caninatl04

It seems pretty clear at this point that a realignment is on the horizon in Major League Baseball. Different ideas have been shared, but the most popular and most sensible one is for baseball to realign their divisions so that the teams are in closer proximity to each other. Such an alignment would probably not help any team more than the Seattle Mariners, who currently have to play 6 series in the state of Texas; more than 2,000 miles away from Seattle.
 
These ideas have arisen in light of the rumors of baseball expanding to 32 teams, with one team likely to be in Portland, Oregon and the other somewhere in the Eastern time zone. Such expansion will necessitate realignment anyhow, so it's possible that the MLB will wait until then to do anything, but in reality, they could start sooner. Indications are that the goal is for the Oakland A's and Tampa Bay Rays to move into new stadiums before expanding. However, negotiations are slow. The Rays are committed to playing at Tropicana Field through 2027 and have made little progress on what to do after, though they have begun to explore a disastrous idea to split time between Tampa and Montreal when their lease on the Trop is up.
 
The current travel for the players is grueling, especially for the teams in the west, who are vastly outnumbered by teams in the central and eastern time zones. Instead of waiting for the expansion to happen, which will probably be close to a decade from now, if not longer, the MLB could realign AND shorten the season much sooner. Here's how:
 
The first step is making the rules uniform. This realignment will jumble up the league, so the DH will either have to be universal or banned first.
 
Then, the MLB could align their divisions as follows (basically, just take the divisions as they are now and shuffle the deck a little bit)
 
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Pacific: Seattle, Oakland, San Francisco, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers
Southwest: San Diego, Colorado, Arizona, Texas, Houston
Upper Midwest: Kansas City, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Minnesota, Milwaukee
 
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Rust Belt: Detroit, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh
Metropolitan: Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Boston, Philadelphia
Southeast: Washington, Baltimore, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Miami
 
I like this arrangement for a number of reasons, it's not perfect, especially for the southwest, but it's better than what they have. Also, there was no choice but to break up either Chicago's teams or KC and St. Louis. It's unfortunate, but something had to give.
 
As for the length of season, this schedule would make a ton of sense:
 
Vs Division opponents: 15 games vs each X 4 teams = 60 Games
Vs Rest of Conference: 6 games X 10 teams = 60 Games
Interleague: 6 games X 5 teams =30 Games (Play a 3 game series at home and on the road vs an entire division)
Total of 150 games
 
As I mentioned, it's not likely that the MLB will do anything until expansion happens (which I'm pretty indifferent about, honestly). However, in order to give the players a more reasonable travel schedule, and to give fans more chances to travel and see their team in nearby stadiums, this realignment makes a ton of sense.

I will be the first to admit, I was absolutely stunned by the Twins poor start in 2018 and am equally as stunned by their dynamite start to 2019. All of you on Twins Daily are aware of this, but just to reiterate for the sake of context:
-The Twins came off of a 103-loss 2016 season to nab the second Wild-Card spot in 2017 with a record of 85-77.
-The Twins had an emerging group of youngsters such as Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sanó, José Berríos, and Eddie Rosario that seemed poised to improve after strong finishes to 2017 (with the exception of Sanó, who as an All-Star but missed the last two months due to injury)
-The Twins also were anchored by veterans such as Brian Dozier, Kyle Gibson, Eduardo Escobar, Joe Mauer, and Jason Castro, who were all instrumental to the Twins' run at the end of 2017.
-The Twins then added veterans Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke to shore up a weak bullpen that waved goodbye to Brandon Kintzler at the 2017 Trade Deadline, when the Twins were below .500 and looked to be out of the race. They also traded for Jake Odorizzi, who the brass liked and believed had untapped potential (he was a former top prospect, after all) and signed starter Lance Lynn, who had a very good track record in St. Louis.
The result? A 7-4 start, followed by a 3-13 stretch that included an 8-game losing streak, en route to a disappointing 78-84 finish to the season. It also was the gut-wrenching goodbye to fan-favorites Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar, in addition to Duke, Rodney, Lynn, and, to my surprise, Ryan Pressly.
I, along with many other Twins fans, held on to hope for dear life until the Twins were swept in a three-game series in Kansas City after the All-Star Break. At that point, I knew and finally, reluctantly, accepted that it was over. A once-promising season thrown down the drain. However, looking back, is that final 78-84 mark actually surprising? And is it actually bad? Let's stop and consider.
It all started before the season started, when Ervin Santana, the ace of the Twins in 2017, delayed his surgery until February and would not be able to start the season on-time. As it turned out, he didn't throw a pitch until August. Then, the news broke that Jorge Polanco would miss 80 games with a suspension for testing positive for Stanozolol, a banned substance. The Twins were surely upset, but not panicked, as Lynn was signed and Escobar became the regular shortstop and hit very well.
In April, the Twins had three consecutive games postponed due to weather, which ended up giving the Twins 4 days off before going to Puerto Rico, where they played in a 16-inning game that resulted in a win vs the Indians. Then the 8-game losing streak began.
The barrage of setbacks then continued when it was announced that Jason Castro was going to miss the rest of the season. Jason Castro was not a huge weapon offensively at this point, but his value defensively was immense. The Twins turned to veteran Bobby Wilson, who almost gave up baseball before the season, to receive a bulk of the playing time alongside Mitch Garver, who was still very unpolished.
Byron Buxton then proceeded to make 2 trips to the Disabled List and ended up only playing in 28 games all season. That opened the door for Ryan LaMarre and, eventually, Jake Cave. Cave showed an ability to hit the ball, but he and Robbie Grossman in the outfield on a regular basis is clearly not ideal and a substantial downgrade from having Buxton in center, even if he put up mediocre numbers at the plate.
Then June rolled around and the Twins were treading water, fighting for their lives to stay alive. The Twins were forced into making the nuclear decision to send a struggling, and by some reports disinterested Miguel Sanó not to Triple-A, but to Single-A for a complete reboot. His struggles opened the door for Ehire Adrianza to play shortstop every day until Polanco returned. Similar to Cave, Adrianza is a decent player, but he is not a healthy, productive Sanó. The more bench players that have to play regularly, the harder it is to win games.
To compound that, Addison Reed, who was solid for the Twins early, started to break down from overuse and spent a lot of time on the Disabled List. To this day, he has not regained his already-declining velocity and was just recently Designated for Assignment.
The Twins embarked on a late-June, early-July, 9-game road trip to Chicago (3 with each team) and Milwaukee. The Twins went 1-8 on that trip and were, in my mind and the mind of most, dead in the water. Then they went 9-2 on a homestead against the Orioles, Royals, and Rays right before the All-Star Break and were hanging on by just enough of a thread to keep me optimistic. Then the aforementioned Royals series happened and I knew what little hope was left was gone.
The last week of July saw the departure of Brian Dozier, most notably. Another reason for the Twins struggles was that Dozier was never able to get it going after having a hot first week in Baltimore and Pittsburgh with 4 home runs. It was all downhill from there, though a dramatic walk-off grand slam in the last game before the break provided one last thing to cheer about before his send-off to LA.
To summarize, here is what happened to the Twins in 2018:
-Injured starting catcher, who was replaced by a veteran backup.
-Injured starting center fielder
-Suspended starting shortstop
-Injured ace
-Injured relief-ace
-Declining starting second baseman
-Disinterested former-All-Star third baseman who had to be demoted and rebooted
All things considered, it is no surprise that the Twins underperformed in 2018. All told, perhaps 78 wins is not so bad after all. 2019 is off to a great start; this was the expectation last year, but we're getting it a year late! In my opinion, this team is better than the Opening Day 2018 team.

Over the winter, the Minnesota Twins invested heavily on their infrastructure throughout the organization. Not only were a handful of new coaching and developmental staff brought in, but new technology was introduced to generate more production out of the same players. We’re just a couple weeks into the 2019 season, but there’s some very promising developments that have taken place on the 25-man roster.
 
Any number of storylines could be generated from the early performances a handful of Twins players have put up. Without a bit more substantiation to the numbers though, I think it’s just worth noting some of the eye-popping production that has taken place thus far.
 
Jorge Polanco began his 2019 with a bang, becoming the 11th player in Twins history to hit for the cycle. Just a couple days later, he missed the feat by falling a double short. Through nine games, his 0.8 fWAR is tied for 8th in baseball, and is already half of his career best season (2017). A 51.6% hard hit rate is almost double his career average, and the contract extension is looking like a massive bargain for the Twins.
 
Mitch Garver owns the second highest fWAR among Twins position players, and his 16.7% barrels/plate appearance ranks 6th in all of baseball. He became the third player ever to hit two home runs off Jacob deGrom in a single game, and his offensive prowess looks as evident as ever. Behind the dish his defensive adjustments have been evident and generating extra strikes by presenting a stronger zone has seemed to show up plenty.
 
Jose Berrios has been as advertised. A dark horse Cy Young candidate, his 0.7 fWAR is tied for third in baseball among pitchers. Command has been sharper than it’s ever been, and the addition of a devastating changeup has him looking like a whole new level of lethal. Across three starts, he’s absolutely dominated the two better teams (Cleveland and Philadelphia), en route to posting a 2.18 ERA. He’s looked the part of a staff ace for a while, but the emergence to a true ace is something that would be more than welcomed.
 
Byron Buxton is familiar with slow starts, but 2019 hasn’t been anything close to that. He’s batting .292 and owns an .846 OPS through his first 26 plate appearances. Looking more aggressive at the plate, Buxton has sat on pitches to generate a career best 33% hard hit rate. He’s laid off the breaking ball down and away, and he’s ripping off doubles at an impressive pace. Staying healthy will remain a key focus here, but it looks like the breakout we’ve been waiting for is finally upon us.
 
We’ll need to wait for things to play out in order to draw any concrete conclusions this season. With over 150 games still to go, we’re just getting started. If any of these early indications for the Twins turn out to hold significant weight as the schedule draws on though, we should be in for quite the ride.
 
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We are inching closer to Opening Day 2019 and, don’t look now but, current forecasts make it seem plausible that the Twins will be hosting the defending American League (AL) Central Division Champions Cleveland Indians on March 28th at 3:10pm. The Thursday, Saturday, Sunday series will be the only three games of the homestand before they start their first road trip traveling to Kansas City, the new look Phillies, and the Mets of New York.
 
April (12 home, 13 away, 5 off)
Outside of three games versus the Phillies and five games versus the Houston Astros, the Twins have the opportunity to take advantage of an easy schedule in the first full month of the season. This includes a seven-game homestand versus the Tigers and Blue Jays in mid-April and six total games versus the Baltimore Orioles.
 
May (13 home, 15 away, 3 off)
Things get a little tougher in May as their first five games are versus Houston at home (2) and New York Yankees at Yankees Stadium (3). They will face a solid, but not great Angels (6) and Rays (2) team eight times throughout the month and will host the Brewers for two games towards the end of the month. The Blue Jays, Tigers, Mariners, and White Sox are also on the docket and will all be series the Twins really need to win.
 
June (12 home, 15 away, 3 off)
The third month of the year could be a pivotal month for the Twins as 16 of their 27 games come against division foes, and only three of those games are versus the Indians in Cleveland. That said, five games against the Rays and three games against the Red Sox at Target Field will be a challenge and, specifically with the Rays, could have Wild Card tiebreaker implications down the road.
 
July (12 home, 12 away, 7 off)
July will be another important month for the Twins as 13 of their games will be against teams who will likely be in the thick of the developing playoff race. Ten of those aforementioned games will be immediately following the All-Star Break in Cleveland for three games and hosting the A’s and Yankees for seven games. If they struggle during that stretch, then they have the opportunity of playing the White Sox and Marlins to end the month.
 
August (16 home, 12 away, 3 off)
The “dog days of summer” will be something the Twins look forward to this season...kind of (see below). They have a tough 10 game homestand where they will face the Braves (3) and Indians (4) followed by two games in Milwaukee. Outside of those nine games, the other 19 will be against teams who are currently projected for 74 wins or less according to Vegas.
 
September (13 home, 14 away, 3 off)
Uf-dah (why does my Grammarly recognize this as a word?). In the months final season, the Twins will have twelve consecutive games against teams who will likely be battling for a playoff spot, including six critical games against the Indians. The other six will be at Fenway and versus the Nationals at home. Unfortunately, these games occur earlier in the month which makes it less likely these teams have clinched anything at that point. This is by far the toughest stretch of the season and it comes during the most important time of the season. I should mention that they end the season with 13 games versus the bottom three teams in the division.
 
Notes of Interest
The longest homestand of the season is ten games versus August 2nd through August 11th versus the Royals, Braves, and Indians.
The longest road trip of the season is 10 games and 12 days, including a day of travel, starting May 29th and going through June 9th versus the Rays, Indians, and Tigers.
There must be some labor law I’m unaware of that teams will have at least one off day in a two-week period as the Twins play on 13 consecutive games at a few different points throughout the season.
That said, the Twins do have three different stretches of 26 games in 27 days including two such stretches that occur at the beginning and very end of August.
The most difficult stretch of the season was mentioned above, but what should be the easiest stretch of the seasons occurs in the 17 games leading up to the trip to Fenway. Those 17 games will be against the Rangers, White Sox, and Tigers.
 
Notable Promotions - follow the link for full list
March 28th (Opening Day) v. Cleveland - Twins Puffer Vest
April 27th v. Orioles - Twins Plaid Flap Cap
May 24th v. White Sox - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #1
June 15th v. Royals - Joe Mauer Day & No. 7 Baseball Cap
July 19th v. Athletics - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #2
August 3rd v. Royals - Joe Nathan Hall of Fame Bobblehead
August 4th v. Royals - Joe Nathan and Jerry Bell Hall of Fame Pins
August 24th v. Tigers - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #3
September 7th v. Indians - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #4
 
Breaking down a schedule is an interesting exercise. Not that you’re ever going to feel bad for someone making millions of dollars, but you can definitely appreciate how grueling the Major League Baseball season is. What are you looking forward to this upcoming Twins season? Any games or series you have your eye on right away? Let me know if the comments!

