jimmer
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Everything posted by jimmer
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Souhan's solution to the "Mauer Problem"
jimmer replied to USAFChief's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Because if you are going to use the stats, you need to use the explanations of the stats as to what the results conclude. Since he didn't fall below zero in either stat in either year, and the stat explanations for both stats say zero is average for the position, then I don't see how one can conclude that he's below average. The stats themselves tell you he isn't. Also, you understand that qualifying players aren't the only ones that play positions, right? You're ignoring the fact that others play 1B and that their play has an effect on how the numbers are determined. Should we ignore Sano's offensive contributions because he didn't reach 502 PAs and, therefore, isn't a qualifying hitter, or do we acknowledge he played? But whatever, if you think he's a below average defender at 1B, go for it. We're at a stand-still. -
Souhan's solution to the "Mauer Problem"
jimmer replied to USAFChief's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
And, again, the powers to be at Fangraphs says the best way to evaluate defense with the stats is to use/look at both DRS and UZR. I haven't seen even one of them (the founder of the site or Dave Cameron or anyone else) point to the Def stat and say that's the one to hang you hat on. In fact, if you read the description of positional adjustment (half of the Def equation) it questions itself a lot. So I'll stick to looking at the ones the experts say to use, DRS and UZR, and I'll continue to ignore Def altogether, especially since it ignores the stat I find to be the best when looking at defense, DRS. As far as not believing in WAR, I guess that depends on how you use it. I use it to put players in categories of ability. It makes no difference to me if a guy is rated as 4.2 WAR guy when he is actually a 4.8 guy or vice versa. He still falls into the All Star level category. It's not meant to be gospel truth, just to get as close as possible to telling how a player contributes overall. In conclusion to my part in our debate (and getting back to what started our debate in the first place, whether or not Mauer was a bad defender and deserving of Souhan's comments), neither UZR or DRS showed that Mauer was below average on defense at 1B either last year or this year since he was never below zero on either stat and, according to the stat explanations themselves, average is zero and -5 is below average. -
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/baseball-is-not-a-contact-sport/
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2014 was an outlier for Peralta defensively. He went back to his stinky defensive self this year. Peralta doesn't set the defensive bar high. Escobar was better than him this year defensively.
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yeah, I get that. I am obviously not a fan of the error/fielding % stat for many reasons, one because of plays just like that one where some might think it was a single (like one of the guys in the booth) and others think other-wise. Another scorer could have agreed with the guy in the booth. It was ruled an E-6 as it should have been.
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it's a cruel game :-) Funny part was one of the announcers said that shouldn't have been an error.
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This just in: Carlos Correa is a big, bad, stud! Two HRs and a double in today's game!
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well, it certainly isn't less respectful than a bat flip by a young player :-)
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Yeah, I really don't get that idea that since DH is traditionally an older player spot in the lineup that means it has to be. If a player is expected to not be so good in the field but can mash, then why not just let him DH like Ortiz did. The only issue for me is if he stays DH, and we think Vargas and/or Arcia might end up being quality major league hitters and are only be able to stick at DH, it becomes an issue.
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I wouldn't say Sano is ensured to have a 150 wRC+. We sure hope he continues to do that, along with posting a .396 BABIP, put neither is ensured. Eight out of 141 qualifying batters in the majors did that in 2014. If we look at guys with 300 or more PA, only 10 out of 268 players did it. It's not as easy to do that over a full season as one might think. I personally would be stoked if he could maintain a 130+ wRC+.
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Maybe ABC, CBS, NBC and regular Fox decided they'd rather show football, other sports, or their fall premiere shows than a sport that seems to get less and less popular to the TV watching public? Wouldn't they have to buy the rights to the games?
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I don't want to see it either, but the two plays aren't that similar. Both should be banned. They should have to take a direct path to the base so where the only way a guy gets smashed into is if he is right there on the base or in front of it.
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'this was pretty much the exact same thing that happened to Nishioka' No, it isn't. Swisher slid before he reached, and in front of, second base and Nishi had his leg planted right there and he was facing forward where he could see the runner coming. Utley didn't start his slide till he was next to 2B, never touched the bag (cause he didn't even try) and plowed a guy with his back turned. Really the only similarity is a guy got his leg broken.
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I'm not a fan of what happened to Nishi a few years ago, but in that case Swisher slid before 2B and Nishi his leg planted right there and he was facing forward where he could see it coming. Utley didn't start his slid till he was next to 2B, never touched the bag (cause he didn't even try) and plowed a guy with his back turned Really the only similarity is a guy got his leg broken.
