John Bonnes

Five American League wild card contenders were separated by 2.5 games as of Tuesday afternoon. If you’re following the race between them, you’re undoubtedly heartened to see one of the Twins opponents facing the Blue Jays or Royals and equally miffed when they face Oakland or Seattle. The teams these contenders play are going to have some say about whom goes to the playoffs. But looking at the remaining schedules, it’s hard to say exactly which team has a clear advantage. The schedules are division-heavy, but all the teams face both the best and worst teams in their division. Let’s see if we can sort through them and determine if the Twins' remaining schedule works for or against their wild card hopes.First, let’s look at the raw numbers. Here are the five teams' remaining games. The opponents on the left are in order by worse record to best. Download attachment: Schedule Analysis 1.jpg The green teams are teams that are more than a couple of games below .500. The yellow teams are within a few games of .500. The red teams are more than a little above .500. There’s a lot of data there, but one thing that jumps out at me: the Twins have the fewest games against the other wild card contending teams. They only have six games (five after Tuesday night), while the other teams all have at least nine. But now I want to go back to those pretty colors. If you add up the games in those categories, the story becomes a little clearer: Download attachment: Schedule Analysis 2.jpg From this look, at least, the teams in the AL East have a pretty tough road. Baltimore has 18 games versus Toronto, New York and Kansas City, and the Rays face the same teams just three fewer times. The Twins face a dichotomy. One the one hand, they have a few more tough games than the Rangers or Angels. On the other hand, they have the most of any contender versus the “below .500” category. So it that a good schedule or a bad schedule? To figure that out, we’ll try to get a bit more precise. By looking at each opponent’s winning percentage, we can determine how a completely average team would fare against that schedule. When we do that, the Twins schedule becomes a bit uglier: Download attachment: Schedule Analysis 3.jpg Basically, the Twins record is about one loss tougher than average, while Texas record is about a half game easier than average. The Twins, despite having the most games against the “green” teams, have the second hardest schedule ahead of them. That’s because the teams the Twins face are at the top end of those categories I set up. The Royals, whom the Twins face more than any other team, should essentially be dark red. And the three green teams the Twins face – Detroit, Cleveland and Chicago – are the three toughest green teams in that category. The truth is that our initial confusion was probably justified – the remaining schedules for each team are close enough in overall competition to make a clear difference between them uncertain. One game or one-and-a-half games difference isn’t particularly significant in the randomness that is a pennant race. For instance, running into one of these team’s bottom half of the rotation versus their top half of the rotation can be a much larger difference than that one game spread. But the Twins schedule, seemingly, isn’t doing them any favors. As Twins fans watch their team's and their opponents' matchups on a daily basis, they’re more likely to be frustrated than pleased. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John watch the Twins defeat the Rays while talking about Buxton's place on the roster, the Twins crowded starting rotation, how you can promote your own future star at Harrys.com, how the Twins schedule compares to their rivals, giving up your first born child, the turnaround of the Twins bullpen and the joys of a pennant race, Miguel Sano statistics porn and west coast baseball. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

I"m often hesitant to call a guy up to the Bigs after only one breakthrough season, but that K/BB ratio really gives me confidence that he knows what he's doing at the plate right now. I don't really know how to do that with this lineup right now, but I'm excited for Kepler's future.

Listen, I agree that Nolasco will likely get another (hopefully healthy) chance. And I'm even optimistic that it might work out. But we're also got a numbers game going on here. Nolasco, Hughes and Santana are taking three spots. That leaves two spots for Milone, May, Duffey and Berrios, right? Which likely means some pretty unhappy people in April when Duffy and Berrios are in Rochester, or May is in the bullpen. (And it feels like I'm missing someone....) So while it isn't crazy to think Nolasco will be back, I can understand the frustration. It keeps depth, but does hurt future development of some important arms.

