mazeville

Nunez is in his prime and has a career OPS of .698. His performance with the bat last year was 50 points higher than normal and 100 points higher than the year before. Arcia is still quite young and, though his WAR remains weak, he is a force versus lefties and still has growing to do. Do not be so fast to give up on him. In any event, the choice isn't Arcia v. Nunez. In a trade-Plouffe scenario, your 3B is Sano, not Nunez. And you put Arcia in the outfield. Nunez is there as your emergency option in case Sano doesn't pan out.

RF is Arcia. My entire original comment was mostly about Arcia. He hit 20 homers and had a .752 OPS in 2014. And he has a career OPS of .807 v. righthanders. Did he have a bad 2015? Sure. But he remains a potential force in the lineup.

Buxton doesn't have to hit much to have some real value in the outfield. And I think the "if" with him is overstated a bit. He has performed at every level of the minors. The backup on Rosario is Kepler. Arcia has a ton of power. Are there risks in having a young outfield? Absolutely. But there are risks all over the Twins' lineup and on the pitching staff. Brian Dozier is a fairly big IF at second base. Phil Hughes is a big IF on the starting staff. The entire bullpen is loaded with IFs. And the outfield with our without Sano is full of IFs. This organization has a lot of outfielders. It really didn't need to add one in Sano.

First, if the Twins are intent on playing Sano in RF, this is the right move. Put him in RF. Don't have him play 3B. Nothing unreasonable about this whatsoever. People like me should probably get past the Plouffe thing. But to me the issue isn't about Plouffe, per se, but about roster balance. Plouffe plays third. Sano plays third. Plouffe is an average third baseman overall, which is why his value on the open market is not that strong. Sano has MUCH more potential and will be cheaper for the next few years. The team also has players who could step into third in a pinch if Sano doesn't work out, so the idea that there aren't backup options is a false narrative. Meanwhile, the team has this backlog of outfielders, even after the Hicks trade. Oswaldo Arcia, his 2015 notwithstanding, has the potential to produce just as much as Plouffe. And he's a lot cheaper. If Arcia doesn't work out, there is Max Kepler. The money the team would save from replacing Plouffe with, effectively, Arcia or Kepler could have been spent on a reliever. I get that the return just isn't there for someone like Plouffe. But keeping legacy players who are starting to cost more money when there are better and cheaper options because you can't get a return just doesn't make that much sense. Plouffe was a 2.5 WAR player last year, which was 15th in the league -- decidedly middle of the pack during his prime. The biggest danger isn't somehow damaging Sano -- though it is frustrating to see a team focus on a player learning third base throughout his minor league career only to suddenly switch him to OF simply to keep a 2.5 WAR player. The biggest, rather, is the risk in losing someone like Arcia who has a ton of potential. And everybody on here knows that the moment the team puts him on waivers, someone else will pick him up and he will become the modern day version of David Ortiz.

This is perfect. I don't agree with everything in this, and would characterize the Twins' system as overly cautious and underaggressive. That is who Terry Ryan is. But the team's foray into free agency was both early and a mistake. They signed too many guys, blocking the way for younger, cheaper and higher-upside talent while effectively preventing the team, which is now a potential contender, from going out to get one guy who really could push the team over the top. In any event, the team SHOULD have had a lower payroll in recent years while it stocked its roster with young talent. It should have made more aggressive moves of all sorts to stockpile young talent. And then, once that talent started to mature and produce results, it should have gone out into the free agent market to get a couple of guys who could put the team over the top. Instead, the Twins' efforts appear to be more of a scattered series of signings designed to assuage the masses. It just doesn't seem very well organized.

