How to Improve the Twins Bullpen

[twins1095]

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The Twins Bullpen Now and Going Forward:
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The Twins bullpen is their obvious weak-point--there is some promise though

 

I personally think Rodney is at best a league average closer and probably something somewhere below average.  I think he’s going to cost the Twins games this year and I think he already has. 

With that being said, I’m not sure the Twins have the best group in the league...but Trevor Hildenburger, Ryan Pressly, and A. Reed are doing a pretty solid job as the 7th/8th inning guys.  While Taylor Rogers and Zach Duke have been inconsistent as spot/situational relievers, I think both have enough track record where they are *okay* in their role too.  If any other bullpen pitcher is in, the Twins are already in trouble. 

 

Help On The Way Should Improve Depth

 

The Twins do have help on the way, Ervin Santana returning from injury which will push a starter into the bullpen and should give the Twins a good 4th/5th/6th inning guy to come in and get the ball to Hildenburger/Pressly/A. Reed.  Further, potential contributions from Trevor May (especially) and also Michael Pineda could give the Twins high-impact arms that would allow the Twins to pretty much have the 6th-8th innings covered between May/Hildenburger/Pressly/Reed. 

 

Potential Talent in AA and AAA

 

In their system, the Twins do have a little bit of talent, but I’m not sure there are any guys that you could realistically project to really dominate in a way that would put them on this big league squad before rosters expand. 

AAA: At Triple A, there are a few interesting names although I’m not sure if any can be counted as sure-fire future high-leverage/late-game/closer type relievers.  The Twins bullpen at AAA is actually really good.  Nick Anderson, Jake Reed, John Curtiss, and Gabriel Moya are all names that could eventually find their way onto the Twins 25 man roster that have had success at at the minor league level--I’m just not sure which players and when. 

AA: At Double A, Tyler Jay has struggled with injuries, but is the Twins former 2015 1st round pick and is putting up really good numbers, however he’s struggled with injuries this year and been limited in innings.  If Jay can stay healthy for a few months, he’ll likely get called up to AAA pretty quickly and pretty quickly to the majors after that.  

Jay doesn’t have true closer type potential, but he could be a valuable 5th/6th/7th inning guy to set up the late-inning game guys and a tool that the Twins can use as a situational left-hander--potentially a better Duffey per say. 

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Gabriel Moya
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Moya is a LHP who put up a 0.77 ERA/0.77 WHIP in 58 innings at AA in 2017.  He allowed just 30 hits (4.6 H/9) and just 15 walks (2.3 BB/9) while striking out 87 (13.5 K/9) and limiting home runs allowing just 2 (0.3 HRs/9 innings).  He’s also had success in limited innings at AAA this year. 

 

Unfortunately, Moya hasn’t been able to translate this success to the majors yet with a 7.15 ERA in 11.1 innings at the end of last season (straight from AA) and beginning of this season after impressing in spring training. 

 

Extremely small sample size, but it suggests that Moya isn’t ready yet.  At just 23, he’s got plenty of time to develop as a reliever and I hope the Twins give him every chance to do so.  I’m not sure he’s got closer potential, but I think he does have the potential to be a guy you could look to in high-leverage setup situations.

He would be a great option as both a LHP specialist for the Twins and another guy they can throw in their late-inning mix.  The Twins should look to give him some seasoning time at AAA and hopefully give him another shot sometime after the All-Star Break. 
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John Curtiss
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Curtiss is another guy that’s dominated the minors, but hasn’t been able to translate it to success in the majors.  Curtis has really good career minor league numbers with a 2.96 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 7.7 H9, 3.1 BB9, 11.5 K9, 0.5 HR9, etc.  He throws hard enough to be interesting with a FB running 93-98 and has some potential with his offspeed pitches too. 

 

Last season between AA/AAA in 49.1 innings, Curtiss allowed just 23 hits (4.2 H9) 0 home runs (0 HR9) 22 walks (4.0 BB9) 68 K’s (12.5 K9) with a 1.45 ERA and 0.912 WHIP. 