The acquisition of Jepsen and Cotts and the improvement that has resulted sort of drives home the point - the Twins didn't need to go get shutdown guys. The addition of two fairly average relievers (and a somewhat above average May) has meant a huge improvement in the reliability of the bullpen. And that's even after Perkins fell apart and was out hurt. That's what made the year so frustrating regarding the bullpen - they didn't need to do that much to make it acceptable. But they just refused to do those things. They kept trusting veterans (Stauffer, Fien, Duensing) that they hoped might come back, or guys that impressed by not giving up hits in the short term, but didn't have the stuff for long term success (Boyer, Thompson). And giving up on guys with legitimate stuff (Tonkin) because they gave up hits in the short term. And then only acquire one slightly above average arm at the deadline. It's bizarre. It's like as soon as Rick Anderson left, the whole organization forgot how to make a bullpen. It's just weird.

We’ve waited four long years to watch meaningful September games, so we're going overboard for 2015’s Twins Daily Touch ‘Em All Pub Crawl. This will be the biggest and best ever. PLEASE set aside the 19th of September, starting at noon on your calendar, then take a minute and tell your friends to set it aside too. While you’re at it, you may want to set a reminder for yourself the morning of Thursday, September 3rd, because that’s when tickets will go on sale, and we only have so much room in some of these bars.We’ll start releasing details on Monday, but with the help of our friends at Proximo Liquors, we’re going for it this year. All the bars are going to be within walking distance of Target Field. They’ll all be featuring free drinks from our friends at Proximo Liquors. There will be special prizes for anyone willing to hassle a Twins Daily writer. It should be one of the last really beautiful weekends of a fantastic Minnesota summer. We’ll be attending a critical game against the wild card contending Angels. And because we want to make it the biggest ever, you won’t believe the special early price we're offering. Trust me. Get this on your calendar immediately. We’ll start letting you in on the secret a bit more on Monday. Click here to view the article

You may think you have, but the Twins have 19 games on the road and 19 games at home. If they go 10-9 on the goad and 12-7 at home, that's 22 more wins or 85 wins total. 8 games over .500 might be enough to get that second wild card this year.

The value of a reliever versus the value of a starter is an interesting question. The most commonly cited metrics to show the value of a starter are innings pitcher and WAR, but really they're the same thing: WAR is higher because there are more innings and the value of those innings is all seen as the same. However, if you look at WPA (Win Probability Added) which takes into account how valuable those innings are, relievers often score higher. For instance, for the Twins, the top five are all relievers: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Nevertheless, I still think starters are more valuable - because they're rarer. You don't need metrics to show it, You need supply and demand. They're paid more. And while May is valualbe in that role this year, provided the Twins clear up some of the logjam in their rotation, he should probably be back as a starter next year.

I just realized, it's also "Hor Day!" What is Hor Day, you might ask? It's 8/25/2005 and I'm attending an afternoon game with a bunch of friends from work. We've done this a few times, so by now I know the Hormel Row of Fame Song is going to illicit some boisterous karaoke. Sometime around the fourth inning, it starts. When you are at the game (ba-ba-ba-bum) Are you in Hormel's Row of Fame? (ba-ba-ba-bum).. Except that this time the track gets stuck. If you are in the lucky seat (ba-ba-ba-bum) You'll win a Hor....skip You'll win a Hor....skip You'll win a Hor....skip By this time, the work friends and I are exchanging uncomfortable smiles. The skipping audio seems to goes on forever, but it was probably only three more times before the booth quickly faded it out. At which point I hear the guy behind me remark: "That WOULD be a lucky seat." For the record, I still know those friends with whom I was at the game, and they throw a party every year to commemorate it the weekend nearest to the game. I missed it this year because I was out of town, but The Voice of Reason™ and I are getting together with them tonight to watch the game.

Loved this, Riverbrian.

And an (unlikely) win in either place would: a. be unbelievably delicious b. slay a dragon that could get this team over the hump against both for the next decade c. be the kind of win that revs us a playoff run. I'm actually really looking forward to this possibility.

