Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

whydidnt

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    577

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by whydidnt

  1. whydidnt
    What's false about it? The proof is in the results, and this team has had lousy results for 4 straight years. What recent moves has the current front office made that shows they are up to the task of putting together a winning major league team? Where are all those diamonds in the rough Ryan is supposed to find. Where are all those unknown minor league players we got for an aging veteran at he trade deadline? In the last 3 years, what besides signing Phil Hugh's has the FO done that has turned out to be a big positive for the team. These are things you should consider before rushing to defend moves like this?
  2. whydidnt
    Blaine Boyer has 8 years of major league experience as a reliever with an ERA of 4.63. I think that speaks more for his true ability than 4 weeks of sping training. Really, what is the point of having him on our major league roster at this point? Because he "battles" and is a good guy? If he's truly better than our younger options then our future is much worse than most of us hope. I would debate you that this is the best team too, it's certainly has the most mediocre veterans though.
  3. whydidnt
    It would only be valid if the guys they used instead of Gibson, etc. actually consistently produced, which they haven't. All the Twins are doing is trading inconsistent, terrible, performance from a veteran in place of the chance that a guy like Gibson or Meyer, or whoever, might not be consistent. Most young players need to play at the major league level for a while to adjust and become consistent, the Twins seem intent on delaying that forever.
  4. whydidnt
    Really, you think Blaine Boyer is a better pick then Tonkin or Burdi for this teams bull pen? Both Meyer and May have a history of success at both AA and AAA, and are mature by prospect standards, we nee to see Tommy Milone or Mike Pelfry instead of these guys. Aaron Hicks, despite all his troubles, hit's lefties pretty well, why do we send him to AAA and keep Robinson at the Major League level to presumably play against lefties. You would hope teams would make the decision to go with players that have a low upside, but a known floor when they are contending or close to it. When you have been lousy for 4 straight seasons and have guys that have produced at the minor league level, it might be time to give some of the high upside guys a shot. I'm not talking about blowing up the team, like Houston did, I'm talking about not signing mediocre 30 year olds with no upside to block players that have done well at the higher level of the minors. The Twins are either a poor judge of talent, as evidenced by trading established players for May and Meyer or they are awful at developing players since they don't have confidence to promote them over guys with no upside. Which is it?
  5. whydidnt
    Whether you agree with the final decisions or not, I think the fact that these discussions are happening points to a problem of roster management. When you have been very bad for 4 straight years, and much of the fan base is hoping a highly rated, and hyped, farm system is going to be the cure, why do continue to fill your roster with Robinson, Pelfrey, Milone, Boyer, Duensing, Stauffer, etc. These are not guys that are going to lead any team to contention or even respecability. Heck they ADDED or resigned 1/2 these guys in the off-season, they actively went looking for mediocre players that would in all likelihood block young guys, who need to learn some at the major league level. Either that or the young guys aren't very good to begin with AND we really don't have any hope for the future. It just seems the FO doesn't have a plan, they just grab whoever is willing to sign for a couple million and throw them out there.
  6. whydidnt
    Well, I think the Twins record over he last 4 years is plenty of evidence of the front office's abilities. I don't need an excuse to attck them, the results speak for themselves. The team has been awful, yet the FO continues to make safe, conservative moves instead of trying aggressively to change the roster and style. For the last 3 years on this forum, we have had supporters say over and over, if things don't change next year, they'll call the FO out. When things don't change, the same people say wait til next year. I'm done giving the benefit of the doubt. I want to see real meaningful attempts to improve, not just sell tickets.
  7. whydidnt
    All valid points, except I really don't see a lot of change over the last few years. Some of the names of changed, but not as many as you would hope after 4 straight awful seasons. At some point you have to say what you've been doing hasn't been working at try something else. Instead we continue to see tweaks and conservative moves. Heck, even after the worst 4 years in franchise history, the Twins couldnt even bring themselves to replace the entire coaching staff, and one of their signature moves was to bring in a 40 year old ex-Twin. When you are as bad as the Twins have been I would think they would want to try something new.
