Tom Froemming

This story helps set the stage for a truly pivotal offseason ahead. It's just a taste of what you'll find in the 2019 Offseason Handbook, which is currently available for preorder. If you wanna learn more about it, and the benefits of preordering, check out our FAQ. Polanco’s 80-game suspension derailed his 2018 season, but he provided a solid bat upon his arrival. From July 1, 2017 through the end of this season, a sample of 624 plate appearances, he hit .279/.340/.445 (.785), good enough for a 110 wRC+. To put that into perspective, shortstops combined to hit .255/.315/.409 (.724) with a 95 wRC+ in 2018, per FanGraphs. But Polanco’s defense has not been as good, to put it kindly. Despite missing half the season, Polanco committed 13 errors. Only nine other shortstops had more. Polanco had the third-worst fielding percentage of the 35 shortstops who logged at least 500 innings at the position this season and the second-worst UZR/150. But is the offensive production worth the drop in defensive ability? It’s no secret that strikeout rates have escalated the past few years. League average K% has gone up from 17.5 in 2008 to 22.3 in 2018. At the same time, walk rates have remained about the same and home run-to-fly ball ratio has increased from 10.1 percent to 12.7 percent. There are a lot of factors at play in why those numbers have changed, but the end result is fewer balls in play. Last season, the average team had 38 plate appearances per game and a ball was put into play about 66 percent of the time. That gives us a total number of 25 balls in play you can expect your defense to have to try and field in an average game, but of those how many are actually difficult plays? If we look at the Inside Edge fielding numbers for the Twins this season, which are available at FanGraphs, it would appear the vast majority of balls in play fall either into the routine play or impossible categories. 2018 Twins Fielding Data Per Inside Edge (3,714 plays tracked) 0% chance: 12.4% (459 total) 1-10% chance: 4.8% (179) 10-40% chance: 4.3% (160) 40-60% chance: 3.3% (125) 60-90% chance: 6.4% (237) 90-100% chance: 68.8% (2,554) So 81.2 percent of all balls in play were deemed as either routine or impossible and another 6.4 percent land in the 60-90 percentile, leaving only 12.4 percent of all balls in play having a likelihood between 1-60 percent chance of being made. Since there are 25 balls in play each game, that means your defense is only going to be asked to try to field about three of those type of plays in a game. And, of course, your shortstop isn’t even necessarily going to be one of those asked to make those plays. Taking a look ahead to the offseason, the Twins could make a defensive improvement and sign a shortstop like Jose Iglesias with the intention of shifting Polanco over to second base. On the other hand, Iglesias only hit .269/.310/.389 with a 90 wRC+, and even that was a very strong year for him at the plate. Keeping Polanco at shortstop and signing a stronger bat to plug in at second base would leave the Twins a little light in terms of infield defense, but it might be worth the extra firepower. For example, free agent second baseman Jed Lowrie hit .267/.353/.448 with a 122 wRC+ for Oakland. You can apply this same kind of thinking across the diamond. Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Jason Castro all bring plenty to the table defensively, but it's also pretty difficult to try to project any of them to be above league average at the plate. There still may be some growth left with Kepler and Buxton, and you wouldn’t want to go out and downgrade every spot on the diamond, but I still feel like the Twins are in a position to sacrifice defense in order to improve their offense. Circling back to Polanco, of course the Twins would prefer to have a better defensive shortstop, but there are so few two-way players at the position. Even Manny Machado, one of the big fish on this year’s free agent market, leaves a lot to be desired as a shortstop. Also, while Polanco will never be a plus defender at short, I’m hopeful he can avoid some of the mistakes he made in 2018. Often times he seemed rushed -- like the game was a little too fast for him -- on the blatant errors he committed on what should have been routine plays. We didn't see that as often in 2017, which makes me wonder if the suspension had anything to do with the backslide he made in the field. Polanco does not fit the ideal profile at the position, but from a big-picture perspective keeping him as the shortstop gives the Twins a better overall chance to be successful in 2019. For more on Manny Machado, Jose Iglesias, Jed Lowrie and all the other middle infield free agent options, make sure to preorder the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook.

