nicksaviking

I don't know if Plouffe was shopped or not, but I'd also bet that Ryan would have said Hicks wasn't shopped right up until the final signature was placed on his trade paperwork.

Not that I agree with the same kind of move today, but we also shouldn't forget that to replace Morris in 1992, McPhail traded two of his top prospects, Midre Cummings and Denny Neagle for one season of one of the NL's best pitchers the previous year, John Smiley.

I'm also not interested in Thornton. His peripheral numbers show he was not nearly as good as his counting stats would suggest. If he can't miss bats anymore, he's not worth it. I don't like that Burdi is tinkering already. He's a fireballing reliever, those guys usually only need two pitches. He was pitching well the second half of last year. After his initial demotion he was giving up 5.4 H/9 the rest of the year, his main problem was free passes, I can't see how adding a new pitch would help with that. Why tinker unless what you're doing isn't working?

They both were included in that trade, I regretfully left out Hardy like a mis-treated step child on a family tree.

Lot's of fans said they should. Obviously the team didn't want to but that decision wasn't based on long term winning, it was based on putting fans in the seats at all costs. And it still failed.

Those flyers aren't so much of a crap shoot though because pitchers on 1-2 year deals are a lot easier to move than guys on 4-year deals. Signing guys like Buehrle wasn't going to put this team over the top. He's barely a step up over the Santana/Nolasco/Hughes kinds of deals. If the Twins were going to go from rock-bottom with no prospect help to contenders, they would have had to go with the big name free agents on mega contracts.

I agree that Park was pretty redundant, but his contract is so cheap he's basically being paid like a bench player. He's a lotto ticket and I'm more than willing to gamble with that power upside. I don't like 3-4 year deals either, but if he's as bad as Nishioka, I have no doubt that the Twins would eat the remaining $6M and DFA'ing him after two years. It's not Twins-like, but it's not unheard of, and besides, it'll be a drop in the bucket compared to what they'll have already eaten having already gotten rid of Nolasco by that time.

I think the argument really isn't "Is the Twins system broken" so much as it is "Is the Twins system obsolete". It might be, maybe not all of it though, maybe not most of it. After all, things are often cyclical and things that are old often times once again become new. The Astros and Cubs showed again last year that the homegrown method of drafting and acquiring young talent is a very practical way of winning. Again. That used to be in the Twins wheelhouse if it still isn't. Plenty of other areas of the system surely have updates that are long overdue though.

Who? Aside from Mark Lowe who we've already discussed as a guy who was underrated, I don't see free agent pitchers in 2015-16 that had markedly better numbers than Stauffer last year. Stauffer had three starts in 2014, other than that he was largely one-inning relief pitcher. His peripherals in 2013-14 were better than Tyler Clippard and Joakim Soria in 2015 and were inline with Ryan Madson.

But they don't know where the holes are. Everyone wanted the bullpen upgraded even though there are at least a half dozen young arms who might excel in that role. Or they might not. We don't know yet, I'm OK waiting to find out.

You've been asking for bullpen upgrades all off season, how were Stauffer's 2013-14 numbers really much different than the guys you wanted this year? Stauffer wasn't any good last year, that happens all the time with free agent relievers, more so than any other position.

Scott hadn't been pitching well, so getting him out of the picture and getting a prospect for him could certainly be considered a win. At the time though, fans weren't too kind regarding the move due to how spectacularly bad Klingenbeck was.

Without digging too deep, for the Twins I'd guess it's AJ Pierzynski drafted in 1994 who gave us Nathan, Bonser and Liriano. Liriano gave us the departed Pedro Hernandez but also Eduardo Escobar. Another current one is Travis Boyer drafted in 1999 along with Scott Tyler brought the Twins Luis Castillo who was later traded for Dustin Martin and Drew Butera. Butera was traded for Miguel Sulbaran who was traded for Eduardo Nunez. I regret forgetting to include the Hardy contribution with Harris in that Hoey trade. I didn't expect that post to get so long. Man I wasted a lot of time at work this morning. Edit: actually there is a longer one, but it's more like a shrub. The a Twins drafted Eddie Guardado in 1990. The comp picks they received upon his free agency turned out to be Matt Fox and current closer Glen Perkins.

