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Curt

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Everything posted by Curt

  1. You absolutely hate league adjusted numbers? They are not meant to harm your children or take money out of your pocket. They are meant to provide perspective. A little perspective, for instance... in 1930, 44 players qualified for the batting championship in the National League. 33 of those hit .303 or higher. The average BA among those 44 was .325. In 1968, the AL league batting average was .230. Only one player hit over .300... Carl Yastrzemski hit .301 to win the title. Surely, you are not arguing that the 33 guys who hit over .303 in the National League in 1930 were better than Yaz, Oliva, and every other player in the 1968 American League? Tony Oliva and Carl Yastrzemski were every bit as good as the best players from both 1930 and 2012. You would never know it from their stat lines though. Unless you look a little deeper than the surface. As for your statement that any player of that era suddenly looks amazing, well, those that were amazing in their day look amazing. Those that were mediocre still look mediocre... only by today's standards rather than 1968's. Making these adjustments didn't suddenly make Oliva look like he won the batting title every year. His rank for each year is, imo, remarkably stable with the differences being accounted for by individual performances such as Ichiro hitting .372 in 2004, eclipsing Tony's batting title season of 1964. There is no perfect way to compare eras but ignoring the differences is not an option.
  2. If we adjust simply for league averages, here is Tony's batting average if he played 2004-2011: [TABLE] [TD=align: right]Year[/TD] [TD=align: right]Rank[/TD] [TD=width: 49, align: right]BA[/TD] [TD=width: 49, align: right]Pts[/TD] [TD=width: 27, align: right] [/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: right]Year[/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: right]Rank[/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: right]Adj BA[/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: right]Pts[/TD] [TD=width: 35, align: right] [/TD] [TD=width: 86, align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right]1964[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right].323[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right]2004[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right].353[/TD] [TD=align: right]-19[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right].247/.270[/TD] [TD=align: right]1965[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right].321[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right]2005[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right].355[/TD] [TD=align: right]24[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right].242/.268[/TD] [TD=align: right]1966[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right].307[/TD] [TD=align: right]-9[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right]2006[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right].351[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right].240/.275[/TD] [TD=align: right]1967[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right].289[/TD] [TD=align: right]-37[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right]2007[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right].332[/TD] [TD=align: right]-31[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right].236/.271[/TD] [TD=align: right]1968[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right].289[/TD] [TD=align: right]-12[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right]2008[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right].336[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right].230/.268[/TD] [TD=align: right]1969[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right].309[/TD] [TD=align: right]-23[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right]2009[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right].335[/TD] [TD=align: right]-30[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right].246/.267[/TD] [TD=align: right]1970[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right].325[/TD] [TD=align: right]-4[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right]2010[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right].338[/TD] [TD=align: right]-21[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right].250/.260[/TD] [TD=align: right]1971[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right].337[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right]2011[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right].352[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right].247/.258[/TD] [TD=align: right]Total[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right].313[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right].344[/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [/TABLE] Note that he would have won 4 batting titles instead of 3, taking 2 away from Mauer. What do these numbers scream?
  3. Slama only gets guys out but he doesn't look good doing it? I thought we stopped thinking like that since Brad Pitt won twenty games in a row. It's not like Slama would be taking a job away from a real major-leaguer or might cost the Twins a title. Give him a shot. Let him succeed or fail. At least let him enjoy ML per diem for a while. I don't get the hostility toward him.
  4. Love that. Thanks for posting. I really liked that guy. I just wish he could hit.
  5. Thanks for the article Nick. I agree with you. As far as Slama goes, what does a guy have to do? What kind of signal does it send to others in the organization? That results do not matter? I don't know if Slama would succeed at the top level but he has earned a shot. When I think of all the deadbeats (nice guys... family men, I'm sure) we have seen, I just do not get it. Not giving Slama a change at the MLB level is an unfathomable oversight.
  6. I'm in too. Am I too late?
  7. I was hoping your first response (saying it was surprising that the formula didn't take that into account) was kind of sarcastic . Maybe it was. That you have had to go back to it because it didn't sink in is kind of amusing to me. And kind of sad. I'm not really surprised that presenting actual facts has been virtually unacknowledged, though. What?
  8. From baseball-reference.com: To compute a player's Positional adjustment Runs, we add together for each non-pitching position: Position multiplier (from above) × innings played at position / 1,350 Innings. For players who are only pitchers this is Pitcher Positional Adjustment (from below) × (PA/4) / 150. It looks to me like the positional adjustments are proportional to the amount of time played at each position. Baseball Reference has his WAR at 2.6, not 3.8. FanGraphs does a similar apportionment: The position adjustments are then scaled to match the games played at each position for a particular player. This way, players that spend time at multiple positions get a hybrid adjustment based on their playing time at the respective spots.
  9. From baseball-reference.com: To compute a player's Positional adjustment Runs, we add together for each non-pitching position: Position multiplier (from above) × innings played at position / 1,350 Innings. For players who are only pitchers this is Pitcher Positional Adjustment (from below) × (PA/4) / 150. It looks to me like the positional adjustments are proportional to the amount of time played at each position.
  10. Do the folks who created WAR know about this? They seem to be a pretty detail-oriented bunch. It amazes me that something like this should slip by them.
  11. The Twins will pay that. $8.5 M would cover Rochester's payroll for twenty years.
  12. Maybe everyone but me knows this but... looking up "outrighting"... A player can be outrighted, without his permission, only once. A player with five years major league experience cannot be outrighted, regardless whether he as been previously outrighted, without his permission. According to Baseball-Reference, Blackburn debuted 9/3/2007 which would be just under the wire. He did get demoted for a while in 2010 which would subtract from that too, I think. If he had five years experience, he would have to be released (if he did not give his permission).
  13. http://mikespickz.com/mlb-sweep-tracker-2011-season/ I guess someone does track that. 10 this year puts the Twins pretty much on last year's pace of 13.
  14. It sure seems like the Twins have been swept a lot this year. They have been swept 10 times, including 6 times at home. They have also swept 3 series, 2 at home. I don't imagine anyone keeps these kind of records, do they? Sweeps lost: April 0-3 @Bal 0-3 Tex 0-3 Bos May 0-3 @LAA 0-2 Cle 0-3 Det July 0-3 Oak 0-3 @CHW Aug 0-3 TBR 0-3 @Sea Sweeps won: May 2-0 @Det 3-0 Oak July 3-0 Cle
  15. Let's be clear: Great American Ballpark is named for Great American Insurance Company which bought the naming rights. When they change advertising agencies, it could be re-named Plastic Trader Recycling Field.
  16. I would not call Dozier's season a disaster but he has played poorly. He certainly has not played well enough to warrant a starting position in the major leagues or even a roster spot and it makes sense to give someone else a shot. I'm glad he got a chance and I hoped he would succeed. I still would like that. If Dozier has what it takes, he'll be back. He might just stick then. If the Twins have anyone in their org who will lock onto the starting shortstop position and hold it they are doing a good job of keeping it a secret. The Twins are not punishing Dozier. It's tough to earn a major league job and the competition for it should be fierce.
  17. Willingham is still on pace for over 40 homers. He has reached 30 in 116 team games. That is the eighth fastest pace in Twins' history. He is the twelfth Twins player to reach 30 in one season (24 times total). [TABLE] [TD=width: 63]Game #[/TD] [TD=width: 49]Year[/TD] [TD=width: 79]Player[/TD] [TD=width: 80]Pace @ 30[/TD] [TD=width: 56]Final[/TD] 81 1964 Killebrew 60 49 91 1970 Killebrew 53 41 95 1961 Killebrew 51 46 98 1967 Killebrew 50 44 102 1969 Killebrew 48 49 113 1962 Killebrew 43 48 113 2006 Morneau 43 34 [TD=bgcolor: #FFFF00]116[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFF00]2012[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFF00]Willingham[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFF00]42[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E6FF00]??[/TD] 118 1987 Hrbek 41 34 131 1963 Killebrew 37 45 132 1966 Killebrew 37 39 133 1963 Allison 37 35 137 1964 Oliva 35 32 139 1986 Gaetti 35 34 139 2009 Morneau 35 30 140 1964 Allison 35 32 144 1984 Brunansky 34 32 145 1963 Hall 34 33 147 2007 Morneau 33 31 148 1987 Brunansky 33 32 149 1987 Gaetti 33 31 153 2009 Cuddyer 32 32 156 2006 Hunter 31 31 157 1986 Puckett 31 31 [/TABLE]
  18. What strikes me is the cost of selling the name. The teams lose brand value. The Yankees will never sell naming rights to Yankee Stadium because it would lessen their own brand. Non-team name fields names can have brand power: note Fenway, Wrigley and, even, Camden Yards. You will not get that with corporate-purchased names because they will change when a new advertiser is found or the company is bought or merges with another. I think this name-selling will go away as teams realize this. It will be like the multi-purpose, artificial-turf, cookie-cutter stadiums of the 60's and 70's. They seemed like a good idea at the time but were completely ridiculous a generation later.
  19. Curt

