Tom Froemming

With all the technological advancements made in baseball, its easy to get lost in the mess. There's new stats that make zero sense to some people, but the issue is just understanding what they tell us. Batting average and ERA are easy to grasp. What percentage of this batter's at-bats have resulted in hits? How many earned-runs does this pitcher give up on average in 9 innings? These are how we read stats, because they answer our questions. So what question does launch angle and exit velocity answer? "It just shows how hard a player hits the ball.", is an answer that makes me cringe because its so far from the truth. Yes, it is used to see who's hitting the ball the hardest, but that's not a question we need answered. The question shouldn't be "how hard can he hit it?", rather we should be asking "how well does he hit it?" and "how often does he hit it well?".
 
What makes for a well hit ball? The magic numbers lie between 10 to 30 degrees. Batted balls that are hit at these angles off the bat have the greatest chance to fall for a hit (or better yet home runs). Why does this matter? Because if a player is able to hit a ball consistently this way, he will have more hits (higher batting average for those who will never be convinced that Statcast is a good thing). Even if a guy can't hit the ball 100+ mph, he can have success with a good launch angle.
 
There is an opposite end of the Statcast love-hate spectrum. Those that gush over exit velocity and nothing else. This group of people are just as bad, if not worse, than Statcast haters. This is the over excitable group that is driving the non-believers away. Don't get me wrong, I love it when guys hit 110+ mph moonshots. But if a guy hits a ball 100 mph and grounds out to third, its just a ground out. Launch angle should be the most important thing we look at when it comes to analyzing hitters. Is it okay for players to have low launch angles? Absolutely! Dee Gordon is wasting his time if he's trying to lift the ball over the fence because he's built and has the ability to slap the ball up the middle and leg out singles. For players like Mookie Betts or Chris Taylor, launch angle is extremely important because they lack size and and blazing speed. Betts (5'9" 180lbs) and Taylor (6'1" 190lbs) look the exact opposite of power hitters, but they are still able to hit 20+ homers a year.

Chris Taylor is a perfect example of a player that revived his career by improving his average launch angle. Below are his average launch angle, average exit velocity, % of batted balls hit between 15 and 30 degrees, along with his corresponding stats.
 
2015 and 2016
Avg. Launch Angle............................11.0 deg.
Avg. Exit Velocity...............................86.6 mph
Stats: .187/.236/.277
 
 
2017 and 2018
Launch Angle....................................12.0 deg.
Exit Velocity.......................................87.1 mph
Stats: .281/.344/.488
 
It took just a 1 degree increase in average launch angle and 0.5 mph increase in average exit velocity to go from a -1.0 WAR player to a 4.9 WAR player. Chris Taylor is not the only example either.
 

Here is another example, this time looking at Anthony Rendon. This was a player who was already a solid hitter who was able to progresses even more.
 
2015 and 2016
Avg. Launch Angle............................14.5 deg.
Avg. Exit Velocity...............................90.5 mph
Stats: .268/.346/.419
WAR: 4.4
2017 and 2018
Launch Angle....................................18.2 deg.
Exit Velocity.......................................89.6 mph
Stats: .300/.399/.521
WAR: 6.0
 
Rendon's improvements also show us that a slight decrease in average exit velocity does not cause is drop in offensive production. Rendon also increased his average launch angle by 3.7 degrees and had a huge jump in offensive value, making him one of the most underrated third basemen in the MLB.
 
In closing, if I was not able to change anyone's mind about the use of Statcast data, I hope I was able to prove that this information has a place in the game. Radar guns were once seen as overrated too when collecting data on pitchers.

I am always interested in the back stories – some of which are not typical baseball anecdotes. Each year now we celebrate #42 – in fact most of you reading this have already identified Jackie Robinson from his number and we can look at his Hall of Fame plaque and celebrate his strength of character as well as his baseball prowess. And there is no doubt his ten-year career is Hall Worthy. He averaged 6.1 WAR with a peak of 9.7 despite the hate and abuse he endured daily. His career average was .311 and he had just under 20 stolen bases per year at a time when his baserunning forced a change in the opposing teams fielding and pitching strategies. He had a career OPS+ of 132. Late summer saw pitcher Dan Bankhead join Jackie on the team.
 
Of course, he was not the first black player in the majors – that would be Moses Fleetwood Walker of the Toledo Blue Stockings, however, because of the racism of the game’s biggest star – Cap Anson – he was forced not to play against the Chicago team and it established a racist code that would not be broken until Robinson over a half century later. Yes, I do resent Anson and I admit that he was not the only racist, but no one else had his leverage or sought to use it like he did.
 
Mid-season of 1947 the American League brought in it’s first black player – Larry Doby with the Cleveland Indians. He had played for the Newark Eagles in the Negro League and like Jackie, served in the war before breaking in to MLB. In his second season with Cleveland he was joined by the already ancient – Satchell Paige – and they won the world series. He accumulated 49.6 WAR in 12 ½ years with a 286 BA and 135 OPS+. He too is in the Hall of Fame.
 
Less recognized was Hank Thompson and Willard Brown who played for the St Louis Browns in 1947. Coming in two days apart they were the third and fourth African American players to integrate the game. Thompson was a third baseman with seven seasons in the Negro Leagues and was known for his strong arm. He played nine years of MLB before being sold to the Minneapolis Millers. He achieved 24.8 WAR in 8 ½ years batting 267 with a 116 OPS+. When Brown joined him it was the first game with two African Americans starting for one team. “Home Run” Brown had played in the Negro Leagues for 13 years before coming to MLB and he opened his career with an inside the park home run, but racism drove him from the game and back to the Negro Leagues.
 
1948 saw the Dodgers add another Hall of Famer – Roy Campanella and Cleveland add Hall of Famer Satchel Paige. Campanella suffered a terrible car accident and paralysis to end his career. The Catcher had 34.1 WAR for 10 years, batted 276, averaged 24 homeruns and had 123 OPS+. How does his stats match up with Mauer before his concussion? Roy had three MVPs.
 
Entering 1949 only three teams had added black players and only one team – The New York Giants with a very old Monte Irvin would add to the ranks. Irvin had only 7 1/2 years left on his Hall of Fame career, but he made the most of them with 21.3 WAR, 293 BA, and 125 OPS+. The other teams that had black players added to their rosters too. Minnie Minoso joined the Cleveland Indians and should be in the Hall of Fame. He had 50.3 WAR, nine times an all-star, a 298 average and OPS+ of 130. Luke Easter was 33 and played only three full seasons out of six that he appeared in with 9.3 WAR, 274BA and 125 OPS+ . The Dodgers added too – Don Newcombe. Newcombe would go 149 – 90, 3.56 ERA with 38 WAR in 10 years with a two year military service breaking up the consecutive years of playing.
 
Going in to the 1950’s the braves added Sam Jethroe in centerfield. He would achieve 8.7 WAR in three years and was 33 when he debuted. In 1951 the league had its biggest surge in black players. The Braves added Luis Marquez, the Giants Ray Noble and Artie Wilson, and a guy named Willie Mays! I do not need to give Mays stats to remind you of his status. The White Sox joined the list of teams with two signings in 1951 – Sam Hairston and Bob Boyd, while the Indians continued to add with pitcher Sam Jones (102- 101).
 
Entering the 1952 season there were 16 teams and only six had African-American players. In 1953 Philadelphia (Now Oakland) A’’s added Bob Trice and the Cubs hit the jackpot with Ernie Banks! This meant half the teams now had crossed the colored barrier.
 
1954 saw that jump to ¾ when Curt Roberts signed with the Pirates, Tom Alston with the Cardinals, Nino Escalero and Chuck Harmon joined the Reds and Carlos Paula signed with our predecessors – the Senators.
The Yankees finally moved in 1955 with Elston Howard, a terrific catcher, who might have been a HOF except for having to share a position with Yogi Berra. John Kennedy signed with the Phillies in 1957 leaving just two teams without African American representation.
 
Detroit with the largest African American population of any city in the US was next to move and signed Ozzie Virgil, Sr in 1958! It took the team 11 years to get the courage or rather to overcome their biases.
 
And this left Boston. It was 1959 when the last team broke the color barrier and signed Elijah "Pumpsie" Green. Green pinch-ran for Vic Wertz in a 2-1 loss to the Chicago White Sox. Later in 1959 Earl Wilson became the first black pitcher to play for the Boston Red Sox.
 
According to baseball historians the Red Sox held a try out for Jackie Robinson in 1945 but decided not to sign him. They could have been first but ended up last and certainly lost out on a lot more. Jackie led the Dodgers to six pennants and one World Series victory in his 10 seasons in Brooklyn. We know how long it took the Red Sox to get their series title.
 
As bad as that miss was, two years later, the Red Sox had a chance to sign Willie Mays, but passed again.
Pumpsie Green retired in 1963 after five seasons in the big leagues, four in Boston and one as a sub for the New York Mets. He hit .246 added 2.9 War, 721 OPS.
 
Think of what this initial class meant to baseball – Hall of Famers: Jackie Robinson, Larry Doby, Satchel Paige, Roy Campanella, Ernie Banks, Monte Irvin, and Willie Mays. Add to that list Hank Aaron who also debuted in the Negro League before signing with the Braves. Plus all-stars – Elston Howard and Minnie Minoso. Considering the time from Fleetwood Walker to Jackie Robinson it is acceptable to look at the baseball records with some question marks.

With the 2018 season right around the corner, perhaps the biggest topic in baseball circles right now is player projections. Whether it is for fantasy purposes, or for trying to predict how your favorite team is going to play this season, people can’t get enough of them. So, I decided to create my own projections for each player on the Twins 40-man roster, and then see how my projections stack up versus some of the other more prominent projection systems.
 
The systems that I used to compare are PECOTA, which is found on Baseball Prospectus, along with ZiPS and Steamer, which can both be found on Fangraphs. Please note that not all of the systems use the same formula when calculating WAR. Additionally, the ZiPS projections for playing time assume a full seasons worth of work, even for players who will most likely spend most of the season in the minor leagues.
 
In the first edition we will be looking at the starting pitchers that are currently on the Twins 40-man roster.
 
RHP Jose Berrios
 


These projection systems are notorious for underrating potential year-to-year improvement from younger players. Personally, I see Jose Berrios taking another step forward in 2018. If Berrios can make this step forward, the Twins could be looking at the potential ACE of their staff.
 
RHP Lance Lynn
 


Much has been made about Lance Lynn’s 3.43 ERA in 2017 being much lower than his peripheral stats suggested it should be that. This explains a lot of low expectations that PECOTA and Steamer have for him. While I do see Lynn taking a step back this year, it is hard to see his ERA inflating by nearly a run and a half, especially from a guy who has never had an ERA above 3.97 in his career.
 
RHP Jake Odorizzi
 


In a very similar way to Lynn, Jake Odorizzi put up an ERA in 2017 that was a fair amount lower than his underlying numbers suggested. A couple factors that lead to this were the spike in his walk rate, which was nearly a walk per nine higher than his career average, and the increase in his HR/FB%, which rose from his 9.9% career average prior to 2017, up to 15.5% in 2017. If Odorizzi can bring these numbers back to his career norms, he should have no problem maintaining his numbers from last season.
 
RHP Ervin Santana
 


Ervin Santana got off to a great start last season, posting a 1.75 ERA through May. However, over the last four months of the season, Santana had an ERA over four. Given Santana’s age and track record, it can be expected that we will see more of the latter from Santana in 2018. The big question mark for Santana entering this season will be his ability to come back from the injury to his pitching hand.
 
RHP Kyle Gibson
 


Kyle Gibson is hoping to build off a strong end to 2017, where he posted a 2.92 ERA over his final 8 starts of the season. While this could be looked at as a sign of optimism that Gibson has turned a corner, the truth is Gibson benefited from facing weak offenses in those starts, as not one of his 8 opponents ranked higher than 19th in runs scored.
 
RHP Phil Hughes
 


Phil Hughes is viewed at by many as a thorn in the side of the Twins pitching staff. His inability to stay healthy, along with poor performance when he is healthy, have provided a real weak spot for the Twins over the last couple of seasons. Unfortunately for the Twins, Hughes is still owed $26.4M over the next two seasons, which is about the only thing guaranteeing him a roster spot as we begin 2018.
 
LHP Adalberto Mejia
 


Adalberto Mejia was a fine pitcher for the Twins last season and looked to be a lock for the Twins rotation entering the winter. However, Mejia fell victim to the surprisingly slow offseason, which enabled the Twins to add two new starters to their rotation. With Mejia’s flexibility, given that he could still be optioned, he has become the odd man out in the Twins rotation. Mejia will most likely serve as the first man called up from AAA when the Twins need a spot start throughout the season, or if they need depth due to injuries.
 
LHP Stephen Gonsalves
 


If there is a minor league pitcher that I expect to breakout this year and help the Twins in 2018 it is Stephen Gonsalves. It is hard to remember the last time that the Twins had a pitching prospect with as high of a floor as Gonsalves. Unlike Mejia, whose opportunities with the big club might mostly be dictated on opportunity, Gonsalves has the ability to force the front office to find a spot for him on the MLB roster if he is pitching well enough in Rochester.
 
RHP Fernando Romero
 


The other minor league candidate that has a real shot of forcing his way into the 2018 Twins rotation is Fernando Romero. Romero was lights out throughout the spring and has the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter for the Twins. Romero isn’t as refined of a pitcher as Gonsalves quite yet, but he is quickly closing the gap.
 
RHP Aaron Slegers
 


Much like Mejia, Aaron Slegers is another pitcher who was hurt by the Twins additions of both Odorizzi and Lynn. If it wasn’t for that, Slegers would have had an opportunity to serve a bigger role for the Twins this year than he did in 2017. Though, as it stands, it is looking like Slegers will be pegged into the role of a spot starter again this season.
 
RHP Felix Jorge
 


Felix Jorge made a surprise start for the Twins in 2017, after getting called up from AA. After an unsuccessful outing, he was sent back to Chattanooga, where he continued his strong 2017 for the Lookouts. Jorge will most likely spend much of 2018 in Rochester and may get a spot start or two as a September call-up.
 
LHP Dietrich Enns
 


Acquired as part of the trade that sent Jamie Garcia and cash to the Yankees, Dietrich Enns is a pitcher that has had a lot of success at the minor league level, with a 1.88 ERA over 6 career minor league season. Enns will spend most of the season as part of the deep Rochester pitching staff, but if he is pitching well he will be in consideration to receive a spot start or two throughout the season.
 
RHP Zack Littell
 


As the other piece that the Twins received in the Jamie Garcia trade, Zack Littell is a little bit further away from the bigs than Enns. However, at just 22, and 2/3 of a season at AA under his belt, Littell is a pitcher with definite upside for the Twins. Despite this, Littell still remains a long shot to break through with the Twins before September.
 
RHP Lewis Thorpe
 


Lewis Thorpe was surprised himself when the Twins added him to the 40-man roster last November. It is hard to believe that Thorpe will have much of a shot at helping the big-league team in 2018, as he is still working his way back after missing all of 2015 and 2016 with injuries. Thorpe could see a few relief outings for the Twins in September if he stays healthy.

As most of us know, April in Minnesota can be brutal. Snow, sleet, and rain accompanied by cold temperatures are always a possibility early in the season. The old saying April showers bring May flowers is thrown around everywhere, but it especially rings true in Minnesota. With the Twins having a 14 game home stand beginning the first week in April, and having 18 games total for the month, weather becomes a huge factor for the Twins’ attendance early in the year. Even the most die-hard baseball fans find it difficult to sit outside at a game when it is cold and raining. This makes me wonder why so many northern teams get scheduled to have early home games in the first place, when it is known that weather affects attendance, but that isn’t my job so I won’t try to tackle it.
 
