Curt

The good thing about average players is that half the teams view them as an upgrade. [TABLE] [TD=width: 81][/TD] [TD=width: 43][/TD] [TD=width: 40][/TD] [TD=width: 43][/TD] [TD=width: 43][/TD] [TD=width: 38][/TD] [TD=width: 43][/TD] [TD=width: 37][/TD] [TD=width: 31][/TD] AL Split BA OBP SLG OPS GPA [/TD] SB CS as CF .272 .335 .434 .769 .259 11.4 3.8 Batting 1st .265 .329 .398 .727 .248 11.8 4.1 Span .270 .334 .375 .709 .244 [TD]9 3 [/TABLE]

Dozier is playing because he has potential. Casilla has spent most of his. That said, Casilla is still about one year younger than Carroll was when he got to the majors for the first time. I don't think Dozier is the long term solution at short but I don't really see another around the bend. I'm willing to let him try it the rest of this year and probably next. I would not be saying that if the Twins were truly contenders though. Sincerely, I hope Casilla is in this type of discussion somewhere in ten years. I think Casilla can play the Carroll roll for the Twins next year at 1/2 or 2/3 the price. I expect Carroll to be here and Casilla to be elsewhere though. I'm glad no one mentioned Hardy.

Mauer has a 1.003 OPS on the first pitch precisely because he is extremely selective with it. He is not taking the first pitch, he is looking for a certain pitch. When he gets it (or thinks he is getting it), he hits at a 1.003 OPS clip. When he has to expand his selectivity to protect the strike zone, like with two strikes, he hits at a .658 OPS clip. I don't know what the net effect on his stats would be, and we're not likely to find out, but that 1.003 would definitely go down (imo) if he swung at the first pitch more often.

Nice. I appreciate the review.

I was hoping the Twins would sign Kubel but I think he wanted out. He was a much better bargain than Cuddyer (maybe even better, straight up). Three years younger and cheaper, 2 years for $16M (or three for $22.5M) versus Cuddyer's 3 year $31.5M deal. Willingham, Revere and Doumit, as replacements, have worked out well (as much as anything can be said to have worked out well for a last place team).

I just looked up the Beloit Snappers' stats... They play an unusual defensive alignment. http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&cid=554&stn=true&sid=t554 Apparently Beloit has: 4 Shortstops that have played 202 games so far 3 Catchers that have played 105 games so far 2 Third Basement that have played 108 games so far 8 Outfielders (6 OF, 1 CF and 1 LF) that have played 396 games so far. No middle infielders in sight.

The matrix below shows the current standings, what those standings project for wins in 162 games and what the twins pace must be to match that win total. I do not think Chicago is a 90 win team and I believe 85 wins will win the division. The Twins will have to play .636 ball to get there though. Here's to hopin'. [TABLE] [TD=width: 86][/TD] [TD=width: 26, bgcolor: #E6E6FF]W[/TD] [TD=width: 26, bgcolor: #E6E6FF]L[/TD] [TD=width: 38, bgcolor: #E6E6FF]Pct[/TD] [TD=width: 41, bgcolor: #E6E6FF]Proj[/TD] [TD=width: 63, bgcolor: #E6E6FF]Twins pace to match[/TD] Chicago 47 38 .553 90 .701 Cleveland 44 41 .518 84 .623 Detroit 44 42 .512 83 .610 Kansas City 37 47 .440 71 .455 Minnesota 36 49 .424 69 .429 [/TABLE]