Aaron and guest co-host Parker Hageman of Twins Daily talk about Byron Buxton joining Miguel Sano for a bunch of wins, the Twins trading for Neal Cotts, Glen Perkins coming back sooner than expected, Aaron Hicks getting hurt, whether there's any hope for Joe Mauer, and gross middle-aged white guys. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

So to summarize: 1. He is the youngest players on the team, 2. playing a premium defensive position at a (reportedly) very high defensive level and 3. has a 636 OPS in a league with a 650 average OPS and.... 4. plate discipline that is trending in the right direction.... 5. at a position where the Twins seem to be short on solid options. That sounds legitimate to me. I don't know if we're talking someone who is going to make a national prospect list, and he might need to fend off the guy behind him, but that seems like someone who could have a major league career, even as a starter.

Molitor said his plan was to save May for later in the game because Perkins (and I suspect Jepsen & Fien) was unavailable. I actually thought, after I had hit publish, that it might have been cool to throw together a table showing who had pitched the last few days and how many pitches each had thrown so it was clearer what Molitor's strategy was. That would have been a good addition. I suppose in the classic "why save your best pitcher for the end" argument, Molitor could be criticized for that. I won't. I think he wanted May for the 9th and maybe some of the eighth and that was completely logical given that it was a close game and these games almost always need relief like that. Those innings are higher leverage than the 7th, because the Twins have fewer opportunities to come back after the 8th and none after the 9th. The other problem with inserting May there is that it requires him warming up for an inning he might never pitch and you can only do that so many times per game. If O'Rourke gets Gardner out, then May is warmed up and likely not coming into the 8th. And then he warms up again eighth when things looked dicey and might not be used. And then he warms up in the ninth. And let's not forget that he could've been warming up in the 6th for the same reasons. Sooner or later you just need to accept that you're going to need 3-5 arms to get through those innings one way or the other and it doesn't do you any good to get out of the 7th if you can't get out of the 9th. There is some game theory there that I don't think we've truly unpacked - kinda like keeping your best cards in your hands late when taking tricks in a card game. It makes sense to me.

