I've been reading (and partaking in) some awesome debates on Twins Daily lately. One of my favorite topics has been the discussion about whether to trade Plouffe for a C/SS and open up 3B for Sano. I have also enjoyed reading and thinking about topics such as whether Hunter should be re-signed, whether Hicks should play RF next year, etc.

I decided that I would look at some statistics regarding the Twins offensive production and try to pinpoint exactly what the Twins biggest weaknesses are. The statistics I chose are Fangraphs's WAR and wRC+. This decision is somewhat arbitrary, but I think these two statistics are the best at gauging overall value. My goal is to examine where Twins players (with at least 100PA) line up with other players (also with at least 100PA) at their position. I let Fangraphs decide which players qualified for which position, thus sometimes multiple players qualify at multiple positions. I also examined where a few players would be if they switched positions. For each player, I will give their WAR, wRC+, rank, and percentile at each position they qualify for.*

The Data:

Kurt Suzuki: -0.3 WAR (53/54-4th percentile at C), 58 wRC+ (44/54-20th percentile at C)

Joe Mauer: 0.0 WAR(38/54-31st percentile at 1B), 91 wRC+ (34/54-39th percentile at 1B)

Kennys Vargas: -0.5 WAR(18/22-23rd percentile at DH, 46/54-17th percentile at 1B), 75 wRC+ (20/22-14th percentile at DH, 46/54-17th percentile at 1B)

Brian Dozier: 3.2 WAR(4/50-94th percentile at 2B), 122 wRC+ (9/50-84th percentile at 2B)

Trevor Plouffe: 2.4 WAR(12/52-79th percentile at 3B), 110 wRC+ (18/52-67th percentile at 3B)

Eduardo Escobar: -0.6 WAR(43/48-13th percentile at SS, 66/75-13th percentile at LF), 80 wRC+ (29/48-42nd percentile at SS, 60/75-21st percentile at LF)

Eduardo Nunez: 0.4 WAR(28/48-44th percentile at SS, 12/22-50th percentile at DH), 92 wRC+ (17/48-67th percentile at SS, 15/22-36th percentile at DH)

Danny Santana: -1.2 WAR(48/48-2nd percentile at SS), 43 wRC+ (43/45, 8th percentile at SS)

Eddie Rosario: 1.2 WAR(22/75-72nd percentile at LF, 22/53-60th percentile at RF), 100 wRC+ (38/75-51st percentile at LF, 28/53-49th percentile at RF)

Shane Robinson: 0.2 WAR(48/75-37th percentile at LF), 67 wRC+ (66/75-13th percentile at LF)

Aaron Hicks: 1.5 WAR(20/49-61st percentile at CF), 103 wRC+ (22/49-57th percentile at CF)

Torii Hunter: 0.9 WAR(28/53-49th percentile at RF), 99 wRC+(29/53-47th percentile at RF)

Miguel Sano: 0.8 WAR(9/22-64th percentile at DH), 160 wRC+(2/22-95th percentile at DH)

I also examined where a few players would rank at different positions:

Miguel Sano: 0.8 WAR(24/50-54th percentile at 3B), 160 wRC+ (2/50, 98th percentile at 3B)

Aaron Hicks: 1.5 WAR(19/53-66th percentile at RF), 103 wRC+ (26/53-53rd percentile at RF)

Torii Hunter: 0.9 WAR(7/22-73rd percentile at DH), 99 wRC+ (13/22-45th percentile at DH)

Conclusions:

Overall, I have to say I'm disappointed with almost the entire Twins offense. Only Dozier and Sano are top 10 talents at their respective positions, Plouffe is a borderline top 15 third baseman, and if we consider the top 30 players the "starting-level" talent at each position (15 players for DH), no other player is in the top half at any position (although it is possible Rosario could be if I had only allowed players to qualify for one position). Again using 30 as an arbitrary cutoff for being considered "starting-level", the Twins do not have a "starting-level" player at C or 1B. At SS and all 3 outfield positions, the best player we have is rated in the 20s. Clearly, something needs to be done about this offense.

It is curious to see that moving Hicks to RF would actually increase his positional rank when it comes to WAR. This must be because RF contains a lot of below average fielders. Once we consider that Hicks's defensive will probably improve even more with the shift away form center field, it looks like he could be a top 15 talent in the corner.

It appears that Sano has the bat to be a truly elite player at 3B or DH, while Plouffe may not be as strong offensively as many (including myself) believe. In my opinion, the Twins would be wise to trade Plouffe for a top 20 catcher. Of course, they could also throw in some prospects to make this happen.

Hunter is currently our 3rd best outfielder, but Buxton also deserves a starting chance. Arcia is also out of options next year and will only be able to DH if Plouffe is traded. Add in the fact that Kepler could debut sometime next year and it seems if Hunter comes on for another year, it should be as a 4th or 5th outfielder. I don't think we really need him for his production, but I can't speak about intangibles. Maybe they could sign him to be a player-coach who mainly just sits on the bench. There are worse uses for a bench spot.

I really don't want to start another Mauer war, so all I will say about 1B is that it looks like we are in trouble. The good news here is that we don't have a true replacement for Mauer (sure Plouffe or Sano could play 1B, but neither of them is actually a first basemen. Likewise Kepler is primarily an outfielder. The only player the Twins have on the 40-man that is primarily a first baseman is Vargas and his offense has been worse than Mauer's). It is still possible Mauer turns it around, it is possible our young hitters develop into 3-4-5 types so we can move Mauer down in the lineup, and Mauer's contract should not prevent Terry Ryan from extending some of our young talent. We are not the only team with a bad contract, so there is no reason Mauer's play needs to sink this team.

Overall, it seems like this offense has a way to go before it becomes that of serious a playoff team. I think we need to see top 10 production at at least 2-3 positions and top 20 production at another 3-4 before the Twins make it out of the first round of the playoffs. This season has been fun to watch, and I'm excited to see where this teams goes in the next few years. Thanks for reading!!

*I acknowledge that the statistical analysis used here is far from perfect. For example, WAR is accumulated differently at different positions, so looking at the WAR of a player who has played multiple positions (or looking at the WAR of a player who could change positions), is not a fair measurement. In addition, there are players who qualify for multiple positions, meaning the 30 "starting-level" players at different positions may contain some overlap. As a result, a player rated int he 40s could still be top 30 at their position when only considering each player at one position. Nevertheless, I feel as though these statistics provide some insight into the nature of the Twins offense.