diehardtwinsfan

Yeah, I'm in San Jose this week and connected via Vegas... I'm already thinking of playing that Wheel of Fortune game that has the 3.5M grand prize during my return layover on Friday.

Good Lord, Norris isn't that good. He isn't even getting a 7/9 K rate and he has an approximate 2:1 K/BB ratio. The switch to the AL has hurt him, though his HR rate is a bit down this year. I don't mind acquiring him for a reasonable price, but no way I trade prospects like that for a couple of years of Norris.

Pass.

Generally the rookie league guys don't pitch that many innings... Part of that I'm sure is that many of these kids already played a full season so they are getting their arms stretched back out... Part is that they've likely pitched more already this year than ever before...

You are correct, it wasn't as thin as I thought it would be. Though on further thought, a good number of the "good" aquisitions really weren't options for various reasons. The Twins were in on Liriano, he wanted to go elsewhere. Peavy wasn't really an option, neither were Greinke and Sanchez. I doubt Lohse would have been interested in returning here too. That's half of the list, and not many people were screaming for the likes of Kuroda, Colon, and Feldman. Santana was technically a trade, though the Twins could have had him for something slightly better than Anthony Slama. When I did my 2013 blog, I think I recommended they send Slama to the Angels for Haren... It was the wrong choice clearly, but they could have done something similar to get Santana. On the meciocre side, we definitely could have gotten some of those guys, but they would have been marginal upgrades, certainly not difference makers.

I took this off of John's list in the other thread. I didn't double check every contract, but I did check these two. Baseball cube had Peavy signing a 2/29M deal for 2013-2014 seasons. I'm guessing the White Sox took care of this before he actually hit the market, so yeah, we technically had no shot there. That's one less good pitcher off the market. Lewis looks similar here with a 1/2M deal. I should have looked at Santana a bit closer. The Angels executed a 13M option and then traded him to the Royals for 26 year old AAA relief pitcher Brandon Sisk. Sisk kind of looks like the Royals version of Anthony Slama. Yes, he technically wasn't on the market, but he could have been had for a song. Of note though, at 13M, that would have sucked up pretty much all of the money TR had to spend.

I think most of us didn't do well. The names I heard the most (that were realistic) were Haren, Jackson, Saunders, and Marcum. One of those guys earned his salary.

I meant to put it in my post that I grabbed all contract information off of thebaseballcube.com. I thought Liriano did 2/7 deal, but I know it also got renegotiated when he hurt himself this winter, so I'm not sure the exact amount. It also was incentive laden.

Good game for Melotakis.

yeah, it's going to be interesting to see how he rounds out his top 20 given that not many names will drop off and a case could be made for quite a few being added. Wouldn't be surprised if John has 25 guys ranked C+ or better.

I'd argue this is a better use of our unspent resources that will exist over the next couple of seasons than anything else they can do. The kid has had a couple years off so not nearly as much mileage on the arm as some other pitchers his age. I know the Twins have scouted him, so if he passed those tests, I think they should do it... Plus, this doesn't count against any caps. Of course it's not my money.

Doubtful. I think most of us would love that, and while Owings is no Bogarts, he's a pretty decent prospect that should be able to garner more than KC...

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2104-A-return-to-the-2013-FA-pitching-market-half-way-through-the-season

Here you go. http://twinsdaily.com/2104-return-2013-fa-pitching-market-half-way-through-season.html

