Tom Froemming

Insurance runs have been tough to come by this season for the Twins but they tacked on a few this afternoon at Target Field. Boy, was it a good thing that they did. Read all about the game in today’s recap. Box Score Happ: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K Home Runs: Larnach (3) Top 3 WPA: Larnach .196, Garver .135, Cruz .108 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) The Twins jumped out to an early lead, scoring runs in the first and second innings, but that advantage was quickly erased by a Salvador Perez two-run homer in the third. J.A. Happ retired the last seven batters he faced after giving up that homer. The bats took the lead back thanks in part to a Rob Refsnyder RBI bloop single and a run-scoring passed ball. They tacked on runs in the sixth and eighth innings to extend the lead to four runs. Every bit of that wiggle room was needed. Jorge Alcala and Tyler Duffey each delivered a perfect inning before Hansel Robles gave up a run in the eighth. Taylor Rogers came on for the ninth inning to protect a three-run lead and got off to a concerning start. After Kelvin Gutierrez doubled Adalberto Mondesi hit a two-run homer to reduce the lead to one run with no outs in the ninth. Rogers induced a groundout then struckout the final two batters he faced to secure his fourth save of the season. Larnach’s Bomb Larnach’s home run was another tape-measure shot. He went deep into the Delta Sky360 Suite earlier this week and nearly did it again today. This one was “only” hit 423 feet with a 109.5 mph exit velocity. Postgame Interview Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Robles 13 20 0 0 21 54 Rogers 26 0 0 0 21 47 Duffey 0 15 0 0 13 28 Thielbar 2 16 0 0 0 18 Farrell 0 0 0 17 0 17 Minaya 0 0 15 0 0 15 Colomé 13 0 0 0 0 13 Alcala 0 0 0 0 10 10 View full article

It's OK, I understand if people are having a difficult time having a sense of humor about anything related to this team right now.

Gotta make sure to have a laugh every once in awhile, especially when things have gone as poorly as they have.

Maybe. Could be the curse of the TD readers who are grumpy no matter what happens anyway. ?

Curses and baseball go hand-in-hand. The 2021 Minnesota Twins appear to be a cursed club. So what’s to blame? After extensive research I've come up with three potential answers. It took the Boston Red Sox 86 years to break the Curse of the Bambino and the Chicago Cubs 71 years to break the Curse of the Billy Goat. Let’s hope whatever’s happening to the 2021 Minnesota Twins it doesn’t loom over the team for that long. Of course, revisionist history will apply any curses back to originating in 1991 and provide some explanation behind the 0-18 drought, but something feels different about 2021. There’s an extra serving of curses (or is that just my vocabulary?) After doing extensive research on the topic, I’ve come up with three possible origins of the curse. 1. Curse of the T___s One of the common memes that always pops back up after the Twins get swept out of the playoffs involves taking the “win” out of Twins. They’re either referred to as the T___s or the Tins accompanied by an altered logo such as this one: Well, no need to crack open any image editing software now, the Team has done the work for you. This year's promotional campaign appears to taken the “win” out of Twins. Some of the glitchy, pixel art stuff they’ve done for their promotional material has been kinda rad, but what is this even supposed to be? Go who? That certainly doesn't say Twins. It's bad enough this joke is so on point in the first place. Didn't need the team feed fuel to the fire. 2. Curse of the Fox That’s right, the Cubs had a billy goat, the Twins have a fox. Fox Sports North, that is. The rebranding from Fox to Bally Sports North has come along with a disastrous turn for the Twins. Don’t think this one carries any weight? Well, the Twins won the only game they played so far that wasn’t broadcast on BSN. On April 28, the Twins beat Cleveland 10-2 on YouTube’s MLB Game of the Week. The numbers don't lie. Maybe it’s just the Curse of Victory Sports One living on ... 3. Curse of the Evergreen Ghost This is my personal spin on an old favorite here. The Twins opened Target Field in 2010 with beautiful evergreen trees in front of the batter’s eye. They went 94-68 (.580) that season, with a particularly impressive 53-28 (.654) record at home. That winter, they relocated the trees, which hitters had complained about being a distraction. In a fall that’s feeling all too familiar at the moment, the Twins went from 94 wins to 99 losses. Three more losing seasons followed. Prior to the 2019 season, the team installed a living wall of evergreen plants and the team won its first division title since the trees were still up. So, problem solved, right? WRONG. Field's haunted. The 2019 green wall installation was enough to temporarily appease the Evergreen Ghost, but it’s not enough. It demands more. The entire outfield wall needs to be covered in these things like Wrigley Field’s ivy. Yes, we’ve moved from curses to hauntings. I don’t know what to tell you, this is just how the paranormal works. Seems fitting for this 2021 Twins team so far. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Of course Duffey threw at Mercedes intentionally. Embarrassing. Pathetic. You really feel like a guy hitting a 3-0 home run off your position player deserves retaliation? Don't get down 15-4. Don't put in a guy throwing 45 mph.

