AZTwin
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Everything posted by AZTwin
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You can see Deleon become an ace? Can you be classified as an ace if you can't get over the 162 qualifying innings?
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We need more than two relief pitching projects
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Dodgers can grab what they want but they got some never leaguers on their roster that might help them. Big win for them if that's the case otherwise I bet they lose value at midseason. Hopefully twins got a good return
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My biggest concern is that he has never thrown over 110 innings in any given year in his career and already 24.5 years old. We have prospects much younger that are able to log more innings. Maybe he is a one trick pony and only a relief pitcher going forward
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No I compared him to guys in the twins system and other top 100 prospects. He's averaging 30% less innings. I was rebutting the other guys comparison to kershaw which you admit is ridiculous
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i think it's why they want significant pieces as 3 and 4. They recognize the risk and want to partially mitigate that risk and is why they are holding out. It is very reasonable. At the end of the day, I don't think the dodgers have the depth in their farm system where either team would want to get a deal done
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My interpretation of it all is that the dodgers are taking some average SP prospects and setting them up to be good relief pitching prospects with the hope that someone buys the fools gold and overpays for what they think can be starting pitchers. Again JMO
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This post just simply isn't true. Kershaw was able to pitch 180 innings his age 20 season. To be 24 and still around 100 innings is concerning. Hell even kershaw's age 19 season he threw over 10% more than deleons most with over 120 innings, At age 19 you are really building them up for their first full season so that isn't an atypical number. To be 24 and not even close to the standard 140 and have shoulder soreness is a major RED FLAG. JMHO
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The innings pitched thing just blows my mind. All of their guys hover around 100 innings. Most in the top 100 are 140+ in minors. Ours ranged 140-167 for most part besides Jay, who of course we shut down because he is a relief pitcher we're trying to convert. These guys are entering their prime and practically at Jay number of innings. Do we really expect to acquire these guys and expect them to magically double the amount of pitches they can throw in season 1? My guess it would take until their age 27-28 season before you could even think about giving them 190+ innings. And even that is an aggressive timeline. I would want their top 2 pitchers (Deleon and Alvarez) along with Lux and verdugo to even think about making a trade. I'm really glad falvey and co are holding out
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It's no secret that the dodgers had a lot of injuries to pitchers last year. I wonder if that's a direct result of how much the pitchers are babied in the minors. Maybe none of their guys can hold up a whole major league season because of it. I would be extemely cautious make a trade with a club that claims to have an abundance of pitchers but none of them can pitch over 100 innings during a year without their shoulder flaring up. TONS of RISK here folks. Let them keep their guys and let's find a potential trade partner at the deadline
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Much better than a couple arms with major flags that might end up in the bullpen even if they turn out. We will get a better return mid season when those guys are practically 26 and 25 respectively, no legitimate major league experience, and still throwing under 110 innings a year or have their shoulders flare up again all while our player is posting a 4.5+ WAR in the majors. Even if we hold on to him at the break, that's valuable to have on this squad for 2 years to help show the young guns how a veteran star prepares, and get a draft pick when he leaves.
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At this point I hope the dodgers go another direction. I think that would work out better for the twins in the long run.
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Yes. They have picks 1-30 but we have the first pick in round 2!
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4.5 WAR average over first 4 years and trending up sounds like a hell of a player to me.
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And the 5.2 WAR the year before. Call 2.4 and 6.5 outliers and stick with 5 WAR. Seems fair. And what he was doing at the end of last year was more sustainable as something clicked and he was using a great new found approach. And yes trajectory
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Sorry averaged 4.7 WAR over 3 years with upward projectory. To assume 5 WAR is so ludicrous
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A player averaging 5 WAR for 2 seasons is worth significantly more than a person that averages 1.8 WAR a season for 6 seasons. Keep in mind the return you get for a player like that if you so chose and you have the inside chance of continue to have that WAR at subsequent seasons.
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So we're in agreement then those 3 are reasonable return. No one said we are going for a star. Just guys with upside (and a lot of risk)
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No player discussed (Deleon, Alvarez, Stewart, etc) have more than a 5-10% chance of becoming a star so let's not pretend they are. Dozier is already a top 25 position player in MLB
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You can do outliers all day long. Fact is that it significantly reduces probability and value. No GM is going to value a player like a star if he has 0.0001% chance of becoming one.
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Yes. If you aren't challenged you aren't improving. He'll plateau. If they're still in minors at mid season, they're going to lose a lot of value. Especially Stewart.
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Off limits lol. Honestly I think a package around Bellinger and Alvarez with fillers like Stewart is probably fair. But yeah more thinking about it Deleon isn't that good of a prospect. At the trade deadline I bet his value is a lot lower, especially if it looks like he can't eat innings at least. He's at the age where it's either put up or shut up and he hasn't shown that he's ready to do that
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Age matters. If your 25 or older with no meaningful MLB experience and 7 on depth chart then you are no longer a top prospect. You are more like a journeyman type. Still have value? Sure. Just nobody is fooling themselves thinking that they have a future ace or even number 2 on their hands
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Dodgers are really overplaying their hand in this one. The prospects they want to give up are burried right now. If at the break they have practically a 25 year old and 26 year old still in AAA, no one in their right mind is going to value that highly. Those players are going to lose a ton of value and not fetch much at the break. Dodgers need to make this trade now to get max value out of their prospects otherwise it's going to be the start of diminishing returns and soon enough they are stuck with nothing. If we don't make the trade at least we have an all star on our hands for another couple years
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Sounds like the dodgers just don't have the depth to make a trade like this. If 5 guys are off limits because of depth concerns then I can't see it happen. They just can't match what we have to offer. Oh well