We are now at the point in the Major League Baseball calendar where exhibition games have commenced, teams are looking at how to fill out their 25-man roster, and the regular season is on the horizon. Although a few marquee free agents remain, I’m at a point where I feel good about how what could potentially be baseball’s worst division, is going to play out. The incumbent division winning Cleveland Indians are ready to defend their throne and it’ll be on a challenger to emerge.
 
Including current PECOTA projections (as of February 26, 2019) next to predicted records, here’s how this writer has the standings for the American League Central playing out:
 
1. Minnesota Twins 92-70 (83-79)
 
No team has done more in the division to take strides forward than the Twins for 2019. While that’s great in a vacuum, no team was also able to make bigger moves than Minnesota as well. I’ve dug deeper into why I think this is realistic in a secondary piece here, but the front office must be hoping what they’ve done is enough. Despite what’s being billed as a “wait and see” type approach, I’m all in on the Falvey and Levine being vindicated in their decision making.
 
2. Cleveland Indians 89-73 (96-66)
 
Quite opposite of the Twins, arguably no team within the division has gotten worse than the Indians. Cleveland loses Michael Brantley as well as Carlos Santana. They’ve replaced the latter with Edwin Encarnacion, but there’s no outfield to speak of, and significant reliance on repeat performances. Trevor Bauer, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor all posted career year’s in 2018, all while Cleveland mustered just 91 wins. Lindor will miss the beginning of the season, and despite the rotation still being among the best in baseball, it’s hard not wondering what else to fall in love with surrounding this team.
 
3. Chicago White Sox 73-89 (70-92)
 
One of the trendiest teams in baseball right now, the White Sox are being lauded for their stellar farm system. There’s no denying that Eloy Jimenez is a stud, and he’s backed by names like Kopech, Cease, and Robert. The first starter on that list is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery though, and there’s always an incredible amount of volatility when it comes to top prospects (ask Twins fans about that.) Manny Machado would’ve moved the needle for this franchise, but instead of going all in, Kenny Williams signed friends and family hoping that would be enough. Chicago will get there, and an 11-game jump in the win column from 2018 is no small task, but that’s about where the fun ends.
 
4. Kansas City Royals 69-93 (72-90)
 
Welcome to the dreaded middle ground. It was great for the Royals that they popped up and won a World Series, as the fanbase could be looking at mediocrity or worse for quite some time. The big-league club is void of any real star potential, and the farm system is among the worst in baseball. Kansas City can’t spend big with it making any sort of a difference, but they’ve also yet to hit on any prospects that put them in a better light going forward. If you’re a Royals fan, the highlight of the season is June 3rd when Dayton Moore will have the second overall pick in the 2019 Major League Baseball Draft.
 
5. Detroit Tigers 62-100 (67-95)
 
If Kansas City is considered the dreaded middle ground, then Detroit is trending in a much better direction. The Tigers have a strong farm system headlined by pitching stalwarts, and they also hold the 5th overall pick this summer. There’s still plenty of questions surrounding both Michael Fulmer and Matthew Boyd, and Detroit is hoping to see Nicholas Castellanos take yet another step forward, but there’s some building blocks here. Miguel Cabrera is on his way to Cooperstown, but Niko Goodrum has provided some immediate intrigue in the infield. This team won’t be good in 2019, but they could certainly flip the script in the coming years.
 
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We’re quickly approaching the close of the 2018 calendar year. While there’s still multiple months before Spring Training commences in sunny Fort Myers, the Minnesota Twins talent acquisition has come in the form of two moves. Both players found themselves on the free agent market by way of non-tender decisions from their previous ballclubs. We saw a patient strategy in 2017 but employing it again could be to the team’s detriment.
 
Despite how the Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison signings worked out for Falvey and Co. last offseason, there’s no denying that both moves made a ton of sense. Morrison represented a power bat the lineup could certainly use, and Lynn allowed the starting rotation an ability to be bolstered by one of the premiere names on the market. Both players were inked to team-friendly dollars, and there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal.
 
It appears that the Twins are content employing a similar level of patience this time around. The problem, however, is that the circumstances had them in a position ripe to jump the market. We’ve heard that a $100 million payroll could be the bar to clear, and much has been made about the uncertainty of both Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton’s development. The former is a number that should represent an embarrassing effort towards competitiveness, while the latter strikes this blogger as a backwards way of thinking.
 
Right now, we’ve yet to see Sano and Buxton put it all together over a consistent period. Minnesota obviously has reservations about whether it will happen for the two former top prospects but planning for anything other than full speed ahead comes with quite a few issues.
 
First, Sano and Buxton will never be cheaper than they are right now. Whether they explode or not, arbitration raises will continue to increase their rate of pay. Should things go according to plan, the dollars will mount considerably in the next few seasons. Waiting for the next wave of prospects would signify something like a ten year rebuild and comes with the same caveats as to whether the prospect status matures at the highest level. Pairing the current duo with external talent is also just a drop in the bucket in terms of dollars at this point, and nothing hamstrings an organization with zero dollars committed to 2020 and beyond.
 
You can certainly look at the free agent landscape as it stands today and wonder where those extra dollars would be spent. Craig Kimbrel isn’t the most appealing reliever at his ask, and Bryce Harper probably wants little to do with Minnesota. However, we’ve heard about plenty of relievers that the Twins were in on to this point and they simply didn’t want to extend a second year. These are the avenues that strike me as poor planning. Outpacing the competition by showing a willingness for an extra season, or a few extra millions, is something this team is in the perfect position to do. The Twins shed a ton of salary prior to 2019 and have literally nothing on the books for the season after. By being aggressive on some second-tier names, there’s no denying the impact could have been felt in the wins column. At this juncture, there’s a dwindling list of those types left, and the suitors remain a vast and competitive field.
 
As referenced from the get-go, there’s still time left to sort this all out. If Nelson Cruz, Cody Allen, and Zach Britton all end up in Twins Territory the panic button can be put away. When C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop are joined by the like of a Zach Duke or Matt Belisle type however, we’ll be vindicated in wondering what was taking place at 1 Twins Way.
 
Regardless of any team’s payroll flexibility, it’s always fair to view deals through a sensible market value meter. That said, there’s nothing wrong with being the aggressor in acquiring talent when you have resources on your side. For years the Twins have been in a situation that extra spending didn’t make sense because a level of competitiveness wasn’t going to be impacted by anything but a total overhaul. Now is not that time, and each additional acquisition can play a key part in a result greater than expected.
 
Waiting for something to fall into your lap has its purpose, but dictating your future often bears greater fruits.
 
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Recently there were two rather significant developments regarding the 2019 Minnesota Twins roster construction. With the deadline to add Rule 5 Draft eligible players to the 40-man roster now in the rearview mirror, we know how the organization handled the situation. Also, in the early stages of free agency, Jon Morosi reported that the Twins have had discussions with the Arizona Diamondbacks about dealing for Paul Goldschmidt. Both of those scenarios could be hints at what’s next from the front office.
 
Concerning the 40-man roster and Rule 5 decisions, the Twins added Nick Gordon, LaMonte Wade, and Luis Arraez to the fold. The first two were givens while Arraez makes a ton of sense as a great contact and average hitter for a team currently lacking talent up the middle. Still having two open spots on the 40 man, the front office decided to trade reliever Nick Anderson instead of keeping him around. Jake Reed, who was deserving of a September call up, will again be exposed to the Rule 5 draft, and former 1st round pick Tyler Jay was left out in the cold as well.
 
Given the openings on the roster there would have been no downside for Minnesota to add the likes of Reed and Jay, even if more moves necessitated their removal in the coming months. Bullpen help has been assumed to be a key area of focus this offseason, and the internal options being passed over could be somewhat of a hint.
 
The reality is that the Twins certainly could benefit from some top tier relief help. The starting rotation is in a much better place than any time in recent memory, but it’s still void of a true ace. The depth is there but expecting the group to compete with the best in baseball is probably a bit far-fetched. Add in the reality that the game has shifted to being reliever dominated, and Rocco Baldelli would certainly benefit from some elite arms out in the pen.
 
By deciding to forego adding internal options that would have signified depth, we may be able to assume that the intention is to truly aim high in relief. If the front office was going to target more middle-of-the-road relievers, having players like Reed, Anderson, or even Jay to slot in should things go south seems like a solid backup plan. If Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are shooting for the stars though, there should be a reasonable expectation that a backup plan becomes much less necessary.
Working from a place of familiarity the Twins and Diamondbacks were trade partners just last season when Eduardo Escobar was shipped out. Goldschmidt is the premiere first basemen available at this point, and even in the final year of his deal, would be an exciting option to replace Joe Mauer. The free agent market at the position is beyond underwhelming, and exploring a trade there sends a few signals.
 
Minnesota is clearly starting at the top by inquiring on Goldschmidt, and they’re also obviously exploring the trade market. Carlos Santana remains an ideal fit a rung down and comes with a bit more longevity provided to the club. What we can glean is that all options are being explored, and that the immediate sense points to Miguel Sano staying at third base.
 
Both discussed situations above help to provide some clarity with regards to how Minnesota may be viewing the 2019 season. Goldschmidt fits oddly as he’s on a one-year deal, but maybe the intention is to go for it and reload. While Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and the next wave of big prospects don’t seem to factor in before 2020, there’s plenty of talent here to make a run in the year ahead.
 
With the Cleveland Indians clearly approaching the end of their run, Minnesota is positioned to be next in line for consistency within the division. The infrastructure has been put in place by the front office and executing on the personnel would be the next logical step. There’s a ton of money to be spent this offseason, and there will be more to go around in 2020 and beyond. Putting the pedal down now could have the Twins looking like the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers, and that’s a team who made significant noise in the Postseason.
 
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When it comes to the Twins coaching staff I would like to discuss the hitting coach. I know there are a lot of opinions out there that say that these ballplayers are grown men, professionals, and they don't listen to coaches anyway or you are not going to change their mechanics this late in the game. The choice to retain Rowson is somewhat bewildering to me. The immediate success of the franchise has been pinnned on the potential of Sano and Buxton. these two players have regressed offensively since Bruno left and you could throw Dozier in on this even though he is not part of the future of this team. You can correct me if this is not exactly right but Rowson is known for working to the strengths of the batter or individual and not necessarily trying to "change" the swing. While I understand the philosophy on its own, it's a little hard to apply this if no strength exists. let's take Buxton for example. Fast. Power potential. Base stealing ability. etc. All true of Buxton but you have to make contact to put any of these potential strengths to use. brunansky may not have been the answer but it seems he was helping all three of these players while he was here, to some extent. It seems he probably helped with situational hitting, what to expect during what count and proceding the previous pitch and possibly pitch recognition itself. I guess what I am getting at, or I agree with is that mechanics are mechanics at this point. Leg kick, no leg kick. Hands high, hands low. etc. None of these things will help these guys hit a curve or a slider or how to work the count for the pitch they can handle. I look at someone like Molitor, he had to have a talent or method to be so successful.....find a guy like this who can teach these things while understanding not everyone can teach what they know. The current roster has a chance if Buxton and Sano can realize their potential. So the question is, do you really want more Rowson looking for strengths or someone who can teach how to hit the tough pitches? I am afraid the Twins are wasting another year of potential on these guys, and Dozier, he should give Bruno a call.

I feel like posting a little bit on my trip to Phoenix for the Arizona Fall League.
 
I arrived Thursday and was picked up at the airport by ashburydavid. Nice that he could take a day off from work to join his dad for a long weekend of baseball watching. Salt River, the team all the Twins prospects are on, had played earlier in the day, so we contented ourselves watching the evening game in Scottsdale. You can get good seats at the AFL:
 

 
The game itself between Scottsdale and Peoria was very crisply played. It was a 1-0 pitchers duel through 7 innings, before Peoria scored 3 more, and although the home team notched a couple on a ninth inning homer by first baseman Hall, this 4-2 outcome was completed in slightly more than two hours. Scorpions left fielder Trammell made a pair of very fine catches that might have kept the final score from being more lopsided. We had good luck in being seated near a few very talkative fans who kept us company during the game.
 
Friday we made our way over to Surprise Stadium for a Salt River Rafters game against the host Saguaros. By the luck of the draw I've been there for several AFL games over the years, and I think it's a nice one:
 

 
Travis Blankenhorn was the only Twins prospect who played today. He went 1 for 4 plus a walk, scoring two runs. Here he is, on deck - he sees his shadow, so six more weeks of AFL?
 

 
Blankenhorn made a nice defensive play in the sixth inning with an unassisted putout on a grounder before throwing to first to complete a DP. And here is his home run trot - coming around to score after his third-inning walk, when Sam Hilliard hit a homer, but it's still a trot. He also scored in the top of the sixth on a sac fly, after singling and then moving up a base at a time. He caught the pop fly that ended the 8-3 victory in 7 innings (scheduled as such, to avoid tiring the pitching staffs in advance of the Fall Stars Game coming up on Saturday.)
 

 
This is Salt River manager Tommy Watkins after making a pitching change.
 

 
After the game, Tommy caught us unawares, by noticing my son and me with Twins or Twins Cities related gear (me with my St Paul Saints shirt, ashburydavid with his Rochester Red Wings shirt and his TC Twins hat), seated down low as we were. He made a point of asking where we were from. Just a 30 second interaction, but it's clear why Tommy gets such favorable reviews from all who meet him - he is an outgoing guy, plain and simple.
 
Tomorrow we go back to Surprise for the aforementioned Fall Stars Game.