The 2018 Twins team will go down in infamy as the club that suffered 15 walk-off losses. That mark tied a team record, and fell just one shy of the MLB record. But it wasn’t all bad. The Twins had six walk-off victories of their own, and each one tied in nicely with a major story line from the 2018 season. Max Kepler, April 11 vs. Houston Ah April, when hope was still alive all across Twins Territory. Minnesota actually held a two-run lead heading into the ninth inning in this one, but closer Fernando Rodney blew the save, allowing Houston to tie it up. Houston managed to retire the first two Twins batters of the bottom of the ninth but Max Kepler, who had already gone deep early in the game, hit a rocket over the right field wall to end it. This victory gave the Twins a series win over the defending champion Astros. Again, hope was still alive and well. As for Max, this was one of many bright moments he had early in the season. Through April, Kepler was hitting .299/.358/.563 (.921), but he failed to keep that pace going, mirroring the team as a whole in some ways. Ryan LaMarre, April 18 vs, Cleveland (in Puerto Rico) To me, this was the high point of the entire season. Jose Berrios pitched seven shutout innings on his home island, but this game was scoreless through the first 13 innings. Cleveland finally scored in the top of the 14th, but a Miguel Sano home run tied it back up in the bottom of the inning. Things stayed knotted up until the bottom of the 16th, when the Sire of Fort Myers became the Hero of Puerto Rico. Ryan LaMarre was one of the feel-good stories of spring training. The 29-year-old minor league free agent broke camp with the Twins, but saw little playing time and was eventually sent to Rochester for a few games, then recalled to be the 26th man for this series. LaMarre came off the bench in the 10th inning of this game and ended up going 3-for-4 with the walk-off single to top Cleveland and put the Twins back on top of the AL Central standings. The Twins relinquished the lead over the weekend that followed and never recovered. Eddie Rosario, June 3 vs. Cleveland https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1048592270365282304 What an incredible performance this was from Eddie Rosario, who was recently named Twins Daily’s Most Valuable Player for 2018. Rosie socked three home runs, the third of which finished things in walk-off fashion. His WPA on the game was a sky-high .547. To put that into perspective, WPA is designed so that the entire winning team’s roster will combined for .500 WPA. Rosario’s big day gave the Twins their third straight win over Cleveland, pulling them up from 6.5 games back to just 3.5. Eddie had a .317/.352/.573 (.926) batting line at the conclusion of this game, but (similar to Kepler) he eventually faded. Brian Dozier, July 15 vs. Tampa Bay Remember how the Twins climbed back in the race after Rosario’s three-homer day? Well, they followed that up with a stretch in which they went 9-18, dropping them all the way back to 12 games behind Cleveland. The Twins bounced back with a stretch of great play in which they won nine of their final 11 games heading into the break. This was the final game of that hot streak, and it was capped off with a walk-off grand slam from Dozier. It was a wild game to finish the first half. Dozier scored the go-ahead run on a balk he induced in the seventh inning, the Rays appeared to respond by intentionally throwing at Eduardo Escobar (and missing) and the benches cleared. The Twins were winning, showed they had plenty of fight left in them and pulled back form a dozen down to 7.5 back in the division. Poor time for the All-Star break to come. This ended up being Brian Dozier’s final home run with the Twins. Mitch Garver, July 30 vs. Cleveland The Twins failed to make up anymore ground once the second half got rolling, which set the front office into sell mode. Eduardo Escobar was already dealt and the Zach Duke and Lance Lynn trades were announced shortly before the start of this game. It appeared as though the Twins were conceding the division to Cleveland at that point. Somebody forgot to tell Mitch Garver. Garver crushed a walk-off double to beat Cleveland, but despite the big win the Twins still trailed by eight games. More trades were to come ... Willians Astudillo, Sept. 9 vs. Kansas City Plenty of Twins fans tuned out after the trade deadline, which is a shame because there were a few guys who took advantage of the opportunities created by all the roster shake ups. Willians Astudillo was a treasure. A unicorn in today’s baseball landscape, La Tortuga quickly became a fan favorite, and quickly proved he was much more than just a sideshow act. A veteran of eight minor league seasons coming into 2018, Astudillo had never hit more than four home runs in a single season. He found his power stroke in the Twins org, slugging 12 home runs in Rochester before adding three more with the Twins. This walk-off shot was his final round tripper of the season, but Willians would provide plenty more memorable moments through the rest of September. This walk-off win served as another turning point in the Twins’ season. They had won just three of their prior 14 games prior to this game, but went 14-7 to close out the year. That does it for the walk-off highlights, which was your favorite?

