential advantage in game two.

The bad:
Ober made two bad pitches, and paid a big price.

Maeda was dinked and dunked into allowing his two runs, but clearly wasn't the shutdown reliever he had been with the Dodgers.

Julien made his crucial baserunning mistake after his double to start the third. He may have thought there were two outs, or he just lost focus. Either way, it cost the Twins while Verlander was still finding his command.

What’s Next: Pablo Lopez (11-8, 3.66 ERA) faces off against Framber Valdez (12-11, 3.45) as the Twins look to even the series.
Postgame Interviews: