Ted Schwerzler

Despite the injuries that have stunted his progress and disrupted the value he's provided the team, Royce Lewis is one of the most explosive Twins players in recent memory. Can the team find a number they're willing to pay, that will also convince Lewis (and agent Scott Boras) to sign on the line? Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports The Minnesota Twins selected Royce Lewis with the first overall pick in the 2017 Major League Baseball Draft. He was immediately a top-100 prospect, and seen as an athletic freak who would certainly influence the game at whatever level he competed. His road to the big leagues has been winding, but he’s here, and he looks incredible. Having had a more productive start to his career than almost anyone in history, Lewis is in position to get extremely rich, if he can just stay a little bit more healthy. The Minnesota Twins would love to wrap up his services for the next decade. Lewis will become arbitration-eligible as a Super Two player after this season, and he'll be a free agent in the fall of 2028, after his age-29 season. Should the Twins approach Lewis and Boras about a contract extension, the discussion would be something in the realm of a 10-year deal. That would take Lewis through his age-35 season and buy out the entirety of his arbitration, as well as six years of free agency. Certainly, that’s not going to come cheap, but they do have some leverage. Despite making his major-league debut in 2022, Lewis has played a total of just 91 big-league games. Having dealt with multiple ACL injuries, an oblique strain, a hamstring strain, and a significant quad strain, the toll taken on his young frame is considerable. How he ages in that regard remains to be seen, and paying so much, well ahead of time would constitute the Twins buying virtually all of the risk--in exchange for getting his potential value at a significant discount. Finding a comp for Lewis is difficult. The Arizona Diamondbacks extended Corbin Carroll on an eight-year deal just 32 games into his major-league career, but Carroll is 23 years old. Julio Rodríguez got a 12-year deal last season at 22 years old, but was coming off a Rookie of the Year award. Bobby Witt Jr. signed an 11-year deal this offseason that will pay him $288 million, and he just recently turned 24 years old. The range of outcomes for Lewis on both years and dollars is vast. Fixing that spectrum of possibilities by agreeing on a single number is tough. We can roughly project what Lewis has a chance to make in arbitration over four seasons; it should come in around $50 million. For six seasons at free-agent rates, you'd expect a player of his caliber to make almost $200 million. Obviously, the Twins are in no position to hand out a $250-million extension right now, but here's where we factor in the discount Lewis and Boras would have to accept to get a deal done, thereby avoiding the risk that further injury would significantly dampen the superstar's earning potential. Instead of forking over $50 million in the next four years, a deal should see the Twins pay only about $40 million, and over the six years after that, they should be willing to shell out $150 million. That comes out to 10 years and $190 million. Whether that would move the needle enough for Lewis, or for Boras (who likes to entertain free agency in an effort to maximize earnings), remains to be seen. Aaron Judge debuted late, similarly to Lewis, and has dealt with injuries. He had a substantially greater track record by the time he reached free agency, of course, and his historic 2022 timed out nicely for him, but he inked a nine-year deal worth $360 million to stay in New York. That sort of money is something an extension candidate would be passing up, but they are handed much more certainty at the forefront of their careers. For now, Lewis continues to make the major-league minimum of $746k in 2024. He can start to truly cash in next year, though, and he did sign for a $6.725 million bonus when drafted. It may be of interest to the talented third baseman to lock down a payday early on and settle in with an organization he has said he loves. Pairing Lewis with Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Pablo López into the future seems like a great plan of attack. There is a possibility that Lewis intends to bet on himself and his health, and despite being 30 years old when he would hit free agency, a gigantic deal will be out there for any player producing at the pace he has shown thus far. The question is whether he can get to that point healthy enough to merit such a deal. No matter what, for an ownership group that seems intent on limiting payroll and being cautious into the future, finding every way possible to generate cost control on their greatest assets is a must. Like Buxton before him, Lewis presents a tantalizing possibility to do just that. View full article