In light of John's recent suggestion, I went ahead and compiled the results of the 2013 free agent pitching market. I excluded pitchers that ended up as relievers, and I excluded pitchers such as baseballs version of Gandolf the Gray (Jamie Moyer) who did not sign. The results were surprisingly better than I thought they'd be, but I'm not so certain that we at Twins Daily would have gotten them right. I'm too lazy to look up all of the suggestions from last winter, but the names that I remember being tossed around were either unrealistic (Grienke, Sanchez, etc) or have horribly performed (Jackson, Haren, Marcum). Some of the multi-year deals obviously need to be vetted in terms of the length of their deal, and I suspect guys like Lohse and Greinke will not look so good at the end of their contracts. One interesting observation is that the cubs took 3 gambles in the FA pitching market. One (Scott Feldman) worked out very well for them. One (Scott Baker) flushed 5.5M down the toilet. One (Carlos Villanueva) may also net them a prospect. Despite their record, the cubs are a large market team, so they essentially used 15M this offseason to buy some prospects in what is a lost year for them. Given that their fan base will show up no matter how poor a product they put on the field, this isn't a bad strategy at all for the lovable losers. The Good: Zack Greinke: 8-2 3.36 ERA in 91 innings. Lost time due to an injury sustained in a fight. Jake Peavy: 7-4 4.19 ERA in 73 innings. Also spent time on the DL. Peripherals better than Greinke so far. Anibal Sanchez: 7-7 2.85 ERA in 98 innings. Though the record hasn’t indicated it, he has pitched like an ace striking out more than 10 per 9 innings and walking less than 3. Hiroki Kuroda: 9-6 with a 2.65 ERA in 125 innings. Has pitched quite well for the 15M contract the Yankees gave him, though his K rate is significantly lower than the others, he may regress. Kyle Lohse: 6-7 with a 3.49 ERA for the Brewers. Peripherals don’t look too good, but he’s gotten the results thus far and justified his 3/33M contract. Ervin Santana: 6-6 with a 3.18 ERA for the Royals in 130 innings. Has to date justified his 1/13 contract and will likely be able to parlay that into a multiyear deal this offseason. Francisco Liriano: 9-4 with a 2.44 ERA in 81 innings for the Pirates. He signed a 1M deal with a second year option that will likely be picked up. He has been by far the best value deal of the class as he’s pitched like an ace. He turned down an offer from the Twins, and I’d say there’s a good chance he would not have pitched that well had he returned. Scott Feldman: 8-6 with a 3.86 ERA. Cubs were able to flip him and his 1/6 contract for prospects. Bartolo Colon: 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA for the A’s. Great value for 3M. The mediocre: Ryan Dempster: 5-8 with a 4.24 ERA in 110 innings for the Redsox. He’s been just better than league average, and not quite justifying the 2 year 26.5M contract. Jeremy Guthrie: 9-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 126 innings for the Royals. I hate to see how this will turn out in years 2 and 3 of his 25M contract. Joe Saunders: 9-8 with a 4.28 ERA in 120 innings. Great value from the 6.5M contract he got this offseason. Carlos Villanueva: 2-6 with a 4.16 ERA in 84 innings for the Cubs. Signed a 2/10M contract and has earned his keep. Erik Bedard: 3-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 98 innings for the Astros. Could possibly be flipped for a prospect. Kevin Correia: I don’t think I need to summarize this one. He’s earned his contract, though not much more. Jason Marquis: 9-5 with a 4.05 ERA. Probably the best of the mediocre group and cheap at 3M. I somehow doubt he was going back to MN. Roberto Hernandez: The player formerly known as Carmona is 5-10 with a 4.9 ERA for the Rays. Only cost 3.25M. The Bad: Edwin Jackson: 6-10 with a 5.11 ERA in 100 innings. He has not lived up to his potential. Brandon McCarthy: 2-4 with a 4.99 ERA in only 66 innings. He was cheap at 2/16.5, but has not pitched nearly enough, or well enough to justify the contract. Dan Haren: 4-10 with a 5.61 ERA for the Nationals. Has not justified his 1/13 contract. Shaun Marcum: 1-10 with a 5.29 ERA for the Mets. At least only cost them 4M. Joe Blanton: 2-12 with a 5.53 ERA for the Angels. Not worth the 2/15 contract he signed. Roy Oswalt: 0-4 with a 7.64 ERA in only 17 innings for the Rockies. He has pitched well in AA. Freddy Garcia: 3-5 with a 5.77 ERA for Baltimore. At least he was cheap. Jeff Francis: 2-5 with a 6.58 ERA for the Rockies. Cost 1.5M. Chien-Ming Wang: 1-1 with a 7.13 ERA for the Jays in only 24 innings. Singed for .5M. Jonathan Sanchez: 0-3 with an 11.85 ERA for the Pirates. The ugly: Colby Lewis: Has been paid 2M to not pitch. Chris Young: He did not sign a major league deal, so this really didn’t not hurt his team. He has not pitched well in AAA thus far. Scott Baker: I want get paid 5.5M to never set foot on a mound. Daisuke Matsuzaka: Signed a minor league deal and has yet to pitch in the majors. Carlos Zambrano: Signed a minor league deal and has yet to pitch in the majors. Has pitched well in the minors. Aaron Cook: Signed a minor league deal and is getting shelled in the PCL. Kip Wells: Signed a minor league deal and is getting shelled in the PCL. Breakdown: Good: 9 players Mediocre: 8 players Bad: 10 players Ugly: 7 players Since Ryan was clearly looking for shorter term deals, we can look back with hindsight to see who was the best signing. The best contracts overall were for Liriano (who turned down an offer to return), Feldman, and Colon. Both signed short term contracts and have vastly outperformed them. We all know the enigma that is Liriano, so it doesn't bear repeating. There's good question as to whether or not he would have pitched this well in Minnesota. Many of the mediocre contracts would have played out similarly to Kevin Correia, who the Twins signed. None of these guys would be difference makers overall, but most of them would be upgrades to our current rotation. If money wasn't an option, and this was an exercise in throwing darts, approximately 50% of the players that signed would have performed well enough to earn their contract. Given that a number of the good players, such as Sanchez, Grienke, Liriano, and Lohse weren't likely to come here due to either a large contract or a former history, Ryan's odds of succeeding were less than that. The Twins would likely be in different shape had they signed Feldman, Colon, and Kuroda this offseason, but these were also not names that many were arguing for, and at 15M, Kuroda would have sucked up the entire budget. As a result, I'm not sure the posters at Twins Daily would have assembled a much better rotation than what Ryan did, and it most certainly would have cost more.

