Ted Schwerzler

As the spring training slate comes to a close, I couldn't help but find myself wondering about the pitching for the Minnesota Twins. The organization put forth the worst starting ERA in the majors a season ago, and the relief corps wasn't far behind. Going into 2017, it needs to be markedly better, and there's three different storylines I'm keyed in on.
 
First, let's start with the good. Kyle Gibson has been one of the best storylines for the Minnesota Twins this spring. Across seven starts, he's compiled 28.1 IP worth of work, and owns a 1.59 ERA. Although the sinkerballer has just 19 strikeouts, he's only issued five free passes, and has been incredibly efficient.
 
Coming off of his worst year as a major leaguer, Gibson has some late breakout appeal. He posted a 3.84 ERA along with a 3.96 FIP in 2015, and there was some real steam behind him being a star performer a season ago. Unfortunately that never got off the ground, and while defense hurt him, he didn't help himself much either.
 
Although spring numbers can be taken with a very small grain of salt, he's looked like a man on a mission. Gibson has been efficient, calculated, and very, very good. I don't want to suggest that it's because of his Florida performance that causes him to breakout, but a very good outfield should help him, and this could be the year we see Kyle Gibson look like the Twins former top pitching prospect was expected to perform.
 
Now, somewhere in the middle ground, we find Jose Berrios. Recently he was optioned to Triple-A Rochester. I can understand that he wasn't ramped up after pitching (or not pitching enough) in the World Baseball Classic. However, if he was truly in play for the 5th starter spot, he could have easily been stretched out for 80 pitches by the time his first outing rolled around. The more I thought about the decision, the more frustration I found myself having.
 
Berrios is headed back to Triple-A again, and he'll be making his 31st start there, as parts of three major stints. For a top pitching prospect that's really blocked by no one, it's a relatively unprecedented move. Minnesota has a hopeful Phil Hughes, and an unnecessary Hector Santiago in their rotation. If the latter ended up bouncing Berrios, that's an unfortunate development.
 
At some point, the command has to develop for Berrios, and if Minnesota believes he's better off not working with Neil Allen every day, that's probably an indictment of their big league pitching coach. While I can understand the legitimacy of the reasoning behind his optioning, the optics behind it don't look good, and the Twins again decided against giving a high ceiling arm an opportunity.
 
Rounding out the trio is a situation that absolutely revolves around high ceilings. In the bullpen, I've often suggested the need to be either creative or good. As Minnesota heads north, it doesn't appear their seven relievers will be either of those things. In my last roster projection, I tabbed the group as being Kintzler, Belisle, Pressly, Wimmers, Haley, Breslow, and Rogers. Of that group, you could probably tab Pressly as good, with creative going to Rogers.
 
Over the offseason, the Twins knew relief pitching was an issue for them. Instead of throwing more money than maybe a player was worth at names like Romo, Holland, Feliz, or any number of others, they settled on one veteran While Matt Belisle has proved serviceable of late, he wasn't going to be near the top of anyone's relief help list. They enlisted Craig Breslow as a veteran who's reinvented himself, but even he was brought in on a minor league deal.
 
When the dust settled, Minnesota did nothing to greatly improve its pen from outside. Regardless of the fact that veteran relievers can be had easily on one-year deals (and flipped just as easily) Minnesota stood pat. Then they doubled down on the move by suggesting that none of J.T. Chargois, Jake Reed, or Nick Burdi were ready for the big time.
 
It's absolutely fair to have reservations about those prospects, but if your pen isn't going to be good, giving them run is far from a bad ask. There was really nothing determined this spring that the Twins didn't already know on those prospects either, so the idea that they were on the outside looking in with no real talented veterans above them is a bit disheartening.
 
At the end of the day, the Twins are going to have to navigate some tough situations on the mound. The rotation remains relatively unchanged, and while Berrios can breathe life into it at some point, Santiago may be sucking it out for a while. Kyle Gibson could be on the verge of a breakthrough, and Paul Molitor desperately needs him to do so. In the pen, the lack of managerial acumen Molitor showed last season, combined with hit or miss arms, Minnesota could be looking at more blown leads than they care to admit to.
 
Baseball is a game of pitching and hitting, and if you don't have the former, the latter doesn't matter much. The Twins may win one, they're likely going to lose one of these storylines, and well, Jose, it rains...
 
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My first Minnesota Twins 25 man roster projection came out way back in January, the second version was then looked at in the middle of March. Now with Spring Training virtually over, it's time to get serious about who's coming north. It seems pretty clear who Minnesota will bring, but before the final announcement is made, I need to take one last shot.
 
The Twins still have just over 40 guys left in camp, and 10 of them are non-roster guys. A few of them have already been told they'll be reassigned to Rochester, so that helps with clarity a bit further. Given what we know, here's how I see the final 25 shaking out.
 
Rotation (5)
Ervin Santana
Hector Santiago
Kyle Gibson
Phil Hughes
Tyler Duffey

Paul Molitor recently told Mike Berardino that Santiago would start game 2 behind Santana, with Gibson to follow. That means Hughes gets the fourth game of the year and the fifth starter makes their debut against the White Sox. While the 5th starter could have been Trevor May or Adalberto Mejia, it's Tyler Duffey who has had a spring worthy of holding onto the job. I still think long term he profiles best in the pen, but to start 2017, this is where he begins.
 
Starting Lineup (9)
Jason Castro C
Joe Mauer 1B
Brian Dozier 2B
Jorge Polanco SS
Miguel Sano 3B
Eddie Rosario LF
Byron Buxton CF
Max Kepler RF
ByungHo Park DH

No changes here from roster projection 2.0. Kennys Vargas was given the opportunity to win the DH spot and simply fell short. He went to the WBC, didn't play, and then got hurt when he returned. I remain skeptical Vargas is a productive big leaguer, and while the injury gives Minnesota something to pin it on, the reality is that Park is simply the better DH option.
 
If there's something of intrigue here, it's that Eddie Rosario put together a really nice WBC and spring in general. He's expanding the zone just a bit less, and looks locked in defensively. If he can bring back some of the magic from his rookie season, the Twins stand to benefit big time.
 
Bench (4)
Eduardo Escobar
Robbie Grossman
Chris Gimenez
Danny Santana

Much remains the same here from the roster projection earlier this month. Drew Stubbs failed to capitalize on his opportunity to take Grossman's spot and has been released. The biggest difference is the inclusion of Danny Santana.
 
The final bench spot should've (and likely would've) been Ehire Adrianza's. A strained oblique late in spring training is going to have him open the season on the DL, and that likely saves Santana from the DFA that was looming. I don't see him as a productive big leaguer, he plays poor defense everywhere and struggles with the bat, but he's going to get a couple weeks to prove it.
 
Bullpen (7)
Brandon Kitnzler Closer
Ryan Pressly Setup
Matt Belisle
Justin Haley
Craig Breslow
Taylor Rogers
Alex Wimmers

The bullpen has seen a little bit of a shakeup since earlier this month. Chargois was optioned to Triple-A, and while it would've been nice to see him make the big league club, the reality was that a shaky spring did him in. I expect him to grab saves for Minnesota at some point in 2017, but he'll start the year on the farm.
 
Taking the place of Chargois comes down to a two man race between Michael Tonkin and Alex Wimmers. The former is out of options and likely wouldn't pass through waivers, but his spring hasn't been indicative of a guy the Twins can rely on. Coming back on a minor league deal, Wimmers has been solid enough in the limited spring action, and could offer some value in middle relief. His velocity has seen a spike since moving to the pen, he has been a better pitcher. It remains a tossup as to what the Twins do there, but Tonkin may have used his last chance.
 
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The Minnesota Twins recently announced that 2015 6th overall pick Tyler Jay was headed to the bullpen full time. While that obviously saps the value from the pick, it's a clear indication that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are all for positioning their young talent to produce the best possible return on the most ideal timeline. Given the state of the Twins, the organization actually has a lot of boxes checked off thanks to that young talent.
 
With Jay entering the fold, Minnesota now has a group of pen arms that could take what has been a poor relief corps, to the top in pretty short order. Building a stable of relief options that include Jay, J.T. Chargois, Nick Burdi, Mason Melotakis, Jake Reed, Tyler Duffey, and Taylor Rogers is a pretty great scenario to be in. Given the reality that all of them are in the cards for the 2017 season, their impact can be felt in relatively short order.
 
Then, moving to the offensive side of things, the new braintrust can look at a lineup littered with relatively young and projectable talent. The group consists of a former top prospect in Byron Buxton, a hulking slugger in Miguel Sano, a solid do-everything type in Max Kepler, and a bunch of other talent in the form of Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, ByungHo Park, Jason Castro and Eddie Rosario. Sure, it still remains to be seen whether or not Polanco and Dozier can realistically coexist, but trading the latter almost certainly brings another nice piece into the fold.
 
From this perspective, it's pretty easy to see that the Twins have a strong foundation when it comes to both their offensive firepower and the relief corps. Sure, not all of them are in their prime, and there's a handful of development still to take place. What's a pretty safe bet however, is that the intersection of peak performance should be relatively similar among the entire group.
 
That brings us to the elephant in the room, and it's a big one. Tell me if you've heard this before, a big league club needs starting pitching. On that front, the Twins really only have Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, and Kyle Gibson. It's probably fair to reason that Fernando Romero could factor into the big league rotation within the next two seasons, and Stephen Gonsalves certainly looks like an MLB arm. If there's something this group is lacking, it's definitely void of a sure thing.
 
Given a relatively solidified bullpen and offense, splurging on an ace, or number two starting pitcher should be in the cards for the Twins. Whether scouring the free agent market as money is plentiful over the next two offseasons, or dealing from a position of wealth in order to recoup that top arm, Minnesota must commit to grabbing two pitchers.
 
In the season ahead, the development of the youth explained above will be nearly as intriguing of a storyline as the results themselves. If the breakouts come from the pen, and the offense sees it's youth round into the solid everyday types it should be littered with, then Falvey and Levine can absolutely envision a 25 man that's not too far away. Given the state of the AL Central, that's a really promising notion.
 
It's always going to be a pretty big ask to suggest a big league team go and get top tier pitching. If there's a club positioned well to overextended, or at least pull out all of the stops, it might be the Minnesota Twins. With two third of the roster categories complete thanks to internal help, looking at the best external options to complete the third is a very realistic possibility.
 
Regardless of how 2017 finishes for the Twins, a strong development arc could put them a pitcher or two away from being something really special for quite some time.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Minnesota Twins recently announced that 2015 6th overall pick Tyler Jay was headed to the bullpen full time. While that obviously saps the value from the pick, it's a clear indication that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are all for positioning their young talent to produce the best possible return on the most ideal timeline. Given the state of the Twins, the organization actually has a lot of boxes checked off thanks to that young talent.
 
With Jay entering the fold, Minnesota now has a group of pen arms that could take what has been a poor relief corps, to the top in pretty short order. Building a stable of relief options that include Jay, J.T. Chargois, Nick Burdi, Mason Melotakis, Jake Reed, Tyler Duffey, and Taylor Rogers is a pretty great scenario to be in. Given the reality that all of them are in the cards for the 2017 season, their impact can be felt in relatively short order.
 
Then, moving to the offensive side of things, the new braintrust can look at a lineup littered with relatively young and projectable talent. The group consists of a former top prospect in Byron Buxton, a hulking slugger in Miguel Sano, a solid do-everything type in Max Kepler, and a bunch of other talent in the form of Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, ByungHo Park, Jason Castro and Eddie Rosario. Sure, it still remains to be seen whether or not Polanco and Dozier can realistically coexist, but trading the latter almost certainly brings another nice piece into the fold.
 