April weather is definitely detrimental to the Twins’ attendance numbers, but it’s also going to hurt to lose All-Star and Cy Young vote-getter Ervin Santana, whom is still recovering from a right middle finger injury and will be out until at least May after having surgery. Missing him for a month and the weather could potentially make people wait until summer nights to come enjoy a game, but I say the time to make it to a game is now.
 
There are a ton of reasons to be excited about the Twins and to make it to Target Field in April; I could go on forever. But to save us all time, here are the top 10 reasons why you should get your tickets and go see a game.
 
1. Home Opener, the Giveaway, and the Future
The first home game of the year is always a big deal. It means spring is in full swing and baseball is back. It means there are 78 more home games to attend and good times to be had at the ballpark. The reason there is not 80 games this year is because there are 2 games in Puerto Rico versus the Indians that are home games for the Twins. The giveaway for opening day is always good, but the sweatshirt this year is awesome. Even if there’s a snow storm, we should all be willing to weather it on Opening Day to get these sweet sweatshirts. Another thing that can’t be over looked is Jose Berrios’s first Opening Day start. The guy flat out has some nasty stuff in his pitching arsenal and has showed moments of dominance that should make us all excited. He has been a Twins top prospect and could be the ace for years to come. May 18th of last year he went 7 and 2/3 innings with 11 K’s, a walk, and 2 hits against a talented Rockies lineup that was 3rd in runs scored. This is the kind of player the Twins want to see and that will get fans to show up every time he pitches. He is a must-watch in the month of April and hopefully, for months to come.
 
2. The World Series Champions are coming to Town
Every baseball fan can agree; it is always a big deal to see the reigning World Series Champs play. The Astros led the league in runs scored with 5.5 runs a game last year, and with offense this good and the AL MVP on your team in Jose Altuve, you’re not going to want to miss watching them in action. The Astros’ offense is good enough that perhaps they could slide by with mediocre pitching, but the Astros have great pitching too. Verlander, McCullers, and Kuechel could put on a quite a show for us, and the Twins are slated to get the number one pitcher in game one. Regardless of how early it is, the only chance to see Houston at Target Field barring a playoff series is early on, April 9th-11th, so don’t miss it.
 
3. Seattle and the Potential Hall of Famers
Ichiro, who will turn 45 in October, is the definition of a living legend. Imagine how much more he would have accomplished in the major leagues if he hadn’t spent as long in Japan. He has 3,080 hits in the Big leagues, and he could have had even more if he had come to America earlier. Who knows how often he will be in the lineup or how often he will play, but this could be the last time he comes to Minnesota as a professional baseball player. I’m confident that he will be enshrined into the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, and besides this great accomplishment, he’s also a great individual. As great as he is, he isn’t the only player to see on Seattle worth the price of admission. Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, and Nelson Cruz make up a list of players who have had impressive careers. Felix and Robinson could be pushing towards the Hall if they continue the dominance they have had in the past.
 
4. Logan Morrison
Many people suspected that the Twins were going to try adding pitching to their lineup this year, and they did just that via trade. Jake Odorizzi is one of the new players to join the Twins’ pitching force, and I will touch on him later. It is known that the free agent market has been historically slow this year as many top free agents, such as Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb, still remain unsigned. The Twins had money to spend this year as they have a lot of young players in pre-arbitration seasons, and many thought it would be on a pitcher. The Twins got that pitcher in Lance Lynn and it was cheap enough to have money left over. The Twins enjoyed success with Eduardo Escobar as he hit a career high 21 homeruns, and many people thought that would suffice with Sano, Mauer, and Escobar holding down the DH and corner duties. Sano has sexual assault allegations against him, and what the MLB does suspension wise is still up in the air. Enter Logan Morrison, who increased his launch angle 12 degrees from the year prior, and who also had a career year with 38 homeruns. The Twins saw a cheap option to get a hitter who could help DH for $6.5 million guaranteed. This is a steal for someone who had the season he did, though it may be hard to repeat. There is a vesting option depending on at-bats, but seeing him put on a Twinkies jersey and go to bat for us will be exciting.
 
5. A Strong Bullpen
The Twins’ Bullpen has had a fair share of ups and down over the past ten years. Despite this, the Twins’ list of all-star closers is composed of Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and Brandon Kintzler, and teams with this many closers of that caliber must have good bullpens. But actually, the twins bullpen has ranked 23rd in ERA over the last 5 years .The bullpen also includes names like Caleb Thielbar and Jared Burton. Good news for the Twins though is that entering this offseason with a weaker bullpen means free agent relievers were abundant. The Twins added three veteran relievers who had solid seasons last year and will be penciled in as contributors this year. Fernando Rodney was successful on 39 of 45 save opportunities, but he did have a 4.23 ERA. This scares a lot of folks, but his FIP of 3.03 shows solid chance for that ERA to fall this year. Addison Reed was another signee and reminds me of a poor man’s Andrew Mille, but that by no means is a slam. He doesn’t get the recognition he deserves, but is a solid reliever in the 7th and 8th innings. His 2.84 ERA, if replicated, will go a long way in the Twins’ pen. Zach Duke is another player to look at. He is a bounce back candidate whose move to the bullpen has had ups and downs, but his FIP of 2.85 in 2016 shows his potential as a reliever. Last year, that number was in the 5’s, but I remain optimistic. All three look to contribute and help hold leads late in games or at least keep them close, so this electric Twins’ offense can have a shot late in the game.
 
6. New Pitchers
When the Twins traded for Jake Odorizzi, they made a move for a pitcher that didn’t cost much on the prospect front and saved money compared to going out and getting a starter. The Twins, who have made brilliant moves all offseason, do so yet again by signing Lance Lynn to a 1 year, twelve million dollar deal. Lynn was arguably the third or fourth best free agent starter on the market and, according to reports, chose to play here over money and financial security. Too bad Yu Darvish didn’t feel this way. Lynn has had 5 seasons with 175 inning plus and an ERA below 4. A drop in his strike out rate and a rising FIP have put into question if he can maintain this consistency, but that’s a bet I’m willing to take. When Ervin returns, a pitching staff of Santana, Berrios, Lynn, Odorizzi, and Gibson is far better than last years, and it’s quite intriguing. It would be totally worth coming out to watch early in the season.
 
7. Nothing Falls but Rain Drops
Nothing falls but raindrops was the motto of the Twins’ outfield last year, and they stuck to their words. The outfield of Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario, according to DRS, saved the Twins 34 defensive runs last year. All of these guys make frequent appearances in the highlight reel, and they seem to get better each year. As they enter their primes, this will be an exciting time to be a Twins fan and a Twins pitcher. It be noted that the trio also had 18 outfield assists last year. They are one of the most exciting outfields to watch, and that will stay the course this year and early in April when the raindrops, do in fact, drop, as we expect they will.
 
8. Games with Canadians
The Toronto Blue Jays have been an awesome team to watch the past few years with stars like Donaldson, Bautista, Stroman, Ozuna, and defensive wizard Kevin Pillar scattered throughout their lineup. On top of being a team with all of these players, they have a fan base that likes to travel. Obviously there are probably some Canadians who are big Twins fans being that they are closest to Minnesota, but Toronto is Canada’s team and they travel well. It is easier for people from Winnipeg to come to Minneapolis and they will, rain or shine. With all the changes that the Twins have made, coming out and supporting them would be huge in this series as the Toronto fans have a history of making their presence felt at Target Field.
 
9. Byron Buxton
Who doesn’t want to watch Byron Buxton play? Search YouTube and you could spend a whole day watching highlight reel catch after catch provided by Mr. Buxton. His defense is stellar and he runs the bases so well and effortlessly. Last year, he was 29 of 30 on stolen bases, and the one time he was caught stealing he slid over the bag after initially beating the ball there. He has the fastest home to home time ever recorded in a game in the Statcast era. His gap hits are often stand-up triples due to his league-leading sprint speed of 30.2 ft/s in 2017. This helps his defensive prowess and makes him one of the league’s must-see. The Twins also have a Giveaway for Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton’s gold glove awards in April so you won’t want to miss that.
 
10. Presentations
Paul Molitor won manager of the year last year and Byron Buxton and Brian Dozier both won Gold Gloves. There was a lot to celebrate last year along with the Wild Card appearance. There are two ceremonies that will happen pre-game on different days in April. April 7th versus the Mariners, there will be a ceremony congratulating Paul on winning AL manager of the year. I attended the World Series pre-game celebration last year and these events are things you don’t want to miss out on. I would try and get tickets to this one because it is a Saturday game, and it will be a great way to start off the season. The other event I mentioned is a Friday night Gold Glove presentation for Buxton and Dozier. A T-shirt giveaway on this day makes it a hot ticket and another must-attend event.
 
There are a lot of exciting things surrounding Twins baseball this year. The reasons listed above, along with a hope for a successful season, are just a few of the reasons you don’t want to miss Twins baseball this April.

Did you know that marine scientists are making an effort to replace the name starfish with sea star? Neither did I, but these are the kinds of things you learn when you have a toddler (who decided it’s so important to know all the animals and what sounds they make?) Anyway, maybe it’s also time for us baseballogists to review the game’s nomenclature.
 
The purpose behind renaming the starfish is due to the fact that it’s not, in fact, a fish at all. Per National Geographic, sea stars are more closely related to sea urchins and sand dollars. Makes sense, right? It seems to me like we could apply that same logic to the following terms:
 
Baseball: Let’s just start right at the top. Calling the game baseball makes sense, but calling the actual ball itself a baseball? That’s ludacris if you really think about it. If anything, it should be called a seam ball. Or, the way things are going lately, maybe a space ball.
 
Foul line/foul pole: If you hit one of these two things, it’s a fair ball. So why not just call them the fair line and fair pole?
 
No hitter: This one works, but I always felt like maybe it’s too on the nose. You don’t call a shutout a no runner or a no scoresy. No-no is pretty solid, but how about we start calling them blankers? This has a double meaning: 1) The pitcher has put up nothing but blanks on the scoreboard, and 2) The opposing hitters probably spent the entire game saying “mother (blank)-er” to themselves.
 
Instant replay: Replay.
 
Batting average: Hit percentage. “Batting average” isn’t nearly as descriptive as its brethren in the triple slash line (on-base percentage and slugging percentage).
 
Lineup card: Beat writer photo bait.
 
Extra innings: This will remain the term for major league baseball, but in the minor leagues this will now be referred to as the “Intentional Walk and Bunt Showcase.”
 
Hall of Fame: National Museum of Baseball. In very fine print under that would be listed “also includes the Hall of Baseball Writers’ Popularity Club.”
 
Sacrifice Bunt: Sacrifice out.
 
Productive out: Advancing out. The productivity part of it is highly subjective.
 
Scoring position: This term is still considered current, but Byron Buxton’s ability to score from first base has caused this to be transitioned into the “under review” stage.
 
Small ball: This term is also currently under review. If the baseballs continue to be juiced, this will be updated to “bad-idea ball.”
 
Umpire: This is still current, but in a transitional stage. Preparations are being made to change this to either Mr. Roboto, Johnny 5 or RoboCop.
 
That’s all I could come up with for now, but it is your duty as a fellow baseballogist to contribute to this project. Please offer up your own update suggestions in the comments.
 
Have something more to say? Perfect! Start your own blog here at Twins Daily.

The Twins made another exciting off-season move this weekend, signing ex-Rays and Marlins 1B/DH Logan Morrison to a 1 year deal worth $6.5 million. The Twins continued their strong push in free-agency this winter. Morrison’s deal has a team option which will vest at 600 plate appearances. With escalators, he can earn a maximum of $16.5 million over the next two seasons. It’s worth noting that the Twins have positioned themselves carefully and strategically this off-season, maintaining financial flexibility through inking their additions to one or two year deals. Minnesota remains poised with a deep pool of talent on the farm to make in-season acquisitions if and when necessary. Most projection systems have Morrison as around a 1-2 win player in 2018, which, if true, is another bargain for the cost-opportunistic Twins front office in a stagnant winter of free agency.
 
Morrison is a fascinating player. His power surge made him the Statcast poster boy for the 2017 season. Before 2017 Morrison’s career high for HR was 23, in his first full season with the Marlins in 2011. Adjustments in Morrison’s approach at the plate led to an increase in HR from 14 to 38 (albeit with considerably more plate appearances), an increase in OBP from .319 in 2016 to .353 in 2017, and a huge climb in BB%, from 9.3% in 2016, to 13.5% in 2017, (good for 14th in the league among hitters who made at least 500 PA). Per Statcast, Morrison increased his launch angle from 12.1 degrees to 17.4 degrees in 2017 in an attempt to hit more balls in the air. Boy, did that ever work. Along with his adjusted launch angle, how did Morrison’s approach at the plate differ in 2017? Is his 2017 season a sign of things to come, or a statistical anomaly?
 
David Laurila of Fangraphs captured some interesting comments from Morrison that get at the heart of his different approach as of 2017:
 
‘I’ve looked at the all-stars in the league, and what they believe. I’ve heard guys say if they fly out 3 or 4 times a night, that’s a good night. I was always taught to hit the ball on the ground and run, and I’m not even fast. Now my ‘back to basics' is hitting a fly ball up the middle (instead of a ground ball up the middle). Valuing that side of it – launch angle and stuff – has helped me a lot.’
 
Morrison’s shift in approach is obvious from the ground-out from a pitch up in the zone when he was still a member of the Marlins, versus the slobberknocker he deposits from Buck Farmer of the Tigers when with the Rays in 2017, where he is clearly sitting on a pitch up.
 




 
Morrison also shared some thoughts on pitch location:
 
‘As far as pitch location, I’m more of an up-and-middle, middle-away guy. I just think there’s a lot of stuff down and in that can get you out if you’re actually looking there.’
 
Morrison showed a tendency in 2017 to ere on the side of pulling the ball, while attempting to jump on pitches middle high. In 2017 Morrison put around 5% more pitches in play to center field than he did in 2016 and reduced his pitches in play to opposite field slightly to boot. This is born out in a heat map of portions of the strike zone Morrison swung at in 2017. This is interesting given the trend of pitchers working fastballs up in the zone which the Rays themselves pioneered. That is exactly what Morrison is looking for.
 


