SF Twins Fan

SO yet again  Baldelli pinch hits  for the lead off batter and the#2 batter in the 5th inning!!!????
 
you have your starting lineup for 4 out of 9 innings.
you pinch hit a guy hitting under .200 and an OPS under .500 for your leadoff guy, and you pinch  another guy under .200 BA and under .500 OPS for a guy hitting .354 &.928!!
 
Thsi SHi....  This CRA....  This STUFF  has to stop!!!!

Wow, what a season. Although it didn’t end the way Twins Territory wanted it to, it was undoubtedly a success. As recent as the second half, this team was flirting with a .500 record, and at multiple times dipped below it. If in March I were to tell you that Byron Buxton AND Carlos Correa were below average hitters for the regular season, you would have thought it was a trainwreck. But with the emergence of players such as Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and even Spring Training non-roster invitee Willi Castro, it made it an enjoyable season of baseball to watch for fans. That does not even mention Ryan Jeffers breaking out, and the second half Max Kepler had, when it seemed his days of baseball in Minneapolis were over. The streak was finally broken, and now we won’t have to grimace every time somebody mentions a once-active 0-18 playoff streak dating back to 2004 (before I was even born). No matter what anyone says, it was a successful season of Twins Baseball in 2023, and I will leave it at that. With that being said, now we look forward to Twins baseball in 2024, and I decided to create a guide to help navigate the offseason. I have compiled dates, roster information, and hopefully everything you will need to get a better idea of what this offseason will bring. I hope you enjoy!
Free Agents
Sonny Gray
Kenta Maeda
Emilio Pagan
Donovan Solano
Tyler Mahle
Michael A Taylor
Joey Gallo
Dallas Keuchel
40 Man Roster (Doesn’t account for any transactions that will inevitably happen, 38 spots full)
Pitchers (21 spots)
Jorge Alcala
Jordan Balazovic
Matt Canterino
Jose De Leon
Jhoan Duran
Kody Funderburk
Brent Headrick
Ronny Henriquez
Griffin Jax
Pablo Lopez
Jovani Moran
Bailey Ober
Oliver Ortega
Chris Paddack
Joe Ryan
Cole Sands
Brock Stewart
Caleb Thielbar
Louie Varland
Josh Winder
Simeon Woods-Richardson
Hitters
Ryan Jeffers
Christian Vazquez
Carlos Correa 
Kyle Farmer
Edouard Julien
Royce Lewis
Jose Miranda
Jorge Polanco
Willi Castro
Nick Gordon
Max Kepler
Alex Kirilloff
Trevor Larnach
Jordan Luplow
Andrew Stevenson
Matt Wallner
Byron Buxton
Timeline (*Explained Below)
Oct 27-Nov 4: World Series*
5 Days After Conclusion of World Series: League Wide Free Agency Begins* (Player/Team Options Due)* (Qualifying Offer also due)*
Nov 7-9: GM Meetings*
Nov 15: Rule 5 Protection Deadline*, Qualifying Offer Decision Deadline*
Nov 17: Non-Tender Deadline*
Dec 3-6: Winter Meetings*
Dec 5: MLB Draft Lottery*
Dec 6: Rule 5 Draft*
January 2024: BBWAA Hall of Fame Announcement*
Jan 12: Arbitration Agreement Deadline*
Jan 29-Feb 16: Arbitration Hearings*
Feb 14: Pitchers and Catchers Report
Feb 23: Spring Training Game vs. Gophers
Feb 24: First Real Spring Training Game vs. Pirates
Mar 28: Opening Day @Kansas City Royals
World Series - The end of the World Series officially signifies the long offseason starting. The 2024 World Series Game 1 is scheduled for October 27, whereas Game 7 is scheduled for November 4.
Free Agency - Free Agency technically begins the day after the World Series, however, that just is when only the team they are departing from can contact their own free agents. League-wide free agency starts five days after the final game of the World Series, which could be as soon as November 5, or as late as November 9. Team and Player Options are due before league wide free agency starts.
Qualifying Offers - Qualifying Offers must be made within the 5 day window after the World Series ends. This year the qualifying offer is slated to be just over $20 Million. The only one of the 8 departing free agents from the Twins who will likely receive a QO will be Sonny Gray, and he will most likely decline by the November 15 deadline at 3:00 PM CT. It seems that Sonny Gray will sign elsewhere, which will gain the Twins a draft pick. If Sonny signs elsewhere for $50+ Million, the Twins receive a 2024 draft pick right before Competitive Balance Round A (Right after 1st round,) If less than $50 Million, it would be right after Competitive Balance Round B, which is after the 2nd round.
GM Meetings - Typically not much happens here. Just a meeting to explore possible offseason scenarios for General Managers and set framework up for the winter.
Rule 5 Protection - Teams must protect players who signed at age 18 or younger within 5 seasons and players who signed at age 19 or older within 4 seasons. Some Twins prospects who fit that bill and will at least be considered to be added are Jair Camargo, Yunior Severino, Chris Williams, Austin Martin, Dashawn Keirsey, Michael Helman, Anthony Prato, Blayne Enlow, and maybe a few more. Players who are not protected can be chosen by other organizations during the Rule 5 Draft on December 6 for a $100k fee. Players selected must be kept on MLB active roster for the whole season or the MLB IL when it opens up during spring training. Otherwise, if they are DFA’d and clear waivers they must be offered back to their original team for $50k.
Non Tender Deadline/Arbitration - Players with between 3 and 6 years of MLB service time qualify for arbitration. It is a system for players to present themselves and try to be compensated for what they believe to be fair for their play. If a team doesn’t believe that a player is worth their projected arbitration amount, they can choose not to offer them a contract, or “non-tender” them. Said player then becomes a free agent and available to sign with any team after the November 17 deadline. If the team does decide to offer the player a contract before the deadline, they agree to go through a process called arbitration. The teams and the player are free to negotiate a contract all the way until the January 12 deadline. If no agreement is reached, they have to go through the MLB to an Arbitrator. Both sides submit their desired pay figures and the arbitrator uses previous play and other information to decide which figure is more fair. The player is then paid that figure for the year and no more negotiation is had. This can hurt the relationship between the player and the organization, see Corbin Burnes and the Brewers in 2023.
Arbitration Eligible Twins (Expected $ in parentheses)
Caleb Thielbar ($3M)
Kyle Farmer ($6.6M)
Jordan Luplow ($1.6M)
Willi Castro ($3.2M)
Jorge Alcala ($1M)
Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M)
Jose De Leon ($740K)
Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M)
Nick Gordon ($1M)
Non Tender Candidates - Farmer, Luplow, Alcala, De Leon
Winter Meetings - Multiple representatives from each team/organization gather for 4 days of meetings, which is happening this year in Nashville, Tennessee. Here is moreso where trades and signings are discussed between players, teams, and agents. Just as recent as last year, the Winter Meetings have had breaking news when Aaron Judge signed his 9 year, $360 Million megadeal to stay with the Yankees. If you are hoping for breaking MLB news during this offseason, this is the week to expect it to come from.=
BBWAA Hall of Fame Announcement - Typically this is not a huge deal for Twins fans. Recently Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva were inducted to the MLB Hall of Fame, but they were through a different committee. This year is different, Minnesota Twins great Joe Mauer is going to be on the ballot for the first time. Although he may not make it in on the first try, this has been a day Minnesotans have been waiting for for a long time. Other former Twins on the ballot include Torii Hunter, and more infamously Bartolo Colon.
MLB Draft Lottery - In 2023, the Twins infamously jumped up the draft board to pick #5 during the lottery and in July selected Walker Jenkins. This year will not be quite as exciting, only teams who missed the playoffs qualify for the lottery. With the playoff run they had, the Twins will be selecting around pick #25 during the MLB Draft in July.
If you made it all the way through, thank you for reading. I hope you enjoyed and at least learned something. To compilate all of this data took quite a while so any feedback would be appreciated. This was the first article I’ve written in a while so it is very possible I was a bit rusty. If you have any questions leave a comment and I will try my best to clarify/answer. Happy offseason and GO TWINS!!!