For years baseball played with shortstops that could cover a lot of ground and if they hit well it was a bonus - Marty Marion and Ozzie Smith made the hall like this. Mark Belanger was the glue of Earl Weaver's championship Orioles and Zoilo Versalles brought the Twins to their first World Series.
 
Now we masquerade SS with all the shifts but still we look at Lindor and Correa and other great gloves with great arms as prototype shortstops. Notice how many professional athletes began as Shortstops - that includes Sano. Because the best athlete was the SS. On a site called Dick's Pro Tips the little league teams are given this advise - "Arguably, this should be one of your best defensive players. The shortstop should show great range and the ability to field sharply hit baseballs. Choose someone who has an above-average arm, as many of their throws will be a great distance."
 
Some might argue catcher and they get a lot of points, but they do not have to move as fast and as many directions, catch hops, drives, popups, and bad hops. Nor do they turn DPs.
Think about what happens when a shortstop blows a catch, misses on a DP, or drops a pop up. We can put big oafs that hit Homeruns at 1B and even 3B, but not at SS. We can put good gloves with limited range at 2B (hate to say that since I played 2B), but at SS we want quickness, range, and arm. It is a position that demands a lot and is involved in a lot.
 
I bring that up because Polanco is really disappointing this year. I do not have a stat that tells me how much offense is needed to offset bad defense. He has now reached 50 Errors at SS, not counting other positions, in 3 years. Too many. His fielding percentage, his errors, and his defensive WAR are all near the bottom. If the Twins are going to move up in the standings, we have to move up in the quality of each position and Jorge is not cutting it right now. Do we have hope that will change?

Who's on second does not have the ring of who's on first, but it is a legitimate question. After my last two blogs puzzling over SS and 3B where we are below league average in fielding, we need some strength up the middle. I will not speculate on Dozier and his half year greatness routine because I do not see him coming back. I hesitate to speculate about Escobar which is a big fan favorite for every infield position, but he has now seen the bigger world and knows he can make some choices.
 
So there is Logan Forsythe. He has had 2700 ABs and has a lifetime average of 249 and a total WAR of 12.9 so he is not a terrible choice. He will not have the HR power of Dozier, but he should not have the 1/2 year splits that Dozier did either. His defensive WAR accumulated over 8 seasons is 12.9 - not spectacular, more league average. In fact, if you look closer, he accumulated just under 1/2 of that WAR in one really good year - 2015. If SS and 3B were great we could tolerate league average, but with league average being the highest of the three positions I am not sure that we can look at this as a championship infield.
 
Of course Polanco could slide to 2B or 3B and then we have to figure out SS, but I am not looking at signing or trading players in this essay. I want to see what is in the cupboard. Adrianza is our backup for all three positions. This year, according to Baseball Reference Adrianza has a -0.3 WAR for 2018. Good utility, but too much exposure is not good.
 
Who is in the minors - Petit is our fall infield call up. Gregorio is 33 years old and has a 0.1 WAR over parts of six years. I do not nominate him for second base full time. For the Rochester Redwings we had Alex Perez play 14 games and bat 244 and Taylor Featherstone played 55 and batted 167. I do not believe either of them is going to make MLB this next year. As a matter of fact I do not remember reading about them in TD minor league stories.
 
Travis Blankenhorn, who is listed as a prospect for reasons I do not know, is 2B in Fort Myers where he played 124 games and batted 231! And he was backed up by Alex Perez who hit 208. Not going here.
 
If we go down to Cedar Rapids Michael Helman in 27 games hit 355, Jordan Gore in 63 games hit 305, and Jose Miranda in 104 games hit 277. I do not know their fielding prowess, but I suspect the answer for next year is not at this level.
 
Those are the in-house answers.
 
So I do have to look at FA options - Machado and Donaldson are the best infield options, but not at second. Elvis Andrus is a possibility for SS or 2B, Brian Dozier is the person we know best, but I do not think Brian liked how things went this year so do not expect him back. Daniel Murphy is not going to leave the Cubs! DJ LaMahieu is coming from the Rockies - do you trust their stats?
 
My prediction - Logan Forsythe is the 2019 2B, but we better do something to increase the infield fielding! Maybe this will insure Mauer is back since we need a glove at 1B no matter how the person hits and Austin, Sano, Cave, or Rooker is not going to anchor the infield with their gloves.

As much of a disaster as 2018 has been for the Minnesota Twins, it's hard to look back and call it anything but expected. The reality is that injuries, suspensions, and ineffectiveness destroyed any possibility of a return trip to the postseason. Going forward however, the future is bright (I wrote about that here). The same foundation that was going to be relied upon this season remains key for the years ahead. That begs the question of who is there, and who are we waiting on?
 
While Paul Molitor and the combination of both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have earned some blame for their roster decisions this season, none of those three would be positioned to overcome the biggest elephant in the room. Experiencing lost seasons for both Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton was going to be a hill too steep to climb for this squad. It also represents that reality that each of those players remain integral to the future exploits of the organization as well. Although both of the top two names have sputtered, others have produced. Let's take a temperature check on where the core for the Twins youth is in relation to being able to provide a solid foundation for the future.
 
Eddie Rosario: Arrived
 
Somewhat of a knucklehead, maturity was arguably the greatest thing working against the Twins left fielder early on in his career. Posting just a .735 OPS and a 97 OPS+ (100 being average) through his first two MLB seasons, there was plenty of room for growth. Fast forward to today, and Minnesota has a legitimate All Star on their hands, as well as a top 20 player in MLB in terms of fWAR.
 
Since May 2017, Rosario owns a .296/.336/.518 slash line. He's still a free swinger going after pitches out of the zone nearly 40% of the time, but the 12.3% swinging strike rate is significantly lower than the roughly 15% average he was at in his first two years. After posting down numbers defensively in 2017, he's back to being a very good asset out there and the mental lapses appear to be few and far between.
 
Two years ago Rosario looked like a guy Minnesota would be questionable in offering a contract extension. At this point, they should make it a priority.
 
Byron Buxton: Still Waiting
 
There's no way to sugar coat it, 2018 has been an abomination for the Twins centerfielder. After winning a Gold Glove as well as the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2017, Byron has played in just 28 MLB games this season. He garnered MVP votes a year ago, and hasn't looked even close to the player that emerged down the stretch. Among batters with at least 90 plate appearances, Buxton's .383 OPS is second to last. Injuries and ineffectiveness is thew narrative here.
 
The flip side of this coin is that Buxton already has over 300 G at the big league level under his belt, and he;s yet to turn 25 years old. He's the best defender in the game when healthy, and that helps to soften the blow of an offensive impact that's yet to catch up. There's far too much talent here to stay down for long, but consistency and availability is a must. Getting him back at the end of the year, and playing games somewhere this offseason could be huge. Buxton has to be a cornerstone for the Twins going forward, and I'm still fine betting on that being the case.
 
Miguel Sano: Still Waiting
 
When analyzing Miguel Sano's output over the course of his career, there will never be a down time that doesn't coincide with narratives pointing towards weight. As he has ballooned at the waistline, he's been scrutinized for his play. While being out of shape never helps an athlete, I think the bigger narrative is the one Minnesota employed in sending the slugger to Fort Myers. This is a story of accountability, work ethic, and desire. Sano puts on weight when he chooses not to buy into those areas. He has flashed the ability to be Minnesota's best power hitter since Harmon Killebrew. Right now Miguel knows that, but it's up to him whether or not he wants to work hard enough to achieve that.
 
In his time back with the Twins since his hiatus on the farm, signs have been encouraging. Not only did he buy into a conditioning program enough to come back a more trim version of himself, but the plate appearances have been better as well. The hot corner doesn't look like a spot he's incapable of holding down, and the power potential there remains immense. Sano left a .203/.270/.405 line in the middle of June, and has compiled a .250/.368/.344 mark in his return. He was swinging through 16.1% of pitches, and has drastically dropped that amount to 11.4%.
 
We're still experiencing a small sample size here, but the returns remain good. This offseason, Sano is going to need to display continued buy in. This isn't a flash in the pan type of change, and it has the ability to be career altering. If he's able to close the book on who he was, and be this type of an athlete, then the sky remains the limit.
 
Max Kepler: Turning a Corner
 
Looked at as somewhat of a breakout candidate for 2018, this season has been filled with ups and downs for Kepler. He came out of the gates extremely hot in April, and then cooled significantly by June. Since July 1 though, the German native owns an .890 OPS and has launched six longballs amidst his 12 extra-base hits. On the year he's still hitting lefties better than righties, and his launch angle continues to be an area of promise.
 
Despite being outspoken regarding a desire to put the ball on the ground, it seems Kepler has bought into the reality that success is through the air. He very well could reach the 20 homer plateau for the first time in his career, and he's made significant strides in the plate discipline department. A deeper dive into batted ball numbers suggests that Kepler is getting fairly unlucky, and that should only help to fuel a late season burst.
 
Jose Berrios: Arrived, but Not Fully
 
Owning a 3.0 fWAR on the season, Berrios is currently ranked as the 15th best starter in baseball. The 3.51 ERA and 3.58 FIP are in line, and there's not a number he's put up that isn't a career best. What's truly impressive about that however, is we still aren't seeing the best of him. At just 24 years old, Berrios was invited to his first All Star game. His success has include four clunkers with 5 ER or more, and he's got another three starts in which he's allowed 4 ER. Expecting perfection each time out isn't realistic, but 36% of his starts lending themselves to significant improvement is a very fun thing to project forward.
 
Having kept home runs largely in check, Berrios has stifled one of his largest downfalls. Slight in stature, he's been able to get enough movement on his pitches to combat the throwing plane in which the ball travels from his hand. We've seen a lot of good starts from Berrios this season, and we've also been privy to opportunities for growth. Although he'll likely set career bests across the board this year, we're just scratching the surface. He's got the ability to round into a bonafide ace, and it's a development that Minnesota has craved for years.
 
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With the 2018 Major League Baseball draft in the rearview mirror, the Minnesota Twins have now brought more young talent into the organization. Despite not having the first overall pick this season, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were able to identify a handful of players that could be making an impact at Target Field in years to come. While this class seems catcher and college heavy, there's also a juggle of names already included in the Off The Baggy top 15 prospects.
 
Before diving into an updated, post draft list, here's a few key areas to check out first:
 
2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Draft Picks
 
Now that we have the foundation laid, here's who I have as the Midseason Top 15 Prospects for the Minnesota Twins:
 
15. Wander Javier SS
 
Coming into the season, I found myself incredibly high on Javier, thinking he could end up being the Twins best positional prospect not named Royce Lewis. Unfortunately, he's been handed a season ending injury, and despite the surgery not being on his throwing arm, the biggest setback is missing out on a year of development at 19 years old. By the time he's back on the diamond, Javier will be 20. He's going to need to pick up and go right away to regain his prospect status. There's an incredible amount of talent there, and counting him out would be foolish.
 
14. Tyler Jay LHP
 
The Twins 2015 1st round pick is now firmly entrenched as a reliever. After being bounced back and forth between starting and the pen, keeping him healthy has maybe been the largest challenge. In 2017, Jay pitched just 11.2 innings, a mark he's nearly doubled thus far in 2018. He's still at Double-A Chattanooga which is unfortunate, and the strikeouts have dipped to just 7.5 per nine innings. As a lefty, he can bring it, and profiles well in the late innings. He'll need to start putting up numbers indicative of that should he want to jump to Triple-A. At 24, it would be ideal to see him get time with the Twins this year, but that would require a significant breakout in short order.
 
13. Lewis Thorpe LHP
 
Starting the season healthy for the first time in more than three years is huge for the Aussie. After a solid display at High-A Fort Myers last season, he was jumped to Chattanooga to begin 2018. The ERA sits at a respectable 3.74, while his 10.2 K/9 is something Minnesota would love to see carry forward. The 1.528 WHIP is a bit out of hand, and it's reflective of a guy that allows a handful of runners to reach base. Thorpe is still just 22, and already at Double-A. If he continues to refine his approach, he'll jump back into the national discussion.
 
12. Blayne Enlow RHP
 
The Twins targeted Enlow with some of their early round savings in the 2017 MLB Draft. After appearing in 20.1 innings for the GCL Twins last year, he's spent 2018 with Low-A Cedar Rapids. The 4.46 ERA isn't ideal, but he's another guy giving up too much contact right now. A 1.718 WHIP is buoyed by an 11.5 H/9. He's only 19 and the stuff is still very raw. His bender is impressive, and the velocity probably has a bit of room to grow yet. If nothing else, this is a very good developmental year for the Louisiana native.
 
11. Akil Baddoo OF
 
There wasn't a guy I was more impressed with during spring training 2017 than Baddoo when it came to physical body work. He looked as if he'd at half of his 2016 self, and put on a ton of muscle. At E-Town last season, Baddoo posted a great 1.057 OPS across 33 games. Batting as the leadoff guy for the Kernels this year, he owns a .788 OPS. The power continues to play, and while the average has sunk a bit lower than you'd like to see, his plate discipline hasn't fallen off much. He's got a chance to be the breakout type, much like the next guy on this list.
 
10. LaMonte Wade OF
 
As a 9th round pick in 2015, Wade hasn't gotten the fanfare he's deserved until recently. Despite posting .840 + OPS numbers in each of his first two pro seasons, he really only began to be a name more commonly known. Now at Double-A Chattanooga, Wade owns an .837 OPS on the year, and has already hit seven longballs. If the Twins really wanted to test him, he could be up filling in for Byron Buxton right now. He's got a tremendous eye at the plate, and controls the zone well. There's a lot to like here, and the ceiling is higher than just a fourth outfielder.
 
9. Zack Littell RHP
 
Acquired by the Twins in a shrewd exchange that involved Jaime Garcia, Littell has shown exactly why he was the apple of Falvey and Levine's eyes. He had a strong Twins organization debut at Double-A last year, and had been great in 28 innings with Triple-A Rochester this season. His major league debut didn't go smoothly, but there's little doubt that he'll be back, and that he's a capable arm to count on as a rotation mainstay.
 