Morrison may well not replicate his incredible 2017. Even if Morrison is a 22-28 home run hitter in 2018, he provides valuable insurance with Miguel Sano expected to begin the season suspended, and adds another potent bat at DH to an already formidable lineup when Sano returns. If Morrison can stay with his approach of hitting fly-balls to center field, a good number of them should exit Target Field as souvenirs this summer.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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This is the next segment in the 2018 Twins top 60 prospect list. You can find the introductory segment that discusses qualifications to be on this list and presents the players who were on the 2017 list but are not in this list here. You can find the list of the previous rankings here: 56-60, 55-51, 46-50 , 41-45, 36-40, 31-35, 26-30, 21-25, 16-20, 11-15, 6-10. You can find all segments in this series here.
Here are players 6-10 in reverse order with their 2017 ranking in parenthesis. Players not in the 2017 top 60 list are indicated by (--)
 
 
5. Fernardo Romero (4)
DOB: 12/24/1994; Age: 22
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'0", Weight: 215 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent
Professional Experience: 6; Highest level: AA (2017)
ETA: 2018
 
Fernando Romero was singed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from the Dominican Republic for on November 4th, 2011 with a $260K bonus. The San Juan de la Maguana native spending his age 17 2012 season in the Dominican Summer League where he pitched in 14 games, 6 starts, for 31 innings, striking out 27 (7.8 K/9, 20.2 K%), walking 14 (4.1 BB/9, 9.7 K-BB%), with a 4.94 ERA, 3.05 FIP, and 1.29 WHIP (.289 BABIP). He made the jump to the Gulf Coast League in 2013. He pitched in 12 games (6 GS) for 45 innings to a 1.60 ERA (2.44 FIP) and 1.00 WHIP (.271 BABIP) and had 47 strikeouts (9.4 K/9, 26 K%) and 13 walks (2.6 BB/9, 18.8 K-BB%.) After only 4 games in single A Cedar Rapids in 2014 he required Tommy John surgery, missing the rest of 2014 and the whole 2015 season. Last season he returned to Cedar Rapids where he started 5 games (28 IP) had 25 K (8.0 K/9, 24.3 K%) and 5 BB (1.6 BB/9, 19.4 K-BB%) with a 1.93 ERA, 2.33 FIP, and 0.82 WHIP (.250 BABIP). He moved to high A Fort Myers late in June where he started 11 games (62-1/3 IP) had 65 K (9.4 K/9, 26.9 K%) and 10 BB (1.4 BB/9, 22.7 K-BB%) with a 1.88 ERA, 2.00 FIP, and 0.93 WHIP (.288 BABIP), improving on his already great Cedar Rapids performance. Last season he pitched in 24 games (23 starts) at AA Chattanooga for a career high 125 innings. He had a 3.53 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 8.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 22 K%, 13.8 K-BB%, and 1.35 WHIP (.328) BABIP. He was shut down in early August due to shoulder impingement. Previously he had a 5 inning limit on his last 5 starts because of the arm. His numbers are deflated because of 8 August starts that he pitched hurt, where he got a 8.38 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and allowed a .372 OBA.
 
Romero has a plus plus fastball that sits at 95-97 mph and has a nasty sinking movement, a plus plus slider that sits 88-92 mph and a close to plus now changeup. After his surgery, Romero came in better shape and he improved his command and control by leaps and bounds, pounding the strike zone and cutting down on walks. His stuff can already play in a major league pen, but Romero has top of the rotation potential and the Twins will explore that. Romero was added to the Twins' 40-man roster the November of 2016, so he will appear in the Twins' Spring Training camp. The shoulder is not much of a concern, and he has a chance to make the team out of Spring Training.
 
Likely 2018 path: Depending on health and on transactions, fighting for a spot in the Twins' rotation. Likely in the majors in 2018, barring injuries, trades etc.
 
 
4. Brent Rooker (--)
DOB: 11/1/1994; Age: 23
Positions: 1B/LF
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'3", Weight: 215 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 1s Round of 2017
Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: A+ (2017)
ETA: 2018
 
Brent Rooker (whose first name is Terry) was drafted by the Twins in the supplemental 1st Round of the 2017 draft as a Junior from Mississippi State. The Germantown, TN native, tore up the Southeast NCCA Conferance last season hitting: .387/.495/.810 with 23 HR (and 18/23 SB) in 248 AB (10.78 AB/HR.) He had 48 walks and struck out 58 times. As a pro he moved to Elizabethton, where he did not loose a beat with the wooden bat, hitting .282/.364/.588 with a .413 wOBA and 145 wRC+ in 99 PA in 22 games. That was enough for a promotion all the way to A+ Fort Myers where, in a league that usually bats come to die, he improved upon his E-town production hitting .280/.364/.552 with a .415 wOBA and 166 wRC+ in 40 games and 162 PA, as a 22 year old, about a full year younger than the average player. And this was the first time he hit with a wooden bat. Rooker played mostly LF at both Elizabethton and Fort Myers, with 11 games at 1B in Florida. His throwing arm does not play outside those two positions, but he is a capable defender in both positions. Strikeouts have been a issue in the pros (21.2% at Elizabethton and 29% at Fort Myers,) but playing a full season and further adjusting with the wood, will help him improve. A player with a great work ethic and makeup, Rooker will be a leader for every team he plays. My impression is that the Twins will fast track him as the heir-apparent to Joe Mauer at first base, thus the aggressive ETA estimate. If he continues to hit at that rate, he might force the Twins' hand ahead of time, since they can use a power RHB in the majors right now.
 
Likely 2018 path: Starting 1B/LF at Chattanooga with potential promotion to the majors based on necessity or a September cup of coffee with the Twins.
 
3. Brusdar Graterol (13)
DOB: 8/26/1998; Age: 18
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'1", Weight: 180 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent signing 2014
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: ELZ (2017)
ETA: 2020
 
This is the third time that Brusdar Graterol has been in this list and every season he has made serious leaps. He was ranked 28th in my 2016 list well before the National media and most of the local media even knew him from Adam. Graterol was signed by the Twins as an international free agent from the Venezuela on August 29, 2014, three days after his 16th birthday, for $150,000. The Calobozo native made only 4 career starts in the DSL before he required Tommy John surgery and moved statewide the summer of 2015. His numbers in those 4 games, as a 16 year old, fully 3 years younger than the league, were video-game like: 11 IP, 17 K, 13.9 K/9, 36.2 K%, 1 BB, 0.8 BB/9, 34 K-BB%, 2.45 ERA, 1.19 FIP, 1.18 WHIP (.444 BABIP.) He returned from the surgery well, adding considerable muscle to his frame and surprised everyone when he added several miles per hour to his fastball when he hit the mount. In 2017 he started the season in the GCL where he pitched 19-1/3 innings in 5 games (2 starts) with a 1.40 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 9.8 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 29.2 K%, 23.6 K-BB%, and 0.72 WHIP (.205 BABIP). He moved to Elizabethton mid-season where he started in 5 games (20-2/3 IP) with a 3.92 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 10.5 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 28.2 K%, 17.7 K-BB%, and a 1.21 WHIP (.300 BABIP.)
 
Graterol is throwing his plus to plus plus fastball at 96-98 mph deep into the games and he can dial it up to triple digits if necessary, supplementing it with a crisp slurve at the 85-87 mph range and a changeup that has improved the last season, but he still needs to command better. He is throwing from a 3/4 delivery that causes deception. Graterol is one of the few pitchers in the Twins' organization with top of the rotation stuff, and his ceiling is higher than any other pitcher in the organization, but he still needs work on command and control, esp. with his secondary offering. The 40 innings he pitched last season were Graterol's career high and he will need to be stretched, potentially slowly because of the elbow.
 
Likely 2018 path: At the Cedar Rapids rotation, potentially after some EST, depending on how the Twins feel about his elbow and the temperatures in the Midwest in April.
 
 
Note: The next two players are very close, and I could have ranked either at the top spot.
 
 
2. Wander Javier (1) SS, 2020
DOB: 12/29/1998; Age: 19
Positions: SS
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'1", Weight: 165 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent 7/2/2015
Professional Experience:2; Highest level: ELZ (2017)
ETA: 2020
 
Wander Javier was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from the Dominican Republic last summer and had yet to play a single professional game, before this season. His $4 million signing bonus topped what the Twins gave Miguel Sano, and any other amateur player ever for signing with them other than Joe Mauer, Kohl Stewart and Byron Buxton. Javier started his pro career last season in the DSL with a bang, playing in 9 games (30 PA), hitting .308/.400/.654 (199 wRC+, .498 wOBA), with 13.3 BB% and 16.7 K% in a league dominated by pitching, as a 17 year old, before he was shut down with a hamstring injury. In 2017 he moved to Elizabethton where he hit .299/.383/.471 with a .390 wOBA and 131 wRC+, in a league where the average player was 2.5 years older. His K% increased to 27.2%, which is more of a data point, than even a slight concern at this point of his career.
 
Javier has the highest upside of any position player in the Twins' organization; his tool-set is similar to Byron Buxton's at that age, but with more power and less speed. At this point, he has 5 above average or better tools, with his arm, and power at above average and fielding, contact and speed approaching plus. Great work ethic, he gives 100% even at drills at Fort Myers and back field spectators are always impressed by his tendency to try to win all race drills. Unlike Miguel Sano who was also signed as shortstop, Javier projects to stay in the position as a professional. He has very smooth hands and confident footwork and body control. Power will come as he fills in. He had an .172 IsoP at 6-1/165 lbs, which will shoot up as he bulks up.
 
Likely 2018 path: Starting SS at Cedar Rapids.
 
 
1. Royce Lewis (--)
DOB: 12/29/1998; Age: 18
Positions: SS/OF
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'2", Weight: 188 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round (1st overall) in 2017
Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: N/A
ETA: 2020
 
Royce Lewis was taken first overall by the Twins in the 2017 draft from J. Serra High School in San Juan Capistrano, CA. The Aliso Viejo, CA, native started his professional career in the GCL. There he hit .271/.390/.414 with a .391 wOBA and 136 wRC+ with 11.9 BB% and 10.7 K% in 36 games and 159 PA. He moved for the final 18 games of the season (80 PA) all the way to Cedar Rapids where he hit .296/.363/.394 with a .348 wOBA and 117 wRC+, and had 7.5 BB% and 20 K%. All that in a league in which the average player was 3.2 years older.
 
Lewis is a five tool player, with his contact, power, and arm slightly trailing the other 2 tools that are plus, with his speed being close to plus plus. Already at 6-2/188 as an 18 year old, he might have to shift position from shortstop to centerfield, or even potentially to third base, a position he played early in High School, if he grows more. His make up, affect, personality, and, workout ethic is off the charts. The Twins have a great to have difficult decision in where to play Lewis and Javier, if they want to keep both as everyday shortstops in full-season leagues. Lewis, who is about half a year younger, has been at a higher level, and I expect him to stay this way as long as he stays at SS. As I indicated earlier Lewis and Javier are very close and either can be ranked as number one at this point. Javier's ceiling is a bit higher with the bat and he is the better shortstop, but Lewis' speed, charisma, and the fact that was notched ahead of Javier by the Twins, give him the nod in these rankings. But they are close.
 
Likely 2018 path: Starting SS at Fort Myers, unless the Twins are willing to have Lewis and Javier play in other positions; in this case, they will both be at Cedar Rapids.
 
 
Next: Summary 1-60 and Organizational Overview

A Closer Look


 
 
At this point, with the Twins busy Presidents Day weekend now officially come to a close, it can be said that most people (and those who frequent Twins Daily, especially) are aware that the hometown club completed a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi. The trade, first reported on Saturday night, had the Twins receiving Jake Odorizzi from the Rays in exchange for mid-level shortstop prospect Jermaine Palacios. Many were waiting for the other shoe to drop, certainly the Twins were not going to get Odorizzi - straight up - for a single prospect, and certainly not if that prospect was outside of their top 10 or 15 rankings.
 
After all, Jermaine Palacios, while a nice prospect and grades well - especially defensively - is 21 years old and playing at High A ball. Keith Law ranked Palacios at 24th best and MLB.com listed him as their 27th best prospect, and well behind other more highly touted shortstops in the system - namely, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon and Wander Javier.
 
So how is it that the Twins achieved this kind of trade? What does that say about Odorizzi?
 
The answer is probably much more complicated, Perhaps the Rays were, indeed, very smitten with Palacios. His tools do grade out to stick at shortstop, albeit his upside looks to be more of a utility man than a regular. It seems unlikely the Twins were bidding against themselves, to be able to get a straight 1 for 1 on Odorizzi, and he has been rumored to several other teams this offseason including the Angels, Nationals, Yankees and Orioles. How is it that among several teams vying for a competent major league pitcher, the Rays weren't able to add more than a single mid-level prospect in return?
 
Lets not forget, either, the Rays top prospect in their system - Willy Adames - is a shortstop and a potential star at the MLB level. Palacios figures to be, at minimum, blocked at the MLB level for several years by Adames who has already progressed to Double-A and was a Southern League All-Star.
 
The Rays not only traded Odorizzi for a single prospect, but the prospect they received is likely system depth? So perhaps the better question is, what does the trade say about the other clubs perceived value of Jake Odorizzi?
 
Who is Jake Odorizzi?
 
Depending on who you ask and under what context, you'll get a different answer to this question. Around Twins social media, I've seen such differing opinions - from "Should he be the Opening Day starter? He may be our best pitcher" to "He's, at best, a number 4 starter". I would contend that he is likely the middle ground between these two, very different statements.
 
As background, Odorizzi was a first round draft pick (2008 32nd Overall, Brewers), reaching Class A in the Brewers system. He was traded in the offseason following the 2009 season to the Kansas City Royals where he, by the 2011 season, was ranked as the Brewers number 1 prospect. While he wasn't the primary piece in the trade that sent him from Kansas City to Tampa Bay (Wil Myers headlined that blockbuster trade, sending James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City in exchange for Myers, Odorizzi, and two others.) he was a key element, ranking as the Royals 4th best prospect in their system at the time.
 
After receiving a cup of coffee in the majors in both 2012 and 2013, accruing only 37 innings pitched through those two seasons, he has 4 full seasons in the majors.
 
By standard metrics he's been a valuable mid-rotation arm - putting up ERA's of 4.13, 3.35 and 3.69 in 2014-'16, with park adjusted xFIP of 3.90, 3.96 and 4.44, respectively. His K/9 average during the first three seasons was a respectable 8.42, while maintaining an average HR/FB rate of 9.9%, or just slightly below the MLB average.
 
 
Wait. What about 2017?
 
Notice that I omitted 2017 from his stat lines? I thought you might. Odorizzi had, by most accounts, an abysmal 2017 season. Limited to 143.1 innings in 2017 after two trips to the Disabled List (hamstring, back injury), he saw regression in multiple areas. His ERA, at 4.14, the worst mark he's had since his rookie season - in conjunction with a horrid 5.43 FIP.
 
His 3.83 BB/9 mark fell well below league average and his HR/FB was an awful (almost impressively awful if I hadn't seen Kyle Gibsons 18%HR/FB mark) of 15% - all while seeing his GB% fall to 30.6%.
 
Unsurprisingly, Odorizzi gave up 30 home runs in 2017 and the long ball indeed was a crux, paired with a 7.52 ERA during the third trip though the order.
 
Fatigue, injury, and you can't even chalk it (all) up to bad luck, with a very low .227 BABIP.
 
 
So, what's the forecast for 2018?
 
Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs has a very compelling article that suggests Odorizzi may be an adjustment away from rectifying some of his issues from last season. His elevated four-seam fastball approach, which reached was tied for the highest 4S fastball height in the major leagues. Sawchik suggest that pairing the increased height with with increased height of his split-change, he may be losing "tunneling", or the vertical separation between the four-seamer and his split-change up, which generally produced his highest whiff rate (22%) in his arsenal of pitches.
 
Twins pitching coach, the newly hired Garvin Alston, has stressed that locating the fastball with his staff is a top priority and it would seem that as Odorizzi's fastball goes, so goes the season for Odorizzi.
 
As Brooks Baseball's player card for Odorizzi reads "(Odorizzi's) four-seam fastball generates an extremely high number of swings and misses compared to other pitchers fourseamers".
 
In a nutshell, if he can effectively locate his fastball and mix in his split-change up with better tunneling, his chances of returning to a pre-2017 Jake Odorizzi are fairly good.
 
 
How Good Is He?
 
Twins Pitching Analyst, Josh Kalk, hired this past December and formerly a Senior Analyst for the Tampa Bay Rays likely has as much information on Odorizzi as anyone, and it would follow that recommendations he may have had on Odorizzi held some weight in regards to the Twins trading for him. That said, what can we expect from him in the upcoming 2018 season?
 
Odorizzi, at 4 full years in the league, has shown the consistency (apart from 2017, which may or may not be an anomaly) of a number 3 or 4 starter, depending on the rotation he's placed in.
 