From this perspective, it's pretty easy to see that the Twins have a strong foundation when it comes to both their offensive firepower and the relief corps. Sure, not all of them are in their prime, and there's a handful of development still to take place. What's a pretty safe bet however, is that the intersection of peak performance should be relatively similar among the entire group.
 
That brings us to the elephant in the room, and it's a big one. Tell me if you've heard this before, a big league club needs starting pitching. On that front, the Twins really only have Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, and Kyle Gibson. It's probably fair to reason that Fernando Romero could factor into the big league rotation within the next two seasons, and Stephen Gonsalves certainly looks like an MLB arm. If there's something this group is lacking, it's definitely void of a sure thing.
 
Given a relatively solidified bullpen and offense, splurging on an ace, or number two starting pitcher should be in the cards for the Twins. Whether scouring the free agent market as money is plentiful over the next two offseasons, or dealing from a position of wealth in order to recoup that top arm, Minnesota must commit to grabbing two pitchers.
 
In the season ahead, the development of the youth explained above will be nearly as intriguing of a storyline as the results themselves. If the breakouts come from the pen, and the offense sees it's youth round into the solid everyday types it should be littered with, then Falvey and Levine can absolutely envision a 25 man that's not too far away. Given the state of the AL Central, that's a really promising notion.
 
It's always going to be a pretty big ask to suggest a big league team go and get top tier pitching. If there's a club positioned well to overextended, or at least pull out all of the stops, it might be the Minnesota Twins. With two third of the roster categories complete thanks to internal help, looking at the best external options to complete the third is a very realistic possibility.
 
Regardless of how 2017 finishes for the Twins, a strong development arc could put them a pitcher or two away from being something really special for quite some time.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Minnesota Twins recently announced that 2015 6th overall pick Tyler Jay was headed to the bullpen full time. While that obviously saps the value from the pick, it's a clear indication that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are all for positioning their young talent to produce the best possible return on the most ideal timeline. Given the state of the Twins, the organization actually has a lot of boxes checked off thanks to that young talent.
 
With Jay entering the fold, Minnesota now has a group of pen arms that could take what has been a poor relief corps, to the top in pretty short order. Building a stable of relief options that include Jay, J.T. Chargois, Nick Burdi, Mason Melotakis, Jake Reed, Tyler Duffey, and Taylor Rogers is a pretty great scenario to be in. Given the reality that all of them are in the cards for the 2017 season, their impact can be felt in relatively short order.
 
Then, moving to the offensive side of things, the new braintrust can look at a lineup littered with relatively young and projectable talent. The group consists of a former top prospect in Byron Buxton, a hulking slugger in Miguel Sano, a solid do-everything type in Max Kepler, and a bunch of other talent in the form of Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, ByungHo Park, Jason Castro and Eddie Rosario. Sure, it still remains to be seen whether or not Polanco and Dozier can realistically coexist, but trading the latter almost certainly brings another nice piece into the fold.
 
From this perspective, it's pretty easy to see that the Twins have a strong foundation when it comes to both their offensive firepower and the relief corps. Sure, not all of them are in their prime, and there's a handful of development still to take place. What's a pretty safe bet however, is that the intersection of peak performance should be relatively similar among the entire group.
 
That brings us to the elephant in the room, and it's a big one. Tell me if you've heard this before, a big league club needs starting pitching. On that front, the Twins really only have Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, and Kyle Gibson. It's probably fair to reason that Fernando Romero could factor into the big league rotation within the next two seasons, and Stephen Gonsalves certainly looks like an MLB arm. If there's something this group is lacking, it's definitely void of a sure thing.
 
Given a relatively solidified bullpen and offense, splurging on an ace, or number two starting pitcher should be in the cards for the Twins. Whether scouring the free agent market as money is plentiful over the next two offseasons, or dealing from a position of wealth in order to recoup that top arm, Minnesota must commit to grabbing two pitchers.
 
In the season ahead, the development of the youth explained above will be nearly as intriguing of a storyline as the results themselves. If the breakouts come from the pen, and the offense sees it's youth round into the solid everyday types it should be littered with, then Falvey and Levine can absolutely envision a 25 man that's not too far away. Given the state of the AL Central, that's a really promising notion.
 
It's always going to be a pretty big ask to suggest a big league team go and get top tier pitching. If there's a club positioned well to overextended, or at least pull out all of the stops, it might be the Minnesota Twins. With two third of the roster categories complete thanks to internal help, looking at the best external options to complete the third is a very realistic possibility.
 
Regardless of how 2017 finishes for the Twins, a strong development arc could put them a pitcher or two away from being something really special for quite some time.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Minnesota Twins recently announced that 2015 6th overall pick Tyler Jay was headed to the bullpen full time. While that obviously saps the value from the pick, it's a clear indication that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are all for positioning their young talent to produce the best possible return on the most ideal timeline. Given the state of the Twins, the organization actually has a lot of boxes checked off thanks to that young talent.
 
With Jay entering the fold, Minnesota now has a group of pen arms that could take what has been a poor relief corps, to the top in pretty short order. Building a stable of relief options that include Jay, J.T. Chargois, Nick Burdi, Mason Melotakis, Jake Reed, Tyler Duffey, and Taylor Rogers is a pretty great scenario to be in. Given the reality that all of them are in the cards for the 2017 season, their impact can be felt in relatively short order.
 
Then, moving to the offensive side of things, the new braintrust can look at a lineup littered with relatively young and projectable talent. The group consists of a former top prospect in Byron Buxton, a hulking slugger in Miguel Sano, a solid do-everything type in Max Kepler, and a bunch of other talent in the form of Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, ByungHo Park, Jason Castro and Eddie Rosario. Sure, it still remains to be seen whether or not Polanco and Dozier can realistically coexist, but trading the latter almost certainly brings another nice piece into the fold.
 
From this perspective, it's pretty easy to see that the Twins have a strong foundation when it comes to both their offensive firepower and the relief corps. Sure, not all of them are in their prime, and there's a handful of development still to take place. What's a pretty safe bet however, is that the intersection of peak performance should be relatively similar among the entire group.
 
That brings us to the elephant in the room, and it's a big one. Tell me if you've heard this before, a big league club needs starting pitching. On that front, the Twins really only have Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, and Kyle Gibson. It's probably fair to reason that Fernando Romero could factor into the big league rotation within the next two seasons, and Stephen Gonsalves certainly looks like an MLB arm. If there's something this group is lacking, it's definitely void of a sure thing.
 
Given a relatively solidified bullpen and offense, splurging on an ace, or number two starting pitcher should be in the cards for the Twins. Whether scouring the free agent market as money is plentiful over the next two offseasons, or dealing from a position of wealth in order to recoup that top arm, Minnesota must commit to grabbing two pitchers.
 
In the season ahead, the development of the youth explained above will be nearly as intriguing of a storyline as the results themselves. If the breakouts come from the pen, and the offense sees it's youth round into the solid everyday types it should be littered with, then Falvey and Levine can absolutely envision a 25 man that's not too far away. Given the state of the AL Central, that's a really promising notion.
 
It's always going to be a pretty big ask to suggest a big league team go and get top tier pitching. If there's a club positioned well to overextended, or at least pull out all of the stops, it might be the Minnesota Twins. With two third of the roster categories complete thanks to internal help, looking at the best external options to complete the third is a very realistic possibility.
 
Regardless of how 2017 finishes for the Twins, a strong development arc could put them a pitcher or two away from being something really special for quite some time.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

With just a couple of weeks left until Opening Day, the Minnesota Twins will be whittling down their players in camp and aligning the 40 man. What that means for a team with no spots left on the 40 man roster, is a handful of hard decisions lie ahead. The interesting bit for the new regime, is that it appears there are more moves than initially were to be expected.
 
Although the active 25 man roster can remain in flux through the first few weeks, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are going to need to make decisions on who they want to hang onto. With so many new faces coming into the picture, there's going to be some holdovers that find themselves out of luck. Shuffling the 40 man and sending guys to the minors, or looking for a different organization, is never an easy or fun task. From where I'm standing though, it seems there's plenty of work ahead.
 
First, let's take a look at the guys likely needing a spot:
 
Craig Breslow- RP
 
When the Twins signed Breslow this offseason, much was made about how he had reinvented his arm angle and pitching philosophy. Taking an analytical approach, Breslow broke down his mechanics and remade himself to suit his current ability. He's looked plenty capable this spring, and gives Minnesota a solid lefty presence in relief.
Chance he makes the club: 85%
 
Ryan Vogelsong- SP
 
Vogelsong hasn't been great this spring, and he's been largely mediocre since 2012. However, with Trevor May going down, I could definitely see the Twins going the easy or safe route with the 5th starter. Both Adalebrto Mejia and Jose Berrios still have options, and given the usage needed from a 5th starter, Vogelsong wouldn't have to take the ball incredibly often. Should Minnesota go this route, I'd look at it as settling, and really, an unnecessary 40 man move. However, reports are beginning to suggest it looks likely, and he'll need to be accommodated.
Chance he make the club: 80%
 
Chris Gimenez- C
 
Despite how good Mitch Gavrer has shown this spring, the reality is that there's a big jump from Double to Triple-A, and even further to the big leagues. Gimenez seems locked in now as the backup catcher, and his familiarity with both Falvey and Levine from previous organizations helps. He's a solid veteran presence, and has been on some really good ballclubs. He doesn't do anything incredibly well, but he's a serviceable backup to Jason Castro and allows the Twins time to wait on Garver to develop.
Chance he makes the club: 95%
 
ByungHo Park- DH
 
Before spring training started, Park was jettisoned from the 40 man. He went unclaimed on waivers and was brought into camp still competing for a DH job with Kennys Vargas. I have wondered if Vargas wasn't given this move as a vote of confidence that he was the lone 40 man DH, but he's done little with it. Park has looked solid at the plate this swing, both with the approach (6/4 K/BB) and the results. On top of that, he's the better fielding first basemen, and really gives the Twins a higher ceiling bat. I don't see Vargas as much more than a bench bat long term and think Park has earned his way back in.
Chance he makes the club: 60%
 
Drew Stubbs- OF
 
Stubbs inclusion is an interesting one, because it largely depends on how the Twins view Robbie Grossman. They are both solid OBP guys, but it's Stubbs who swings and misses (and has been ineffective in general) much more often. The one dynamic playing to Stubbs' strength is his ability to play all three outfield spots. Grossman is a corner guy only, and average at best. If the Twins want to have a more dynamic fourth outfielder, they could decide to go this way. However, teams shouldn't be beating down Stubbs' door, so Minnesota could likely hold him at Triple-A as well.
Chance he makes the club: 10%
 
With this construction, we have at least four guys needing 40 man spots, with a potential fifth. Right now the Twins find their 40 man at capacity, so what gives?
 