The Minnesota Twins farm system saw a promotion of one of their top arms on Thursday, and the organization still turned in a handful of strong performances. The lower levels grabbed a handful of wins as well. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints CURRENT W-L Records Minnesota Twins: 45-36 St. Paul Saints: 40-37 Wichita Wind Surge: 32-30 Cedar Rapids Kernels: 41-29 Fort Myers Mighty Mussels: 36-35 FCL Twins: 18-19 DSL Twins: 9-9 TRANSACTIONS RHP David Festa contract selected by Minnesota Twins. RHP Ronny Henriquez optioned to St. Paul. RHP Jay Jackson reported to St. Paul. RHP Pierson Ohl was placed on the 7-Day IL for Wichita. OF Gabriel Gonzalez reinstated from the IL for Cedar Rapids. RHP Kyle Jones rehab transferred from FCL to Fort Myers. Former Twins 1st round pick Keoni Cavaco has been signed by the Astros and assigned to the FCL. Apparently he is going to pitch. SAINTS SENTINEL Iowa 11, St. Paul 9 Box Score Randy Dobnak took the ball for St. Paul on Thursday night and worked five innings of three (unearned) run baseball. He scattered six hits while walking just one and striking out six. His run of strong performances continued. Matt Wallner blasted a first inning dinger that scored Brooks Lee to give St. Paul a 2-0 lead. Chris Williams then homered in the second inning, scoring Will Holland, and pushing the lead to 4-0. Yunior Severino’s 15th home run of the season, coming in the third inning, made it 5-0 before Iowa could respond. The Cubs grabbed three in the fifth inning, but all were unearned. After knotting things at five in the sixth inning, the Saints got back to work. Severino scored Edouard Julien on a sacrifice fly before DaShawn Keirsey Jr. singled home Lee. Tony Kemp then drove in Wallner and Keirsey with a single of his own, and St. Paul had a 9-5 lead headed to the bottom of the seventh. Unfortunately Austin Brice gave up four runs on four walks without getting an out in the seventh inning, and Nick Wittgren allowed two more. Down 11-9 headed to the eighth inning, St. Paul had work to do. Kemp reached with two outs in the final frame, and Anthony Prato walked, but Williams struck out and the comeback came up short. Lee was 3-for-5 while Keirsey had two hits of his own. The Saints also drew five walks on the evening as a club. WIND SURGE WISDOM NW Arkansas 7, Wichita 2 (F/10) Box Score It was another Zebby Matthews night on the bump for Wichita, and he worked 5 2/3 innings allowing two runs on five hits. He gave up a walk but struck out five during the outing. Ben Ross started the scoring with a third inning sacrifice fly that brought home Noah Cardenas. The Naturals plated a run in both the fourth and sixth innings to take the lead. Ross responded with his fifth home run of the season, a seventh inning solo shot, to tie the game. Headed to the tenth inning with an inherited runner, things went way wrong for Wichita. The Naturals put up a five-spot in their half, and then blanked the Wind Surge in the bottom of the frame. An otherwise tight game got ugly. Wichita wound up with just five hits, and they carried a 16/10 K/BB on the evening. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 4, Beloit 1 Box Score The Kernels kicked off the contest by watching alum David Festa make his debut for the Twins. Jeremy Lee then did a great impression by throwing six innings of one-run (unearned) ball, while scattering five hits. He walked none and struck out three. Agustin Ruiz started the scoring in the second inning with his fourth home run of the season. Jay Harry scored on the big fly and Cedar Rapids was out to a 2-0 lead. Returning from a stint on the injured list, Gabriel Gonzalez singled home Payton Eeles to make it 3-0 in the third inning. After giving a run back in the fifth inning, Eeles drove home Jose Salas with a single of his own in the bottom half. That score held the rest of the way and Cedar Rapids tacked on another victory. Gonzalez returned to the lineup with a pair of hits and he was joined by Salas in the effort. Kyle Bischoff and Ricardo Velez combined to throw a scoreless final three innings. MUSSEL MATTERS Fort Myers 6, Tampa 2 Box Score Kyle Jones made a start for the Mighty Mussels on a rehab assignment and he was perfect. Working three hitless innings, he didn’t walk anyone and struck out four. Spencer Bengard piggybacked his start, and despite giving up two runs across five innings, he struck out six. Brandon Winokur remained out of the lineup after being removed last night following another hit by pitch to the same arm that sidelined him for a week. Nick Lucky kicked off the scoring with a three-run homer in the second inning that scored Isaac Pena and Yohander Martinez. Up 3-0 in the fourth inning, Fort Myers added again. Martinez drove home Pena on a single before Maddux Houghton plated Martinez with a single of his own. Up 5-0 entering the seventh inning, Fort Myers gave a pair back, but still held a commanding lead. Daniel Pena got a run back in the bottom of the seventh inning that scored Poncho Ruiz, and the 6-2 tally was how this one ended. The Mighty Mussels evenly distributed their six hits, but Ruiz reached twice on a pair of walks. COMPLEX CHRONICLES FCL Braves 3, FCL Twins 2 (F/7) Box Score Adrian Bohorquez started on Thursday for the Twins and worked 4 1/3 innings while allowing three unearned runs on two hits. He gave up five walks but also struck out five. Ariel Castro kicked off the scoring in the first inning with his third home run of the season. The two-run shot scored Jayson Bass and put the good guys in front. Unfortunately the second inning saw the Braves respond with a three-spot and the lead was gone. That’s where things ended, and Bass was joined by Anderson Nova as the lone batters with two hits. DOMINICAN DAILIES DSL Twins 9, DSL Phillies Red 5 (F/7) Box Score Melvin Rodriguez drew the start and turned in 3 1/3 innings of one-run baseball. He gave up three hits and two walks while striking out five. With a 2.87 ERA this season, he has been a standout for the DSL squad. Luis Fragoza scored the game’s first run on an errant pickoff attempt in the first inning. After the Phillies tied it in the second inning, the Twins added on in the third inning. A wild pitch scored Fragoza again and a Victor Leal single scored Eduardo Beltre and Yandro Hernandez. Up 5-1 in the fifth inning, Yandro Hernandez scored on another errant pickoff throw to make it 6-1. Leal drove in Merphy Hernandez with a sixth inning sacrifice fly before an Alver Medina single scored Beltre and Ricardo Paez to put the Twins up 9-1 through six innings. Jose Vasquez has six strikeouts through 2 2/3 of relief before hitting a wall in the seventh inning. He gave up four runs but ultimately the Twins held on for a victory with Daniel Manzueta shutting down the Phillies. No Twins hitter recorded multiple hits, but Luis Rodriguez and Beltre both walked three times. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Jeremy Lee (Cedar Rapids) - 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K Hitter of the Day – Brooks Lee (St. Paul) – 3-4, 2 R, BB PROSPECT SUMMARY Check out the Prospect Tracker for much more on the Twins Top 20 prospects after seeing how they did on Thursday. #2 – Brooks Lee (St. Paul) – 3-4, 2 R, BB #4 – David Festa (Minnesota) - 5.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K #5 – Gabriel Gonzalez (Cedar Rapids) – 2-4, RBI, 2 K #9 – Luke Keaschall (Wichita) – 1-3, 2 BB, K #13 – Tanner Schobel (Wichita) – 0-4, BB, 2 K #14 – Zebby Matthews (Wichita) – 5.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, BB, 5 K #18 – Yunior Severino (St. Paul) – 1-3, R, 2 RBI, HR(15), BB FRIDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Iowa (7:08 PM CST) – RHP Caleb Boushley (8-1, 3.52 ERA) Wichita vs NW Arkansas (7:05 PM CST) – RHP Marco Raya (0-1, 4.78 ERA) Cedar Rapids vs Beloit (6:35 PM CST) – RHP Ty Langenberg (2-0, 4.50 ERA) Fort Myers vs Tampa (6:05 PM CST) – RHP Charlee Soto (0-2, 5.94 ERA) Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Thursday’s games! 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The Minnesota Twins haven’t had a player win the American League Rookie of the Year award since Marty Cordova did so in 1995. Simeon Woods Richardson continues to inch closer towards ending the drought, and it’s not at all far-fetched. Of course Minnesota would have hoped that Miguel Sano, Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, or any of their other top prospects could have won an American League Rookie of the Year award. Unfortunately, none of them could generate enough positive statistical momentum to be in the conversation, and Marty Cordova’s award in 1995 is nearly 30 years old. Simeon Woods Richardson wasn’t even supposed to be in the starting rotation for Rocco Baldelli early on this season, but he was called upon quickly when Louie Varland struggled, and he has been nothing short of magnificent. After not starting at all for the Twins last season, and working just one five-inning start in 2022, Woods Richardson has looked like an entirely different pitcher in 2024. With added velocity propping up his arsenal the prospect, once acquired alongside Austin Martin in exchange for Berrios, is doing it all. As Pablo Lopez has scuffled out of the gate, and the combination of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have been just good, it’s Woods Richardson who has toyed with greatness. Opposing hitters have not generated significant traffic against him, and he’s not allowing free passes or big flies. While the strikeout stuff isn’t otherworldly, he has trended up lately and adding more than three mph of fastball velocity is a significant part of the equation. Minnesota continuing to work with Woods Richardson, and give him the tools to develop into the best version of himself, has been great to see. Now just 23 years old, Woods Richardson was one of the youngest starting arms at Triple-A last year for St. Paul. He had often been in situations where he was among the most talented pitchers on teams he had played for, and figuring out how to innovate and grow amidst adversity was something he needed to go through. That obviously has stuck, and with a few clunkers at the big league level, he has continued to rebound in a positive way. Pitching another solid outing on Wednesday night against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Woods Richardson turned in 5 1/3 innings while allowing three runs on four hits. He walked a pair and struck out four. That sort of outing has largely been the standard for Woods Richardson this year, and while he isn’t going to threaten to win a Cy Young as a rookie, he has established a very strong baseline. The greatest thing standing in the Twins hurler’s way at this point is a former Minnesota prospect. Luis Gil was sent to the New York Yankees when the Twins needed Jake Cave. He has since blossomed into a solid rotation arm, and kept the Aaron Judge-led team afloat while Gerrit Cole was on the shelf. It’s hard not to argue Gil is worthy of an All-Star selection this season, and he has certainly set the pace for Rookie of the Year honors. Once thought to be a race between Jackson Holliday and everyone else, the American League Rookie of the Year award is a duel of pitchers tied to the Twins, and Minnesota can only hope their guy takes over the lead during the second half. View full article