Baseball Reference has similar pitchers as Danny Salazar and Jeremy Hellickson - and if he pitches like pre-2017 Odorizzi is a fair comparision, though I would argue he would be a perfect bridge between those two pitchers. He won't miss as many bats as Salazar and will miss more bats than Hellickson, when on.
 
Salazar, when healthy (and maybe not pitching in the same rotation as Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco), is likely a number 2/3 (his peripherals are great, with 12.8 K/9 and a FIP of 3.48 - but he walks too many hitters) and Hellickson is likely a number 5 (if you wanted to look at worst case scenario of progression for Odorizzi, I would look at the staggering decline of Hellickson post-2016.)
 
Conclusion
 
So, no. I don't believe Odorizzi is the Twins best pitcher. Jose Berrios will likely hold that mantle this season, barring a trade for an established ace or a surprise signing of Jake Arrieta. Even Santana, if healthy and capable or repeating (or coming close to repeating) his 2017 season would provide superior results.
 
That said, the Odorizzi trade gave the Twins something they need - an arm capable of holding down a middle of the rotation spot, keep them in games and get some K's when needed. He slots nicely in between Berrios, Santana when he returns, with Gibson occupying the 4 spot.
 
Temper your expectations, Twins fans. We didn't sneak one by the Rays and snag a front of the rotation starter, but we did get a young, controllable, arbitration eligible middle of the rotation-type arm - for essentially a High A projected utility infielder. That's pretty impressive.
 
 
 
Twitter: @four_six_three

With the Twins off-season moves seemingly drawing to a close, fans would be hard pressed not to be enthused by the clubs’ upgrades. At the beginning of the 2017 season, fans were frustrated with a lifeless offseason which involved adding Jason Castro, Matt Belisle, and newly reinvented Craig Breslow. Most cautioned that ‘Falvine’ (there’s my garage band name of the future) were assessing the organization and its infrastructure before making hasty free agent additions. This off-season, the front office has been aggressive, acquiring Jacob Pearson and David Banuelos from the Angels and Mariners for international slot money, adding Michael Pineda, Zach Duke, Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, Annibal Sanchez, and trading for Jake Odorizzi.
 
Falvey and Lavine deserve credit for creatively adding to the Twins 2018 chances whilst maintaining strong organizational depth for 2019 and beyond. I would argue that the Twins punched a little above off-season expectations in their bullpen additions (with the addition of Reed) and a little below their expectations for the rotation given the earnestness of their interest in Yu Darvish. While the Twins have improved their starting five, the lack of a higher quality add like Darvish or Archer (although unsurprising) heightens the pressure on Kyle Gibson to build on his string second half performance in 2017. So who is the real Kyle Gibson? What can Twins fans expect in 2018?
 
One question I pondered before I dug into Gibson’s numbers; Did/do Twins fans have unreasonable expectations for Gibson? There has always been a contention that Gibson has not lived up to the hype. The Twins first round selection (22nd overall) in 2009, Gibson ascended to fairly lofty prospect status, reaching a peak of #34 overall (Baseball America). The Twins have struggled to draft and develop front line starting pitching for a significant period of time, making the pressure on Gibson to be ‘the answer’ immense when he made his big league debut in 2013. It should also be noted that in spite of Gibson falling a little in the draft due to his injury history, the Twins have had other late first round pick pitchers who couldn’t establish themselves in the majors at all (such as Alex Wimmers).
 
With Ervin Santana out and until May and rotation with a top end of 2/3 types (Berrios and Odorizzi), the Twins need Gibson to be at least solid. So who is Kyle Gibson? Is he the 2015 version who threw almost 200 innings and had an xFIP of 3.95? Is the second half of 2017 version who had a K/9 of almost 9.0 and help opposing hitters to a .379 SLG? Or is he the pitcher who struggled significantly throughout the first half of last season, to the tune of a .389 OBP against whilst surrendering 16 HR in 80 innings?
 
Matthew Trueblood wrote an excellent article for Baseball Prospectus when Gibson was picking up steam in the second half of 2017. He isolated four primary factors in Gibson’s breakthrough; a lower release point, moving to the middle of the rubber to combat control problems, using his legs more effectively, and an evolving pitch mix. Gibson’s velocity improved as a result, his average fastball increasing almost 1 mph from 2016.
 
New Twins pitching coach Garvin Alston is one of the most fascinating stories not to be talked about this offseason. Minnesota owe much of their 2017 success to then new hitting coach James Rowson. Throughout the season when the Twins young hitters made breakthroughs, Rowson continued to emphasize one central tenet of his coaching; the swing belongs to the hitter, they must own it and feel empowered to tweak it. When introduced to Twin Cities’ media, Alston emphasized his own central teaching:
 
‘First, one of the biggest things I teach is commanding the zone with the fastball’.
 
Consider then, Gibson’s fastball command from the first half of 2017 to the second half. Comparing Gibson’s fastball location from the first half of his season to the second, he clusters his strike throwing with greater consistency in the portion of the zone up and away from RHH. Additionally, he more intentionally uses the opposite corner of the zone, down and in from RHH or down and away for LHH.
 




 
Between April and the end of July 2017, Gibson gave up a .300 BAA with his fastball, a SLG of .640, and .340 ISO. Over the same period of time, he gave up .342 BAA on his sinker. After tweaking his pitch mix, Gibson’s results improved dramatically. Throughout the rest of the season, his gave up a .529 SLG, and .193 ISO on his fastball. It was still being hit, but much less hard. Similarly, he gave up a .267 BAA on his sinker. This makes a ton of sense. Gibson has always been a sinker ball pitcher, known for keeping the ball down in the zone. It doesn’t take a ton of research for good hitter to be able to pick up on his location tendencies when his mix was so predictable. By using more of the zone and varying his fastball and sinkerball usage, Gibson induced more groundballs, increased his strikeout rate, and most important for a pitcher without a real plus pitch, reduced hard contact.
 
Gibson’s fastball command and usage had a significant impact on hitters. Opposing hitters O-Swing % (the amount opposing hitters swing at a pitch outside the strike zone) increased from 18% to over 25%. Additionally, Gibson was able to generate more swings inside the zone with his fastball increasing that number 18% to 61%, a career high. In other words, if your stuff isn’t outstanding, you better to be able to keep hitters off balance by moving it around in the zone, or command the strike zone, as Alston would call it. It will be fascinating to see if Alston can further leverage this improvement Gibson made in the second half of 2017 for a successful 2018.
 
Gibson is likely going to continue to make adjustments to stay ahead of the curve in keeping hitters off-balance. Ultimately, the construction of the Twins’ off-season speaks to Falvine’s understanding of that they have on their roster, and what they don’t have. The Twins now have several intriguing back end bullpen options between Trevor Hildenberger, Zach Duke, Fernando Rodney, and Addison Reed. The pen is much more likely to be able to bail out a bad start than in 2017. If Gibson can continue to tweak his approach and forms and effective partnership with Alston, the Twins may find themselves with a fourth starting pitcher who gives them more consistent innings and can pitch deeper into games. How do you think Kyle Gibson will perform for the Twins in 2018? Do you think he will establish himself as a consistent middle of the rotation starter? Or will he continue to have varied and inconsistent results?

State of the Twins - Starting Rotation


 
 
Baseball is back. Pitchers and catchers have reported to the Twins Spring Training site in Fort Myers, along with a sprinkling of position players - including Joe Mauer, who we can only suspect is in "the best shape of his life" at this point in his career. All jokes aside, the 2018 season is just around the corner and it doesn't come without some question marks, most notably, the state of the starting rotation.
 
If you're a regular to Twins Daily, or follow the Twins social media outlets, Ervin Santana's injured finger will put him on the shelf for 10-12 weeks and has been widely reported. Santana, 2017 Twins Opening Day starter and All Star, will likely miss the entire opening month of the 2018 season while recovering from this injury. By my estimation, that would put breakout star from the 2017 season Jose Berrios in line for the Opening Day start and the defacto number one starting pitcher to start the year.
 
With few "locks" in the rotation, Santana, Berrios and Kyle Gibson likely being the only three starters guaranteed a starting spot, that leaves a quandary for the remaining two starting jobs - and in all reality, with Santana's injury, 3 starting jobs.
 
The Twins entered the post season with the goal of addressing a few areas, starting pitching and the bullpen being of primary concern. While they addressed the bullpen - Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zack Duke being added via free agency this winter, the only starting pitcher add was Michael Pineda. While I love the addition of Pineda - I believe there could be a huge potential for value there, post-Tommy John for the former Yankee/Mariner - he is not projected to be available until late summer, perhaps even September at the earliest. So, for all intents and purposes, his 2 year deal is focused on potential value in the 2019 season and perhaps the 2018 playoffs.
 
The Twins primary target in this offseason free agent market, Yu Darvish, signed a 6 year/ $126 Million dollar deal with the Chicago Cubs. Reportedly the Twins were not willing to extend an offer past 5 years, and while it hasn't been confirmed (to my knowledge) I assume the AAV offered by the Twins was comparable to what he received from the Cubs. I won't beat a dead horse, at this point Darvish is off the table, and while I personally felt the Twins should have done everything feasible to sign Darvish (including a 6th year, opt out clause, no trade/limited no trade, incentives, etc.) I, obviously, am not privy to the details of what the Twins offered. Read: Twins may have done all of that, Darvish may have just preferred Chicago over everyone else.
 
So, where does that leave us? Well, there was always an opportunity for in-house competition for the 5th starting pitching spot, we'll start there. Phil Hughes, off of his second rib surgery, will be in the mix, along with a post-Tommy John Trevor May. Among those who had a cup of coffee in the majors last year, Aaron Slegers and probably to a lesser extent Felix Jorge, and exciting young pitchers Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero and Zach Littell. Adalbuerto Mejia, who had a fairly up and down 2017, also projects to be competing for a spot - he would be the lone left hander in the rotation, with his experience in 2017 and flashes of ability, I expect him to be among the favorites.
 
The Twins have expressed interest in a few of the remaining free agent pitchers left on the market, including Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb - and also have been loosely connected to Jake Arrieta, though Lavelle E. Neil reported the chances of signing Arrieta were "remote". I would dare say by remote, he means 'snowballs chance in Hades'. I've been wrong before, though. They have also been reportedly interested in the next tier of free agent pitchers - Jaime Garcia, Jason Hammel, Jason Vargas and (I hope its a 'take a flier' kind of interest...) Chris Tillman.
 
Any of those starting pitchers would improve the depth of the starting rotation, only Arrieta would truly provide anything more than a "number 3" type pitcher. Even so, Arrieta at this point in his career, mileage on his arm and truly Phil Hughesian decrease in velocity from 2016 to 2017 (both had a decrease in FB velocity of 2 MPH) he slots better as a number 2 starter. Optimally, signing both Lynn and Cobb to free agent contracts would solidify a Twins rotation. Arrieta would likely require as much, or more, money to sign than Lynn and Cobb combined - he reportedly turned down a Cubs offer that matched or close to matching the $126 Million they gave Darvish, also he is represented by Scott Boras. Signing any of the Garcia-Hammel-Vargas tier would be a solid move for depth in the back end of the rotation, all are very capable of being serviceable 4/5's.
 
Aside from free agency, the Twins offered a formal trade package to the Tampa Bay Rays for Chris Archer. Its hard to say how serious the offer was, or what was included - much speculation had Max Kepler as a primary piece - but Archer is probably the most sought after trade target in baseball. I would suspect any offer the Twins made that didn't include Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton or Jose Berrios was probably a non-starter for the Rays - that said, including any of those names for the Twins would be... well it would be very, very stupid. Jake Odorizzi is also on the Twins radar. I, personally am not excited to part with any highly regarded prospect for Odorizzi, and certainly not for Max Kepler.
 
Potential targets for the Twins could include pitchers Colin McHugh (Astros), Marcus Stroman (Blue Jays), Julio Teheran (Braves), Sean Manaea (A's), among several others. Stroman is more or less in the same boat as Archer, it would take a very solid offer (and a crowbar) to pry him from the Blue Jays. McHugh, in all fairness this pick was inspired by conversation had by Brandon Warne and Ryan Turnquist on their 'Locked on Twins' podcast, may be the odd man out of the rotation/swing-man situation in Houston - he might be a great under the radar pickup in trade. Fangraphs projections actually have him putting up better ERA/FIP and K/9 numbers in 2018 than all current projected Twins starters. Julio Teheran is another interesting target, and I plan on elaborating more on both him and McHugh in a later article.
 
Thank you to all who made it to the end, I appreciate every reader. My intention here on Twins Daily is to upload at least one blog article a week on various topics Twins related, and if you have any suggestions, thoughts or comments please feel free to share them! I can also be found on Twitter @four_six_three if you enjoy more Twins related topics!
 
 
Twitter @four_six_three

In 1961 Minnesota joined the ranks of Major League Baseball and the National Football League. It might be hard to believe today, but before that there were no Twins and Vikings in the state history, unless you buy the story of the Rune Stone in Alexandria and those Vikings might have tossed rocks, but not footballs. There has never been another year like this in Minnesota sports history and happily I can say I was there – both as a high school sophomore at Central High School in Minneapolis and as an usher in Met Stadium!
 
I loved the Met, the big erector set in the distant community of Bloomington. This was the big leagues for both football and baseball (shortly after we added the Soccer team – the Kicks) and it was in this rural suburb that we planted the seeds for this part of our community lore. Of course, they were not called the Bloomington Twins or the Bloomington Vikings. It might have been appropriate, but then Wold Chamberlain – our massive international airport (just joking) was also located nearby and no one thought to call it the Bloomington airport.
 
 
Of course, we had a sports history before this. In 1960 the Minnesota Gophers were named the number one college football team in the country – yup, Alabama did not get that one. Playing under Murray Warmath with players like Sandy Stevens at QB (he then played in Canadian football league) we were at the top of big time college football and then we went to the big game – the Rose Bowl, where we set the precedence for the soon to arrive Minnesota Vikings - but lost the biggest game of the year to Washington 17 – 7. In the year of the Vikings and Twins the Gophers ranked 6th in the nation and corrected their previous loss by winning the Rose Bowl against UCLA 21 – 3.
 
 
There was no NHL team in the cities (that still amazes me), but that did not mean that there were no sports memories to be had. When I asked a friend, John Helland who retired from working at the state capitol about his impressions of that time he wrote, “Hey, Mike, here's what I remember: Gopher baseball was great, winning the NCAA championship in 1960 over So. Cal. Jim Rantz, longtimeTwin's farm club director, and Tom Moe, also a good football player and much later Athletic Director, were on that team. They also won four years later. Some Gopher hockey players, incl. Herb Brooks, almost made the U.S. hockey team (he was the last team cut). The Saints vs. Millers was a great hockey rivalry then, but don't remember names of good players. Jim Beattie was starting his pro boxing career as an up and coming heavyweight. This is going back almost 60 years now, so just a kid. The 1960 U.S. Olympic team featured Minnesotan’s John Mayasich, Jack McCarten, the goalie, and Warroad's Christian brothers who later developed iconic hockey sticks.”
 
 
We were excited about our sports legacy and we still had a professional team – The Minneapolis Lakers – in 1960. But Mikan retired – he was so good they changed the court – enlarging the lane so that he would not get every rebound. And we were champions – 5 times in 6 years with a roster of NBA Hall of Famers. In the 1958/59 season we drafted Elgin Baylor and the future looked bright. Sitting in the Minneapolis Armory where many games were played there were no bad seats. Unlike the Timberwolves stadium where you need binoculars in the upper deck to watch seven-foot players, at the Armory the players towered over us and it was almost like being on the court. It was great, but attendance was not – how many can you get in the Armory, so in 1960 just as we were getting excited about our new teams – the Lakers were moved – to the west coast, to Los Angeles, to a city that does not even know what a Lake is!
 
