John Bonnes

The Big Picture The Red Sox season has been a mess. Check that – the Red Sox season, offseason and end of last season has been a Hoarders-episode-sized mess. There was last September’s meltdown, firing the coach, firing/losing their GM, naming a new GM, overruling the GM about the new coach, who then alienates several team leaders one of whom ends up being traded…. And they’re still just one game out of BOTH wild card spots. There are a lot of desperate people in Bosox management who are feeling some heat right now. I can’t imagine a group-think that would be riper for a desperate, possibly stupid, trade. Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Red Sox starting pitching is 27th in ERA. Sure enough, the rumor mill has them pursuing several pitchers, including a report from CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman that links them to Francisco Liriano. Liriano makes sense, both because he’s someone they could leverage this year but also because they certainly have the means to entice him to stick around if things work. One could also imagine a sabrmetrically inclined organization coveting Liriano’s 3.62 xFIP. As for the lineup, they're likely set. They rank second in the majors in runs scored and Jacoby Ellsbury just returned. The Red Sox could certainly find room for Denard Span in one of the outfield corners, but if Ellsbury is healthy, they already have an elite leadoff hitter. Their focus is going to be on the rotation. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins They might have a different starting pitcher at the top of their list. Yesterday ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that the Red Sox were “aggressive in the pursuit of Ryan Dempster,” the Cubs right-hander who will be a free agent this offseason. Dempster makes sense for the Red Sox – he’s a veteran having an outstanding year, and the Cubs GM is Theo Epstein, who was the GM of the Red Sox last year. That means the management of these two teams knows each other, which is both good and bad for making a trade. On the one hand, Epstein certainly knows the prospects he would be chasing, and the Red Sox probably have a good idea which of their prospects Epstein likes best. On the other hand, this wasn’t the cleanest breakup in the world. The Red Sox also might be hesitant to deal with a GM that knows their strengths and weaknesses as well as Epstein. Conclusion You can certainly add the Red Sox to the list of possible suitors for Liriano. And even if they do match up better with the Cubs and end up with Dempster, that’s not bad news for the Twins. It means one less high upside pitcher on the trade market, without appreciably shrinking the teams looking for one. Trade Targets Xander Bogaerts – SS It’s unlikely the Twins will land Bogaerts, the top prospect in Boston’s organization, but they’ll ask, and I don’t put anything past Boston’s management team given their recent track record. Bogaerts is as highly touted – maybe even higher – as Miguel Sano. He’s 19 years old, he’s already in High A ball and he’s doing well (.287, 12 HR) there. Plus, he’s a shortstop. He would be a GREAT get. Ryan Lavarnway – C/DH The Red Sox have a 27-year-old catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who has already slugged 17 home runs. They also have a promising AAA 24-year-old catcher available. Lavarnway looks like an IDEAL complement to Joe Mauer. He’s right-handed and has hit for a ton of power (34 HR last year between AA, AAA and the majors). Much the way Doumit has, Lavanrway could play catcher when necessary, but his bat could play anyplace when Mauer is catching. Matt Barnes – RHP Drafted last year, the 22-year-old Barnes has already made his way through Low A and is starting at High A. Even at that level he has 63 K vs 15 BB in 59.1 IP. He’s considered polished with a 93-95 mph fastball and three other pitches. Anthony Ranaudo – RHP Ranaudo deserves mention because he’s 22 years old, put up decent stats in A Ball last year and is arguably the Red Sox second best pitching prospect. But he’s struggled this year and been shut down with shoulder fatigue, so it’s unlikely he would be someone the Twins would (or should) gamble on. Henry Owens – LHP He’s left-handed, 6’ 7”, 19 years old and has 97 K in 68.2 IP in Low A ball. He’s inconsistent, resulting in a 4.72 ERA, but there is a lot of upside here. It would only be fitting if he was part of the package the Twins received for the enigmatic Liriano.

The Big Picture The Red Sox season has been a mess. Check that – the Red Sox season, offseason and end of last season has been a Hoarders-episode-sized mess. There was last September’s meltdown, firing the coach, firing/losing their GM, naming a new GM, overruling the GM about the new coach, who then alienates several team leaders one of whom ends up being traded…. And they’re still just one game out of BOTH wild card spots. There are a lot of desperate people in Bosox management who are feeling some heat right now. I can’t imagine a group-think that would be riper for a desperate, possibly stupid, trade. Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Red Sox starting pitching is 27th in ERA. Sure enough, the rumor mill has them pursuing several pitchers, including a report from CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman that links them to Francisco Liriano. Liriano makes sense, both because he’s someone they could leverage this year but also because they certainly have the means to entice him to stick around if things work. One could also imagine a sabrmetrically inclined organization coveting Liriano’s 3.62 xFIP. As for the lineup, they're likely set. They rank second in the majors in runs scored and Jacoby Ellsbury just returned. The Red Sox could certainly find room for Denard Span in one of the outfield corners, but if Ellsbury is healthy, they already have an elite leadoff hitter. Their focus is going to be on the rotation. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins They might have a different starting pitcher at the top of their list. Yesterday ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that the Red Sox were “aggressive in the pursuit of Ryan Dempster,” the Cubs right-hander who will be a free agent this offseason. Dempster makes sense for the Red Sox – he’s a veteran having an outstanding year, and the Cubs GM is Theo Epstein, who was the GM of the Red Sox last year. That means the management of these two teams knows each other, which is both good and bad for making a trade. On the one hand, Epstein certainly knows the prospects he would be chasing, and the Red Sox probably have a good idea which of their prospects Epstein likes best. On the other hand, this wasn’t the cleanest breakup in the world. The Red Sox also might be hesitant to deal with a GM that knows their strengths and weaknesses as well as Epstein. Conclusion You can certainly add the Red Sox to the list of possible suitors for Liriano. And even if they do match up better with the Cubs and end up with Dempster, that’s not bad news for the Twins. It means one less high upside pitcher on the trade market, without appreciably shrinking the teams looking for one. Trade Targets Xander Bogaerts – SS It’s unlikely the Twins will land Bogaerts, the top prospect in Boston’s organization, but they’ll ask, and I don’t put anything past Boston’s management team given their recent track record. Bogaerts is as highly touted – maybe even higher – as Miguel Sano. He’s 19 years old, he’s already in High A ball and he’s doing well (.287, 12 HR) there. Plus, he’s a shortstop. He would be a GREAT get. Ryan Lavarnway – C/DH The Red Sox have a 27-year-old catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who has already slugged 17 home runs. They also have a promising AAA 24-year-old catcher available. Lavarnway looks like an IDEAL complement to Joe Mauer. He’s right-handed and has hit for a ton of power (34 HR last year between AA, AAA and the majors). Much the way Doumit has, Lavanrway could play catcher when necessary, but his bat could play anyplace when Mauer is catching. Matt Barnes – RHP Drafted last year, the 22-year-old Barnes has already made his way through Low A and is starting at High A. Even at that level he has 63 K vs 15 BB in 59.1 IP. He’s considered polished with a 93-95 mph fastball and three other pitches. Anthony Ranaudo – RHP Ranaudo deserves mention because he’s 22 years old, put up decent stats in A Ball last year and is arguably the Red Sox second best pitching prospect. But he’s struggled this year and been shut down with shoulder fatigue, so it’s unlikely he would be someone the Twins would (or should) gamble on. Henry Owens – LHP He’s left-handed, 6’ 7”, 19 years old and has 97 K in 68.2 IP in Low A ball. He’s inconsistent, resulting in a 4.72 ERA, but there is a lot of upside here. It would only be fitting if he was part of the package the Twins received for the enigmatic Liriano.

I also like this story Glunn. Thanks. I wondered if we couldn't find some better pitchers, so I looked up the top prospects according to Baseball Prospectus. The have four pitchers in tehir top 9 and EVERY ONE of them is injured right now: three with elbow injuries and one who "feels funny." Wow. And we thought we had it bad.

