John Bonnes

Aaron and John talk about the Twins making it to September very much in Wild Card contention, a struggling Byron Buxton vs. a washed up Torii Hunter, whether the Twins will call up Jose Berrios to help a faltering rotation, the third annual Twins Daily pub crawl, feeling old at high school reunions, sweating in studios, and Miguel Sano as the big spoon. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

It’s time for one last summer blast, and who better to host it than the Boys of Summer and Target Field? Twins Daily is throwing their 3rd annual Touch ‘Em All Pub Crawl, a legendary event that has drawn hundreds of people over its first couple of years. Proximo Liquors, maker of all manner of high-end libations like Three Olives Vodka and Maestro Dobel Tequila, is helping to make this year bigger and better.We meet between noon and 1:00 on Saturday, September 19th, at our first bar. We wind our way towards Target Field, enjoying several specials only available to Pub Crawl members. Then we watch the Twins battle the Los Angeles Angels for a wild card spot and continue the party there. Every participant gets a limited edition, commemorative t-shirt, so you can prove you were there, when, say, the Twins closer buys us a round. You can see this year’s design above – and there is some significant to the martini glass in this year’s design. Twins Daily, Vikings Journal, Wild Xtra & Northern Pitch writers and contributors will be there to talk baseball and raise a glass together. We’ll also have some special, giveaways and contests which we’ll announce over the next couple days. And you’ll be able to buy the crawl and game tickets at a special price. Tickets will only be available for a couple of days, starting this Thursday at 8:00 AM, so give yourself a reminder. And start getting psyched. For the first time, this pub crawl is going to be in a city that is genuinely excited about the game going on that night. The evolution of the Twin Cities to being a true baseball town has been gaining momentum. The Touch ‘Em All Pub Crawl has been a touchstone in that process. Don’t miss out on it. Tomorrow: We announce the route Wednesday: We announce the giveaways, contents and price Thursday: Tickets are on sale. Click here to view the article

I agree.

For Thursday night’s 5-4 loss, it’s tempting to focus on the run the Twins lost when Miguel Sano’s blast hit the Tropicana Field catwalk and ended up a double. It’s tempting because who doesn’t want to talk about that explosion? Lord, did you see it? Did you hear it? I thought Twins announcer Dick Bremer might have an aneurysm. I thought I might have an aneurysm. But I think we’re focusing on the wrong metric. The Twins didn’t lose this game because they couldn’t get enough runs. They lost it because they couldn’t get enough outs. And finding those outs in the team's arms has become increasingly tricky.It’s been a week now since the Twins have had a starting pitcher finish the sixth inning. And even with an off day on Monday, the bullpen has been stretched thin by a series of short starts, close games, an extra inning affair and an especially short start on Tuesday by Ervin Santana. With Glen Perkins still fighting a back problem and Kevin Jepsen having thrown in each of the last five games, there weren’t a lot of reliable options tonight. I expect manager Paul Molitor was hoping for six strong innings from Tommy Milone, which would allow him to use the three good arms available over those last three innings: Neil Cotts, Casey Fien and Trevor May. That didn’t happen, but trying to make it happen was when things got ugly. (There were a few less enticing options. Blaine Boyer - who pitched - could throw a few pitches. Same with Brian Duensing. And Ryan O'Rourke was available if absolutely necessary. Here is the number of pitches the relievers have thrown over the last week.) Download attachment: Bullpen Pitches.jpg The Twins had a 4-2 lead at the game’s midpoint. Milone was pretty hittable in the bottom half of the fifth, giving up three hits to six batters. However he should get credit for giving up just one run, and maybe extra credit for getting Evan Longoria to ground out to end the threat. But the bottom half of the sixth started the same way as the fifth – with a double off of the southpaw Milone. He stayed in for two more batters, both of whom faced him as right-handed hitters, and he gave up the tying run on a one-out hit by Joey Butler. That hit scored two batters later because of two defensive miscues. First, Eduardo Escobar threw to home when he really had no chance to get that tying run, which allowed Butler to stretch his single to second base. Then, after advancing on a groundout, he scored when catcher Kurt Suzuki allowed a Neil Cotts curveball to trickle between his legs. It’s a shame because, in the end, the bullpen got all the outs they needed to get at the end of the game. It was the threat of not having coverage that likely led to Molitor trying to stretch Milone a little longer than he should have. Alternately, the Rays won because they were more aggressive with their bullpen. Starter Drew Smyly was pulled after 4.2 innings. Brandon Gomes got four outs against the bottom of the Twins lineup, and then Alex Colome threw two innings before turning it over to closer Brad Boxberger. The Twins managed just one hit in 4.1 innings off that trio. In short, the Rays gave the Twins a dose of Minnesota’s own potent cocktail tonight: a great bullpen, a couple of timely hits and taking advantage of a defensive miscue or two. It’s the same recipe the Twins have used to turn a 0-3 road trip into a 6-4 road trip. That doesn’t make it any easier to swallow. Twins Takes It’s likely time to start debating who is going to lose time in the outfield when Aaron Hicks returns next week. Tonight, both Torii Hunter and Byron Buxton stated their case for finding some bench time. Hunter was 0-4 and hit into a double play in the fifth inning. It not only ended a threat to extend the lead, but ended the last threat the Twins would have. Buxton, meanwhile, struck out four times and was actually pinch-hit for in the ninth inning by backup catcher Chris Herrmann. And I can’t blame Molitor for the move. This wasn’t a case of a rookie getting fooled by veteran guile. He was flat out missing fastballs right through the strike zone. I thought back to the last time he struck out four times, when we found out the next day he had been playing with a strained thumb and was put on the DL. I won’t be shocked if, at the very least, he has a day of rest on Friday, which would mean seeing Shane Robinson three days in a row. Buxton, by the way, since his recall, is still hitting .264, but has a 12:1 K:BB ratio. His defense continues to be outstanding in center field. The bottom of the Twins lineup had another great night. Escobar hit his third home run in two games. Suzuki just missed a home run and still went 2-4. He’s hitting .392 on this road trip. And even Robinson contributed a hit and also “drove in” the Twins fourth run on an error by Asdrubal Cabrera that was likely influenced by Robinson’s speed. Click here to view the article

Looking at the International League standings, I wonder if the Twins aren't just waiting for the Red Wings to be eliminated. 5.5 games back with 12 to play. I wonder if that also doesn't play into whether the Twins let Berrios start on 8/31 in Rochester or 9/1 in Target Field. If he starts 8/31, I wonder if everything doesn't just get moved back a week, too. He could get five days of rest and still start in Santana's next start on Saturday in Houston. I'd almost be willing to bet that happens.

Berrios should be up. There just isn't any question. If there isn't room for him in the rotation, there certainly is in the bullpen. This is just silly. I wonder, if Santana stinks it up again on Sunday, if the Twins wouldn't consider pushing Berrios back one day (his next start should be Monday, I think) and having him start the Twins next game, on Tuesday, September 1st at home versus the White Sox. Then, after seeing him live, they could either shut down Santana or move him to the bullpen or rest him for a few starts or even start him and shut down Berrios. Actually, I wonder if the Twins might not consider that even if Santana doesn't stink. At the very least, it could help draw some attention to this team as they're in their most significant stretch of baseball in four years.

Five American League wild card contenders were separated by 2.5 games as of Tuesday afternoon. If you’re following the race between them, you’re undoubtedly heartened to see one of the Twins opponents facing the Blue Jays or Royals and equally miffed when they face Oakland or Seattle. The teams these contenders play are going to have some say about whom goes to the playoffs. But looking at the remaining schedules, it’s hard to say exactly which team has a clear advantage. The schedules are division-heavy, but all the teams face both the best and worst teams in their division. Let’s see if we can sort through them and determine if the Twins' remaining schedule works for or against their wild card hopes.First, let’s look at the raw numbers. Here are the five teams' remaining games. The opponents on the left are in order by worse record to best. Download attachment: Schedule Analysis 1.jpg The green teams are teams that are more than a couple of games below .500. The yellow teams are within a few games of .500. The red teams are more than a little above .500. There’s a lot of data there, but one thing that jumps out at me: the Twins have the fewest games against the other wild card contending teams. They only have six games (five after Tuesday night), while the other teams all have at least nine. But now I want to go back to those pretty colors. If you add up the games in those categories, the story becomes a little clearer: Download attachment: Schedule Analysis 2.jpg From this look, at least, the teams in the AL East have a pretty tough road. Baltimore has 18 games versus Toronto, New York and Kansas City, and the Rays face the same teams just three fewer times. The Twins face a dichotomy. One the one hand, they have a few more tough games than the Rangers or Angels. On the other hand, they have the most of any contender versus the “below .500” category. So it that a good schedule or a bad schedule? To figure that out, we’ll try to get a bit more precise. By looking at each opponent’s winning percentage, we can determine how a completely average team would fare against that schedule. When we do that, the Twins schedule becomes a bit uglier: Download attachment: Schedule Analysis 3.jpg Basically, the Twins record is about one loss tougher than average, while Texas record is about a half game easier than average. The Twins, despite having the most games against the “green” teams, have the second hardest schedule ahead of them. That’s because the teams the Twins face are at the top end of those categories I set up. The Royals, whom the Twins face more than any other team, should essentially be dark red. And the three green teams the Twins face – Detroit, Cleveland and Chicago – are the three toughest green teams in that category. The truth is that our initial confusion was probably justified – the remaining schedules for each team are close enough in overall competition to make a clear difference between them uncertain. One game or one-and-a-half games difference isn’t particularly significant in the randomness that is a pennant race. For instance, running into one of these team’s bottom half of the rotation versus their top half of the rotation can be a much larger difference than that one game spread. But the Twins schedule, seemingly, isn’t doing them any favors. As Twins fans watch their team's and their opponents' matchups on a daily basis, they’re more likely to be frustrated than pleased. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John watch the Twins defeat the Rays while talking about Buxton's place on the roster, the Twins crowded starting rotation, how you can promote your own future star at Harrys.com, how the Twins schedule compares to their rivals, giving up your first born child, the turnaround of the Twins bullpen and the joys of a pennant race, Miguel Sano statistics porn and west coast baseball. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

I"m often hesitant to call a guy up to the Bigs after only one breakthrough season, but that K/BB ratio really gives me confidence that he knows what he's doing at the plate right now. I don't really know how to do that with this lineup right now, but I'm excited for Kepler's future.