 
We would have been depressed, but the Twins were coming. There were minor league teams still playing – the Minneapolis Millers were in Nicollet Stadium, just six blocks from where I lived, until 1956 when they moved to Metropolitan Stadium (who came up with that name for a stadium in the middle of a field in Bloomington?) where they played until 1960. In St Paul, the Saints were the farm team of the Dodgers, who were about to move to the west coast. Who knew then that the Giants would be enticed to move with them. But 1960 would be the last year of this franchise until Mike Veeck and others created the new Saints in independent ball who would play at the same stadium – Midway – that the original Saints used in their final season.
 
 
In 1958, future Twins manager Gene Mauch was the skipper of the Millers – now a farm team for the Red Sox, having been associated with the Giants for years. Mauch led us to the championship and then we lost the Minor League World Series. We knew that major league baseball was coming, and Horace Stoneham of the Giants played us for country bumpkins, promising to move here and using the leverage to get to San Francisco. Our final year was pretty glorious – Carl Yastrzemski was here as was future Twin, Al Worthington.
 
 
This left an opening for a team which we had no association with – the Washington Senators, and their owner/GM – Calvin Griffith. But who cared – this team, so famous for the saying – Washington DC, first in war, last in the American League – was coming. Time to learn who they were. From Senators to Twins – what a transition. Some bonus player named Harmon Killebrew showed up and so did some Latin players like Camilo Pascual and Pedro Ramos. The Pirates were the reigning champions – they were FAMILY – we were in baseball heaven.
 
In the meantime, something else was brewing – the NFL was going to put a team in the state the same year and the same stadium. It was Viking time. And we would be playing outside like real Vikings. Norm Van Brocklin would be our coach and we would have a rookie QB named Frank Tarkington and no one expected him to do anything. As an expansion team, we were expected to be the tackling dummies for the rest of the league. The champions were from Philadelphia – a team called the Eagles, but we knew we would get even with them someday - we hope.
 
 
April 11, 1961 the Twins played the very first Major League Game in Minnesota. There were 39,615 fans – a sellout, and I was an usher. We were so new to this that we still did not know who those players were, but they were ours, so we cheered. Metropolitan stadium with its three decks had never felt the feet of so many people and when they got their coordination together, they would stomp their feet and rock, or should I say – sway, the stadium. Unaccustomed to the rules of the major leagues I remember being booed by thousands of people when I would go to make sure someone was not hurt by a foul ball. They were sure I was there to take the ball back!
 
 
We loved the fresh air, the breeze coming in from right field, the uniforms and excitement of the game, even if we had no idea who manager Cookie Lavagetto was. We had Billy Martin, a future manager at 2B, Harmon Killebrew a future HOF player at 1B, Zoilo Versalles at SS, and Bob Allison in the OF. With Pascual and Ramos was Jack Kralick and Jim Kaat in the rotation. This was so heady we hardly noticed that one of our own – Roger Maris – was hitting the baseball out of the park more than anyone in history. Actually, we knew but it was not as important as the fact that we won 70 games! Of course we also lost 90, but who cared, this was the majors and our guy – Harmon had hit 46 home runs. When the season was over the Twins had drawn 1,256,723 fans, the third highest total in MLB and we were in 7th place, not last (10).
 
Now it was Viking time! The Senators were an established team that moved, but the Vikings were an expansion team and they were not supposed to win. After opening with an exhibition in Sioux Falls, SD the team came home to a rousing welcome. Like good Minnesotans, the fans were all on time, the parking lot was full, and the ushers helped people find their seats quickly. It was an excited crowd, but everyone knew we would lose, that is, everyone but Fran Tarkington who had not read that script and came off the bench to replace the wily old vet, George Shaw, and beat the mighty bears 37 – 13 on opening day!
 
 
For a week we had a perfect record in the NFL. True, we had the Minneapolis Marines and Duluth had the Eskimos, but that ancient history hardly makes a dent in our professional football story, even if the Eskimos had Ernie Nevers, the first Superstar.
 
We got a franchise in the American Football League, but never played a game. The fact that we got awarded this new team meant the NFL (which was not merged with the upstarts) decided to put a team in Minnesota if we gave up that first AFL franchise which subsequently became the Oakland Raiders. The new owners included Ole Haugsrud who had given up the original Duluth team to the league with a provision that he would be allowed ownership in any future NFL team. It took forty years.
 
Playing outside the Viking fans became the new version of the Packers – standing in the cold, breath frozen in the air, a unique sound of clapping gloves, and a rabid excitement that would continue right up today’s softer indoor fans. The opening win shocked everyone, and the roar was similar to the playoff games of the future, but the shock wore off with 7 straight losses and a final 3 – 11 record.
 
Being in the stadium at the end of the season no one minded that we were packed in tightly, it just made us warmer. Thermos’ went from coffee to slightly stronger beverages and the sounds of the stadium faithful echoed across the frozen prairies of Bloomington. An average of 34,586 people attended the games, many of them lopsided contests. Norm Van Brocklin, the ex-quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles was the grumpy head coach because the quiet man of the north – Bud Grant – would not cancel his contract with the Blue Bombers in the Canadian Football League. Eventually we would get him.
 
I only ushered for one year, but that was enough to create a love for sports that continues today. Only baseball remains with as much passion, but that dates back to my childhood when the only vacation my parents would take was a trip to County Stadium in Milwaukee to watch the Milwaukee Braves in their championship seasons. My career would take me in many directions, including one-year writing for the short-lived Midwest Spectator, a Twin Cities sports publication, and finally into my career in the Outdoor/Environmental Education.
 
 
Like many people I was moved by the events that I witnessed when I was young and even though I attended all the 1991 world series games at home, nothing will be as lasting as that first night when the sun was setting, and the stadium lights came on, when the green of the stadium grass seemed to turn luminescent and the players uniforms sparkled in the light. There was the smell of the concessions, the sound of the bat, and the collective anticipation that something good was going to happen – something good that would continue for the next 57 years and who knows how long into the future.

Why haven’t we had a cowboy movie or series about baseball? It did occur in the old and wild west. We know that Bat Masterson and Wyatt Earp refereed boxing matches and Bat Masterson went on to NY to be a sports writer. But who talks about baseball in the old west?
 
Baseball spread throughout the Old West around the late 1840s, and in 1869, the Cincinnati Red Stockings—America’s first professional team—departed westward from St. Louis on a rail tour. In describing their game with the local Eagles the San Francisco Chronicle wrote in terms no modern sports page would use: “It is easy to see why they adopted the Red Stocking style of dress, which shows their calves in all their magnitude and rotundity. Everyone of them has a large and well turned leg and everyone of them knows how to use it. https://truewestmagazine.com/sports-in-the-wild-west/
 
In 1845 Alexander Joy Cartwright Jr. began to accumulate his reputation that would lead to a dubious place in the baseball HOF. He was among the organizers of the Knickerbocker Base Ball Club, and with some associates published a set of rules and regulations that became the foundation of modern baseball.
Cartwright, who had worked as a bank clerk, bookseller and volunteer fireman in New York City, joined the 1849 California Gold Rush and despite rumors did not spread his rules of baseball wherever he went.
 
In Minnesota Territory in 1857 (the year before statehood) Minnesota staked its claim in professional baseball. An organized ball club formed in Nininger City (now a ghost town in Dakota County).
 
During the Civil War, soldiers—mostly Yankees, though some Rebels—played baseball. “The New Orleans boys also carried base balls in their knapsacks,” Will Irwin wrote in a 1909 Collier’s Weekly article. “A few of them found themselves in a Federal prison stockade on the Mississippi. They formed a club.”
 
Union soldier George Putnam recalled that once during a baseball game in Alexandria, La., enemy troops attacked, placing the outfielders in mortal danger. The left fielder and right fielder managed to get back to the dugout, but the Rebels shot and captured the center fielder before the Yankees could repel the attack.
 
At some point in his career famed gambler/lawman Wild Bill Hickok reportedly rooted for the Kansas City Antelopes. Legend has it he even umpired one of their games while wearing a pair of six-shooters.
General George Armstrong Custer was a baseball player and fan – his brother was the better player and in the 7th Cavalry was Captain Fredrick Benteen who had played for the St Louis Cyclone club. At that time, for reasons I cannot explain, the game was considered a northerners game, but it really was universal. Not that Benteen’s family could prove it. His father said it was useless and a waste of time and when Benteen went on to a successful union career his father said, “I hope you are killed by the first bullet fired, and that the bullet will be fired by one of your Benteen cousins who will be fighting for our glorious cause!”
 
During the war the game was played both north and south (and by the way was not created by the Union officer Doubleday despite some erroneous rumors. Union Private Alpheris Parker of the 10th Massachusetts wrote “the parade ground has become a busy place with the officers and men playing the baseball game with such ardor that it borders on mania.” Confederate Private Maynard Dial of Virginia wrote “we were playing the bat ball game with such intensity that we didn’t notice the musket fire. All of sudden, the Federals rushed us and we had to jump for our weapons. In so doing we lost the only baseball in camp.”
 
This mania for baseball followed General Custer and his brother Tom Custer who was considered one of the best pitchers in the Union Army.
 
We also know that in 1874 Custer had a baseball team play in SD when he broke the treaty with the Lakota over the Black Hills and came in to the area now known as Custer SD. While in Dakota Territory between 1873 and 1876, the club played other military squads as well as civilian teams. On July 31, 1874, during Lt. Col. George Custer’s Black Hills Expedition, the Fort Lincoln Actives defeated the Fort Rice Athletes, 11–6, at the site of what is now Custer, S.D. “The enlisted men,” according to historian Brian Dippie, “whiled away the long summer day playing a game of baseball—a genuine Black Hills ‘first,’ including a dispute over the umpire’s impartiality.”
A fascinating convergence of dates is 1876 where the baseball players of the seventh infantry died at the Little Bighorn in the same year that the National Baseball League was formed. In February of 1876, eight teams left over from the National Association of Professional Baseball Players banded together to form the new league and professional baseball was on its way.
 
To prove the baseball connection, we know that Company H Sargent Joseph McCurry was the Benteen Club’s pitcher and considered the 7th’s best player and was critically wounded and would never play ball again., Private William “Fatty” Williams had signed a contract to play with Pittsburgh at the end of his hitch. http://weeklyview.net/2013/04/18/baseball-and-the-little-bighorn/
 
Early pro ball could be found in the west in 1884 when the Kansas City Cowboys played in the Union Association. In 1886 a team using the same nickname played a one-year trial in the National League, finishing with just 30 wins and 91 losses (36 of the latter by a single pitcher, Stump Wiedman).
 
The league dumped the Cowboys in favor of the Pittsburgh Alleghenys (today’s Pirates) the next season.
“Most baseball played out West in the 19th century remained amateur or semipro, including the barnstorming games of the Nebraska Indians. Founder and promoter Guy W. Green recruited several of his players from the Omaha and Winnebago reservations; nine of the 12 players on his first club in 1897 were Indians. On June 25 of that year the squad traveled to Lincoln and trounced the University of Nebraska team, 18–12, before an enthusiastic crowd. Through 1914 (Green left in 1907) the Nebraska Indians played across the country, often calling to mind the atmosphere of a Wild West show. The team was good, too, reportedly posting a record of 1,237 wins, 336 losses and 11 ties.” http://www.historynet.com/baseball-in-the-west-2.htm
 
“In the coal-mining town of Krebs, Indian Territory, on July 4, 1882, players used sacks of hay and cans for bases as 300 people watched the home team defeat nearby Savanna, 35–4. In 1889 future Hall of Fame pitcher Joe “Iron Man” McGinnity starred for Krebs and helped spread interest in the game to places like Tahlequah, Muskogee, Eufaula, Checotah, Vinita and Wagoner. The land rush that prompted the formation of Oklahoma Territory in 1890 (Indian Territory remained the eastern part of what in 1907 would become the state of Oklahoma) also scattered baseball diamonds in new places, including Guthrie, Stillwater, Kingfisher and Oklahoma City. Clothing merchant Seymour C. Heyman started Oklahoma City’s first professional baseball club in 1902, but it was another two years before the Mets, part of the Southwest League, became the first team there to play a full season of organized baseball. Subsequent minor league teams in Oklahoma’s capital city have included the Indians, Senators, Boosters, 89ers and RedHawks.”
 
In Minnesota we continued our baseball tradition with the North Star Club of St. Paul with another team across the river in Minneapolis. One of the most interesting notes from this era was captered in Homer Croy’s 1949 book Jesse James Was My Neighbor, which told how the Cole-Younger gang “went out to see a baseball game between the St. Paul Red Caps and the Winona Clippers. September 7, the gang made the very unwise choice of robbing the bank in Northfield, Minn., that landed the three Younger brothers—Cole, Bob and Jim—in Stillwater Penitentiary.
 
“In 1875 the all-white Winona Clippers fielded a black pitcher/second baseman named W.W. Fisher. And in 1883 John “Bud” Fowler, a black player who hailed from Cooperstown, N.Y., saw action at various positions for the Northwestern League team in Stillwater (presumably not within sight of the imprisoned Younger brothers’ cells). Minnesota claimed its first major league team in 1884, when St. Paul played nine games in the Union Association (a league that lasted just one season). But the state didn’t host another team in the majors until 1961, when the Washington Senators moved to Minneapolis and became the Minnesota Twins.”
 
Around Tombstone in 1882, , a civil engineer from Massachusetts named George S. Rice had baseball on his mind. While Wyatt Earp chased the “cowboys” Rice started a “team called the San Pedro Boys at his Boston and Arizona Mill, following that up with the Tombstone Base Ball Association squad. After much practice, his “tossers” opened their season on May 12 with a loss to a Tucson club.”
 
Chick Gandil and Buck Weaver of the 1919 black sox played for Douglas, AZ in 1925.
 
By the 1870s soldiers were playing ball at Wyoming Territory forts, and towns like Laramie and Cheyenne had organized teams. The latter sported such names as the Black Stockings, Nonpareils, Benedicts, Eclipse, Bachelors and Indians.
 
There are more teams and more stories, but the fact is – baseball was part of the old wild west.

As we near the two week mark before pitchers and catchers report in Fort Myers, we're starting to see signs that this painfully frigid free agent market may be finally thawing. The Brewers staked their claim on a crowded NL Central with two big outfield acquisitions last week, and rumors abound that Yu Darvish is closing in on a decision that might open the free agent starter floodgates.
 
While we wait to hear whether Darvish picks the Twins or sends the front office scrambling for Plan B, let's take a look at how the top four free agent starters – Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb – stack up against the existing Twins rotation candidates by the numbers. Today we'll start with rate stats, and I'll follow up with a "Part II" that takes a deeper look at the major WAR and projection models.
 

 


 
I imagine every Twins Daily reader is familiar with the drawbacks of both ERA and FIP. ERA holds the pitcher completely responsible for every ball in play, ignoring defense, ballpark factors and dumb luck. FIP clears the pitcher of any responsibility on balls in play that don't leave the ballpark, ignoring quality of contact on those balls in play.
 
Enter this author's new favorite pitching stat: Statcast's new xwOBA metric. You can find a detailed description at the previous link, but you could say that xwOBA takes FIP to the next level: maintaining the pitcher's responsibility for strikeouts and walks while also giving pitchers due credit (or penalty) for their quality of contact beyond just home runs.
 
Ervin Santana is a great case study here. Erv's 2017 ERA was stellar, but his FIP suggests that it was helped out quite a bit by some combination of defense, ballpark factors and luck. xwOBA helps us cut through the noise here by showing that Santana's overall production (.292 vs. .320 lg avg) was more in line with his ERA (3.28 vs 4.49) than his FIP (roughly lg avg).
 