Note: This is basically a B-side from the upcoming 2019 Offseason Handbook, which you can now preorder. If you like this piece, you’ll LOVE the handbook. Claim your copy today to get it before its official release. Maybe the solution to getting the Twins turned around isn’t making big, sweeping changes as much as it is knowing when to stop pouring plate appearances into guys who are struggling. Logan Morrison (359 PA, 74 wRC+), Ehire Adrianza (366 PA, 82 wRC+), Ryan LaMarre (109 PA, 75 wRC+) and especially Bobby Wilson (151 PA, 40 wRC+) all got a lot more opportunities than the average team trying to compete would have provided to them. Buxton and Sano were both very bad at the plate last year as well, but both have shown potential and still possess untapped upside. If the Twins intend to be contenders in 2019, the leash needs to be short, however, and the team needs to prepare itself with replacement options should things go poorly again. The Twins appear to already have some viable backup plans if Buxton fails to blossom. Max Kepler has proven to be a capable center fielder and the emergence of Jake Cave creates some additional flexibility. At third base, on the other hand, the Twins are paper thin behind Sano. Finding some insurance at the hot corner needs to be high up on the list of priorities for the front office. Last offseason, Derek Falvey & Co. built in flexibility, creating a team that had the potential to contend, but at the same time would be easy to tear down in the event things didn’t go so well. They added some pieces in the short term without getting too tied down in the long term. They may want to aim to set up a similar flexibility with Buxton and Sano. It’s depressing to have to admit this, but at this point it would be foolish of the Twins to expect Buxton and Sano to realize their potential in 2019. Contingency plans need to be in place, but at the same time it may be equally as foolish to completely give up on those two or sell them off at their lowest value. Everything should be set up to put Buxton and Sano in the best situation to succeed, giving them plenty of opportunities in the early going, but the team also needs to be built with the ability to pivot if those two come out of the gates slumping. The baseball season is so long, so the “take it one day at a time” mantra is usually golden wisdom. Cliches become cliches for a reason. That line of thinking can be dangerous, however, as the games in April and May count every bit as much as those in August and September. Considering how early teams make their buy/sell decisions, one could argue that those early games are even more important. Both Buxton and Sano possess a profile that provides potential flexibility. If Sano comes out slumping, there’s nothing wrong with him shifting to the bench for a spell. As a corner infielder who mashes lefties, it’s not like he’d be out of place as a bench bat/platoon DH. Similarly with Buxton, he could provide plenty of value off the bench as a late-inning pinch runner and defensive replacement. They both have specialized skills that would make them attractive even in a temporary reserve role. We’ve seen plenty of players have several false starts on the road to becoming everyday players. It seemed like Eduardo Escobar flip-flopped from being on the bench to being counted on as a starter every other season. Aaron Hicks also experienced several failures to launch. Doug Mientkiewicz, Torii Hunter and David Ortiz are just a few of the many other names that fit into this category. We’ve been talking about these two guys for years and have seen them up in the big leagues for several seasons now, but it’s so easy to forget that Byron Buxton is only 24-years-old and Miguel Sano is 25. There’s no reason to give up, but the Twins would be wise to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Hungry for more? Preorder the Offseason Handbook, which will include loads more speculation and analysis.

