John Bonnes

In this week's episode, John and Aaron sip some Nordeast and talk about Nishi's demotion, Baker's injury, some surprising Twins performances, and what it all means for the Twins Opening Day roster. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

In this week's episode, John and Aaron sip some Nordeast and talk about Nishi's demotion, Baker's injury, some surprising Twins performances, and what it all means for the Twins Opening Day roster. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

The news that Scott Baker is injured…. Geek Chorus: Hold it – NEWS? Is that really news? At this point, wouldn’t it be news if Baker got out of spring training completely healthy? Isn’t “Scott Baker is injured in spring training” the status quo? Nobody says it’s news when it’s 70 & sunny in San Diego. It’s only news here because it’s March and Minnesota. Touché. Anyway, with Baker taking those first critical steps to yet another underachieving and frustrating season, I wondered about a debate that Aaron Gleeman and I have been having on the Gleeman and the Geek podcasts: will Scott Baker be with the Twins next year? Let’s set the stage. Of the five Twins probable starting pitchers, three will be free agents at the end of the season: Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Jason Marquis. Scott Baker could be the fourth, but the Twins have a $9.5 million option for him. I can’t imagine him making that much per year on the free agent market if he has another year anything like his last three. On the other hand, there is (almost) no such thing as a bad one-year contract. He still has promise. And it’s not like the Twins have a bunch of young arms in the high minors for which they’re anxious to find a role. They might like a little stability, even if it means overpaying for Baker. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/2013_Payroll_1.jpg The question is: could they afford to overpay for Baker? To figure that out, one needs to take a look at what the roster might look like in 2013 and do a little back-of-the-napkin calculating, which you’ll find on the right. Can the Twins afford to pick up Baker's option? The short answer is: yes, probably. As things sit right now, the Twins would have $30 million to spend on four starting pitchers. Presumably, one of those is going to be prospect Liam Hendricks, who might very well take over Baker's spot in the rotation if he's out for any length of time. And he’ll make less than $500,000. The Twins aren't likely to drop $30 million on the three remaining starting pitcher spots, because pitchers who cost $10 million per year tend to only be available on longer multi-year contracts which the Twins avoid. The exception, of course, would be Baker and his option year. So even if Baker has yet one more substandard year, he could be in line for that extension. A mixture of need, promise, likeability and extra budget dollars means that Baker could be around in 2013. We'll watch this season unfold before we pass judgment on should. Other Notes The Twins have two other decisions to make next year, too. First, Alexi Casilla, if he plays the full year, will probably be up for at least a $2 to $3 million salary. Just because they Twins seem to be focused on other options long-term, I didn’t include him. I hope he has his breakthrough this year and I’m wrong about that. The other is Matt Capps. The Twins have a $6 million option on Capps for next year. I think the Perkins extension indicates the Twins have plans for him to ultimately take over the closer role, which might finally and mercifully end the Twins obsession with Capps. But I've been wrong about that before. TwinsDaily The hottest Twins topic is who is going to make the Twins roster, and Jim Crikket posted a nice primer if you want to catch up on who your newest Twins might be. If you want to be a little more specific, or check in on your favorite dark horse, check out Thryloss' dashboard look at how each bench and bullpen arm has performed. Seth, meanwhile, continues to take a look at how the Twins stack up against the rest of the AL Central at various positions. Surprisingly for a 99-loss team, they look awfully good. Of his latest two positions, I'd argue the Twins have the second best right-fielder in the bunch and the best center fielder. There just might be some hope after all.... Things are not so sunny in the Forum. First, we keep trying to put last year behind us, but it really is hard, especially for the morbidly curious. Plus, when we focus on the spring, we're reminded that Tsuyoshi Nishioka still looks lost out there. Just how are we going to keep him off the roster?