The only things more embarrassing than the Minnesota Twins bullpen in Tuesday night’s 8-4 loss to the Yankees were the decisions that led to that bullpen. The bullpen only had two bad innings, an ugly disastrous detonation. But the fuse - the decisions that led to that explosion - show a pattern of both obliviousness and incorrect judgment that suggests that this problem isn’t going away soon.The Twins were forced to rely on Ryan O’Rourke and J.R. Graham in critical innings last night. O’Rourke is a rookie and lefty specialist. Graham is a Rule 5 draft pick who is primarily on the roster because if the Twins don’t keep him on the roster, they have to offer him back to the Braves. Those two were the bridge to the later innings because manager Paul Molitor was short-handed, partly because of the number of pitchers he had to use Monday night. But Monday’s game is only a fraction of the reason Molitor was short-handed. The bigger reason is that the bullpen has been both overused and short-handed since last Thursday when Twins management was confronted by Phil Hughes' back injury. To replace him for Friday’s start, they had a choice. Behind Door #1, they could call up JO Berrios, their top pitching prospect who was already scheduled to pitch Friday night in AAA-Rochester. Behind Door #2 was Trevor May, who has been their best reliever since the All-Star break. He had been a starting pitcher earlier this year and could throw 50 or so pitches, but then he would be unavailable to pitch in in the bullpen for several days. They chose Door #2. So May was not available the day before his start, when the Rangers scored the game-winning run off of Casey Fien in the eighth inning, an inning which May would have normally pitched. He was only able to pitch three innings in Friday’s game, meaning four other relievers had to throw 85 pitches to finish that game. And he was not available Saturday, Sunday or Monday either, forcing the Twins to use Kevin Jepsen and Glen Perkins in back-to-back-to-back games, which means they were not available on Tuesday night. So to review, the Twins decided to short their bullpen for five nights of their best reliever, so he could pitch the first three innings of one game during that stretch. They did this rather than call up a top-20 prospect with a 3.18 ERA and more strikeouts than innings pitched who also happened to have his start be that same night. A start, by the way, in which he threw a no-hitter for the first six innings. (And then got shelled in the seventh inning. But still.) The Twins just didn’t prioritize the bullpen. The questionable decisions didn’t end with the 8-4 loss, however. After the game, it was announced that Twins closer Glen Perkins would be flying back to the Twin Cities for an MRI and possibly a cortisone shot to relieve some neck pain with which he has been pitching. Perkins has turned from Mariano Rivera into Matt Capps since the All-Star break, leading to many wondering if he was healthy. Turns out, he wasn’t. And the Twins seemed to have known this. (And if they didn’t, they should have.) Which make the decision to only trade for one decent but not fantastic reliever at the deadline even more questionable. Jepsen has been a solid addition to the bullpen so far, but he’s never going to be a dominant closer. The reality is that it’s nearly impossible to paper over the rather large hole that removing Perkins would create, but if a team knows he’s hurt, isn’t getting at least a couple of arms – or one fairly dominant one – a priority? Again, the bullpen was not a priority. The questions go back further than July. Why was Tim Stauffer brought back from rehab so early (or at all)? Why was Aaron Thompson around into July when, over his last 23(!) games, he posted an ERA of 8.44 and struck out just three batters? Why haven’t the Twins been more aggressive in swapping out under-performing veterans like Brian Duensing, Brad Boyer and Casey Fien earlier this year? Why, if the bullpen is a priority, are they still trying to hide a Rule 5 draft pick out there? One answer to a lot of these questions could be that the Twins don’t have a lot of other options in the organization. But that just raises other questions which suggest that the dubious decisions go back further than just this year. For instance, the last several years, the Twins have loaded up on relievers in the draft, claiming they were going to develop their power arms into major league pitchers. At this point, the organization should be littered with them.So where are they? Even if the Twins didn’t focus on relievers in the draft, there is one other truth that might be the most damning: losing teams are always able to develop good bullpens. Losing teams have more flexibility on the 40-man roster to pick up intriguing arms. They have an earlier pick on the waiver wire. They have more opportunity to offer minor league free agents. Dozens of rules and market forces result in losing teams almost always having good bullpens. It’s the rest of the stuff – like scoring and starting pitching - that’s hard. Given four losing seasons, the Twins shouldn’t have been looking for bullpen help at the trade deadline. They should’ve been able to shop it. Tuesday night was just a couple of innings, but it’s a problem that has been building for years. Maybe even scarier, it’s a problem that management doesn’t seem to recognize it has, or doesn’t seem interested in addressing. This fuse has been burning for some time. Boom. Click here to view the article

