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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    If we are dissecting his months...His God awful April? With his ERA of 4.84? Are we ignoring his June? ERA of 4.70? Half his months this season, he's been at 4.70 ERA or higher. Did his April and June drag him down or did his very good May and July pull him up?
  2. jimmer
    Dozier's WAR his first year as a full time starter (2013) was a 2.6, then 4.8 and he's on pace for another high 4 WAR this year. I'm not sure Gibson and Dozier equate. But I agree the last three years are the most prevalent for any player, assuming he has played that long. What have we seen in that time frame from Gibson?
  3. jimmer
    He's above average by a decent margin based on what? Being tied for 57th out of 94 qualifying SPs in WAR? Being 59th out of 94 in FIP? 76th out of 94 in K/9?
  4. jimmer
    I am cautiously optimistic that Gibson has turned a corner, I certainly want that to be the case, but that doesn't mean based on everything I've written, that I feel compelled to discard any info in Gibson due to having so little to use to begin with. What do we do with his last start?
  5. jimmer
    I am not faulting him, Brock. This isn't attack Gibson time. This is evaluating the player we have. He has 60 career starts. Yes he is 27, turns 28 this calendar year, so his next full season he will be? Most pitchers are who they are at his age. He has 60 career starts, an ERA of 4.33, a FIP of 4.03. He has 3.3 WAR. He Ks less than 6 per 9. There is nothing that screams this guy will be any more than average. I don't like saying that. I want all of our guys to be studs, but it's not happening with him.
  6. jimmer
    Age (and experience) IS actually relevant here. If he had more history of being a stud, I'd shake that month off. He doesn't. Most pitchers are who they are at his age. If he was in his early 20's I would agree with the development part, but he's not. How much more do MOST pitchers develop at 28? You really believe he's a stud in the making?
  7. jimmer
    You know, this is the third time in the last two days you've decided to put a label on my argument to try and discredit it. Gets a little old... So, I can't use Gibson's age against him, but you can use Tulo's age against him. Seems disingenuous. I guess goose and gander don't apply here. Age (and experience) IS actually relevant here. Most pitchers are who they are at his age. There's nothing disingenuous about the point I'm making. He doesn't have the history in the majors to put aside any stats yet, or at least give him the same benefit of the doubt you give to a player who has close to a decade of info to look at. Anyone who does statistical analysis will tell you that and will also tell you you can't apply the same benefit of the doubt to a player who has been a stud for almost a decade to a pitcher who hasn't even had two full seasons in the majors yet and has NEVER been a stud.
  8. jimmer
    No, not really. The goose and gander in the scenario couldn't be more far apart in regards to proven talent over a long period of time. Gibson hasn't played enough in the majors to give him the benefit of the doubt. If he had even two, three season in the majors as being a stud and then a bad start this season followed by a recovery, maybe. That's not the case. He has never even had one season where he's been close to being a stud and he's almost 28 already. Benefits of the doubt can't be applied evenly across the board. Some have earned it, some haven't. Tulo has, Gibson hasn't.
  9. jimmer
    Sure, as soon as Gibson has been a stud for a decade like Tulo has we can consider that. Here's hoping that happens even one season in his career. Remember, he's only got two full seasons (2016 and 2017) before he's over the hill (30) so he's running out of time. BTW, Tulo easily has the best OPS of any shortstop in baseball...even with May (which I didn't forget I just said I don't put much weight in it considering a ton of history and what he's done the other months). Does Gibson have that same track record in the majors where we can really put aside a month and say that's not him? Yeah, no...
  10. jimmer
    Tulo's OPS in 2013: .931 Tulo's OPS in 2014: 1.035 This year: Tulo's OPS in Mar/Apr: .847 Tulo's OPS in June: .965 Tulo's OPS in July: .948 Tulo's May OPS in May .677 I'm not concerned about that one month. I don't think it's indicative of his talent.
  11. jimmer
    Just last year, the two shortstops with the most WAR were Peralta and Tulo. They each had 5.3 WAR. Took Tulo 91 games to get that. Took Peralta 157 :-) And I nominate the following for the 'WTF stat of the day': the Twins had the highest WAR from the shortstop position last year. (Rockies sub shortstops, absolutely pathetic last year)
  12. jimmer
    He was the one I wanted over Gordon if we were going to draft a shortstop.
  13. jimmer
    IMO, the reasoning behind the Span trade was sound. The execution was bad.
  14. jimmer
    That would be a good reason to find other things to do besides watch Twins games.
  15. jimmer
    whatever reason, it was an easy call to say that it was a horrible and needless trade.
  16. jimmer
    or any season...
  17. jimmer
    Pretty much this. Definitely not hindsight, that trade was slammed from the beginning by everyone I know. And, BTW, prior to getting Capps, we lost one game after Rauch was brought in to close the game. One. Where was the urgency? Getting a mediocre closer for a playoff run is not 'going for it'
  18. jimmer
    Why do you think it's unreasonable to expect he maintain an OPS over .800 through age 35? I don't get that argument. I mean, I don't see a defender like Tulo needing to move off shortstop at 33, 34 or 35 either. This isn't a guy who has been poor on defense most of his career like Jeter who looked even worse as he approached 40. This guy has been a quality defender for years and is 30. He has a long way to go to be bad enough to move him off the position. But back to the OPS thing, I really don't get the notion a hitter like him couldn't maintain a .800 OPS. in 5 of his last 7 seasons, his OPS has been over .900. Chipper lead the league in OPS at 35.
  19. jimmer
    That's pretty much asking a team to be as conservative as possible because the team is more scared to take a chance than reap the benefits of taking a chance. He has five seasons left on his contract. Still 35 (barely) when his contract ends unless we are in the playoffs in 2020.
  20. jimmer
    After 30? So, basically, never sign a quality FA? Nor should one trade for a great player at 30 or older? We should just assume that since there are a examples of players dropping off it will happen to every player? One could look at many other players and not see such a dropoff at that age 30. He has 5 more seasons on his contract., not 9, 10. He'd be 35 when the 2020 regular season ends. Hardly over the hill with one foot in the grave.
  21. jimmer
    Another thing that hasn't really been mentioned is Tulo's reputation for being a leader. In his rookie year, even the veterans were talking about him being THE leader of the team. He has the talent and all the intangibles so many believe are imperative. He's the whole package.
  22. jimmer
    Well, the man had a 171 wRC+ just last year and 141 in 2013. Additionally, there is still plenty of this season left, but I agree with you. If he stays below 120 wRC+ and isn't saving runs, it's an issue. Of course, May was truly a horrendous month for him (wRC+ of 64. Has he ever been that bad in a month?). Now May counts for sure, but his wRC+ in June was in the 140s and in July it was in the 150s. Much closer to the 170s he had last year and more like the historical Tulo.
  23. jimmer
    I'm not sure how soon that will be though. He turns 31 this year, not 36, 37. I don't think he's washed up at the position in a year or two as some suggest. I think he'll be above average to average for the next four seasons at least and his offense will likely still be good too. He doesn't have to be elite on both sides of the ball forever. He likely is very good for the short term and the next three, four years.
  24. jimmer
    Not sure Gibson and Berrios should be grouped together. Gibson isn't some young prospect, he'll be 28 this year. He is what he is. He is an okay, nothing special, middle of the road #3 type starter. Which is good to have, but nothing that should stop a team from trading for a player like Tulo.
  25. jimmer
    In 2013, with 1029 innings played, he had 6 DRS. In 700 or so innings played in 2014, he had 7 DRS. 7 DRS in 700 or so innings. Just last year. This season, there are 5 shortstop with that many DRS. THIS year he has dropped off. One year isn't a trend. Will he go back to double digit DRS as he moves farther away from 30, no? But judging offense or defense or pitching on just one year (or in this case 80 or so games)? How many times do we have to learn that lesson?
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