    More Trout

    Since 1939, only once has a player had more runs scored that games played. In 1985, Rickey Henderson scored 146 runs in 143 games played for the Yankees. This year, Mike Trout has scored 88 runs in 90 games played. He got off to a slow start, scoring only one in his first six games. He has 87 runs scored in last 84 games.
  20. Maybe all parks should be above average.
  21. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_Production_Average Gross Production Average or GPA is a baseball statistic created in 2003 by Aaron Gleeman, as a refinement of On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS). GPA attempts to solve two frequently cited problems with OPS. First, OPS gives equal weight to its two components, On Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (SLG). In fact, OBP contributes significantly more to scoring runs than SLG does. Sabermetricians have calculated that OBP is about 80% more valuable than SLG... Unlike OPS, this formula both gives proper relative weight to its two component statistics...
  22. Nice. That site lists the park's capacity at 8,100. This article says average attendance the past two years were over 9,200. SRO every night? Or has the park been expanded?
  23. Reserving the "special place" for Ron Davis... Nishi is completely over-matched and out of his element. It is hard to even imagine the events that led to him appearing in a major league uniform. And now he is getting a second chance? This experiment must end.
  24. There are plenty of worse players than Ron Davis, but they are not showcased in high leverage situations and they come and go quickly. If you give points for longevity and the depth of misery caused it has to be RD. He deserves a special place. I'm not an RD hater. Even at the time, I really felt bad for him. He gave it his all every time out but he should not have been closer and there he was for four and one half years. The Twins only contended one of those years, 1984, and RD was a major reason why they did not win the division that year. The RD era is the closest I ever came to understanding what it is like to be a Cubs fan. I will never understand the Twins' commitment to Ron Davis. It was eerie.
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