  8. whydidnt
    Didn't Ryan basically say the same thing the last couple of years? I don't think it's really news that he says it. I just think he's either a very poor judge of baseball talent, or he doesn't want to tell the fans what he really thinks when they are trying to sell tickets. I think it's the latter, but tend to worry that perhaps it's the former.
  9. whydidnt
    Thanks for the research, I was going to look it up, since they haven't "seemed" young to me over the last few years. My opinion hasn't changed, the front office should have done more to turn over the roster after 4 straight awful years.
  10. whydidnt
    I guess I don't see it this way. All of those guys are younger players, and younger players tend to get better, rather than worse. Kluber was really good down the stretch in 2013 as well, I think he's the real deal. Not sure they are outliers or not, but even if they regress, most of those guys you mentioned would be one, if not THE Twins best player. If Brantley regresses to .280 - 15 HR, 25 SB, he's still better than any Twins OF. If Kluber's ERA rises by 1/2 run, he's still better than our best, Abreu could lose 10 HR's and still lead the Twins in HRs, while hitting .300 The one I think is that a lot of people don't realize how much worse than everyone else the Twins have been the last few seasons. Sure they may improve, but not enough to really make a huge difference in the standings. Their starting pitching is bound to be better, but just being better doesn't guaranty more wins, if the other guys still are better than yours.
  11. whydidnt
    Interesting story over at Sportsonearth: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/111159344/major-league-baseball-teams-with-most-and-least-roster-turnover Reviews the number of players still with an organization that were on that teams 25 man roster at the beginning of 2014. The Twins are 2nd in the AL with 17 players remaining, meaning they have the 2nd lowest turnover in the AL, with only the Orioles ahead of them. Am I the only one that finds it strange that one of the teams with the worst records in the league is going into the following season with one of the most stable rosters? Seems like the Twins plan is to hope the guys they have get better - AND keep in mind that turnover already includes guys like Santana and Vargas who came up after the year started last year. Stability is a good thing when you have a good team, however, it makes no sense to keep the same guys year after year if they are only getting you to 70 wins. I'm sure there are circumstances, such as a younger roster that contribute to things, but it's also decisions to stick with Duensing, Pelfrey, Hicks, etc. as potential key contributors that concern me. I just don't think the front office did enough this year to address the teams problems.
  12. whydidnt
    Tough concept to bet on because ideally the Twins would go with the best player in each of these battles, rather than an all or nothing thing. I think in total the vets would probably win more games this year, but if you could pick and chose the battles that a combo team would do better than either. It's much easier to see going with the young pitchers having a more positive impact this year, than the hitters.
  13. whydidnt
    Keep in mind that the rest of the teams in the division have also been trying to improve as well. I think it's very realistic to think the Twins offense will be average this year, combine that with below average pitching, despite adding Santana and you end up with a 5th year of bad teams. While the Vegas line of 68.5 seems low - Vegas has been pretty accurate AND high on the Twins over the last three years: Year Vegas Actual 2012 73 66 2013 67.5 66 2014 71.5 70 It's safe to surmise that most everyone, including the odds makers, thought the Twins would bounce back somewhat from the unexpected disaster of 2011, but they have been pretty spot on the last couple of years. If I look at the division, I really am not optimistic that the Twins can finish ahead of any of the other teams. The White Sox addressed several needs, the Tigers still have Price, Verlander & Sanchez atop their rotation and added Cespedes to replace Hunter in decent lineup. The Indians have the Cy Young winner and a solid lineup, and the Royals will miss Shields, but are the defending AL Champs. I think the expectations are about right barring a surprise early impact from guys like Sano, Buxton, Meyer and or Rosario I don't think they will be much better than last year. Judging by the Twins handling of Meyer and May, I just don't think any of these guys are going to get much of a chance to have an impact this year.