 

Like Moya, Curtiss struggled after getting called up at the end of last season for a cup of coffee and also in a spot appearance this season.  However, the raw numbers and stuff is intriguing.  At only 25, Curtiss is definitely another guy that the Twins should watch and hope performs a lot better when he gets a chance after the all-star break sometime this year and solidifies himself in Spring Training next season. 

Curtiss is no sure thing, but he’s another guy that could be an above average option for the Twins next to their current options. 

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Nick Anderson
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Anderson is an older prospect at 27, but he started late at 24 after a few years in independent leagues.  He’s had minor league success at just about every level posting a career 1.63 era - 0.844 whip and 28 saves in 138 career minor league innings.  His peripheral stats are: 5.6 H9, 2.0 BB9, 0.3 HR9, 10.7 K9.  He’s been old for every level he’s played at so he should be succeeding, but he’s certainly done that and more showing both the ability to limit hits, miss bats, keep the ball in the park, and good control. 

 

Last season at A+/AA in 54 innings he allowed just 32 hits (5.3 H9) walked just 10 (1.7 BB9) didn’t allow a HR (0 HR9) and struck out 57 batters (9.5 K9) leading to a 1.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 11 saves. 

Those numbers have continued to AAA this year, in his first stint he’s pitched 14.1 innings allowing just 8 hits (5 H9) 4 walks (2.5 BB9) striking out 20 (12.6 K9) with a 0.63 era and 0.84 whip. 

 

This means that Anderson has only been getting better as his competition gets better--a good sign for him.  It’s hard to find a good scouting report for what kind of “stuff” Anderson has, he’s 6’5 and long which is the prototype for pitchers and has had success at every level and has arguably been the most productive reliever in the Twins system over the last few years.  Anderson turns 28 in July, with his age and obvious advanced feel for pitching the Twins should look to promote him as soon as possible.  He might just be a diamond in the rough. 

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Jake Reed
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Reed has made good impressions in spring training for a few years now, but his 2017 season was delayed by a shoulder injury that hampered his MLB debut plans. He allowed one run (on a HR) in six innings with four walks and eight K’s this spring in MLB camp. He’ll be a big part of Rochester’s bullpen to start the 2018 season, a phone call away.

 

Reed’s got a blazing fastball and throws extremely hard while also possessing capable secondary pitches.  He reached AAA extremely quickly at 23 years old part way through the 2016 season.  He looked to be poised to start strong and eventually move into the Twins bullpen last season, but his development last season was largely stalled by injuries.  He’s been plagued by injuries this season and only pitched 3.1 innings, although nothing that should keep him out super long-term.  He’s another guy Twins fans should be watching.  If he can string together a few healthy productive months the Twins will likely call him up. 
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Tyler Jay
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Jay has struggled with injuries, but is the Twins former 2015 1st round pick that the Twins converted to reliever at the beginning of the 2017 season.  Unfortunately, his development has really been slowed by injuries over the last season + and so it’s tough to say how well that experiment is going.  If Jay can stay healthy, he’s a talented LHP that could be a middle innings guy and specialist against left-handed hitters.  If Jay can play that role well, the Twins will have a valuable piece they can add to their bullpen even if that role is smaller than some other roles. 
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Those are the 5 names to watch in the system for both the 2018/19 season and beyond

 

[twins1095]

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Trevor May: X-factor
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2015 Season--Success both as a Starter and a Setup Man

 

May’s been injured for the last season plus so he might have fallen off the Twins radar, but he was a little bit of an interesting player before his injury.  In 2015, as a starter outside of 1 dud right before he got transitioned to the bullpen he had a 0.1 inning 5 run dud--eliminated that dud will make his numbers look better, but be a lot more indicative of how well he was generally pitching that season.