When the Minnesota Twins took Byron Buxton with their first overall pick of the 2012 Major League Baseball draft, they envisioned a player making a profound impact on their franchise. The starts and stops have been frequent, but he has certainly made that impact. His latest accomplishment puts him in rarefied air. Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Byron Buxton made his debut with the Minnesota Twins during the 2015 regular season. He won a Gold Glove two years later, and earned his first MVP votes, despite posting just a 93 OPS+. During 2020, he improved on his MVP positioning, and in 2022, he appeared in his first All-Star Game. The storyline for Buxton, who was signed to a seven-year, $100-million extension by Minnesota prior to the 2022 season, has always been about injuries. Fluky as it may be, his inability to stay on the field has been the main thing that has taken away from his production. A different hitter now, looking for more power than ever, he remains an elite talent in the outfield. The skillset has combined for 20.1 fWAR, making him just the 28th hitter in franchise history (including the Washington Senators) to reach that mark. Justin Morneau came up just shy, at 19.9 fWAR, and Roy Smalley’s 20.9 fWAR is the next name Buxton could pass on the list. Removing those that did their damage for the Senators would push Buxton all the way up to 13th in team history. It's unfortunate that we have seen Buxton’s production sapped by an inability to stay on the field, and we have lost out on some of the greatest years of his prime to various ailments. At this point, the Georgia native understands the trajectory of his career will forever be different, as he deals with chronic knee pain. Still, the hope is that he’ll be able to adapt and settle into a productive future. How far Buxton can climb remains to be seen. Even while struggling through a new process at the plate, and having missed time early this season, he has already played nearly 60 games. He has surpassed the production he put up in 85 games last season, and generating the 3.5 fWAR from 2022 is within reach. With four more seasons on his contract, something between Brian Dozier’s 23.8 fWAR and Chuck Knoblauch’s 33.6 fWAR seems possible. Bob Allison, of Senators fame, put up 35.3 fWAR for the Twins and is revered as one of the best hitters in franchise history. Buxton could get there with a combination of rejuvenate offense and sustained excellence on defense, but to do so, his bat would need to continue to play into his mid-30s. It’s odd to think that Buxton has now been in the big leagues for 10 seasons, and he has been in the system for nearly half of his life. That’s the reality, though, and Twins fans have seen him grow from the stringy high schooler into the family man with a smile always willing to go out and give the franchise his best. The rest of this story remains unwritten, but to this point, we’ve seen highs and lows that have produced one of the greatest careers in franchise history. First-round picks don’t always work out that way, and first overall picks aren’t guaranteed to do so, either. Buxton, though, has remained determined to keep showing up and accruing value. View full article

