Hrbowski

He is still throwing, so he wasn't exactly saving his arm.

I really don't know what the White Sox will do if Faedo isn't available. I know they like Carlson, so I went with him there. If the White Sox can take Faedo Carlson will fall to either the Mariners or Blue Jays.

My new mock is up: http://twinsdaily.com/blog/531/entry-8889-mock-draft-20-2017-mlb-draft/

I think that the Reds take him at #38. I just ended my mock with the Twins third pick.

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2017-MLB-Draft.png A lot has changed on the draft scene since my last mock. I will do a new version with notes next week. #1 Minnesota Twins – Kyle Wright – rhp - Vanderbilt #2 Cincinnati Reds – Brendan McKay – lhp - Louisville #3 San Diego Padres – Hunter Greene – rhp – CA High School #4 Tampa Bay Rays – J.B. Bukauskas – rhp – UNC #5 Atlanta Braves – MacKenzie Gore – lhp – NC High School #6 Oakland Athletics – Pavin Smith – 1b - Virginia #7 Arizona Diamondbacks – Royce Lewis – of – CA High School #8 Philadelphia Phillies – Adam Haseley – of - Virginia #9 Milwaukee Brewers – Jeren Kendall – of - Vanderbilt #10 Los Angeles Angels – Alex Faedo – rhp - Florida #11 Chicago White Sox – Sam Carlson – rhp – MN High School #12 Pittsburgh Pirates – Keston Hiura – 2b – UC Irvine #13 Miami Marlins – D.L. Hall – lhp – GA High School #14 Kansas City Royals – Jordan Adell – of – KY High School #15 Houston Astros – Evan White – 1b - Kentucky #16 New York Yankees – Nick Pratto – 1b – CA High School #17 Seattle Mariners – Shane Baz – rhp – TX High School #18 Detroit Tigers – Trevor Rogers – lhp – NM High School #19 San Francisco Giants – Austin Beck – of – NC High School #20 New York Mets – Jake Burger – 3b – Missouri State #21 Baltimore Orioles – Logan Warmoth – ss – North Carolina #22 Toronto Blue Jays – Blayne Enlow – rhp – LA High School #23 Los Angeles Dodgers – Bubba Thompson – of – AL High School #24 Boston Red Sox – Seth Romero – lhp – No School #25 Washington Nationals – Alex Lange – rhp - LSU #26 Texas Rangers – Tristan Lutz – of – TX High School #27 Chicago Cubs – Griffin Canning – rhp - UCLA #28 Toronto Blue Jays – David Peterson – lhp - Oregon #29 Texas Rangers – Corbin Martin – rhp – Texas A&M #30 Chicago Cubs – Wil Crowe – rhp – South Carolina #31 Tampa Bay Rays – Heliot Ramos – of – Puerto Rico #32 Cincinnati Reds – Quentin Holmes – of – NY High School #33 Oakland Athletics – Garrett Mitchell – of – CA High School #34 Milwaukee Brewers – Hans Crouse – rhp – CA High School #35 Minnesota Twins – Tanner Houck – rhp - Missouri #36 Miami Marlins – Brian Miller – of – North Carolina #37 Minnesota Twins – Hagen Danner – rhp – CA High School

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken Kyle Wright is a right-handed pitcher for the Vanderbilt Commodores who is one of the top players available in the draft. Wright is 6’4” and weighs 220 pounds, with the prototypical build that scouts love in pitchers. Due to his strong commitment to Vanderbilt, he went undrafted as an Alabama high schooler and has since physically matured and added five miles per hour to his velocity. He got off to a slow start this spring, but he has turned that around in the last few weeks. Wright may have more momentum than any other college player and will be one of the first picks come June. Wright uses a four-pitch mix: fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. His fastball sits in the 92-94 mph range, with occasional flashes into the upper nineties. His curveball should be above average, but early in the season he left it up in the zone too much, which got him into trouble. His slider is an above average pitch, yet there is some debate about whether it is a true slider or if it is more of a cutter. His fourth pitch is a changeup, and although it is behind his other pitches, it should develop into a usable big league offering. Wright uses a long stride in his delivery, but he may lose too much of the momentum he gets into the ground. His upper half also gets slightly behind his lower half during his pitching motion, which sometimes causes him to have inconsistent release points. Even though there are some concerns about his mechanics, he makes it look rather pretty, and his issues should be smoothed out in the development process quickly. Control is not a big issue for Wright, and it should be at least average in the majors. As the draft gets closer, Wright’s name has come up increasingly more often in talk involving the Twins. Teams selecting first in the draft tend to favor players with similar profiles to the Vandy right-hander, and the Twins have been watching him closely. If the Twins draft Wright, he should be in their rotation within the next two years, making him more appealing to a new front office than a player who is further away. College pitchers are not always a safe pick, with their careers often being derailed by injuries, but that is a risk you are taking with anyone. Regardless, when the Twins pick first next month, there is a good chance they will take Wright. Wright was a favorite of scouts entering the season, and he maintained that status through a rough stretch. If he can continue his recent turnaround, he will be a top five draft pick. He has one of the highest ceilings among players in this class, with top of the rotation potential, and he could also move quickly through a system, giving the team that drafts him someone who could pay big dividends soon. Regardless of where he goes in the draft, Wright has a bright future ahead of him.