The signing of Brian Duensing with the Kansas City Royals closes the book on a story that was started in 1989. In the first round of that year's draft, the Twins selected Texas A&M shortstop Chuck Knoblauch who would go on to spawn the trade that would put Twins GM Terry Ryan on the map and the fruits of that trade would be felt until 2015. After seven seasons of what looked to be the beginning of a HOF career, Chuck Knoblauch and his 37.9 WAR wanted out of Minnesota and to a contender. Well that's how the fans knew it anyway, back before internet media was a thing. While largely unpopular at the time, the Twins received Brian Buchanon (.3 WAR), Christian Guzman (7.5), Eric Milton (14.7) and Danny Mota (-.1) in what would be the branches of our Knoblauch trade tree. Brian Buchanon had some nice power potential and looked the part of a middle of the order bat, unfortunately for him, he found himself in a space crunch as he was competing for the RF/DH spot with Michael Cuddyer, Dustin Mohr, Bobby Keilty, David Ortiz and Matthew Lecroy. Buchanon found himself shipped off to San Diego and in return the Twins received shortstop prospect Jason Bartlett (8.9). Bartlett would go on to play four seasons (initially) with the Twins before getting traded to Tampa Bay with Matt Garza and Eddie Morlan for Delmon Young (1), Brendon Harris (.-6) and Jason Pridie (-.2). Pridie teased Twins fans with his potential but never put it all together and was soon DFA'd. Brendon Harris found himself a mostly every day super-utility role for the Twins before being traded for Jim Hoey (-.6) and Brett Jacobson. Jacobson never made it to the majors, Jim Hoey and his disastrous 24.1 innings unfortunately did. Delmon Young played three and a half mercurial seasons with the Twins, seemingly breaking out in 2010 and being a large reason for the teams division title. Alas it was not to last and the following year he was traded to Detroit for Cole Davis who never appeared in a MLB game and Lester Oliveros (0). Oliveros would too tease with his potential, but never got much of an opportunity to make it at the MLB level and was recently picked up the Royals. That wraps up the Buchanon wing of the Knoblauch trade tree, so let's head back to the top and check in on Eric Milton. Milton pitched six seasons for the Twins, six seasons that saw an All Star appearance, a no-hitter, and questionable contract extension. Despite that contract extension, the Twins were able to move him to Philadelphia for a package that included Carlos Silva (9), Nick Punto (10.3) and Bobby Korecky (.2). Silva pitched four solid seasons for the Twins before signing a nice free agent contract with Seattle, but most interesting for Silva was his 2005 season when he set a modern day record of .4 BB/9. Seriously, that is bizarre, check out the single-season leader board and the next closest modern day player was Brett Saberhagen with a .65 BB/9 which is almost a 40% increase: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/bases_on_balls_per_nine_season.shtml Nick Punto just announced his retirement but played seven super-utility seasons with the Twins before leaving and winning a World Series with St. Louis in 2011. Bobby Korecky, we hardly knew you, except for that time in 2008 when the Twins lost their DH and you had to come to bat in the 11th inning. Of course in that 11th inning you not only got a hit in your only career AB but also the Win. That has to be worth more than .2 WAR, which surely proves WAR is worthless. Back to the top and we get to Danny Mota, who would do next to nothing for the Twins, appearing in all of 5.1 innings at the MLB level. The last branch on the Knoblauch trade tree begins with Christian Guzman. The speedy shortstop made one All Star Game and led the league in triples three times. He left as a free agent to Washington, but in doing so the Twins were rewarded with a compensation draft pick. Not a 1st round pick because that was protected. Not a second round pick because that was already lost, but a 3rd round pick in the 2005 draft which the Twins used to select Brian Duensing (6.2). Duensing was an unheralded prospect who made an immediate impact in 2009 and found himself pitching game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees, it did not go well. Duensing had another nice season in 2010 as a swing man before settling in as regular out of the pen. His seven years with the Twins matches Punto and Knoblauch himself in terms of number of seasons played for the Twins for the men listed in this overly long post. In total, 19 players were acquired due to the first round selection in the 1989 draft and a total of 94.6 WAR was gained. These trees can be found throughout baseball, and surely there are others as fruitful, but this one has interested me for a long time. All of the comical propositions of tossing Duensing into trade proposals the last couple of years were serious by me because I wanted this tree to keep growing. It however will not. Epilogue: the Twins 1989 draft was fantastic. They drafted three players with a career WAR over 20 in Knoblauch, Denny Neagle and Scott Erickson, also drafting Marty Cordova, Mike Trombley and Denny Hocking. Some of these players spawned unexpected fruit however too. While Erickson's trade for Scott Klingenbeck and Kimera Bartee is one of Ryan's best known failures, in 1992 Andy McPhail made a trade of Denny Neagle that would live on for years. In trading a top prospect in Neagle, (something unbelievable for the Twins today) the Twins received John Smiley, a very good, but not great pitcher who the Twins wanted/needed to replace the departed Jack Morris. Smiley pitched one fine year for the Twins before leaving, and in his place the Twins got a compensation pick in 1993 which they used to select Torii Hunter. When Hunter would leave the Twins would use his comp picks to select busts Carlos Gutierrez and Shooter Hunt. Also, while the Twins didn't get a comp pick for losing Marty Cordova, even though he had an .828 OPS the prior year, they did get one for losing Mike Trombley in 2000. They used that pick to select Aaron Heilman, who had a really nice MLB career, just not with the Twins because he refused to sign with them.