The Twins needed a STARTER? Why do people say that? I'm not a fan of the Twins' offseason. Not really. I don't like Sano to the outfield. I think they should have traded Plouffe. I agree generally that they could have been more aggressive with the relief pitching. I'd have rather the Twins have kept Hicks. I think the Park signing, while finally demonstrating a willingness to go out and get foreign talent, is probably unnecessary given the presence of players like Arcia and Vargas and, before he was let go, Josmil Pinto. BUT ... there is no way the Twins need another starter. As it is, the team has too many starters and one or two guys who are more or less guaranteed roster spots because of their salaries. Phil Hughes, if he can return to form from 2014 (maybe, maybe not) is a top-end starter. Ervin Santana is solid. Kyle Gibson is solid. Tommy Milone is a decent back-end guy. Tyler Duffy was excellent as a rookie late last season. Trevor May SHOULD be starting. Jose Berrios deserves a shot this year. Ricky Nolasco will probably end up in the bullpen but could start, too. And remember that Alex Meyer is still there and just one year ago was considered the potential rotation savior. That's like 8 billion starters. The team needs to shed starters, if anything. Oh, sure, there were lots of FA starters who would have been improvements. But they cost a ton of money and a lot of years and would have continued to hamstring the team when there are cheaper options coming up through the ranks.

Do you listen to talk radio? Read comments in Strib blogs and sometimes here? A lot of fans think the Twins should have gone out and signed someone akin to Grienke. And plenty of bloggers like Gleeman throw fuel on that fire by heavily criticizing payroll -- which is an indirect way of saying that the team should sign a major free agent like Grienke -- even though the Twins' awful losing in recent years demanded a cheap, build-from-within strategy. Also, Reusse, or even radio talkers and newspaper columnists, hardly have the market cornered for criticizing the most vocal and critical fans. Hell, fan criticism provides about a third of the fodder bloggers use to fill pages. That's kind of the point. Fans criticize a team's moves, and then others criticize the criticism.

I'm no fan of the Twins' offseason, but D- is harsh. And there's little argument other than the generic, "did little to improve ..." The Park signing is a good one -- an aggressive move for a potentially impact right-handed bat. No, nobody knows how that bat will translate. But that's true for all such moves for foreign players. They went and got Murphy, upgrading at catcher. No, he's not a potential all star. But he's a potential starter. And that's more than they've had. And remember the Twins traded from an area of strength in dealing Hicks -- team is literally overrun with outfielders. They didn't do much to address their bullpen. I get that. But honestly, they should get a C grade, maybe a C- grade. Whatever.

That's an average variation of about 8.3 wins, which means that the Twins could end up anywhere from 71 to 87 wins. If the standings are similar this year to last year, that means the Twins would either be last in the AL Central or a wild card team. The stat in Gleeman's tweet is virtually worthless. It's almost a complete statistical anomaly that it ended up as close as it did. That said, it IS interesting. And it's it's nearly impossible to predict a baseball season because of so many variables like luck and injuries and all that. And if I recall correctly, PECOTA last year predicted a big decline for Joe Mauer, and that's exactly what happened. I actually view a 78-win projection as pretty solid. The Twins won 82 games with a suspect roster last year, and so they're only projecting a four-win decline. Whether anybody likes it or not, this team has a lot to prove.

I don't mind taking fliers on guys. And whatever. It's not my money. But I'm not entirely sure why they'd do this. This team has so many corner outfielders/DH types it's not even funny.

I am not assuming. TR said today, per Mike Baradino, that he didn't entertain any offers. I get why we should be careful not to assume, and I'm not doing it here. And I also agree that the team shouldn't give him away. But not even trying? You can't judge the market until you test it.

I agree that you don't trade a guy just to trade a guy, but TR said the team didn't even entertain offers. That suggests the team didn't even try. You don't know what the market is unless you test it. Also, you have to analyze the Frazier trade based on what the Sox gave up and not what the Reds got because they liked the Dodgers prospects more. And based on analyses the Sox gave up the better prospects.

p 1. They didn't consult me. I wish they did, but they didn't. 2. I didn't just make that contention up. Terry Ryan said that today. I tend to take him at his word. 3. I doubt this management team is waiting for the right market and are thus waiting until the trade deadline, but that's a scenario I didn't think about. 4. Twins aren't that close to winning a series. But you fill holes by trading from areas of strength ... Like 3B.