August 5th marked the start of the Saints sixth of eight regular season home stands at CHS Field in 2015. The local nine once again took care of business on the field, sweeping both teams that visited St. Paul. And even though the Entertainment Team lost a key member and fan favorite, they were still able to deliver fun galore to everyone in attendance. Add all this together with what happened a couple days ago, and I'd say it's been a pretty good season so far.The Saints swept both the Lincoln Saltdogs and the Winnipeg Goldeyes during their last stand in Lowertown. In the process, they dropped their “magic number” to two. Awesome starting pitching, a shutdown bullpen, and clutch hitting were the keys to victory for the home team. My MVP for the stand is Robert Coe and Angelo Songco. Once again, I couldn't narrow it down to just one player. After you look at these stats you'll know why. Robert Coe, 2W, 16IP, 4H, 1ER, 10K Angelo Songco, .388, 6R, 2 2B, 2HR, 9RBI, 4BB To say Coe's week was dominant may be an understatement. He went the distance in his first start allowing only one hit, a leadoff single in the eighth. Prior to that he had a perfect game until his only walk of the night in the seventh inning. His second start was almost as impressive when he went seven innings allowing three hits and his only run of the home stand. Ben Szeremeta writes about the Saints regularly at SaintsTrain.com On the other side of the diamond, Songco continues to punish the baseball whenever it's within his reach, scoring at least one run in five of the six games and racking up a couple of four-RBI nights. His two home runs during the stand tied him for the team lead with Vinny DiFazio at thirteen on the year. There're quite a few scary guys in the Saints right now, but I think Angelo would be atop my “stay the hell away from him list” if I had one. Another homestand, another record broken at CHS Field. On Monday, August 10th the Saints set a new season attendance mark at 299,093 fans. This record was one we all expected to fall; the new place holds a couple thousand more fans than Midway did. But breaking it in only 37 games? That's just crazy support for a great team and an outstanding, beautiful new ballpark. We should all be proud as heck to be part of such a great year at our new summer home. The Entertainment Team suffered a rare loss Saturday night as PA Announcer Halsey Lindquist worked his last game with the Saints. Halsey and his family are moving out of state to greener pastures. He will be missed for being a charismatic, crazy dancing, ball of "Fun is Good" energy. His chemistry with the staff, and especially with partner in crime Lee Adams, was brilliant. I think the tattoo he has on his arm sums up his attitude and how we will all remember him perfectly. It just says, "Be Happy". And that's what he always was and what he made all of us over the last couple seasons: happy. We're gonna miss you Halsey, good luck! After Monday night's game the team traveled to Sioux City for a three-game showdown between the top two clubs in the league. The Saints and Explorers split the first two games of the series. Then prior to even playing Thursday night's game…Ladies and Gentlemen, you’re 2015 American Association North Division Champion, St. Paul Saints. It has a nice ring to it doesn't it? On August 13th the boys clinched the crown when Winnipeg lost a matinee game to Sioux Falls, mathematically eliminating the second place Goldeyes from contention. Following a small pregame celebration the boys continued on their road trip with one more game against the Explorers. The Saints unfortunately lost the last game 4-3 and the series 2-1, which ended their season-long series unbeaten streak. Next up the team traveled to Joplin for a three game set against the Blasters. After dropping the first game the Saints rebounded, winning the final two of the series. The team is now 19-1-2 in series this season and 61-19! The best team in the league returns home starting Tuesday, August 18th. The Sioux City Explorers (I think I smell revenge), and Sioux Falls Canaries both visit CHS Field for three games apiece. The road to the title has been a record-setting one for the Saints, filled with so many past marks blown away by this year’s team. But with one goal in mind all the other stuff doesn't seem to matter. This team has a desire to win for each other like I haven't seen in a long time. Combine that with a crazy amount of talent and, well, the sky's the limit. As they continue to show. Go Saints! TRAIN!!! Click here to view the article

I do think it's kind of cool that the Twins have a history of signing Saints players that are looking for a way back into the affiliated leagues. Thielbar, Hamburger and Boyer all spring to mind off the top of my head. I also think it's kind of cool that even for a player that never got to spend any time in the majors, he's still been able to play a game that he apparently loves and made a decent enough living to keep playing until he's 31 years old. And those memories include being a part of the Giants organization when they won a World Series and friends with several of the players in the majors right now. That's pretty cool.

Aaron and John talk about Phil Hughes getting hurt, Jose Berrios not being called up, Tyler Duffey's bounceback, being delayed by golf, sending your kids off to college, Torii Hunter getting old, Miguel vs. Miguel Sano, gambling problems, changing from a marathon to a sprint, strong-armed outfields, and celebrating the four-year anniversary of "Gleeman and The Geek." You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

