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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    I don't think anyone has said Nola has a FLOOR of a #3 pitcher, only a ceiling of a #3. There has never been a pitcher in the history of ever that has had a floor of a #3. That's basically a zero percent chance that he will bust. The guy throws 91-92 mph and no wipeout breaking pitch. That means he has less margin of error than a guy who is able to miss bats. He might be a good MLB pitcher, but the odds aren't going to be much, if any, better than it is for the other top arms. Anyway, I could care less if this team had another "Mike Leake." Even the Twins could afford a "Mike Leake" on the free agent market. With a top 10 pick, the goal should be to get someone you otherwise would have a hard time affording. As for the 'quick to the MLB' talk, even if it's true (cough cough Wimmers cough cough) so what? What's with the instant gratification? I don't want quick to the majors, I want All-Star, Cy Young and World Series MVP. Either way, the Twins haven't been down to see Nola in a month but are all over most of the other top projected guys. I'm feeling pretty good that he's off the board.
  2. nicksaviking
    Why do you make me sad on a beautiful Thursday morning?
  3. nicksaviking
    This is clearly the solution. This team has given regular at bats to Pedro Florimon and Aaron Hicks this season. Herrmann couldn't hit a softball with a crickett bat, is the .5% chance that the pitcher might have to bat really that much worse of a situation? Or, you know, you could pinch hit for the pitcher. No rule says he HAS to bat.
  4. nicksaviking
    I can't speak for others, but when it comes to picking a bat at #5, I want the best bat available regardless of position. I want a great bat, I don't want the qualifying addendum. In other words, I want to say, "He's got a great bat!" not, "He's got a great bat... for a shortstop!"
  5. nicksaviking
    That's interesting, particularly because the Twins have always seemed to be pretty reliant on off-speed pitches.
  6. nicksaviking
    Also he's good at getting shot so the story goes. Maybe he got his rotator cuff shot off? Can that happen?
  7. nicksaviking
    In the early rounds, the smoke screen likely has more to do with hiding your intentions with the player. If the Twins want player X at #5 surely they will want he and his agent to think there are a multitude of players they WANT but will sign the guy who is accomodating to the team's offer. In later rounds, smoke screens would be helpful because really, after round 5 or so, guys start getting drafted that other teams never even scouted. Mid to late round players are such a crap shoot, but you still have the guys you like.
  8. nicksaviking
    Strangely I felt a shiver go down my spine when I watched that. I think I'm going to chalk that up to Bark's aliens instead of sentimentality though.
  9. nicksaviking
    I'm lucky. I live in Fargo and still get the games on AM and both the stations that carry the games have a couple of the largest signals in the country. During my monthly drives to the metro area though it's such a crap shoot if, and for how long, I'll pick up the broadcasts from Alexandria, St. Cloud and KTWN. I've told my wife many times that it's shocking the team puts so little effort to reach so much of it's key target audience.
  10. nicksaviking
    Baker --> Darvish = Gehrig --> Pipp
  11. nicksaviking
    Correia doesn't seem like the Yankees kind of pitcher, but trading a bad 1-year contract for another bad 1-year contract where both teams (questionably) fill a postion of need might work.
  12. nicksaviking
    I think my wishlist is Aiken Rodon Kolek Jackson Holmes Toussaint Gordon Newcomb But those last five are pretty close to a push for me.
  13. nicksaviking
    Because there's not guarantee that there will be a tough-sign HS kid available with the teams 2nd pick. 12 teams have two picks before the Twins have theirs, two teams have three picks and one team has four. The Twins aren't likely to get the guy they may want to target.
  14. nicksaviking
    That recoil looks like trouble. Along with him using max effort on that stringbean frame, I think he's going to be in the doctors office way too often.
  15. nicksaviking
    Actually, I think Vlad gets in. Not 1st ballot but likely in his first five years. Abreu and Raines were good players for a long time. Guerrero was an elite player for a decade and a good player for his entire career. I agree with Beltre though. He is only 35. He plays strong defense and has very good on base skills, two things what will keep him employed even if other indicators point to a decline. He's not a lock for 3,000 hits, but I'd say the odds are strongly in his favor to get there. That would put him the the HOF.
  16. nicksaviking
    I think most would say that Mauer was never a team leader. It's always been clear he wasn't a Type A personality. Calling him lazy though is probably out of line. He could have been doing any number of pregame preperations including batting practice or hitting off a tee underneath the stadium or studying tape or going over gameplans with the coaches.
  17. nicksaviking
    I lost an internal bet with myself. I was positive the the two words were going to be Mark DeRosa. I'm game for Ichiro. Not sure if he should be playing CF, but really, that can be said for every OF above AA ball for this club. Get him, play him most every day and re-sign him again next year if it looks like he may have a chance to get 3,000 in 2015. I love getting the old vets chasing milestones.
  18. nicksaviking
    Adam Johnson was the safe college pick, he would be an argument AGAINST Nola. He busted just as hard as the half dozen HS arms picked after him.
  19. nicksaviking
    I'm much more interested in Holmes and Toussaint. Newcomb could bust but he does intrigue me and Freeland has grown on me more. I'd prefer all those guys over Nola. As to the second part, that's what is wrong with the perception of Nola, he is not 20x more likely to succeed than the other guys. He's not even 2x more likely to succeed. Someone may be able to find the studies of HS arms vs college arms, but in the top 10 I think the percentage of success difference is something like 5-10%. That's not much, and it's surely not enough for me to take a low ceiling guy.
  20. nicksaviking
    But a guy who projects to be Brad Radke can bust just as a guy who projects to be Johan Santana. Why wouldn't you pick the guy with higher upside? It's a crapshoot with all these guys. People are getting fooled into thinking, "control" and low velocity guys are more of a sure thing to make it. If they are more likely, we're probably talking about a likelihood of 40% instead of 35%. I'm not tossing away upside for a measly 5% increase in odds. Bottom line is, Nola is far from a lock from becoming Brad Radke. In fact the odds are against it. He is almost certainly a lock NOT to become an ace. The other available pitchers are also aren't likely to be as effective as Brad Radke, but at least they do have a shot at being an ace.
  21. nicksaviking
    Beede's a junior and he already gambled on himself by not signing once. I'd bet there's a pretty strong chance he goes back to school next year if he's not drafted in the upper half of the first round.
  22. nicksaviking

    Ish

    nicksaviking replied to a topic in Other Baseball

    Well are the establishments going to use them for their intended purposes? Or as a beverage cooler as the listing suggests?
  23. nicksaviking
    I don't like the idea of Rosario in the OF as his offensive capabilities don't look like they'll be an asset in a corner position, but unless the Twins try Dozier at SS again, I don't know where else he's going to play.
  24. nicksaviking
    That is a unique mock. Looking at the cover pic, Rodon should be the clear choice. Just think how good he could be after someone teaches him to pitch with his eyes open! http://i2.cdn.turner.com/si/dam/assets/140518122503-carlos-rodon-ap2-single-image-cut.jpg
  25. nicksaviking
    I'm not sure it's still considered cannibalism if they still had the left over ear to reattach. Sounds like Olivo had second thoughts about swallowing. Unless they had to retrieve it from Olivo's stool.
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