Listen, I agree that Nolasco will likely get another (hopefully healthy) chance. And I'm even optimistic that it might work out. But we're also got a numbers game going on here. Nolasco, Hughes and Santana are taking three spots. That leaves two spots for Milone, May, Duffey and Berrios, right? Which likely means some pretty unhappy people in April when Duffy and Berrios are in Rochester, or May is in the bullpen. (And it feels like I'm missing someone....) So while it isn't crazy to think Nolasco will be back, I can understand the frustration. It keeps depth, but does hurt future development of some important arms.

The acquisition of Jepsen and Cotts and the improvement that has resulted sort of drives home the point - the Twins didn't need to go get shutdown guys. The addition of two fairly average relievers (and a somewhat above average May) has meant a huge improvement in the reliability of the bullpen. And that's even after Perkins fell apart and was out hurt. That's what made the year so frustrating regarding the bullpen - they didn't need to do that much to make it acceptable. But they just refused to do those things. They kept trusting veterans (Stauffer, Fien, Duensing) that they hoped might come back, or guys that impressed by not giving up hits in the short term, but didn't have the stuff for long term success (Boyer, Thompson). And giving up on guys with legitimate stuff (Tonkin) because they gave up hits in the short term. And then only acquire one slightly above average arm at the deadline. It's bizarre. It's like as soon as Rick Anderson left, the whole organization forgot how to make a bullpen. It's just weird.

We’ve waited four long years to watch meaningful September games, so we're going overboard for 2015’s Twins Daily Touch ‘Em All Pub Crawl. This will be the biggest and best ever. PLEASE set aside the 19th of September, starting at noon on your calendar, then take a minute and tell your friends to set it aside too. While you’re at it, you may want to set a reminder for yourself the morning of Thursday, September 3rd, because that’s when tickets will go on sale, and we only have so much room in some of these bars.We’ll start releasing details on Monday, but with the help of our friends at Proximo Liquors, we’re going for it this year. All the bars are going to be within walking distance of Target Field. They’ll all be featuring free drinks from our friends at Proximo Liquors. There will be special prizes for anyone willing to hassle a Twins Daily writer. It should be one of the last really beautiful weekends of a fantastic Minnesota summer. We’ll be attending a critical game against the wild card contending Angels. And because we want to make it the biggest ever, you won’t believe the special early price we're offering. Trust me. Get this on your calendar immediately. We’ll start letting you in on the secret a bit more on Monday. Click here to view the article

You may think you have, but the Twins have 19 games on the road and 19 games at home. If they go 10-9 on the goad and 12-7 at home, that's 22 more wins or 85 wins total. 8 games over .500 might be enough to get that second wild card this year.

The value of a reliever versus the value of a starter is an interesting question. The most commonly cited metrics to show the value of a starter are innings pitcher and WAR, but really they're the same thing: WAR is higher because there are more innings and the value of those innings is all seen as the same. However, if you look at WPA (Win Probability Added) which takes into account how valuable those innings are, relievers often score higher. For instance, for the Twins, the top five are all relievers: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Nevertheless, I still think starters are more valuable - because they're rarer. You don't need metrics to show it, You need supply and demand. They're paid more. And while May is valualbe in that role this year, provided the Twins clear up some of the logjam in their rotation, he should probably be back as a starter next year.

I just realized, it's also "Hor Day!" What is Hor Day, you might ask? It's 8/25/2005 and I'm attending an afternoon game with a bunch of friends from work. We've done this a few times, so by now I know the Hormel Row of Fame Song is going to illicit some boisterous karaoke. Sometime around the fourth inning, it starts. When you are at the game (ba-ba-ba-bum) Are you in Hormel's Row of Fame? (ba-ba-ba-bum).. Except that this time the track gets stuck. If you are in the lucky seat (ba-ba-ba-bum) You'll win a Hor....skip You'll win a Hor....skip You'll win a Hor....skip By this time, the work friends and I are exchanging uncomfortable smiles. The skipping audio seems to goes on forever, but it was probably only three more times before the booth quickly faded it out. At which point I hear the guy behind me remark: "That WOULD be a lucky seat." For the record, I still know those friends with whom I was at the game, and they throw a party every year to commemorate it the weekend nearest to the game. I missed it this year because I was out of town, but The Voice of Reason™ and I are getting together with them tonight to watch the game.

Loved this, Riverbrian.

And an (unlikely) win in either place would: a. be unbelievably delicious b. slay a dragon that could get this team over the hump against both for the next decade c. be the kind of win that revs us a playoff run. I'm actually really looking forward to this possibility.

Aaron and guest co-host Parker Hageman of Twins Daily talk about Byron Buxton joining Miguel Sano for a bunch of wins, the Twins trading for Neal Cotts, Glen Perkins coming back sooner than expected, Aaron Hicks getting hurt, whether there's any hope for Joe Mauer, and gross middle-aged white guys. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article