Yu Darvish's numbers, especially in the second half, tell a similar story. xwOBA suggests that he was far and away the best of the available free agent starters in spite of his inflated ERA, and that his second half was terrific despite some of the traditional results suggesting he faded. Perhaps this, and his strong early starts in the playoffs, suggest that his World Series collapse was in fact the result of pitch tipping rather than an overall fade in production.
 
Arrieta's second half may be even more interesting. His ERA drops substantially in the second half, and while his FIP suggests that it may have been more luck than production, his xwOBA reinforces that he was indeed generating significantly better quality of contact to go with his continued strong strikeout and control rates.
 
With Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb we can say with some certainty that either would have slotted well ahead of any Twins pitchers not named Santana or Berrios in 2017, but let's take a closer look at the numbers. Nick recently applauded Lynn on Twitter for his consistency and the numbers back him up here, particularly looking at xwOBA which suggests that an inflated 2017 FIP may not be that concerning. With Cobb, many have pointed to his hot second half as a positive, but his FIP remained essentially the same and his xwOBA actually regressed in the second half, suggesting his second half surge may have had a fair amount of luck attached to it.
 
What else jumps out at you in these numbers? Mejia's second half? May's strong 2015 xwOBA as a starter?

There is no question that Brian Dozier has been the best player on the Minnesota Twins for the past four seasons. Over that stretch, Dozier’s 18.8 fWAR ranks 18th in Major League Baseball, and is 2nd among second basemen. His early success lead the Twins front office to give him a 4-year, $20MM deal to buy out his arbitration eligible years. This has proved to be an extremely team friendly deal, but now that the Twins are a team that is finally back in playoff contention, they just might be in danger of losing their best player.
 
Dozier has expressed interest in returning to the Twins after 2018, but it doesn’t appear that the Twins have approached him yet this offseason about a potential extension. So, the question to ask is, should they?
 
Probably the most important factor in this decision will be cost. How much money will they need to spend, and how many years will they need to offer in order to entice Dozier away from entering free agency next offseason. Dozier has drastically increased his market value after back-to-back career years. This means that the Twins won’t be able to sign him for pennies on the dollar this time around. When trying to estimate the contract that Dozier’s agent will be asking for, the best place to start is by looking at contracts that other elite level second basemen have gotten in recent years. The three players that make the most sense to look at are Robinson Cano, Daniel Murphy and Ben Zobrist. Here are the details of their contracts.
 
 


 
For a little comparison, Brian Dozier will be entering his age 31 season this year, and had a 5.0 fWAR last season, and a 14.2 fWAR over the previous three. Given these factors, and adding in a couple years of baseball inflation, we can assume that Dozier will get a contract somewhere in between the Cano and Zobrist contracts. In terms of years, I would expect that the it will be a lot closer to the four years Zobrist got, than the ten years Cano received. It would most likely be a deal that would extend either four or five seasons past Dozier’s current contract. Even though it has been four years since Robinson Cano signed his deal, I do not see Dozier receiving an offer that approaches Cano’s in terms of Average Annual Value, as Cano was an MVP level player for five seasons before signing his contract with the Mariners. Given this, I am predicting that Dozier will sign for somewhere in the $19M-$21M per year range.
 
Now that we have a ballpark idea of what it might take to sign Brian Dozier to an extension, we now must figure out if it would make sense for the Twins to sign him to that extension. As with most big decisions, it is often works well to look at the pros and cons of the decision, so that is what we will do.
 

Pros


 
The first pro to extending Dozier, is it will secure the Twins organizational depth in the middle infield. The reason that this is important is two-fold. While players like Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Wander Javier and even Jorge Polanco all have a lot of potential, they still have big question marks attached to them. For a team like the Twins, who is ready to compete now, having a player like Dozier, who has a much higher floor over the next few seasons will be very important. The other reason why Dozier securing depth in the middle infield is important is, it gives the front office more flexibility with their personal decisions. With second base taken care of for the foreseeable future, they can be more aggressive with their prospects in the trade market for a big time starting pitcher, like Chris Archer. Also, with the future of third base in doubt after 2018, the Twins could also use their depth in the middle infield to fill this hole, potentially with Dozier sliding over to third himself.
 
Another benefit of keeping Dozier around is his leadership presence in the clubhouse. With an inexperienced team like the Twins, having veteran leader for the young players is paramount.
 
The final benefit of extending Dozier now is the Twins will have exclusive negotiating rights with him. If the Twins want to bring Dozier back, their best bet might be by not exposing him to the other 29 teams in free agency.
 

Cons


 
Without question, the biggest con in extending Dozier would be the financial commitment the Twins would have to make to him. If the Twins were to sign him, the total value of the contract would be roughly in the $100MM range. If the Twins were to make that investment it would take away from their ability to go out and sign a top tier starting pitcher that is of desperate need. Another potential problem with locking up that much money in one player is, if they suffer an injury, or their game were to suddenly go away, the Twins would be stuck with a lot of dead money on their books. With Dozier now on the wrong side of 30, both of those are possibilities, despite his track record of health and consistent performance.
 
A final motive to consider is baring an awful 2018 for Dozier, the Twins will make him a qualifying offer at the end of the season. So even if he does sign with a different organization, the Twins will receive a draft pick between Rounds 1 and 2 in the 2019 Draft as compensation.
 
With all things considered, it is a bit surprising that the Twins haven’t at least approached Dozier or his agent about an extension this winter. Even if they are leaning towards not bringing him back, it would still be worth getting the conversation started to see what Dozier wants.
 
I am interested to see what everyone has to say on this. Do you think that the Twins should offer Brian Dozier a contract extension, or should they let him play just play out this season and see where the chips fall in free agency?

This Twins have had a bit of a tortured history with analytics. In 2010 Rob Antony did an interview with TwinsDaily’s own Parker Hageman and revealed some interesting facts about the Twins and Sabermetrics. Antony stated this about their analytics department, “we're probably one of the last, if not the last, team to address it with a person dedicated solely to that.”. He went on further to fail to understand some fairly basic concepts about Sabermetrics. He thought FIP was “first strike in inning pitched” and was unable to guess about BABIP. He then revealed they had just hired their analytics guy and stated he would be “Gathering information and creating databases. This will be his first year. The guy that we brought in will start creating systems to build a foundation of our own that we can look at.” This is what I primarily want to get into as I have a background in IT.
 
In corporate America one of the techniques we use to understand what our competition is doing is to analyze their job postings. Have they posted an unusually large amount of Sales positions? Are they looking at specific geographic locations that have a concentration of talent? Are they asking for specific or unusual technical skills? These are all things we can look at to try to get an idea of intent and structure. I applied this technique to the Twins and their development job postings and found some interesting things.
 
2014 Posting
 
2015 Posting
 
One of the common details in both job postings is the fact that the Twins were looking for a developer who had experience doing front-end work (HTML, JavaScript), middle tier (.NET Framework, ASP.MVC), and the data layer (SQL Server). This implies a couple of things. The first is that the Twins are employing a standard three-tier architecture for their analytics.


It also implies that they only have “full stack” developers, which means they are required to know and to be able to develop in all 3 of their architecture tiers. This is problematic because is you are required to be able to code in everything that usually means you are unable to specialize or gain really in-depth knowledge on any single tier. For the Twins to take the next step in analytics I think they need to be hiring specialists in each of these areas.
 
Another thing I noticed is that the only data store they referred to is SQL Server. The reason that this is important is that the industry still values relational datamarts like SQL Server but they are also moving in the direction of unstructured Big Data repositories as well. Applications like Hadoop, HBASE, MongoDB, and many others allow unstructured data to be quickly stored and analyzed which allows for more experimentation by analysts when compared to a structured DB. I think the PITCH f/x and Trackman data has likely been analyzed enough but I think the next frontier is going into some less structured data. Putting medical records into a big data store and analyzing test results and notes to find patterns in identifying healthier players. Putting free text scouting reports into it and running natural language analytics on them using IBM Watson or some other AI service to identify key language or sentiments that indicate a player that is more likely to succeed. The addition of weather data and the analysis of its impact on specific players. I think there is a lot of room to grow here.
 
In short, I think it is likely this lack of specialization and not embracing the newer Big Data technologies led Thad Levine and Derek Falvey to go in a new direction this last fall with the analytics department. I wouldn’t be surprised if the hiring surge described in a recent article by Pat Reusse did not include hires to address these concerns. I am interested in your thoughts and feedback.

2017 was the season Twins fans have been waiting for. Although 2015 did offer a bit of a respite from several dreary seasons, it didn't feel as sustainable as last year's performance did. There are many reasons to think that the Twins may be on the road to a prolonged run at the playoffs. Our regular lineup has an excellent mix of productive veterans as well as young players establishing themselves, ranking right up there with the productive teams of the early 2000's. With this year's free agent signings, the bullpen has significant depth. This should allow them to bring up youngsters when they are ready rather than forcing them in due to need as we saw at times last year. The rotation has the potential to be solid, with the caveat that the Twins sign or trade for someone at least of the Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn ilk. There is great reason for hope in Twins Territory.
 
With that in mind, I want to take a stab at something I attempted prior to the 2013 season. 2012 saw the Twins finish 66-96 and there was going to be plenty of opportunity for players to come up from the minors in 2013. I made an attempt to predict which players were most likely to come up the the big leagues that season. It was my spin on a Top 10 Prospect list, but focused on who could most help in 2013.
 
http://twinsdaily.com/blog/324/entry-2284-prospects-for-2013/
 
Jump ahead to 2018 and this becomes a much more challenging task. The 2018 Twins have significantly fewer holes that the 2013 squad. It was a challenge to come up with ten players who have a chance to debut and rank them according to their potential to help this year's team. All players on this list would be making their big league debut.
 
#10) DJ Baxendale - RP - Not a sexy pick to contribute to a deep bullpen, but posted sub-3.00 ERA seasons the past two years. I could see the Twins bringing him up as a long reliever during a stretch where the bullpen is overworked. The Twins used 21 pitchers as only relievers last year.
 
#9) Mason Melotakis - RP - Could this be the year he finally breaks through? Melotakis will be 27 this year and while he continues to have relatively high K rates he needs to step up soon or he will be passed up. He is already well down the list of LH options.
 
#8) Zack Littell - SP - Littell makes the list only because the Twins used 15 different starters last year. If it happens again, Littell likely makes his debut. He doesn't have the ceiling that some other prospects in the organization may have, but he has shown continued improvement as he's worked his way through the minors. In 2017 he went 19-1, stuck out 142 in 157 IP and had a 2.12 ERA. He only reached AA for the second half on the season, so a debut would most likely occur after the All-Star Break.
 
#7) LaMonte Wade - OF - Wade is the first non-pitcher on the list, mainly because of the youth and strength of the Twins lineup. I just don't anticipate much opportunity for players to move up this year. If the Twins were to need an OF, Wade would likely be the first option among players who would be making their MLB debut. I could see it happening in the second half of the season. Wade appears to be a similar player to Zach Granite, albeit with more upside.
 
6) Tyler Kinley - RP - This comes with the assumption that the Twins either decide to keep him on the 25 man roster (doubtful) or are able to work out a trade to keep him. He assumes the position Josh Bard may have had if still with the Twins. I still don't quite get exposing Bard when it is believed Kinley has similar velocity but with less command.
 
5) Tyler Jay - RP - Jay would most likely be higher on this list, but health has limited his progression through the system. Jay is the first person on this list that I think is likely to get a callup this year.
 
4) Jake Reed - RP - Reed is my highest rated reliever on the list. He posted a 2.13 ERA in 37 IP between AA and AAA last year. Given the current makeup of the bullpen, I think he would be next in line after Busenitz, Curtis and Chargois (all have already debuted) to get a promotion to the Twins in 2018. Given Chargois' health history, he may only be behind Busenitz and Curtis.
 
3) Nick Gordon - Infield - Gordon is the only other non-pitcher on the list and would likely fill any needs for an infielder at Target Field. The only other option I could see making a debut this season is Levi Michael and I think we all know what the chances of that are. Gordon has not lit the world on fire thus far in the minors, nor has he been terrible. He just continues to climb up the ranks, spending his entire age-21 season at AA posting a .749 OPS.
 
2) Fernando Romero - SP - Romero has possibly the highest upside of starters in AA and AAA in the organization. He went 11-9 with a 3.53 ERA and 120 K in 125 IP this past year at Chattanooga. Health seems to be the only thing holding him back. He could use some seasoning a AAA before his debut sometime this season.
 
1) Stephen Gonsalves - SP - Gonsalves has the most experience of all the prospect starting pitchers and arguably the best production. He has a career ERA of 2.39 and has maintained high K rates throughout the his ascent through the minors. He got a taste of AAA this past season and will likely start there in 2018. He could be the first option for a callup, but might have to wait in line behind Trevor May, Aaron Slegers or Felix Jorge before debuting sometime after June 1. He is also the most likely player on this list to open the season with the Twins if they don't sign another starting pitcher.

The Twins made an unexpected addition to their burgeoning bullpen over the weekend, adding former Mets and Red Sox reliever Addison Reed on a two-year pact worth $16.75 million. The deal profiles well for the Twins on a number of fronts. At 29, Reed is at the younger end of a relief pitching market deep in high quality back end bullpen arms. Reed represents the first multi-year deal the Twins have ever signed with an outside reliever in free agency. In spite of this, the Twins locked Reed up on a short contract, at a price which they undoubtedly would have had to surpass had they signed him earlier in free agency.
 
Reed joins a Twins bullpen shaping up to be vastly different, and potentially much improved over its 2017 iteration. In addition to returning standout Trevor Hildenberger, the Twins have added Fernando Rodney, presumably filling the vacant ninth inning role, and Zach Duke, returning from an injury-plagued 2017 season. In the former trio, the Twins seemed to have established a penchant for the traits they are pursuing in improving their bullpen; inducing ground balls and a lot of strikeouts, hardly a pioneering recipe for success. In Reed however, they have added a pitcher who generates more fly balls, so what about Reed has made him such a consistent a reliable late inning reliever?
 
There’s no real intricacy in Reed’s pitch mix. He throws a four seem fastball around 66% of the time, a slider 33% of the time, and a changeup about as often as Byron Buxton gets caught stealing a base. Reed has excellent control, posting a walk rate of 1.51 BB/9 in 2016 and 1.78 BB/9 in 2017. Reed’s 2017 BB/9 was good for 11th among relievers who pitched at least 50 innings. This level of control was not always a staple of Reed’s pitching. In his first 3 seasons in MLB his BB/9 oscillated between 2.90 and 3.05. While this may seem like a trivial difference, this is a difference of around 10-11 walks over a 75 inning sample, a big deal when you’re constantly pitching in high leverage situations. So what is at the root of Reed’s improved control since the beginning of the 2016 season?
 
In 2016, Reed produced a dramatic improvement in his overall numbers. In addition to refining his control, Reed stranded around 5% more baserunners, increased his K/9 from 8.2 to 10.55 and dropped his xFIP from 4.04 to 2.09. Reed has never had elite velocity. While some have commented on a dip in velocity throughout the past two seasons, his average four seam fastball velocity has remained fairly consistent, dropping from 93.66 mph in April of 2015 to 92.72 mph in October of 2017. So if Reed isn’t blowing hitters away, how did his K/9 improve and stick above 9.0 in his last two seasons?
 