Sam Carlson, a right-handed pitcher out of Burnsville High School in Minnesota, has risen swiftly up draft boards this spring. After scouting him, this comes as no surprise. Committed to the Florida Gators, Carlson is listed at 6’4” and 195 pounds, with a projectable body that will add a lot of strength as he gets older. Because his season started later than most, scouts have gotten a later look at him than some of the other top prep pitchers. Nevertheless, they have come away impressed with his calm presence on the mound and advanced feel for pitching.Carlson’s pitching repertoire consists of three above average pitches that he can throw for strikes. He throws his fastball in the 92-94 mph range, which he commands down in the zone very well. His slider is good enough to be an out pitch, sitting in the low 80s with some bite to it. His changeup has good deception, and is one of the best among this year’s draft class. His understanding of pitching elevates him over most high school pitchers across the country, and there are no concerns about him being just a thrower. Carlson has above average control, which can be attributed to clean pitching mechanics. There is not a whole lot of effort in his delivery, and he has nice arm action. The team that drafts him will likely have him use his lower half more, but that is a natural part of the development process and is not something he needs to worry about in high school. As he matures, his velocity will get better, which paired with his secondary offerings makes him a likely middle of the rotation pitcher down the road with a ceiling of a number two starter. Pitching in a cold-weather state has caused him to fly under the radar, but when he reaches the professional level he could surprise many. The Florida commit is also a good hitter, so if he chooses college, he will be a two-way player. Since he will be chosen in the first round, his chance to hit at a higher level will likely be in a National League ballpark, but that is a ways down the road. Overall, Carlson should be in the conversation as the best prep pitcher in the class. Hunter Greene and Shane Baz receive more hype, but Carlson has better pitchability than either of them. Many teams have Carlson near the top of their board, including the Mariners, Giants, and Blue Jays. Teams that pick in the top ten that have interest are the Braves and Brewers, who both have histories of taking high school players. The Pirates have been keeping a close eye on him, and since people are having a tough time pegging their potential pick we could see a surprise there. As the draft approaches, more information will come out about which teams like him the most. You could speculate all day on who will draft Carlson, but I think that he will go higher than what most publications are predicting. When Carlson hears his name called on June 12th, he will be one of the top picks from Minnesota in draft history. Click here to view the article

Increase in velocity depends on the pitcher, but Carlson will add to his fastball. I wouldn't be surprised to see him sitting around 97 mph in the future. I don't prefer one breaking pitch over another. If the pitcher locates it well and gets swings and misses he obviously has something working for him. Yes, those other pitches you mentioned usually develop later than most, but you can get a good feel for who will be able to do it and who won't.

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2017-MLB-Draft.png Sam Carlson is a right-handed pitcher out of Burnsville High School in Minnesota who is committed to the Florida Gators. Carlson is listed at 6’4” and 195 pounds, with a projectable body that will add a lot of strength as he gets older. Because his season started later than most, scouts have gotten a later look at him than some of the other top prep pitchers. Nevertheless, they have come away impressed with his calm presence on the mound and advanced feel for pitching. Carlson has risen swiftly up draft boards this spring, and after scouting him this comes as no surprise. Carlson’s pitching repertoire consists of three above average pitches that he can throw for strikes. He throws his fastball in the 92-94 mph range, which he commands down in the zone very well. His slider is good enough to be an out pitch, sitting in the low 80s with some bite to it. His changeup has good deception, and is one of the best among pitchers in this year’s draft class. His understanding of pitching elevates him over most high school pitchers across the country, and there are no concerns about him being just a thrower. Carlson has above average control, which can be attributed to clean pitching mechanics. There is not a whole lot of effort in his delivery, and he has nice arm action. The team that drafts him will likely have him use his lower half more, but that is a natural part of the development process and is not something he needs to worry about in high school. As he matures his velocity will get better, which paired with his secondary offerings makes him a likely middle of the rotation pitcher down the road with a ceiling of a number two starter. Pitching in a cold-weather state has caused him to fly under the radar, but when he reaches the professional level he could surprise many. Many teams have Carlson near the top of their board, including the Mariners, Giants, and Blue Jays. Teams that pick in the top ten that have interest are the Braves and Brewers, who both have histories of taking high school players. The Pirates have been keeping a close eye on him, and since people are having a tough time pegging their potential pick we could see a surprise there. As the draft approaches, more information will come out about which teams like him the most. You could speculate all day on who will draft Carlson, but I think that he could go higher than what most publications are predicting. Overall, Carlson should be in the conversation as the best prep pitcher in the class. Hunter Greene and Shane Baz receive more hype, but Carlson has better pitchability than either of them. The Florida commit is also a good hitter, so if he makes it to college he will be a two-way player. Since he will be chosen in the first round his chance to hit at a higher level will likely be in a National League ballpark, but that is a ways down the road. When Carlson hears his name called on June 12th, he will be one of the top picks from Minnesota in draft history.