Aaron and John talk about once again rooting for the worst team in the league, why Francisco Liriano is like religion, what defines an "A" or "B" prospect in trade talks, how passing on Mark Appel makes even more sense now, celebrating our 50th episode, Matt Capps' return, Carl Pavano's non-return, Aaron's refined drinking habits, and a whole bunch of mailbag questions from listeners via Twitter. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John talk about once again rooting for the worst team in the league, why Francisco Liriano is like religion, what defines an "A" or "B" prospect in trade talks, how passing on Mark Appel makes even more sense now, celebrating our 50th episode, Matt Capps' return, Carl Pavano's non-return, Aaron's refined drinking habits, and a whole bunch of mailbag questions from listeners via Twitter. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

The Big Picture The Pirates are in first place at the All-Star Break. Oops - hold on. I didn’t say that with the right emphasis. Let me try again. The PIRATES are in FIRST F*$%ING PLACE at the ALL-STAR BREAK. Wha? How? That’s a fair question, considering their offense has scored 345 runs this year, 21st in the majors. The answer is that their pitching and defense has been outstanding, resulting in the 5th best team ERA in the league. Why They Will Trade With The Twins For starters, they’re “in a buying mode” according to their manager. And they’re looking for offense. You can almost throw a dart and find a spot in the lineup that needs improving. That said, the Pirates leadoff spot has been terrible this year, with a combined .228 batting average and .272 on-base percentage. That OBP ranks 29th in the major leagues. Recently they turned leadoff duties to a guy they just picked up off of waivers. It’s that bad. Denard Span probably wouldn’t play center field in Pittsburgh because their center fielder, Andrew McCutcheon, is having an enormous year. However, left fielder Jose Tabata was just sent down to AAA. He’ll be back because he signed a six-year deal with the Pirates, but there is also right field, where Twins castoff Garret Jones is platooning with …well, its not clear day-to-day that there is a good option for the other half of that platoon. Or that Jones wouldn’t just be better served off the bench. So Span fills a desperate need, improves the Pirates corner outfield defense and does so long-term at a reasonable salary, which is always a factor for the financially strapped Steel City. Why They Won’t Trade With the Twins Lately, they’ve been tied to two much bigger names: Justin Upton of the Diamondbacks and Carlos Quentin of the Padres. But the Pirates don’t seem to match up well with the Diamondbacks, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. As for Quentin, the Pirates would probably love to have him bat behind McCutcheon to protect the budding superstar, but Quentin is also a free agent at the end of the year. And there are several other teams in on Quentin, including the Reds who the Pirates are trying to fend off. So it might come down to which the Pirates prefer – big and gone or steady and staying. Or Span could be a defensive move if the Reds get Quentin. Or the Pirates could decide one doesn’t preclude the other. It shouldn’t. This lineup needs plenty of help. Conclusion The trade market may sort itself out very late this year as teams take as much time as they can to see if they are “in it” or not. Of the possible fits for the Pirates, Denard Span is near the top of the list. And as you can see below, the Pirates have plenty of pitching. There are reasons for optimism here. Trade Targets Jameson Taillon – RHP He’s a 20-year-old blue chip starting pitching prospect whose numbers (High A - 4.05 ERA and 73K in 86.2 IP) don’t reflect his stuff. Pittsburgh have instructed him to command his fastball rather than striking out hitters with his breaking ball. I’m sure the Twins will ask about him. I doubt they’ll get him, unless the bidding turns fierce. Jeff Locke – LHP Locke had a similar year to Liam Hendriks in 2011. He showed a lot of promise in AA, made just five starts in AAA and then was promoted as a September callup. Not too surprisingly, he was disappointing. This year the Pirates are stashing the 24-year-old left-hander in AAA to be used as major league filler and he’s having a very good year: 2.92 ERA, 84K and 23 BB in 95.2 IP. The looks to me like a middle-of-the-rotation arm that could be ready as soon as the fall, which is a nice fit for the Twins. (But then I still feel the same way about Hendriks.) Thanks to Jeremy Nygaard for this next name... Kyle McPherson – RHP He’s 24, and started the year late in AA because of a shoulder problem, but there is no reason to think he’ll stay there long. He dominated AA the second half of last year en route to being the Bucs minor league pitcher of the year. He’s got a good strikeout rate and excellent control – exactly the kind of guy the Twins would target. Baseball America ranked him as the 6th best prospect in the Pirates system this year. Luis Heredia – RHP A 6’ 6”, 18-year-old, high-upside (his fastball is already in the low 90s) pitcher who is still several years away from the majors and will be limited to rookie ball this year. Stetson Allie – RHP Here’s a wild card – emphasis on “wild.” The 21-year-old right-hander was the Bucs second round pick just a year ago. Unfortunately, his 100 mph fastball doesn’t do anyone any good if it can’t find the plate. Recently, it got bad enough that they demoted him to rookie ball - and had him switch to third base. If the Twins think they can “fix” him, like they did Alex Wimmers, maybe he could be an interesting secondary piece to fill out a trade package.

