Arbitrary Thoughts: Justin Topa

RHP Justin Topa
Age on Opening Day 2026: 35
Service Time: 5 years, 44 days

2023 Salary: League Minimum
2024 Salary: $1,250,000
2025 Salary: $1,000,000
2026 Salary: $2,000,000 team option ($225,000 buyout)

Background:
A wandering soul, Justin Topa was originally drafted back in 2012 by the Reds, but didn’t turn pro until the Pirates selected him in the 17th round the following year. Since then, he’s pitched everywhere, appearing with four organizations and the Independent Rockland Boulders before becoming a Twin before the 2024 season. His best year was in 2023, when he put up a 2.61 ERA in 75 games for the Seattle Mariners. He then landed with Minnesota in the Jorge Polanco trade that winter.

2025 Season:
Topa entered 2025 as a wild card: his previous success in the Pacific Northwest made him an intriguing arm. Yet, he missed nearly all of 2024 with nagging ailments, only moonlighting with the Twins for three games at the end of the year. His 2025 was… fine. The cursory numbers hold up under scrutiny—a 3.90 ERA, with peripherals more or less in agreement that he was cromulent—but Topa was unreliable in situations that mattered. His -1.64 WPA was the fourth-worst among qualified relievers. FanGraphs credits him with 12 “shutdowns” and 12 “meltdowns”, outings in which a pitcher accrued or lost 0.06 WPA or more. As you'd guess, a good reliever has more of the former than the latter.

2025 Stats: 54 G, 60 IP, 68 H, 18 BB, 49 K, 3.90 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Twins Depth at his Position (Right-Handed Reliever):

• Cole Sands - 40-man roster
• Cody Laweryson - 40-man roster
• Pierson Ohl - 40-man roster
• Thomas Hatch - 40-man roster
• Michael Tonkin - Arbitration eligible
• Triple-A: Travis Adams, Cory Lewis
• Double-A: Darren Bowen, C.J. Culpepper

Summary:
There are certainly more names that could be here, but it’s unclear at the moment how the starting pitcher clog will play out. Marco Raya or John Klein could factor into the bullpen. So could David Festa, though mainly because of health concerns. 

Why the Twins Should Pick up His Option:
Topa is a unique case, in that the Twins possess a team option for $2,000,000 with a $225,000 buyout. He’s the only arbitration-eligible player on the team in this boat. The onus is entirely on them to bring back Topa, although they could choose to decline the option and still tender him a deal for arbitration, if they so desire.

Topa is more interesting than your average 34-year-old coming off a mediocre year. He throws from one of the lowest right-handed arm angles in the game (10 degrees), which allows him to potentially maximize a unique sinker/cutter/sweeper pitch mix. As such, his groundball rate in 2025 was high, his barrel rate was low, and he commanded his arsenal well enough to walk fewer batters than average. That’s a useful combination of skills.

Why the Twins Should Not Pick up His Option:
All of those stats are nice, but they’re only descriptive of style, not necessarily of effectiveness, and the sum of Topa’s parts add up to make a mediocre reliever. His 2023 was great, but his stuff has backed up since then, furthering a significant platoon struggle against lefties. We’re not talking about a youngster looking to figure it out. Unless something changes, Topa would be the second-oldest player on the 2026 Twins. For a team interrogating every aspect of their payroll to squeeze value out of every penny, $2,000,000 for a likely average reliever is too rich. 

There's a Third Option?
The Twins could also choose to deny the option but retain Topa's rights and send him through the arbitration process. Now, that would be a very strange thing to do, and it's unclear whether it would save them money, but it is a possibility. 

Projection: I’m 50-50 on whether Topa stays.

In ordinary times, $2,000,000 for a reliever with some interesting traits would be a worthwhile gamble. Minnesota once gave $1,800,000 to Blake Parker before the 2019 season. These are not ordinary times. Early indications point to a stingy offseason that could very well pick off the rest of the meat remaining on the rotting carcass referred to as the “Minnesota Twins.” If the team doesn’t have Griffin Jax money, then they sure as hell don’t have Justin Topa money.

What do you think about Justin Topa? He’s one of the tougher arbitration decisions this year, and the known totals on the team option could alter how the Twins handle him. Does he stay? Or will he go?