Swinging hard in baseball was invented by Mel Gibson in 2001 for the movie “Signs.” From that point forward, hitters kept swinging harder while in many cases adding steroids to the mix, resulting in more power across the league. Guys who were teetering on the brink of being labeled “Quad-A Guys,” suddenly realized if they could add 20 home run power to their repertoire, they could cover up all their other glaring flaws. In 2019, a juiced ball turbocharged this trend and not coincidentally that year’s Twins team set the all-time team home run record, featuring big contributions from previously unexciting players like CJ Cron, Max Kepler, Jonathan Schoop and Mitch Garver. After a 101 win season and the surprising addition of Josh Donaldson, the future seemed bright for the Twins lineup. Instead, the team has taken steps backward and now looks as dysfunctional as ever offensively, despite the track record of their hitters being quite good on paper. What happened?
To start, the Twins aren’t the only team with a lot of names in their lineup and not a lot of runs on the board. Many teams who employ a multitude of high power hitters with great backsides to their baseball cards, are finding that their performance is suffering. The Yankees have a decent record, but the vibe around them is not positive, with their hitting underwhelming despite employing many successful sluggers like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres. The Padres are at the bottom of the league in offense despite boasting four potential MVP candidates in their lineup, most of whom can do more than just slug. The Mets are struggling mightily despite Pete Alonso pacing the sport in homers, Francisco Lindor hitting the ball as hard as ever, and Francisco Alvarez breaking through offensively.
The issue is how hard the guys are swinging. And no I’m not saying that swinging a bat is putting undue strain on these precious hitters. I’m saying you need a mix of efforts in terms of swing speed/length of swing, and the Twins have too many guys selling out for power, especially in key situations that require a base hit. I’ve categorized it that there are three types of hitters based on how hard they swing:
Knock-getters: Think Luis Arraez, Rod Carew, and maybe Royce Lewis (more on that later). They’ll take a few rips to keep pitchers honest but really they're just trying to get a hit somehow.
Slashers: Think Yuli Gurriel or Paul O’Neil. They’ll run into plenty of homers, but mainly they are just trying to get the barrel on the ball. My theory is that medium swingers go into the biggest slumps, perhaps due to oscillations in what “medium swinging” means for a hitter, but can often spark a team in the postseason.
Boppers: Think Joey Gallo or Jim Thome. They want to lift at all times, and swing as hard as they reasonably can. The most rigid approach, and most dependent on mistakes. It also includes most of the current Twins lineup.
It may seem like I am denigrating the power guys like any old baseball analyst from the 1930’s, but what I’m really saying is you can’t have too many of the same type of hitter on your team. As the Padres have shown, you can have four .900 OPS guys in your lineup and still struggle to score. If all you have is knock-getters you end up like the Cleveland Guardians, which isn’t very effective, either. It would seem that a team made up of slashers, or medium swingers, would be great, but I swear they’re streakier, and not always the best defenders.
But a team full of boppers has all the makings of a heartbreaking team. They are scary to face as a pitcher, but importantly, they can be pitched to. For instance, any pitcher knows the game plan on how to get Joey Gallo out: high fastballs and breaking balls below the zone. If you execute that plan Gallo almost certainly will not hurt you; at worst you’ll walk him. A knock-getter, by contrast, can take a pitch you executed well and plop it the other way for a single. Not always, but at a far higher success rate than Gallo just accepting his fate with two strikes. Logically, a shorter, easier swing is easier to control, less deceived by velocity, and easier to pull back on if the pitch is a ball. I don’t think you’ll find a hitter who disagrees with that.
And admit it, when Joey Gallo or Byron Buxton come to the plate with a man on second and two outs down a run, it burns you up because you know you would rather have Christian Vazquez hit in that situation, despite his poor overall numbers.
It’s like a really physical basketball team with an elite big man. You can counter that team by putting a bunch of quick shooters all around the perimeter and forcing the big to come out and defend, negating his overall impact. He’s still really good, yet his existence is hurting the team.
Or it's like a golfer who hits it further than anyone else but is playing a course with tiny fairways and deep rough. He has less margin for error than shorter hitters and his advantage is turned into a weakness.
Or a male pickup artist looking to meet women at a lesbian bar.
From a baseball strategy standpoint too, having a bunch of slower/shorter-swinging guys can make the opposing pitcher less of a factor. And if you’re facing Gerrit Cole or Shohei Ohtani with your season on the line, you want them to matter as little as possible. Elite pitchers, the kind you often see in the postseason, probably won’t make many mistakes during a game. The beautiful part is, if you’re a good knock-getter, you don’t need them to make any mistakes. You’ve accepted you can’t get a homer without several stars aligning, so you try to guess a location and punch the ball through somewhere. You can’t win the war with one swing, but you can pile up wins in individual battles and accomplish the same thing. That is still hard to do, but not as hard as trying to homer off of an elite pitcher who isn’t making mistakes.
After Sunday’s game, Royce Lewis was interviewed and he mentioned that the Tigers approach to Twins’ hitters was to exploit that they were waiting for a mistake. He also said he personally went against that approach by selling out for contact during the game, during which he collected three singles. That was eye-opening because it confirmed what a lot of us fans have witnessed during the Falvey/Baldelli era: Swinging for the fences regardless of situation and hoping for a mistake pitch, resulting in failing to score in too many innings, and falling short offensively even if the total season output was highly ranked.
On that note, the Firejoemorgan.com site of the early aughts was a favorite of mine, and one of Morgan’s most mocked beliefs was that sometimes home run hitters could be selfish. “What a load,” we said, “as if hitting a home run was something to be shamed for when it is statistically the best thing you can do as a hitter.”
Except most of the time guys try to hit home runs, they don’t. The best home run hitters get a dinger every ten to twelve at-bats, a hugely valuable ratio, no doubt. But it’s easier to make contact if you’re just trying to get a knock, and if that’s what the situation dictates, then yes, trying to hit a home run is selfish, because of the home runs you don’t hit.
If you know that a given pitcher is going to start you with a breaking ball outside, and you have the ability to poke a ball the other way, it is your job to ambush that pitcher and get a knock. Good pitchers give up home runs, but good pitches don’t (unless the hitter guesses perfectly), and that’s an important distinction. Sometimes you don’t get the cement mixer breaking ball of your dreams, and already this year, we have seen the reverse approach work against the best of the Twins’ excellent rotation: Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober have all been victimized by bloop hits and squibbers the other way, often off of good pitches, and those hits have led to key losses against division rivals Cleveland and Detroit, not to mention the Angels, Red Sox, and Rays.
Getting rid of Luis Arraez is then so much more of a blunder by the Twins. He wasn’t just a knock-getter, he was the knock-getter, and the Twins haven’t really had anybody else in recent years who could grind at-bats and was willing to sacrifice almost all his potential power for base hits like Arraez. Lewis has shown this ability at times, notably against Ryan Pressly of the Astros the day he was called up, also mentioning after Sunday’s win that he was trying to channel his “inner-Arraez.”
Which brings me to Austin Martin. He recently returned to action after missing three weeks following a collision in one of his first games back from a sprained UCL in his elbow. That's a real shame because Martin is an up and coming knock-getter, and to hear him tell it, his failed experiment with adding power to his profile in 2022 just made him more committed to selling out for base hits and getting on base no matter what. Putting him in left field, if he’s healthy enough to play, might be the best recreation of Arraez the Twins can do at this point. And they’ll need him if what Lewis says about the hitting approach is true.
If the team is truly gameplanning, or being gameplanned against, by virtue of its hitters trying to stay in at-bats until the pitcher makes a mistake, that’s a problem. It also matches the eye-test of watching this team. Sometimes pitchers don’t make mistakes, and sometimes when they do, you miss them (we’ve seen plenty of that). Whoever is advocating for that approach is stuck in 2019 and though Lewis surely didn’t mean to stir the pot with his comment, his saying it gives me hope that he may inspire others on the team to follow his lead and sell out for contact when appropriate. The vanishing act this offense has shown since the 2019 postseason is no longer a coincidence, it's a trait, and their league-high strikeout rate confirms it. Furthermore, against better pitching overall, with less power and a less juicy ball, that trait is dooming this team to fail despite an incredible (for the Twins) pitching staff. Gallo and Buxton will continue to swing away no matter what, but everyone else needs to realize what’s been right in front of them (by watching their opposition), and to give up a little power for contact. Not always, just when it matters.
 
