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yarnivek1972

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Everything posted by yarnivek1972

  1. yarnivek1972
    I would agree that of the 3 Buxton is probably the lowest risk, simply because his defense is always going to be a huge part of his contribution. That said, his peak is/was still substantially lower than Simmons and Kiermaier. If I only attempted one, he would definitely be the one I would try to do. Nothing prevents negotiating a deal mid-season next year either. That policy was an artificial excuse of the previous regime. I still say wait and at least see how they start next season. Right now, a much higher risk of an extension falls on the Twins side IMO. It will even out after next year, or at least by midseason of next year.
  2. yarnivek1972
    Kiermaier posted a 7.3, and Simmons a 7.0 bWAR before cashing in. So, no. The numbers say “not yet” IMO. Odor and Yelich’s pre-contract bWARs weren’t as good as Buxton’s this year. But given their inconsistency since, it seems to reinforce the strategy of waiting. The Twins might be able to afford being wrong about one of them. They certainly can’t afford to be wrong about all 3. By that I mean if the Twins extend all 3 for the next 5 years and none of them live up to it, the franchise is destroyed for the next ten years. As I said, those 3 simply haven’t been good enough to earn a long term commitment yet IMO.
  3. yarnivek1972
    Re: Andrelton Simmons, Christian Yelich, Rougned Odor, Kevin Kiermaier. Simmons, Yellich and Kiermaier all posted seasons with at least an fWAR OF 4.5 before cashing in. Buxton’s best is 3.5. Rosario’s best is 2.2. Sano’s best is 2.3. That’s a rather substantial gap IMO especially since much of Buxton’s WAR value is still tied to his defense. Odor’s struggles since cashing in would seem to be exactly the reason why you DON’T give the money to a young guy that hasn’t posted a 4.5 fWAR. Point being if those are the names people are using to say the Twins should lock Buxton, Rosario and Sano up NOW, I am even more confident in my position in waiting until next year.
  4. yarnivek1972
    IMO none of them are substantially more expensive after next year, year by year. That is, their first arb year isn’t going to be substantially more after next year than the Twins might be able to sign them for now. And if the Twins wait one more year and still sign them for 5 years, it’s an extra year under control while they are still in their 20s. And even at that point, they would be hitting free agency coming off their prime years. I am not at all convinced that Sano is a generational type talent. According to some, that’s the kind of payday he’s looking for. He has a LONG way to go in terms of plate discipline to get there. Look at his K rate and BB rates over his career. Not much difference year to year. Same really with HR rate and extra base hit rate. Sure, he’s already a great hitter, an all star level talent if he plays third base. I’m not sure that’s true if he plays first or DH’s from here on. Not every year anyway. Lots of first baseman post an OPS better than .860 every year. He needs to get a lot better for me to be willing to commit long term. Rosario and Buxton need to prove that they can do what they did in the second half for a full season. If they can, they deserve the money.
  5. yarnivek1972
    Yes, they all have 2 years plus of service time. But none of them has shown they can put it together over a full season. You have about a half season of performance to base their value over the next 5 years. Better to wait until next offseason IMO. Better gauge of what they can do by then.
  6. yarnivek1972
    Molitor is still 61 years old.
  7. yarnivek1972
    If the Red Sox make a managerial change it is pretty likely that whoever it is will be someone of some standing. In other words, someone with the clout to hand pick much of his staff. That’s the way it is with major market teams. Those are the types of guys they usually pick.
  8. yarnivek1972
    Like Carl Willis.
  9. yarnivek1972
    I don’t know how you would consider Tom Kelly an outsider. He has been employed exclusively by the Twins for over 45 years. By the time he became manager, he had 15 years in the organization.
  10. yarnivek1972
    Yes, Carl Willis’ best year as a player was 1991. But he is a highly regarded pitching coach and has been for a long time with 3 different organizations. And, as I mentioned, has produced 4 Cy Young winners under his guidance. I know your post wasn’t specifically addressed to me, I’m just saying that I think he is extremely qualified and might be available.
  11. yarnivek1972
    I don’t see it. Falvey’s previous manager was Terry Francona, very much a player’s manager. I know Pickler played in the minors for several yearss, but I think the players look at him as the computer geek. I could see Pickler being bench coach.
  12. yarnivek1972
    Nearly all of Buxton's injuries are trauma. Buxton is a young, healthy man. He will heal and be fine. The injuries to worry about are repetitive motion or stress injuries. Like Miguel Sano's.
  13. yarnivek1972
    How about Phil Hughes for pitching coach? Most expensive one, EVER. But seriously, there is some speculation about the future of John Farrell in Boston. Could mean The Big Train, Carl Willis is out too. 4 Cy Young winners in 12 seasons as a MLB pitching coach.
  14. yarnivek1972
    Would love to see Bobby Cuellar return to the organization. You know, the guy Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano credit for their success. Little old though.
  15. yarnivek1972
    Allowing a franchise owner to have a say in the selection of arguably the most visible member of the franchise is grounds for his/her removal? I doubt there is any owner of any pro franchise who doesn’t ultimately give a thumbs up or thumbs down to the head coach/manager selection.
  16. yarnivek1972
    FWIW, the story on the official site suggests that there still may be changes to the coaching staff.
  17. yarnivek1972
    I wish that little video of that bunt attempt started earlier. Under the rules of MLB, the catcher has to be in that little box behind the plate until the ball is released from the pitcher's hand. That's why (up until this year) you would see catchers on IBB start behind the plate (or at least with one foot in that sometimes imaginary box) and then jump to catch the ball. It doesn't appear that the catcher started behind the plate. Of course, if the pitcher stepped off, all bets are off. In that instance the hitter could be cited for interference. Regarding Molitor, I'm kind of "whatever" about it. IMO, good managers can win games and bad managers can lose games. Most have minimal impact. IMO, Tom Kelly won some games. His biggest strengths were developing young players and putting his players in a position to succeed. Conversely, Ron Gardenhire IMO struggled in both of those key areas and as a result I feel he cost the Twins a lot of games. Can you say that any team over-acheived under Gardenhire? I see Molitor as a minimal impact type.
  18. yarnivek1972
    Kyle Gibson posted nearly identical numbers in 2016 and 2017.
  19. yarnivek1972
    I wouldn’t bet on Boshers being DFA (actually, non-tendered). Unless the Twins think they will need the roster spot. There’s really no downside to tendering him (he’s still pre-arb). If you don’t like what you see in ST (or perhaps like what you see from others), release him then.
  20. yarnivek1972
    Only if they voluntarily retire. If Hughes retires due to medical reasons, he still gets the money. Then insurance covers most of it.
  21. yarnivek1972
    TBH, there is really no one I am prepared to make a long term commitment to at this time. No one has really done it over the course of even a 162 game season yet. Sure, Longoria signed a long term deal like two weeks knto his career. That’s Tampa’s call. There is no reason to do that. There is a reason why the MLBPA really doesn’t fight harder for bigger compensation to inexperienced players. It takes that long to get any kind of read on expected performance.
  22. yarnivek1972
    You do realize Molitor is over 60, right? You said, “in my 50s”.
  23. yarnivek1972
    I’m curious to know where some are getting the idea that the Twins offered Molitor a one year deal. The strib and LEN 3 says they are working toward a multi-year deal and likely at this point discussing the rest of the staff.
  24. yarnivek1972
    St. Louis is right there every year on a mid market budget. Cleveland.
  25. yarnivek1972
    Great minds...
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