Sorry that I missed this comment. Smith only has 2 stolen bases this year.

They actually had lengthier careers than the more physical pitchers who were ranked higher than them in the same drafts. Greg Reynolds and Taylor Jungmann were less durable than Lincecum and Gray. Another reminder, very few pitchers make it past the age of thirty.

http://s3.amazonaws.com/media.dth/28424_0412_baseballvsncstate_gargan196p.jpg J.B. Bukauskas is a right-handed pitcher for the University of North Carolina who has the best pitching repertoire available in this year’s draft. Bukauskas is listed at 6’0” and 195 pounds, and with his delivery and pitch mix he reminds me of a smaller Matt Cain. A native of Virginia, Bukauskas played high school baseball for the Stone Bridge Bulldogs, where he quickly ascended draft boards during his senior year. In 2014, he was drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 20th round after asking teams to not draft him, and he ultimately made the predictable decision to attend college. With his electric pitching style and presence on the mound, he has the potential to separate himself from all other players in this year’s class. Bukauskas’s repertoire consists of three pitches: Fastballs, sliders, and changeups, with all being above average or average. His fastball reaches the upper nineties, and he works with it on both sides of the plate. His slider is nothing short of nasty, and he can throw it at ninety miles per hour with the bottom falling out, making it nearly unhittable. His changeup will need the most improvement, but it should at least be an average major league offering. His command of his pitches has improved throughout his years at college, and will likely get even better. The main concerns that scouts have about Bukauskas are his violent delivery and small size, which leads some to conclude that he will end up in a bullpen. He has already diminished the effort he uses while pitching, but has still managed to maintain his velocity, and with the right development he could continue to do this. His control has also improved with the changes in his delivery, and his walk rates have gone down every year in college. His size should not be a big concern, since many other pitchers with similar builds have had a significant amount of success in the big leagues, including Tim Lincecum, Sonny Gray, and Marcus Stroman. Even if Bukauskas moves to a bullpen, he could be an elite reliever. Bukauskas could potentially be selected first in the draft, but the talk involving him and the Twins has subsided as the draft gets nearer. Right now, it looks as if the Twins will take a pitcher, and Bukauskas has a higher ceiling than any other college pitcher available. Most people think the Twins will take either a high upside player like Hunter Greene, or a potentially quick mover like Brendan McKay, but Bukauskas could be the perfect combination of the two, albeit a less physical one. Most right-handed pitchers who are selected first overall are much taller than Bukauskas, with recent examples being Kris Benson, Matt Anderson, Bryan Bullington, Luke Hochevar, Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole, and Mark Appel. Few of them had big league success, making me wonder if height is the best way to separate hard throwing pitchers. Bukauskas has been overlooked by many so far, but that could quickly change in the future. His athleticism and competitive nature make him fun to watch, and he has performed consistently against some of the best college competition. Some teams think that the injury risk with Bukauskas is too great to select him, but injuries are something you can get with any pitcher. The team that roles the dice and decides to take the undersized righty could get a future number one starter. Regardless of risk, Bukauskas is the best player available.

Not publicly.