8. Trevor Larnach OF
 
The 20th overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft, Larnach is of a similar mold to Twins prospect Brent Rooker. The power potential is massive, and he absolutely destroys the baseball when making contact. Swing and miss is a bit less of a worry here, although his position is certainly going to be limited to a corner outfield spot. He used all fields in college, but rarely pulled the ball. Ideally you'd like to see him shorten up a bit, and be able to get around on big league pitching to his drive side. This was a safe pick for Minnesota, and the bat should absolutely play.
 
7. Brent Rooker OF
 
I still think Rooker ends up at first base long term, but he's not a liability in the Robbie Grossman sense when it comes to outfield play. After a slow start at Double-A, he's really come around of late. From May 7 through June 6 (29 G), he owns an .890 OPS with seven homers. Rooker's bat was always going to be what drove his promotions, and it's played as expected. The next piece of his game that has to be addressed is the plate discipline. A 66/14 K/BB at Double-A is only going to get wider as he moves upwards.
 
6. Alex Kirilloff OF
 
Coming off of Tommy John surgery, it wasn't so much a worry that Kirilloff wouldn't rebound, as much as it was about how the time off would effect him. The short answer has been, not much. While Royce Lewis got the early fanfare as the latest first round pick, it's Kirilloff who's been shining of late as well. His .978 OPS is comprised of 11 homers and 17 doubles through 55 games. It's been a heck of a return to the diamond, and the bat first prospect has been nothing short of exciting.
 
5. Stephen Gonsalves LHP
 
After dominating Double-A to the tune of a 1.77 ERA through four starts, Gonsalves was moved up to Triple-A. He owns a 4.13 ERA through seven starts, but the numbers are inflated by a few clunkers. His 10.5 K/9 is more than impressive, but it's the 5.5 BB/9 that still cause the Twins pause. Command has always been the last part of the puzzle for the crafty lefty, and it'll be the piece he needs to hone in before jumping to the big leagues.
 
4. Brusdar Graterol RHP
 
Now completely healthy, the Twins next flamethrower has been must see baseball on the mound for the Kernels. His few DL stints this year seem much more roster manipulation than genuine cause for concern. He's gone six trips through the rotation, and owns a 1.95 ERA in 32.1 IP. With a triple-digit fastball in his arsenal, the 11.1 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 suggest he could probably use a new challenge sometime soon.
 
3. Nick Gordon SS
 
While shortstop may not be Nick Gordon's longterm home, it probably works out better that way for the Twins roster construction. Yes, he faded down the stretch at Double-A last year, but he's been nothing short of exceptional in 2018. His .906 OPS across 42 games with Chattanooga earned him a bump to Triple-A Rochester. In 16 games since his promotion, he's hitting .350/.371/.467. The five home runs continue to drive home the notion that the nine in 2017 were real, and he could turn into a 15-20 longball guy at the next level. He should be the Twins Opening Day second basemen in 2019, and there's little reason to worry about it.
 
2. Fernando Romero RHP
 
It took just 21 innings at Triple-A for the Twins to decide that Romero was ready for the big time. His 2.57 ERA with Rochester came with some walks (4.3 BB/9), but the stuff was absolutely going to play. Since being in the big leagues, he owns a 3.96 ERA over seven starts (36.1 IP). He was lights out against some good teams in the early going, and he's thrown in a clunker or two as well. Long term, he still profiles as an ace, and pairing him with Jose Berrios should give Minnesota a solid one-two punch for quite some time.
 
1. Royce Lewis SS
 
After making it to Cedar Rapids to conclude his first season in pro ball, Lewis has torn up the Midwest League this season as well. Currently his OPS is down to .750, but it rested at .799 through 40 games just over a week ago. The power hasn't really shown up yet, but it should come in time. He has plenty of room to fill out and gain muscle, so there isn't much cause for concern. Expect him to hit High-A Fort Myers for the second half of the year, and tracking towards a 2020 MLB debut is very plausible.
 
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Tonight, the 2018 Major League Baseball draft gets underway with the first round. As a handful of amateurs begin their professional careers, the event is one of the highlights to take place during the calendar year. After a very good 2017 season, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine won't have the luxury of the first overall pick this time around. Last season, the front office put together what was considered a very strong draft. They'll look to replicate those results this time around.
 
A year removed from being selected, this day gives us an opportunity to look back on where the players taken in the first 10 rounds are at right now. With plenty of impact talent plucked off the board, Minnesota has been able to bolster the system as a whole by utilizing names from the 2017 class.
 
With just around a year of pro baseball under their belts, here's where the newest Twins currently find themselves:
 
Royce Lewis (1-1)
 
As the number one overall pick a season ago, the Twins hit the nail on the head with Lewis. He's excelled at each level in his young pro career, and should jump to High-A Fort Myers shortly after his 19th birthday. Lewis owns a .312/.359/.422 slash line for the Kernels this year, and has been nothing short of a superstar on and off the field.
 
Brent Rooker (1-35)
 
Rooker was going to be put on an aggressive path as a senior sign and bat first player. He was sent to Double-A Chattanooga to begin 2018, and could see time with the Twins as early as next year. The .245/.287/.420 line has room for improvement, but he's been on a tear of late. The power has played plenty for Rooker, and the next hurdle to overcome is plate discipline (59/10 K/BB).
 
Landon Leach (2-37)
 
Participating in Extended Spring Training, Leach has not played in 2018. With the GCL Twins last season, he posted a 3.38 ERA across 13.1 IP. He's still settling in on the mound having made the transition from behind the plate.
 
Blayne Enlow (3-76)
 
One of the steals of the draft, Enlow has been great in his young career for Minnesota. He's pitching with Low-A Cedar Rapids, and despite dealing with some injury issues, owns a 3.81 ERA across seven starts. He's got room to develop into a more swing and miss pitcher, but the early returns have been plenty promising.
 
Charlie Barnes (4-106)
 
Spending all of 2018 thus far at High-A Fort Myers, Barnes has been steady. He owns a 4.42 ERA and has turned in 38.2 IP across eight starts. His offspeed stuff remains some of the best in the organization, and settling in to his other offerings will be key to his development.
 
Andrew Bechtold (5-136)
 
Regarded as another savvy pick by the Twins a year ago, the Juco product was seen as a nice bat. He's struggling at Cedar Rapids this year, positing just a .471 OPS across 40 games. Coming off an .829 OPS at Elizabethton last year, there's plenty of reason to believe he'll right the ship. His alma mater Chipola, just repeated as NJCAA National Champs.
 
Ricardo De La Torre (6-166)
 
Another EST participant, De La Torre has not yet played in 2018. He turns 19 next month, and will be assigned to another short season team. For the GCL Twins last season, he slashed .268/.341/.359 across 42 games.
 
Ryley Widell (7-196)
 
Widell just turned 21 and is currently at EST with the Twins. He played for E-Town last year, and could find his way to Cedar Rapids by the end of the year. He's yet to pitch this season, but posted a 2.43 ERA across 29.2 IP in his first professional season.
 
Bryan Sammons (8-226)
 
After making it to Cedar Rapids in his debut season a year ago, Sammons has spent the entirety of 2018 there. He's made eight starts thus far, and owns a very nice 2.70 ERA. Although the strikeouts have dipped to a 7.9 K/9, he's been very good with command, allowing just 2.7 BB/9.
 
Mark Contreras (9-256)
 
Spending just seven games in Iowa to start the year, Contreras was quickly promoted to High-A Fort Myers. He owns a .797 OPS in 30 games with the Miracle, and he's continuing to develop in the outfield.
 
Calvin Faucher (10-286)
 
Faucher has spent time with both Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers this season. He earned an early promotion, but then scuffled in his first taste of High-A. On the year, he owns a 1.06 ERA with Cedar Rapids in 17.0 IP, and a 7.30 ERA across 12.1 IP with the Miracle. Pushing for more strikeouts and less walks will help him to even things out.
 
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We are just about two months into the regular season, and the Minnesota Twins are under-performing. When the Twins are pitching well, the offense is non-existent and when they are hitting well, the pitching has been bad. However, it is not all bad for the organization. The minor league system has been solid, with many of the organization’s top prospects playing like it. Like the past two seasons, this is a list of my top five prospects who should be promoted. Some of the top players like Stephen Gonsalves and Nick Gordon have already been moved up a level, so we'll see who will follow shortly.
 
In this list, I avoided putting players in their first year with the level. Because of that, I did not put Alex Kirilloff on this list, even though he has been the best player in the organization this season. Other players who were not added because of that are Zander Wiel, Tyler Wells and Brusdar Graterol. Perhaps they could be added to my next one in late July or early August if they keep performing.
 
Here is my list...
 
Honorable Mentions:
Tyler Jay, LHP, Chattanooga
Jordan Gore, 2B, Cedar Rapids
Bryan Sammons, LHP, Cedar Rapids
 
 
5. Ben Rortvedt, C, Cedar Rapids
 
Everyone knows how much of a fan I am of him. My last article for Twins Daily raved about Rotvedt as the catcher of the future. It has been an up and down season for the Verona, Wis., native. At the time I wrote my Rortvedt piece, the catcher was hitting .471 through his first four games of the season. But apparently I was the kiss of the death, as he went on a month-long slump. In a stretch that saw his batting average plummet down to .225 on May 10, Rortvedt only had eight hits in 54 at-bats (.148). In addition to his .148 batting average, his OBP slipped down to .286 and he had an OPS of just .624. After having three extra base hits in his first four games, he had just three during that 15-game stretch. But Rortvedt has since rebounded. In the three weeks (17 games) since the slump, he has hit .333 (21-63) with five of the 21 hits being extra base hits. His batting average has ballooned up to .276 with an OPS of .719. The 2016 second round pick has improved in every single area. His average has improved by 52 points, his OBP by 47 points and his OPS by an incredible 122 points. Despite his homer numbers being down a bit, his extra-base numbers are up. His strikeout numbers are up a bit, but I think it is time to move up the 20-year-old to Fort Myers.
 
4. LaMonte Wade, OF, Chattanooga
 
Wade is one of the more under-the-radar prospects in the Twins organization. With Byron Buxton on the disabled list once again, I wish they would put Wade up in the majors instead of rolling with Ryan LaMarre. The 24-year-old was drafted in the ninth round in 2015 and has been as consistent as any player in the system. After dominating the Florida State League in the last half of 2016, Wade played the entire 2017 season in Double-A Chattanooga. All he did there was hit .292 with seven homers and an OPS of .805. Wade started this season in Chattanooga once again, and has done as well, or maybe even better. Currently, his average sits at .289, but has struggled a bit since coming off the DL (1-11). However, the Baltimore native was hitting .305 before the injury with an OPS of .864. That is promotion worthy. In a weird stat, he has hit six homers this year after hitting seven in 2017, but Wade does not yet have a double. Gordon was promoted in May to Rochester, and I have a feeling the former Maryland Terrapin is not far away.
 
3. Andrew Vasquez, LHP, Fort Myers
 
Vasquez has pitched 1.1 innings with Chattanooga this year, but I do not count that as primarily being a member of the Lookouts. So, I am putting the 24-year-old as No. 3 on this list. I am a bit surprised he didn’t start the season with the Lookouts, even if he only pitched 35.2 innings with the Miracle in 2017. But the 24-year-old started this season in Florida, and has done even better. In 27.1 innings this season, Vasquez has a miniscule 0.66 ERA, along with a .210 batting average and a 1.06 WHIP. Last year, in his 35.2 innings, he had a 1.51 ERA and a .241 opponents batting average. His strikeout numbers are a bit down from last year, but still very good. In 2016, Vasquez struck out 52 batters in the 35.2 innings, and in 2017, he has struck out 30 in 27.1 innings. I know he was promoted to Chattanooga for a game, but then he went back to High-A Fort Myers. It is time to promote him for good. Chattanooga has a few relievers who are worthy of a promotion, so he might be promoted for good once that happens.
 
2. Royce Lewis, SS, Cedar Rapids
 
Many probably think I am crazy for not putting him at the top spot. I mean, it would make sense. He has been really good for the Kernels this year. After hitting .296 last year for the Kernels in 18 games, Lewis has been on fire in 2018. In 41 games this year, last year’s top overall pick has hit .307. Lewis, who turns 19 on Tuesday, has hit three homers in 163 at-bats after hitting one in 71 last year. He only has 13 extra base hits, but that will come in time. He still has an OPS of a solid .775, including a slugging percentage of .423. Last year, in 36 games in the Gulf Coast League, Lewis had 15 stolen bases, but only three in 18 games with the Kernels. However, he has 15 in 41 games in Iowa this season, and has only been caught once. It is just a matter of time before he gets promoted to High-A Fort Myers. I am biased, so I hope he at least is in Cedar Rapids until after next weekend since I will be in Appleton for the Saturday and Sunday games. I will say, I think he will be with the Miracle by my birthday (June 16).
 
1. Todd Van Steensel, RHP, Chattanooga
 
Some may think Lewis should be higher, but I chose Van Steensel since he has been so dominant with the Lookouts the last two-plus seasons. It has been a weird trip through the system for the Australian. He was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in 2009, but he was released after a year. Van Steensel then signed with the Twins in 2011, but then was cut after a year. After a few years in the Australian Baseball League, Minnesota signed him back and he has been with the organization ever since. With the exception of a year in which he had an ERA of 3.46 with Fort Myers in 2016, he has been lights out. He has been especially great for Chattanooga. In eight games for the Lookouts in 2016, he allowed two runs in eight innings. Coming back with the Lookouts in 2017, he was even better. In 58.2 innings, he only allowed nine runs and struck out 59. His opponents batting average was just .207 with a WHIP of 1.14. Even though he was outstanding in 2017, he has been even more amazing in 2018. In 15 (29.2 innings) games, the 27-year-old is 5-1 with an ERA of 1.82. The opposing batting average against Van Steensel is just .152 and his WHIP is a microscopic 0.78, which are both career-bests. He should be in Rochester at some point this season, which would open the door for Andrew Vasquez to be promoted.
 