Trevor May- P
 
This is the easiest move for the Twins to make to clear a 40 man spot. May is done for the year after suffering a torn UCL. He'll likely need Tommy John surgery, and it's a certainty he's placed on the 60 day DL.
Removed from 40 man: 100%
 
Buddy Boshers- RP
 
Including Boshers here isn't a slight to him, but more of a roster crunch. Assuming Breslow makes the club, the Twins are going to carry a max of one more lefty reliever. That leaves the group of Taylor Rogers, Ryan O'Rourke, and Boshers vying for that spot. The first won't be removed from the 40 man, and both Boshers and O'Rourke could find themselves out in the cold.
Removed from 40 man: 50%
 
Ryan O'Rourke- RP
 
First, see above. Then realize O'Rourke is a dominant LOOGY but is rarely used solely in that instance, and is 28. He's been passed through waivers before, and likely would go unclaimed again. Regardless, I think it's a coin flip as to what happens between him and Boshers, with the slight edge going to Buddy.
Removed from 40 man: 51%
 
Glen Perkins- RP
 
At this point, Perkins presents an interesting case. He's on the path to recovery, but his exact timetable for return remain a mystery. He needed his labrum literally reattached to the bone, and I doubt his overall effectiveness going forward. For the time being though, Minnesota could open up a 40 man spot by stashing him on the 60 day DL.
Removed from 40 man: 25%
 
Michael Tonkin- RP
 
Out of options, and probably on the outside of the pen looking in, Tonkin could find himself looking for a new team. He was improperly used in 2015, and then did little with his opportunities a year ago. With Rule 5 pick Justin Haley in the fold, as well as newly signed Matt Belisle, there's maybe not enough room in the Twins relief corps to accommodate Tonkin. He could clear waivers, but I don't think the Twins view him as must keep material.
Removed from 40 man: 60%
 
Danny Santana- Util
 
This spring, Santana has been used all over the place, and he's played quite a bit. I'm starting to try and convince myself he's being used as the guy who gets breaks in for teammates. At this point, he's a utility man that can't play any position above average defensively, and his bat has never been anything close to the inflated BABIP number his rookie year lulled many into thinking. With Ehire Adrianza the superior fielder, and Eduardo Escobar a better all around player, Santana ends up being a roster casualty out of options.
Removed from 40 man: 90%
 
Robbie Grossman- OF
 
Of those included, Grossman is probably the least likely to be going anywhere. He's completely tied to Drew Stubbs and how that situation plays out. I'd view them as an interchangeable duo, and only one stays. If Minnesota keeps Grossman, they'll try to hold onto Stubbs on the farm. If it's Stubbs, Grossman will likely look to latch on elsewhere.
Removed from 40 man:10%
 
With that breakdown, we have seven candidates that could create room for four or five 40 man additions. The Twins are still a ways away from needing to have answers, but the guys on the bottom list are absolutely going to be considered to make way for those above them.
 
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Having spent time at spring training down in Fort Myers last week, the Twins came off with a process that looked poised to process better results. 2017 has been looking like a season in which Minnesota could turn the page from an ugly 103 loss a season ago. Then, upon returning to Minnesota, the news that Trevor May's season would now be over had hit. What happens now?
 
After looking back through some of my tweets from Minnesota's exhibition against Team USA, it seems I had been aware of what really was unknown. Sitting around 95 mph on his fastball at the start of the game, May's velocity dipped to 91-92 mph in short order. It was later revealed that in a pitch midway through his outing, he blew out his UCL. Now destined for Tommy John surgery, the Twins must pick up the pieces and ask themselves what's next.
 
I had Trevor May penciled in as the team's fifth starter. He wasn't going back to the bullpen with his back issues, and he offered legitimate upside in the rotation. While that now isn't going to happen, the list of candidates to take his place is long. Everyone from Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, and Justin Haley to Ryan Vogelsong, Tyler Duffey, and Nick Tepesch should be in play. For Molitor's squad though, I think the narrative is less about the next man up than it is the men already involved.
 
There has long been little doubt that Phil Hughes, Hector Santiago, or Kyle Gibson would be in the Twins Opening Day rotation. Each of those three was a lock, and they'd be joining Opening Day starter Ervin Santana. What becomes integral now is that the trio elevate themselves to pick up the slack.
 
First and foremost, Hughes has to show his injury is behind him. Over the course of the spring, a lot had been made of Hughes' velocity, and for good reason. After undergoing Thoracic Outlet surgery, he's seen a visible decline in the speed of his fastball. For a guy that doesn't blow batters away, losing any competitive advantage isn't ideal.
 
Last season, Hughes turned in just 59 innings before ending his season. He had already given up 11 homers, after surrendering a league worst 29 the season before, and his walk rate had doubled (but still respectable at 2.0 BB/9). Hughes hasn't given Minnesota more than 5.4 K/9 since his incredibly debut season, and he'll need to be better than his low water mark this time around. Minnesota isn't going to bank on him to be that Cy Young type pitcher he was in 2014, but he must have an ERA right under 4.00 and strike out at least six per nine. It's a big ask for a guy with a lot of question marks, but the Twins can't have him do less now.
 
That brings us to Hector Santiago, who's done little to put himself in good graces since getting to Minnesota. The Twins are paying him virtually the same $12 million that Ricky Nolasco took up, and his numbers haven't been heartwarming. After coming over from Los Angeles last season, Santiago owned a 5.58 ERA and gave up 13 long balls (to total 33 on the year).
 
The addition of Jason Castro should help Santiago. Kurt Suzuki wasn't going to do him favors behind the dish, and a pitcher who has given up 62 homers since 2015 needs every advantage he can muster. Again, the Twins won't be counting on the 2015 All Star version of the former Angels pitcher, but they need him to pitch like he deserves to be in the rotation as opposed to an arbitration casualty.
 
Finally, the biggest boost from the group could come from home grown Kyle Gibson. The former first round pick has been a breakout candidate for the past two years now, and it just hasn't come together. After an exciting 2015, Gibson took a big step back in 2016, and that needs to reverse its course. Despite owning a 5.07 ERA last season, it was the 4.70 FIP that did him in. Owning strikeout and walk totals in line with his career norms, Gibson wasn't doing himself any favors with an already shaky defense.
 
Molitor's sinkerballer needs to put himself in good situations and capitalize on them. Through early spring action, he's arguably looked the best of all Twins starters, and while results aren't much to get hung up on, his process and efficiency have been notable as well. If Gibson can emerge as the ace of the Twins staff, and take the reigns from Ervin Santana, the rotation group will be elevated beyond what the loss of May likely is.
 
At the end of the day, Minnesota not having Trevor May in the rotation to begin the year is an unfortunate development. No matter who fills his shoes however, it's going to be on the cast of the already assumed starters that will need to pick up the slack. What kind of upside Minnesota's 5th starter possesses was always going to be a wild card, but the margin for error is now markedly smaller.
 
Time to see who can pick their teammate up.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

With just a couple of weeks left until Opening Day, the Minnesota Twins will be whittling down their players in camp and aligning the 40 man. What that means for a team with no spots left on the 40 man roster, is a handful of hard decisions lie ahead. The interesting bit for the new regime, is that it appears there are more moves than initially were to be expected.
 
Although the active 25 man roster can remain in flux through the first few weeks, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are going to need to make decisions on who they want to hang onto. With so many new faces coming into the picture, there's going to be some holdovers that find themselves out of luck. Shuffling the 40 man and sending guys to the minors, or looking for a different organization, is never an easy or fun task. From where I'm standing though, it seems there's plenty of work ahead.
 
First, let's take a look at the guys likely needing a spot:
 
Craig Breslow- RP
 
When the Twins signed Breslow this offseason, much was made about how he had reinvented his arm angle and pitching philosophy. Taking an analytical approach, Breslow broke down his mechanics and remade himself to suit his current ability. He's looked plenty capable this spring, and gives Minnesota a solid lefty presence in relief.
Chance he makes the club: 85%
 
Ryan Vogelsong- SP
 
Vogelsong hasn't been great this spring, and he's been largely mediocre since 2012. However, with Trevor May going down, I could definitely see the Twins going the easy or safe route with the 5th starter. Both Adalebrto Mejia and Jose Berrios still have options, and given the usage needed from a 5th starter, Vogelsong wouldn't have to take the ball incredibly often. Should Minnesota go this route, I'd look at it as settling, and really, an unnecessary 40 man move. However, reports are beginning to suggest it looks likely, and he'll need to be accommodated.
Chance he make the club: 80%
 
Chris Gimenez- C
 
Despite how good Mitch Gavrer has shown this spring, the reality is that there's a big jump from Double to Triple-A, and even further to the big leagues. Gimenez seems locked in now as the backup catcher, and his familiarity with both Falvey and Levine from previous organizations helps. He's a solid veteran presence, and has been on some really good ballclubs. He doesn't do anything incredibly well, but he's a serviceable backup to Jason Castro and allows the Twins time to wait on Garver to develop.
Chance he makes the club: 95%
 
ByungHo Park- DH
 
Before spring training started, Park was jettisoned from the 40 man. He went unclaimed on waivers and was brought into camp still competing for a DH job with Kennys Vargas. I have wondered if Vargas wasn't given this move as a vote of confidence that he was the lone 40 man DH, but he's done little with it. Park has looked solid at the plate this swing, both with the approach (6/4 K/BB) and the results. On top of that, he's the better fielding first basemen, and really gives the Twins a higher ceiling bat. I don't see Vargas as much more than a bench bat long term and think Park has earned his way back in.
Chance he makes the club: 60%
 
Drew Stubbs- OF
 
Stubbs inclusion is an interesting one, because it largely depends on how the Twins view Robbie Grossman. They are both solid OBP guys, but it's Stubbs who swings and misses (and has been ineffective in general) much more often. The one dynamic playing to Stubbs' strength is his ability to play all three outfield spots. Grossman is a corner guy only, and average at best. If the Twins want to have a more dynamic fourth outfielder, they could decide to go this way. However, teams shouldn't be beating down Stubbs' door, so Minnesota could likely hold him at Triple-A as well.
Chance he makes the club: 10%
 
With this construction, we have at least four guys needing 40 man spots, with a potential fifth. Right now the Twins find their 40 man at capacity, so what gives?
 
Trevor May- P
 
This is the easiest move for the Twins to make to clear a 40 man spot. May is done for the year after suffering a torn UCL. He'll likely need Tommy John surgery, and it's a certainty he's placed on the 60 day DL.
Removed from 40 man: 100%
 
Buddy Boshers- RP
 
Including Boshers here isn't a slight to him, but more of a roster crunch. Assuming Breslow makes the club, the Twins are going to carry a max of one more lefty reliever. That leaves the group of Taylor Rogers, Ryan O'Rourke, and Boshers vying for that spot. The first won't be removed from the 40 man, and both Boshers and O'Rourke could find themselves out in the cold.
Removed from 40 man: 50%
 
Ryan O'Rourke- RP
 
First, see above. Then realize O'Rourke is a dominant LOOGY but is rarely used solely in that instance, and is 28. He's been passed through waivers before, and likely would go unclaimed again. Regardless, I think it's a coin flip as to what happens between him and Boshers, with the slight edge going to Buddy.
Removed from 40 man: 51%
 
Glen Perkins- RP
 
At this point, Perkins presents an interesting case. He's on the path to recovery, but his exact timetable for return remain a mystery. He needed his labrum literally reattached to the bone, and I doubt his overall effectiveness going forward. For the time being though, Minnesota could open up a 40 man spot by stashing him on the 60 day DL.
Removed from 40 man: 25%
 
Michael Tonkin- RP
 
Out of options, and probably on the outside of the pen looking in, Tonkin could find himself looking for a new team. He was improperly used in 2015, and then did little with his opportunities a year ago. With Rule 5 pick Justin Haley in the fold, as well as newly signed Matt Belisle, there's maybe not enough room in the Twins relief corps to accommodate Tonkin. He could clear waivers, but I don't think the Twins view him as must keep material.
Removed from 40 man: 60%
 
Danny Santana- Util
 
This spring, Santana has been used all over the place, and he's played quite a bit. I'm starting to try and convince myself he's being used as the guy who gets breaks in for teammates. At this point, he's a utility man that can't play any position above average defensively, and his bat has never been anything close to the inflated BABIP number his rookie year lulled many into thinking. With Ehire Adrianza the superior fielder, and Eduardo Escobar a better all around player, Santana ends up being a roster casualty out of options.
Removed from 40 man: 90%
 
Robbie Grossman- OF
 
Of those included, Grossman is probably the least likely to be going anywhere. He's completely tied to Drew Stubbs and how that situation plays out. I'd view them as an interchangeable duo, and only one stays. If Minnesota keeps Grossman, they'll try to hold onto Stubbs on the farm. If it's Stubbs, Grossman will likely look to latch on elsewhere.
Removed from 40 man:10%
 
With that breakdown, we have seven candidates that could create room for four or five 40 man additions. The Twins are still a ways away from needing to have answers, but the guys on the bottom list are absolutely going to be considered to make way for those above them.
 