 

Full transparency: This is not a team intending to compete in 2022.  This team is loading up for 2023.
Trades and Extensions:
Sign Byron Buxton to a 7 year, 119M contract with incentives
Trade with Florida Marlins - Mitch Garver for SP Sixto Sanchez 
Trade with New York Mets - Josh Donaldson (plus 14M spread over two years) for RP Jose Butto
Let Colome walk.  Release Austidillo, Refsnyder, Minaya, and Cave.
Free Agency: 
Sign Corey Seager a 5 year 27M contract to play shortstop
Sign Michael Pineda back to a 2 year 24M contract with incentives
Sign Jon Gray to a 3 year 45M contract
Sign Sandy Leon to a 1 year, 2M contract
Sign Leury Garcia to a 1 year 5M contract
Sign Corey Knebel to a 3 year 24M contract
Sign Ehire Adrianza to a 2 year, 3M contract
Lineup/Defense
C - Jeffers  500k
1B - Kiriloff  500k
2B - Polanco 5.5M
SS - Seager 27M
3B - Arraez 2M
LF - Rooker 500k
CF - Buxton 17M
RF - Kepler 6.75M
DH - Sano 9.25M
Bench - Gordon 500k
Bench - Sandy Leon 2M
Bench - Leury Garcia 5M
Bench - Garlick or Larnach 500k
Bench - Adrianza 1.5M
Regular Lineup - Arraez-Buxton-Seager-Polanco-Kiriloff-Sano-Kepler-Rooker-Jeffers
Rotation/Bullpen
SP - Gray 15M
SP - Ryan 500k 
SP - Ober 500k
SP - Pineda 12M
SP - Sixto Sanchez 500k
CL - Rogers 6.7M
BP - Alcala 500k
BP - Duffey 3.7M
BP - Theilbar 1.2M
BP - Knebel 8M
BP - Dobnak 800k
BP - Gant 3.7
Total Salary: 138.6M  (Including the 7M deferred)
Rotation Depth: Gant, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Balazovic, Winder, Duran, SWR 
Bullpen Depth: Butto, Thorpe, Moran, Stashak, Strotman? Other assorted AA and AAA guys
OF Depth: Larnach needs to hit himself into a job. Marten should be a guy looking to get the job in LF.  As soon as mid-summer.  Almost the entire bench, plus Kiriloff and Arraez can also play in the OF.  
IF Depth - Adrianza is a jack of all trades, Gordon as well.  Being a lefty and a switch hitter gives some options for lineups.  Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda should be in this conversation mid-summer as well.
Catching depth: Leon exists to give Ben Rotrevedt time to be the long-term backup.  
 
The idea here is that 2022 is a transition year.  So, let Rooker/Larnach and Jeffers and Arraez play. Martin is going to take 2B or LF eventually.  Lewis and Miranda are going to be up to take over other positions eventually.  The team is strong up the middle, depth is better, and the team is primed for a 2023 coming out party.  Ditto the rotation - Gallen, Sanchez, Ryan, Ober, and the fleet of young arms gives this team options and upside.  Bullpen is stabilized.
 
By September 1 I’d love to see this group:  Seager-Buxton-Polanco-Kiriloff--Marten-Larnach-Miranda-Kepler-Jeffers  with a rotation of Gray-Ryan-Ober-Sanchez-Duran/Balazovic  That group is an upgrade here or there in 2023 from being a real force if we develop our talented youngsters.
 
 
 

The Winter Meetings in San Diego have come to a close and the Minnesota Twins have all sights set on the 2020 Major League Baseball season. Rocco Baldelli is looking to repeat an extraordinary 2019 performance, and the big-league club looks to remain one of the best in the majors.
 
As the reigning AL Central Division champions, the Twins now have teams gunning for them, and while the offseason still must incorporate significant talent acquisition, getting contributions from a deep and loaded farm system is something to be expected.
 
My top 15 prospects were last updated back in June at the midway point of the season; you can find those here. Going back over rankings, here is the full history.
 