The news that Scott Baker is injured…. Geek Chorus: Hold it – NEWS? Is that really news? At this point, wouldn’t it be news if Baker got out of spring training completely healthy? Isn’t “Scott Baker is injured in spring training” the status quo? Nobody says it’s news when it’s 70 & sunny in San Diego. It’s only news here because it’s March and Minnesota. Touché. Anyway, with Baker taking those first critical steps to yet another underachieving and frustrating season, I wondered about a debate that Aaron Gleeman and I have been having on the Gleeman and the Geek podcasts: will Scott Baker be with the Twins next year? Let’s set the stage. Of the five Twins probable starting pitchers, three will be free agents at the end of the season: Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Jason Marquis. Scott Baker could be the fourth, but the Twins have a $9.5 million option for him. I can’t imagine him making that much per year on the free agent market if he has another year anything like his last three. On the other hand, there is (almost) no such thing as a bad one-year contract. He still has promise. And it’s not like the Twins have a bunch of young arms in the high minors for which they’re anxious to find a role. They might like a little stability, even if it means overpaying for Baker. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/2013_Payroll_1.jpg The question is: could they afford to overpay for Baker? To figure that out, one needs to take a look at what the roster might look like in 2013 and do a little back-of-the-napkin calculating, which you’ll find on the right. Can the Twins afford to pick up Baker's option? The short answer is: yes, probably. As things sit right now, the Twins would have $30 million to spend on four starting pitchers. Presumably, one of those is going to be prospect Liam Hendricks, who might very well take over Baker's spot in the rotation if he's out for any length of time. And he’ll make less than $500,000. The Twins aren't likely to drop $30 million on the three remaining starting pitcher spots, because pitchers who cost $10 million per year tend to only be available on longer multi-year contracts which the Twins avoid. The exception, of course, would be Baker and his option year. So even if Baker has yet one more substandard year, he could be in line for that extension. A mixture of need, promise, likeability and extra budget dollars means that Baker could be around in 2013. We'll watch this season unfold before we pass judgment on should. Other Notes The Twins have two other decisions to make next year, too. First, Alexi Casilla, if he plays the full year, will probably be up for at least a $2 to $3 million salary. Just because they Twins seem to be focused on other options long-term, I didn’t include him. I hope he has his breakthrough this year and I’m wrong about that. The other is Matt Capps. The Twins have a $6 million option on Capps for next year. I think the Perkins extension indicates the Twins have plans for him to ultimately take over the closer role, which might finally and mercifully end the Twins obsession with Capps. But I've been wrong about that before. TwinsDaily The hottest Twins topic is who is going to make the Twins roster, and Jim Crikket posted a nice primer if you want to catch up on who your newest Twins might be. If you want to be a little more specific, or check in on your favorite dark horse, check out Thryloss' dashboard look at how each bench and bullpen arm has performed. Seth, meanwhile, continues to take a look at how the Twins stack up against the rest of the AL Central at various positions. Surprisingly for a 99-loss team, they look awfully good. Of his latest two positions, I'd argue the Twins have the second best right-fielder in the bunch and the best center fielder. There just might be some hope after all.... Things are not so sunny in the Forum. First, we keep trying to put last year behind us, but it really is hard, especially for the morbidly curious. Plus, when we focus on the spring, we're reminded that Tsuyoshi Nishioka still looks lost out there. Just how are we going to keep him off the roster?

Coulda been worse. It coulda been a collage. Baker's elbow, Morneau's wrist, Denard's neck, Butera's bat and Mauer's sacroiliac. (And yes, this gratuitous comment was added purely so I could type the words "Mauer's sacroiliac." Twice.)

I've promoted this story to the front page to promote further discussion. You can comment further here.

The high number of walks AND strikeouts worries me. And an OPS of barely 700 in High A ball isn't anything to write home about, though Fort Myers is definitely a pitchers park and league. But I'm going to look forward to seeing what he can or can't do in AA. That's often a make or break year, and he'll be 22 most of the year, which isn't old but isn't super young, either. There's no reason to panic - what good would it do exactly? - but it'll help the Twins considerably if he gains back a little luster. After the AFL, I'm hopeful he will.