It’s still very early in the minor league season, but let’s take a look at four prospects — one at each level — who have impressed. Here is some discussion and highlights on Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, Seth Gray and Edouard Julien. The video below touches on some of these impressive early performances and includes highlights of Ober, Winder, Gray and Julien. St. Paul Saints: Bailey Ober, RHP Year Age Tm Lev ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO BF WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W 2021 25 St. Paul AAA 1.29 7.0 5 1 1 0 3 8 29 1.143 6.4 0.0 3.9 10.3 2.67 Wichita Wind Surge: Josh Winder, RHP Year Tm Lev Aff ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO BF WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W 2021 Wichita AA MIN 1.17 15.1 14 2 2 0 4 19 60 1.174 8.2 0.0 2.3 11.2 4.75 Cedar Rapids Kernels: Seth Gray, 3B Year Age Tm Lev G PA HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 2021 23 Cedar Rapids A+ 10 45 1 9 10 .250 .467 .438 .907 Fort Myers Mighty Mussels: Edouard Julien, 2B Year Age Tm Lev G PA HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 2021 22 Fort Myers A 10 39 0 11 13 .321 .513 .464 .977 *Stats via Baseball-Reference MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

They rank last in the league in CG+TS (crotch grabs plus tobacco spits). ?

What’s with this new programming from Bally Sports North? They keep showing a replay of the exact same Twins game. They get ahead, bullpen gives up runs, bats leave men on base and they eventually lose. Sheesh, get a new show already! Box Score Maeda: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K Home Runs: Polanco (3) Bottom 3 WPA: Alcala -.249, Garver -.108, Kepler -.081 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Kenta’s Concerning Command Kenta Maeda continued to struggle with his command and was visibly upset with himself during parts of his outing tonight. This start extends an alarming trend of Maeda’s whiff rate dropping while his hard-hit rate increases. Here’s a look at the numbers: Whiff% Hard-Hit% 2020 34.7 24.7 2021* 28.7 44.7 Tonight 25.0 57.1 *prior to tonight's game Maeda threw 56 of his 87 pitches for strikes (64.4%), struck out three batters and walked two. He issued multiple walks in just two of his 11 starts last season but this makes four of seven starts for 2021. The only runs Maeda gave up were on one swing of the bat, a three-run homer by Yasmani Grandal. It could have been worse. Web Gems Maeda was aided by a pair of nice run-saving plays by his outfielders. Left fielder Luis Arraez ended the second inning by nailing a runner at the plate on a beautiful throw. The very next inning, center fielder Max Kepler robbed José Abreu of a home run on a very smooth snag. Maybe that would have been off the wall. Maybe. Still, that’s a pair of fine plays by a couple guys in less familiar positions. There were some plays in the field later in the game that were, uh, less good. Feel free to discuss that one among yourselves. RISP/Relief Shortfalls Speaking of negative trends continuing, the Twins got outperformed in terms of both hitting with runners in scoring position and bullpen performance yet again. The Twins went 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position, left 10 men on and the bullpen surrendered six runs. Meanwhile, the White Sox went 5-for-11 w/RISP, only left four men on and received four shutout innings from their bullpen. To be accurate, the bullpen didn’t technically give up the lead since they took over with the score tied. Progress! Jorge Alcala was credited with the loss, however, meaning the bullpen now has a combined 1-12 record. Simmons’ Not So Sexy Swing During a pregame interview, Andrelton Simmons spoke to reporters about how a hitter’s approach may change depending upon whether they’re feeling sexy at the plate. Simmons delivered a base hit in his first at-bat and perhaps was feeling a little too sexy the next time he was up. Dylan Cease induced one of the ugliest “swings” from Simmons you’ll ever see from a batter. It’s hard to describe, just ask Dan Gladden. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here to see the bullpen usage over the past five days (link opens a Google Sheet). View full article

The 16 runners left on base was one shy of a team record. The MLB record is 20. (both of those stats for nine-inning games)

I was able to watch parts of all four games last night but did have some trouble. Things seem to work best through their app on my super old iPad mini. Desktop version through their site struggles for me. Next time try clearing your cache/cookies and if that doesn't work try an incognito tab for Chrome. That did the trick for me last night, for whatever reason.