During the Winnipeg Goldeyes most recent trip to CHS Field I was lucky enough to sit down and chat with second baseman, Brad Boyer. If you’re thinking the name sounds familiar, it should. Brad played for the St. Paul Saints in 2013 before having his contract purchased by the Minnesota Twins three quarters of the way through the season and reporting to Double-A New Britain for the rest of the year. But, more on that part of the conversation in a bit. We also talked a little about growing up, college and getting drafted, and a glimpse into the future.It all started when Brad was around four years old and he saw his first wiffle ball bat. "With the bat it was something. I picked it up and it really drew my attention growing up. I've always loved the craft of hitting. I'm a lefty with an open stance so watching Chipper Jones and his sweet smooth swing on Sports Center, that's who I wanted to build my game after. The way he carried himself playing twenty years. As a grinder and a superstar." It also didn't hurt his love of baseball that his family had Dodger season tickets. "Watching Kurt Gibson hit that home run in '88 against the A's when I was a young kid - it really brought out the passion in me. It brought out the life in me." Was he a star athlete growing up? That may be putting it mildly. While in high school the scouts and attention were never far away from Brad for three of the major sports. "It was a hectic schedule for the family you know, we were traveling all over the state. Great moments though, great moments. I definitely didn't want to just focus on one. Three kept me active, kept the passion going in each sport." Brad played basketball for his school and also on an AAU team. "I was traveling down to Compton, playing against the best guys in the state of California." In football he was wide receiver and helped his team win the State Championship. "We won our CIF and got to play at Anaheim Stadium. Football was something that I was starting to get recruited by some college schools. But I took a look at the life expectancy and took baseball into my hands." Ben Szeremeta writes about the Saints regularly at SaintsTrain.com Playing baseball Brad had no problem getting scouts to look at him. But having the number one overall pick as a neighbor and teammate didn't hurt either. "Coming out of high school I was fortunate enough that Delmon Young was my neighbor back at home. We had a lot of scouting directors, scouts, college coaches, and recruiters at games since I was a sophomore in high school and he was a freshman. We were having thirty teams there with their general managers and recruiters." While in high school he also played in college and MLB scouting showcases. "I was able to go play in the Area Code games with Delmon, Ryan Braun, and some of my closest buddies that I had growing up. I was able to flourish during those my junior year in high school." With offers from multiple colleges around the country the University of Arizona topped his list. "Arizona clearly got my attention with coach Andy Lopez over there. I think being able to start as a freshman and have that opportunity is what made my decision." Because of his stellar college career at Arizona, including being named an All- American his freshman year. Brad was selected in the 14th round of the 2005 MLB amateur draft by Seattle. After not being able to come to terms with the Mariners, he returned for his senior year and also a second season playing for the Cotuit Kettleers of the Cape Cod League where he was named an All-Star in 2005. He was then drafted in the 13th round of the 2006 MLB amateur draft by the San Francisco Giants and his professional career began. "I had a great experience there. I played with [buster] Posey, [brandon] Crawford, Sergio Roma, Panda Pablo Sandova, [brandon] Belt. I played with a lot of great guys. It was great to be part of that system." Brad seemed to be on the fast track for a call-up until injury struck. "I had a little setback my year in Triple-A, a minor injury. I fractured part of my knee getting hit by a pitch. It kind of held things back. They won the World Series in 2010. It would have been great to be a part of that. But I'm really happy for all those guys." In 2011 Brad started his first of a three straight seasons playing Indy ball. After stints with Gary, Lancaster and Bridgeport he ended up with the St. Paul Saints in 2013. "Your biggest memory of anything is your comradery. It brought you out on the field with a smile. Being around Brandon Tripp, Anthony Claggett, Mark Hamburger, the list goes on about the characters. I had a great time with George [Tsamis] and Lamarr [Rogers], the staff, and everyone there." He also had fond memories of the organization and Midway. "Just the atmosphere there, you know. When you come up to the ballpark and you've got tailgaters for a seven game and its two o'clock in the afternoon. It shows you how they market the team, the passion of the fans. It's a great community. It's a family. Having a chance to be part of that, it's something that I'll always have etched in my memory." Then later in the season, the Twins among other teams were watching. "When Mark Hamburger was here he brought a lot of scouts. He was running his two seam at 92, and his four seam at 95, 96. You’re gonna catch eyes." With all the attention being paid to the team, Brad took advantage. "I was fortunate, I rode the wave that year and got hot at the right time. They had an injury go down and I was able to go over there and be a utility guy in Double-A for a couple seasons. I had Hamburger as my roommate and we had a blast." Unfortunately a hamstring injury at the end of the 2014 season ended Brad's time in the Twins organization. In 2015 Brad signed with the Winnipeg Goldeyes and still believes he has more baseball in front of him. "As long as you’re playing this game your goal is to be a big leaguer. It's always to be a big leaguer no matter what your age is. The moment right now is to help this club, the Goldeyes win. But I'd love to get a chance to get back into affiliated ball. I think I can still make an impact." Even through all the ups and downs of a baseball career Brad has kept the right attitude and drive to succeed in this game. I really hope he gets another shot. He's still one heck of a ball player. Click here to view the article