I think it's evidence the Twins overvalue Plouffe. I'm not saying they should dump Plouffe for a "mid-level relief prospect," but I also believe that done correctly he'd fetch more than that. There is also the question of what to do with Arcia. In any event, the Twins didn't even entertain offers. How do you know you won't get anything if you don't entertain offers? I don't think any of the third basemen traded are similar to Plouffe. Todd Frazier was an all-star and fetched three players. David Freese is an older player past his prime. So I'm not sure where the evidence is that the market stunk -- but I might have missed something. This is part of what I think frustrates so many fans. The team has entirely too many legacy players like this who keep spots because they're too good to trade for what the market will pay for them. Or because they don't have the value they once did. Meanwhile, teams like the Cubs and the As somehow manage to use trades to quickly rebuild their farm systems.

Twins should trade Plouffe. They're not trading Plouffe. They didn't even consider it or entertain offers. Awful. Plouffe has a career average OPS+ of 99. His best year, 2014, he had an OPS+ of 110. By contrast, Miguel Sano in his one year had an OPS+ of 146. He was a rookie. So Sano has a much bigger bat at third. True, by keeping Plouffe and moving Sano to the outfield, you get to keep both players. And isn’t that better than just one? But think about this: Oswaldo Arcia has career OPS+ of 104, and in 2014 had an OPS+ of 108 while hitting 20 homers in 410 at-bats. Even last year, an alleged disaster, he had an OPS+ of 96. He is younger and has more potential. So it’s safe to say that the Twins would easily recover any lost offense by losing Plouffe by simply playing Arcia, who couldn’t be any worse defensively than Sano. The down side, of course, is that the team loses the benefit of Plouffe’s defense. And I understand a field with Sano and Arcia at the same time is probably worse than a field with Sano and Plouffe. But it’s also important to note that the team has other options in the outfield, like Max Kepler. And they would have had a really good option in right in Aaron Hicks had they not traded him shortly after the World Series. Sano should be able to improve his fielding at the corner. If not, why keep him at third until just recently? If this was that much of an issue, why not him in the OF a few times in AA? He didn’t play any games in the outfield.

I'd rather give the playing time to Arcia. But I like the thinking behind it. I still don't quite understand the Twins' thinking in not trading Plouffe. Arcia earned the benefit of the doubt in 2014, and while he struggles in the OF, he can't be any worse than Sano would be. By trading Plouffe, you'd effectively replace him in the lineup with Arcia, who has a higher career OPS+ (104 v. 99) even though he is younger and has more power potential. Arcia can't be any worse than Sano in the OF would be. So the only thing you lose is Plouffe's 3B defense. But Sano's defense can't be that much worse. And his offense is MUCH better. Also, he's much cheaper. Nothing against Plouffe at all. I just think this is one of those times when you trade that established veteran, get something back for him, and play young guys who need the at-bats. Otherwise, they risk dumping Arcia for pennies on the dollar. And if Arcia doesn't work out, there is always Max Kepler. And if they don't want to do that, corner outfielders almost literally grow on trees.

That roster looks a little depressing. It really would have been nice if the team signed or traded for another really good back-end arm. Now just you watch: Perkins returns to form, Jepsen is lights out again, May is dominant, Abad is "Agood" and someone like Alex Meyer and/or Nick Burdi get called up and dominate themselves, giving the team a killer bullpen and proving everyone wrong.