Of all the things that went wrong for the Twins in 2018, the organization has to especially feel good about the fact that Berrios took another step toward emerging as one of the game’s best starters. The first thing that stick out about Berrios’ numbers are the strikeouts. He increased his K/9 rate from 8.59 in 2017 to 9.45 this season and is K% boosted from 22.6 to 25.4 in 2018. There are certain milestones that stand out for a pitcher, and reaching 200 strikeouts is certainly one of them. “That was one of my goals before the season started,” Berrios said. “That’s when I wrote it down and I accomplished it and I’m thankful to God for that.” That’s a landmark milestone to achieve, but the Twins believe Berrios, still only 24-years-old, can get even better. “We all feel that he’s not done learning,” Paul Molitor said. “He’s one of those kids that’s going to embrace the year, in terms of reflection. Think about the things that worked, positivity about those things, but also how to avoid some of those stretches or some starts where things kind of got away from him.” Berrios has no problems with those high expectations. "I want to be one of the best pitchers in the league,” Berrios said. “I think I have the material to do that and to be the best pitcher on this team so that Minnesota can construct around me and build a winning team." Berrios has some things to address before he reaches his goal of becoming among the game’s best. He had a hard time on the road and in day games, experienced a bit of a dip in the second half and could have been better with runners on. Kyle Gibson had a great year himself, and was more consistent. He bested Berrios in both ERA and innings, but Jose held the advantage in FIP and paced Gibby in both WHIP (1.14 vs. 1.30) and K:BB ratio (3.31 vs. 2.27) by a wide margin. The best news for the Twins? Their trio of top starters are all set to return in 2019 and Michael Pineda should be ready to go by Opening Day. There’s also Adalberto Mejia, Chase De Jong, Aaron Slegers and the bevy of others who debuted this season like Fernando Romero, Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves and Zack Littell. Plus Lewis Thorpe, among others, is waiting in the wings and the front office will surely look to add more arms. Will 2019 finally be the year the Twins have enough pitching? That will remain to be seen, but having Berrios motivated to get even better is a great place to start. THE BALLOTS Here's a look at the ballots from each of our seven voters. As you can see, this was not a unanimous decision. Seth Stohs: 1) Gibson, 2), Berrios, 3) Rogers, 4) Rodney Nick Nelson: 1) Berrios, 2) Gibson, 3) Rogers, 4) Odorizzi John Bonnes: 1) Gibson, 2) Berrios, 3) Rogers, 4) Odorizzi Tom Froemming: 1) Berrios, 2) Gibson, 3) Odoizzi, 4) Rogers Cody Christie: 1) Berrios, 2) Gibson, 3) Odorizzi, 4) Rogers Steve Buhr: 1) Berrios, 2) Gibson, 3) Rogers, 4) Odorizzi Ted Schwerzler: 1) Berrios, 2) Rogers, 3) Gibson, 4) Odorizzi POINTS Berrios 26 Gibson 22 Rogers 13 Odorizzi 8 Rodney 1 PREVIOUS PITCHER OF THE YEAR WINNERS 2015: Kyle Gibson 2016: Ervin Santana 2017: Ervin Santana OTHER 2018 AWARD WINNERS Most Improved: Kyle Gibson Rookie of the Year: Mitch Garver Player of the Year: Coming soon Do you agree with our committee's pick? Who would be your choice for Best Twins Pitcher and why?

Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Littell: 52 Game Score, 4.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 70.0% strikes (49 of 70 pitches) Home Runs: Kepler (20) Multi-Hit Games: Kepler 2-for-4, 2B WPA of 0.1 or higher: May .368, Rogers .200, Kepler .189, Forsythe .175, Drake .126 WPA of -0.1 or lower: Belisle -.195, Hildenberger -.302 It’s important to note that Joe still hasn’t decided what’s to come in 2019. Some of the speculation as to why Mauer avoided making an announcement earlier was that he wanted to dodge the spotlight. Well, there was no way for Mauer to find shelter from the ovations, applause and appreciation that was showered down upon him Sunday. And you know what the best part was? He seemed to revel in it. Sundays at Target Field are kid’s days, and part of what makes them special is some lucky youngsters get to stand with a player on the field during the pregame ceremonies. Well this time it was Joe’s twin daughters Emily and Maren who met him on the field. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1046492557205692417 Prior to his first plate appearance, the White Sox faded to the background to allow Mauer to get the spotlight treatment. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1046482677371535360 Mauer received a standing ovation each time he stepped into the box today, and the stadium erupted when he hit a double in the seventh inning. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1046512332434624512 Pack it in, there’s no way you can possibly top that, right? Right!? Wait … https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1046519774287552512 If this is it, what a way to go out. Mauer will have a growing family to enjoy and there will surely be plenty of updates to the tributes that adorn Target Field. Mauer’s number will join those that have been retired, there will likely be a Gate 7 established and a statue will be erected of him. A bar named in his honor? Well ... don’t hold your breath on that one. No matter what’s next, Joe Mauer’s legacy is secure. I’m sure he appreciates that his teammates helped end the season with a victory. The Twins closed out 2018 by winning their final six games, giving them a 78-84 record on the season. Postgame With Mauer https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1046524930114764801 Last Three Games MIN 8, CHW 3: Twins Continue Trend of Finishing Strong MIN 12, CHW 4: Garver Drives In 6, Mauer Showered With Applause MIN 2, CHW 1: Berrios Reaches 200 Ks This has been a tough year for Twins Territory. We’ve certainly suffered through worse, but this season’s high hopes were dashed so quickly, and it left a rotten taste in the mouths of much of the fan base, as evidence by the venting that’s gone on at this site this season. I want to thank everyone who’s continued to check out these recaps on a regular basis. No matter how much fan interest seem to dwindle, I always knew there were going to be people looking for a game recap at Twins Daily. Whether you looked to these to keep up to date on the team or just needed a place for some group therapy among fellow fans, thank you for your support. I truly appreciate it. A big thank you and much love also to the moderators. I’ve also, as always, got to thank Seth, John, Nick, Parker and Brock for the opportunity to do my thing here. By green lighting these game recaps last year, you guys basically opened the door for me to be the primary voice on the site in a lot of ways. It’s a privilege and an honor that I don’t take lightly. Alright, it’s time to put these recaps to bed. See you again March 28, 2019 at Target Field. Here’s hoping No. 7 will join us.

Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Gibson: 68 Game Score, 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 59.6% strikes (59 of 99 pitches) Home Runs: None Multi-Hit Games: Polanco (3-for-5), Mauer (2-for-4, BB), Astudillo (2-for-5, 2B), Field (2-for-4, 2B) WPA of 0.1 or higher: Cave .173, Polanco .111, Mauer .108 WPA of -0.1 or lower: None Gibson gave up a run in the first, but the Twins weren’t down long, as Jake Cave hit a two-run double in the bottom of the inning. In the second, White Sox starter Carlos Rodon unraveled. Rodon’s final line: 1.0 IP, 6 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 2 K. Ouch. The Twins didn’t pile anything else on from there and Gibby flipped over into cruise control. Jorge Polanco had three more hits, boosting his average to .291 and his OPS to .778. Joe Mauer reached base three times. Buckle up for tomorrow, Target Field is going to be a mess. Perfect magical unicorn Willians Astudillo had two more hits, including an RBI double. Major League Baseball player Johnny Field was 2-for-4 with a double, This will not go down as a memorable season in the annals of Twins history, but the team has won five straight games and 10 of its last 13. Remaining Games Sun vs. CHW, 2:10pm CT: Zack Littell vs. Dylan Covey Last Three Games MIN 12, CHW 4: Garver Drives In 6, Mauer Showered With Applause MIN 2, CHW 1: Berrios Reaches 200 Ks MIN 9, DET 3: Vive La Tortuga

Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) De Jong: 52 Game Score, 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 63.5% strikes (47 of 74 pitches) Home Runs: None Multi-Hit Games: Garver (4-for-5, 2 2B), Mauer (2-for-4, BB), Cave (2-for-4, 2B, BB), Grossman (2-for-4) WPA of 0.1 or higher: Garver .202, De Jong .101 WPA of -0.1 or lower: None Mauer, who served as the DH in both games of Friday’s doubleheader, was lifted for a pinch-runner after hitting a single in the sixth inning. Manager Paul Molitor took advantage of the opportunity to manufacture a memorable moment, and Twins Territory responded accordingly. Mitch Garver was at first base for tonight’s game, making his first start since suffering a concussion Sept. 12. Apparently he’s seeing the ball well. Garver hit a two-run double in the first inning, another run-scoring double in the second, added a two-run single in the third then just for good measure added an RBI single in the fifth. He was a one-man wrecking crew, finishing the night 4-for-5 with a career-high six runs batted in. "We just saw a steady growth of Mitch as a hitter," Paul Molitor said. "There’s been a lot of times particularly in the second half where he’s taken pitches to the opposite field in run-scoring situations to cash in some people. We always talked that the bat played and the more at-bats he’s gotten the more confidence and results." Chase De Jong earned his first MLB victory after pitching six innings. He gave up four hits and walked a batter while striking out four. The only two runs he gave up were on solo home runs. "Last year technically I started in the big leagues and ended at Double-A," De Jong said. "This year was all about reestablishing myself as a quality starter and that I could go out there and put together quality innings. I've done that. I've proven that to myself and now I've proven to the Minnesota Twins. It's wonderful to finish the year on a high note." Remaining Games Sat vs. CHW, 6:10 pm CT: Kyle Gibson vs. Carlos Rodon Sun vs. CHW, 2:10pm CT: Zack Littell vs. Dylan Covey Last Three Games MIN 2, CHW 1: Berrios Reaches 200 Ks MIN 9, DET 3: Vive La Tortuga MIN 11, DET 4: Bats Bust Out, Bullpen Shuts Out Detroit