What are you talking about? Why does someone have to predict the future to justify the use of BABIP? Also, I don't understand why using OPS to make a projection is fair game but BABIP isn't.

I am so jealous of that rotation.

Good point on Rosario, I can't see him starting all year if he has a .680 OPS, particularly if that's being weighed down by his OBP, which is a skill the Twins are dearly lacking. Same with Plouffe though. If he's playing that poorly, we should probably expect Sano at 3B. And if Murphy is head and shoulders better than Suzuki, I think the split will be more than 60/40. On one hand, this team likes it's veterans, on the other, they are going to want to showoff what they got for Aaron Hicks.

That would be fine, but what if Duffey and Berrios are pitching great and the vets are pitching just "OK"? Will the they have the guts to pull Nolasco/Milone/Hughes if they are pitching like Pelfrey in 2015 even if the young guys are tearing up AAA? Same with the pen. If Fien/Jepsen/Abad are just pitching like Boyer and Fien in 2015, would they get removed if any of the young arms are tearing it up?

That collection of vets in the bullpen is pretty uninspiring. If that's who comes north I'd feel much better IF we knew Fien, Nolasco and Abad have little to no leash. I'd also feel more comfortable if the team acknowledged that they understand Jepsen's resurgence with the Twins in 2015 is no more likely to recur than his decline with the Rays in 2015. What he did in Tampa last year was about what Tonkin did in Minnesota last year, Jepsen's role as bullpen Vice President should not be in stone.

So Santana's .405 BABIP was flukey, but it in no way helps to explain the drop off in production in 2015 and nothing can? Even though nearly everyone predicted that Santana would drop off in 2015 due to his extremely high BABIP everyone was just a lucky guesser? Because there really isn't any other measure that takes into account "Texas Leaguers", "Seeing-eye Singles" and other various other hits that a fielder probably should have turned into an out but didn't, BABIP is a pretty strong tool for determining if a player had more than his fair share of these during the year. Obviously those kinds of hits are based more on luck than skill, and luck shouldn't be an expectation.

At this point, barring injury Berrios has gotten close enough that he will get a shot at the MLB regardless of what he does in the minors. He could be terrible at Rochester, but the team will still want to see him before cutting bait as his resume to this point has been so outstanding. The same isn't a guarantee with Stewart of Jay. It's highly unlikely that they don't get at least a taste of the MLB, but as mentioned, their floor is still minor league flameout.

But it sounds like the Twins didn't like the results of his physical and Cody's side disagreed that there was any concern about the physical. Otherwise what's to stop the club from always telling the player his physical showed "concerns"? Now I don't think the Twins of all teams would do some like this, but from a player's perspective, they have to be able to back out if they disagree with the club's interpretation of the physical.

Pressly should be more of a lock than Fien, and I'm concerned that the team is going to put too much confidence in Jepsen. He wasn't doing well in TB and with his age, I think it's better than 50/50 that his declining results with TB will be what we see instead of spike we saw with the Twins. But my biggest concern is that Molitor will still run out relievers based on seniority, not talent. He can't keep running guys out in high leverage jams because of "experience". The young guys with the ability to miss bats need to be used when you most need bats missed, not in mop up duty. Fien should NEVER be on the mound with the bases loaded and less than two outs. Unless the game's already a blowout.

I don't want either of them hitting and the Twins sure as hell better not be planning on any of them doing it regularly. I don't see value for the position other than defensive replacements, which is probably a push, and base running which Sweeney comes in third place.