 
As always, feel free to tell me which Twins prospects you hope to see promoted soon.

What a difference a year makes.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Rortvedt0413a-600x400.jpg
Ben Rortvedt (Photo: SD Buhr)
 
A year ago, Ben Rortvedt was getting his first taste of full-season minor league baseball after having been drafted out of high school in the second round of the 2016 amateur draft by the Minnesota Twins.
 
Things did not go well for the young catcher from Verona, Wisconsin. Through April, he was hitting only .096 with an OPS of just .229.
 
This spring, it was obviously important for the young catcher to get off on the right foot in 2018 and put that 2017 start well behind him.
 
Just 19 years old when he opened his first year of full-season minor league ball last season, Rortvedt admits he wasn’t used to dealing with the sorts of struggles he encountered a year ago.
 
“Yeah, last year did not go my way at all and I truly wasn’t used to that,” he recalled. “Since I started slow, I didn’t really know how to handle that. It was kind of rough for the first month or so. I tried to dig out of it and it was really kind of hard for me. I tried to change a lot of things.”
 
While he recovered over the second half of the season to hit right at .280 over the course of June, July and August, he decided this past offseason to go back to what he was familiar with, an approach he described as, “just simplifying everything and seeing the ball. That’s what I did going into spring training.”
 
Whatever he did, it seems to be working.
 
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Ben Rortvedt (Photo : SD Buhr)
 
Despite a 1 for 11 stretch at the plate in his last three games going into Tuesday night, Rortvedt is still hitting .321 with an OPS of .773.
 
He can feel the difference, too.
 
“I feel really good,” he said. “I’m really comfortable with the league. I know what it’s about. I’ve been seeing the ball well and finding the barrel. “
 
His manager, Toby Gardenhire, can see the difference, too.
 
“There’s a reason they put guys in the minor leagues and they have them develop and they work them up through the system,” Gardnehire said. “It’s amazing what a year in a place like this will do. He comes back and he’s a totally different guy. He’s more confident now. He knows what to expect. He knows how to go about his day-to-day business a lot better than he did last year. He’s putting in the work and he’s having results.”
 
Gardenhire has noticed more than just greater experience, though. He’s seeing a level of self-confidence in
Rortvedt that wasn’t there a year ago.
 
“It’s a confidence thing. If you go up to the plate and you don’t know what to expect from yourself and you’re just trying to make contact and you’re hoping that you do well, that doesn’t usually go very well,” the manager pointed out. “But when you’re going up there and you have a plan because you’ve been there and done it a little bit, then it changes your whole mentality and that’s what Ben’s doing right now.
 
“He’s got kind of a chip on his shoulder where he wants to go up there and be the guy. Last year, he kind of questioned himself a little bit, but this year I don’t see a whole lot of questioning himself in him.”
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Rortvedt0413b-600x400.jpg
Ben Rortvedt (Photo: SD Buhr)
 
Hitting is a good thing, of course, especially for a guy drafted as high as what Rortvedt was. But, as a catcher, what he does behind the plate is equally important, if not more so.
 
That’s an area where he’s making some adjustments to his game, as well.
 
For the first time since he joined the organization, the Twins have hired a Catching Coordinator to work with their minor league backstops. Tanner Swanson joined the organization in that capacity and Rortvedt couldn’t be happier about it.
 
“It was kind of frustrating not having someone to talk to about catching,” Rortvedt said, adding that Swanson’s arrival has changed that. “He’s very hands on, a very approachable guy.”
 
It has meant, however, that Rortvedt is working on changing the way he goes about his business behind the plate.
 
“The new big thing is receiving metrics, working a lot on receiving the ball the right way. It’s different from how I grew up catching.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Rortvedt2-400x600.jpg
Ben Rortvedt (Photo: SD Buhr)
 
“I grew up with more of an old style of catching, which was catch the ball where it is, try to make it look the best you can, be strong with the baseball. We’re moving more towards moving the baseball, trying to create strikes. So I’m kind of redefining myself behind the plate, trying to find a balance where I can still have my own flavor, but I can also move the baseball a little bit and create more strikes.”
 
It hasn’t necessarily been an easy adjustment to make all the time for Rortvedt.
 
“I grew up catching in 7th or 8th grade and I got really good at being strong with the baseball, so I’ve been fine tuning my game,” he explained. “It was almost frustrating in the beginning, but I think I’m starting to get more the hang of it. It’s a work in progress, just something to add to my game.”
 
Rortvedt’s workmanlike approach to the game is reflected in a simple goal for this year.
 
“I’m just out here to improve myself and win games,” he said. “If you win games, you’re probably doing well and contributing to the team.”
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

I have been thoroughly following the Twins minor league farm system for about 2 years now. However, this is the first year that I am analyzing the players and writing blog entries about them. To me, this seemed like a fun and interesting way to view the best players in the Twins farm system and assemble the 2018 Twins MiLB Dream Team!
 
25 Man Roster
Pitchers-
SP Stephen Gonsalves
SP Lewis Thorpe
SP Zack Littell
SP Blayne Enlow
SP Landon Leach
SP/RE Fernando Romero
RE Tyler Jay
RE Brustar Graterol
RE John Curtiss
Catchers-
Ben Rortvedt
Brian Navarreto
David Banuelos
Infield-
1B Brent Rooker
1B Lewin Diaz
MIF Wander Javier
MIF Royce Lewis
MIF Jose Miranda
MIF Nick Gordon
3B Andrew Bechtold
3B Travis Blankenhorn
Outfield-
OF Alex Kirilloff
OF Akil Baddoo
OF Jacob Pearson
OF Max Murphy
OF LeMonte Wade
 
The Lineup
Gordon 2B
Lewis SS
Kirilloff RF
Rooker 1B
Wade LF
Blankenhorn 3B
Rorverdt C
Baddoo CF
Gonsalves P
 
The way I put the pitching staff together is by comparing the pitchers W-L ratio, ERA, SO, and how consistent they have been in past seasons. I put the position players together by comparing the AVG, OBP, SLG and SO to other players from their positions. I did take into consideration how many years the player has been playing in the MiLB. I am very convinced that this lineup will be the most effective because this teams .270/.356/.428 slash line is very impressive for the average age of the players in the lineup being only 22. The pitching staff has a total of 1,971 SO in there MiLB career, with a .280 ERA and this staff limits opposing hitters to a .217 AVG. If there is any players I forgot or any questions that you would like to ask me, then comment down below or email me at tjmac242004@gmail.com.

As spring training looms, Paul Molitor and the Minnesota Twins will soon have to make some tough decisions. While the 25 man roster as a whole must be settled upon, the Twins will need to decide how they'll round out the rotation. It's obvious another Jose Berrios or Ervin Santana type impact arm is needed, but on the back end, the group has plenty of suitors. For two players though, the future is all but certain.
 
First, there's 31 year-old Phil Hughes. Still owed $26.4 million through 2019, the premature extension Terry Ryan handed out continues to be the fit that keeps on giving. Hughes gave Minnesota just 53.2 IP a season ago, and that was in follow up to a 2016 that saw him turn in just 59.0 IP. Despite being a true Cy Young candidate in 2014, his first year with Minnesota, it's been a deep dive off a cliff since.
 
The past two seasons, Hughes has dealt with a myriad of injuries. From breaking a bone in his leg, to undergoing Thoracic Outlet Surgery, health has not been something he can lay claim to. It's the TOS procedure that remains relatively difficult to come back from, and the list of those who've successfully recovered is not a long one (Matt Harvey of the Mets finds himself on the wrong side of the discussion as well). After turning in a 5.87 ERA and allowing opposing hitters a .907 OPS off of him, Hughes was shut down and again went searching for answers.
 
On August 10, Hughes underwent Thoracic Outlet Syndrome revision surgery, in hopes it would help set him up for a cleaner bill of health in the year ahead. Now fully healed, the question turns to what he can give Minnesota. The past two seasons, he's allowed hard contact roughly 40% of the time. When he was going well in 2014, that number was 32%, and it's just 38.9% over the course of his career. Maybe most alarming however is the significant dip in velocity. After throwing his fastball at 93 mph from 2009-2014, he's lost at least 3 mph over the past two seasons. Such a significant decrease can obviously cause issues, and could end up contributing to a career ending decline.
 
If he's healthy, the Twins would be getting a command artist back in the fold. Hughes at his best is a plenty serviceable back end option, and would be more than capable of being entrusted to take the ball every 5th day. Although the upside isn't there, and he's probably past his prime, a staff could do much worse than a solid Phil Hughes. How long of a leash he has to prove that's where he's at, or if there is truly a clean bill of health all remain fair questions. With north of $20 million left on his deal, it's hard to see the Twins cutting bait, but I can't imagine the current structure allowing for ineffectiveness either.
 
On the opposite end of the return spectrum is one-time top prospect Trevor May. Making his return from Tommy John surgery, May likely won't be ready on Opening Day, but also shouldn't be far off. Prior to the injury, it appeared May was going to be given every opportunity to earn a spot in the starting rotation. Despite being used solely as a reliever in 2016, the desire to get more use out of him seemed apparent.
 
As a reliever, May posted an elite 12.7 K/9 and a manageable 3.6 BB/9. His 1.5 HR/9 led to an inflated ERA, but the 3.80 FIP suggests there was quality beyond the surface. While May in the bullpen could truly be an asset to Minnesota, there's also the question as to whether or not his back could put up with the workload. Never working solely as a reliever, injuries flared as he was called upon to pitch more often, and ready himself at a significantly quicker pace.
 
Prior to his injury, May appeared to be more than a soft tossing arm deployed out of the Twins stable. As a starter, he averaged right around 94 mph on his fastball, and bumped that up to 95 mph coming out of the pen. While not triple digits, sustained velocity in the mid 90's is something that Minnesota would no doubt welcome. It's fair to wonder whether or not the surgery will sap some of the electricity, but track records for Tommy John patients have greatly improved over time.
 
In both cases, Minnesota will have some difficult decisions to make. There's a much better case to be made for May being inserted into the rotation if healthy. His long term value remains of benefit to the club, and at 28, his prime still should be in front of him. Outside of monetary obligations it's hard to say the same for Hughes. Unless he's a lights out 2014 version of himself, there's plenty of reason for skepticism when it comes to future contributions.
 
At any rate, the Twins have two starters locked in, and a third (Kyle Gibson) pretty close to being written in ink as well. The necessary addition of a top level arm remains a must, but how the 5th and final spot shakes out is anyones guess. Both Hughes and May will be in the conversation, but how will the production from both speak?
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

It's too early for this.
 
It's too early to be looking at which of the hundreds of minor leaguers currently a part of the Minnesota Twins organization might take the field at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Cedar Rapids this summer.
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Tommy Watkins is moving up to AA Chattanooga to manage in 2018, but Royce Lewis could be back in Cedar Rapids to start the new season (Photo: SD Buhr)
 
It's definitely too early to get excited about the possibility of seeing the most promising group of prospects in Cedar Rapids since, perhaps, the class of 2013 (which included Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios and more) in the first year of the Kernels/Twins affiliation era.
 
Still, since it's been minus-10 degrees or so all day and I've had nothing else to do but watch a bunch of bowl games I generally don't care about at all, I'm going to share my excitement here anyway.
 
Even as the 2017 was winding down, I found myself taking mental inventory of which members of the playoff-bound Kernels might be starting 2018 in Cedar Rapids, as well. Then I started looking at the talent that was on the field for Elizabethton's Appalachian League champion club and projecting a few that were likely to get their first exposure to full-season minor league ball with the Kernels in 2018
 
All of that informal mental note-making left me feeling pretty optimistic that the Twins would send a pretty competitive group to Cedar Rapids this spring.
 
The Kernels have qualified for the Midwest League postseason in each of the five seasons that Cedar Rapids has been affiliated with the Twins and it was fine to feel pretty good about that streak continuing in 2018.
 
But then it happened.
 
A box arrived in the mail over this past weekend and inside was the 2018 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook.(Click here to get your copy.)
 
I should have just glanced through it to make sure my name was spelled correctly everywhere I was given a photo credit, then set it aside for a few weeks until we were at least getting closer to the date when pitchers and catchers report for spring training in Florida (which is the date I unofficially consider the baseball season to begin each year).
 
But knowing how much work the authors - Seth Stohs, Cody Christie and Tom Froemming - put into writing the Handbook and how packed with great content about every Twins minor league affiliate and literally every minor league player currently under contract to the Twins, well, just giving the book a glance through was something I couldn't limit myself to.
 
So I started reading. The authors have some great articles in there, reflecting not only their knowledge of the Twins organization, but their writing skills, as well. I probably should have just read those feature articles and, perhaps, about their selections for Twins Minor League Hitter, Starting Pitcher and Relief Pitcher of the Year Awards. (All three are Kernels alums, by the way.)
 
But that wasn't enough. Not when we're in the middle of a several-day stretch of sub-zero temperatures.
 
I give myself some credit, though. I didn't read EVERY one of the player features in their entirety. It's far too early in the year to do that.
 
No, I only read the features of those players that the authors suggested have some chance of playing ball for the Kernels in 2018.
 
I think there were about 60 of them. That may seem like a lot, given teams are limited to a 25-man roster, but it's really only a little bit more than the 50 or so that you might typically see come through any MWL roster in any given season.
 
