Building a lineup

[goulik]

Responses to Chiefs random thoughts included a lot of discussion about the line up especially Joe Mauer batting third which led me to look at the stats and think about what determines a lineup. I am going to explain how I would build a line up and then place our current players in that line up. If you don't like my ways or line up, feel free to criticise with this rule: you have to give your alternative. Here are some thoughts to get the topic started:

 

My leadooff guy needs to have speed and a high on base percentage. He is patient and draws walks, sees a lot of pitches so the rest of the order has an idea what's cooking, and sets the table by getting on the base pads. When he gets there he is a legitimate threat to steal. No power is needed for this guy.

 

Batting second is another speed guy but less elite. He should have some pop in his bat and needs to outrun the three and four batters. He also needs a higher OBP. Another table setter for 3-4 hitters. He can sacrifice bunt better than most on this team.

 

Hitting third is my best hitter. This is probably the highest ball in play guy, is the highest average guy, and he has the ability to hit home runs. He chases those 1s and 2s around the pads. He can hit the sacrifice flies, advance the runners and get on at a high clip.

 

Batting fourth is my RBI machine. This is the highest rated slugger on my team. Hrs, doubles, and RBIs are the result of this guy. He might be slow footed and he probably is one of my worst defenders because I pay him to drive in the runs.

 

Fifth through seventh are my guys fading average and slugging abilities from the numbers threes and fours they are hitters that protect my number four from being intentionally walked while enhancing the lineup by batting opposite hand from the guy before, driving the ball, creating runs, etc...

 

8 is my worst hitter. He is on the team for his defence and is probably a catcher but maybe is a short stop.

 

Hitting ninth is one of my worst hitters with the most speed. If he gets on he needs to be able to stay ahead of my first and second batter.

 

Having said all this, where do I bat guys this year? Lets start with Sano in the 4th spot. He belongs there for the next eight years. (I hope)

 

Mauer is not hitting well enough to be number three but looking at the stats and past history, I am not ready to put Hicks or Rosario (highest averages) third either. By the numbers, Hicks one and Rosario two looks solid but Dozier three? Nice power but not high enough average for me. To be honest looking at the numbers, this year I would have Mauer third too! I don't like it but it's what I got.

 

Now with Mauer and Sano set I build around that. Hicks/Rosario leads off, Dozier second. Plouffe is fifth. Rosario/Hicks and Hunter are 6-7 and Suzuki is batting eight. That puts my short stop batting ninth which for now looks to be Escobar. On days Nunez gets the start maybe he is 6-7 and Rosario/Hicks is ninth. If Robinsons in the lineup that day, he's ninth.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

There was a link floating around about how the best way to construct a lineup. Basically, it's not that critical. But if a team is using OPS, which it suggested, then it basically recommends using the highest OPS guy to bat 2nd, the biggest power guy at 4th, then just fill in the rest 1-9 in order of OPS.

 

So, day to day, the Twins don't really have it too far off, with one really big exception.

 

Of all the Twins regulars, only Escobar and Suzuki are outperformed by Mauer in OPS. But I think the sky would open if people saw Mauer hitting 7th, so I'd maybe just move him to 5th or 6th. So one idea 4th-9th against a typical right hand starter would be 4-Sano, 5-Mauer, 6-Hunter, 7-Rosario, 8-Escobar 9-Suzuki.

 

There are probably some other advanced stats that correlate better to run scoring than OPS, but OPS is better than AVG, OBP or RBI. Mauer probably shouldn't be hitting third. He doesn't strike me as having a big ego, so I don't know what the hold up is for moving him down. His past batting titles just aren't doing the team much good in the third slot right now.

[Pardon My Dinger]

1. Mauer

2. Dozier

3. Sano

4. Plouffe

5. Rosario

6. Hunter

7. Escobar

8. Suzie

9. Hicks

 

Sano is the best hitter on this team. Dozier needs to be less of a solo artist. Things change, though, when you can put Buxton in there. Nonetheless, I think this team needs a guy to cleanup more than anything.