2018 Minnesota Twins ZiPS Projection

[Bob Sacamento]

For those of you you don't know, Dan Szymborski of ESPN puts out a yearly projection model of each club.  Thes ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

 

A lot of love for Buxton's defense with 15 defensive runs saved and a 3.2 WAR considering he's projected for only a 90 wRC+, and a comp to Adam Jones at this age isn't a horrible one.  On the pitching side, Berrios is projected to be the ace with a 8.86 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 110 ERA+, and a 3.3 WAR with a comp to a flashback of a young Dave Stieb.

 

Full Projection Available Here

 

[nytwinsfan]

Assuming he stays healthy, I'll take the over on Buxton because I think he'll hit better than that. I'd also definitely take the over on Polanco and Rosario and probably also (to a lesser extent) on Mauer. I'd take the under on Castro/Garver and Sano (given his injuries and off field issues) and probably Ervin Santana as well. The pitching staff is suprisingly not bad. Now imagine substituting a 4 or 5 WAR Darvish for Slegers and you have an actually good rotation.