 

In 14 starts and roughly 80 innings May’s numbers were:

 

3.83 era - 1.30 whip - 8 K’s/9 - 2 BB’s/9 (4 K/BB) - 9.7 H’s/9

 

The Twins then asked May to transition to a bullpen role and outside of one dud of an appearance, May pitched 34.1 innings

 

2.38 era - 1.20 whip - 9.8 K’s/9 - 1.85 BB’s/9 (5.3 K/BB) - 8.45 H/9

 

From the bullpen, May’s FB played in the mid 90’s and he was able to use that fastball combined with a variety of breaking and offspeed pitches including a curve to pitch successfully in a lot of high-leverage situations--even leading to conversations about May eventually closing.

 

So during this season May flashed somewhat similiar to Kyle Gibson or Jake Odorizzi type performance as a starter or a high-leverage 7th/8th/9th inning reliever. 

 

At just 25, Twins fans and the team was pretty excited to have this versatility and where it would lead. 

 

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2016 Season: Disappointing Surface Numbers That Hide Success, Injured

 

May started 2016 operating out of the bullpen and his numbers were definitely a little bit disappointing before getting hurt with a 5.27 ERA.  However, he actually wasn’t as bad as that ERA looks.  He allowed less than a hit per inning pitched (39 in 43) and struck out 12.6 batters per 9 innings (60 in 43 innings).

May had a stretch of 5 appearances in mid-may where he pitched 3.1 innings and allowed 14 hits, 10 runs, and 4 home runs.  I know every pitcher has bad stretches and if you take that sample out his numbers are going to be a little bit better than they should be.

 

However in his other 39 appearances and 39.1 innings pitched May’s numbers look a lot better:

 

3.45 era - 1.05 whip - 12.7 K’s/9 - 3.7 BB’s/9 - 3.45 K/BB - 5.8 H/9
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What Kind of Pitcher is May?

 

No pitcher is going to always consistently be great and relievers numbers can be extremely skewed by a single bad stretch.  The Twins got the latter May in 90% (39-44) of his appearances and the awful May in that 5 game stretch.  It’s obvious there was some mechanical issue or other issue going on during that time period and once you adjust for that outlier you get much closer to the May that the Twins got in the majority of his outings.

 

I would definitely take a guy who can offer a sub 3.4 era and get a ton of strikeouts and be really tough to hit late in innings if you told me that 9/10 times he would perform like that.

 

The Twins hope that May returns at some point this season.  As a reliever May has some games where he drastically implodes, however during 92% of his outings as a reliever in 2015 and 16 (70 out of 76 appearances) The Twins got a guy who pitched at:

 

3.00 ERA - 1.1 WHIP - 11.3 K’s/9 - 2.8 BB’s/9 - 6.9 H’s/9 in 73.1 innings
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May Returning To Form Would Make Bullpen Look A Lot Better

 

The Twin’s bullpen is better than it has been, but overall it’s still a weakness for the orginazation and Rodney isn’t the long-term answer at CL either.  The Twins do have a few interesting bullpen arms on their major league roster in Trevor Hildenburger, Ryan Pressly, and maybe Addison Reed and/or Taylor Rogers.  However, if May can return to form...I’d feel a lot more comfortable with the bullpen next season with May in the group. 

 

May/Hildenburger/Pressly as 7th/8th inning options with Reed/Rogers playing depth roles would be a really solid group to set up a potential closer solution whoever that may be next year.  Further, I wouldn’t be afraid to let May attempt to grab a closer spot IF he can return to his pre-injury form and establish himself in that way htis year. 

 

With that being said, I think the Twins should try and bring May back this year in a reliever role...over the offseason and spring training they can try and stretch him out into a starter to see what he can give them as he flashed an ability to be a solid #4ish type guy.  This should allow him to compete with Gibson, Odorizzi, and others for the 2 spots behind Romero/Berrio/Gonsalves, but also give the Twins an arm they can count on in the bullpen.