The Big Picture The Pirates are in first place at the All-Star Break. Oops - hold on. I didn’t say that with the right emphasis. Let me try again. The PIRATES are in FIRST F*$%ING PLACE at the ALL-STAR BREAK. Wha? How? That’s a fair question, considering their offense has scored 345 runs this year, 21st in the majors. The answer is that their pitching and defense has been outstanding, resulting in the 5th best team ERA in the league. Why They Will Trade With The Twins For starters, they’re “in a buying mode” according to their manager. And they’re looking for offense. You can almost throw a dart and find a spot in the lineup that needs improving. That said, the Pirates leadoff spot has been terrible this year, with a combined .228 batting average and .272 on-base percentage. That OBP ranks 29th in the major leagues. Recently they turned leadoff duties to a guy they just picked up off of waivers. It’s that bad. Denard Span probably wouldn’t play center field in Pittsburgh because their center fielder, Andrew McCutcheon, is having an enormous year. However, left fielder Jose Tabata was just sent down to AAA. He’ll be back because he signed a six-year deal with the Pirates, but there is also right field, where Twins castoff Garret Jones is platooning with …well, its not clear day-to-day that there is a good option for the other half of that platoon. Or that Jones wouldn’t just be better served off the bench. So Span fills a desperate need, improves the Pirates corner outfield defense and does so long-term at a reasonable salary, which is always a factor for the financially strapped Steel City. Why They Won’t Trade With the Twins Lately, they’ve been tied to two much bigger names: Justin Upton of the Diamondbacks and Carlos Quentin of the Padres. But the Pirates don’t seem to match up well with the Diamondbacks, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. As for Quentin, the Pirates would probably love to have him bat behind McCutcheon to protect the budding superstar, but Quentin is also a free agent at the end of the year. And there are several other teams in on Quentin, including the Reds who the Pirates are trying to fend off. So it might come down to which the Pirates prefer – big and gone or steady and staying. Or Span could be a defensive move if the Reds get Quentin. Or the Pirates could decide one doesn’t preclude the other. It shouldn’t. This lineup needs plenty of help. Conclusion The trade market may sort itself out very late this year as teams take as much time as they can to see if they are “in it” or not. Of the possible fits for the Pirates, Denard Span is near the top of the list. And as you can see below, the Pirates have plenty of pitching. There are reasons for optimism here. Trade Targets Jameson Taillon – RHP He’s a 20-year-old blue chip starting pitching prospect whose numbers (High A - 4.05 ERA and 73K in 86.2 IP) don’t reflect his stuff. Pittsburgh have instructed him to command his fastball rather than striking out hitters with his breaking ball. I’m sure the Twins will ask about him. I doubt they’ll get him, unless the bidding turns fierce. Jeff Locke – LHP Locke had a similar year to Liam Hendriks in 2011. He showed a lot of promise in AA, made just five starts in AAA and then was promoted as a September callup. Not too surprisingly, he was disappointing. This year the Pirates are stashing the 24-year-old left-hander in AAA to be used as major league filler and he’s having a very good year: 2.92 ERA, 84K and 23 BB in 95.2 IP. The looks to me like a middle-of-the-rotation arm that could be ready as soon as the fall, which is a nice fit for the Twins. (But then I still feel the same way about Hendriks.) Thanks to Jeremy Nygaard for this next name... Kyle McPherson – RHP He’s 24, and started the year late in AA because of a shoulder problem, but there is no reason to think he’ll stay there long. He dominated AA the second half of last year en route to being the Bucs minor league pitcher of the year. He’s got a good strikeout rate and excellent control – exactly the kind of guy the Twins would target. Baseball America ranked him as the 6th best prospect in the Pirates system this year. Luis Heredia – RHP A 6’ 6”, 18-year-old, high-upside (his fastball is already in the low 90s) pitcher who is still several years away from the majors and will be limited to rookie ball this year. Stetson Allie – RHP Here’s a wild card – emphasis on “wild.” The 21-year-old right-hander was the Bucs second round pick just a year ago. Unfortunately, his 100 mph fastball doesn’t do anyone any good if it can’t find the plate. Recently, it got bad enough that they demoted him to rookie ball - and had him switch to third base. If the Twins think they can “fix” him, like they did Alex Wimmers, maybe he could be an interesting secondary piece to fill out a trade package.