The number that jumps out in Reed’s improvement from 2015 to 2016 is his F-Strike% (percentage of the time Reed is throwing a first pitch strike). In 2015 Reed’s F-Strike% was around 56%. In 2016, it jumped to 70%. For the sake of comparison, old friend Pat Neshek had an F-Strike% of 71.1% in 2017 and had an incredible BB/9 of 0.87. This is a dramatic improvement from Reed which is even more impressive when visualized.
 
Here’s a look at Reed’s heat map from 2015. This charts the percentage a pitch falls within a sub-location of the strike zone. For all three of these searches I looked at heat maps representing the first pitch of a plate appearance, exclusively when Reed threw his four seem fastball. You’ll immediately notice a stark contrast between 2015 and 2016. Reed improved in two notable areas, pounding the strike zone with a greater level of consistency, and using a greater portion of the strike zone when throwing first pitch strikes. We see a similar performance in 2017 (although not quite as impressive). Interestingly, Reed’s obvious trend in locating his first pitch strikes higher in the zone in resulted in opposing batters OPS increasing from .587 in 2016, to .862 in 2017.
 






 
So where does Reed fit in the back end of a Twins bullpen which has been dramatically upgraded from a year ago? Initially, there was contention that adding Reed might create a closer controversy in Minnesota. The Twins had recently added Fernando Rodney to the pen on a one year deal. It seems as if the Twins will stick with Rodney as their primary ninth inning option. Since taking on his role with the Twins, Paul Molitor has been criticized in his bullpen management for traditionalism, a tendency to use each of his relievers in a pre-determined role. Intractably funneling Rodney into save situations may allow Molitor the luxury of using both Reed and Trevor Hildenberger as more flexible relievers, whose appearances are dictated by the leverage of a given situation, rather than the inning they are pitching in. In addition to providing Molitor with another quality arm, Reed may provide the impetus for Molitor to get more creative in facilitating the evolution of the Twins bullpen, maximizing the potential of a vastly upgraded group.

Not too long ago, Tom had the great idea for the bloggers to list their breakout candidate for 2018 in his Twins Weekly article. So I spent days...nay, hours...nay, minutes(!) scouring some of my favorite baseball resources looking for the dark horse breakout candidate that nobody would ever think of. Minutes (!!), looking for the dark horse breakout candidate that would take me from a blogger-in-training to a Schefter-esque insider. Minutes (!!!), looking for the dark horse breakout candidate that would leave readers wondering if I am some crazy baseball sorcerer or just plain crazy. After awhile I thought to myself: "What are you doing?? Just listen to your gut." So here is where I fell. My breakout candidate for 2018, the 2016 and 2017 TD MiLB Pitcher of the Year, is 23-year-old LHP Stephen Gonsalves. So much for a "dark horse", eh?
 
Gonsalves had a terrific 2017 where his most notable improvement was his command finishing almost a full walk less per nine innings than his career average (2017: 2.54 BB/9 v. 2013-2016: 3.47). Over 46 tracked fastballs (PITCHf/x has only tracked 71 total pitches), his average velocity sits at just 89.72 mph, which means control is going to be a key factor for him to have any success. Surprisingly, and despite his lack of velocity, he finished the 2017 MiLB season with a 9.65 K/9 pitching 87.1 innings at AA and 22.2 innings at AAA and a 10.78 K/9 in 74.1 innings during the 2016 season at AA. In that same timeframe he did struggle with his command posting a 4.48 BB/9, so we could say that 10+ K/9 was a result of being "wildly effective" a la Edwin Jackson. An improvement in command over a two-year period is another reason why I see him taking the next step this year.
 
Gonsalves batted ball data in minors suggests that he is a flyball pitcher, which isn't a huge deal as Target Field is a pitchers park and...well...you know...Buxton/Rosario/Kepler. But what impressed me even a little more is that hitters don't hit him well. At levels where he made 15+ starts his LD% are as follows: 17.2% (2015 High A), 13% (2016 High A), 18.1% (2016 AA), and 19.2% (2016 AA) which are all below the MLB average of 21%. Admittedly, I know this is a little bit of apples and oranges using a MLB average to analyze minor league numbers, but I do think it gives you a gauge of where he's at. Again, Target Field tends to treat fly ball pitchers well especially with our defense...another positive sign that this could be his year.
 
For me the make or break variable for Stephen Gonsalves will be the development of his slider and curveball. Below you will find a graphic from Brooks Baseball that uses a standardized score to rate Stephen's velocity and movement against other pitchers who fit similar criteria. Unfortunately, this is a very small sample as they only tracked 71 pitches over Gonsalves' 2016 Arizona Fall League appearances. To briefly explain this chart, a negative number means he is below average and a positive number means he is above average.

You might notice that his slider and curveball weren't great in this limited sample. There is no PITCHf/x data for him other than this and no other resource (fangraphs, baseball ref, etc.) keeps very great MiLB SABR stats. In a recent interview with Seth Stohs, Stephen said that he was able to work on his slider so much in 2017 that "it is almost as good as his change up". If this is true and if he can carry this into 2018, then Stephen already has three solid pitches in his arsenal. In that same interview, he said that he has been working with former big leaguer David Wells this season who was known for his curveball:

 

If Wells can help him develop his curveball into a reliable 4th pitch, then I think Stephen will be primed to make the next jump. As I said before, I think his slider and curveball are his biggest question marks coming into the season and will ultimately define if he spends most if his time in Minneapolis or Rochester this year.
 
So what does all this mean for 2018? I think Gonsalves is part of the Spring Training battle for a back end rotation spot but ultimately starts the year at AAA. He will perform well at AAA to the point where he will be the guy called on to fill in during DL stints or for a spot start here and there. Eventually, he makes his way to the MLB roster and doesn't look back. I think he provides a boost to the back end of the rotation that may not be RoY/Cy Young worthy, but that consistently gives you a chance to compete every 5th day.
 
What do you guys think? Who are some other breakout candidates? Anyone have a breakout candidate from a lower level in the Twins organization who may rise quickly in 2018?

It is no secret that this offseason has been particularly slow. Judd Zulgad and Phil Mackey had a conversation about it this week on their radio show because the lack of news was taking the excitement out of the offseason. ESPN has set up a free agency tracker and only 2 of the top 10 free agents have signed and only 7 of the top 20 overall. The 4 top pitchers in this market are unsigned as well (Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn). This glut of unsigned talent this late in the offseason leaves teams with unique opportunities.
 
http://22927-presscdn.pagely.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Yu-Darvish-3-640x355.jpeg
 
I think the Twins can take advantage of how the market has played out to do something innovative with Yu Darvish. Here are some baseline items I believe are contributing to his unsigned status:
The Yankees and the Dodgers are staying out of the market due to a desire to reset the luxury tax threshold and by doing so they are creating a void that has yet to be filled.
Darvish has likely not received any 5 or 6 year offers at this point or I think he would have signed.
The world series performance by Darvish may be leaving a bad taste in the mouths of many clubs.

Here are some baseline items in regards to the Twins:
The Twins have a large bubble payment of $50-68 million coming in Q1 2018 from the MLB sale of BAMTech (Correct Source)
The Twins need pitching help in the starting rotation, preferably someone with top of the rotation potential.
The Twins are adverse to long-term free agent contracts which I am putting at anything over 4 years.

My idea is for the Twins to offer Darvish a massively over market contract for 1 year. Here are the details:
1 year/$40 million
Vesting team option for a second year at $15 million if Darvish does not pitch at least 100 innings.
Majority of the $40 million is in the form of a signing bonus so as to allow a tax favorable payment to Darvish with his current residency being in Texas, a state with no income tax.

This deal is advantageous to both parties given the current climate. Darvish gets a number of positive outcomes:
Extremely high salary for 1 year.
Significant tax savings.
The ability to re-enter the market in 2019 when the Dodgers and Yankees will theoretically be back in the mix.
The chance to put the bad World Series performance out of teams minds.
Ability to play with a team with good outfield defense and that is on the rise.

The Twins get a number of things in return as well:
They get the services of a potential ace pitcher, similar to what they did in 1991 with Jack Morris.
The Twins are not on the hook for a massive 5+ year contract.
The Twins have a dedicated funding source (BAMTech money) to fund this initiative. If they don’t spend it in this fashion it is likely just going to go to the Pohlad family and won’t improve the team.
The Twins are protected in case of injury due to the team option provision.

Will the Twins try to innovate in this fashion? I am not certain. This would be the highest per year contract ever given out in MLB history. The current leader is Greinke with a per year average of $34.5 million. The Pohlad’s have not shown a willingness to be big spenders on the open market and Falvine have yet to show it as well. Darvish may also have some apprehension. He may decide that a 4 year/$100 million offer provides more security. He may blow out his arm at any point in 2018 and want the security of the long term contract, even if it is not as long term and as valuable as he might have hoped.
 
 
What are your thoughts? Do you like this 1 year approach? Who do you think says no? Please leave comments, thanks!

I have been kicking around the idea of trying to contribute to this site for a number of years. John Bonnes recently posted about the future of Twins Daily and how it might be in jeopardy if more writers and bloggers don’t step forward so that was enough of a kick in the pants to see if my ideas will translate to interesting articles or not. This blog is going to focus on the off the field happenings of the Minnesota Twins. Topics will include free agency, contracts, trades, payroll, drafting, staff decisions, tv and radio deals, medical issues, etc… My first entry will be posted immediately after this and is about an innovative approach the Twins can take on signing Yu Darvish. Hope you enjoy!

I've spent a lot of time over the last few days reading about a relatively new statistic called "quality of pitch" (QOP), which assigns a numerical value to each pitch a pitcher throws. The values can then averaged together to come up with a pitchers average quality of pitch (QOPA) or you can look at a quality of pitch set of values (QOPV) as another tool to measure the performance of a pitcher. The purpose of this post is to provide a simple overview of this data as it may be referenced in future articles.
 
Background
QOP was first publicly introduced in March 2015 by Jason Wilson and Wayne Greiner. Since then it has been written in various publications such as "Baseball America", the "Fangraphs", and by Yahoo Sports! columnist Jeff Passan among others. Meanwhile, Wilson and Greiner have presented their findings at the 2015 SABR Analytics Conference. In short, this statistic was introduced and quickly regarded as a good tool to measures a pitchers performance in a way the baseball community has not previously done before.
 
Computation
QOP is computed by integrating velocity (MPH), pitch location, and pitch movement. Pitch movement is defined as the vertical break, horizontal break, breaking distance, and/or rise. These variables are put together and assigned a number 0 - 10, where 0 is a very poor pitch and 10 is an excellent pitch. The MLB average QOP is 4.5 and median is 5.

 
Here is an example of QOP being used.

Validation
Wilson and Greiner have measured QOP against ERA, FIP, and SIERA which all produced a strong, negative correlation. That is, the better the QOP the lower the ERA/FIP/SIERA.

Furthermore, a search of the top 10 2017 QOPA leaders for pitchers who threw 1,000 or more pitches provides you with a list of some of the more effective pitchers in baseball.

 
Limitations
As with all stats, QOP has its limitations. From a mathematical perspective anytime we are averaging numbers together the data can be skewed by outliers, and QOP is no exception to this rule. To help minimize the effect of outliers Wilson and Greiner have created a guide to determine the margin of error depending on the sample size.
 
From a baseball perspective, QOP doesn't take into account of a pitcher who misses his spots. That is, if the catcher calls for a fastball high and inside but the pitcher throws it low and outside he could still get a high QOP score despite completely missing his spot. If technology exists for the location and break of each ball to be tracked, then I would like to see something developed that also accounts for the movement of the catcher's glove.
 
Author's Conclusion
Again, this post was solely meant to introduce you to this stat without diving into specifics on Twins pitchers. Personally, I look forward to using this stat and wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing it more and more in future posts by me or any other Twins Daily writer. Despite its limitations, I think it provides fans with a different, more insightful perspective than the traditional pitching stats (W/L, ERA, WHIP, etc.), especially when coupled with other SABR pitching stats.
 
I also wonder how well this stat can be used to predict future outcomes. I look at the list above and a couple names surprised me, but specifically Joe Biagini who was also a top 10 QOPA guy in 2016 under the same criteria. A quick look at his fangraphs page shows that he hasn't been great in 162.0 big league innings. Is this the sign of a good pitcher who has just had some bad luck early in his career? Or is he the poster child for how finding the average QOP can, at times, be a misleading statistic?
 
What do you guys think about this stat? Is this something you would look forward to seeing in future articles? What are your thoughts in the curious case of Joe Biagini?

It's too early for this.
 
It's too early to be looking at which of the hundreds of minor leaguers currently a part of the Minnesota Twins organization might take the field at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Cedar Rapids this summer.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LewisWatkins17-600x400.jpg
Tommy Watkins is moving up to AA Chattanooga to manage in 2018, but Royce Lewis could be back in Cedar Rapids to start the new season (Photo: SD Buhr)
 
It's definitely too early to get excited about the possibility of seeing the most promising group of prospects in Cedar Rapids since, perhaps, the class of 2013 (which included Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios and more) in the first year of the Kernels/Twins affiliation era.
 
Still, since it's been minus-10 degrees or so all day and I've had nothing else to do but watch a bunch of bowl games I generally don't care about at all, I'm going to share my excitement here anyway.
 
Even as the 2017 was winding down, I found myself taking mental inventory of which members of the playoff-bound Kernels might be starting 2018 in Cedar Rapids, as well. Then I started looking at the talent that was on the field for Elizabethton's Appalachian League champion club and projecting a few that were likely to get their first exposure to full-season minor league ball with the Kernels in 2018
 
All of that informal mental note-making left me feeling pretty optimistic that the Twins would send a pretty competitive group to Cedar Rapids this spring.
 
The Kernels have qualified for the Midwest League postseason in each of the five seasons that Cedar Rapids has been affiliated with the Twins and it was fine to feel pretty good about that streak continuing in 2018.
 
But then it happened.
 
A box arrived in the mail over this past weekend and inside was the 2018 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook.(Click here to get your copy.)
 
I should have just glanced through it to make sure my name was spelled correctly everywhere I was given a photo credit, then set it aside for a few weeks until we were at least getting closer to the date when pitchers and catchers report for spring training in Florida (which is the date I unofficially consider the baseball season to begin each year).
 
But knowing how much work the authors - Seth Stohs, Cody Christie and Tom Froemming - put into writing the Handbook and how packed with great content about every Twins minor league affiliate and literally every minor league player currently under contract to the Twins, well, just giving the book a glance through was something I couldn't limit myself to.
 
So I started reading. The authors have some great articles in there, reflecting not only their knowledge of the Twins organization, but their writing skills, as well. I probably should have just read those feature articles and, perhaps, about their selections for Twins Minor League Hitter, Starting Pitcher and Relief Pitcher of the Year Awards. (All three are Kernels alums, by the way.)
 
But that wasn't enough. Not when we're in the middle of a several-day stretch of sub-zero temperatures.
 
I give myself some credit, though. I didn't read EVERY one of the player features in their entirety. It's far too early in the year to do that.
 
No, I only read the features of those players that the authors suggested have some chance of playing ball for the Kernels in 2018.
 
I think there were about 60 of them. That may seem like a lot, given teams are limited to a 25-man roster, but it's really only a little bit more than the 50 or so that you might typically see come through any MWL roster in any given season.
 
Still, not all of them will wear Kernels uniforms this season. They mentioned 28, I think, that have played for the Kernels already that may return. That would be unusual. Some of those will start the season with a promotion to Ft. Myers, some could be injured or traded during spring training and some, unfortunately, could be released by the Twins before the season starts. That's just the harsh reality of professional baseball.
 
But many of the players who WILL be coming to Cedar Rapids, either to start the season or as replacements during the course of the summer, have some very impressive backgrounds and credentials.
 
The Kernels could feature not one, but two first-round draft choices.
 