The Twins’ 6-8 start isn’t disastrous at face value, but with each loss it feels like they invented a new (and painful) way to lose. Let’s take a look at how these Twins have performed in terms of runs scored and runs allowed compared to the usual trends.The two most common ways to look at run scoring and run prevention is by run differential and through that the Pythagorean, or expected, win-loss record. The Twins are looking pretty good by both of those measures. They have a +6 run differential, which is the ninth-best mark in baseball, and an expected record of 8-6. The Twins are losing games they should win isn’t exactly a news flash, but a problem with those stats at this point of the season is blowouts carry a ton of weight. The Twins beat the Tigers by nine runs in one game and beat the Mariners by eight runs in another. Let’s look at scoring and prevention through a bit of a different lens. When MLB teams allow fewer than five runs, they win more often than not. This means when they score five or more they’re also more than likely to win. The Minnesota Twins are not following either formula so far in 2021. All of the scoring information used in this article is from Baseball-Reference’s scoring and leads summary page. Here’s a look at the numbers from every MLB game over the previous two seasons: 2019-20 Scoring Allowing four runs or fewer: 2,616-899 (.744 winning %) Allowing five runs or more: 711-2,428 (.227 winning %) Five runs is the threshold in which winning percentage turns below .500. Here are the winning percentages over the previous two seasons by the number of runs allowed: 2019-20 Runs Allowed One: 591-44 (.931) Two: 640-171 (.789) Three: 575-283 (.670) Four: 442-401 (.524) Five: 298-508 (.370) Six: 178-440 (.288) And here that information is in a graph: Download attachment: ScoringChart.png So far this season, the Twins have already lost three games in which they allowed four runs and another in which they only allowed three. It’s very unusual to have such a poor record in games where you allow so few runs. Let’s take a look at how previous Twins teams have performed in those situations. Record When Allowing Exactly Three or Four Runs 2021: 1-4 (.200) 2020: 10-8 (.556) 2019: 40-8 (.833) 2018: 26-17 (.605) 2017: 24-10 (.706) 2016: 21-24 (.467) It’s pretty incredible the Twins lost as many of these games last year as they did the year before despite it being a shortened season. And they’re already halfway there this year! Add it up and over those five previous seasons the Twins had a .644 winning percentage in games where they allowed three or four runs. This same concept can be applied to runs scored. The Twins have already lost games where they’ve scored five and six runs, which is also unusual. Record When Scoring Exactly Five or Six Runs 2021: 0-2 (.000) 2020: 7-3 (.700) 2019: 28-11 (.737) 2018: 28-12 (.700) 2017: 22-13 (.629) 2016: 24-17 (.585) This year’s team almost has as many losses in these situations as all of last season. Even the lowly 2016 Twins had a winning record when scoring five or six runs. Over the prior five seasons combined the Twins had a .661 winning percentage when they scored five or six runs. To have this team not consistently scoring enough runs when they need them OR not preventing runs when they need to would be frustrating enough to watch on its own. The fact we’ve been treated to BOTH so far has been downright maddening. That's why the start has felt a lot worse than the 6-8 record. A couple final notes: The seven-inning doubleheaders do throw a bit of a monkey wrench into this line of thinking. The Twins lost one of those games in which they gave up three runs this year. That’s roughly the equivalent of allowing four in a nine-inning game, so I still think it’s fair to count that as a game teams will win more often than not. Also, because I have a hunch someone might ask, here is the Twins record in one-run games over the same time frame we’ve been looking at: Record In One-Run Games 2021: 2-4 (.333) 2020: 9-5 (.643) 2019: 23-12 (.657) 2018: 15-21 (.417) 2017: 15-18 (.455) 2016: 15-29 (.341) MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Some of y'all need to find a sense of humor.

Make it stop, Bryan!!!

Yep, it's definitely early. We shall see, but I'd bet roughly 30 fanbases view their team's bullpen as a weakness right now.

So some more pitcher's fielding practice is in order.

Sure feels like this lineup could use a spark. Too bad they don't have a top hitting prospect just waiting in the wings across town. That'd be too good to be true.

Fact. Bullpen ranks entering today: ERA 8th WHIP 5th FIP 4th xFIP 3rd SIERA 3rd K-BB% 4th CSW 6th And giving up two runs on three hits and a walk over 4 1/3 innings today shouldn't do too much to hurt those numbers. The bullpen's WPA is junk, 19th in the league entering today, and that's part of how we get to 5-5, but all other signs are pointing to this unit not being an area of concern overall. To your other point ... Twins runs scored 2021 Innings 1-3: 21 Innings 4-6: 23 Innings 7-9: 13 When you're basically asking the bullpen to be perfect almost every night it's easy for it to feel like they're performing miserably.

It looks like Colome, Rogers, Duffey and Robles have combined to give up exactly one extra-base hit so far. Yeah, not worried.