How low can it go? Not a whole lot lower. According to USAToday, the Minnesota Twins dropped their payroll $18.5M from last year ($112M) to this year ($94M). And while the mantra coming out of Target Field is that “payroll isn’t that important” ask youself: where this team would be with another $18.5M worth of starting pitching? That’s the bad news, but it’s old bad news. The worse (and new) news is that the team is again in last place and attendance is down again. Would that mean further payroll cuts? If it does, there are only so deep they can cut, because barring some trades, a quick-and-dirty analysis shows the Twins are committed to at least a $76M payroll. The back-of-the-napkin details are at the bottom. If the Twins don’t cut payroll at all, that gives them just $18M to put towards acquiring two or three starting pitchers. And if they do? Then you can expect a lot more of what we’ve seen this year: cycling through AAA starting pitchers in the hopes they can find someone who sticks. Because AAA starting pitchers will be all they can afford. I suspect it also means that any fantasies of hanging onto Francisco Liriano. At the very least, it makes it difficult to imagine the Twins offering him a $12.5M one-year contract to make sure the Twins get draft picks as he walks as a free agent. That much liquid payroll can’t be sucked up by just one player where there are so many gaps in the rotation. That is, if there is any available. If the Twins cut payroll again, Twins fans could face the very grim reality of watching a starting rotation that is actually worse that this years squad, which ranks 29th in ERA in the majors. How low can it go? Not a whole lot lower. But low enough. [ATTACH=CONFIG]1506[/ATTACH]

Aaron and John talk about the endless game of musical pitchers, revisit their preseason over/under predictions, answer Twitter questions from listeners, try to decide who comes off worse owning the same shirt, wonder if Nick Blackburn is worth having in the 2013 plans, review Samuel Deduno's first start, and try to keep Aaron from coughing up a lung. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John talk about the endless game of musical pitchers, revisit their preseason over/under predictions, answer Twitter questions from listeners, try to decide who comes off worse owning the same shirt, wonder if Nick Blackburn is worth having in the 2013 plans, review Samuel Deduno's first start, and try to keep Aaron from coughing up a lung. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

If the Twins want to sign Francisco Liriano to an extension, it will need to be in the parameters of what Liriano will make on the free agent market this winter. But its hard to know even roughly how much he’ll command. Partly that’s because of his mercurial performance. But that problem is compounded by a free agent class that is unprecedented in pitching depth. It starts with two 28-year-olds, right-hander Zach Greinke and left-hander Cole Hamels that are both better than anyone in last year’s class. They both could reach nine figure deals with yearly salaries that approach $20M per year. But the really remarkable variable about the free agent class is the next level. There is a glut of “potential” star pitchers and Liriano falls into that class. Anibal Sanchez – The Marlins right-hander is just 28, and has thrown 195+ innings with a mid 3s ERA the last two years. He looks similarly strong this year. Shaun Marcum – The Brewers 30-year-old right-hander has a 3.56 ERA over the last three years and has averaged about 200 innings the last two of years. But lately he’s shelved with a sore elbow. Jake Peavy - The 2007 Cy Young winner has been injured a lot the past several years, but has finally regained his form with the White Sox with a 2.96 ERA (and 101 K). Colby Lewis – the Rangers right-hander who has struck out 455 batters and in 500 innings over the last 2.5 years – but who is now out with “forearm tightness”. Dan Haren – After posting an ERA of 3.08 over the last two years with the Angels, the 31-year-old right-hander struggled this year. He recently admitted he’s had lower back pain