diehardtwinsfan

That's a ridiculous way to think about it, as it's a straw man and a completely unrealistic scenario. With runners on 1st and 3rd and 0 outs, what are the odds that the team scores a run? With bases loaded and 0 outs, what are the odds for the batting team? With runners on first and second with one out, what are the odds? With a run in, and no one on with no outs, what are the odds that the team at the plate scores anymore? Letting that run in for the double play eliminates the big inning. Would I approach it differently in a win or die playoff game? Maybe, but stopping the bleeding is more important, and being down 2-0 or 3-0 really means little as either way, the offense is going to have to step up and do its job.

Well let's see.. no guarantee the runner on 3rd is even going to break, and if he takes the time to check, the double play just ended, so you are likely looking at runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out or possibly the bases loaded, but I highly doubt you end up with runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out because they nailed the guy coming home. That said, speaking strictly from an odds stand point, the odds are not in your favor tha tyou get out of that inning with 1 down and runners on 1st and 2nd. Getting the DP pretty much ends the threat. If you don't want runners scoring, don't put runners on the corners with no outs, as the odds say the other team is going to score at least one run in that scenario.

The Twins scored one run yesterday... they were down 2-0 in the first... Not sure what game you watched, but it was over before he booted that double play.

I would always trade a run for a double play, even in a tight game. I don't think that move was inexecusable at all.

I see your point, except that Liriano has yet to hit the velocity he had back in 2006 too, just saying... For Liriano, much of this is just confidence, something he had tons of in 2006 and hasn't had a lot of since.

Pretty much this.. Anyone in the league could have had him for a C level prospect, but didn't bite due to cost. Boston got him for far less then what he would have had if Minnesota had kept him... that's the down side to the CBA and arbitration. You can also argue that he would have never become what he is now had he stayed..

Since when was Revere a .300 hitter at the ML level?

None, but it's politically incorrect these days, so that's what you get... I don't smoke, though I think this is dumb. I don't live up in Minny anymore, so I don't know if smokers paid for the stadium with a sin tax... if they did, they should be livid.

well, this is for bold predictions, soooo...... Twins win the World Series.

The pen will succeed/fail with the rotation. If the starters can go 6-7 consistently, the pen, while not dominant, will be fine. If they cannot, look out below.

Nice take Nick.

I understand the frustration, but the for the life of me, I cannot think of a minor leaguer that got dumped in this manner and ended up with a great career. The Twins are usually criticized for holding on to a guy too long and losing value (Restovich, Ryan, Buchanan). It's kind of a fine line, because you don't know who is going to develop and who isn't.

I get the sentiment here... though at the moment I'm a bit optimistic about them as I woudln't be surprised if Maloney and Burton are pleasant surprises for this team. I think Duensing can go back to his former self where he gets an inning with two lefites and a righty and dominates... That said, there's something to be said for the fact that a bull pen failure is often the result of starting pitching failure. The Twins had lots of that last year, in part due to injuries, and in part due to shoddy defense pretty much everywhere, and in part due to Liriano not being able to throw strikes. I suspect the Twins pen will be much better if those 3 big issues are put to rest. You cannot reasonably expect a pen to do well when starters are not getting past the 5th nearly enough. That's where having a nice mix of innings eaters and K guys comes into play. Liriano and Baker can get a nice amount of Ks and extend the game a bit on their own, though in some cases, they have problems finishing games due to throwing too many pitches. Pavano, Blackburn, and Marquis are much more dependent on their defenses, particularly up the middle. I'm hoping the up the middle disaster is gone now, because if it is, those 3 will do a bit better.

This sounds great until you watch a game and see a manager make a move that you and everyone else watching the game simultaneously scratches their heads... and it predictably fails (see multiple moves in ALDS 2004 Game 2 as prime examples). Now I'm not one to say that the right moves would have for certain won that game, as we cannot know, but what Gardenhire did in that game (and in many others) is not put the team in the best position to win the game. This is probably the biggest area that most people get frustrated about Gardy. He doesn't put his team in the best position to win games far more often than we'd like, and to make it worse, he overmanages games against the AL east because of whatever inferiority complex he has. The other problem is that I see no learning going on. The Twins have been blessed to have 2 every day players for a few years now that can OBP around .400 if things are going well. He leads off with Span, and then drops a black hole in the number 2 spot before Mauer. The one time Mauer did bat second, we were scoring somewhere between 5 and 6 runs a game, yet Gardenhire inexplicably stopped doing it. The same can be said for his treatment of younger players/favorites, pitch counts, the pen, etc. I do realize that some of these traits tend to lead to successes in other areas (like the club house motiviation issues that we in the sabermetric world tend to denigrate), but I'd think at one point, he'd adjust his game just a bit.... That said, I'm not sure I agree that it's only worth a game or two... If everyone is making the same mistakes, it's only a matter of time until a manager rises to the top and wins an extra 6 games due to good coaching...