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Having spent time at spring training down in Fort Myers last week, the Twins came off with a process that looked poised to process better results. 2017 has been looking like a season in which Minnesota could turn the page from an ugly 103 loss a season ago. Then, upon returning to Minnesota, the news that Trevor May's season would now be over had hit. What happens now?
 
After looking back through some of my tweets from Minnesota's exhibition against Team USA, it seems I had been aware of what really was unknown. Sitting around 95 mph on his fastball at the start of the game, May's velocity dipped to 91-92 mph in short order. It was later revealed that in a pitch midway through his outing, he blew out his UCL. Now destined for Tommy John surgery, the Twins must pick up the pieces and ask themselves what's next.
 
I had Trevor May penciled in as the team's fifth starter. He wasn't going back to the bullpen with his back issues, and he offered legitimate upside in the rotation. While that now isn't going to happen, the list of candidates to take his place is long. Everyone from Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, and Justin Haley to Ryan Vogelsong, Tyler Duffey, and Nick Tepesch should be in play. For Molitor's squad though, I think the narrative is less about the next man up than it is the men already involved.
 
There has long been little doubt that Phil Hughes, Hector Santiago, or Kyle Gibson would be in the Twins Opening Day rotation. Each of those three was a lock, and they'd be joining Opening Day starter Ervin Santana. What becomes integral now is that the trio elevate themselves to pick up the slack.
 
First and foremost, Hughes has to show his injury is behind him. Over the course of the spring, a lot had been made of Hughes' velocity, and for good reason. After undergoing Thoracic Outlet surgery, he's seen a visible decline in the speed of his fastball. For a guy that doesn't blow batters away, losing any competitive advantage isn't ideal.
 
Last season, Hughes turned in just 59 innings before ending his season. He had already given up 11 homers, after surrendering a league worst 29 the season before, and his walk rate had doubled (but still respectable at 2.0 BB/9). Hughes hasn't given Minnesota more than 5.4 K/9 since his incredibly debut season, and he'll need to be better than his low water mark this time around. Minnesota isn't going to bank on him to be that Cy Young type pitcher he was in 2014, but he must have an ERA right under 4.00 and strike out at least six per nine. It's a big ask for a guy with a lot of question marks, but the Twins can't have him do less now.
 
That brings us to Hector Santiago, who's done little to put himself in good graces since getting to Minnesota. The Twins are paying him virtually the same $12 million that Ricky Nolasco took up, and his numbers haven't been heartwarming. After coming over from Los Angeles last season, Santiago owned a 5.58 ERA and gave up 13 long balls (to total 33 on the year).
 
The addition of Jason Castro should help Santiago. Kurt Suzuki wasn't going to do him favors behind the dish, and a pitcher who has given up 62 homers since 2015 needs every advantage he can muster. Again, the Twins won't be counting on the 2015 All Star version of the former Angels pitcher, but they need him to pitch like he deserves to be in the rotation as opposed to an arbitration casualty.
 
Finally, the biggest boost from the group could come from home grown Kyle Gibson. The former first round pick has been a breakout candidate for the past two years now, and it just hasn't come together. After an exciting 2015, Gibson took a big step back in 2016, and that needs to reverse its course. Despite owning a 5.07 ERA last season, it was the 4.70 FIP that did him in. Owning strikeout and walk totals in line with his career norms, Gibson wasn't doing himself any favors with an already shaky defense.
 
Molitor's sinkerballer needs to put himself in good situations and capitalize on them. Through early spring action, he's arguably looked the best of all Twins starters, and while results aren't much to get hung up on, his process and efficiency have been notable as well. If Gibson can emerge as the ace of the Twins staff, and take the reigns from Ervin Santana, the rotation group will be elevated beyond what the loss of May likely is.
 
At the end of the day, Minnesota not having Trevor May in the rotation to begin the year is an unfortunate development. No matter who fills his shoes however, it's going to be on the cast of the already assumed starters that will need to pick up the slack. What kind of upside Minnesota's 5th starter possesses was always going to be a wild card, but the margin for error is now markedly smaller.
 
Time to see who can pick their teammate up.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Minnesota Twins have now played a handful of games this spring, and with the calendar quickly approaching the middle of March, players will be cut and reassigned to minor league camp shortly. For Paul Molitor's club, squeaking out extra wins on a roster looking to rebound from a tough 2016 is going to be an absolute must. I'm not so convinced there aren't a few surprises in store as to how the bench is constructed.
 
Arguably the most predictable scenario, or at least the one causing the least amount of change, would include a bench of John Ryan Murphy, Robbie Grossman, Eduardo Escobar, and Danny Santana. If the Twins go that route, they'd be looking to make as few waves as possible, and it's probably the safest bet as well. Although the ceiling for each player isn't high at all, the floor also isn't disastrous for the most part.
 
Getting creative though, there's a real situation in which none, or almost none, of those players go north with the Twins this spring. If Minnesota looks for upside, and some fresh talent, there's a surprise group of four players that could join together. Here's what that may look like:
 
Mitch Garver- Backup Catcher
 
Garver owned a ,764 OPS between Double and Triple-A in 2016. It was a nice offensive showing, and his defense was spectacular. He threw out 52% of would be base stealers in Chattanooga (44 attempts) and caught three of ten runners at Triple-A. Garver is 25 and has never been a household name, but he's pushed himself to the top of the Twins organization when it comes to up and coming backstops.
 
He's a right-handed batter and would give the Twins both a defensive minded option to spell Jason Castro, as well as bringing a respectable bat to the big leagues. It's a pretty big jump for him to go from 22 Triple-A games to the big leagues, so that could definitely work against him. Unless the Twins settle for John Ryan Murphy or Chris Gimenez, Garver absolutely makes a good deal of sense.
 
Ehire Adrianza- SS, 2B, 3B
 
New to the Twins organization, Adrianza has never been lauded as any sort of top prospect. What has been touted this offseason however is his glove, and specifically at shortstop. In a limited sample size, he's produced Andrelton Simmons-esque defensive metrics, and that's something the Twins haven't had for quite some time. Adrianza owns just a .605 OPS in 154 MLB games but he's got a .822 OPS across five Triple-A seasons.
 
Even if he can't bring much to the plate, Adrianza could be vital to the Twins with Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco slated to man the left side of the infield. Pitching could end up struggling to get consistent outs from that side of the diamond, and Adrianza as a fill in or defensive replacement makes a good deal of sense.
 
Zach Granite- OF
 
The Minnesota Twins minor league player of the year would be making his big league debut if he joined the 25 man roster. Granite brings exceptional speed and defense to the big league club, and that's absolutely what separates him from the competition. Last season, as a 23 year old at Double-A, Granite posted a .729 OPS (his best as a pro). More of a singles hitter than a gap guy, Granite got on base and then advanced via the steal. He racked up 56 stolen bases and nearly walked (42) more often than he struck out (43).
 
When comparing Granite to the likes of Robbie Grossman, or even J.B. Shuck, Minnesota gets a fielder that can realistically play all three outfield spots. Granite is above average no matter where he is in the grass, and has the speed to let very little fall in. The big jump from Double-A is worrisome potentially, but as a hitter with a great eye, the on base skills could quickly rival those of Grossman.
 
Byungho Park- 1B/DH
 
Removed from the 40 man roster this offseason, the Twins gave Kennys Vargas the leg up in winning the designated hitter role. He still could fill that spot, but a healthy Park should be expected to be a different player. He struggled with velocity in his first big league season, although a wrist injury could have contributed to that. Park's spring homers thus far have come off of 93 and 96 mph heat, and while he'll still strikeout plenty, that power can play.
 
While Joe Mauer is Gold Glove caliber at 1B, he's not going to be able to play every day. Vargas has been below average defensively, while in roughly the same limited sample, Park has been as asset. He was a quality player in the field over in Korea, and represents a clear upgrade in the field behind Mauer as well.
 
This construction would require the Twins to figure out what to do with the likes of Robbie Grossman, Danny Santana, and Eduardo Escobar. They can save money (roughly $2 million) by moving on from Escobar. Grossman has a smaller deal, and Santana has been a guy that I've contended Minnesota would be best served to move along from for quite some time.
 
The likelihood that this construction plays out if minute at best, but it remains an intriguing group of guys that I believe would serve the Twins well to start 2017. Admittedly the biggest hole here is the lack of a left-handed bat, but given Minnesota's options, it still may represent the most optimal scenario.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Minnesota Twins have now played a handful of games this spring, and with the calendar quickly approaching the middle of March, players will be cut and reassigned to minor league camp shortly. For Paul Molitor's club, squeaking out extra wins on a roster looking to rebound from a tough 2016 is going to be an absolute must. I'm not so convinced there aren't a few surprises in store as to how the bench is constructed.
 
Arguably the most predictable scenario, or at least the one causing the least amount of change, would include a bench of John Ryan Murphy, Robbie Grossman, Eduardo Escobar, and Danny Santana. If the Twins go that route, they'd be looking to make as few waves as possible, and it's probably the safest bet as well. Although the ceiling for each player isn't high at all, the floor also isn't disastrous for the most part.
 
Getting creative though, there's a real situation in which none, or almost none, of those players go north with the Twins this spring. If Minnesota looks for upside, and some fresh talent, there's a surprise group of four players that could join together. Here's what that may look like:
 
Mitch Garver- Backup Catcher
 
Garver owned a ,764 OPS between Double and Triple-A in 2016. It was a nice offensive showing, and his defense was spectacular. He threw out 52% of would be base stealers in Chattanooga (44 attempts) and caught three of ten runners at Triple-A. Garver is 25 and has never been a household name, but he's pushed himself to the top of the Twins organization when it comes to up and coming backstops.
 
He's a right-handed batter and would give the Twins both a defensive minded option to spell Jason Castro, as well as bringing a respectable bat to the big leagues. It's a pretty big jump for him to go from 22 Triple-A games to the big leagues, so that could definitely work against him. Unless the Twins settle for John Ryan Murphy or Chris Gimenez, Garver absolutely makes a good deal of sense.
 
Ehire Adrianza- SS, 2B, 3B
 
New to the Twins organization, Adrianza has never been lauded as any sort of top prospect. What has been touted this offseason however is his glove, and specifically at shortstop. In a limited sample size, he's produced Andrelton Simmons-esque defensive metrics, and that's something the Twins haven't had for quite some time. Adrianza owns just a .605 OPS in 154 MLB games but he's got a .822 OPS across five Triple-A seasons.
 
Even if he can't bring much to the plate, Adrianza could be vital to the Twins with Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco slated to man the left side of the infield. Pitching could end up struggling to get consistent outs from that side of the diamond, and Adrianza as a fill in or defensive replacement makes a good deal of sense.
 