all season and may find the DL. His performance over the last couple of months may determine if the Angels pick up his $15M option. Ervin Santana – Like Liriano, Santana has had good years and bad years. The last two, where he threw 451.2 innings with a 3.65 ERA were very good years. This year, where he has a 5.12 ERA is not so much. He’s not even 30 yet. Liriano, who currently has 5.40 ERA and 76K in 76.2 IP slots in somewhere among these pitchers. He’s probably been the least consisten, but he’s also one of the youngest. He has never posted the inning totals that these guys have. But he’s also the only left-hander in this group. Finally, it’s also worth noting that I haven’t included a slew of other pitchers, some of whom might even be more enticing to teams looking for “inning eaters”: Kyle Lohse, Joe Saunders, Randy Wolf, Carl Pavano, Kevin Correia, Derek Lowe, Carlos Zambrano, Fausto Carmona and Daisuke Matsuzaka. So how much could Liriano expect, provided he continues to be effective? The guys I bullet pointed above could all expect multiyear offers for $10M+ per year any other year. Injuries and late season performances could change that. So could the depth of the market. Liriano would likely be on the low end of that group, but his age could be a factor in allowing a longer-term deal. Three years and $27M “feels” about right. But there are a ton of unknowns. If some teams really want a left-hander, he could go higher. If the market dries up after the first half dozen guys sign, he could go lower or for fewer years. Plus, there is his performance in July through September. If he wants to cash in now and avoid all that, one would think the price of an extension might be a little lower. But there is another lesson here too. The Twins, should they choose to spend some money, have a historically deep free agent class to rebuild their rotation. While the focus is likely to be Greinke or Hamels, there is a lot of value in that next tier – someone is going to fall out of that group and get a lower contract than we anticipate. And there are a lot of other average pitchers (such as Pavano) who might find themselves standing without a chair when the music stops. If the Twins choose to try and extend Liriano, they place their bet early. It might make more sense to wait until the market sorts itself out and be aggressive later.

If the Twins want to sign Francisco Liriano to an extension, it will need to be in the parameters of what Liriano will make on the free agent market this winter. But its hard to know even roughly how much he’ll command. Partly that’s because of his mercurial performance. But that problem is compounded by a free agent class that is unprecedented in pitching depth. It starts with two 28-year-olds, right-hander Zach Greinke and left-hander Cole Hamels that are both better than anyone in last year’s class. They both could reach nine figure deals with yearly salaries that approach $20M per year. But the really remarkable variable about the free agent class is the next level. There is a glut of “potential” star pitchers and Liriano falls into that class. Anibal Sanchez – The Marlins right-hander is just 28, and has thrown 195+ innings with a mid 3s ERA the last two years. He looks similarly strong this year. Shaun Marcum – The Brewers 30-year-old right-hander has a 3.56 ERA over the last three years and has averaged about 200 innings the last two of years. But lately he’s shelved with a sore elbow. Jake Peavy - The 2007 Cy Young winner has been injured a lot the past several years, but has finally regained his form with the White Sox with a 2.96 ERA (and 101 K). Colby Lewis – the Rangers right-hander who has struck out 455 batters and in 500 innings over the last 2.5 years – but who is now out with “forearm tightness”. Dan Haren – After posting an ERA of 3.08 over the last two years with the Angels, the 31-year-old right-hander struggled this year. He recently admitted he’s had lower back pain all season and may find the DL. His performance over the last couple of months may determine if the Angels pick up his $15M option. Ervin Santana – Like Liriano, Santana has had good years and bad years. The last two, where he threw 451.2 innings with a 3.65 ERA were very good years. This year, where he has a 5.12 ERA is not so much. He’s not even 30 yet. Liriano, who currently has 5.40 ERA and 76K in 76.2 IP slots in somewhere among these pitchers. He’s probably been the least consisten, but he’s also one of the youngest. He