2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2019 Top 15 Prospects
 
15. Nick Gordon INF
 
Gordon followed the same narrative he has employed most of his minor league career. Year two at Triple-A was significantly better than the first season, but the ceiling looks relatively muted at this point. He’s a contact hitter with average defensive ability and good speed. There are some question marks on passion, but talent remains enough for him to be a big league regular.
 
14. Matt Canterino RHP
 
After being taken in the 2nd round of the 2019 draft Canterino quickly established himself in pro ball. He skipped over Elizabethton and turned in five nice starts at Low-A. He’s got strikeout stuff, and while the delivery is somewhat quirky, it showed well in his debut. We’ll need to find out what tweaks are necessary as he rises through the system, but this looks like a middle of the rotation arm.
 
13. Wander Javier SS
 
No one had more anticipation leading up to 2019 than Javier. After missing all the 2018 season, he finally had a clean bill of health. Now with the year in the rear view, it’s hard not to suggest health was the only positive development. Playing 80 games at Cedar Rapids, Javier posted just a .601 OPS and put up a 116/35 K/BB. He’s got all the talent to be a top 20 prospect in baseball, but he needs a turnaround in 2020 badly.
 
12. Matt Wallner OF
 
A big arm but drafted for his bat, Wallner showed out in his first year of pro ball. He posted an .813 OPS at Elizabethton and swatted six homers. His time in Cedar Rapids didn’t include gaudy numbers, but it was brief only getting in 12 games. Owning somewhat of a similar profile to fellow prospect Brent Rooker, Wallner should be able to use his athleticism to continue producing at higher levels.
 
11. Keoni Cavaco SS
 
Minnesota grabbed Cavaco with the 13th overall pick and sense him to the GCL. Freshly out of high school, the 18-year-old didn’t get off too much of a hot start. That said, he ascended draft boards due to strong national showings, and his tools all jump off the page. The most important thing that took place for him this year was simply getting engrained into the pro ball schedule.
 
10. Ryan Jeffers C
 
If there’s something the Twins did at the highest level last year, it was develop catchers. Jeffers took another step forwards behind the dish, and his bat continues to be an asset. He was promoted to Double-A down the stretch and generated an .856 OPS. Possessing true home run power as well as a growing ability as a defender, he’s asserted himself as the best catching prospect in the system.
 
9. Blayne Enlow RHP
 
Things just continue to trend upwards for the Louisiana native. He made it to High-A Fort Myers and posted a 3.38 ERA across 69.1 IP. The hope would be that strikeouts would continue to rise with the walks seeing some decrease. He’s still working on pitching, honing in command, and being able to do more than simply put the ball behind opposing hitters. There’s a ton of talent here and he’s a hard enough worker to harness it all.
 
8. Lewis Thorpe LHP
 
Thorpe’s big-league debut came as a contributor to the Twins division title. Although he posted a gaudy 6.18 ERA, it was backed by a 3.47 FIP and was a result of one blow up start against the Indians. He was great in relief and posted a strong 10.1 K/9. He should be still viewed as a starter, but he could be a lefty weapon out of the pen if a change is made. Although he won’t ever be an ace, he looks the part of a certain asset in on the mound.
 
7. Jhoan Duran RHP
 
An MLB debut is probably on the horizon for Duran in 2020 if things go well. He was dominant at High-A Fort Myers and outpitched his 4.86 ERA at Double-A Pensacola. A fireballer with strikeout stuff, this is looking like a very nice return for the Twins from the Eduardo Escobar trade. Duran keeps the ball in the yard and does a decent job limiting walks. Another step up and he could be trending towards a frontline starter.
 
6. Brent Rooker 1B/OF
 
Somewhat limited by position and age, Rooker continues to rake and make it not matter. He could factor in for the Twins at 1B if the footwork gets in line, but the bat is going to have him up sooner rather than later. He missed the latter half of the season due to injury, but in 65 games at Triple-A Rochester he posted a .933 OPS with 14 dingers. Expect him to start on the farm, but there should be early opportunity for him in the majors.
 
5. Trevor Larnach OF
 
After a strong pro debut with an .890 OPS over his first 42 games in 2018, the former Beavers outfielder did nothing to calm his steam last season. He made it to Double-A Pensacola and posted the same .842 OPS he had in 84 games with High-A Fort Myers. A power threat homered in his first major league spring training game, Larnach can play all over the outfield and could push for an opportunity with the Twins before 2020 ends.
 
4. Jordan Balazovic RHP
 
Maybe no one in baseball ascended more in 2019 than Balazovic did. After being a fringe top 100 prospect, it’s hard to see him anywhere outside the top 50 heading into the upcoming season. He threw 73 innings for Fort Myers and posted a 2.84 ERA. The strikeouts are there, the command is there, and it all resulted in dominance. We’ll see if he’s tested at the next level, but the Canadian is looking like a staff ace.
 
3. Brusdar Graterol RHP
 
A three-inning cameo was what Graterol got to call his MLB debut experience. Velocity is his game and that showed as he routinely pumped triple digits. Strikeouts dipped for him at Double-A Pensacola this year, but he was enough of an asset to be used out of the pen on a division winning club. Expect him to go back to starting and be stretch out to begin 2020, but there’s so much to like here. If a third pitch develops, he could be a dominant starter. If it doesn’t, he’ll be a lockdown relief talent.
 
2. Alex Kirilloff OF
 
Missing time to start the year, Kirilloff took a while to get going. It resulted in just a .756 OPS in his first look at the Double-A level, but that shouldn’t cool anything about his trajectory. He’s still a corner outfielder that oozes athleticism and has an advanced approach at the dish. He’s a disciplined hitter with plenty of power, and a quick start in 2020 is going to light a fire under the promotion talk.
 
1. Royce Lewis SS
 
Much like Kirilloff, Lewis didn’t get off to a quick start and his bat scuffled all season. He posted just a .661 OPS between Fort Myers and Pensacola, while being questioned as to whether he’d stick at shortstop. Heading to the Arizona Fall League, he took home the MVP trophy and challenged for the batting title after posting a .975 OPS in 22 games. There’s far too much talent to ever write Lewis off regardless of the sample size. This kid still looks like an absolute superstar and getting back in a Blue Wahoos uniform to prove it is likely driving him this winter.
 
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Rightly so, Twins fans are very excited about Brusdar Graterol, the flame-throwing 21-year-old from Venezuela. Graterol was called up to the Twins bullpen last summer and mostly impressed, even touching 102 MPH on his sinker. Graterol will be in the rotation soon enough, and his future partner in crime, the one they call "Jordy Blaze,” is on his way to stardom.
 
Jordan Balazovic was drafted in the 5th round of the 2016 Amateur Draft out of Mississauga, Canada. Balazovic played in eight Gulf Coast League games as a 17-year-old and posted a 1.97 ERA. Balazovic was mediocre at Class A in 2018 with a 3.94 ERA and 7-3 record. While Balazovic had a pedestrian ERA, his peripherals were outstanding. He struck out 78 batters in 61 2/3 innings and allowed only 5 home runs.
 
Balazovic massively improved in 2019 with a 2.18 ERA in four starts at Cedar Rapids with 14.4 K/9. It was quickly realized that Balazovic was ready for the next step. He was promoted to Fort Myers and continued his excellence. In 73 innings, Jordy-B struck out 96 batters and allowed just three home runs. Balazovic was an elite strike thrower, walking just 2.4 batters per nine innings.
 
Balazovic increased his velocity and consistently lived at 95 MPH with his sinker. Balazovic has flashed a plus-slider and at times, a great changeup. With his velocity increasing, his complementary pitches are becoming devastating. Tom Froemming has great analysis here:
 
The 6 foot 5, 215 pound up-and-comer is developing well-deserved praise and attention. Balazovic is ranked as the 76th overall prospect on MLB Pipeline. Balazovic just turned 21, and figures to start next season in Pensacola at class Double-A. With the developmental system instituted by Derek Falvey and company, Jordy Blaze carries unforeseen upside.
 
Image Credits:
Creator:Gordon Donovan
Credit:Photo: Gordon Donovan
Copyright:Photo: Gordon Donovan

Overall, it's not hard to be excited about the Twins in 2020 given a 101 win season in 2019. The ending certainly wasn't ideal, but 2019 showed us that our window is open and it should be for a few years. Cleveland remains the only real competition in the central. Chicago is up and coming, but they are likely another year or two away before they can have a realistic shot of competing. KC and Detroit are dumpster fires right now. So with that in mind, it's up to Falvey and Levine to construct a roster that can not only win the central but advance deep into the post season.
 
There's no question that starting pitching is our biggest need, and if I were running the team, this is where I would focus if I were them, but we need to start by trimming and expanding the roster in advance of the Rule V draft. The Twins already made the easiest of moves by picking up Nelson Cruz's option, but it gets a bit tougher from here: This is our current 40 man roster. The following players are free agents: Gibson, Odorizzi, Schoop, Romo, and Castro. That leaves us at 36 before changes are made. I'd DFA/nontender/trade if someone wants to give up something for the following as well: Sam Dyson, Kohl Stewart, Ronald Torreyes, Ryan Lamarre, Trevor Hildenberger, and Ian Miller. I would also not pick up Perez's option. That brings us down to 28 guys on the roster going into winter meetings. Buxton and Poppen will most definitely return, so that moves us up to 30. CJ Cron is a bit of a wild card here. His play may not be worth the money spent on tendering him, but there's no replacement waiting in the wings just yet (more on him in a bit, but I haven't removed his spot). So as it stands right now, we need the following (several starting pitchers, a backup catcher, an 2B (though there's a replacement in house), possibly a 1B, and if possible another shut down reliever). Other than starting pitching help, this team is in pretty good shape...
 
So on that note, I'm going to start by tendering Odorizzi a QO, with the clear desire to sign him to a 3 year deal. I'm going to guestimate that at 3/45 to make it work, as the 17M QO is probably the starting point to a negotiation. Jake was very good for us this year, but I'm not sure he's good enough for teams to surrender a pick and pay him 50+M on a multi-year deal. That brings the roster to 31. With Odorizzi at 17M, our current payroll sits at 48M. I'm going to tender the following candidates with a note that I'd be willing to extend any extension candidate willing to sign a reasonable deal. Some players won't sign them (Buxton for sure as his value is low due to health), but I suspect a couple guys likely sign a longer term contract.
Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM
Trevor May – $2.1MM (extension candidate)
Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM (I'd stay year to year here, I could see trading him if a better FA option was available, but I'm most likely tendering him)
Miguel Sano – $5.9MM (extension candidate)
Byron Buxton – $2.9MM (extension candidate)
Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM (extension candidate)
Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM (extension candidate)
Jose Berrios – $5.4MM (extension candidate)

That's an additional 32.1M. Add Garver in there as he's not going anywhere, but his total is about .5M. That leaves payroll at roughly 81M without Cron. Cron's arb estimate is around 7.7M, which isn't terrible for a .780 OPS. He's roughly an average bat at 1B. The problem with him though is that there aren't ML ready options to take his place... not now at least. Rooker, Raley and Weil could use more seasoning, and Kirilloff is also questionable at this point. Next year at this time, one of those guys will hopefully be knocking at the door or perhaps even had some success at the major league level, but I'm not sure there should be a plan to count on a rookie to perform. Surveying the FA market, you have a couple options available. Josh Donaldson would likely be my primary target, as he could also play 3B giving Baldelli some flexibility with Sano/Garver at 1B on occasion as well. I doubt he comes cheap, and certainly not cheaper than Cron. He's likely going to get something similar to his salary last season and quite possibly a multi-year deal, so I'd guess around 20M. Zimmerman, Rizzo, and Thames all have club options available, and to be honest there really isn't much in terms of sure fire help out there. I don't think trading for a 1B makes any sense at all unless there's someone who is essentially on the last year of his deal and performing. In all, I think tendering Cron is the right answer here unless they know they can get Donaldson... and I doubt that. So I tender him at 7.7M bringing our payroll up to roughly 89M.
 
I'm not quite sure who all needs protecting and exposing. I'm using roster resource and protecting anyone that has R5 or Dec 19 as their status if their play warrants it. That said, I know this tool isn't completely accurate, so hopefully I haven't missed anyone. I see 10 names that warrant discussion. Let's start with the easy ones:
 
Candidates:
Griffin Jax (protect)
Luke Raley (protect)
Jake Reed (expose. He was not good last year)
Zander Wiel (expose. He was not good last year)

It gets a bit more difficult from here.
Travis Blankenhorn - He will likely get a crack at AAA in his age 23 season. He had a .785 OPS in AA, and really does seem to be turning a corner. Those numbers are nothing special, but question at hand is can he stick on a ML roster. I don't think it's worth the risk. I protect him.
Jhoan Duran - Duran likely starts in AA in his age 22 season, though he could also be promoted as he did spent some time there. He does a fantastic job keeping the ball in the park. His walk rate is acceptable and he doesn't give a lot of hits. He's kept his K rate around 10/9 IP for the last 2 seasons. I protect him.
Dakota Chalmers - Chalmers is a sleeper. I could see a bad team poaching him and stashing him with their extra spot as he will be 23 next season. The MLB roster size expands to 26 in 2020, and I think bad teams will use that to grab players like Chalmers with upside who may be exposed. The Twins have a few of them and ultimately I think someone gets left off. Chalmers is posting some sexy strike out numbers striking out 48 in 34 innings of relief work. He's also very stingy with the long ball. His walk rate though is scary as he gave 23 free passes. Bottom line for Chalmers is that right now, he won't do well on a major league roster. His AFL performance to date has not changed my view of this. I'm going to expose him.
Tom Hackimer - Hackimer pitched pretty well in his age 25 season in AA. He's one that could possibly stick in a mop up role in MLB. I lean towards not protecting him as well given his age. He got the strikeouts this season, his walk rate was a bit high at just over 4 per 9 innings but overall had a pretty good season between high A and AA. He likely starts in AA or AAA, but I'm going to expose him.
Jovani Moran - Moran is a similar pitcher to Chalmers if you look at the numbers. He gets lots of strikeouts and gives up too many free passes though he tends to be prone to the long ball. He will also be 23 next season. He's another one risking losing, but I think I expose him.
Tyler Wells - Wells is the hardest one. He was absolutely money in the minors but TJS derailed his 2019 season before it started. He will be rehabbing and should be able to pitch most of the year. I think the upside is too good to risk this, so I keep him.

That leaves us with 5 additions. Our roster now sits at 36. We need to figure out at least 2 starting pitchers, a backup C, and ideally a shutdown RP. We're also sitting on a couple individuals (Harper, Poppen, and Gonsalves) that I'd like to keep but could be set free in the event a better opportunity comes along through cost cutting or trade.
 
Falvey and Levine stated they weren't afraid to blow up the payroll when the windows is open, so now it's time to see if they will put the Pohlad's money to the test. They need pitching help badly, and having someone that can sit in front of Odorizzi and Berrios is a must in my opinion. Sign Gerrit Cole or Steven Strassburg (if he opts out) to a 5 or 6 year deal at 30M/season. That's probably what it will take to get either one of them. Feasibly, they could get them both and still have payroll sitting south of 150M, but I'm guessing that won't happen as much as I'd like and there are other needs I'd rather address... But they have to go big here, even if that means out bidding the competition by a significant margin. That moves payroll to $119M and gives us a pretty nice starting trio in Cole, Berrios, and Odorizzi. I'm guessing there's a QO attached here too for Cole at least, and I sacrifice the pick.
 
They still need 2 more pitchers. I'm fine letting Dobnak, Thorpe, Gonsalves, and Smeltzer compete for one of the spots. Most of these guys did well enough that I'm not losing sleep over the role. It's Dobnak's to lose at this point, but he earned it in limited looks. The reality is that unless there's a trade in the works that involves sending one or two of these guys off as part of a deal for a more established option such as say Mike Minor, I think this spot is going to go to pre-arb guys. That's another 500k on the payroll. Note that I didn't mention Graterol. I'm assuming he's going to remain as a starter, but that also means he's capped at about 120 innings. He could be this guy as well, but I think he could pair well with Michael Pineda if they bring him back... which brings me to my next FA target:
 
There are a few names I'd probably target here, they will have varying costs/years attached to them: Bumgardner, Wheeler, and Pineda would likely be my top 3. I'm personally not sold on Ryu from the Dodgers, but if my analytics guys liked him, then perhaps he's an option as well. Pineda actually pairs well with Graterol in that he can be stretched out and be the 5th starter in April/May and switch more to long relief/spot starting as the season wears on and Pineda returns from his suspension. That would keep Graterol's innings around 120 for the year (baring injury of course, which with Graterol is not low risk). Pineda would have been a QO option had he not been suspended. With roughly 40 days left on his suspension and of course the risk that he gets suspended again for longer, he's likely going to sign for much less than that. I'd offer him a 1/7 make good deal unless of course there's an unexpected price drop for the other guys on this list. That also means Graterol is on the 26 man, so that's another 500k to add to the payroll. If one of these other big names sign, I'm likely going to give Graterol a late start to his season in AAA and stretch him out to be the spot starter for the inevitable pitching injury. Once he gets closer to his 120, I'd shift him to the MLB pen during the stretch run.
 
If you're keeping track at this point, I've added another 8M here and now I'm sitting at roughly 127M.
 
Next up, I target a catcher. I'm not liking the idea of going with Astrudillo as my backup C. Rortvedt and Jeffers may be knocking at the door next year at this time, but counting on either in 2020 would not be wise. Astrudillo, while a fan favorite, still has options and is extremely valuable to the team earning frequent flier miles between Rochester and Minneapolis when someone gets hurt, so I'm going to sign someone. Retaining Castro is fine in my opinion if he's OK with a backup role. I'm looking though for no more than a two year deal. Castro works fine here, but I'd also target Austin Romine, Brian McCann, or Steven Voght. I'd be fine sacrificing a few home runs for some OBP. These guys are not young, so they won't be getting a huge deal. I'm going to guess it will be somewhere around 2/10-15, giving you a 5-8M cost in payroll. I'm going to assume this is 6M for now, bringing payroll up to 133.
 
Last, I'm targeting a RP. I didn't learn my lesson about free agent relievers (and hopefully I'll update that blog at some point later this month), and there's 1 FA reliever that I want on this team and think that Falvey should pay for. I'm targeting Will Smith and spending what it takes to get him. I'm guessing he's signing for a 3-4 year deal at 10M+. He signed a 3/24 deal with SF in his last go around, and I have to think he's going to get at least that. I'm going to assume 3/30, but I'd be willing to pay more.
 
That brings payroll up to 143.
 
My 26 man roster is now as follows:
C - Garver
1B - Cron
2B - Arraez or Gordon
3B - Sano
SS - Polanco
CF - Buxton
RF/LF - Rosario/Kepler
DH - Cruz
 
SP
Cole/Strassburg, Berrios, Odorizzi, Graterol/Pineda or other pitching FA, Dobnak
 
RP
Smith, May, Duffey, Rodgers, Littell, Graterol, Harper (I'd have some open competition, but these are who I've penciled in).
 
Bench
Adrianza, Cave, Castro or other FA, Gonzalez
 
I didn't count the salaries of Littell, Harper, and Cave or whomever internally would beat them out which comes out to another 1.5M. That puts my total payroll at roughly 144.5. I would hope this could go up a bit if my estimates were a bit low, but there's room there in my opinion.
 
So there you have it. We can add a top shelf starter and relief pitcher and keep our payroll under 150M. I'm not sure what the front office will target, but this seems like a very reasonable option to field a very competitive team in 2020 and one with a good shot of advancing deep in the post season.

The Minnesota Twins are one of the most well positioned franchises in baseball to acquire serious assets this month. Needing help on the mound, the optimal plan would be in acquiring two relievers and a starter. Without knowing how it will shake out, we do know that Derek Falvey's club has been connected to the San Francisco Giants and Madison Bumgarner. Should a deal be struck, what may that look like?
 
Given the Giants current standing, and free agency looming for the pair, both Bumgarner and Will Smith have been the focus of numerous trade discussions. Any selling organization would almost certainly prefer packages for players that part out one asset at a time. While Minnesota could use both Smith and Bumgarner we can separate the two of them for the sake of this exercise.
 
In his latest piece for The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal noted that Giants GM Farhan Zaidi prefers to get prospects closer to the majors. Not wanting lottery tickets and looking for an expedited rebuild, that's certainly an understandable plan. Prior to making any move, Minnesota must be convinced of what they'd be acquiring.
 
Bumgarner's name is one inviting all of the stories. He's a former World Series hero and has been included in the ace discussion over the course of his career. Right now he's a pitcher with a 3.86 ERA backed by FIP and xFIP numbers that suggest the mark is true. His velocity is in a similar place to what it's always been and despite major injuries in recent years, consistency has been relatively reliable.
 
There's no reason to think that any big league organization is trading for a player solely based on name recognition or pedigree. Falvey won't be lulled into the belief that this is the same guy who picked up a World Series MVP nod in 2014. If the scouting process reveals the soon-to-be 30-year-old has enough ability to bolster the rotation then a merit based acquisition would make plenty of sense.
 
Now we get to the cost of a deal. This is a rental Minnesota would be taking on in hopes of a deeper Postseason performance yet this season. He's not going to slot in ahead of staff ace Jose Berrios and any belief that Bumgarner would cost the Twins one of their top three prospects seems absurd. Excluding Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Brusdar Graterol from this deal gives us a clearer layout of what assets to look for.
 
Factoring in the Giants desire for players at the upper levels of the organization we can target players currently sitting at Double or Triple-A in the Minnesota system. Having such a deep and strong farm system the Twins can part out pieces and still be well set up for the future.
 
Minnesota Twins acquire SP Madison Bumgarner. San Francisco Giants acquire OF Brent Rooker, INF Nick Gordon, and RHP Sean Poppen.
 
With this return the Giants are getting a bit of everything. Rooker has a legit bat and would be in the big leagues for a significant amount of organizations right now. He plays on the corners, and there's questions about whether a move to first could happen with his current footwork. Swing and miss tendencies have slowed over the season with Triple-A Rochester and the power should play fine in any park. The Giants would be smart to ask for Trevor Larnach here, but he's further off and Minnesota should want to protect the upside there if they can.
 
Former first round pick Nick Gordon has regained some of his promise. No longer a top 100 name, he is posting a .788 OPS during his second trip through the International League. Gordon isn't likely ever going to hit for power, but he's got a .291 average across 55 games at Rochester this season and is doing that with a serviceable .335 OBP. Speed is one of his best assets, and while he's not brother Dee, Nick can turn it on around the bases. You'd like to see a more even K/BB ratio, and he's more 2B than SS at this point, but there's a 23-year-old regular here.
 
Poppen fits the mold of a solid trade candidate. He's 25 and at Triple-A for Minnesota, but there's more than a few arms slotted ahead of him for long term consideration. He had a mediocre start to the year at Double-A but has turned it on big time with Rochester. Posting a 10.1 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 49 innings at Triple-A this season, his 2.39 ERA is a career best. Sitting mid-90's with his fastball, this is a guy that can bolster the back end of a rotation and gets another boost pitching on the junior circuit.
 
Obviously the names and talent included in this deal shifts if Will Smith is indeed paired with Bumgarner, but this seems like a decent framework to begin the process with. Over the coming weeks we'll find out what comes to fruition, but the certainty of a move for Minnesota seems imminent.
 
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With the Winter Meetings well underway, signings and reports are flying in from every direction. The Minnesota Twins made their initial splash with the acquisitions of Johnathan Schoop and Ronald Torreyes. Now having the middle infield gaps covered, some thump in the lineup can be addressed. Rocco Baldelli’s projected starters have plenty of power at their disposal, but none look the part of true on-base threats. Nelson Cruz would change that.
 
On Tuesday evening Hector Gomez reported that the two teams left vying for the services of the former Seattle Mariners DH are the Twins and Tampa Bay Rays. Cruz hits the market as a 38-year-old that will be playing 2019 at the age of 39. Despite nearing his forties, there doesn’t yet appear to be much slowdown in terms of production. During 2018 with Seattle, Cruz watched his average dip to .256 (a career low), but it was bolstered by an .850 OPS and 37 homers.
 
There wasn’t ever a point in his career that Cruz was an ideal outfielder, but at this stage in the game he’s become a full time DH. Luckily with the Twins, there’s no need for him to ever be inserted into the outfield. On the premise of his bat alone, Cruz is among the most intriguing names for Minnesota to consider offensively. Dating back to 2014, he’s hit no less than 37 longballs, and he’s had a .356 OBP over that stretch.
 
Right now, Jorge Polanco looks destined to be the leadoff hitter for Baldelli, and some combination of Miguel Sano, C.J. Cron, and Eddie Rosario will fill out the top half of the lineup. That group has plenty of ability to lose balls in the seats, but Polanco’s .325 OBP over the past two seasons paces them. As baseball has trended towards the launch angle revolution, and adaptation for power, a remaining necessity to get on base is ever present. Even if everything breaks right from a homer standpoint for the current Twins group, there stands a reasonable expectation that many of them could be hollow, solo shots.
 
It’s not just on-base skills that make Cruz an ideal candidate to join the Twins clubhouse, however. As a veteran who has not bounced around, he’s been someone that no doubt displays a certain presence within the clubhouse. Minnesota has been big on veteran leadership surrounding their young and upcoming stars in recent years, but that role has often been filled with aging players offering little value (Torii Hunter, Matt Belisle, etc.). In Cruz, Baldelli gets a Spanish speaking veteran than can lead by example for many of the impressionable minds he’s looking to mold. Doing so by example on and off the field must have a bit more merit.
 
There’s little doubt that Cruz is approaching the end of his time as a professional ballplayer. Whether that means three years or five years, age always wins out. At this point in time there isn’t much reason to believe the production will dip, and that should calm any fears of agreeing to a one- or two-year deal. He’ll get paid a hefty sum, but with the open cash flow that the organization has, there will still be plenty of dollars to allocate towards pitching.
 
Whether this pact gets done while the Twins contingent is in Las Vegas or not remains to be seen, but it would be hard to swallow a scenario in which Minnesota was just “in the hunt” again. There’s not going to be a long-term commitment here, and the dollars won’t be a showstopper. There’s a serious fit from multiple angles, and a deal is something Derek Falvey and Thad Levine should be adamant about.
 
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Through eight games in the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins have played to a .500 record. Having had to deal with blistering cold, and even some snow, it's hardly felt like a true baseball season. If there's one thing that has felt warm and fuzzy however, it's been the look and output of first basemen Joe Mauer.
In 2017, Mauer returned to the land of .300 batting averages for the first time since 2013. He posted an .801 OPS bolstered by a .384 OBP all while looking the part of a guy that has a trio of batting titles under his belt. Having already transformed himself into a Gold Glove caliber first basemen, getting back to his old ways at the dish was a nice sigh to see. What's encouraging is that early returns in 2018 suggest that there may be more to come.
 