Brendan McKay is a left-handed pitcher and first baseman who plays college baseball for the Louisville Cardinals. McKay is listed at 6’2” and 220 pounds, and has a body and delivery that reminds some of Jon Lester. The Pennsylvania native was overlooked in the 2014 draft, due to his commitment to Louisville and getting less exposure than prep players from states with warmer weather. Three years ago, the San Diego Padres selected him as a pitcher in the 34th round. There is little doubt that he is one of the most intriguing players in this class. McKay’s improved performance as a hitter has been more surprising than his pitching, and he is one of the better hitters available. His load starts with his front foot, and since he only has average bat speed he could have trouble catching up to big league fastballs. He also lets his weight get to far forward towards the pitcher, and his swing is not made for deep flyballs. McKay will only hit for average power at best and is not a good defensive player, so teams might be afraid to select him as an everyday player. He has continued to improve throughout his college career, so some might be willing to take a gamble on him as a hitter. As a pitcher, McKay has dominated college level hitters, and is durable enough to pitch in a big league rotation. He does not have one pitch that will blow you away, but has command of his low nineties fastball along with his curveball, which is his best pitch. His changeup needs work, but some scouts think that he can improve it enough to make it big league average. McKay will likely end up in the middle of a rotation, and is viewed as having one of the highest floors in the draft. The consensus views him as a better pitcher than hitter, and that is where he will likely play in the majors. When the Twins have the first pick in June, McKay will be one of the players that they consider drafting. The industry believes that at the current moment he is their favorite player, although that could change quickly. If the Twins select McKay it could be either as a pitcher or hitter, but a pitcher is more likely to be their pick than a hitter. Advanced college players have a history of being selected first overall, and McKay is already close to his ceiling. His combination of being a two-way player and having had success in college could make it hard for the Twins to pass. Brendan McKay is truly an intriguing player, but he is not going to wow evaluators with tools or his pitching repertoire. He may be better suited for the National League, where he could both hit and pitch, but it would be unwise for a team to use him in both roles during the development process. Some view him as a low-risk player because he could move over to first if he does not develop as a pitcher, but that itself comes with a lot of risk. Taking McKay as a hitter would be a bigger gamble, since he is further behind there, and it would be harder for him to transition back to the mound if he cannot hit in the pros. The team that drafts McKay will get a player who could make it to the big leagues quickly.

Thanks for asking questions! I really do not care about defensive ability when I rank prospects. If Smith was a centerfielder he would be the #1 pick, but since he plays first base people are overlooking his hitting abilities. It brings to mind Kyle Schwarber, who was ranked low by most publications because they did not think he could catch in the majors. With Lewis we have the reverse, an extremely athletic player who some scouts think can play both shortstop and centerfield. I think that Lewis will have a hard time adjusting to a wood bat, which I will cover in my post about him. I believe that Greene is a very good player who is having his status unfairly elevated. I had similar opinions on Jay Groome and Riley Pint last year, and there is no reason to believe he is any better than they were. I have reservations about high floor/low ceiling players. Danny Hultzen is someone who comes to mind when people talk about Brendan McKay. I am going to publish my post on McKay today, in case you are interested.

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2017-MLB-Draft.png #1 - J.B. Bukauskas – rhp – North Carolina #2 - Pavin Smith – 1b - Virginia #3- MacKenzie Gore – lhp – North Carolina High School #4 - Kyle Wright – rhp - Vanderbilt #5 - Hunter Greene – rhp – California High School #6 - Sam Carlson – rhp – Minnesota High School #7 - Brendan McKay – lhp/1b - Louisville #8 - D.L. Hall – lhp – Georgia High School #9 - Jake Burger – 3b – Missouri State #10 - Nick Pratto – 1b – California High School #11 - Jeren Kendall – OF - Vanderbilt #12 - Austin Beck – OF – North Carolina High School #13 - Royce Lewis – OF – California High School #14 - Jacob Heatherly – lhp – Alabama High School #15 - Tanner Houck – rhp - Missouri #16 - Shane Baz – rhp – Texas High School #17 - Alex Faedo – rhp - Florida #18 - Keston Hiura – OF/2b – UC Irvine #19 - Griffin Canning – rhp - UCLA #20 - Nick Allen – ss – California High School #21 - Heliot Ramos – OF – Puerto Rico #22 - Hagen Danner – rhp – California High School #23 - Clarke Schmidt – rhp – South Carolina #24 - Tristan Beck – rhp - Stanford #25 - Greg Deichmann – 3b - LSU

McKay is a #3 starter. Greene has as many mechanical concerns as Bukauskas, and will take much longer to develop.

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2017-MLB-Draft.png #1 – Minnesota Twins – J.B. Bukauskas – North Carolina, rhp The talk for the number one pick has been centered around Hunter Greene and Brendan McKay, but with Bukauskas the Twins would get someone who has upside and could help the big league team soon. The Twins could also take Pavin Smith, Kyle Wright, or Austin Beck, but at this point they are lower down on draft boards. #2 – Cincinnati Reds – Brendan McKay – Louisville, lhp The Reds like Hunter Greene, but I think that in the end they will take a college pitcher. McKay and Kyle Wright would be the two best remaining with Bukauskas off the board. If the Twins took Greene or McKay the Reds could take Bukauskas. #3 – San Diego Padres – Hunter Greene – California High School, rhp The Padres really want to take Greene, and I think that they have a good shot at achieving that. If Greene is off the board the Padres would likely stick with a prep player, with Royce Lewis or MacKenzie Gore being the two most likely to be picked. #4 – Tampa Bay Rays – Austin Beck – North Carolina High School, of It is no secret that the Rays love Beck, but they also like a few college pitchers. Kyle Wright and Alex Faedo would be the two best available. #5 – Atlanta Braves – Royce Lewis – California High School, of The Braves have a track record of taking high school players, and if this scenario played out it could be either Lewis or Gore. #6 – Oakland Athletics – Pavin Smith – Virginia, 1b Pavin Smith is having an excellent spring, and the Athletics frequently take college players. If the A’s go with a pitcher I think that they will take Kyle Wright. #7 – Arizona Diamondbacks – MacKenzie Gore – North Carolina High School, lhp MacKenzie Gore could end up going much higher than this, but I don’t think he will fall any further than the Diamondbacks. #8 – Philadelphia Phillies – Adam Haseley – Virginia, of I think that the Phillies will take a gamble on this pick and hope for the next Andrew Benintendi. Haseley’s ceiling is not as high as Benintendi’s, but he could become a very good pick. #9 – Milwaukee Brewers – Jeren Kendall – Vanderbilt, of Kendall played high school baseball right in the backyard of the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Brewers have gone the outfield route in recent drafts. Kendall’s teammate Kyle Wright is a potential pick here as well. #10 – LA Angels – Kyle Wright – Vanderbilt, rhp Wright could go anywhere from #1 to #10, but I do not think that he will fall outside of the top ten picks. The Angels need to rebuild their farm system, and Wright would be the player who could help them the soonest. #11 – Chicago White Sox – Alex Faedo – Florida, rhp The White Sox have a history of taking college pitchers who fall. They missed out on A.J. Puk last year, but I think that they will land Puk’s former teammate in 2017. #12 – Pittsburgh Pirates – Keston Hiura – UC/Irvine, of The talk surrounding the Pirates has been mostly about college hitters, and if they think that Hiura can play in the field they could settle for him. #13 – Miami Marlins – D.L. Hall – Georgia High School, rhp The Marlins got the best high school player in the class last year, and I think that they would like another prep player this year. Hall fits the bill, and could be a fast mover for a high schooler. #14 – Kansas City Royals – Nick Pratto – California High School, 1b The speculation is that the Royals will take a high school player, and Pratto is the best available at this point. #15 – Houston Astros – Seth Romero – Houston, lhp Romero has had issues during his college career that hurt his draft status, but his hometown team might be willing to take a chance on him. #16 – New York Yankees – Tanner Houck – Missouri, rhp The Yankees will likely take somebody who has fallen in the draft, and Houck or LSU’s Alex Lange could be taken with this pick. #17 – Seattle Mariners – Jake Burger – Missouri State, 3b Jake Burger is behind only Pavin Smith as a hitter in this draft, but others such as Haseley and Kendall rank higher on boards because of their athleticism, which Burger lacks. Burger could become a steal. #18 – Detroit Tigers – Shane Baz – Texas High School, rhp The Tigers love hard throwing righties, and the best one who could be available when the Tigers pick is Shane Baz. #19 – San Francisco Giants – Alex Lange- LSU, rhp Lange has moved down boards this spring, but the Giants like taking college righties. #20 – New York Mets – Jordan Adell – Kentucky High School, of Adell is the most athletic player getting first round consideration, and he is unlikely to fall further than the Mets. This far away from the draft it is hard to peg picks past the top twenty, so at this point most of my mock picks below are just guesses. I do have an idea of who the Twins want at numbers 35 and 37, so I will give an explanation of both of those picks. #21 – Baltimore Orioles – Logan Warmoth – North Carolina, ss #22 – Toronto Blue Jays – Brian Miller – North Carolina, of #23 – Los Angeles Dodgers – Mark Vientos – Florida High School, ss #24 – Boston Red Sox – Hans Crouse – California High School, rhp #25 – Washington Nationals – Clarke Schmidt – South Carolina, rhp #26 – Texas Rangers – Garrett Mitchell – California High School, of #27 – Chicago Cubs – Wil Crowe – South Carolina, rhp #28 – Toronto Blue Jays – David Peterson - Oregon, lhp #29 – Texas Rangers – Heliot Ramos – Puerto Rico, of #30 – Chicago Cubs – Griffin Canning – UCLA, rhp #31 – Tampa Bay Rays – Jacob Heatherly – Alabama High School, lhp #32 – Cincinnati Reds – Brendon Little – State JC of Florida, lhp #33 – Oakland Athletics – Michael Gigliotti – Lipscomb, of #34 Milwaukee Brewers – Trevor Rogers – New Mexico High School, lhp #35 Minnesota Twins – Hagen Danner – California High School, rhp Danner’s status is rising this spring, so he might not be around when the Twins pick again, but I do know that the Twins like him. The remaining scouts from the old regime have been following Danner for many years, and if he is still around at #35 the Twins will likely take him. If they think that Danner will not be available they could try to get a deal with Tanner Houck. #36 Miami Marlins – M.J. Melendez – Florida High School, C #37 Minnesota Twins – K.J. Harrison – Oregon State, 1b Harrison is another player who the Twins have been following for a time. Jacksonville righty Mike Baumann and LSU’s Greg Deichmann are also in the running to be taken here.

http://files.shandymedia.com/styles/page_full/s3/images/photos/thefumble/ncaa-college-world-series-finale7.jpg Courtesy of Getty Images Pavin Smith is a first baseman for the Virginia Cavaliers who is the best college hitter available in the draft. Smith is 6’2” and weighs 210 pounds, with a sweet swing that brings Jay Bruce to mind. The Florida native played baseball at Palm Beach Gardens High School and was drafted by the Colorado Rockies in the 32nd round of the 2014 draft, but he did not sign. Smith is a left-handed hitter who is athletic enough to play the corner outfield, but he profiles better at first base. His draft status is rising this spring, and when examining him it is easy to see why. His greatest tool is his hit tool, which continues to get better with more experience. Smith has great control of the bat head, and scouts believe that he will be able to adjust to a wood bat well. He has only five strikeouts in his first 156 at bats, which is a result of his mature approach at the plate. Smith has a swing that is made for line drives, but since he uses a wide stance he may need to incorporate a higher leg kick to increase his exit velocity. He rotates his hips well and has a very strong body, so I would not be surprised if his swing works against professional pitching as it is. Smith has above average power that has started to show up in games this year. In his first two years of college he did not hit a lot of home runs, but he has already set a career high in 2017, which is even more impressive when you consider that he plays in an extreme pitchers’ park. Smith has hit well against the best pitching in this draft class, including Brendan McKay, but J.B. Bukauskas was able to accomplish the feat of striking him out. Also, he is an above average defender at first base, and if a team wants to move him to the outfield he has a strong enough arm to play right, which was evident in his high school days when he sat in the low nineties from the mound. Smith has a good makeup, and is regarded as having a good understanding of the game. The Twins have been linked to Smith this year, and he is under consideration to be taken with the first pick. If Minnesota takes Smith they could sign him for considerably less that slot value, which would allow them to get more creative with their other top picks. Taking the Cavaliers first baseman would be following the Cubs’ model of taking the best college hitter available, which has worked out well for them. Many in the industry are uncomfortable with taking a first baseman when you have the first pick, with it having been seventeen years since one was taken, when the Marlins took Adrian Gonzalez. Currently Smith is not the favorite to be taken with the first pick, but he has helium right now. After examining him, it is no surprise that he is viewed as the top hitter in the draft. Smith does have his doubters, with the number one complaint against him being that he will not be as valuable as someone who can play up the middle. I would like to remind these people that there are many great defensive players who’s chance to play in the major leagues are stunted by their bat, but there are few great hitters who are prevented from playing in the majors by their defense. Although I have nothing against the revolution of putting more emphasis on better defense, I believe that it is causing lineups to be ignored in the most important part of a position player’s game, offense. The team that drafts Pavin Smith will get plenty of it.

Yep. He himself said it.

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2017-MLB-Draft.png Jeren Kendall is a centerfielder for the Vanderbilt Commodores who is regarded as the top outfielder available in the 2017 draft. Kendall is 5’10’’ and weighs 180 pounds, and is often referred to as a smaller version of Jacoby Ellsbury. The Commodores’ outfielder played prep baseball at Holmen High School in Wisconsin and was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the 30th round, but chose to attend college. Kendall bats left and throws right, with natural athleticism adding to all areas of his game. To see what he offers as a prospect we will have to look at the basic areas of his game. The most important aspect of Kendall’s game is his hit tool, which has caused scouts a lot of concern. Jeren is a line drive hitter with a simple load, which is what you want from hitters. His lower half has become more synchronized with the rest of his swing since his high school days, but he will still occasionally get off balance with his back leg, causing him to have trouble hitting breaking balls. The main concern with him as a hitter is pitch recognition, and he admits that even when he is hitting well he cannot tell his teammates what pitches he is getting. As a result, there is a lot of swing and miss in his game, which has taken a toll on both his season and his draft status. Kendall has average power, and should be able to hit about 15 home runs on average when he reaches the big leagues. Offensively he profiles as a number two hitter in the order, with his plus speed giving him a chance to beat out routine grounders and steal bases. His speed and above average arm strength make him a great centerfielder, and now that Bryan Reynolds has left Vanderbilt for pro ball he has been given more chances to play at the premium spot. Because of Kendall’s defensive abilities, teams believe that Kendall will still be able to contribute in the majors even if his hitting never pans out. He is a good student and has a winning personality, and evaluators believe that he will work hard to make the needed adjustments. The Twins have the first pick in the draft, and they have been looking at Kendall this spring. There are other players who are currently higher on their board, but if his hitting picks up in the next six weeks he could make a case to be taken first in the draft. Some sources from the industry say that Kendall is the Twins favorite hitter in the draft class, and if they decide to go that route, he would be the favorite to be picked. Minnesota has a history of taking players brimming with athleticism, but with the new regime in the front office that could change. If the Twins are concerned about similar college players not having had success in the big leagues they may stay away, but Darin Erstad did have success after being taken first overall in the 1995 draft. Having looked at the basic areas of his game, it is easy to see why scouts like him, but it is also obvious that he will have a lot to work on once he gets drafted. Most people, like one Friday night starter in the SEC who I talked to, say others are better hitters, but that Kendall is one of the best all-around players in college. He will have to make progress as a hitter, since very few players get into major league lineups because of their defense, but he is talented enough to do that. Improving his pitch recognition and hitting to all fields would go a long way in advancing his career. Kendall would be a top five pick if the draft were held today, and when it is held in June he will likely be one of the first prospects to go.

Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics Early 2017 draft board: #1 – J.B. Bukauskas – rhp – University of North Carolina Bukauskas has been on fire this spring, with a strikeout to walk ratio of 70/11 in 47 innings. Some scouts do not think he will be a starter because he is only 6’0”, but his pitching repertoire is better than any other in the draft class. Bukauskas’ upside is a top of the staff starter, and if he has to move into the bullpen he should become a great closer. If I were picking number one I would take him over any other player due to his combination of upside and a closer proximity to the majors than the other players in the class. I do not view his size as a concern because if there has been any variance in the success of shorter versus taller pitchers, it has favored the shorter ones. Most taller right handed pitchers who were taken at the top of the draft because scouts viewed them as future workhorse starters never had their careers come to fruition. Meanwhile, smaller pitchers such as Tim Lincecum, Marcus Stroman, and Sonny Gray developed faster than the larger pitchers taken in the years they were drafted. To draw this thought to a conclusion, I do not buy into the philosophy of taller pitchers being better than smaller ones, and there is no data to back up this idea when you look at any sample of pitchers who have been taken in the first round. #2 – D.L. Hall – lhp – Georgia High School Hunter Greene has received more hype than any other prep pitcher this year, but Hall has as much upside as every other high school player. Hall’s fastball and curveball are both well above average, and with development his control will become good enough for him to head a rotation. Like Bukauskas, Hall is only 6’0”, yet scouts have not voiced concerns about his size to the same extent as they have about Bukauskas; that is probably due to his being a lefty. Considering everything, taking Hall would probably be the wisest move for a team looking for high school talent. #3 – Alex Faedo – rhp – University of Florida Faedo is the prototypical favorite of scouts: College righty, tall, and putting up good numbers against SEC competition. Although there is a lot to like about Faedo there are drawbacks, such as having had lower body injuries in the past. Since Faedo has not had any arm injuries some scouts do not feel that his health will be anything detrimental long term, but it could be a sign of his big body breaking down early. Faedo has a high ceiling, and if teams are willing to overlook his injury history he will be one of the first players to be drafted. #4 - Jacob Heatherly – lhp – Alabama High School Heatherly has not gotten much attention, but this lefty from Alabama is the most polished high school pitcher in the draft. Heatherly has four above-average pitches and advanced command for a prep pitcher, but the reason he is not considered a top-five pick by most scouts is because he does not have one pitch that is overly dominant. Heatherly’s repertoire gives him tools to work with, and his ceiling of a number two starter is appealing enough that a team should be willing to take a flyer on him high in the draft. One pitcher who Heatherly reminds me of is fellow Alabaman Braxton Garrett, who some readers might remember as the player I was high on very early last year, even though he was not considered a top ten player at the time. As the spring progressed others recognized Garrett’s potential and he was eventually taken seventh overall by the Marlins. Heatherly does not have the brilliance of Garrett, but he shows a similarity in being a lefty with an advanced feel for pitching. #5 – Hunter Greene – rhp – California High School Greene has long been the favorite to go number one in this draft, and even though I think he is overrated he does have a ton of potential. Since there has been no shortage of praise for Greene I will start out by giving the reasons I dislike him. The first reason is because his curveball is the only secondary pitch that is workable in games, and even though he has a fastball that occasionally touches 98 miles per hour he will not be able to get outs in the big leagues with just two pitches. Greene is working on a changeup, but it has not yet shown a ton of promise, and his command could become an issue that will hinder his development. Greene does have a high ceiling, yet I believe that I should warn Twins fans who are incessantly calling for the team to take him that there is a long path ahead, and that with the amount of development that Greene needs before becoming a major league ready starter, he may never survive the vicissitudes of the minor leagues. #6 – Tanner Houck – rhp – University of Missouri The comparisons of Houck to Max Scherzer have been rampant, and some of that could have to do with them sharing an alma mater. Another similarity is that they both use unorthodox deliveries, which has also raised eyebrows in the scouting world. Houck may have to go further to prove himself than other college pitchers, but if he does, he could move to the top of draft boards. Houck has a superb fastball and a secondary combination of a slider and changeup, which are both solid pitches. #7 – Jeren Kendall – of – Vanderbilt Kendall is the top college hitter in this draft, but that does not say a whole lot since this year is a very weak class for hitting. Kendall has been compared to Jacoby Ellsbury, and although he does show a lot of similarities on the baserunning and fielding sides of the game, he struggles to make contact at times. I will soon be writing a player profile for Kendall where I will cover him more closely. The following players are a drop off from the previous ones, and they probably will not be getting a whole lot of attention from the teams picking first in the draft: Brendan McKay is a two-way player who could be picked as either a first baseman or lefthanded pitcher. The Louisville Cardinal is a favorite for the Golden Spikes Award. Most scouts prefer him as pitcher. Vanderbilt Commodore Kyle Wright got a lot of talk over the winter as a potential number one pick, but a rough spring has silenced that. Wright still has a ton of upside, and should go early in the draft. The top high school hitter is Royce Lewis, who does not yet have a defensive home, and has one of the longest swings I have ever seen. He does have a ton of athleticism, and, if developed properly, he could be very rewarding for the team that drafts him.