Still, not all of them will wear Kernels uniforms this season. They mentioned 28, I think, that have played for the Kernels already that may return. That would be unusual. Some of those will start the season with a promotion to Ft. Myers, some could be injured or traded during spring training and some, unfortunately, could be released by the Twins before the season starts. That's just the harsh reality of professional baseball.
 
But many of the players who WILL be coming to Cedar Rapids, either to start the season or as replacements during the course of the summer, have some very impressive backgrounds and credentials.
 
The Kernels could feature not one, but two first-round draft choices.
 
Shortstop Royce Lewis, who was the first overall pick of the 2017 MLB amateur draft, spent most of the last month of the 2017 season with the Kernels and likely will start the 2018 season in Cedar Rapids as well. He could well be joined by the Twins' 2016 first round pick, outfielder Alex Kirilloff, who had been expected to spend time with the Kernels last year, but missed the entire 2017 season following elbow surgery.
 
Of course, both Lewis and Kirilloff got big signing bonuses as top draft picks, but they aren't likely to be the only million+ dollar bonus babies to put on Kernels uniforms in 2018.
 
While Lewis is likely to see a mid-season promotion if his play develops as we'd expect it to, the Twins have another millionaire shortstop ready to step into his shoes - and position - with the Kernels. Wander Javier got $4 million to sign as an International Free Agent in 2015.
 
A couple of teenaged pitchers could eventually find their ways to Cedar Rapids, though are perhaps less likely to start the season there. The Twins' 2017 second and third round draft picks, Blayne Enlow and Landon Leach, each got bonuses in excess of a million dollars to sign with the Twins, rather than play college ball.
 
While he didn't get it from the Twins, catcher David Banuelos also got a million dollars to sign with the Mariners as their 2017 third round pick. He was acquired by the Twins in December.
 
If Banuelos is assigned to Cedar Rapids, the Kernels could potentially have quite an impressive 1-2 punch behind the plate, since it would not be surprising to see Ben Rortvedt (who signed for $900,000 as the Twins' 2nd round pick in 2016) also return to start the season.
 
In addition to Rortvedt, seven additional likely (or at least potential) 2018 Kernels pulled down signing bonuses of between $400,000 and $900,000, Those include some pretty heralded prospects such as outfielder Akil Baddoo and infielder Jose Miranda, both of which were "Compensation B" round (between 2nd and 3rd rounds) selections by the Twins in 2016.
 
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Twins 2nd round draft pick in 2016 Ben Rortvedt could well begin 2018 behind the plate for Cedar Rapids. (Photo: SD Buhr)
 
Of course, signing bonuses aren't what matter the most once these guys get on the field. No matter what you got paid, what matters is what you do between the lines when you get a chance. Still, when you're looking at young players with limited professional experience to base judgements on, bonus money and draft position are simple means of projecting the level of talent any particular roster might consist of.
 
In addition to those already listed, the 2018 Kernels roster could include, at some point:
Two 4th round picks (pitcher Charlie Barnes - 2017, and third baseman/outfielder Trey Cabbage - 2015, both of whom spent time with the Kernels in 2017) and a 5th rounder (third baseman Andrew Bechtold).
Six-figure International Free Agent signees like pitcher Jose Martinez ($340K in 2013) and catcher Robert Molina ($300K in 2013)
Nine additional players drafted by the Twins in the top 10 rounds of drafts between 2014 and 2017,

That is a lot of potential. And it doesn't even include Edwar Colina, who was the Appalachian League Pitcher of the Year last season.
 
Are you beginning to see why I'm getting excited for the season to start already? I mean, if you're Toby Gardenhire, the recently announced new manager for the Kernels, you have to feel pretty good about the talent level that you're going to have to work with in your first year as a manager in professional baseball, don't you?
 
Of course, the fun thing is that, even with all of these "prospects" on their way to Cedar Rapids, we know that there will be several guys not found on anyone's "prospect lists" that will grab hold of their opportunity to play baseball for a few dollars and show everyone they can play the game every bit as well as the guys getting all the attention... and money.
 
It happens every season and it will happen this year, too.
 
Cedar Rapids hasn't won a Midwest League title since Bengie Molina caught 45 games for the 1994 Kernels. No, that's not as long as the drought the Twins have endured since their 1991 World Series championship, but it's long enough.
 
So pardon me if I get spend a few of these cold January days daring to get excited about Kernels baseball in 2018.
 
If that's wrong, just blame Seth, Cody and Tom. That's what I usually do.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)

What a year!
2016 2017 changeActual Wins 59 85 +26
Improving by 26 games is quite a feat. So how did the 2017 Twins get there?
2016 2017 changeActual Wins 59 85 +26Pythag Wins 66 83 +17Luck -7 +2 +9
Okay, so the actual improvement was more like 17 games. The "Luck" here is shorthand for the difference between their wins and the wins we should have expected given their run totals--in other words, the advantage the Twins had over a team that scores runs in the average distribution. It is a measure of the luck involved in when the runs scored, not in whether the runs scored.
 
Wait, so one-third of the 2017 Twins performance improvement was due to luck? Should we despair that the success is illusory and thus expect the Twins to sink back to mediocrity? Not quite. The 2016 Twins were quite unlucky, so it isn't bad that they changed that. You can't count on the number being much higher than +2 in 2018, but neither should we assume it will certainly be lower. Typical division winners outperform their Pythagorean record, and so the Twins should hope to do so in 2018. That this "luck" number is merely +2 should calm the Twins fans' insecurities; the Royals has a luck number of +8 in falling short of .500, and so Royals fans should acquiesce to their unavoidable rebuild period.
 
So enough about "luck". Where did the Twins' actual improvement in run-scoring and run-preventing achievements come from?
2016 2017 changeLuck -7 +2 +9Hitters WAR 17.0 28.7 +11.7Pitchers WAR 1.8 7.0 +5.2
So three-fourths of the Twins' actual improvement was in their hitters. Let's take a closer look at it. Note that I am evaluating their hitters with hitting, baserunning, and fielding put together.
WAR 2016 2017 changeHitters 16.0 24.9 +8.9 CF Buxton 1.9 5.1 +3.2C Suzuki=>Castro 0.4 2.5 +2.13B Sano 0.8 2.5 +1.7SS Polanco 0.6 2.1 +1.51B Mauer 2.3 3.4 +1.1LF Rosario 1.1 1.7 +0.6DH Grossman 0.3 0.8 +0.5RF Kepler 2.1 2.4 +0.32B Dozier 6.5 4.4 -2.1CI Escobar -0.6 1.3 +1.94O Santana=>Granite -1.3 0.3 +1.6BC Centeno=>Gimenez 0.8 0.7 -0.1CI Plouffe=>Vargas 0.4 0.3 -0.1MI Nunez=>Adrianza 1.5 0.9 -0.6
A nine-win improvement from your starting lineup is excellent, and the bench even improved a bit. Do you think that the Twins did nothing last offseason? Looking at the above, I see ten moves the Twins made (or avoided making) that altogether led to this twelve-win improvement.
 
Moves that worked
 
Staying committed to Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario: The Twins stuck with Byron Buxton through a rough May and June. It would have been defensible to have demoted him to work on his hitting in AAA. The Terry Ryan regime might have done just that, but Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stuck with him, most notably because his fielding was not just above average but the best in the league. In the end, Buxton refined his swing and started hitting like his promise always showed.
 
In the same vein, the Twins stayed consistent with Jorge Polanco, who spent the entire year as the starting shortstop. While he didn't have defensive talent to help him along, the confidence in his ability paid off as his hitting skyrocketed in the second half. There was pressure to demote Polanco, but faith in him was paid off well.
 
Similarly, Rosario found a better stroke and contributed more than most thought reasonable to hope for.
 
Replacing Kurt Suzuki with Jason Castro: Passing on extending Suzuki, the Twins figured they could do better, and did so with Jason Castro. Castro is under contract through 2019, so the move will continue to pay off.
 
Keeping Sano at third base instead of DH: There was fear that Sano in the field at third base could be a liability, but he has done quite well there. The Twins definitely expect more production from Sano's bat, but keeping him at third base should be at least the short-term plan, assuming his current shin injury is not an impediment for doing so in 2018.
 
Not trading Dozier: While his production declined a bit from a stellar 2016, Dozier was still the third-best of all the Twins. The leading rumor last year was that the Dodgers would have traded Jose De Leon, but the Twins wanted more. That judgment paid off, as we can only assume that the Twins would not have found most of Dozier's 4.4 WAR anywhere else.
 
Not giving up on Mauer against LHP: Like most Twins fans, I was disappointed in Mauer's overall hitting in the years following the concussion, and I was clamoring for them to platoon him. Instead, he hit a respectable .750 OPS against lefties, and more, there was no obvious choice to pair with as a platoon. The Twins should continue to decrease Mauer's appearances against lefties, but the urgency to make this platoon a priority is eased.
 
Keeping Eduardo Escobar despite a poor 2016. Escobar as a bench player contributed as the Twins hoped and not as they feared. While he might not play much again at shortstop, his bat is enough to warrant keeping on as a corner infielder.
 
Moves that bombed
 
Sticking with Grossman at DH: The Twins thought Grossman could hit, so they gave him lots more chances at DH. Well, we should now realize that he can hit...sort of. The Twins could have added a win or two with a better DH.
 
Giving chances to Vargas: I think we now know that Vargas is not a major league DH. Could Falvey and Levine have come to this conclusion a bit sooner?
 
Not bolstering the bench: While improvements here would have been marginal, the right set of moves may have added a win or two.
 
On to the pitchers.
2016 2017 change5 Starters 1.5 7.4 +5.9Berrios -1.7 1.7 +3.4Duffey=>Colon -1.6 0.1 +1.7Santana 3.8 4.6 +0.8Nolasco=>Mejia 0.4 0.8 +0.4Gibson 0.6 0.2 -0.4
Pitching was disappointing, but there is a bit of hope in that they indeed improved, and two young pitchers clearly took steps forward.
 
Moves that worked
 
Not trading Santana: My choice for team MVP, J. Ervin Santana was the only comfortable part of this rotation. The Twins could have traded him, as he isn't a legitimate top-tier ace, but they would have been lost without him.
 
Committing to Berrios: This was an easier decision given his solid start to the season, but they could have sent him to Rochester to start the year--and perhaps Terry Ryan would have done so. Instead, he now looks like a real pitcher who is ready to show the rest of the league his mettle.
 
Giving lots of chances to Mejia: While Mejia's WAR is disappointing from a competition perspective, it is in line with a player in his stage of development. Without starting Mejia early and often the Twins might have hurt themselves, but more importantly, Mejia's development in the majors should give him more confidence and experience to improve in 2018.
 
Signing Bartolo Colon: While his last month showed us that the Twins shouldn't press their luck, Colon gave the Twins just a dash of added success, however meek, that wasn't available anywhere else. Dillon Gee was just not going to get it done.
 
Raising the standard past Duffey: When you are used to seeing poor pitching, Tyler Duffey might have looked promising, but he really isn't. There's a chance he can improve going forward, but it isn't a big one.
 
Moves that bombed
Signing Nolasco and extending Hughes: Yes, this was an old decision, but the Twins paid too much for Phil Hughes (in dollars+years) and Ricky Nolasco (in losing Alex Meyer). If they could have found a better free agent pitcher in 2014-2016 to help them this year, it would have been a bump up in the win column.
 
Not having an ace: Easier said than done, but imagine how better off the Twins would be with an additional pitcher to start above Santana. All the other playoff teams had at least one top-tier starter, but the Twins are now stuck without one. I can't say that there was a move available to address this, but it remains an albatross the Twins will carry for the foreseeable future.
 
And the bullpen:
2016 2017 changeRelievers 2.2 2.9 +0.8Tonkin=>Busenitz -0.4 0.7 +1.1Milone=>Breslow -0.7 -0.1 +0.6Rogers 0.6 1.1 +0.5Kintzler 1.0 1.1 +0.1May=>Belisle -0.1 0.0 +0.1Dean=>Duffey -0.4 -0.4 0.0Boshers 0.0 -0.1 -0.1Abad=>Hildenberger 1.0 0.8 -0.2Pressly 1.0 -0.2 -0.8
The Twins couldn't even get three wins-above-replacement from their top 9 relievers--which is particularly problematic when you remember that a replacement-level team would win only 45 or so games.
 
Moves that worked
 
Calling up Hildenberger and Busenitz: These two relievers outperformed all but two of the Twins' bullpen members, and did so in limited playing time. Hopefully this teaches the Twins a lesson--but it may be more apt to say that Falvey and Levine are teaching the Twins this lesson already: trust your young players if you believe they are good. 0.5 WAR replacement players are just that: replacable and often replaced. Why replace them with other scrap-heap signings and waiver claims when you could replace them with young, ready-enough talent?
 
Moves that bombed
 
Sticking with Pressly, Boshers, Breslow, and Duffey: These pitchers should have very little shot at a competitive team's bullpen. They just don't seem good enough, and the latter three are in danger of being designated for assignment--if not this offseason, at some point in the future when the Twins find relievers who are worthy. Particularly disappointing is Tyler Duffey, whose transition to the bullpen has been frustrating for himself and Twins coaches alike.
 
Not finding other bullpen help: The Twins could have spent some millions improving their bullpen with options better than Belisle. The biggest flaws in the bullpen this year were injuries to Wimmers, Perkins, May, Chargois, O'Rourke, and Jay, though of course this is not reflective of a move that worked or failed; it's just too bad the Twins didn't have any other better options to turn to.
 
Signing Matt Belisle: Feel free to object to this one, as I agree Belisle was one of the Twins' only good options in the bullpen--but they could have and should have done better.
 
Becoming a real competitor
 
Reflecting on all of this, here are some moves that you might want to put into your off-season blueprint. The Twins need to get to 92 wins to have a good chance to beat the Indians and win the division in 2018, and it may take more than that. It is a lot easier to get there from 83 pythagorean wins than in any of the five seasons previous, so now's the time to go for it.
 