Joe Ryan fell behind early on Tuesday night, and while it was an ugly start, he settled in and gave the Twins a chance to come back and reset the game. Unfortunately, the bullpen couldn't slam the door, and the resurgence was all for naught. Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Box Score SP: Joe Ryan 6.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 5 K (86 pitches, 58 strikes, 8 whiffs) Home Runs: Bryon Buxton (6), Ryan Jeffers(13) Bottom 3 WPA: Joe Ryan (-.186), Trevor Larnach (-.184), Jorge Alcala (-.155) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Diamondbacks Early Liftoff Willi Castro kicked off the contest with a single to open the game against Brandon Pfaadt, but he never advanced beyond second base with Trevor Larnach quickly grounding into a double play. Royce Lewis, who was coming in off an 0-for-4 game, will test his slump theory. He opened with a ground out, and the reigning National League champions were headed to the plate. 2023 rookie of the year Corbin Carroll has really struggled this season, but he opened with a single against Joe Ryan before Ketel Marte took him deep for his 16th home run of the season. The Twins starter doesn’t have the 1.8 HR/9 he did last season, but has continued to be plagued by the big fly this year. Marte’s home run was the 15th Ryan has allowed in 92 innings this year. The second inning saw Ryan allow a Jake McCarthy single to start the frame, and then Eugenio Suárez crushed a ball to the gap that Byron Buxton couldn’t come up with. His triple drove in a run before Tucker Barnhart cashed him in the last 90 feet. Just three outs into the ballgame, Minnesota was staring at a 4-0 deficit. Buck Truck Takes Off Putting down the Diamondbacks in a pair of back-to-back 1-2-3 innings, Ryan began to settle in. With four strikeouts through five innings, he had dialed in the command that escaped him a bit to start the game. Byron Buxton rewarded his starter’s zeroes with the Twins first run of the game. A big fly made it 14 straight games with a home run, the longest stretch of the year. Buxton is definitely heating up, and Rocco Baldelli’s lineup could use that presence. Minnesota began to see Brand Pfaadt well in the seventh inning with Carlos Correa crushing a 109.8 mph groundout. Carlos Santana walked and then Buxton blasted a 107.3 mph single that knocked over shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Ryan Jeffers emptied the bases with a 101.9 mph dinger that sent the Arizona pitcher to the showers and tied the game at four. Walks Will Haunt Jorge Alcala came on for the Twins in the seventh inning and quickly got through the first two batters. Walking the nine-hitter Perdomo, the Minnesota reliever put himself in a bad spot. Carroll blooped a single in front of Buxton and Marte beat out an infield single to put Arizona back up 5-4. It was an ugly way to give up a run, but allowing a bottom-of-the-order batter a free base is never a good strategy. Minnesota couldn’t break through against Ryan Thompson during the eighth inning, and any comeback was going to need to happen against Paul Sewald in the ninth inning. After Cole Sands worked a scoreless top half, Buxton ripped a 110 mph two-out double to put the tying run in scoring position. Jeffers followed with a 103 mph liner that had a .940 expected batting average, but Lourdes Gurriel Jr. made the play to end the tilt. Notes Chris Paddack was placed on the injured list after all but begging for a break. Coming back from Tommy John surgery, he is in a similar boat to Kenta Maeda last year, but lasted a few weeks longer before the rest. Ronny Henriquez was called up in his place, but Minnesota will need a starter on Thursday. The most likely candidates are David Festa, Caleb Boushley, and Randy Dobnak. The hope is for Paddack is to return before the All-Star Break. Former Twins starter Dallas Keuchel was traded from the Seattle Mariners to the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday. He had been pitching well at Triple-A Tacoma, and will give the Brewers an immediate option at the big league level for their depleted rotation. An update has finally arrived on Brock Stewart. He will throw another pair of bullpens before the next course of action is decided. He is working back towards a resumption of play, but returning prior to the All-Star Game seems unlikely. Justin Topa is also building back up. Prospect Matt Canterino had resumed throwing bullpens a week and a half ago according to a report. A new report today updated his situation with another bad turn of events. He’s back shelved and headed for another MRI after his shoulder flared up again. Former Twins second baseman recently returned to the Mariners off the injured list, and he’ll be active and in the lineup for their series over the weekend. Mitch Garver also has a .923 OPS in his last 15 games and will be eager to see his former squad. What’s Next? Simeon Woods Richardson goes on Wednesday night against Ryne Nelson and the Arizona Diamondbacks. He will continue his pursuit of American League Rookie of the Year consideration alongside Yankees starter, Luis Guil. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

