Setting the Record Straight About Kyle Gibson's Career

[DocBauer]

Let me say this right up front, Kyle Gibson is NOT one of my all time favorite Twins, or Twins pitchers. And in no way am I arguing he is anything resembling a top of the rotation stud pitcher. I am also not stating I expect him to be re-signed or stating he should be. But I am so frustrated with some of the opinions vs reality of his career in Twins gear I felt compelled to post this.

 

The only thing Gibson is truly guilty of is failed expectations. He was a top college pitcher with a high floor and pretty nice ceiling who slid in the draft to a college injury. And expectations for a franchise starving for a top SP followed him from day one.

 

He pitched well, had TJ surgery, and was having a really nice 2013 comeback season in the minors with virtually everyone wanting/demanding a ML promotion. He debuted the second half of 2013 with less than great numbers:

 

W/L ERA VS IP H BB SO

2-4 6.53 10 51 69 20 29

 

For a rookie, coming off a missed season, perhaps tiring, poor numbers shouldn't be shocking, though they were disappointing.

 

2014 was his first full season in the majors, barely missing "rookie" status by a single IP. In 2015 he was the Twins pitcher of the year when he improved everywhere but in the W/L area. In 2016 he imploded, as did the team as a whole. And yet, it seems a lot of people forget how bad the Twins were in 2016 and want to almost hold him single handedly responsible for such a poor year, IMO. (Perhaps this is due to expectations, perhaps because he remains a holdover from that season). His early 2017 was equally poor before demotion, a re-set, and a very strong second half to 2017. He then carried over his strong second half of 2017 in to 2018.

 

His first full 5 seasons of MLB, without 2017 splits, just overall season numbers:

 

YEAR W/L ERA GS IP H BB SO

 

2014 13-12 4.47 31 179.1 178 57 107

2015 11-11 3.84 32 194.2 186 65 145

2016 6-11 5.07 25 147.1 175 55 104

2017 12-10 5.07 29 158 182 60 121

2018 10-13 3.62 32 196.2 177 79 179

 

In short, 3 1/2 seasons out of 5, as at least a ML average pitcher with 1 1/2 poor seasons. I'd call that a win!

 

In 2019, coming off the best season and a half of his career, he seemed perfectly poised as a veteran presence in the rotation to help lead tne rotation. Instead, he battled a bad illnessm lost weight and strength and struggled some to start the season before settling in and pitching at a relatively quality ,level for a contending team until his recently reported illness. An illness that is rather serious, and perhaps career and life altering. And despite that, and a recent inflation of some numbers, he bas still performed as at least a ML average SP, especially for the AL.

 

W/L ERA GS/G IP H BB SO

13-7 4.76 30/28 155 167 50 151

 

Once again, none of this is to declare that Gibson is a special, top of the rotation SP. And those who have already made up their mind on him, and his career, will not be influenced by anything here. And how much of a priority he should be in the off season is very much open regardless. Treatment and life style changes may allow him to regain strength and control his condition to continue his career, with the Twins or another organization. Perhaps he will decide to retire at this point. Nobody knows and to predict anything at this point would be very premature.

 

But to dismiss him as some failed prospect with a poor career is just not fair or accurate. And I just wanted to share this as a reality check.