  14. whydidnt
    I enjoyed both parts of this article, thank's for posting it. The one thing that is almost impossible to do when writing a retrospective such as this measuring the things not done, since we don't know what we don't know. I am one of those that thinks one of Ryan's biggest weaknesses is NOT making moves that need to be made. I really felt like some of those early 2000 teams could really have had a shot at winning the World Series if only Ryan had been willing to make a deal or two to bring in another player. At that point it seemed as we were more worried about keeping a prospect like J.D. Durbin than potentially winning a World Series. We will never know what options he had back then, though. I think in his most recent stint as GM we have seen some of the same, with aversion to signing higher end Free Agents, particularly pitchers until the last couple of years, and even then only targeting the middle of the group. These types of things can't be measured, by WAR, so it's left to conjecture by Arm-Chair GM's such as myself!
  15. whydidnt
    I would take that bet. He hasn't been league average for a few years, and unfortunately he's getting older, which typically means he isn't getting better. I actually am pretty concerned about Hunter's offense too, at this age. He kept his average up last year by swinging (and often hitting) everything. That is a lot of if's just to get to a winning season. I hope things go that way, but don't really think adding Santana and Stauffer turns the worst staff in the league into league average, especially when the OF defense is still in need of major improvement. Even if we take the defensive numbers with some skepticism, there has to be some fire around that smoke, which was really the point of the original post. The Twins have had a few weaknesses over the last few years, and seemingly don't care to improve them, with OF defense being the top of the list.
  16. whydidnt
    The article provide additional evidence regarding what some of us have been saying over the last couple of years...Terry Ryan seems to have fallen behind the times when it comes to building teams. There was time, before all of the additional data was available, where OF defense was more of a 2nd thought. Those times have changed, as many organizations now know better. It just seems the Twins haven't really figured that out, especially when you have, and have had, a pitching staff that is by far the worst in the league at striking out hitters.
  17. whydidnt
    In 2014, 13 teams had bullpens with a team ERA of 3.33 or less. Almost have the teams had a combined ERA out of the pen at 3.33, so yes, there a lot of teams that have staffs loaded with sub 3.3 ERA guys. I agree that Fien and Stauffer would have roles on other teams, not sure about Duensing, but since he's a lefty, he'd probably have a situational one. Where I disagree is that I don't think too many teams would be looking at those 3 as their top high leverage guys behind the closer. Fien perhaps in a setup role, but neither Stauffer or Duensing has the track record to suggest they are a good late inning fit. My point isn't that the world will end because of Stauffer's signing, rather it doesn't seem to fill any real need the Twins have right now, and could potentially block needed development of younger players for very little marginal gain.
  18. whydidnt
    They shouldn't be too far away, unless they take the same path that Gibson, May and Meyer are taking, which means they are all 2-3 years away...and are blocked by guys like Pelfrey, Stauffer and Duensing. It seems every off season, we hear the same thing about prospects being close and every year we keep waiting for them to arrive. Look back at messages from the last two off seasons about when we expected other Twins pitchers to make the club. Could probably add Tonkin to that list as well. Signing Stauffer for just over $2 mil isn't a bad deal, it just doesn't fit what the Twins need at this point, at least to me.
  19. whydidnt
    Not just referring to K%, but rather overall potential. Stauffer has been pitching in the best pitcher's park in baseball for the last 9 years to the tune of a 3.99 FIP and a 1.308 WHIP. He has a track record of being okay, but even San Diego didn't use him high leverage situations, with a total of 7 Holds and 1 blown save to go with his 0 saves over that time. Yes he started some, but a majority of his work has been out of the pen. He's not a bad back of the pen guy, but I would rather see a Meyer or May, or even Tonkin get some major league experience than Stauffer at this point.
  20. whydidnt
    Nothing wrong with the signing as a guy to replace Burton, I guess... If they were going to bring in a RP, I would have preferred someone who was a bit better to be the 8th inning guy. It seems like we have a lot of BP candidates already when you factor in the young guys who probably won't make the rotation. Most of the RH guys are already pretty similar to Stauffer, so other than competition, not sure what he really brings to the table, but at least he's not horrible. Still really, really want to see them bring in a guy we can count on to start in CF, either via trade or FA signing. Would much rather they had held the money given to Stauffer out to contribute towards an OF that can actually cover some ground. Hopefully they aren't done yet, but the 40 man is starting to look pretty full.