The Minnesota Twins have needed to add a starting pitcher since the offseason. They opted against doing so, and that has left them in something of a predicament. With the postseason on their minds, finding someone to bolster the rotation down the stretch and into October is a must. Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports So far this season, Pablo López has not been the pitcher he was in 2023, and even if he is able to sort things out down the stretch, he will need help. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have looked the part of capable rotation pieces, and Simeon Woods Richardson has stepped up in such a massive way. Rocco Baldelli needs more though. Calling Jorge Polanco trade throw-in Anthony DeSclafani a starting pitching addition would be doing a disservice to what Minnesota needed to accomplish. Of course, the front office was hamstrung by an ownership group unwilling to invest in their product, but maybe that will change, given the results thus far. The Twins should be expected to nose around in the pitching market, and there will be a plethora of options out there. Two future Hall of Famers, at the end of the line and with AL Central familiarity, could be a lot of fun. Max Scherzer Playing for a reigning World Series champion Texas Rangers team, Scherzer is one of three pitchers who have spent the majority of the season on the injured list for the club. Now back, and having made his season debut (though he'll need to prove his health), Scherzer is pitching for a club under .500 and in third place in the AL West. The Seattle Mariners haven’t been a juggernaut, and maybe the Houston Astros or Rangers catch them, but the Texas team could sell instead. If they do, Scherzer is in the final year of his massive deal, and he will certainly be eyeing a chance to return to October baseball. Arguably, the biggest hurdle here is dollars. Though Scherzer is being paid $43.3 million this year, $20.83 million is already being taken care of by the Mets. Minnesota could approach ownership and ask them to foot the additional bill, or have the Rangers pay it down to increase the level of return they get. Scherzer has made 30 postseason appearances. He hasn’t been the greatest postseason pitcher, but I don’t think the Twins are in a spot to scoff at his résumé. It would be a pretty fun full-circle moment to see him come back to the AL Central and take another team to the World Series, as he nears the end of his career. Justin Verlander Speaking of players who could come full circle, Verlander played the first 13 years of his career with the Detroit Tigers. Unlike Scherzer, he is currently dealing with an injury, having recently been placed on the injured list with neck discomfort. Having come back from Tommy John surgery in 2021 to win the Cy Young in 2022, though, he has shown an ability to rebound even in the late stages of his career. Like Scherzer, Verlander was part of a New York Mets team that spent a bunch of money and did nothing. Also like Scherzer, he is in the American League West and playing for a currently underperforming team. There is reason to believe a franchise looking for yet another trip to the American League Championship Series won’t sell, but Verlander could be a target if they do. The stuff isn’t what it once was, as he currently owns a 3.95 ERA with a 4.97 FIP, but he has a ton of postseason pedigree and is looking to add another World Series ring to his shelf. Verlander is making a whopping $43.3 million this season, with $25 million being paid by the Mets. He has a $25-million vesting option for 2025, and that becomes guaranteed with 140 innings this year. It’s unlikely he hits that number, but Minnesota’s rotation wouldn’t be worse with him in it for 2025, either. At some point the Pohalds will need to decide if they are going to care about their baseball investment. It didn’t happen this offseason, and with television revenues set to decline next year, it’s not going to happen then, either. Getting creative and taking on a big contract while not parting with key farm pieces could be a way to capitalize on a team that should still be riding momentum from a postseason run a year ago. Much more likely, perhaps, they could pay a higher price in terms of young talent and ask either Texas or Houston to hold onto much of the money attached to Scherzer and Verlander, in the bargain. The hurdles are well substantiated, but Scherzer or Verlander being among Baldelli’s top group does a lot for any dreams of ending the Twins' 32-year championship drought. View full article

This is probably it. Best case scenario was for them to be bad and eat it. Worst case is they hang around and grab more at bats. If they continue to produce, it works.