Cuddyer still likes Coors Field and Kubel likes Chase Field (I think those are the current names) even better. Neither is tearing it up on the road. [TABLE] [TD=width: 48]Jason Kubel[/TD] [TD=width: 32] [/TD] [TD=width: 32] [/TD] [TD=width: 32] [/TD] [TD=width: 32] [/TD] [TD=width: 32] [/TD] [TD=width: 32] [/TD] [TD=width: 32] [/TD] [TD=width: 32] [/TD] [TD=width: 32] [/TD] [TD=width: 32] [/TD] [TD=width: 32] [/TD] [TD=width: 32] [/TD] [TD=width: 40] [/TD] [TD=width: 40] [/TD] [TD=width: 40] [/TD] [TD=width: 40] [/TD] G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS Home 41 145 29 48 11 2 12 43 20 39 1 0 .331 .411 .683 1.093 Away 36 139 12 35 9 0 3 17 14 39 0 1 .252 .316 .381 .697 77 284 41 83 20 2 15 60 34 78 1 1 .292 .365 .535 .901 Michael Cuddyer G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS Home 43 152 33 43 13 1 7 29 16 33 4 0 .283 .351 .520 .871 Away 39 140 11 34 12 0 5 21 8 34 4 1 .243 .276 .436 .712 [/TD] [TD]82 292 44 77 25 1 12 50 24 67 8 1 .264 .316 .479 .795 [/TABLE]

The Twins have three pitchers named Cole in their system?

Right, the important point is where the fence is. As you have pointed out, that is the limiting factor. It is what defines the range to be covered. As the range increases (i.e. the fence is moved back), speed becomes more relevant and useful. If the field was symmetrical, there would be no difference (assuming the center fielder has equal range going left and right as he is another limiting factor in the range to be covered). Target Field is not symmetric. Left field is larger than right field. How often it becomes an issue is debatable but the fact that speed helps cover more area faster is not debatable, logically. This is why speed is always prized in center field as, in all parks, the fences are furthest in center field, meaning there is more area to be covered there.

Regarding fielding chances in left and right field... Using 2012 YTD data, about 70% of all plate appearances are against right-handed pitchers but the split on plate appearances by right-handed and left-handed batters is much closer, 53% to 47%. [TABLE] [TD=width: 86]Batter[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Pitcher[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Pct of PA[/TD] R R 33% L L 10% R L 20% L R 37% [/TABLE] If we assume that the ball is hit to the opposite field more often in lefty vs. lefty and righty vs. righty situations than when the pitcher and batters are opposite-handed, there would be much more opportunity for the opposite field to be right field (33% vs 10%).

Regarding the size of the field making a difference in the value of a fielder's range, look at the extremes. 1. Left field is a 3 x 3 foot square. Revere has no advantage over Willingham here because Willingham can get to any ball hit to left field in the same amount of time as Revere. Neither has to move. 2. Move the left-field fence out to six hundred feet. Willingham never gets off the bench because there will be two or three inside the park homers a game with him out there. Revere and other speedsters become much more valuable because he/they can cover the larger area in less time... perhaps only two or three inside the park homers a week. The cop whose beat is a couple of blocks can easily walk it. The highway patrolman is completely ineffective without a car.

the Angels aren't a losing team, so far, with a 46-38 record. That said, ... 1958 Chicago Cubs 72-82 5th place (out of eight) 1959 Chicago Cubs 74-80 5th place (out of eight) 1987 Chicago Cubs 76-85 6th place (out of six) Ernie Banks won consecutive MVPs and Andre Dawson won one with losing teams. There might be others. It is rare but can and does happen.

I use data provided by Sean Lahman downloaded into an Access database. He has other versions too. http://www.seanlahman.com/baseball-archive/statistics/

Don't laugh. I think Morneau should get his eyes checked. If his right eye has deteriorated, there might be a quick fix for this.