In light of John's recent suggestion, I went ahead and compiled the results of the 2013 free agent pitching market. I excluded pitchers that ended up as relievers, and I excluded pitchers such as baseballs version of Gandolf the Gray (Jamie Moyer) who did not sign. The results were surprisingly better than I thought they'd be, but I'm not so certain that we at Twins Daily would have gotten them right. I'm too lazy to look up all of the suggestions from last winter, but the names that I remember being tossed around were either unrealistic (Grienke, Sanchez, etc) or have horribly performed (Jackson, Haren, Marcum). Some of the multi-year deals obviously need to be vetted in terms of the length of their deal, and I suspect guys like Lohse and Greinke will not look so good at the end of their contracts. One interesting observation is that the cubs took 3 gambles in the FA pitching market. One (Scott Feldman) worked out very well for them. One (Scott Baker) flushed 5.5M down the toilet. One (Carlos Villanueva) may also net them a prospect. Despite their record, the cubs are a large market team, so they essentially used 15M this offseason to buy some prospects in what is a lost year for them. Given that their fan base will show up no matter how poor a product they put on the field, this isn't a bad strategy at all for the lovable losers. The Good: Zack Greinke: 8-2 3.36 ERA in 91 innings. Lost time due to an injury sustained in a fight. Jake Peavy: 7-4 4.19 ERA in 73 innings. Also spent time on the DL. Peripherals better than Greinke so far. Anibal Sanchez: 7-7 2.85 ERA in 98 innings. Though the record hasn’t indicated it, he has pitched like an ace striking out more than 10 per 9 innings and walking less than 3. Hiroki Kuroda: 9-6 with a 2.65 ERA in 125 innings. Has pitched quite well for the 15M contract the Yankees gave him, though his K rate is significantly lower than the others, he may regress. Kyle Lohse: 6-7 with a 3.49 ERA for the Brewers. Peripherals don’t look too good, but he’s gotten the results thus far and justified his 3/33M contract. Ervin Santana: 6-6 with a 3.18 ERA for the Royals in 130 innings. Has to date justified his 1/13 contract and will likely be able to parlay that into a multiyear deal this offseason. Francisco Liriano: 9-4 with a 2.44 ERA in 81 innings for the Pirates. He signed a 1M deal with a second year option that will likely be picked up. He has been by far the best value deal of the class as he’s pitched like an ace. He turned down an offer from the Twins, and I’d say there’s a good chance he would not have pitched that well had he returned. Scott Feldman: 8-6 with a 3.86 ERA. Cubs were able to flip him and his 1/6 contract for prospects. Bartolo Colon: 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA for the A’s. Great value for 3M. The mediocre: Ryan Dempster: 5-8 with a 4.24 ERA in 110 innings for the Redsox. He’s been just better than league average, and not quite justifying the 2 year 26.5M contract. Jeremy Guthrie: 9-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 126 innings for the Royals. I hate to see how this will turn out in years 2 and 3 of his 25M contract. Joe Saunders: 9-8 with a 4.28 ERA in 120 innings. Great value from the 6.5M contract he got this offseason. Carlos Villanueva: 2-6 with a 4.16 ERA in 84 innings for the Cubs. Signed a 2/10M contract and has earned his keep. Erik Bedard: 3-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 98 innings for the Astros. Could possibly be flipped for a prospect. Kevin Correia: I don’t think I need to summarize this one. He’s earned his contract, though not much more. Jason Marquis: 9-5 with a 4.05 ERA. Probably the best of the mediocre group and cheap at 3M. I somehow doubt he was going back to MN. Roberto Hernandez: The player formerly known as Carmona is 5-10 with a 4.9 ERA for the Rays. Only cost 3.25M. The Bad: Edwin Jackson: 6-10 with a 5.11 ERA in 100 innings. He has not lived up to his potential. Brandon McCarthy: 2-4 with a 4.99 ERA in only 66 innings. He was cheap at 2/16.5, but has not pitched nearly enough, or well enough to justify the contract. Dan Haren: 4-10 with a 5.61 ERA for the Nationals. Has not justified his 1/13 contract. Shaun Marcum: 1-10 with a 5.29 ERA for the Mets. At least only cost them 4M. Joe Blanton: 2-12 with a 5.53 ERA for the Angels. Not worth the 2/15 contract he signed. Roy Oswalt: 0-4 with a 7.64 ERA in only 17 innings for the Rockies. He has pitched well in AA. Freddy Garcia: 3-5 with a 5.77 ERA for Baltimore. At least he was cheap. Jeff Francis: 2-5 with a 6.58 ERA for the Rockies. Cost 1.5M. Chien-Ming Wang: 1-1 with a 7.13 ERA for the Jays in only 24 innings. Singed for .5M. Jonathan Sanchez: 0-3 with an 11.85 ERA for the Pirates. The ugly: Colby Lewis: Has been paid 2M to not pitch. Chris Young: He did not sign a major league deal, so this really didn’t not hurt his team. He has not pitched well in AAA thus far. Scott Baker: I want get paid 5.5M to never set foot on a mound. Daisuke Matsuzaka: Signed a minor league deal and has yet to pitch in the majors. Carlos Zambrano: Signed a minor league deal and has yet to pitch in the majors. Has pitched well in the minors. Aaron Cook: Signed a minor league deal and is getting shelled in the PCL. Kip Wells: Signed a minor league deal and is getting shelled in the PCL. Breakdown: Good: 9 players Mediocre: 8 players Bad: 10 players Ugly: 7 players Since Ryan was clearly looking for shorter term deals, we can look back with hindsight to see who was the best signing. The best contracts overall were for Liriano (who turned down an offer to return), Feldman, and Colon. Both signed short term contracts and have vastly outperformed them. We all know the enigma that is Liriano, so it doesn't bear repeating. There's good question as to whether or not he would have pitched this well in Minnesota. Many of the mediocre contracts would have played out similarly to Kevin Correia, who the Twins signed. None of these guys would be difference makers overall, but most of them would be upgrades to our current rotation. If money wasn't an option, and this was an exercise in throwing darts, approximately 50% of the players that signed would have performed well enough to earn their contract. Given that a number of the good players, such as Sanchez, Grienke, Liriano, and Lohse weren't likely to come here due to either a large contract or a former history, Ryan's odds of succeeding were less than that. The Twins would likely be in different shape had they signed Feldman, Colon, and Kuroda this offseason, but these were also not names that many were arguing for, and at 15M, Kuroda would have sucked up the entire budget. As a result, I'm not sure the posters at Twins Daily would have assembled a much better rotation than what Ryan did, and it most certainly would have cost more.