The Minnesota Twins have eyes on the postseason and if they are going to make it there, then having the most productive versions of their best players is a must. There is currently a pair of pitchers that need to generate some positive momentum. Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports With just a couple of weeks left until the All-Star Break, Rocco Baldelli’s club is quickly approaching the halfway point of the major league season. On pace to put up a solid result in the wins column, they will need to push for a bit more consistency and just a bit better results if they are going to chase down the Cleveland Guardians. Achieving those results will rely on both Pablo Lopez and Jhoan Duran settling into a greater level of production during the second half. Pablo Lopez A potential Cy Young candidate when the season started, Lopez has looked like a shell of the pitcher he was during his first season in Minnesota. Extended after being acquired for Luis Arraez, it was clear that the Twins believed they found an arm that still had room to grow. It’s hard to argue against that with the 2023 results, but 2024 has been all about what should happen. Lopez has produced promising advanced metrics, but came into his 16th start of the season with a 5.63 ERA and 1.250 WHIP. Neither of those numbers are good, and they are reflective of actual results. However, making some mechanical tweaks prior to his Sunday start against the Oakland Athletics, Lopez tied a career-high with 14 strikeouts over eight shutout innings while allowing just two hits. It is worth being cautious as to whether Lopez actually found something, or he was just experiencing the benefit of pitching against one of baseball’s worst teams. Still, it was the first time in June that he had gone deeper than five innings, and he looked every bit the dominant star that Minnesota is relying on him to be. Velocity has been a bit all over the place for Lopez this year, but there should be no more cold starts, and using an outing like the one against Oakland to springboard success would be great to see. The Twins postseason hopes rely on Lopez looking like a star, and Joe Ryan combining with Bailey Ober to pitch well alongside him. The ace of the staff needs to get the ball rolling, and we’ve seen him do it before. Jhoan Duran If Lopez is the ace of the staff, then it’s the man with the greatest entrance in baseball that is the ace of the bullpen. Or, at least he’s supposed to be. Duran began the year on the injured list and missed the first 28 games with a strained oblique. He came back to what was expected as a contender for one of baseball’s best bullpens, but he’s hardly looked like himself. The velocity is down, the strikeouts are down, the whiff rates are down, and the results aren’t great. Through his first 24 appearances Duran owns a 3.91 ERA with an even worse 5.01 FIP. He is striking out just 8.2 batters per nine innings, and his 1.6 HR/9 is almost double his career average. Velocity is the name of his game, and he’s lacking miles per hour on both the fastball and splinker. Relying on the curveball has hurt him at times, and Baldelli has been forced to seek answers. Thankfully for Duran and the Twins, Griffin Jax has been one of baseball’s best relievers in 2024. On Sunday against the Athletics, it was Jax who closed out a 3-0 game, not Duran, who allowed his first blown save on a Shea Langeliers home run Friday. On the flip side, regardless of who is recording the save, Minnesota’s bullpen is at its best when both of the top high-leverage options are going good. Brock Stewart has been on the injured list since early May with shoulder tendinitis, and it’s possible that Duran’s oblique injury from the spring is still nagging him. Whether the Twins need to get their closer a bit of a breather or not remains to be seen, but figuring out a way for him to be the best version of himself down the stretch is a must. To what level Lopez and Duran can produce the rest of the way remains to be seen. The Twins need both to see optimal results however, and continuing to work towards ways to make that happen should be among the top priorities for all involved. View full article

A blind squirrel finds a nut they say...

Curious how you view this, maybe excluding Farmer given the small sample size. The Twins are getting nothing back for Margot, and while I'd like to see Keirsey or Wallner, neither are a given. Farmer's salary is a sunk cost, so they could definitely go to Lee (and I suspect they will before Julien).

Amen!

Felt like Keirsey Jr. was closer prior to his IL stint and Margot's consistency.

Zero chance Lee doesn't debut for the Twins this year unless he's traded IMO

As I have been the curator for this all year, I have tried to trend against that and show those that are going off. Obviously those not mentioned would fall in a middle ground or the opposite category. If this is an important designation, I can get back to that. Open to commentary.

While the St. Paul Saints didn’t make it a second straight sweep, they did keep on winning and so too did the rest of the Minnesota Twins farm system. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints TRANSACTIONS: RHP Jay Jackson outrighted to St. Paul COMPLEX CHRONICLES FCL Rays 7, FCL Twins 5 Box Score Juan Cota made the start for the Twins and worked two innings allowing just a single hit while striking out one. Anthony Narvaez pitched four innings, and while he allowed three runs (two earned) he struck out five while walking none. Daniel Pena kicked off the contest with his first home run of the year, a first inning solo shot. The Rays tied it in the fourth inning and added two more in the fifth inning. Yasser Mercedes singled home Gabriel Gonzalez (who is still rehabbing as he eyes a return to Cedar Rapids) in the sixth inning to make it a 3-2 game. A three-spot for the Rays in the seventh inning gave them a 6-2 lead, and they added a seventh run in the ninth inning. The Twins wouldn’t go quietly though, and Mercedes ripped his third home run of the season. Ariel Castro followed with another ninth inning blast, and his two run shot scored Moises Lopez to make it a 7-5 game. Gonzalez stepped in with two outs and the bases loaded, but his groundout ended the game. Pena, Mercedes, and Hendry Chivilli all had a pair of hits. The Twins struck out 14 times during the contest. DOMINICAN DAILIES DSL Cardinals 7, DSL Twins 3 Box Score Leonardo Rondon made the start and pitched four innings of one-run baseball. He allowed three hits and struck out six. Anderson Chacon took the loss in relief. Yandro Hernandez opened the scoring in the fourth inning with his first professional home run. The Cardinals tied things in the bottom half, and raced out to a 6-1 lead by the fifth inning. Eduardo Beltre grounded out but drove in Merphy Hernandez during the sixth inning and Alver Medina singled home Luis Rodriguez in the seventh inning to make it 6-3. The Cardinals added another run in the seventh inning, and the 7-3 score is where this one ended. Seven of the nine Twins batters recorded a hit. WEEK IN REVIEW Triple-A: St. Paul Saints Overall: 38-36 (5-1 last week) Tied second place in the IL West Overview: Ripping off 11 wins in a row, the Saints dropped what could have been two straight streaks with a 20-9 loss on Sunday. Brooks Lee continues to rake at Triple-A and batted .455 (10-22) with three doubles and three home runs. His 11 RBI led the team. Diego A. Castillo played in all six games and went 8-for-20 with three doubles and two home runs. Yunior Severino (.471), Will Holland (.438), and Edouard Julien (.364) all helped to pace the lineup. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. returned and hit a home run while going 4-for-10 in two games. Caleb Boushley was named the International League Pitcher of the Week for his seven inning scoreless start in which he allowed just three hits and struck out five. David Festa struck out six more batters in 5 2/3 innings of work. Randy Dobnak worked around five walks but struck out four during a five inning outing in which he gave up just one run. What’s Next: Headed out to play the Iowa Cubs, St. Paul takes on the second worst team in the IL West. Double-A: Wichita Wind Surge Overall: 31-38 (4-2 last week) Fifth place in the Texas League North Overview: Another series win has the Wind Surge pushing towards .500 on the year as the first half ended this week. Dalton Shuffield went 6-for-12 in five games with a double and a home run. He also stole three bases. Jeferson Morales led the club with five RBI this week. Luke Keaschall had a pedestrian week by his standards but still batted .250 with a double. Cody Laweryson struck out six across 2 1/3 innings of scoreless relief. John Stankiewicz worked 4 1/3 innings of scoreless relief while striking out four. Zebby Matthews was again great with a five inning start in which he allowed just one hit and struck out six. Travis Adams and Jaylen Nowlin led the club with seven strikeouts each. What’s Next: Welcoming NW Arkansas to Wichita, the Wind Surge will kick off their second half. High-A: Cedar Rapids Kernels Overall: 39-28 (3-2 last week) Second place in the Midwest League West Overview: Wrapping up the first half in Peoria, the Kernels started their second half with a 2-1 record. Nate Baez batted .357 with a 1.257 OPS including two home runs in five games this week. Payton Eeles continues to crush after his recent promotion, and went 6-for-17 with a double, triple, and home run. Rayne Doncon (.386) and Ricardo Olivar (.308) both batted over .300 for the Kernels this week. Christian MacLeod was unhittable, throwing six innings of one-hit baseball while striking out ten. Ty Langenberg struck out seven during his five inning start. Gabriel Yanez recorded a pair of saves across 2 2/3 innings scoreless while striking out four. What’s Next: Hosting Beloit, Cedar Rapids welcomes the team that finished just behind them in the first half standings. Low-A: Fort Myers Mighty Mussels Overall: 34-34 (4-2 last week) Fourth place in Florida State League West Overview: Wrapping up their first half with a winning week, the Mighty Mussels handled St. Lucie. Michael Clayton owned a 1.224 OPS in four games while launching a pair of dingers. Rixon Wingrove led the team with 6 RBI while posting a .990 OPS. Walker Jenkins hit his first home run of the season. Ricky Castro made his first affiliated start and worked four innings while allowing a single hit and striking out nine. Spencer Bengard didn’t give up a run during a two-hit start that saw him go six innings and strike out seven. Charlee Soto threw four scoreless innings while striking out five to record the best start of his career. Paulshawn Pasqualotto struck out six in three scoreless innings of relief. Nolan Santos recorded seven strikeouts across 3 1/3 innings of relief split between two appearances. What’s Next: Hosting Tampa, Fort Myers gets the worst team in the Florida State League West this week. Complex League: FCL Twins Overall: 17-17 (2-4 last week) Third place in Florida Complex League South Gabriel Gonzalez started a rehab assignment, playing in three games, and going 3-for-12. Jayson Bass batted .417 in five games while driving in a team-high three runs. Yilber Herrera hit the only home run of the week. Kyle Jones made a three inning start in which he was perfect, striking out four. Liam Rocha led the team with five strikeouts across two appearances tallying a total of five innings. Dominican Summer League: DSL Twins Overall: 7-8 (2-3 last week) Sixth place in Dominican Summer League South Luis Fragoza batted .500 across four games while recording a double and triple. Daiber De Los Santos had two home runs to lead the team this week. His five RBI were also a team high. Edouard Beltre homered and drove in three runs while batting .273. Ricardo Paez hit a home run and had a double while posting a 1.375 OPS in three games this week. Melvin Rodriguez struck out seven batters during a five inning start while allowing just one run. Anderson Ramos worked two games in relief and put up 4 2/3 scoreless. PROSPECT SUMMARY #1– Walker Jenkins (Fort Myers) – 5-23, 4 R, HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 3 K #2 – Brooks Lee (St. Paul) – 10-22, 7 R, 3 2B, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K, SB #4 – David Festa (St. Paul) – 5.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 6 K #5 – Gabriel Gonzalez (Cedar Rapids) – Rehab with FCL - 3-12, RBI, BB #6 – Marco Raya (Wichita) – 3.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K #7 – Charlee Soto (Fort Myers) – 4.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K #8 – Austin Martin (Minnesota) – 6-14, 4 R, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 SB #9 – Luke Keaschall (Wichita) – 6-24, 4 R, 2B, 3 BB, 7 K #11 – Simeon Woods Richardson (Minnesota) – 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K #13 – Tanner Schobel (Wichita) – 4-24, 2 R, 2B, BB, 7 K, SB #14 – Zebby Matthews (Wichita) – 5.0 IP, H, BB, 6 K #15 – Cory Lewis (Wichita) – 3.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K #18 – Yunior Severino (St. Paul) – 8-17, 2 R, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB, 5 K #20 – Ricardo Olivar (Cedar Rapids) – 4-13, 5 R, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB, 2 K Hitter of the Week - Brooks Lee (St. Paul) - 10-22, 7 R, 3 2B, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K, SB Pitcher of the Week - Christian MacLeod (Cedar Rapids) - 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K View full article

