ewen21

I am presenting my case. If it looks like I presented it in some way where no one can dispute something that is a fact and not actually a claim I have made then maybe I am making some sense coming in on the other side of this issue. Also, for you to say I don't know that he won't get better is simplistic at best. This is like me saying, "Well, it is September 25th. Looks like the end of the hot weather" and then you telling me "how do you know that?" Seems like almost everyone is in agreement here. The title says the "Twins should sign Yu Darvish, regardless of price" and I don't agree for many reason, but the MAIN REASON, the REAL REASON is the ridiculous terms he is looking for AND the FACT that no one remains effective when you move the timeline out far enough. He is almost at that point on the timeline where the decline is going to start. It is inevitable and impossible to avoid. Please don't ask me how I know that.

Actually, I wasn't the one getting all technical with the "age 31" stuff. I guess you needed to be right about something and you were there. I did not assign the proper nomenclature to my thoughts. Never the less, my take cannot be disputed. Darvish will be signed at a time in his career where his skills are almost guaranteed to diminish by his second contract year. Even worse, the guy is not that great to begin with for all the attention he is getting. You want Darvish. I get it. I don't and you get that. This is OK.

Very compelling stuff.

He turns 32 during the season. You want to say I didn't get it right according to "commonly accepted protocols" then you got me. But what difference does that really make? You got to correct a detail but you lose the forest for the trees. I parsed nothing. Everything I said still stands. Darvish on his best day isn't Zach Grienke or Verlander by any standard. VErlander and Grienke are still effective pitchers, but nothing like they declined as all other pitchers do when you extend out the timeline far enough. And YES. I do not like Darvish. Don't like his "makeup" and I trust him. It could be for reasons that appear completely arbitrary to you, but I will not get into attacking him right now. Not fan. SImple as that If you want to go WAR on me then Darvish has not had a WAR over 4.0 since 2013.

He isn't likely to get worse. He will get worse. As far as spending money goes, I am willing to let Darvish watch from the sidelines during spring training and delve into the free agent market next year. Possibly make a move during the season. Darvish just makes no sense to me. None at all.

I'd be interested in hearing the rationale behind how anyone knows Darvish will be as good as he was the last five years (good, not great) rather becoming than steadily worse like every other pitcher since the history of time from age 32-36. Are we actually assuming Darvish will pitch more innings in the next five years than he has the last five years? If so, someone needs to explain that to me. Forget the reality of talent erosion, What about that?

I read enough of the thread. I posted some stuff that is pretty much REALITY when it comes to starting pitchers and age. We will be making a big mistake if we sign him, in my opinion.

Why do I need to do that? The title of the thread says "sign him regardless of price" and the majority of the posters here seem to support that mindset. If we are to stop caring about how much we sign players for then count me out of that. I am not interested in moving heaven and earth to get this pitcher. I think it is kind of hard to dispute the logic in my last post. We can talk about the picayune if you want, but pitchers get worse at age 32. YOu know this. Everyone knows this. And to assume Darvish is going to be a special pitcher the next four years isn't sound, in my opinion. He would need to actually be better AFTER the age of the 32 for a deal of five or six years to make any sense at all.

Reading the last couple of pages, it seems more and more about pretending that projections are reality and talking about merits of various metrics than it is the player himself. That to me makes little sense unless the player is a very proven and consistent player who is durable. Darvish is not any of that. His innings pitched the last four seasons are as follows: 144.1 -0- 100.1 186.2 And he is entering his 32 year old season. Does this matter at all to anyone? Take a look at the league and study the pitchers who are 32 and above. Go look at guys who were ELITE and CY YOUNG winners or CY YOUNG caliber. Look at CC Sabathia, Adam Wainright, Zach Grienke, Justin Verlander, etc....ALL OF THEM had precipitous declines at age 32. ALL OF THEM. Darvish has nowhere near the record of success, the pedigree or any other indicator you want to compare next to what those guys did from age 26 to 30. What the heck is it about Darvish that makes anyone believe he is going to be the rare exception? I see people want to sign this guy for 5 or 6 years in the neighborhood of 150/160. I see people saying, "why should anyone care about how they spend money". Well, I could not disagree more, with this particular player. Signing free agent starting pitching to long term deals when the player is already into their 30s rarely works out these days. To put it bluntly, I don't like Darvish. He stated very clearly during the WBC in '09 that he had no intention of playing in the majors. Then, a few years later, he is a major leaguer. Fair or not, I also don't like what went down in the post season. That right there spoke volumes to me. I don't want him on this team. My bias aside (I will admit I do not like him) he will not make us THAT much better and there is a good chance he ends up on the shelf or simply going into a decline. To project a major league a major league pitcher with only just over 800 innings major league experience four and five years forward starting at his age 32 season makes so sense to me. None at all. I understand statistics and how most of these metrics are derived, but in the case of Darvish and starting pitching in general, when we are talking about guys entering their age 32 season, those projections are shaky at best. I would say it's 50/50 Darvish is in Japan by age 35. As I speak to fellow Twins fans on this matter, it seems to be more about making a splash in the market than it is making sense. No way on God's green earth do the Twins sign Darvish. At least if they are smart. I don't want a "show me you care" move just to do it. It has to make sense and to me this does not. Sorry.