Expect more from Buxton and Sano: The Twins two most promising players underperformed as hitters in 2018: Buxton for the first half, and Sano with injuries and a minor slump. These two are on a excellent trajectory and still have a ton of promise. Neither of them should be a disappointment to anyone, and I am hoping for 10-12 WAR from them in 2018.
 
Keep Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana: These are the kind of players the Twins should want to acquire, not trade away. Should the Twins keep them till free agency, they can make them each a qualifying offer and thereafter win an additional draft pick, which is a better outcome than trading them for B-level prospects. They are both solid players, and I hope for them to repeat their 9 WAR together in 2018.
 
Sign or trade for a designated hitter: I do not like the idea of moving Sano to DH and relying on Escobar or converting Polanco or a prospect shortstop to a poor-hitting third baseman. It would be far easier to find some other upgrade at DH than it would to commit to prospects at shortstop/third base for the next few years. As long as Sano is near-average in the field at third base, let him stay there. Besides, Polanco projects as a better second baseman than third baseman, which the Twins will need after Dozier leaves in free agency for 2019. Keeping Sano at third keeps Escobar as a bench bat and infield fill-in and descreases the need to play players like Adrianza or Goodrum. A capable DH should be able to increase output by 1.5 WAR next year over Grossman.
 
Sign an elite reliever: It is going to be easier to sign a reliever here than a starter, and the Twins have to get better at pitching anywhere. Signing Wade Davis, for example, would improve the bullpen tremendously and let the Twins use Hildenberger, Rogers, Buesnitz, and players coming back from injury in roles they can bulid success in. Wade Davis has achieved 3 WAR several times in his career, and we could hope for the same impact, especially if used wisely.
 
Attempt to trade for an ace starter if it is posslble: This is a tough sell, so I won't belabor it. Hope for it, but it is unlikely. The Twins can't sell the farm for this, so it probably won't happen, but it is the biggest area the Twins could improve. They should at least try. As for signings, I'd make a semi-serious offer for Darvish or even Arrieta, but it likely won't have enough years or dollars to get either.
 
Plan on trusting young starters over any free agents: While some may think the Twins should sign a free-agent pitcher, the risk of another Nolasco contract is large. Even if the Twins find a pitcher better than Nolasco and on par or even a bit better than Kyle Gibson, it would not appreciably improve the team, as the Twins already have six starters at this level: Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves, Aaron Slegers, Fernando Romero, Felix Jorge, and of course, Gibson. You can hope for 1.0-1.5 WAR out of any of these players; why go hunting for expensive free agents for it? Perhaps one of them will break through and deliver 3 WAR. So altogether, I'm hoping for an increase of 4 WAR out of the three, four, and five starting pitchers even with no trades or free agent signings.
 
Plan on trusting young relievers over inexpensive free agents: The Matt Belisle signing is not one the Twins should repeat. While they should consider signing pitchers who are a step up from Belisle, signing a pitcher at Belisle's level (or even extending Belisle himself) is too weak an ambition to improve the team. The Twins have already shown confidence in Hildenberger and Busenitz, which should continue. The previously mentioned Perkins, May, Chargois, O'Rourke, and Jay are all options to help the Twins bullpen in 2018, as well as Jake Reed and John Curtiss after them. The Twins' farm system might be considered strong in relief pitching and 2018 is the year to start gaining from it. From the two through six relievers, the Twins can get 5 WAR better from just small improvements from each spot. One or two relievers will get worse and one or two may break through, but the 2017 baseline is so low that it will look like a new bullpen altogether in the aggregate.
 
Consider signing or trading for a bench bat, preferably outfield: Assuming that Rosario or Zack Granite can play center field in a pinch, it might make sense to find an corner outfielder with some pop against left-handers. Even without a full-time platoon, such a player would be valuable off the bench. The Twins were hoping they could ask this out of Grossman, but it seems that they don't trust him to play defense regularly. Furthermore, neither Rosario and Kepler should be taken for granted; if either get injured or go into an extended slump, someone will need to step in. Chris B. Young or Rajai Davis look to be the best free agent options that somewhat fit. Perhaps the trade market might have a younger or better right-handed hitter. An increase of 1 WAR is reachable here.
 
So all of these realistic, affordable decisions could result in an increase of 17 WAR, to bring the projected win total from 83 pythagorean wins (that is, wins with 0 luck) to 100, and it can be achieved with a modest payroll increase, few or no trades, and keeping the above average farm system going. Now I am not claiming that any of these projected performances are certain or even very likely. Even if the Twins make all these moves, players will get injured, slump, or just trail off into yearlong struggles. However, if the Twins execute an offseason plan to shoot for 100 wins, there's a chance they get 92 or 95, or even 102.
 
The time for the Twins to have low expectations is over. The Twins should be aiming for 100 wins, and they can do it with a little gumption and strategy.

The Minnesota Twins are, just like the 26 other major league teams, watching the final four postseason clubs compete for a World Series victory. Unlike each and every one of those teams however, the hometown club may have just made the move of the offseason. John Manuel, former Editor in Chief for Baseball America, is now a Pro Scout for the Derek Falvey regime (or he will be as of November 1).
 
You don't know who John Manuel is you say? Well then, let me introduce you. When it comes to great baseball minds, especially those plugged in among prospects, there isn't a better tier than the one Manuel is on. This man is more connected throughout the game than is even possible to explain. Baseball America has long been the premier outlet for all things prospecting, and it's because of his leadership that the website has cultivated such strong sources and content over the years.
 
As Manuel noted himself in his post on Facebook, he's watched previous staffers join other organizations, and he's given Falvey plenty of recommendations over the years. This time however, it was his turn, and he wanted to join the team. At a Baseball Prospectus event this summer, Thad Levine talked of how the Twins may not outspend other clubs on free agents, but they'll utilize their resources to make sure they have the best internal team in place. We've already seen exciting turnover in the front office, but it probably doesn't get any better than Manuel.
 
The Twins find themselves at an incredibly important time in the history of the franchise. With arguably the greatest assembly of youth and veteran talent since they last won a World Series, this team is poised to go place. Needing to be supplemented from outside with a few key pieces, as well as best utilizing a still strong farm system, the arrow should be pointing straight up. As Manuel enters, his goal will not only be to continue to identify those players to bring into the organization, but the ones that make sense to part with or advance other areas.
 
Under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the Twins exceeded expectations the first year. The volatility of youth played out in that the team returned to a more realistic version of itself, as opposed to the 103 loss season a year prior. Now with more experience and growth under their belts as a whole, and the AL Central opening up to a certain extent, Minnesota should be on everyones radar going forward. It is in this offseason, that the ball will begin rolling to suggest what is next to come for the organization.
 
If the hiring of John Manuel is any indication of what's to come, you should bet that this Twins club is in incredibly good hands. We may not see a deal offered to Yu Darvish this winter, or Bryce Harper next, but the understanding that those influencing decisions in the front office is the best it's ever been should be a given. For the first time in what may seem like the club's history, Minnesota has transformed itself into a forward thinking, and cutting edge organization, and that should absolutely fire you up.
 
Welcome aboard John Manuel, and we look forward to watching you get to work.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

With the Minnesota Twins now finished with both the regular and postseason portions of their 2017 Major League Baseball season, it's fair to look back on the year that was. This group matured, and turned around a catastrophic 2016 effort to once again give steam to a young team going places. It was a group effort, but breaking down individual performances is a must as well.
 
In order to provide some brevity, we'll make this a three part series. Today, grades will be handed out to the starting lineup. Tuesday will focus on the starting pitching, and Wednesday will conclude with the relief group. While there were additional efforts from secondary players, bench and rotational players will be skipped over for this exercise.
All of the groundwork is out of the way, let's get into it.
 
Catcher- Jason Castro C+
 
Castro turned in a .242/.333/.388 line for the Twins in the first of a three-year deal signed this offseason. Brought in mainly as a defensive addition, it's hard to suggest the new backstop was anything but an addition. Coming off a terrible tandem in Kurt Suzuki and Juan Centeno, Castro provided certainty over 110 games for Minnesota. His .720 OPS was passable, and he launched double-digit (10) HRs for the fifth straight season.
 
Most importantly for Minnesota however, was how valuable Castro was behind the dish. Ranked 11th (of 110) in framing runs by Baseball Prospectus, he was a massive improvement from the Suzuki a year ago (92nd of 104). Castro also posted a 26% caught stealing rate (in line with a league-wide 27%). On his own, he was a huge boost for the organization. Given his work with the pitching staff, it's hard to argue that he didn't directly influence a group that saw a good deal more success as well.
 
First Base- Joe Mauer A+
 
Now in his fourth season playing first base, Mauer turned in his greatest campaign at the new position. He has to be considered the front runner for the AL Gold Glove as he ranks near the top in all defensive categories. When on the diamond, both infield teammates as well as pitchers had to know they had as much of a sure thing at first base as possible.
 
At the plate, Mauer flashed ability that made him look like a glimmer of the player he used to be. With a .305/.384/.417 slash line, he posted an .800-plus OPS for the first time since 2013. He batted .300 again for the first time since that same year, and if there was increasing doubt as to his Hall of Fame chances, he brought them to a screeching halt. The local kid looked all Hometown Hero once again.
 
Second Base- Brian Dozier A
 
Coming off a season in which trade rumors ran rampant, and thoughts of regression appeared more certain than not, Dozier did his thing once again. Despite a traditional slower start, his bat heated up as they calendar did as well. After the All-Star break, Dozier slashed .301/.391/.587 with 21 homers. He finished the year with 34 long balls, and looks primed for an extension this winter.
 
Dozier posted a second consecutive season with an fWAR north of 4.5, and has become the best second basemen in baseball not named Jose Altuve. Minnesota could be kicking themselves for not extending him into free agency sooner, but Dozier appears like a player that should be at the core of a team making the playoffs consistently for the next few years to come.
 
Shorstop- Jorge Polanco B+
 
The hope was that Polanco could step in, arguably out of position, and solidify what has been a massive hole for the Twins in recent years. While he was able to accomplish that over the course of the 162 game season, it wasn't without some hiccups along the way. Despite a mid season slump coinciding with the loss of his grandfather, Polanco put up a .256/.313/.410 slash line. From August 2nd through the end of the year, Minnesota's shortstop hit .316/.377/.553 and sent 10 balls over the fence.
 
At short, while still being below average, Polanco was hardly a deficiency. Owning just a -1 DRS across 1,119 innings, he made massive strides against a -8 DRS mark in 406 innings a year ago. His range also remained limited, but again, not nearly as much as the year prior. Arm strength will always be an issue for Polanco, but it appears the offseason work he put in did a great deal to solidify him in a starting role. For now, Polanco is hardly a problem Minnesota needs to look into.
 
Third Base- Miguel Sano B
 
Arguably no player had a more frustrating season for the Twins than Miguel Sano. That's not to say he struggled or had a bad year, but when he got down, he never really was afforded the opportunity to get back up. Coming off a significant dip in production a year ago (.781 OPS in 16, .961 OPS in 15), Sano was needing to get back to his rookie numbers. The power looked there all season long, and despite playing in just 114 games, he hit 28 homers. The strikeout numbers climbed as well though, and play at third base remained average at best.
 
For the early portion of the year, Sano had to be the team's MVP. He was an offensive catalyst, and the power was only overshadowed, among young hitters, by the likes of Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger. With 173 strikeouts and just 54 walks, he was on the same record breaking trail from a year prior. The average was higher at .264, but plenty of production had been left on the table as the rookie season plate discipline wasn't there. Sano can stick at third, I think shedding some pounds can help him. He's an offensive threat, but honing it in some is a must as well.
 
Left Field- Eddie Rosario B
 
At the plate, it was Rosario who emerged for the Twins. With a .290/.328/.507 slash line, he easily put up the best numbers of his career. With 27 homers, he threatened for the team lead, and a career best 37.6% chase rate no doubt helped to paint a new picture. He also swung through a career low 11.9% of strikes, and enjoyed a career best 78.3% contact rate. Being just a bit more calculated at the plate paid big dividends for the Twins polarizing outfielder.
 
On defense, things continue to sag. After being incredibly valuable his rookie season, Rosario has been on a negative trend ever since. With -10 DRS posted across 1,257 innings this season, he cost the time in left field. There were plenty of errant or miscalculated throws, and his routes could use some real work. Rosario is an athlete with a big arm, but at times, he tries to survive on those realities alone.
 
Center Field- Byron Buxton B
 
At Twins Daily, I voted Buxton as my team MVP. It may be hard to wrap your head around this grade given that context, but let me explain. Buxton started out dismally at the plate, and that was well documented. He did however, completely revamp his swing at the big league level. While the final result was just a .728 OPS, he actually had an .804 OPS from Jun 2nd on. At the plate, Buxton turned it on when it mattered most, and despite the slow start, he became among the Twins most valuable hitters down the stretch.
 
With Buxton, offense is never going to overshadow just how good he is in the field though. In center, he's a lock for the AL Gold Glove, and was worth an MLB best 24 DRS. His range was consistently apparent, and it was on the back of Buxton that many Twins pitchers found themselves surviving. He's an asset in every sense of the word with the glove, and that along makes him an All Star caliber player. If the offense stays throughout a full season, the rest of the league will be put on notice.
 
Left Field- Max Kepler C-
 
If there was one youngster looking to take a step forward, but failed to do so, it was easily Kepler. After a .734 OPS and some breakout notions last season, the hope was that Kepler would leap forward this year. When the dust settled however, he owned just a .737 OPS and replicated many of the same statistics he put up a season ago.
 