Shortstop Royce Lewis, who was the first overall pick of the 2017 MLB amateur draft, spent most of the last month of the 2017 season with the Kernels and likely will start the 2018 season in Cedar Rapids as well. He could well be joined by the Twins' 2016 first round pick, outfielder Alex Kirilloff, who had been expected to spend time with the Kernels last year, but missed the entire 2017 season following elbow surgery.
 
Of course, both Lewis and Kirilloff got big signing bonuses as top draft picks, but they aren't likely to be the only million+ dollar bonus babies to put on Kernels uniforms in 2018.
 
While Lewis is likely to see a mid-season promotion if his play develops as we'd expect it to, the Twins have another millionaire shortstop ready to step into his shoes - and position - with the Kernels. Wander Javier got $4 million to sign as an International Free Agent in 2015.
 
A couple of teenaged pitchers could eventually find their ways to Cedar Rapids, though are perhaps less likely to start the season there. The Twins' 2017 second and third round draft picks, Blayne Enlow and Landon Leach, each got bonuses in excess of a million dollars to sign with the Twins, rather than play college ball.
 
While he didn't get it from the Twins, catcher David Banuelos also got a million dollars to sign with the Mariners as their 2017 third round pick. He was acquired by the Twins in December.
 
If Banuelos is assigned to Cedar Rapids, the Kernels could potentially have quite an impressive 1-2 punch behind the plate, since it would not be surprising to see Ben Rortvedt (who signed for $900,000 as the Twins' 2nd round pick in 2016) also return to start the season.
 
In addition to Rortvedt, seven additional likely (or at least potential) 2018 Kernels pulled down signing bonuses of between $400,000 and $900,000, Those include some pretty heralded prospects such as outfielder Akil Baddoo and infielder Jose Miranda, both of which were "Compensation B" round (between 2nd and 3rd rounds) selections by the Twins in 2016.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Rortvedt2017d-600x400.jpg
Twins 2nd round draft pick in 2016 Ben Rortvedt could well begin 2018 behind the plate for Cedar Rapids. (Photo: SD Buhr)
 
Of course, signing bonuses aren't what matter the most once these guys get on the field. No matter what you got paid, what matters is what you do between the lines when you get a chance. Still, when you're looking at young players with limited professional experience to base judgements on, bonus money and draft position are simple means of projecting the level of talent any particular roster might consist of.
 
In addition to those already listed, the 2018 Kernels roster could include, at some point:
Two 4th round picks (pitcher Charlie Barnes - 2017, and third baseman/outfielder Trey Cabbage - 2015, both of whom spent time with the Kernels in 2017) and a 5th rounder (third baseman Andrew Bechtold).
Six-figure International Free Agent signees like pitcher Jose Martinez ($340K in 2013) and catcher Robert Molina ($300K in 2013)
Nine additional players drafted by the Twins in the top 10 rounds of drafts between 2014 and 2017,

That is a lot of potential. And it doesn't even include Edwar Colina, who was the Appalachian League Pitcher of the Year last season.
 
Are you beginning to see why I'm getting excited for the season to start already? I mean, if you're Toby Gardenhire, the recently announced new manager for the Kernels, you have to feel pretty good about the talent level that you're going to have to work with in your first year as a manager in professional baseball, don't you?
 
Of course, the fun thing is that, even with all of these "prospects" on their way to Cedar Rapids, we know that there will be several guys not found on anyone's "prospect lists" that will grab hold of their opportunity to play baseball for a few dollars and show everyone they can play the game every bit as well as the guys getting all the attention... and money.
 
It happens every season and it will happen this year, too.
 
Cedar Rapids hasn't won a Midwest League title since Bengie Molina caught 45 games for the 1994 Kernels. No, that's not as long as the drought the Twins have endured since their 1991 World Series championship, but it's long enough.
 
So pardon me if I get spend a few of these cold January days daring to get excited about Kernels baseball in 2018.
 
If that's wrong, just blame Seth, Cody and Tom. That's what I usually do.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)

Eddie Rosario has always been a polarizing player for me. In his first extended stint with the Twins in 2015, he showed flashes of a really exciting all round game. He was a good base runner (4.7 runs above average), a solid defender (2.2 runs above average), and clobbered 13 home runs in his age 23 season. Rosario had excelled throughout 5 minor league destinations, and was noted for having an exceptionally quick bat and hands. There were a few major problems. Rosario struck out a lot (25% in 2015, compared to a league average 21%) and he rarely walked. Like, ever. In 2015 Rosario walked just 15 times in 474 plate appearances, good for a BB% of just 3.2%, well below the league average of 8.1%. Taken together, Rosario’s strikeouts and inability to take a walk amounted to cripplingly poor plate discipline.
 
In 2016 some of the aspects of Rosario’s game which made him exciting disappeared. His base running regressed marginally in 2016, and majorly in 2017. His defense went from good in 2015, to acceptable in 2016, to pretty bad in 2017 (-6.2 runs above average), a dip not often discussed in the Twins heralded ‘nothing falls but raindrops’ outfield, which should be renamed to reflect the fact that anyone not named Byron Buxton is actually a poor to average defensive outfielder.
 
Rosario’s regression and streaky hitting were so infuriating that it led to discussion about whether he would be the odd man out in the Twins up and coming outfield moving forwards, with Buxton spectacular, Kepler solid, and Zack Granite pushing for playing time with an impressive season at Rochester. Throughout his first two seasons, Rosario had shown little progress in his plate discipline, leading folks to voice the possibility that he had hit his ceiling. Enter James Rowson.
 
If Pat Shurmur is the MVP of the Vikings this season, Rowson deserves the same plaudits for his work with Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario in 2017. In researching Rowson, two things seem to stand out about his approach with the young core of Twins hitters; firstly, he wants players to have a high comfort level in taking ownership of their own swings, secondly, he’s keenly aware of the strengths and weaknesses of hit hitters and publicly pushes those buttons. After a game against the White Sox, Rowson named Rosario the player of the game, despite going 0-4, crediting him for helping teammates see more pitches from Jose Quintana which eventually allowed them to force him from the game.
 
Rosario’s numbers from 2017 are a testament to Rowson’s work. He increased his BB% to just under 6%, taking 23 more walks than he did in 2016. Rosario’s OBP jumped almost 30 points, despite a 26 point decrease in his BaBIP from 2016 to 2017. The main cause for this increased ability to get on base? Rosario was significantly more selective with his swings in 2017. He dropped his O-Swing % (the percentage of time he swings at pitches outside the strike zone) from 42% to 37%. This decreased his overall SwStr% around 5% and led to a significantly increased Contact% (percentage of the time a hitter makes contact when swinging at all pitches). Overall, Rosario wasn’t swinging at significantly less pitches, he’s swinging at significantly more hittable ones, leading to a spike in home runs, walks, and isolated power.
 
Entering his final pre-arbitration year in 2018 Rosario will need to keep his improved offensive output going to offset other diminishing skill sets. If Rosario can continue to build upon his improved plate discipline in 2018, he could finish the season as one of the more offensively productive outfielders in the American league.

If you're a Minnesota Twins fan, you're probably already well aware of the allegations that independent photographer Betsy Bissen went public via Twitter a couple days ago with her #MeToo experience involving Twins star Miguel Sano. I won't go into all the details but you can easily find them with a quick browser search.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/metoo-300x169.jpg
 
In a nutshell, Betsy's account is that, following an autograph session at a memorabilia store in 2015, Sano forcibly attempted to pull her into a restroom. The struggle, from which she ultimately extricated herself, lasted several terrifying minutes.
 
Over the past few weeks and months, we've seen victim after victim of male abuse of power/position come to light, most predominantly in the Hollywood, political and corporate environments. However, to my limited knowledge, this is perhaps the first allegation against a major league professional athlete, at least since the #MeToo movement came to prominence.
 
Given the historically misogynistic world of professional sports, the only surprising thing is that it took this long for experiences such as Betsy's to become public. Her allegation may or may not have been the first involving a MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL player, but I think we can be pretty certain it won't be the last.
 
MLB is beginning an investigation into the allegations regarding Sano, as is their responsibility and duty, apparently, under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement with the MLB Players Association. It is proper, I know, for those who know neither Sano nor Bissen personally, to decide they want to hold off on judgement until MLB does it's investigation thing.
 
Most of us who know Betsy at all (I consider myself her friend, though we are not what either of us, I'm sure, would consider to be close friends) are not generally feeling compelled to wait out an investigation before expressing our unequivocal support for her.
 
In fact, since she went public, she has received what would at least be considered public corroborative support from various parties who have, in the past, been at least somewhat familiar with Mr. Sano's treatment of women in manners not inconsistent with what Betsy described.
 
One person, Mike Holmdahl, recounted via Twitter that he had observed Sano making a female usher in Chattanooga uncomfortable during Sano's playing days with the Lookouts earlier in the same season that the event involving Bissen took place. That person was told by a senior usher there that they were so aware of Sano's activities with regard to female ushers that they had made an effort to avoid posting females near the home dugout. (You can find Holmdahl's full recounting as part of Brandon Warne's excellent piece at Zone Coverage.)
 
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports wrote that he had been told by, "five people, including teammates, ex-teammates and confidants, with whom he has spent time," that they characterized Sano as someone who, "saw the pursuit of women as sport," One of them called Sano "a ticking time bomb."
 
Jeff Goldklang, a member of the ownership group that currently owns the St. Paul Saints (for whom Bissen does some photography work) and previously owned the Twins' class high-A Ft. Myers Miracle related via Twitter that, "I've seen enough of both people to have absolutely no doubts in this story's veracity. I've personally seen Sano act inappropriately towards a woman- while in uniform, no less."
 
In fact, given these statements of at least partial corroboration, it does lead one to wonder what the Twins' front office knew about Sano's issues with women and when they knew it. But that's a question for another day and, if the MLB and the media do their jobs, we'll possibly get some answers some day.
 
All of this is just by way of saying that it would appear that Betsy Bissen is worthy of the support that her friends and many others are giving her.
 
But I'm not writing this to say I support her. She deserves more than that.
 
I'm writing to say, "Thank you," to Betsy for having the courage to speak out, knowing that the result would not be 100% supportive - that there would be a significant - and very vocal - segment of the population of Twins Territory who would demonize her for speaking out (conveniently hiding behind anonymous social media pseudonyms in most cases, of course}.
 
I will admit that Betsy's public allegations made me uncomfortable, just as the whole #MeToo movement has made me uncomfortable. But you know what? It's SUPPOSED to make me uncomfortable.
 
It's supposed to make me take stock of my own views and treatment of women - past, present and, in particular, future. And it has done just that.
 
I'm a 61 year old man. And while I certainly have never behaved toward any woman the way that Betsy related that Sano behaved toward her, I'm absolutely certain my words and actions toward women at various points in my life would not stand up to the spotlight that #MeToo is shining on us today.
 
I'm not naive enough to think #MeToo and people like Betsy Bissen are going to quickly and dramatically change the way we view and treat women in our society, especially, perhaps, in an era where our country has elected an openly misogynist President, sending a signal to a considerable segment of our population that it's OK to behave similarly toward our wives, girlfriends, sisters, daughters and granddaughters.
 
In fact, I doubt we'll see the kind of change that is needed take hold fully during my lifetime.
 
But, thanks to people like Betsy and others possessing similar courage, I have hope that my two grandsons (ages 2 and 4) will grow up in a world where they don't even question whether it's appropriate to treat girls and women with respect and, frankly, just common decency.
 
More importantly yet, I have hope that my not-quite-yet born granddaughter will grow up in such a world.
 
I have hope that she will grow up knowing that, if she aspires to be a sports photographer (or an actress or a political aide or a corporate executive), she shouldn't have to accept that being subject to what Betsy Bissen went through (or much worse) is considered just the price of admission into her chosen profession or avocation.
 
So, on behalf of my granddaughter and myself, let me just say it.
 
Thank you, Betsy.

Happy Holidays to everyone and welcome to my first Blog Entry here on Twins Daily. I am new to the writing/blogging scene (probably several years behind the curve) but I am not new to either baseball and the Minnesota Twins.
 
My background in baseball includes a playing career in both High School and College along with coaching in the collegiate ranks here in the Midwest. I currently expand my baseball background my reading about Owners, Sportswriters, Broadcasters, Managers and Individual Players that all contribute to the great game of baseball. I do it old school too - Hard Cover Books - none of this lightweight Kindle reading. I am also a current member of the American Baseball Coaches Association (ABCA) and will be attending this year's convention in Indianapolis, IN next week.
 
For my first entry, I kicked around the idea of a Minnesota Twins/Moneyball approach. It derives from my constant perusing around the Twins Daily comments section and seeing that fans (the majority of which) are unhappy with the current off-season direction we have gone. Coming off a playoff appearance, fans believed we were only a few pieces away from contending deep into the postseason. A strong off season and free agency were going to put us over the top. Unfortunately, the Twins haven't made a 'flashy' signing yet and lots of people have called the off season an utter disappointment.
 
I would like to try and bring people back down to realty in what the Twins are currently doing. I am not an insider to the Twins organization and can only speculate to the "Strategy".
 
I will say that I am a fan of the Duke, Pineda and Rodney signings so far. They aren't big and flashy, but they serve a purpose. Pineda - coming back from injury, once a highly touted pitching prospect that has flashed great promise is a great buy low signing. Rodney - has age against him but has proven to be a solid back of the bullpen arm and it's only on a one year deal. Duke - wasn't exactly the greatest when he came back from Tommy John surgery last season but again he is another buy low signing. With Duke, at the least, he is a stop gap till mid-season when Tyler Jay should hopefully be ready to join the Major League club.
 
These 3 signings are what Twins fans need to realize will continue to be the norm, it does not matter who the General Manager or Director of Baseball Operations is. All the wishing for us to sign Ohtani from Japan, was a pipe dream and was basically never going to happen. I've heard constant chatter about wanting the Twins to sign a big FA Power Relief Pitcher, that isn't going to happen either - plus it's not a financially sound decision to commit multiple years and big dollars to a relief pitcher...unless his name is Rivera or Hoffman. The Twins best chance to improve the Major League Club with Major League Talent is via a Trade. I was a big fan of going after Gerritt Cole, I thought we wouldn't have to give up as much in comparison to what a trade for Chris Archer would fetch. I'm still on the record for believing a trade will happen this off-season - just don't know when and for whom. I'm with the majority that believes it needs to be a Front Line Starter with multiple years of team control.
 
Fans tend to forget that the Minnesota Twins are in the bottom 3rd of Major League payrolls and we really have never deviated from that. Even if we were to commit an additional 30 million in payroll, we would still be in the bottom half of all Major League Baseball. Would that extra cash help us FINALLY beat the Yankees (in the playoffs) and their 200 Million Dollar payroll??? (Hard to say it would).
 
It is advantageous for the Twins to continue to find value in players that other teams don't see. We do not have the luxury (Time and/or Money) to throw at any and all Free Agents like the Yankees/Dodgers do. We've seen what other clubs have done, the Miami Marlins, seemingly finally putting down some money on players and then not seeing a return on their investment via wins or attendance. They preferred to then scrap the team and go back to their bare bones approach. Who is to say their approach is wrong...the Marlins have won 2 World Series since the last Twins World Series Victory.
 
In all of my rambling and banter - I believe the Twins, for 2018, have signed some bounce back players in preparation for the 2019 season. 2018 will be an additional year of development for the young core of Twins players. Cleveland will be the team to beat in the AL Central with the Wild Card being no gimme. From a Wins and Loss standpoint, I believe 2018 will be either a standstill or step backwards and most Twins fans will find that unacceptable coming off a playoff year.