I cited other reasons. I just don't see why we should go after him given what he seems to be looking for.

There seems to be a Darvish fetish amongst Twins fans and I don't get it. We will need to outbid the entire market for a guy who turns 32 this season, has had arm trouble, hasn't won more than 10 games in a season (despite playing for playoff contenders) since 2013, has pitched more than 150 innings ONCE since 2013, and curled up in the fetal position for the biggest game of his life. We are supposed to move heaven and earth to get this guy? No thanks.

All put aside all the failings that Cross listed, and there are many. I will put aside the fact that he grew up in Pine Bush, NY (which is about 30 miles SW of where I sit right now). I will say this..... Before Nathan even was a Twin he imploded big time for the Giants in the NLDS against the Marlins in 2003. He'd already had started a track record of failure in big spots. I was at a game in Yankee Stadium in May of 09 just after the stadium opened. Mauer and Morneau had both homered (2X for Justin). We were up 4-2 in the ninth and Nathan spit the bit giving up 3 runs and we lost on a walk off single to Melky Cabrera. That started a four game sweep in which we lost the first three games in walk off fashion. Still, I was looking past his propensity to implode in big games. Then everything changed several months later. Forget everything Aaron Cross said, and anything I just said and think about this: After the Phil Cuzzi game in the '09 series Nathan spoke up about the call. That to me was the end of my relationship with Nathan. No way in the world did he have the right to complain about the umpire's call in that game. Had he only give up 2 runs in the ninth and pitched to an 18.00 ERA we are walking off the field in Yankee Stadium with a win. That was the second time he blew a multi-run lead in a playoff game there and he'd done that in May that season at the game I attended. He would have been much wiser to sit down in a corner and keep his mouth shut. We aren't scuffling in extra innings if it weren't for his collapse. As a veteran player he REALLY needed to keep his mouth shut, unless he was willing to tell reporters.... "We can complain about the umpiring, but this game is on me. We aren't even playing extra innings if I do my job" It was up to him to take ownership or whine about the umpiring. That was for the rest of the team to do. Not for him. Joe Nathan is sort of a "hometown guy" for me, but I pulled the plug on him after his postgame remarks in that series. It was a HUGE disappointment for me to hear his complaints (even if they were right). He was not in a position to say anything, imo

It's funny. I see plenty of articles written here with very detailed breakdowns of mechanics, tendencies and advanced stats. Never on this topic. I think it is a reasonable question about something that is important to this team and player yet you have people who just want to shut down any discussion about Mauer not being able drive a baseball with any consistency. Presenting the hard data would make Joe look bad and that's not really going to go on here. Quite frankly, what he does is abnormal. The shift they have put on him really makes you wonder why he simply won't adapt. It has to be he can't because if he's going to use the opposite field almost exclusively that would be incredibly obtuse. Could he that clueless about what happened? Doesn't he EVER see a mistake? Isn't there a happy zone someplace where he can haul off and turn on the ball? Isn't OK to gear up every so often?? I think his bat lag through the zone and his obsession with walks has made him into what he is. I think his approach (more than the concussion) is what explains his terrible drop off. As time went on, Joe doubled down on that approach and the league said...."Thank you for making things easier. Don't go changing" Now he's stuck. He could not change if he tried.

I was astonished to see Gibson come out to pitch the 8th, but why not?. In the month of July Gibson has gone six innings and beyond 3 out of 4 times. Those three instances are the only three times he has tossed over 100 pitches in a game this season. Is he on to something? Doubtful. I suppose he has room to prove SOMETHING this year. Maybe he can prove the naysayers wrong and finish strong? I won't say he can't, but I am not betting on it.