has never posted the inning totals that these guys have. But he’s also the only left-hander in this group. Finally, it’s also worth noting that I haven’t included a slew of other pitchers, some of whom might even be more enticing to teams looking for “inning eaters”: Kyle Lohse, Joe Saunders, Randy Wolf, Carl Pavano, Kevin Correia, Derek Lowe, Carlos Zambrano, Fausto Carmona and Daisuke Matsuzaka. So how much could Liriano expect, provided he continues to be effective? The guys I bullet pointed above could all expect multiyear offers for $10M+ per year any other year. Injuries and late season performances could change that. So could the depth of the market. Liriano would likely be on the low end of that group, but his age could be a factor in allowing a longer-term deal. Three years and $27M “feels” about right. But there are a ton of unknowns. If some teams really want a left-hander, he could go higher. If the market dries up after the first half dozen guys sign, he could go lower or for fewer years. Plus, there is his performance in July through September. If he wants to cash in now and avoid all that, one would think the price of an extension might be a little lower. But there is another lesson here too. The Twins, should they choose to spend some money, have a historically deep free agent class to rebuild their rotation. While the focus is likely to be Greinke or Hamels, there is a lot of value in that next tier – someone is going to fall out of that group and get a lower contract than we anticipate. And there are a lot of other average pitchers (such as Pavano) who might find themselves standing without a chair when the music stops. If the Twins choose to try and extend Liriano, they place their bet early. It might make more sense to wait until the market sorts itself out and be aggressive later.

The Big Picture In the hyper-competitive NL East, the Braves are 4.5 games back of the division leading Nationals. But they’re also just one game back of the second wild-card spot, which happens to be shared by division rival New York Mets. Atlanta is reportedly searching for a top starting pitcher. That’s unusual ground for them – just last year they ranked 4th in MLB in ERA – but some injuries and regression by youngsters have them looking for rotation help. Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Braves are somewhat like the Twins right now, with two solid starters – Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson – followed by a whole lot of finger-crossing. They’ve been linked to just about every possibly available starting pitcher on the market already. That includes Francisco Liriano, since Braves scout Jim Fregosi (which are four words that should get ’93 Phils fans a little worked up) was at Sunday’s game, though he claimed the Braves weren’t interested in Liriano. But the best reason they match up with the Twins isn’t because of what they need as much as what they can offer – young pitching. One of the guys struggling in their rotation right now is 24-year-old left-hander Mike Minor, who is sporting a 6.20 ERA. But last year he struck out 99 batters in 100.2 inning in AAA, and almost matched that 1:1 ratio in 15 games in the majors. There are at least two other major-league-ready young pitchers that could be available for whoever can provide a high-end starter. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins Pay a lot of attention to this next paragraph. Or don't, since I suspect I’m going to be repeating it in a lot of these profiles. It looks like there could be an awful lot of awful good starting pitchers available at the trade deadline this year. Yes, there could be a lot more “buyers” than “sellers,” but there are fewer buyers with the will or need to make a big trade for a starting pitcher. The Brewers are rumored to be fielding calls for both Zach Greinke and (if he gets healthy) Shawn Marcum. The Phillies have started calling teams about Cole Hamels. The Cubs will certainly listen to offers for Matt Garza. Liriano probably slots behind all of those guys and maybe among some other names like Seattle’s Jason Vargas. However, one thing that Liriano does have going for him to facilitate a trade to the Braves: he’s left-handed. Atlanta hasn’t indicated they have a preference, but the Nationals team they’re chasing is hitting just .233 vs southpaws this year, 3rd worst in the majors. Conclusion There are a lot of other teams that would like to add Liriano to their rotation, and there are a