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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    IMO, we are definitely older than we should be and our youngsters should be getting more MLB playing time. Would we really rather watch Hunter and Rosario? I'd rather Rosario get some time.
  2. jimmer
    I think it's fair to say that since Santana, Vargas and Arcia are relatively new to the majors, we're starting to see some turn around to younger players. I imagine we'll be really young next opening day with likely three more rookie position players playing. Of course one of our pitching rookies will probably be 26, and we'll likely have a 41 year old on the roster so maybe that average age won't drop as much as it should :-)
  3. jimmer
    Truth is, metrics will never come close to being generally accepted. There will always be a way to be skeptical of them whether that skepticism is due to the info not jiving with preconceived notions set in stone or not jiving with basic common sense, or whatever. And some skepticism is good, but it will never go away. No matter how refined metrics get, they will certainly never come close to being as accepted the way fielding % and errors were for over 100 years or so, even though that is based on subjectiveness as well and completely discounts things like range. But the math is easy for all to understand and it got drilled into most of our heads for so long and most of us just accepted it, at least for a little while.
  4. jimmer
    Danny Santana wRC+ was better than Carew's career wRC+ though :-)
  5. jimmer
    Seemed they were just talking rotation, but according to Fangraphs team FIP was 26th and rotation was FIP was 24th. Our defense was even worse, which is hard to accept and makes this offseason harder to stomach since it not only wasn't improved, it was potentially made worse.
  6. jimmer
    Offensively yeah, very likely, but hopefully not defensively.
  7. jimmer
    With a better defense, our pitching staff wouldn't look the worse. It'd still be bad, but I think it's more accurate to say our defense is worse than our pitching when comparing to other teams' pitching and defense.
  8. jimmer
    True talent is usually where the mean is, especially with the more data you have.
  9. jimmer
    I have no doubt you would argue that. I would argue that continuing to use the argument that some people take metrics as gospel is pretty insulting especially when the people accused of taking metrics as gospel keep saying that no one is actually doing that.
  10. jimmer
    Good chemistry and winning culture usually follow winning not the other way around. It's been a long time since we've heard of a really good team having bad chemistry and a losing culture. Seems it's been even longer, if ever, that we've heard of a bad team having good chemistry and winning culture.
  11. jimmer
    How does a pitcher have a great FIP one year and a horrible FIP the next year and then somewhere in the middle the next year? FIP is based on what he does, what he controls, why the difference? Because just like hitting and defense, pitchers have good years and bad years. A two run difference in FIP for a pitcher who pitchers 30 games worth of innings would be a 60 run difference. A 1.5 difference in FIP for the same guy would be 45 runs.
  12. jimmer
    It doesn't make sense to you. Do we know how many 3-5 worse routes on difficult plays would effect the calculation? Even the best have bad days once in awhile. I've seen historically great fielders made three boneheaded plays in one day. It happens.
  13. jimmer
    How do you know? Do we know how many 3-5 worse routes on difficult plays would effect the calculation?
  14. jimmer
    He could have taken better routes, he could have been healthier, he could have had more chance, whatever. Lots of things change from season to season. I get that it doesn't make sense to you and many. I can't do anything about that. Neither can the people whose job it is to quantify this stuff. I just ask, what's a better alternative? Errors? Fielding %, your eyes, my eyes, Nick Nelson's eyes, Parker's eyes? Outliers happen in all things like this. pointing to outliers and saying because of those the system is wrong doesn't make much sense to me. Things don't have to be perfect in every instance for me to buy the overall work, but I'll take the best way to evaluate over other ways that are worse even if the best isn't perfect. I also understand that what makes sense to some doesn't make sense to others and vice versa,
  15. jimmer
    Who says they didn't deserve those numbers for that season? How do we know that he truly wasn't just over the top great that season? An extraordinary defensive season, and a corresponding great metric to quantify it, just tells us what the player did that year and only effects the team defensive ranking for that year. It doesn't mean he will always do that well. Just like wRC+ fluctuates for most batters and FIP for most pitchers. When the projections come out for the following season, seasons like that extraordinary one won't be expected. And no one I know of takes any of this as error proof gospel, including the people who make the metrics. This strawman keeps popping up. Just think it's better than any current alternative.
  16. jimmer
    http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/09/10/gutierrezs-defense/
  17. jimmer
    'True talent should be constant from year to year (more or less), and whether the source of variation is chance reflected in one’s metric or the inaccuracy of the metric itself doesn’t particularly matter: both screw up one’s ability to detect true talent. Still, this is an important and here unremarked distinction, as outlier UZRs are sometimes used to indicate an extraordinary season (a la outlier wOBAs) and not just its unreliability as a metric (a la outlier RBI totals)'
  18. jimmer
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/uzr-2008-to-2009/
  19. jimmer
    Yeah, makes one wonder why people have such issues when a good chunk of scouts say he's more than likely going to end up a reliever and not a hot shot front-line pitcher.
  20. jimmer
    There is zero surprise in this decision.
  21. jimmer
    Jeter's biggest skill as a defender was that he was very sure handed on the balls he could get to and had a very accurate arm. This helped him in the fielding percentage/error stat categories (you know, the most accurate way to judge defense out there) :-). His name helped a lot too, people eager to gloss over his flaws.
  22. jimmer
    GASP! Say Whaaaat? :-)-Stewie
  23. jimmer
    No surprise there, even before his last outing.
  24. jimmer
    Twins fans have been brainwashed by the announcers and the team about how evil the walk is, so people freak out about that. Announcers preach about how often the 1st batter of an inning scores if he gets walked, but we don't seem to get the same kind of preaching when we're talking first batter get on base by a single. Same result though, first batter is on base. I guess it's less of an issue since the batter earned his trip on the bases, but batters also have a hand in working a count to get a walk. It's not just the pitchers fault, it's often the work of the batter. Team takes pride in their usually low walk rates while avoiding the discussion about BAA. :-)
  25. jimmer
    And even then, while taking shift into account MAY effect a players's individual defensive metrics, it shouldn't effect the overall team defensive stats since the TEAM deployed the shift to begin with. certainly the team would get credit for that, one would imagine.
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