Zach Granite- OF
 
The Minnesota Twins minor league player of the year would be making his big league debut if he joined the 25 man roster. Granite brings exceptional speed and defense to the big league club, and that's absolutely what separates him from the competition. Last season, as a 23 year old at Double-A, Granite posted a .729 OPS (his best as a pro). More of a singles hitter than a gap guy, Granite got on base and then advanced via the steal. He racked up 56 stolen bases and nearly walked (42) more often than he struck out (43).
 
When comparing Granite to the likes of Robbie Grossman, or even J.B. Shuck, Minnesota gets a fielder that can realistically play all three outfield spots. Granite is above average no matter where he is in the grass, and has the speed to let very little fall in. The big jump from Double-A is worrisome potentially, but as a hitter with a great eye, the on base skills could quickly rival those of Grossman.
 
Byungho Park- 1B/DH
 
Removed from the 40 man roster this offseason, the Twins gave Kennys Vargas the leg up in winning the designated hitter role. He still could fill that spot, but a healthy Park should be expected to be a different player. He struggled with velocity in his first big league season, although a wrist injury could have contributed to that. Park's spring homers thus far have come off of 93 and 96 mph heat, and while he'll still strikeout plenty, that power can play.
 
While Joe Mauer is Gold Glove caliber at 1B, he's not going to be able to play every day. Vargas has been below average defensively, while in roughly the same limited sample, Park has been as asset. He was a quality player in the field over in Korea, and represents a clear upgrade in the field behind Mauer as well.
 
This construction would require the Twins to figure out what to do with the likes of Robbie Grossman, Danny Santana, and Eduardo Escobar. They can save money (roughly $2 million) by moving on from Escobar. Grossman has a smaller deal, and Santana has been a guy that I've contended Minnesota would be best served to move along from for quite some time.
 
The likelihood that this construction plays out if minute at best, but it remains an intriguing group of guys that I believe would serve the Twins well to start 2017. Admittedly the biggest hole here is the lack of a left-handed bat, but given Minnesota's options, it still may represent the most optimal scenario.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Last season, the Minnesota Twins jettisoned Ricky Nolasco to the Los Angeles Angeles. The move was widely applauded as it purged Nolasco's contract from Minnesota and got him out of the rotation. What was overlooked however, was that former top prospect Alex Meyer was thrown in, and Hector Santiago was coming back to the Twins.
 
There's no kind way to put it, Nolasco was a disaster in Minnesota. Terry Ryan over-extended himself by spending on starting pitching that had almost no chance of paying off. In trading Nolasco to the Angels though, Minnesota simply took on a similar pitcher. Hector Santiago was awarded $8 million through arbitration, and the club is still paying the Angels $4 million of Nolasco's salary this season. Essentially they gave up Alex Meyer simply to get a team to take Nolasco off their hands.
 
Santiago came over to Minnesota in the midst of a hot streak, and there was some thought he could pitch right around the high water level he'd established. What ended up taking place however, was 11 starts to the tune of a 5.58 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. His strikeout numbers plummeted and he gave up 13 homers in those starts.
 
Although Santiago was an All Star in 2015, his recent career has always had reason for concern. In his All Star campaign, he gave up a league leading 29 homers, and then backed that up with 33 in 2016. He also surrendered a league leading (and career worst) 79 walks last season. For a guy that's never thrown over 182 innings, and owns a 4.84 FIP since 2014, he's got very few things going in his favor.
 
Since his 2011 debut with the White Sox, Santiago's velocity has fallen off as well. Topping out at a 93.8 mph fastball then, he's fallen to hovering right around 90 mph last season, and routinely sitting there is a stretch. His contact rate checked in at 81.8% last season, which was it's highest since 2014. If there's a level of consistency, it's found in Santiago's swing and miss stuff, which has routinely generated an 8% mark throughout his career.
 
The reality though, when looking at the sum of all parts, is that the Twins are going to be asking a lot from a guy they already have cemented into their rotation. There's real reason to believe that Santiago could be among the Twins worst pitchers this season. He serves up dingers at an alarming rate, his velocity has dipped, and his command has waned. He could be helped out by the boost that Jason Castro will serve over Kurt Suzuki, but he's going to need a significant jump.
 
If Santiago wasn't the Twins return for Nolasco, or frankly if he had a different name on the back of his jersey, you'd be able to make a real argument he'd struggle to make this club. Considering top prospect Jose Berrios has little to prove in the minors at this point, running him out there more consistently would provide more long term benefit.
 
As things stand. Paul Molitor and the Twins are going to be forced to choose between Trevor May, Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong, and Nick Tepesch for one spot. There's absolutely some guys in that group that will be filtered out, but on numbers alone, there isn't a reason to suggest Santiago is better than the bulk of the group. Having to settle for him no matter what ties the hands of the Twins rotation a bit, and it was already not in a good place.
 
Maybe everything gets turned on its head, and Santiago's first full year in Minnesota allows him to acclimate and things go incredibly well. Looking at the numbers he's put up, and the way things have trended for him though, that's a pretty big ask. Hector Santiago is going to be in the Twins rotation, but he may just be another form of Ricky Nolasco.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Last season, the Minnesota Twins jettisoned Ricky Nolasco to the Los Angeles Angeles. The move was widely applauded as it purged Nolasco's contract from Minnesota and got him out of the rotation. What was overlooked however, was that former top prospect Alex Meyer was thrown in, and Hector Santiago was coming back to the Twins.
 
There's no kind way to put it, Nolasco was a disaster in Minnesota. Terry Ryan over-extended himself by spending on starting pitching that had almost no chance of paying off. In trading Nolasco to the Angels though, Minnesota simply took on a similar pitcher. Hector Santiago was awarded $8 million through arbitration, and the club is still paying the Angels $4 million of Nolasco's salary this season. Essentially they gave up Alex Meyer simply to get a team to take Nolasco off their hands.
 
Santiago came over to Minnesota in the midst of a hot streak, and there was some thought he could pitch right around the high water level he'd established. What ended up taking place however, was 11 starts to the tune of a 5.58 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. His strikeout numbers plummeted and he gave up 13 homers in those starts.
 
Although Santiago was an All Star in 2015, his recent career has always had reason for concern. In his All Star campaign, he gave up a league leading 29 homers, and then backed that up with 33 in 2016. He also surrendered a league leading (and career worst) 79 walks last season. For a guy that's never thrown over 182 innings, and owns a 4.84 FIP since 2014, he's got very few things going in his favor.
 
Since his 2011 debut with the White Sox, Santiago's velocity has fallen off as well. Topping out at a 93.8 mph fastball then, he's fallen to hovering right around 90 mph last season, and routinely sitting there is a stretch. His contact rate checked in at 81.8% last season, which was it's highest since 2014. If there's a level of consistency, it's found in Santiago's swing and miss stuff, which has routinely generated an 8% mark throughout his career.
 
The reality though, when looking at the sum of all parts, is that the Twins are going to be asking a lot from a guy they already have cemented into their rotation. There's real reason to believe that Santiago could be among the Twins worst pitchers this season. He serves up dingers at an alarming rate, his velocity has dipped, and his command has waned. He could be helped out by the boost that Jason Castro will serve over Kurt Suzuki, but he's going to need a significant jump.
 
If Santiago wasn't the Twins return for Nolasco, or frankly if he had a different name on the back of his jersey, you'd be able to make a real argument he'd struggle to make this club. Considering top prospect Jose Berrios has little to prove in the minors at this point, running him out there more consistently would provide more long term benefit.
 
As things stand. Paul Molitor and the Twins are going to be forced to choose between Trevor May, Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong, and Nick Tepesch for one spot. There's absolutely some guys in that group that will be filtered out, but on numbers alone, there isn't a reason to suggest Santiago is better than the bulk of the group. Having to settle for him no matter what ties the hands of the Twins rotation a bit, and it was already not in a good place.
 
Maybe everything gets turned on its head, and Santiago's first full year in Minnesota allows him to acclimate and things go incredibly well. Looking at the numbers he's put up, and the way things have trended for him though, that's a pretty big ask. Hector Santiago is going to be in the Twins rotation, but he may just be another form of Ricky Nolasco.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Last season, the Minnesota Twins jettisoned Ricky Nolasco to the Los Angeles Angeles. The move was widely applauded as it purged Nolasco's contract from Minnesota and got him out of the rotation. What was overlooked however, was that former top prospect Alex Meyer was thrown in, and Hector Santiago was coming back to the Twins.
 
There's no kind way to put it, Nolasco was a disaster in Minnesota. Terry Ryan over-extended himself by spending on starting pitching that had almost no chance of paying off. In trading Nolasco to the Angels though, Minnesota simply took on a similar pitcher. Hector Santiago was awarded $8 million through arbitration, and the club is still paying the Angels $4 million of Nolasco's salary this season. Essentially they gave up Alex Meyer simply to get a team to take Nolasco off their hands.
 
Santiago came over to Minnesota in the midst of a hot streak, and there was some thought he could pitch right around the high water level he'd established. What ended up taking place however, was 11 starts to the tune of a 5.58 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. His strikeout numbers plummeted and he gave up 13 homers in those starts.
 
Although Santiago was an All Star in 2015, his recent career has always had reason for concern. In his All Star campaign, he gave up a league leading 29 homers, and then backed that up with 33 in 2016. He also surrendered a league leading (and career worst) 79 walks last season. For a guy that's never thrown over 182 innings, and owns a 4.84 FIP since 2014, he's got very few things going in his favor.
 
Since his 2011 debut with the White Sox, Santiago's velocity has fallen off as well. Topping out at a 93.8 mph fastball then, he's fallen to hovering right around 90 mph last season, and routinely sitting there is a stretch. His contact rate checked in at 81.8% last season, which was it's highest since 2014. If there's a level of consistency, it's found in Santiago's swing and miss stuff, which has routinely generated an 8% mark throughout his career.
 
The reality though, when looking at the sum of all parts, is that the Twins are going to be asking a lot from a guy they already have cemented into their rotation. There's real reason to believe that Santiago could be among the Twins worst pitchers this season. He serves up dingers at an alarming rate, his velocity has dipped, and his command has waned. He could be helped out by the boost that Jason Castro will serve over Kurt Suzuki, but he's going to need a significant jump.
 
If Santiago wasn't the Twins return for Nolasco, or frankly if he had a different name on the back of his jersey, you'd be able to make a real argument he'd struggle to make this club. Considering top prospect Jose Berrios has little to prove in the minors at this point, running him out there more consistently would provide more long term benefit.
 
As things stand. Paul Molitor and the Twins are going to be forced to choose between Trevor May, Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong, and Nick Tepesch for one spot. There's absolutely some guys in that group that will be filtered out, but on numbers alone, there isn't a reason to suggest Santiago is better than the bulk of the group. Having to settle for him no matter what ties the hands of the Twins rotation a bit, and it was already not in a good place.
 
Maybe everything gets turned on its head, and Santiago's first full year in Minnesota allows him to acclimate and things go incredibly well. Looking at the numbers he's put up, and the way things have trended for him though, that's a pretty big ask. Hector Santiago is going to be in the Twins rotation, but he may just be another form of Ricky Nolasco.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Last season, the Minnesota Twins jettisoned Ricky Nolasco to the Los Angeles Angeles. The move was widely applauded as it purged Nolasco's contract from Minnesota and got him out of the rotation. What was overlooked however, was that former top prospect Alex Meyer was thrown in, and Hector Santiago was coming back to the Twins.
 
There's no kind way to put it, Nolasco was a disaster in Minnesota. Terry Ryan over-extended himself by spending on starting pitching that had almost no chance of paying off. In trading Nolasco to the Angels though, Minnesota simply took on a similar pitcher. Hector Santiago was awarded $8 million through arbitration, and the club is still paying the Angels $4 million of Nolasco's salary this season. Essentially they gave up Alex Meyer simply to get a team to take Nolasco off their hands.
 