Other than the Twins talking points, I don't know anyone who sung the praises of that signing... especially since we lost a high draft pick in the process. For what was paid, we could have picked up two pretty decent relievers and left an open competition for the closers role. As for the deadline, I'm not sure if we will be buyers or sellers, so I think that's largely moot. Given the state of the farm system, I don't think I'd be willing to trade Benson or Hicks. I'd be open to dealing an DB Romero/Angel Morales if they were to break out, but no one would want just that. They'd ask for Sano and Arcia. The Twins would be better off getting in a bidding war for the ace than to trade unless someone is having a firesale and parts with one cheaply.

from the sounds of it, he's trending in the right direction.. not quite sure it would go to this extreme, but to see a slight uptick to league average or a bit better doesn't seem unreasonable.

I'm surprised no one has talked about his pen management... leave your guy out there for an inning or two, not to throw 5 pitches to 1 batter. The pen would be much better off for that long term.

Under on DH. Over at 1st. (I think the hitting spike and transition to DH this spring is not accurate and it has more to do with trusting his wrist). I really hope for an over on the slash stats. When healthy and productive, he's quite capable of posting an OPS near 1.00. I think your .830 is a bit low if he's healthy... If he's not... well, it will be a long season again.

I'm liking Parmalee just because between him, Doumit, and Plouffe, Revere will be spending time as a 4th OF where he's best served. The pen is going to go the way of the starting rotation. If they can go deep into games on a consistent basis, then I'm really not too worried about it, but they have to be consistenly getting into the 6th/7th. They didn't do that last year, and it showed. The only real headscratcher that I see is that I cannot, for the life of me, figure out why Burnet made the team. I think he'd have been best served by being optioned and spending some time in AAA figuring out how to get his mojo back. I don't like the idea of him figuring it out up here. Hopefully, he gets plenty of low leverage situations where the offense has gone nuts and the SP has done well, because I don't trust him in tight games.

for some reason, I thought there was more reason for hope in Baltimore... this makes it sound like it's going to be a long year there.

I'm not sure how you can argue that Parmalee hasn't earned it. He had a very nice spring following a very nice September which followed a nice second half in NB. I won't be surprised in the least if he ends up getting sent down due to adjustments that ML pitchers will make against him, but he's done what has been asked of him. I think what people forget is that Chris started out very promising and the Twins tinkered quite a bit with his swing to increase his contact rate. That sapped his power for a couple of years, though it's looking like it's coming back. That's not a bad thing, and to add to it, there are plenty of decent hitters on this team that should offer him some reasonable protection as well. I think management was right on Dozier. Unlike Parmalee, there isn't much room for him just yet. Like Parmalee, he could still use some time playing every day in Rochester, so it made more sense. That was the big difference between the two. I have no doubt in my mind that Dozier will be up at somepoint this season, unless Luke Hughes manages to take over starting at 2nd and never looks back. Otherwise, he will probably be the starting SS next year.

If he's the old Joe, then I'd take the over (albeit very slightly) on just about everything except RBIs. The question is his health. It's spring, so I'll be an optimist for now.

I'm not sure I get the Burroughs move as much... If it's upside, let him figure it out in AAA and force his way there. I also don't get Burnet. I loved his minor league numbers before he hit the bigs, but he's been a wreck pretty much ever since. I think he would have been best served by being optioned to AAA to work on things in a lower pressure situation.... That said, there's good reason to be excited. Most of the question marks on this team are looking positive.

Mauer, Morneau, and Liriano all rebound nicely. Hughes forces his way into the lineup every day. Capps stomach explodes after attempting a Minneapolis buffet marathon. Perkins replaces him and becomes the new closer and never lets go of the job.

He's also been injured for good portions of the following 3 years... I agree that there should be tempered expectations, but let's not pretend there isn't potential there... and it isn't like he's replacing Robinson Cano either...