Well, Gibson isn't likely to post an ERA of 9 all season. I'll concede that point. But a career BABIP of .306 for a guy that gets 6 K per 9 is going to give up a ton of baserunners. And a 12% HR/FB rate seems concerningly high to me. Especially given that his GB/FB ratio has been trending the wrong way for the last two years. He actually allowed more fly balls than ground balls last year, which was a first for him, most likely at any level. Want to have some fun with sample size? Take away Gibson's first half of 2015. He posted a 2.85 ERA in 113 2/3 IP and everything was right with the world. Other than that 3 month stretch, he has posted a 5.17 ERA in 475 2/3 IP. So, ask yourself, which is the "real" Gibson and which is the fluke? My take is that the real Gibson is a guy with an ERA north of 5.