Santiago came over to Minnesota in the midst of a hot streak, and there was some thought he could pitch right around the high water level he'd established. What ended up taking place however, was 11 starts to the tune of a 5.58 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. His strikeout numbers plummeted and he gave up 13 homers in those starts.
 
Although Santiago was an All Star in 2015, his recent career has always had reason for concern. In his All Star campaign, he gave up a league leading 29 homers, and then backed that up with 33 in 2016. He also surrendered a league leading (and career worst) 79 walks last season. For a guy that's never thrown over 182 innings, and owns a 4.84 FIP since 2014, he's got very few things going in his favor.
 
Since his 2011 debut with the White Sox, Santiago's velocity has fallen off as well. Topping out at a 93.8 mph fastball then, he's fallen to hovering right around 90 mph last season, and routinely sitting there is a stretch. His contact rate checked in at 81.8% last season, which was it's highest since 2014. If there's a level of consistency, it's found in Santiago's swing and miss stuff, which has routinely generated an 8% mark throughout his career.
 
The reality though, when looking at the sum of all parts, is that the Twins are going to be asking a lot from a guy they already have cemented into their rotation. There's real reason to believe that Santiago could be among the Twins worst pitchers this season. He serves up dingers at an alarming rate, his velocity has dipped, and his command has waned. He could be helped out by the boost that Jason Castro will serve over Kurt Suzuki, but he's going to need a significant jump.
 
If Santiago wasn't the Twins return for Nolasco, or frankly if he had a different name on the back of his jersey, you'd be able to make a real argument he'd struggle to make this club. Considering top prospect Jose Berrios has little to prove in the minors at this point, running him out there more consistently would provide more long term benefit.
 
As things stand. Paul Molitor and the Twins are going to be forced to choose between Trevor May, Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong, and Nick Tepesch for one spot. There's absolutely some guys in that group that will be filtered out, but on numbers alone, there isn't a reason to suggest Santiago is better than the bulk of the group. Having to settle for him no matter what ties the hands of the Twins rotation a bit, and it was already not in a good place.
 
Maybe everything gets turned on its head, and Santiago's first full year in Minnesota allows him to acclimate and things go incredibly well. Looking at the numbers he's put up, and the way things have trended for him though, that's a pretty big ask. Hector Santiago is going to be in the Twins rotation, but he may just be another form of Ricky Nolasco.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Last season, the Minnesota Twins jettisoned Ricky Nolasco to the Los Angeles Angeles. The move was widely applauded as it purged Nolasco's contract from Minnesota and got him out of the rotation. What was overlooked however, was that former top prospect Alex Meyer was thrown in, and Hector Santiago was coming back to the Twins.
 
There's no kind way to put it, Nolasco was a disaster in Minnesota. Terry Ryan over-extended himself by spending on starting pitching that had almost no chance of paying off. In trading Nolasco to the Angels though, Minnesota simply took on a similar pitcher. Hector Santiago was awarded $8 million through arbitration, and the club is still paying the Angels $4 million of Nolasco's salary this season. Essentially they gave up Alex Meyer simply to get a team to take Nolasco off their hands.
 
Santiago came over to Minnesota in the midst of a hot streak, and there was some thought he could pitch right around the high water level he'd established. What ended up taking place however, was 11 starts to the tune of a 5.58 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. His strikeout numbers plummeted and he gave up 13 homers in those starts.
 
Although Santiago was an All Star in 2015, his recent career has always had reason for concern. In his All Star campaign, he gave up a league leading 29 homers, and then backed that up with 33 in 2016. He also surrendered a league leading (and career worst) 79 walks last season. For a guy that's never thrown over 182 innings, and owns a 4.84 FIP since 2014, he's got very few things going in his favor.
 
Since his 2011 debut with the White Sox, Santiago's velocity has fallen off as well. Topping out at a 93.8 mph fastball then, he's fallen to hovering right around 90 mph last season, and routinely sitting there is a stretch. His contact rate checked in at 81.8% last season, which was it's highest since 2014. If there's a level of consistency, it's found in Santiago's swing and miss stuff, which has routinely generated an 8% mark throughout his career.
 
The reality though, when looking at the sum of all parts, is that the Twins are going to be asking a lot from a guy they already have cemented into their rotation. There's real reason to believe that Santiago could be among the Twins worst pitchers this season. He serves up dingers at an alarming rate, his velocity has dipped, and his command has waned. He could be helped out by the boost that Jason Castro will serve over Kurt Suzuki, but he's going to need a significant jump.
 
If Santiago wasn't the Twins return for Nolasco, or frankly if he had a different name on the back of his jersey, you'd be able to make a real argument he'd struggle to make this club. Considering top prospect Jose Berrios has little to prove in the minors at this point, running him out there more consistently would provide more long term benefit.
 
As things stand. Paul Molitor and the Twins are going to be forced to choose between Trevor May, Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong, and Nick Tepesch for one spot. There's absolutely some guys in that group that will be filtered out, but on numbers alone, there isn't a reason to suggest Santiago is better than the bulk of the group. Having to settle for him no matter what ties the hands of the Twins rotation a bit, and it was already not in a good place.
 
Maybe everything gets turned on its head, and Santiago's first full year in Minnesota allows him to acclimate and things go incredibly well. Looking at the numbers he's put up, and the way things have trended for him though, that's a pretty big ask. Hector Santiago is going to be in the Twins rotation, but he may just be another form of Ricky Nolasco.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Minnesota Twins are nearly certain they'll start Jorge Polanco at shortstop to open the 2017 season. He played over 400 innings there in 2016, and with Brian Dozier remaining within the organization, there isn't realistic room to shift Polanco to the other side of second base. The question is, can his bat elevate him high enough to overcome his defensive inefficiency?
 
Under Paul Molitor last season, Polanco started 45 games at shortstop. Prior to that, the last time he played shortstop was for a 19 game stint at Triple-A Rochester in 2015. Recently, Molitor was asked why a guy they relied upon so heavily, wasn't given a better opportunity to succeed. On Polanco not playing shortstop in the minors last season, the Twins skipper told Phil Miller of the Star Tribune, "I wish I had a better explanation, we didn't handle it the right way."
 
That's an answer that could be used all too often for some of Molitor's roster and lineup decisions a season ago, but it's one that needs to be phased out in the coming season. For a Twins club that should be looking at defense as the linchpin to growth, making sure guys are well positioned and prepared is a must. For Polanco though, it's worth wondering just how much can be done.
 
Prior to the 2016 season, Polanco showed up on both Baseball American and MLB.com's Top 100 prospect lists. He was primarily a second basemen, and has been widely regarded as a bat first guy. Across seven minor league seasons, the young Dominican owns a .757 OPS backed by a strong .286 average and .346 OBP. He's never going to hit for much power, but as a gap guy with speed, he'll stretch extra bases plenty. It's always seemed that second would be his home however, and that coexisting with Brian Dozier was unlikely.
 
A year ago, Polanco turned in 406 innings at short. He racked up a -8 DRS and committed 11 errors. It wasn't quite a Danny Santana level of futility (-15 DRS 16 E in 578.1 innings during 2015), but it was well down that path. Polanco's range was a serious detriment for the Twins (-10.9 UZR) as well, and it's probably fair to wonder if taking poor routes to compensate for a noted lack of arm strength wasn't part of the issue.
 
All things considered, expecting Polanco to win a Gold Glove playing shortstop is not a likely proposition. For Minnesota though, that really shouldn't be the goal. What they need to see happen is Polanco land somewhere in the average territory, and we can find a relative group of what that may look like.
 
In 2016, only five players (with 400+ innings) had worse DRS numbers at short than Polanco. Alexei Ramirez (-20), Brad Miller (-14), and Jordy Mercer (-9) all played for losing clubs. Both Xander Bogaerts (-10) and Didi Gregorious (-9) played on teams with winning records, and their bats spoke loudly for them. At the top of the shortstop DRS list resides the likes of Addison Russell (19) and Brandon Crawford (19). The middle ground is something in the -3 to 0 range.
 
Seven shortstops fall within -3 to 0 DRS having played over 400 innings. They include Carlos Correa, Chris Owings, Aledmys Diaz, Elvis Andrus, Ketel Marte, Orlando Arcia, and Corey Seager. Of that group, only Owings' Diamondbacks and Arcia's Brewers had losing seasons. There's also a decent contingent of solid hitters in that bunch, allowing them to contribute to their club's offensive production as well.
 
For Jorge Polanco, finding a way to get to the middle ground is a must. He can't continue to post the 6th worst DRS numbers in the big leagues, and he has to put up a better UZR than the 5th worst mark in baseball. By now we know that the position puts a strain on him with a lack of arm strength, and honestly, being miscast as a fit. Although he's not going to hit like Bogaerts, a Gregorious-esque (.276/.304/.447) slash line seems more than doable. With a few minor tweaks, rounding himself into a more complete player would help the Twins out substantially.
 
In 2017, the Twins are going to win more games simply because of minor tweaks. Jason Castro elevates the pitching staff, and a consistent outfield of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler provide a massive defensive boost. Polanco needs to raise the water mark by elevating his play just a little, even if he's still somewhat of a liability. The bat has never been the concern, and it's time to make the glove less of one.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Going into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, it stands to reason that the Minnesota Twins will more than likely employ a similar 25 man roster construction. That means there'd be places for 12 pitchers and 13 position players. Given in are in the starting lineup, the four vying to fill out the bench provide some questions for Paul Molitor and his club.
 
Two of those bench spots are immediately claimed by the backup catcher (see Mitch Garver, John Ryan Murphy, or Chris Gimenez) and a fourth outfielder (Robbie Grossman or Eddie Rosario). With just two openings left, the Twins need to incorporate a defensive focus, some sort of base running threat, and realistically cannot ignore offensive production completely. Utility men would be great fits for either of those spots, but unfortunately for Minnesota, they have three players in the mix.
 
Danny Santana probably comes to mind first. He burst onto the scene thanks in large part to a mirage of a rookie season. His BABIP created unrealistic watermarks, and his career has spiraled since. Although he's played the most positions of the possible options, he occupies no ground on the field while being a positive defensive asset. I took a deeper dive into what Santana brings to the table in this piece, but right now he has to be the odd man out. Although Minnesota obviously appreciates his flexibility, it stands to reason his level of asset is simply the lowest.
 
That brings us to Eduardo Escobar. From 2014-2015, Escobar played in 260 games for the Twins owning a .737 OPS at the dish. While his OBP (.312) left something to be desired, he showed a little pop with his 18 homers, and was of value offensively. In the field, Escobar spent the majority of his time at shortstop, and went from -6 DRS in 2014 to +2 DRS in 2015. He's never completely sold us on the part that he's an every day player, but as a utility man that profiles at short and can play two other infield spots, it looked to make sense.
 
Last season however, Escobar through a wrench into his future with what was a significant step backwards. His OPS plummeted to a paltry .618, and he totaled -7 DRS in 579 innings at short. No longer a defensive or offensive asset, Escobar had simply become a below replacement level player. On a new arbitration contract with the Twins this season though, it appears the club is banking on that being an outlier, and it's probably a decent bet.
 
Rounding out the trio is the recently acquired Ehire Adrianza. Coming over from the San Francisco Giants (and briefly, the Milwaukee Brewers), Adrianza is virtually all glove. Despite the small sample size, he's regarded in the Andrelton Simmons level of leather at shortstop, and that's something that the Twins simply don't have anywhere on their roster. Given the likelihood that Jorge Polanco struggles defensively, Adrianza would stand to look otherworldly in the field.
 