They actually are two fairly big deals. They did something. Not nothing. I loved the Park deal. I didn't like the Hicks deal. But regardless of that, it's not nothing. What they haven't done is be more aggressive to address their bullpen. That's a legitimate complaint. But I still don't think that's about cheapness. It's just about philosophy. The other issue is that I think fans want them to be more aggressive and do something big. But I'm not entirely sure what they'd do. Could they sign a No. 1 starter? I suppose, but that's assuming the top-end starters would come here. Besides, at this point barring some form of trade the Twins have too many options among their starting pitchers. Could they have signed another impact bat like Cespedes? I suppose. I wouldn't mind seeing that, necessarily. But their decision to put Sano in the outfield negates that possibility because they're already loaded with outfielders. Also, I'm not sure that Cespedes would have come here for the deal he got with the Mets. God I hate the decision to put Sano in the outfield. Bugs me the more I think about it. They could have traded Plouffe, put Sano at third, signed Cespedes, and their payroll would be a little more than it was in 2011. Alas, they didn't.

I'm not saying the Twins should have traded Hicks. I'd have rather they have traded Plouffe and put Sano at third. Actually, I'd have rather they put Mauer at third to take advantage of his athleticism and put Sano at first. All I said was they haven't sat on their hands, because they haven't. They've done some stuff. I don't agree with all of it. But I won't say they've done nothing.

Uh, actually, they chose both options -- they traded from an area of strength (outfield) to shore up an area of weakness (catcher) and they signed Byung Ho Park. I get that a DH wasn't a big area of need. But you can't argue that they didn't do anything this offseason when in fact they made two fairly big deals. I'm not the biggest fan of what the Twins are doing. I'd rather they trade Plouffe and signed a back-end reliever. But they haven't sat on their hands, either.

Yes, it is. And their payroll is up by more than a third since 2013 with only one good season to show for it. And $10 million Hunter was replaced by Byung Ho Park. Payroll counting the posting fee the Twins had to pay for Park is down only slightly from last year.

Yeah, you know, probably not many because the team's farm system was in complete disarray for a long time. But the "cheap" strategy would have been to sign cheaper players for shorter-term deals rather than someone like Nolasco or Santana.

I liked this post, in general. But I do have a real problem with people complaining simply that the Pohlads are "cheap" and "should spend more money" because it's a tired, old argument that just doesn't hold water. The Twins are conservative, not cheap. Their problems are with strategy, not spending. The best sign that the team is not cheap came this summer, when they opted not to trade Plouffe, who will make more than $7 million a year, rather than play Sano at third, who makes a rookie contract. Instead, they are oddly moving Sano to the outfield, where the team has a lot of young talent (and where the cheaper Aaron Hicks and his defense probably would have been the better option, or perhaps Oswaldo Arcia and his left-handed power bat would have been good). I'd also remind people that they signed three free agent starters to multi-year deals in the previous two seasons when the smart strategy might have been to use those rotation spots for young players who might grow into reliable starters. That certainly would have been the cheap strategy. I would LOVE to see the Twins make a big free agent splash now and then, too. I think they should have signed a quality late-inning reliever rather than trade for one. I just don't think their decisions recently have been cheap. They've been the decisions of a conservative front office building mostly with young players.

Generally agree with this. The Twins should have traded Plouffe for a starting catcher rather than Hicks so they could have a plus outfield again. But I would much rather have Mauer in the outfield than Sano -- there is just no way he will do much out there with his size. And with the huge outfield at Target Field, it makes sense to have outfielders who can move. Mauer is athletic enough to be able to handle the position. Heck, he should have been moved to third base rather than third when they decided to move him off of catcher in the first place. I still say that Plouffe should be traded, Mauer moved to third and Sano to first. But the Twins are apparently dead set against trading him. Ugh. In any event, I just do not understand the idea of moving Sano to the outfield. The Twins would risk their defense and risk ruining one of their best prospects. It just makes no sense.

Ryan himself said that he was disappointed in himself in his performance at the winter meetings this year. He has his way of doing things. And the first is to go cheap with the bullpen, usually picking up junk on the scrap heap and turning a few of them (Blaine Boyer) into serviceable relievers. I think the Twins' best option remains developing their own relievers. I'm not saying they shouldn't go out and get someone -- and I'm hopeful they'll trade for someone like Drew Storen. But developing the young guys enables the Twins to benefit for many years while those relievers establish their dominance. In theory.