That was from today. My post is from yesterday.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Alex-Faedo-0199.jpg Alex Faedo (All rights to Andrew Woolley) Today I begin my coverage of the 2017 MLB Draft, which starts on June 12. I am going to provide some updates on the overall performance of the top players, prospect profiles, prospect rankings, and mock drafts, so have fun! Jeren Kendall is a player that scouts have been watching for some time, and now that he is draft eligible he will be getting even more attention this spring. Kendall’s first week has been interesting, with Jeren maintaining a high batting average, but also striking out as often as he gets a hit. When Kendall hits the ball it becomes must watch baseball, with his blazing speed making routine groundballs difficult plays for the infielders. When Kendall is on his game he can drive the ball into the gaps, but to become a consistent player he will need to make some adjustments. There have been no concerns about the Vanderbilt centerfielder’s fielding and base running skills. We move along to another Vanderbilt player, but this time a pitcher. Righty Kyle Wright’s first two games have been what you would expect from him, with decent starts in both outings. Wright will not miss a ton of bats, but he does have good control for a young pitcher. Wright is a natural athlete and will be a player to watch in the months leading up to the draft. The next player to look at is another big righty pitching in the SEC, but with even more dominating stuff. Alex Faedo is one of the leading candidates to be taken with the first pick of the draft, and if he shows he is healthy he could become a lock to be taken with the first pick, and although I have objections to that I will leave that to be explained in an upcoming blog post. Faedo has been missing bats this season, but he was also hit well for his standard on opening day. The Gator’s Friday night starter has been in the spotlight for his whole college career, and he will continue to be down the road. One player who has been utterly dominant over his first two starts is J.B. Bukauskas, with 21 strikeouts in 13 scoreless innings. Bukauskas is a small guy, but if you were reading the radar gun you would never guess that, with his dazzling fastball reaching the high nineties. Some scouts say that he uses too violent of a delivery to stick in the rotation, but some of the most successful small pitchers in the majors used a violent delivery. If Bukauskas continues to dominate his critics will get quiet. Brendan McKay is the top two-way player in the nation, and has dominated the competition at the college level. McKay’s ceiling is a middle of the rotation starter, but if he gets drafted as a hitter he will be limited to first base. Because of the Louisville Cardinal’s consistent playing he has made a name for himself, but he will have trouble when the competition gets tougher. We move back to big righties from the SEC, but this time with Mizzou’s Tanner Houck. Houck has been striking out batters this spring, but when he has not been doing that he has been getting hit, with 8 earned runs served up in 10 innings. Houck needs to stop running up his pitch count so quickly, which has limited him in the number of innings he has been able to throw this year. If Houck can lock in this season he will move into the area of the first overall pick. Alex Lange is the final player who I am covering with this post, and of course he is a big righty from the SEC. Lange has been sharp this spring, showing improvement in his command and keeping his pitch count low. Lange has a good fastball along with the best breaking ball in the draft class, so if he can stay in the zone this spring he should find his name being mentioned as a potential number one pick.