With the bat, Adrianza owns just a .605 career OPS and is coming off his best season in which he totaled a .679 OPS in 40 games with the Giants. He has just 17 extra base hits in 154 big league games, and gap power is something that will likely always elude him. Down at Triple-A though, Adrianza has compiled an .822 OPS in just over 100 games being virtually the same singles hitter. He has speed, although he doesn't typically steal a ton of bases, and that can probably play on both sides of the ball.
 
For Molitor and the Twins, the decision likely comes down to whether or not they can handle a glove only bench player. Escobar, despite his poor 2016, should be a lock, and that leaves it a competition between Santana and Adrianza. The former can stand at multiple positions but play none, while the latter plays infield spectacularly but can't hit a lick.
 
As noted above, with question marks already surrounding Polanco's ability to cope at short, Adrianza seems like an ideal fit. Minnesota was beaten badly around the ballyard a season ago in large part due to poor defense. Having such an asset ready and waiting off the bench seems to make a lot of sense. Expect this to be sorted out as Spring Training draws on down in Fort Myers.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Let me preface with the reality that fandom comes in different shapes and sizes. I realize there are those that are more casual observers, and there are diehards. There are those who watch the game, and then there are those that know the game. Simply defining someone watching Minnesota Twins baseball as a fan doesn't do the categorization justice. When it comes to the 2017 home nine though, there seems to be a growing and unfortunate confusion.
 
Arguably the most frustrating notion is that this team is destined to be bad because, well, they lost 103 games last season. That's absolutely a fact regarding the loss total, outside of that, the statement couldn't be less confusing. Given the Twins emerged from nowhere in 2015 and won 83 games finishing 2nd in the AL Central, how can that be immediately dismissed?
 
In 2016, Paul Molitor had virtually the same starting infield as he did the year prior (save for Eduardo Escobar replacing Danny Santana at shortstop). He had a new outfield that consisted of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario as opposed to the 2015 contingent of Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter. Picking up the extra at bats as the designated hitter was Byungho Park instead of the replaced Kennys Vargas from 2015. As a whole, the Opening Day lineup remained a virtual clone.
 
On the mound, Tyler Duffey replaced Mike Pelfrey in the big league rotation. The bullpen was thrown together with relatively similar pieces, and Molitor had a couple of new coaches at his disposal. What held true though was that nothing was truly groundbreaking.
 
Here's the thing though, in 2015 the Twins overachieved significantly. Virtually all metrics suggested regression was coming, and the fact of the matter was there were too many placeholders to simply fill all of the holes. If 2015 gave you as a fan hope for 2016, you were likely as misguided as suggesting 2016 is a precursor for the season to come.
 
So Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano are prospects you've heard about forever and haven't produced to the level you perceived? Is it incredibly surprising that a 22 year-old and two 23 year-old's are taking a bit longer to adjust at the big league level? Of course it isn't. Sano already has 40 career homers under his belt, Berrios has made a handful of starts, and Buxton is already playing Gold Glove caliber defense. At 23 years old, Kirby Puckett was at Single-A and Johan Santana was a reliever with a career 5.90 ERA.
 
Exposure has given us a heightened level of insight into young prospects. There's lists, articles, Twitter, and countless other sources of information for the game's next stars. You may hear about a player earlier, but that doesn't change the adjustment period, or the reality that knowledge beyond those sources is key to understanding how quickly a kid may take to a man's game.
 
Rounding out the trio of complaints is the one that encompasses both the overlooking of past results, and well as current roster construction. Why didn't Derek Falvey and Thad Levine come in and do more this offseason? The long and short of it is that they didn't have to. Both astute baseball minds, they realize this club is going to need to be carried by the likes of the Sano's and Buxton's. Signing a big bat, or a major arm, prior to the young guys being ready to shoulder more of the load, is a wasted year.
 
Going into the offseason, I suggested multiple times that standing pat would be a good place for the Twins. I was interested in Wilson Ramos pre-injury. Jason Castro emerged, and then made immediate sense. He helps to address pitching and defense, is a low cost signing, and can hit at least to the level Kurt Suzuki was capable of. Outside of that, a throw in reliever until some of the young arms made sense. Minnesota has really strong relief prospects, and blocking them with significant retread veterans never would have been a good idea.
 
Right now, the Twins executed everything as they needed to, and really, it's on you to see that. There's no one suggesting this club is making the playoffs, and even a .500 record would be a nice bonus. They aren't close to a 59 win team though, and the reasoning is relatively simple. The youth will continue to develop, and banking on those names you've heard forever to be stars is still a good bet. Finally, when it comes time to supplement with outside talent (and Minnesota is close to that point), then Falvey and Levine will be aware of the fact they are building, and not rebuilding.
 
Don't miss the boat, and don't throw out baseless frustration. Whether comment sections, casual discussion, Twitter, or some other place is your stomping ground, have a little foundation to stand upon when considering what is being brought to the table. Baseball is a sport that allows you to consume it in multiple different ways. Understanding that opinions are also a reflection of that is a must.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Let me preface with the reality that fandom comes in different shapes and sizes. I realize there are those that are more casual observers, and there are diehards. There are those who watch the game, and then there are those that know the game. Simply defining someone watching Minnesota Twins baseball as a fan doesn't do the categorization justice. When it comes to the 2017 home nine though, there seems to be a growing and unfortunate confusion.
 
Arguably the most frustrating notion is that this team is destined to be bad because, well, they lost 103 games last season. That's absolutely a fact regarding the loss total, outside of that, the statement couldn't be less confusing. Given the Twins emerged from nowhere in 2015 and won 83 games finishing 2nd in the AL Central, how can that be immediately dismissed?
 
In 2016, Paul Molitor had virtually the same starting infield as he did the year prior (save for Eduardo Escobar replacing Danny Santana at shortstop). He had a new outfield that consisted of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario as opposed to the 2015 contingent of Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter. Picking up the extra at bats as the designated hitter was Byungho Park instead of the replaced Kennys Vargas from 2015. As a whole, the Opening Day lineup remained a virtual clone.
 
On the mound, Tyler Duffey replaced Mike Pelfrey in the big league rotation. The bullpen was thrown together with relatively similar pieces, and Molitor had a couple of new coaches at his disposal. What held true though was that nothing was truly groundbreaking.
 
Here's the thing though, in 2015 the Twins overachieved significantly. Virtually all metrics suggested regression was coming, and the fact of the matter was there were too many placeholders to simply fill all of the holes. If 2015 gave you as a fan hope for 2016, you were likely as misguided as suggesting 2016 is a precursor for the season to come.
 
So Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano are prospects you've heard about forever and haven't produced to the level you perceived? Is it incredibly surprising that a 22 year-old and two 23 year-old's are taking a bit longer to adjust at the big league level? Of course it isn't. Sano already has 40 career homers under his belt, Berrios has made a handful of starts, and Buxton is already playing Gold Glove caliber defense. At 23 years old, Kirby Puckett was at Single-A and Johan Santana was a reliever with a career 5.90 ERA.
 
Exposure has given us a heightened level of insight into young prospects. There's lists, articles, Twitter, and countless other sources of information for the game's next stars. You may hear about a player earlier, but that doesn't change the adjustment period, or the reality that knowledge beyond those sources is key to understanding how quickly a kid may take to a man's game.
 
Rounding out the trio of complaints is the one that encompasses both the overlooking of past results, and well as current roster construction. Why didn't Derek Falvey and Thad Levine come in and do more this offseason? The long and short of it is that they didn't have to. Both astute baseball minds, they realize this club is going to need to be carried by the likes of the Sano's and Buxton's. Signing a big bat, or a major arm, prior to the young guys being ready to shoulder more of the load, is a wasted year.
 
Going into the offseason, I suggested multiple times that standing pat would be a good place for the Twins. I was interested in Wilson Ramos pre-injury. Jason Castro emerged, and then made immediate sense. He helps to address pitching and defense, is a low cost signing, and can hit at least to the level Kurt Suzuki was capable of. Outside of that, a throw in reliever until some of the young arms made sense. Minnesota has really strong relief prospects, and blocking them with significant retread veterans never would have been a good idea.
 
Right now, the Twins executed everything as they needed to, and really, it's on you to see that. There's no one suggesting this club is making the playoffs, and even a .500 record would be a nice bonus. They aren't close to a 59 win team though, and the reasoning is relatively simple. The youth will continue to develop, and banking on those names you've heard forever to be stars is still a good bet. Finally, when it comes time to supplement with outside talent (and Minnesota is close to that point), then Falvey and Levine will be aware of the fact they are building, and not rebuilding.
 
Don't miss the boat, and don't throw out baseless frustration. Whether comment sections, casual discussion, Twitter, or some other place is your stomping ground, have a little foundation to stand upon when considering what is being brought to the table. Baseball is a sport that allows you to consume it in multiple different ways. Understanding that opinions are also a reflection of that is a must.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Coming over for Ben Revere from the Philadelphia Phillies, Trevor May was the headliner of a trade made in the same offseason that the Minnesota Twins acquired former prospect Alex Meyer. May was projected to be a solid starter in the rotation, and was someone that should be counted on to contribute for quite some time. After splitting duties between starting and relieving, May seems the odds on favorite to round out Paul Molitor's starting rotation in 2017.
 
In 2016, May pitched exclusively as a reliever turning in 42.2 IP. He compiled a 5.27 ERA along with a 3.80 FIP. The production was backed by a strong 12.7 K/9 and a less than ideal 3.6 BB/9. As a reliever, May's velocity and strikeouts both predictably received a nice bump. What was the largest downside however, was a guy that was being asked to get ready much more quickly than he had ever experienced before. The unfortunate side effect was a nagging back issue that sidelined May for portions of the 2016 season.
 
If for no other reason than to get him healthy and productive, moving May out of the pen makes sense. Then there's the reality that there may actually be another reason. May could actually be a calming presence in the Twins rotation.
 
He made nine starts in his big league debut season in 2014, and followed that up with another 16 starts in 2015. While there was obviously a transition period out of the gate, May settled in somewhat during 2015. He tallied a 4.43 ERA that was backed by a better FIP and a 7.9 K/9. While not the dominating strikeout force starting as he is relieving, he still posts numbers that rank among the Twins best.
 
Ideally, the Twins would like to see May improve upon the .772 OPS he allowed opposing hitters while starting in 2015. That number can somewhat be explained by the 13 triples and home runs (5/8 respectively) that he surrendered in just 83.1 IP.
 
Working as a starter, May's fastball sits around 92 miles per hour, and his slider registers right around 10 mph slower. He is primarily a fastball thrower, but mixes in offspeed right around one-third of the time. If he can jump his swinging strike rate a bit higher than the 10% it sits at while he's starting, May could keep opposing batters off balance a bit more. Also, as a starter, he allowed contact right around 84% of the time. Turning a few more batted balls into soft or medium contact would go a long ways to help his cause as well.
 
Trying to project completely what May is as a starter for the Twins is a difficult task. He's bounced between roles too often, and really a total of 25 starts over the past three years is hardly being able to settle into anything. That being said, a clean bill of health, a bit more consistency, and a perceived level of stability add up to someone that should be a solid addition for Molitor's group.
 
I wouldn't expect Trevor May to push for a Cy Young any time soon, and he may not put up the flashiest numbers, but 2017 could well be his strongest season at the big league level.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Let me preface with the reality that fandom comes in different shapes and sizes. I realize there are those that are more casual observers, and there are diehards. There are those who watch the game, and then there are those that know the game. Simply defining someone watching Minnesota Twins baseball as a fan doesn't do the categorization justice. When it comes to the 2017 home nine though, there seems to be a growing and unfortunate confusion.
 