To understand where we are, we should probably take a look back at where we've been. The last time Mauer was considered "himself" in 2013, he was putting balls in play with a 37.4% hard hit rating. His chase rates (O-Swing %) and swinging strike percentages have really never gotten out of line, which indicates that his going well has always been a reflection of barreling the baseball. Fast forward to when things took a turn for the worst, and we find ourselves at the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Mauer's .732 and .718 OPS in those two seasons respectively are a career worst. It's no coincidence that those numbers were posted in conjunction with 28% and 29.8% hard hit rates.
 
Now let's jump back to the present. A year ago, Mauer looked like a revitalized and rejuvenated player. His 2.2 fWAR last year was a high water mark since the last time he was an All Star (2013), and it was backed by a 36.4% hard hit rate. What's great is that the early returns in 2018 don't make that look like an anomaly, and if anything, suggest that things may be trending even a bit better.
 
Sure it's early, so let's pump the breaks on another MVP type season, but Mauer's start is pretty eye-popping. Thus far the Twins first basemen has a career best 47.6% hard hit rate, and he's already put 11 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. A season ago his total was 204 and right now he's on pace to slightly eclipse that with a total of 223. Diving in even a bit further to those barreled balls, 10 of the 11 have been hit 100 mph or harder. In 2018 Mauer generated exit velocities of 100+ mph on 105 different occasions. With his current pace, he'd nearly double that in 2018 as he tracking towards 203 occurrences.
 
What we're seeing in the early going from Mauer is a batter that's not only locked in, but one that isn't being cheated either. His 13.4% chase rate is more than 3% better than at any other point in his career. Having always had a very good idea of where the strike zone is, Joe is currently dictating at bats, than walloping the baseball when it comes into his hitting zone. Last season, Mauer's 13.9 K% was 26th among qualified MLB hitters. At just 10% out of the gate in 2018, only 15 qualified hitters have posted better numbers.
 
There's no denying that there's a level of regression awaiting its turn to set in. After all, Mauer has a current seven game hitting streak and owns a .375/.500/.542 slash line out of the gate. The .429 BABIP is incredibly high, but also reflective of the quality contact he's continued to generate. Even with regression though, the process has yielded results that should display a level of sustainability with the assumption that the blueprint is stuck to over the course of the season.
 
At the end of the day, Minnesota isn't going to watch Joe Mauer win another batting title by the end of his career (Jose Altuve exists in the American League). What is becoming more clear however, is that there's some serious ability left in the tank for a guy trending towards a Hall of Fame career. On the final year of his deal with the Twins, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would be well served to bring this guy back for another couple of years. If Joe wants to keep trotting out to the diamond, it doesn't seem like his skills have told him that's a bad idea.
 
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This article was originally posted back in January, but with Mauer's 2000th hit Tom wanted various Mauer articles. I haven't changed much, but have added more data to support my opinion. I'd also just like to mention that I did not change my opinion on a potential salary for 2019 and beyond despite his torrid start to the season.
 
It's no secret that Joe Mauer is entering the final year of his 8 year, $184 million contract extension signed in 2010. It's also not a secret that Mauer isn't the player he was in 2009 or in the years leading up to that MVP season. What does seem to be a secret, is what thoughts "Falvine" has on Mauer's future past the 2018 season. There are really only three options, which I will breakdown below.
 
1. Stay with the Twins
Personally, I think this is the most likely scenario. He's from here, his family is here, he's spent his entire career here, his personality and demeanor (although frustrating to fans) fits well with the "Minnesota nice" mantra, and the Twins are starting to become contenders. So what will it take for the Twins to keep him here?
 
Since his move to 1st base (2012) Mauer has played 813 games as a first basemen, which is good for 13th most among 50 qualified players. In that same time he has provided a 14.7 WAR which is good for 10th best:
The "good": he's staying healthier, he's getting on base (6/50 in BA and 5/50 in OBP), and he's become one of the best defensive 1B in the game (#1 in UZR in 2017 among 21 qualified players).
The "bad": he'll be 36 in April of 2019 (only 6 qualified players were 36+ years old in '17), he provides no power as a 1B/DH (42/50 in SLG from 2012-2017), despite being healthier he's still good to miss at least 20 games/year not including the days provides no defensive value as a DH.

I think it's fair to assume that 2017 is the ceiling of what we can expect from Mauer in 2018 and beyond, although he has been lights out so far this season. Looking at salaries for players who are currently 36+ years old, 2017 and 2018 contract agreements, and salaries of other 1B around the league I would be looking for the Twins to give Mauer a 2-3 year deal at $8-$10 million/year not including incentives or player/team options. Again, I believe him signing with the Twins is the most likely scenario.
 
I came up with the $8 - $10 million range from looking at the following data.
 
Yonder Alonso signed with the Indians for $8mil per year. Comparatively to Mauer, he provides a little more power, less OBP, and a lot less defense. He's younger, coming off a career year, and also fits the "launch angle" ideal that so many hitters are trending towards. Ultimately, my opinion is that the pros and cons of both players provide a similar value to a team although the type of value they provide are different. I think that provides a sort of base line going into next offseason.
 
I also looked at players that signed in 2016/2017 offseason who were 36+ years old and although the median salary was 7.75 million a few of those guys are getting paid $13 & $16 million.If I were to include 35+ year olds, which is technically how old Mauer will be at the start of the 2019 season, the median is at $8 million and includes Yadier Molina (a career long Cardinal) getting paid $20 million. Although the median is lower, I think the higher deals give Mauer/Shapiro some room to negotiate an above the median salary. Especially if Mauer performs similarliy to how he did in 2017 and/or is able to hit like he currently is for a majority of 2018.
2. Sign Elsewhere
I don't see this happening, but obviously this is a possibility. Assuming Mauer only has a few more years in the big leagues, he could be looking for a team to win now. Now being 2019 or 2020. Depending on what the Twins FO does in free agency over the next couple years the Twins may or may not be legit world series contenders in 2019 or 2020. I hate to say it but with Greg Bird not being able to stay healthy the Yankees may have an opening at first base that would be a good fit for Mauer. Teams like Houston, Boston, Chicago (NL), Dodgers, Indians and Nationals are also obvious contenders, but currently have a player who is under contract at 1st base.
3. Retire
From what I have read/heard, there hasn't been any rumblings that Mauer is ready to hang them up. Doesn't mean it's not something to consider. Honestly, I almost think Joe would be more apt to retire than he would be to sign somewhere else. Moving somewhere else obviously would mean either moving his family or moving away from his family, which I don't think he would want to do.