The Minnesota Twins continue their pursuit of the Cleveland Guardians atop the American League Central Division, but they will need to continue playing good baseball the rest of the way if they’re going to chase them down. While a handful of players have remained consistent all season, there are a few trending up at the right time. When looking ahead to the Major League All-Star Game in a couple of weeks, players like Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Willi Castro, and Ryan Jeffers could all be considered among the Twins' position players. Each of them has been relatively consistent and productive when on the field this season. Even Carlos Santana, who started slowly, could be a worthy All-Star consideration. Outside of the guys worthy of a nod for the Midsummer Classic, the Twins have seen this trio get things going in a positive direction during recent weeks: Kyle Farmer Given enhanced playing time with Edouard Julien being demoted to Triple-A St. Paul, Farmer got a chance to recover from his woeful start to the campaign. He did it, and quickly. It had been a horrible year for the veteran, and his place on the roster has been scrutinized dating back to the offseason, with his $6.5 million price tag. Tasked with playing second base, specifically against left-handed pitchers, Farmer has played eight games since Julien was sent down. He's batting .320/.414/.400, with a pair of doubles. While it’s an incredibly small sample size, he’s doing exactly what has been asked at a time when Minnesota needs it most. Although Julien hasn’t looked good at Triple-A, and isn’t threatening for a return soon, Brooks Lee is back in action and has come on strong. If Farmer is to keep the top prospect on the farm for much longer, he’ll need to continue this sort of production. Manuel Margot Brought in as a fourth outfielder and replacement for Michael A. Taylor, it would be hard to imagine that Margot’s start with the Twins could have gone worse. He didn’t hit, and the fielding abilities had Willi Castro as a choice in center field over Margot. Still playing primarily on the corners, Margot has begun to turn a corner. He has been the leadoff guy against lefties, and is batting .298 with an .857 OPS since Jun. 1. Margot has five extra-base hits this month and has pushed his yearly OPS against lefties up to .837. In short, Margot has now become everything they had hoped for when acquiring him from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Matt Wallner was sent out earlier this season, and Trevor Larnach doesn’t represent the same type of player as Margot. Maybe DaShawn Keirsey Jr. can push him for playing time down the stretch, but it will be tough to argue against keeping him on the roster if these types of results continue. Byron Buxton Placed on the injured list early in May, Buxton returned halfway through the month. It was tough sledding as he returned to the lineup, but things have taken a better turn during the last few weeks. Buxton’s process has changed substantially over the past few years, and he’s always going to lean into a decent amount of swing and miss while he looks to do damage. Still, the center fielder is batting .291 with a .328 OBP across his last 14 games. It comes with a less-than-ideal 14/2 K/BB, but he homered against Hogan Harris and ripped a double to push his extra-base hit tally to six in his last 14 games. Buxton being a lineup fixture, both from a position of health and productivity, is something the Twins will absolutely need down the stretch. Minnesota has been on something of a rollercoaster this season, but remaining consistent the rest of the way should land them in the postseason. Have recent hot streaks changed the way you think about any of these players? What do you expect from them next? View full article