At one point, I was watching a Twins game and Bert said something about Jim Thome being most proud of his batting average. This struck me as odd because I always thought of Thome as a Harmon-like hitter and Harmon was often knocked for his low batting average. Being lazy, I didn't follow up... until now. Here are comparisons of Killebrew and Thome: [TABLE] [TD=width: 86, bgcolor: #C0C0C0] [/TD] [TD=width: 163, bgcolor: #C0C0C0, colspan: 4]Career[/TD] [TD=width: 21, bgcolor: #C0C0C0] [/TD] [TD=width: 168, bgcolor: #C0C0C0, colspan: 4]League Average[/TD] [TD=width: 21, bgcolor: #C0C0C0] [/TD] [TD=width: 251, bgcolor: #C0C0C0, colspan: 4]Percent of League Average[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #C0C0C0]Player[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #C0C0C0]BA[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #C0C0C0]OBP[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #C0C0C0]SA[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #C0C0C0]OPS[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #C0C0C0] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #C0C0C0]BA[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #C0C0C0]OBP[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #C0C0C0]SA[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #C0C0C0]OPS[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #C0C0C0] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #C0C0C0]BA[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #C0C0C0]SA[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #C0C0C0]OBP[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #C0C0C0]OPS[/TD] Killebrew .256 .376 .509 .884 .248 .318 .374 .692 103.16% 135.93% 118.26% 127.82% Thome .277 .403 .556 .959 .268 .338 .426 .764 103.16% 130.46% 119.21% 125.48% [/TABLE] We see that Thome has much more impressive slash numbers across the board. However Harmon played during a much more pitcher dominant era. Once normalized for the differences, they are remarkably similar. In fact, their batting averages are identically 3.16% above average.

The reasons why Revere is better suited for LF rather than RF are two-fold. As noted, in LF, his arm would be less of a liability on throws to third and, also, since LF at Target Field is larger than RF, his range would be more of an asset there. I agree that, in both of those cases, the differences are not very consequential but they are there. You do have to factor in that Willingham would have to play right and doesn't want to. It seems like it would be do-able for him to transition there but might not be worth it if he plays worse there than he does in left.

Historically, most really good players are ready for major league competition early on. Middle-of-the-pack players often benefit from longer development and a stint at AAA. AAA used to be stocked with just those middle-of-the-pack prospects and a few washed-up or soon-to-be washed-up vets. AAA was the very definition of replacement level talent. Not sure how much has changed though fewer vets seem to stock the AAA teams (maybe due to higher earning levels) nowadays. There is, usually, nothing to be learned at AAA for players destined to star. What they need to learn can only be got at the major league level. I'm not sure about other teams but we don't see a lot of players jumping to the majors from A an AA with the Twins any longer. Maybe its a philosophy or maybe it is merely a reflection of the talent in the organization. Either way I don't think it is a good sign.

5. Free agents Willingham, Doumit and Carroll carrying their weight (and possibly then some).

4. Mauer is back to form... though... (A) He doesn't hit enough home runs ( He isn't catching enough © He doesn't pal around with the media hacks (D) He isn't writing checks back to the Twins (E) All of the above

[TABLE] [TD=width: 112]Batting[/TD] [TD=width: 39]G [/TD] [TD=width: 39]AB [/TD] [TD=width: 39]R [/TD] [TD=width: 39]H [/TD] [TD=width: 39]2B [/TD] [TD=width: 39]3B [/TD] [TD=width: 39]HR [/TD] [TD=width: 39]RBI [/TD] [TD=width: 39]BB [/TD] [TD=width: 39]K [/TD] [TD=width: 39]SB [/TD] [TD=width: 39]CS [/TD] [TD=width: 39]AVG [/TD] [TD=width: 39]OBP [/TD] [TD=width: 39]SLG [/TD] [TD=width: 39]OPS[/TD] Danny Valencia 27 100 9 19 5 1 1 11 2 23 0 1 .190 .204 .290 .494 Chris Parmelee 37 100 8 19 5 1 1 4 9 26 0 0 .190 .277 .290 .567 [/TABLE]

What I found interesting was Dick and Bert discussing it on the telecast this weekend. As I perceive them as mouthpieces for the organization (knowingly or not), I conclude the team is actively shopping Span. D & B discussing it is preparing the fans for the inevitable.

Everyone does realize that Puck signed a three year deal for $9 million, he was the most expensive player in history at that point. Mauer not.

I just realized that if pepperoni pizza cost $23 million I would probably never have it again.

This just in... in other news... pepperoni pizza is better than sausage pizza.