This "Gibson is the best option we have" case being made (you are saying that when you assume it is not possible to find a better option) really is silly. Hand me the crystal ball you got if you think that. You mean to say we can't try a few guys in his spot and see if we get anything better than an almost 6.00 ERA. We really can't think that way? You are going to throw cold water on that concept? Tell me how we improve if you aren't willing to change or take a chance?? Whether or not we can find what turns out to be a better option in house this season matters not. Gibson needs to go. Are we REALLY going to re-up him next year for that same reason: "no better option"?? This is where Falvey and Levine have their work cut out for them. Find a pitcher who can start that is better than Kyle Gibson. DO SOMETHING because the pitching continues to be a big BIG problem and until it improves we are kidding ourselves. Sounds like there are a few people here who don't think that is feasible in 2017. Why not? We could do something this organization never does: PURGE. I am not even talking about a long term solution. I am talking about getting a player (Gibson) who is bad for the overall culture OFF THE TEAM. This is an addition by subtraction thing. This team does not need Kyle Gibson around. We don't need him in another role either. We have seen enough. Get rid of him

That was in the fairly early stages of Blackburn's career. I am talking about what the Twins did with him in 2012.

Colon or anyone else simply needs to be a DIFFERENT option. We don't need to worry about anyone being better because most AAAA arms can probably replace what Gibson has done this year. Even if pitcher X does slightly worse than Gibson (and you can't do much worse), we rid ourselves of a horrible pitcher who has long outstayed his useful life.

There are no better options? I don't believe that is true. We could probably spot start Duffey and get better results even though he is pitching badly as of late. Whether or not there are not better options, this is a pitcher in what is supposed to be his prime, nearing an arbitration year, pitching to a well over 5.00 for the second year in a row. FIND SOMEONE if there are no better options. Just get rid of this guy

His career trajectory is similar to that of Nick Blackburn. Can we do the same thing we did with Blackburn if Gibson's next outing resembles this last one? Honestly, why even have him?

I don't know what problems we are solving sitting at our computers. It is nice to have what we think are intelligent discussions, but this is only BASEBALL. Not a real big deal. I watch the team at my own peril. I'm in it for the long haul. If things go wrong I have no trouble with fans who want to rag on the organization because, quite frankly, when you come in last place 5 out of the last 6 years after building a new stadium it is kind of warranted. Plus, I see humor in rants. When someone rants on this team I don't see any angry person who hates life. I see a fan simply venting and a lot of times I can relate. Again, it is just BASEBALL. We aren't doing anything all that important here. Whatever. I guess some people like chocolate, some like vanilla. I like Rocky Road

I would love nothing more than to do that. Thank you for not insulting me

Yes, he is fast and that is a fact. His OPS is still under .600 (also a fact) Let's hope he continues to hit. Let's hope he is figuring it out with the bat, otherwise his speed is only a novelty. Hate to take this slant on it, but we have seen a number of "Byron Buxton is fast" articles. I want to see a "Byron Buxton can HIT" article someday.

He deserved the criticism for being an awful hitter for almost 700 at bats. I will not apologize for the criticisms I made a little over a week ago. Nor should anyone else. He has been one of the worst hitters in the major leagues over the last three seasons. That is not a take. It is a fact and it isn't mean spirited or wrong to point it out

The common rebuttal I have been given for sending him back to AAA is, "he won't learn anything down there" Oh really? Like he's learning anything up here? One thing anyone should notice with Buxton if you watch his game and listen to his quotes on hitting is that he is not confident and he has literally no though process behind his at bats. He also has tinkered and messed with mechanics over and over. Currently we have a player who is deserving of a promotion even though his name doesn't have the cache Buxton does. What are we really trying to do here? Can we at some point as fans admit that he just is not ready to step into a major league batter's box? I will admit I was part of a large crew of folks who thought it was best to call him up in 2015 even though he was rushed. I felt that way at the time because I hoped he would show flashes and that he would fill in bad spots with more flashes of goodness until he eventually became solid. Well, it's now three shots he has had and he is not even close. In my opinion, he has to go down. NOW. In the name of his development AND accountability this cannot go on any longer. The team has surprised us this year and we are near the top of the division in July. Why not send him down and call up Granite? Too "kneejerk"?? Please. Maybe Granite can prove he belongs and now we have another outfielder to consider. It's best to set up some competition. I don't think it is a good thing to give one guy special treatment (coddling) it is starting to become that with Buxton. Send him down like you would any other player and hopefully he goes to Rochester and picks up the pace. You cannot let a guy experience this much failure and pretend it won't have long term implications on the mental part of his game. You also cannot give one guy endless rope while another deserving player stays down. It is not a good thing for an organization, Most of all, confidence seems to be an issue with Buxton. The mental part of the game is something that can prevent a guy from becoming a major leaguer and he isn't going to get it by continually failing at the major league level.

Buxton has 16 defensive runs saved this year, but he has just 32 runs produced this year with his offense and that is flat out terrible. I am not saying defense does not matter. It certainly does. However, compared to pitching and offense defense is a distant third