It’s still early in spring training – early enough so that our eyes could be fooling us from this bright sun thing – but maybe there’s some hope for the Twins bullpen after all. The bullpen has been a sore spots for Twins fans for…wow…how long has it been? This offseason, obviously. Last season, for sure. 2010 was a bit of respite, though there was enough panic to trade away Ramos Wilson for Matt Capps. In 2009 it struggled beyond Joe Nathan and Matt Guerrier. 2008 was REALLY bad up until Jose Mijares was given a role for the last two weeks of September. In 2007…ok…I’ll let you decide where you want to draw the line, but it’s fair to say it’s been a sore spot several times recently. It looked to be so again this year, especially when free agent Joel Zumaya was injured which caused some bloggers to lose their cool. (Justifiably, I would argue.) It looked like the bullpen was going to be manned by - let’s make sure I quote this right – “either a member of last year's shaky corps or a waiver or minor-league pickup.” That’s still true. But some of those pickups are producing some surprising results, especially when it comes to some strikeouts. With three spots likely open in the bullpen, three guys – two right-handers and one left-hander – have shined in early contests. Jared Burton was scavenged from the Cincinnati Reds, courtesy of a shoulder injury and a hyperthyroid condition that cost him most of the last two years. That doesn’t change the fact that the 30-year-old right-hander has earned a 3.41 ERA in the majors over 169 innings. “Hits” are not a trustworthy stat in spring training, but the fact that Burton hasn’t given up any in his four relief outings, while striking out four and walking just one at least puts him on the right path. Left-hander Matt Maloney, statistically, looks like the most exciting option. Cincinnati was also kind enough to contribute Maloney to the roster this offseason, though at least it cost the Twins a 40-man roster spot this time. In the majors, Maloney has mostly been used as a starter, but in his relief appearances, he’s struck out 21 batters in 24 innings, with just six walks (albeit 28 hits). This spring he’s dominated, striking out eight in 5.1 innings, while walking just one and giving up just three hits. Those are numbers that can’t be ignored, no matter which inning one is pitching. Speaking of “which inning one is pitching,” Jeff Manship has steadily been working his way from the late innings to the early innings in spring training games – an indication that manager Ron Gardenhire wants him to face better competition. He’s earned it. In his four appearances, he’s struck out six, walked none and given up just two hits. Both times I’ve seen him, his strike outs came on a what Seth Stohs describes as a “spiked slider.’ I have no idea what that mean, but I love the name, and I love the way it ends up at a batters ankles as he swings. Manship has been with the Twins for years, making a few appearances with the big league club, looking mostly mediocre, both as a starter and a reliever. His biggest weakness has been that he just plain gave up a lot of hits. That wasn’t a weakness in the minors, and a strikeout rate in AAA nearing 7 per nine innings – mostly as a starter – indicates he could take a significant step up given the chance to relieve. For instance, Joe Nathan averaged 7.2 K/9 in AAA, also as a starter. Of course, Nathan had that nasty slider – but Manship also looks like he’s got his “spiked slider” and I’ve heard reports of a top shelf curveball, too. (Though, maybe they’re talking about the same thing. It’s hard to tell sometimes.) The point remains: if Manship can stay healthy – and the same goes for Maloney and Burton, knock, knock – the Twins bullpen, on the shoulders (literally) of some washouts and pickups, could look like a strength a month from now.

It’s still early in spring training – early enough so that our eyes could be fooling us from this bright sun thing – but maybe there’s some hope for the Twins bullpen after all. The bullpen has been a sore spots for Twins fans for…wow…how long has it been? This offseason, obviously. Last season, for sure. 2010 was a bit of respite, though there was enough panic to trade away Ramos Wilson for Matt Capps. In 2009 it struggled beyond Joe Nathan and Matt Guerrier. 2008 was REALLY bad up until Jose Mijares was given a role for the last two weeks of September. In 2007…ok…I’ll let you decide where you want to draw the line, but it’s fair to say it’s been a sore spot several times recently. It looked to be so again this year, especially when free agent Joel Zumaya was injured which caused some bloggers to lose their cool. (Justifiably, I would argue.) It looked like the bullpen was going to be manned by - let’s make sure I quote this right – “either a member of last year's shaky corps or a waiver or minor-league pickup.” That’s still true. But some of those pickups are producing some surprising results, especially when it comes to some strikeouts. With three spots likely open in the bullpen, three guys – two right-handers and one left-hander – have shined in early contests. Jared Burton was scavenged from the Cincinnati Reds, courtesy of a shoulder injury and a hyperthyroid condition that cost him most of the last two years. That doesn’t change the fact that the 30-year-old right-hander has earned a 3.41 ERA in the majors over 169 innings. “Hits” are not a trustworthy stat in spring training, but the fact that Burton hasn’t given up any in his four relief outings, while striking out four and walking just one at least puts him on the right path. Left-hander Matt Maloney, statistically, looks like the most exciting option. Cincinnati was also kind enough to contribute Maloney to the roster this offseason, though at least it cost the Twins a 40-man roster spot this time. In the majors, Maloney has mostly been used as a starter, but in his relief appearances, he’s struck out 21 batters in 24 innings, with just six walks (albeit 28 hits). This spring he’s dominated, striking out eight in 5.1 innings, while walking just one and giving up just three hits. Those are numbers that can’t be ignored, no matter which inning one is pitching. Speaking of “which inning one is pitching,” Jeff Manship has steadily been working his way from the late innings to the early innings in spring training games – an indication that manager Ron Gardenhire wants him to face better competition. He’s earned it. In his four appearances, he’s struck out six, walked none and given up just two hits. Both times I’ve seen him, his strike outs came on a what Seth Stohs describes as a “spiked slider.’ I have no idea what that mean, but I love the name, and I love the way it ends up at a batters ankles as he swings. Manship has been with the Twins for years, making a few appearances with the big league club, looking mostly mediocre, both as a starter and a reliever. His biggest weakness has been that he just plain gave up a lot of hits. That wasn’t a weakness in the minors, and a strikeout rate in AAA nearing 7 per nine innings – mostly as a starter – indicates he could take a significant step up given the chance to relieve. For instance, Joe Nathan averaged 7.2 K/9 in AAA, also as a starter. Of course, Nathan had that nasty slider – but Manship also looks like he’s got his “spiked slider” and I’ve heard reports of a top shelf curveball, too. (Though, maybe they’re talking about the same thing. It’s hard to tell sometimes.) The point remains: if Manship can stay healthy – and the same goes for Maloney and Burton, knock, knock – the Twins bullpen, on the shoulders (literally) of some washouts and pickups, could look like a strength a month from now.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]304[/ATTACH]Aaron & the Twins Geek discuss Perkins' new contract, the Twins history of long-term contracts and then review Vegas' over-under predictions for the Twins and the rest of the AL. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