I guess I had it the other way around. The Twins did contribute cash in the AJ trade though.

yes.

Santana rule V trade, money was sent over. AJ trade, money was sent over. I'd say from history, when Terry Ryan is offering to pick up salary, you are about to regret it.

I say pay their salaries as well. The payroll is already lower than it needed to be, and while I'm sure attendance is down, they are still making money. If that's the difference between picking up org filler and a 100-200 range prospect, do it.

That's interesting. The high fastball is typically the one that gets put in the seats.

I'm thinking about lipstick.

I'm wondering if they are going to keep Gonsalves and Stewart together much like they did Mauer and Morneau. The two are already rooming together and both are doing exceptionally well in the GCL thus far. I think they keep them together as long as their performance allows it.

I'm not as confident as you here. I suspect he heads to Rochester for at least part of the season. Part of that may be service time related, but I do think the Twins are going to have to figure out their MI throughout the remainder of this year and probably into next year. If Dozier keeps doing what he's been doing lately, they are going to have to consider moving him back to SS or trading him to make room for Rosario. Right now, I don't see Dozier having much value, and even if he hits well through the end of the season, I don't see him getting much... Now if he continues this next year, they either trade him or move him to SS. As for Florimon, he's done an OK job as well, but isn't exactly lighting the world on fire either. I suspect both Dozier and Florimon have played well enough to hold on to their jobs the rest of this year and into next, but if they falter, someone gets moved for Rosario.