  21. whydidnt
    Not really confusing to me at all. How about spend more money, but also spend wiser, so you get more for what you spend. Sorry, but spending $10.5 million dollars on a 39 year old OF this year is not a wise investment, any more than re-signing Mike Pelfrey to a 2 year $12M dollar deal was last year. I am of the belief that not only aren't they spending enough, they often don't do a good job deciding who to pay. I don't want them to spend just to spend. I want them to make good baseball decisions, but not let money be the primary limiting factor to those decisions, which is what has happened for 3 straight off-seasons.
  22. whydidnt
    I couldn't agree more with the original post. The most frustrating thing to me is that the Twins have obviously pulled back from the supposed 52% of revenue number over the last few years and have just pocketed the money. We don't get to see the number's but with the new TV money, combined with the new stadium windfall, 52% of total revenue was likely somewhere north of $125M the last three years. Instead of investing that in the team, the owner's decided to keep it for themselves. That is certainly their right as owners. But counter to that, it's my right as a fan to vote with my own dollars, and chose to spend them on other forms of entertainment, which is what I have done over the last couple of years. My attendance at Twins games has dropped from a high of 23 games to 2 last year. Maybe if the Twins showed a little more willingness to put together a winning team, they wouldn't have to keep overpaying for middle of the road Free Agents and elite players would want to play here.
  23. whydidnt
    Actually, I disagree. I think there is a pretty strong correlation between high payroll teams and winning. Spending more doesn't guaranty that you will win the world series or even make the playoffs. However, it does give you a better chance at winning. That's not to say you HAVE to spend the most to win, but payroll is a factor. That's not to say, you spend just to spend, like the Phillies have seemed to do recently, just that to artificially limit what you spend in the market will likely make you worse than you could be. I can't seem to find the article, but there was one on Fangraph's or the Hardball Times a couple of years ago that showed that teams in the top 10 in spending were much more likely to make the playoffs than teams in the bottom 10. To me that's a strong correlation.
  24. whydidnt
    I get that, and Shields also benefited from playing in-front of KC's defense. Having said that, Shields K9 rate last year was still higher than Santana's was in each of the last 5 AL seasons of Santana's career. It's really hard to compare K rates between league, so I take Santana's rate last year with a grain of salt. Adding Pitchers to the opposing lineup does skew things. I agree WAR is a flawed statistic for measuring pitchers, but it still a good tool comparison puposes - bWAR over the last 4 years - Shields, 5.2, 2.7, 4.1 3.3 - Santana 3.0, -1.3, 2.9, 1.2. Shields has pretty consistently been worth about 2 wins per year more than Santana. At about 6-7 Million per win, it's easy to see why he's 6.5M more expensive per year than Ervin. My point isn't to trash Santana. I think this is what he earns on the open market, just that the Twins need to aim higher, and with better money management could.
  25. whydidnt
    The signing by itself is okay. Santana is an upgrade over the guys we've been running out there, but it should be noted, he hasn't been a model of consistency over his career, hopefully we won't end up with one of his bad years right off the bat like we did with Nolasco. Still,, I like him as a mid-rotation guy and there isn't anything wrong in the signing by itself. I still really don't like the way the Twins manage their budget to the bottom or middle. Think about this, what if the Twins signed Shields for 5-$100M,traded two low-level prospects for Brandon Moss (1- 7M estimated in arbitration), and didn't sign Hunter. For just 3 million more we would have a superior, consistent starter that you could even call a #1, and a comparable bat that can play the OF, even if it's just as well as Hunter. If you are concerned about the $3M, then don't tender Duensing, who is overpaid at as low-leverage leftie who can't get RH hitters out. To me this is just another example of Ryan not really taking advantage of his budgeted dollars. I know Shields hasn't signed yet, but I would expect that 5-100 will probably land him at this point. Who would you rather have Shields and Moss or Santana and Hunter? For me it's not even close. I expect both Sheilds and Moss to outperform the guys the Twins signed. When you operate on a fairly tight, limited budget, it's all about allocating those costs where you get the most bang for the buck, and this is the 3rd year in a row the Twins seems intent on doing just the opposite.
×
×
  • Create New...