Arguably the most frustrating development for Kepler this season was his struggles against left-handed pitching. Despite being able to hold his own on the farm, Paul Molitor went virtually full platoon with Kepler. He was sat regularly down the stretch, and lesser bats, as well as gloves, saw playing time in his place. Going forward, Kepler is going to need to tighten his approach at the plate as a whole, and the Twins can be hopeful that it's 2018 where Kepler makes his presence known.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc.
 
What, you didn't take Latin in school? That's no excuse for not knowing the English translation of that phrase. After all, it played a pivotal role in an episode of the Aaron Sorkin political drama, "The West Wing," only a couple of decades ago.
 
 
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Manager Tommy Watkins and Royce Lewis (photo by SD Buhr)
 
Fine, since most of you still probably have no clue, I'll provide the translation. Loosely, it means, "After this, therefore because of this."
 
The phrase refers to the generally inaccurate fallacy that just because a particular event occurred just prior to another event, the first event must have caused the second. Of course, that's not always true. In fact, it seldom is.
 
So why am I telling you all of this here on a baseball blog?
 
Because I want to talk to you about Royce Lewis and the Cedar Rapids Kernels.
 
The Kernels qualified for the Midwest League Playoffs by finishing second in the league's Western Division standings during the first half of the season, which concluded in mid-June.
 
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Lewin Diaz (photo by SD Buhr)
 
About that time, the parent Minnesota Twins started promoting many of the players that played key roles in the first half.
 
Tom Hackimer, Andrew Vasquez, Jermaine Palacios, Jaylin Davis, Mitchell Kranson, Brandon Lopez, Sean Poppen and Alex Robinson all earned promotions between the end of May and early July.
 
While Cedar Rapids still had a pretty talented core of position players and several effective pitchers, the promotions took a toll and the results on the field reflected that toll.
 
The Kernels went 4-5 during second half games played in June and 13-15 in July games.
 
They followed that up by winning just four of their first ten August games, averaging just three runs per game in those contests. They scored two or fewer runs in eight of those ten games, getting shutout in three of them.
 
That left the Kernels with a 21-26 second-half record as they prepared to host Quad Cities for the third game in a four game home series on August 12.
 
On that morning, the Twins announced that 2017's first-overall draft pick, Royce Lewis, was being promoted to Cedar Rapids from Elizabethton. Lewis made his Kernels debut that evening.
 
Since then, the Kernels have won 13 games and lost just five, as they prepare to head into the final few regular season games and get ready to host Kane County in game one of the first round of the playoffs on September 6.
 
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Bullpen arms Max Cordy, Patrick McGuff, Logan Lombana (photo by SD Buhr)
 
In the first ten games of August, the Kernels averaged just three runs per game. Since August 12, they've averaged over five per game.
 
In those first ten games this month, Kernels pitching and defense were combining to surrender 4.8 runs per game. Since then, they've been giving up just over three.
 
So the Kernels' have clearly turned things around since Royce Lewis donned jersey number 30 for Cedar Rapids, but could he really be THE reason his team appears primed for the playoffs?
 
Lewis has hit .339 since taking over the leadoff spot in the order on August 12 and he's made several impressive plays at shortstop, as well, so he's clearly ONE reason for the Kernels' recent success.
 
But to assume he's the only reason would be inaccurate - and more than a little insulting to several of his teammates who have also dialed things up a few notches down the stretch, not to mention manager Tommy Watkins and his coaches.
 
In fact, as well as Lewis has played, Lewin Diaz has arguably outperformed the newbie during the same stretch of games. Diaz, who has been strong all season, has hit .351 with an OPS north of .900 since Lewis' arrival.
 
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Shane Carrier (photo by SD Buhr)
 
Travis Blankenhorn struggled at the plate in July, but he's popped a .947 OPS in August. He's hit .319 since August 12 and has hit five home runs in that same stretch.
 
Shane Carrier was on the Kernels' roster out of spring training, but struggled and was ultimately sent back to extended spring training. Since rejoining Cedar Rapids a week before Lewis' arrival, he's hit .280, clubbed five home runs and racked up an .885 OPS.
 
Shane Kennedy joined the Kernels on August 22 and has been getting on base at a .452 clip while putting up a .910 OPS.
 
Jimmy Kerrigan has been about a .270 hitter with the Kernels, but he's hit .312 since August 12.
 
Trey Cabbage and Ben Rortvedt each sport batting averages around .225. But since August 12, they've each been hitting about 45 points higher at .270 or so.
 
The Kernels' rotation has been in a state of near-constant flux this month and has been hit particularly hard by promotions.
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Eduardo Del Rosario (photo by SD Buhr)
 
Still, virtually every arm that manager Tommy Watkins and pitching coach J.P. Martinez have sent to the mound to start a game has at least given the team five solid innings before turning things over to what has been a consistently effective bullpen.
 
Reliever Hector Lujan hasn't allowed an earned run in any of his eight appearances beginning August 8.
 
Eduardo Del Rosario, who pitched well enough as a starter for the Kernels to earn a late-July promotion to Fort Myers, returned to Cedar Rapids August 15 as a bullpen arm and hasn't allowed an earned run in any of his five outings since.
 
Maybe it's all a coincidence.
 
Maybe, as they approached the final three weeks of a long season, these guys were all poised to ratchet their games up a notch or two as they headed toward the postseason.
 
All we can say for certain is that Royce Lewis showed up on August 12 with his smile and his infectious energy... and he stroked base hits in each of his first four plate appearances that night.
 
And since then, this has been a very different Kernels team on the field than what we were seeing up to that point during the season's second half.
 
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Ben Rortvedt and Logan Lombana (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
This team is clearly having fun and they are definitely winning a lot of baseball games.
 
The first two rounds of the Midwest League playoffs are best two of three games, so advancing through those rounds is pretty much a crapshoot, but three weeks ago, not many people watching the Kernels on a regular basis would have given this team much of a chance to get through the initial round of the postseason.
 
Whatever the reasons, that has changed. This is a team that now looks like a legitimate postseason contender and likely everyone in that clubhouse deserves a share of the credit.
 
(This article originally was posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

There's no getting around how bad Byron Buxton was to start off the 2017 Major League Baseball season. Through his first 15 games, he was batting under .100 and owns a 24/2 strikeout to walk ratio. If there was a doomsday scenario, this was it. Given the setback that cause, it's overshadowed just how good he's been of late though, and it's probably better than you'd think.
 
Since April 21, Buxton has played in 25 games for the Twins. He has had 86 plate appearances and compiled 73 at bats. They've come together to produce a .260/.365/.384 slash line, complete with four extra base hits, and a 23/12 K/BB ratio. For a prospect with otherworldly expectations, that may not seem glamorous, but it is, and he's not done yet.
 
Despite having the speed of a prototypical leadoff hitter, I'm not sure Buxton's on base skills will ever translate to hitting out of that lineup position. He's going to hit for more power than his wiry frame may suggest, and batting out of the three hole, as Paul Molitor started him at in 2017, may be a more realistic long-term prognosis. That gives us reason to believe the slugging numbers should go up, further bolstering his OPS production.
 
While scuffling early on, Buxton had a chase rate of 38.3% and swung through 201.% of pitches. Guessing and rolling over plenty, Buxton made hard contact just 24% of the time through his first 15 games. Since making adjustments over the last 25 games, the Twins centerfielder has dropped the chase rate to 27.8% while swinging through just 13.5% of pitches. The hard contact rate has actually slipped some (21.6%), but Buxton's BABIP is likely always going to be more reflective of his speed than his exit velocity.
 
You've been handed a few numbers to suggest why Buxton isn't done climbing the ladder yet, but now, it's important to contextualize where he is currently. The question as to what Minnesota needs from him offensively to continue to rely solely on defense, has come up more than a few times. If this latest sample size is any indication, the answer is really nothing. As the numbers indicate right now, this current level of production, has Buxton not only playing at a Gold Glove defensive caliber, but among the best outfielders in the big leagues from an all around standpoint.
 
Looking at his last 25 games, Buxton has compiled a .748 OPS. On the year, he has also contributed six DRS (defensive runs saved), which by the way, is second among MLB center fielders (thanks to the Rays having a good one in Kevin Kiermaier). Looking at those numbers, we are able to come up with a pretty focused group of big leaguers.
 
Among qualified hitters, there's just 41 outfielders in baseball with an OPS north of .750. There's also just eight outfielders with a DRS of six or more to this point. Combining those two pools, we see a crossover of just three players (outside of Buxton) that have both a .750+ OPS and have been worth at least six DRS in 2017. There names: Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, and Mookie Betts. That's a trio of players that includes a Rookie of the Year front runner, a solid 10 year vet and one time All Star, and a one time All Star that happened to be last year's runner up in the MVP voting. Any way you cut it, that's a pretty strong group for Buxton to be included in.
 
Now, as with the 15 games before, a 25 game sample size is hardly anything to begin writing checks off of. What's noteworthy however, is it doesn't just appear to be a hot streak for Buxton, he's made fundamental changes. Having worked with James Rowson and heard from a few others, Buxton's swing is a tighter, more well oiled machine right now. He's got the confidence in the box to let the bat play, and that the ball will carry thanks to the process he's taken prior to contact.
 
At just 23 years old, Buxton also remains the youngest of that group of aforementioned dual threat talents. His defense is going to remain at an elite level for years to come, and the expectation that the offensive water level raises is a pretty solid one. Each jump the bat makes, will only elevate Buxton as a whole, and even at this early stage, it's easy to see why his ceiling is so high, and excitement level so real.
 
It's still early for him, but even while still coming into his own, Byron Buxton is among the best dual threat outfielders in all of major league baseball. Imagine what happens as his game continues to evolve.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

We are more than a month and a half into the season, and several prospects have gotten off to a great start. I avoided the prospects who have just been on their current team for just the last month and a half. Last year, I made a list like this and all five were promoted soon after I wrote it, so we’ll see if I have similar luck this year.
 
5. Tom Hackimer, RP, Cedar Rapids
 
I was tempted to put Fort Myers’ Williams Ramirez in this spot, but I decided against it since he has only pitched 22 innings with the Miracle. Hackimer debuted with the Kernels last season and had a terrific season, but has been much better in 2017. In 2016, he had a 2.39 ERA with 26 strikeouts in 26 innings. He has improved upon those numbers this season. In 22 innings, he has an ERA of just 1.64 and an incredible WHIP of just 0.59, which leads the Twins minor league system. His six saves ranks second in the system and has just walked two batters in his 22 innings. Last year’s fourth round pick also has given up just one homer in his 48.1 career innings with the Kernels. He also is striking out more than one per inning, having struck out 25 already. His numbers across the board are sensational and the former St. John’s star should be getting the call to join High-A Fort Myers very soon.
 
4. Chris Paul, 3B, Fort Myers
 
When he is not throwing alley-oops to Blake Griffin, you can find Paul lighting up the Florida State League. After dominating in Cedar Rapids last season, he was promoted to Fort Myers after just seven games. He did not have the same amount of success with the Miracle following his promotion. He batted just .228, having just two homers and 36 RBI in 92 games in Fort Myers last season, but his numbers so far in 2017 are near the stats he put up with Cedar Rapids in 2016. This has been a theme for Paul ever since being drafted by the Twins in 2015. Every year, Paul has started with a bang to earn a promotion and then has struggled mightily following it, only to bounce back at the start of the new season. Through 43 games in High-A this year, Paul is hitting .335, which leads the organization. He also is in the top five in the Twins system in OPS, doubles and runs batted in. He is due for a promotion to Double-A Chattanooga soon, but it will depend on how invested the organization is in T.J. White, who Paul would replace with the Lookouts.
 
3. Sean Poppen, SP, Cedar Rapids
 
Last year’s 19th round pick has been impressive in every stop he has made in the organization. His worst stop was actually Elizabethton, where he had a 2.97 ERA, but walked 18 in 36 innings. After a promotion to Cedar Rapids last year, Poppen went 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA. His control improved a bit, but still walked six in 17 innings in his four games (three starts) last year with the Kernels. This year, his control has improved and his numbers have remained very good. In his eight starts so far, he is 2-1 with an ERA of 2.68. In his 50.1 innings, he has walked just 11. His walks per nine innings is currently tied for second in the organization. He also ranks in the top five among the Twins affiliates in strikeouts per nine with 8.7. With him already being 23, it would be a good decision to challenge him at High-A Fort Myers.
 
2. Jermaine Palacios, 2B, Cedar Rapids
 
In 2015, Palacios took Minor League Baseball by storm, hitting .370 in his stops between the GCL Twins and Elizabethton. But last year was a disappointment. In his first season with Cedar Rapids, Palacios was a part-time starter and hit just .222. However, he is back to his 2015 form this season with the Kernels. This year, he is near the top of the Twins minor league system in many offensive categories. His batting average (.327) is second in the Twins system and his slugging percentage (.544) leads the system. He also shown some extra base power, having 20 extra base hits, including six homers. Palacios has six steals as well, but has been caught five times. The 20-year-old will probably spend most, if not all, of the season down in Cedar Rapids, but he will make his Fort Myers debut at some point in the near future. With his impressive season, he is showing that last year may have been a but of a fluke and may have risen into the top 10 for Twins prospects.
 
1. Nick Burdi, RP, Chattanooga
 
After an arm injury wiped out nearly his entire 2016 season, Burdi has come back with a vengeance this season. When he was drafted out of Louisville in 2014, Minnesota expected him to be up with the team late that season or in 2015, but injuries have his hurt his progress and had been mediocre when on the field when he was healthy. He has finally put it all together in 2017. He has just allowed a single run in his 17 innings this year, and his 0.53 ERA is second in the Twins system. His WHIP of 0.76 is also third in the system and has punched out 20 in his 17 innings. I am not sure he will be moved up really soon due to him having pitched only 20 innings in a little more than a season. However, if he keeps this up, he will be with the Twins or Triple-A Rochester at some point this season.
 
As always, feel free to comment with players who you think should be in the top five.