Arguably the most frustrating notion is that this team is destined to be bad because, well, they lost 103 games last season. That's absolutely a fact regarding the loss total, outside of that, the statement couldn't be less confusing. Given the Twins emerged from nowhere in 2015 and won 83 games finishing 2nd in the AL Central, how can that be immediately dismissed?
 
In 2016, Paul Molitor had virtually the same starting infield as he did the year prior (save for Eduardo Escobar replacing Danny Santana at shortstop). He had a new outfield that consisted of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario as opposed to the 2015 contingent of Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter. Picking up the extra at bats as the designated hitter was Byungho Park instead of the replaced Kennys Vargas from 2015. As a whole, the Opening Day lineup remained a virtual clone.
 
On the mound, Tyler Duffey replaced Mike Pelfrey in the big league rotation. The bullpen was thrown together with relatively similar pieces, and Molitor had a couple of new coaches at his disposal. What held true though was that nothing was truly groundbreaking.
 
Here's the thing though, in 2015 the Twins overachieved significantly. Virtually all metrics suggested regression was coming, and the fact of the matter was there were too many placeholders to simply fill all of the holes. If 2015 gave you as a fan hope for 2016, you were likely as misguided as suggesting 2016 is a precursor for the season to come.
 
So Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano are prospects you've heard about forever and haven't produced to the level you perceived? Is it incredibly surprising that a 22 year-old and two 23 year-old's are taking a bit longer to adjust at the big league level? Of course it isn't. Sano already has 40 career homers under his belt, Berrios has made a handful of starts, and Buxton is already playing Gold Glove caliber defense. At 23 years old, Kirby Puckett was at Single-A and Johan Santana was a reliever with a career 5.90 ERA.
 
Exposure has given us a heightened level of insight into young prospects. There's lists, articles, Twitter, and countless other sources of information for the game's next stars. You may hear about a player earlier, but that doesn't change the adjustment period, or the reality that knowledge beyond those sources is key to understanding how quickly a kid may take to a man's game.
 
Rounding out the trio of complaints is the one that encompasses both the overlooking of past results, and well as current roster construction. Why didn't Derek Falvey and Thad Levine come in and do more this offseason? The long and short of it is that they didn't have to. Both astute baseball minds, they realize this club is going to need to be carried by the likes of the Sano's and Buxton's. Signing a big bat, or a major arm, prior to the young guys being ready to shoulder more of the load, is a wasted year.
 
Going into the offseason, I suggested multiple times that standing pat would be a good place for the Twins. I was interested in Wilson Ramos pre-injury. Jason Castro emerged, and then made immediate sense. He helps to address pitching and defense, is a low cost signing, and can hit at least to the level Kurt Suzuki was capable of. Outside of that, a throw in reliever until some of the young arms made sense. Minnesota has really strong relief prospects, and blocking them with significant retread veterans never would have been a good idea.
 
Right now, the Twins executed everything as they needed to, and really, it's on you to see that. There's no one suggesting this club is making the playoffs, and even a .500 record would be a nice bonus. They aren't close to a 59 win team though, and the reasoning is relatively simple. The youth will continue to develop, and banking on those names you've heard forever to be stars is still a good bet. Finally, when it comes time to supplement with outside talent (and Minnesota is close to that point), then Falvey and Levine will be aware of the fact they are building, and not rebuilding.
 
Don't miss the boat, and don't throw out baseless frustration. Whether comment sections, casual discussion, Twitter, or some other place is your stomping ground, have a little foundation to stand upon when considering what is being brought to the table. Baseball is a sport that allows you to consume it in multiple different ways. Understanding that opinions are also a reflection of that is a must.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Let me preface with the reality that fandom comes in different shapes and sizes. I realize there are those that are more casual observers, and there are diehards. There are those who watch the game, and then there are those that know the game. Simply defining someone watching Minnesota Twins baseball as a fan doesn't do the categorization justice. When it comes to the 2017 home nine though, there seems to be a growing and unfortunate confusion.
 
Arguably the most frustrating notion is that this team is destined to be bad because, well, they lost 103 games last season. That's absolutely a fact regarding the loss total, outside of that, the statement couldn't be less confusing. Given the Twins emerged from nowhere in 2015 and won 83 games finishing 2nd in the AL Central, how can that be immediately dismissed?
 
In 2016, Paul Molitor had virtually the same starting infield as he did the year prior (save for Eduardo Escobar replacing Danny Santana at shortstop). He had a new outfield that consisted of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario as opposed to the 2015 contingent of Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter. Picking up the extra at bats as the designated hitter was Byungho Park instead of the replaced Kennys Vargas from 2015. As a whole, the Opening Day lineup remained a virtual clone.
 
On the mound, Tyler Duffey replaced Mike Pelfrey in the big league rotation. The bullpen was thrown together with relatively similar pieces, and Molitor had a couple of new coaches at his disposal. What held true though was that nothing was truly groundbreaking.
 
Here's the thing though, in 2015 the Twins overachieved significantly. Virtually all metrics suggested regression was coming, and the fact of the matter was there were too many placeholders to simply fill all of the holes. If 2015 gave you as a fan hope for 2016, you were likely as misguided as suggesting 2016 is a precursor for the season to come.
 
So Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano are prospects you've heard about forever and haven't produced to the level you perceived? Is it incredibly surprising that a 22 year-old and two 23 year-old's are taking a bit longer to adjust at the big league level? Of course it isn't. Sano already has 40 career homers under his belt, Berrios has made a handful of starts, and Buxton is already playing Gold Glove caliber defense. At 23 years old, Kirby Puckett was at Single-A and Johan Santana was a reliever with a career 5.90 ERA.
 
Exposure has given us a heightened level of insight into young prospects. There's lists, articles, Twitter, and countless other sources of information for the game's next stars. You may hear about a player earlier, but that doesn't change the adjustment period, or the reality that knowledge beyond those sources is key to understanding how quickly a kid may take to a man's game.
 
Rounding out the trio of complaints is the one that encompasses both the overlooking of past results, and well as current roster construction. Why didn't Derek Falvey and Thad Levine come in and do more this offseason? The long and short of it is that they didn't have to. Both astute baseball minds, they realize this club is going to need to be carried by the likes of the Sano's and Buxton's. Signing a big bat, or a major arm, prior to the young guys being ready to shoulder more of the load, is a wasted year.
 
Going into the offseason, I suggested multiple times that standing pat would be a good place for the Twins. I was interested in Wilson Ramos pre-injury. Jason Castro emerged, and then made immediate sense. He helps to address pitching and defense, is a low cost signing, and can hit at least to the level Kurt Suzuki was capable of. Outside of that, a throw in reliever until some of the young arms made sense. Minnesota has really strong relief prospects, and blocking them with significant retread veterans never would have been a good idea.
 
Right now, the Twins executed everything as they needed to, and really, it's on you to see that. There's no one suggesting this club is making the playoffs, and even a .500 record would be a nice bonus. They aren't close to a 59 win team though, and the reasoning is relatively simple. The youth will continue to develop, and banking on those names you've heard forever to be stars is still a good bet. Finally, when it comes time to supplement with outside talent (and Minnesota is close to that point), then Falvey and Levine will be aware of the fact they are building, and not rebuilding.
 
Don't miss the boat, and don't throw out baseless frustration. Whether comment sections, casual discussion, Twitter, or some other place is your stomping ground, have a little foundation to stand upon when considering what is being brought to the table. Baseball is a sport that allows you to consume it in multiple different ways. Understanding that opinions are also a reflection of that is a must.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Let me preface with the reality that fandom comes in different shapes and sizes. I realize there are those that are more casual observers, and there are diehards. There are those who watch the game, and then there are those that know the game. Simply defining someone watching Minnesota Twins baseball as a fan doesn't do the categorization justice. When it comes to the 2017 home nine though, there seems to be a growing and unfortunate confusion.
 
Arguably the most frustrating notion is that this team is destined to be bad because, well, they lost 103 games last season. That's absolutely a fact regarding the loss total, outside of that, the statement couldn't be less confusing. Given the Twins emerged from nowhere in 2015 and won 83 games finishing 2nd in the AL Central, how can that be immediately dismissed?
 
In 2016, Paul Molitor had virtually the same starting infield as he did the year prior (save for Eduardo Escobar replacing Danny Santana at shortstop). He had a new outfield that consisted of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario as opposed to the 2015 contingent of Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter. Picking up the extra at bats as the designated hitter was Byungho Park instead of the replaced Kennys Vargas from 2015. As a whole, the Opening Day lineup remained a virtual clone.
 
On the mound, Tyler Duffey replaced Mike Pelfrey in the big league rotation. The bullpen was thrown together with relatively similar pieces, and Molitor had a couple of new coaches at his disposal. What held true though was that nothing was truly groundbreaking.
 
Here's the thing though, in 2015 the Twins overachieved significantly. Virtually all metrics suggested regression was coming, and the fact of the matter was there were too many placeholders to simply fill all of the holes. If 2015 gave you as a fan hope for 2016, you were likely as misguided as suggesting 2016 is a precursor for the season to come.
 
So Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano are prospects you've heard about forever and haven't produced to the level you perceived? Is it incredibly surprising that a 22 year-old and two 23 year-old's are taking a bit longer to adjust at the big league level? Of course it isn't. Sano already has 40 career homers under his belt, Berrios has made a handful of starts, and Buxton is already playing Gold Glove caliber defense. At 23 years old, Kirby Puckett was at Single-A and Johan Santana was a reliever with a career 5.90 ERA.
 
Exposure has given us a heightened level of insight into young prospects. There's lists, articles, Twitter, and countless other sources of information for the game's next stars. You may hear about a player earlier, but that doesn't change the adjustment period, or the reality that knowledge beyond those sources is key to understanding how quickly a kid may take to a man's game.
 
Rounding out the trio of complaints is the one that encompasses both the overlooking of past results, and well as current roster construction. Why didn't Derek Falvey and Thad Levine come in and do more this offseason? The long and short of it is that they didn't have to. Both astute baseball minds, they realize this club is going to need to be carried by the likes of the Sano's and Buxton's. Signing a big bat, or a major arm, prior to the young guys being ready to shoulder more of the load, is a wasted year.
 
Going into the offseason, I suggested multiple times that standing pat would be a good place for the Twins. I was interested in Wilson Ramos pre-injury. Jason Castro emerged, and then made immediate sense. He helps to address pitching and defense, is a low cost signing, and can hit at least to the level Kurt Suzuki was capable of. Outside of that, a throw in reliever until some of the young arms made sense. Minnesota has really strong relief prospects, and blocking them with significant retread veterans never would have been a good idea.
 
Right now, the Twins executed everything as they needed to, and really, it's on you to see that. There's no one suggesting this club is making the playoffs, and even a .500 record would be a nice bonus. They aren't close to a 59 win team though, and the reasoning is relatively simple. The youth will continue to develop, and banking on those names you've heard forever to be stars is still a good bet. Finally, when it comes time to supplement with outside talent (and Minnesota is close to that point), then Falvey and Levine will be aware of the fact they are building, and not rebuilding.
 
Don't miss the boat, and don't throw out baseless frustration. Whether comment sections, casual discussion, Twitter, or some other place is your stomping ground, have a little foundation to stand upon when considering what is being brought to the table. Baseball is a sport that allows you to consume it in multiple different ways. Understanding that opinions are also a reflection of that is a must.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz