sthpstm

The only argument I can make on Dozier is that he actually hit better at the 4 spot than the 1 spot last year. And yes, it was a SSS but it was far and away the most at bats he's had at the 4 spot in the majors. Maybe he prefers the 1 spot because that's almost all he's done. More time at the 4 spot, and success there, and he might change his mind.

When Falvey or Levine have made comments to the effect of the gift that the Pohlads have given by not requiring them to make decisions based solely on money, I think of Phil Hughes. The contract extension was a huge error as many have stated. Being a TR move, I think he would feel more pressure to keep him in the rotation than the new guys. I realize most pitchers' numbers get worse the 2nd and 3rd time through the order, and Hughes certainly does. If you compare his (somewhat limited) RP numbers only to SP 1st time through the order numbers, he still has been just so much better as a RP. I think we move him to pen; maybe there is a Wade Davis/Andrew Miller-lite that can recoup some value from the contract.

That was my thinking, but certainly the owners thought through that potential and either didn't think it would happen or that if it did, it would have minimal negative effect (this is more of a question than a phrase).

In regards to the international spending limits, will this open up these markets and players to other leagues (Japan, Korea, etc.)? If they do not have these strict limits, could teams over there start outbidding MLB clubs for the top under-25 prospects?

I'm a little behind on this thread, but has anyone brought up Wolfson's mentioning the Phillies as having interest in Dozier? Initially, I found this quite perplexing, but then I thought a little more. The Dodgers need a leadoff hitter, someone with good OBP and some speed, probably more than they need a slugger, particularly if they bring back Turner. Howie Kendrick (.255/.326/.366) and Chase Utley (.252/.319/.396) were their lead off hitters last year. Kendrick is now gone; Utley is a free agent. Maybe the Phillies trade Cesar Hernandez (.294/.371/.393) to the Dodgers, opening up second base to trade for Dozier.

I don't think it's wise to expect a 28 and 32 year old suddenly learned to hit and that they won't dive back down offensively next year. If nothing else, check out their jumps in BABIP. And as others have stated or inferred, Castro needs to be employed on a fairly strict platoon against RH pitchers; his stats against LH pitchers were brutal (.478 OPS vs .757 against RH). You guys are right, his overall numbers are terrible, but get a guy who hits LH pitchers (Murphy, or maybe Chris Gimenez), and you have solid numbers against both LH and RH pitchers. By Baseball Prospectus numbers, their pitch framing stats are not close, at all. And their improvements over him in the other areas, were not as great as you imagine them to be. FRAA Adj is Baseball Prospectus's measurement for catchers using Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) that "is augmented with framing, throwing and blocking contribution" and "is then added to the 'normal' FRAA components, such as fielding ground balls, to generate a total FRAA for the catcher." By FRAA Adj, these 2 are not even close to Castro. Butera is at .8, Herrmann at -4.9 (MLB only), and Castro at 16.8. In other words, average, poor and excellent. Falvey, Levine, and Baseball Prospectus disagree with you and laloesch and others here on your assessment. Perhaps we all, myself included, would benefit from a great understanding of BP's catching analytics. And maybe we can give the new guys a chance to install their systems and players before announcing we know better than they and some statistical organizations do.

Haha, yes, completely. Extraneous movement? I just keep replaying in mind Suzuki running his glove through and way out of the strike zone to catch a pitch that missed its spot, was technically a strike but called a ball thanks to the magic of Suzuki.

Who do you think they should have acquired?

He's not a free agent, but I think Derek Norris is still worth a look, particularly if you think Garver can be effective by mid-season. He gets good defensive ratings, but what little I can find on framing is mixed. He used to be okay, then took at dive in early 2015 before climbing back up. I would be curious how he rated in 2016. If it is okay, he may be worth a try.

I think the Stewart is washed up crowd forgets that he may very well be a late bloomer in honing his craft. He didn't focus on baseball as much as most top draft picks do and so, as I recall, patience was preached. But everyone seems to have forgotten it. There are examples of pitchers with low strikeout rates in the minors becoming productive major league starters who improve their strikeout rates over time. I know it's neither typical nor what we would like but it happens. With his stuff, Stewart seems as likely a candidate to turn it around as Keuchel, or anyone before him who has.

First and foremost, Falvey will change the philosophy of drafting, developing, and working with minor league and major league pitchers. Who he determines to fit into that philosophy, I couldn't guess, but my point is this will be less about the pieces changes and more about the system that produces and works with those pieces changing.

And Berardino got the same quote. Do you think the article on the Twins website would be there if it weren't all but complete?

Baxendale is a near lock for me in the same way Rogers was going into 2016. Thanks to being a starter for most of his time in the minors, he's had plenty of experience and has very little to nothing left to prove. His 35 innings in AAA have been very good. He was sufficient as a minors starter but his stuff can play up in the bullpen. He can start as a long reliever or a 6th/7th inning guy depending the other bullpen pieces.

I think I have more reasons to cheer for the Cubs to win the World Series. I like McLeod. The Dodgers will become more desperate and may make a trade favorable to us depending on what weaknesses show up in their post season performance.

Hard to disagree with the general sentiment here. Assuming Baxendale's move to the bullpen was permanent, I see no reason he shouldn't be a near lock. He's had plenty of minors experience and likely would have moved quickly if he wasn't starting. So, Kintzler (you need a little experience in this pen/won't cost much), Chargois, Rogers, Boshers (outside of ERA, his numbers are solid), Baxendale, Duffey, and two of Pressley, Wimmers, Light, Dean, Hildenberger. And since we're not signing a top FA, I wouldn't do too much in the way of FA signings as we should have plenty of young depth behind these.

Agreed - I don't think people saying trade Santana (and Dozier) expect the return to be players that will make the Twins better next year but rather better in 2018/2019 and beyond. Could everything go well next year with the offense and the pitching is not completely awful and the Twins make a worst to competitive turnaround? I guess stranger things have happened (see the Orioles current team), but i don't see that as a viable strategy. I want a strategy that will build a perennial contender and in my view the offense/defense should be settling in by 2018 and so we need a pitching staff that will coincide with it. Trading Santana and Dozier for SP's to add to Berrios and be around or above Gonsalves/Jay/Mejia is more certain than keeping your currently solid veterans who will not be around or not be as good by that point.

Keeping Santana seems like a very TR move - let's keep him and hope 4 other starters exceed any past results and reach their absolute ceilings and the offense maintains or improves slightly we can be a .500 team competing for a wild card spot. I hope the Pohlad's didn't fire TR just to appease fans and just hire someone who will keep the same philosophy. We are going to lose 100 games this year and have been dreadful for most of the past 6 years. We need to rebuild a SP rotation for 2018/2019 that can hopefully coincide with our top hitting prospects developing. Since prospects miss all the time, we need to fill that pipeline with 2-3 more SP's in the AA/AAA range.

I completely disagree with the idea that no one will give up good, upper level minors, nearly ready for the MLB, players for Santana. We got Adalberto Mejia for the Eduardo Nunez, who has played well for about 1 year. Surely we can do better for Santana. Sell high on an aging player! While I appreciate optimism, the idea that the Twins should be built to compete in 2017 is just unrealistic. Trade Santana for pieces that you believe will help in 2018/2019, and beyond. Yes, you lose a major piece of your current team, but if you're current team is terrible you suck it up and deal him to ensure you have more potential pieces for years that you are building towards.

I'm on board with filling the pipeline, but we can't ignore catching depth (lack of). I'd be targeting Barnes and Brock Stewart (because I don't think you can get De Leon, but try by all means). I'd also trade Santana - the Rockies seem like a team that could use a veteran that's not De La Rosa to team with their young guys. Maybe we could pry Marquez and Freeland or one of those plus a Castellani. I want to win in 2017, but I just don't see it. All these guys could be up in 2017 and hopefully making positive contributions by 2018/2019.

Do you not consider Duffey an option for the 5th spot next year?

If he is the type that will age well into his low 30's, will deliver good innings consistently, and the options/extra years are affordable, you can take that risk. You mentioning something earlier doesn't make it right. Others can disagree.

But the point of the extension is to give the team an affordable year or two (or options) in his free agent years. If the team can't have the defense improved to good/average by 2019/2020 (preferably 2018) then we have bigger problems.

I agree with trying to extend Gibson while his value may be down. How much more confident would he be and competent would he look with a good defense behind him all year.

Does anyone know specifics on Gonsalves? How is his slider/cutter working? Has he added any speed to his fastball? As for Stewart, I think we need to continue being patient. He's only 21, in AA, and unless his stuff has regressed and/or not developed, hopefully he can continue working through becoming a pitcher.

But aren't all of these guys recent acquisitions that they added once their turnaround began. They weren't long time Cubs. If Dozier can bring you core pieces for 2018 and a couple of years after, trade him and then add what you need when you get closer to competing. The Twins have a lot of nice, potential pieces in the low minors. If things go well by 2018 you can look to trade these assets and/or sign FA's to supplement your core. But you have to trade veteran players at peak value, before their decline, if you're not competing and not likely to compete soon.