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I wonder if the Mets will hit Utley right away with a high fast ball?
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They have also been airing on Fox Sports.
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Torre said last night that they were already planning on working on making situations like this happen way less. So the change was coming even before last night. And this isn't something that would need to be approved by players and owners. It can just be done. I also never remember there being an actual rule that stated a catcher not only had to tag a guy out on a fielder's choice but also had to keep hold of the ball after taking a crushing blow by a guy running full speed either. They had to make a rule that mostly nullified something that had been accepted for years. I mean, yeah, the rule says a tag needs to be applied and controlled, but allowing the runners to plow through a fielder? This isn't football.
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'I really feel that Utley wasn't trying to hurt Tejada, but he certainly wasn't even trying to touch the base, and he never even did. The explanation of why he got to be safe by not touching the base at all and leaving the field was completely lame. While Utley's intent was not to break a leg, it was to jump into him without care of what happened. This, to me, is right up there with throwing at a batter intentionally as the most cowardly actions a ball player can do on the field. As a baseball fan, I don't agree with the interpretation of the rules here at all.' This will be addressed in Fall Ball and the rule will, rightfully, change for next year. Should have been done at the same time as the catcher rule was implemented. Both should have been done a long time ago. Utley has been one of my favorite players for a long time, this ticked me off greatly.
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Will Kurt Suzuki's Offense Continue?
jimmer replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Well, we had to hope he would at least. What should we expect from him going into next season? -
On Phil Hughes And Regression
jimmer replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This was interesting to go back and read, both the article (and it's conclusions) as well as the discussions about the conclusion. What was the unexpected change, if any, that had Hughes results revert back to what he was before 2014? Should we expect a bounceback this year? -
Of course.
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When trying to figure out what a player will do, one normally looks back at the last three seasons which were wRC+ of 63, 67 and 104. At least that's what I've been told and what I do. And it makes sense to me. How far back does one go before what a player did becomes irrelevant? 5 years? Does what a player did in 2010 really come into play when trying to predict what a guy will do in 2015? Rule of thumb seems three years. So, by doing that, I saw that going into 2014 he had his worst season and his 2nd worse season. Then he had his way out of character wRC+ in 2014. Seeing that, I figured it was more likely he'd go back to something much closer to his 2012 and 2013 then come close to what he did in 2014. And when his change in approach was pointed out as a reason he had turned around his offensive woes last year, I pointed out then that it seemed unlikely he could sustain that. He didn't sustain it and the fall started in the 2nd half. But we disagree on methods. I felt comfortable with my method, even moreso knowing how it worked out. Exactly how I thought it would. Same thing with Hughes.
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I forgot to mention earlier, but I will do so now. Yes, we reached the agree to disagree point as you said, but I'd like to point out we have done it respectfully without taking any personal shots and/or any labeling. Kudos to you, Sir.
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Yeah, when you point out that it was his 2nd worst season in his career, that's a bit misleading no?Technically it's true but it doesn't really tell us how much worse it was than his 3rd worst season does it? The difference between his 2nd worst season and 3rd worst season is a whopping 1 point difference in wRC+ so it's not like the dropoff from 2013 to 2015 was huge and, therefore, pointing out it was his 2nd worst season really doesn't mean much. Here are his wRC+ numbers in the last 4 seasons (which includes his worst, 2nd worst and 3rd worst offensive seasons). 63, 67, 109 and 66. One of those is CLEARLY not like the others (2014) and the other three (the ones that are his three worse seasons) are all within 5 points of each other. In other words, not much different at all and his 3 worst seasons have occurred in his last 4 seasons. In other words, they haven't been spread over his career suggesting his 2015 was out of the blue. From 2012-2015 we see his worst, 3rd worst, best by far and then his 2nd worst. But 2014, his best season ever, isn't the extreme outlier? If someone sees a over 30 year old catcher guy with a 63 and 67 wRC+ in his previous two seasons (his two worst seasons at the time), then he has a career year at 107 wRC+. which seems more likely to happen the following season when looking at magical regression? Most likely the next year is going to be way closer to the 63 and 67, no? And look what happened.
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If the Cubs had to play in the AL they would have been able to play Schwarber all year at DH, which would have helped their team tremendously since he's a liability in the field, and they wouldn't have had to have their pitchers hit. I don't think that would have hurt the team at all. Their strength came from young position players and superior pitching, which also translates well to AL. Playing in a league with the DH would have helped them not hurt them (because a full year of PAs for Schwarber without having to deal with holding him back because of defense). Just my opinion.