Let’s be clear: ultimately, it’s about the wins. I get into at least a half dozen debates per month where I feel the need to remind people that all this fun baseball stuff we analyze – coaching tactics, offseason pickups, roster changes, revenue tendencies, trades, minor league development – are not goals in and of themselves. They are the means to an end. And that end is wins. That said, even if the Twins somehow win the AL Central, 2012 will answer several questions that will seriously impact the rest of the decade for Twins fans. Besides the wins, let’s take a look at five other developments worth paying attention to if you’re a Twins fan. Can Sunk Money Stay Healthy? [ATTACH=CONFIG]295[/ATTACH]Between Joe Mauer ($138M), Justin Morneau ($14M), Denard Span($11.25M) and Nick Blackburn($5.5M), the Twins will end 2012 with $168.75 million dollars of future money ties to four guys that have had trouble staying healthy. If they can stay healthy and productive, then the team is likely competitive. But if not, the Twins may well want to consider creative ways of getting those salaries off the books, including trades that involve eating some salary or early retirement packages. Can Minor League Talent Fill Some Gaps? Much of this question will play out on a much smaller (and rundown) ballpark that is 315 miles southeast. In Beloit, Wisconsin, the Twins lower-A affiliate, the Beloit Snappers, may be fielding the Twins infield of the future, featuring consensus Twins number one prospect and third baseman Miguel Sano, top draft pick and shortstop Levi Michael and top prospect (and possible second baseman?) Eddie Rosario. The Twins should anticipate a lot of turnover over the next few years and will be looking for breakthrough years from those guys or players even closer to the majors, like outfielders Joe Benson and Ben Revere or first baseman Chris Parmelee. Every name above either is perceived to have a limited ceiling or is still pretty far from contributing to the majors. A big step forward by several of them completely changes the perceived future of this team. But if you look again, all of those names have something else in common too…. Where Will The Pitchers Come From? In the same way that the Twins lost most of their outfield (Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer) this last year, they’ll likely lose most of their starting rotation before 2013’s Opening Day. Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Jason Marquis are all free agents. Scott Baker has a $9.5M option which will be prohibitive if he can’t stay healthy. Only Nick Blackburn is a sure thing to return. Ooh, goody. Unfortunately, the Twins top prospects in the minors aren’t pitchers. Liam Hendricks was called up last year and might be able to fill a middle-of-the-rotation role. It’s possible Kyle Gibson could recover sufficiently from Tommy John surgery to contribute as a major league starter next year. And then you get to guys whose futures are more borderline. There’s a reason the Twins were so aggressive in adding waiver pickups who were pitchers this offseason, and it will be interesting to see if they’re active at the trade deadline in picking up some young arms. Or there is another mid-summer event they might leverage…. Can the Twins Take Advantage of a Historical Draft? There ain’t a lot of bright spots to a 99-loss year, but the second overall draft pick is one of them. That’s also the advantage of losing several high-performing free agents like Cuddyer and Kubel – the team gets extra draft picks back as compensation. Between that top pick and the quantity of top-75 picks the Twins have (and the new capped compensation they will pay these youngsters) the Twins have never had a draft loaded with this much opportunity, and likely won’t again for decades. It is the perfect chance for the organization to gas up a car that feels like it is running on fumes. Can Twins Revenues Continue Rising? Speaking of running out of gas, that’s exactly what it felt like to the scalpers last year. The lull and disinterest that set in caused the front office to put spending back into a lower gear. A less dismal season might reaffirm fans faith in the team and reaffirm ownership’s faith in its fans. A renewed financial strength will help this team plug holes over the next couple of seasons, perhaps offsetting the other transitions that seem likely to take place.

I think they'll put their best foot forward into July, but if things fall apart, I wouldn't be shocked if you see a lot of those veterans traded and a lot of the youngsters with a lot more time, especially Parmelee, Benson, Dozier and some of the pitchers.

I suspect the requirement for the Twins to pay for the surgery is spelled out in the Collective Bargaining Agreement. But even if it isn't, I suppose it would fall under worker's compensation - being hurt on the job!

I liked it too. Thanks.