Article: Trading Away: The Position Players

[Shane Wahl]

Download attachment: Willingham.jpg This is the time when people often make wild trade speculations. I've tried not to do that here, but rather propose who could be traded and what is a realistic return. The Twins can do very well here if they are willing to be sellers.

 

The Twins are going to have to make key decisions about who to keep and what they can get for 2014 and beyond. In what follows, I lay out moves that could be made for the short- and long-term as the Twins try to figure out their future. I am starting with position players as these guys should be first on the trading block.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

The big four are:

 

--Josh Willingham (rationale: Arcia)

--Justin Morneau (rationale: stopgaps in Colabello and Parmelee; could be re-signed anyway)

--Trevor Plouffe (rationale: don't want to part ways, but Sano sticking at third or a stopgap player to fill in here makes Plouffe a tradable asset)

--Ryan Doumit (rationale: Herrmann and Pinto)

 

Relevant playoff contenders with low OPS at these positions:

 

--3B: New York Yankees (.615), Pittsburgh Pirates (.638)

--1B: New York Yankees (.696), Tampa Bay Rays (.800, but falling rapidly)

--C: Cincinnati Reds (.617), Baltimore Orioles (.634), New York Yankees (.640)

--LF: New York Yankees (.660)

--DH: Tampa Bay Rays (.682), Baltimore Orioles (.700), New York Yankees (.709).

 

Clearly, the Yankees have holes all over as they deal with a number of injuries and some quickly fading stopgap players. The Orioles and Rays also appear twice. Finally, two National teams make the list, but I am going to remove the Reds from consideration of Ryan Doumit, because his value comes from his ability to catch, hit and fill in as the designated hitter.

 

Some potential pairings include:

 

Willingham-Yankees

Plouffe-Pirates, Yankees

Doumit-Orioles, Yankees

Morneau-Rays, Orioles, Yankees

 

I realize that "top prospects" as in top 100 or even top 200 are going to be off-limits in exchange for these guys. But, as someone who analyzes the Twins' system and has a "Top 60" list, I find often find quite a bit of value in players on individual team lists who rank from 11-30. Any such list will be volatile. Here are five guys from each of the four teams above who are not on many teams' top ten lists and often fall between 12 and 20 or lower.

 

For comparison's sake, in the Twins system this would mean players like Danny Santana, Tyler Duffey, Matt Hauser, Nate Roberts, Niko Goodrum, Danny Ortiz and the like.

 

New York Yankees:

 

Nik Turley, LHP, starter, 23 (AA/AAA this year)

2013 AA: 4.90 ERA, 64.1 innings, 71/33 K/BB (AAA: 1.50, 1, 6.0, 4/3)

 

In the Twins system: likely headed to New Britain

 

 

Bryan Mitchell, LHP, starter, 22 (A+)

2013 A+: 4.74, 76.0, 62/34

 

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers

 

 

Dan Camarena, LHP, starter, 20 (A)

2013 A: 6.34, 49.2, 36/13

 

Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids

 

 

Jose Ramirez, RHP, starter, 23 (AA/AAA)

2013 AA: 2.76, 42.1 50/15 (AAA: 4.50, 4.0 5/4)

 

Twins system: likely headed to Rochester

 

 

Nick Goody, RHP, reliever, 21 (A+)

2013 A+: 3.00, 3.0 3/2. 2012 A: 1.09, 24.2, 40/7)

 

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers

 

 

Baltimore Orioles:

 

Tim Berry, LHP, starter, 22 (A+)

2013 A+: 4.54, 69.1, 66/17

 

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers

 

 

Zach Davies, RHP, starter, 20 (A+)

2013 A+: 3.63, 74.1, 58/19

 

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers.

 

 

Devin Jones, RHP, starter, 22 (AA)

2013 AA: 4.84, 67.0, 58/20

 

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers

 

 

Josh Hader, LHP, starter, 19 (A)

2013 A: 1.94, 60.1, 56/30

 

Twins system: likely head to Cedar Rapids.

 

 

Torsten Boss, LH, 3B, 22 (A)

2013 A: 221, .251/.333/.405 (.738), 11/2/5, 23/49, 2-3

 

Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids.

 

 

Tampa Bay Rays:

 

Tyler Goeddel, RH, 3B/SS, 20 (A)

2013 A: 239, .252/.345/.398 (.743), 6/6/4, 28/41, 13-17

 

Twins system: likely head to Cedar Rapids

 

 

Brandon Martin, RH, SS, 19 (A)

2013 A: 50, .244/.280/.422 (.702), 2/0/2, 2/10, 0-1

 

Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids

 

 

Felipe Rivero, LH, starter, 21, (A+)

2013 A+: 3.28, 61.1, 53/24

 

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers

 

 

Jeff Ames, RHP, starter, 22 (A)

2013 A: 2.47, 58.1 42/10

 

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers

 

 

Jake Hager, SS, 20 (A+)

2013 A+: 242, .290/.344/.353, 10/2/0, 18/36, 9-16

 

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers.

 

 

Pittsburgh Pirates:

 

Vic Black, RHP, reliever, 25 (AAA)

2013 AAA: 2.62, 24.0, 33/11

 

Twins system: likely headed to Rochester

 

Nick Kingham, RHP, starter, 21 (A+/AA)

2013 A+: 3.09, 70, 75/14

 

Twins system: likely headed to New Britain

 

 

Adrian Sampson, RHP, starter, 21 (A+)

2013 A+: 5.56, 66.1, 37/12 (2012 numbers in A ball included a 9.3/9 K rate)

 

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers

 

 

Max Moroff, SH, SS, 20 (A)

2013 A: 248, .228/.350/.351 (.701), 9/1/5, 39/40, 4-9

 

Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids

 

 

Alex Dickerson, LH, 1B/RF, 23 (AA)

2013 AA: 216, .238/.285/.417 (.702) 17/2/5, 13/51, 3-5

 

Twins system: likely headed to New Britain

 

 

There are 20 players of varying worth and perfomance, but I think the Twins should mostly focus on pitching. As general manager would I trade all four? Likely, yes. A good return would be a couple starting pitchers, one reliever, and one infielder.

I think this review casts some reality over the trade outlook for these Twins players and that reality is not bleak by any means.

 

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