lot of other pitchers that could help the Braves. But the Twins and Braves make a good fit both in terms of what is given and what is received. Don’t be surprised if rumors surrounding these two teams get louder as the deadline approaches. Possible Trade Targets Mike Minor – LHP He’s just 24. He’s left-handed. He has very little service time. He was the seventh overall pick in the 2009 draft. And he has struck out 192 in 209 IP in the majors. But he’s sporting a 6.20 ERA this year (5.34 career) and is giving up WAY too many home runs. Sounds like an awfully good fit for Target Field. It’s a little hard to believe the Twins could get him straight up for Liriano, but perhaps they could include their own prospect to balance out the deal? Randall Delgado – RHP Here’s another one of the Braves promising pitching prospects that is struggling in the majors this year. Delgado’s problem this year has been control and that’s never been a particularly strong suit of his. But he’s just 21 years old and was rushed to the majors with only four starts in AAA. He also has 569 Ks in his 538 innings in the minors and a fastball that averaged 92.4 mph last year. Julio Teheran – RHP He’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors with mid-90s stuff – and yet the Braves are looking for outside help? Yep. He’s just 21 years old. His strikeout rate in AAA doesn’t jump off the page and his brief callup last year (5.03 ERA w 10K and 8BB in 19.2 IP) was underwhelming. But again – he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors. And he’s in AAA. If the Braves don’t want to suffer through his growing pains, I know a team that will be happy to. A few more… Sean Gilmartin - LHP Stop me if this sounds like someone the Twins would like. Last year’s first round pick by the Braves projects as a middle of the rotation starter with outstanding control. The 6’2” southpaw is currently in AA. Zeke Spruill – RHP Also in AA, the 6’5” right-hander is positioning himself for a midyear promotion to AAA. With 63K in 98 IP, he doesn’t have outstanding stuff, but his control could make him a mid-rotation starter. Carlos Perez – LHP Only 19 and only in A-ball (again) and he’s not exactly thriving there. But he’s got a 90mph sinker that, if he can harness it, could rocket him up the ladder. He sounds a little bit like Liriano, actually. Arodys Vizcaino – RHP The 21-year-old fireballer rocketed through the organization to impact Atlanta’s bullpen last year. Unfortunately, it looks like that is his future, and it’s a future at least a year away as he was shelved for Tommy John surgery this March.

The Big Picture In the hyper-competitive NL East, the Braves are 4.5 games back of the division leading Nationals. But they’re also just one game back of the second wild-card spot, which happens to be shared by division rival New York Mets. Atlanta is reportedly searching for a top starting pitcher. That’s unusual ground for them – just last year they ranked 4th in MLB in ERA – but some injuries and regression by youngsters have them looking for rotation help. Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Braves are somewhat like the Twins right now, with two solid starters – Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson – followed by a whole lot of finger-crossing. They’ve been linked to just about every possibly available starting pitcher on the market already. That includes Francisco Liriano, since Braves scout Jim Fregosi (which are four words that should get ’93 Phils fans a little worked up) was at Sunday’s game, though he claimed the Braves weren’t interested in Liriano. But the best reason they match up with the Twins isn’t because of what they need as much as what they can offer – young pitching. One of the guys struggling in their rotation right now is 24-year-old left-hander Mike Minor, who is sporting a 6.20 ERA. But last year he struck out 99 batters in 100.2 inning in AAA, and almost matched that 1:1 ratio in 15 games in the majors. There are at least two other major-league-ready young pitchers that could be available for whoever can provide a high-end starter. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins Pay a lot of attention to this next paragraph. Or don't, since I suspect I’m going to be repeating it in a lot of these profiles. It looks like there could be an awful lot of awful good starting pitchers available at the trade deadline this year. Yes, there could be a lot more “buyers” than “sellers,” but there are fewer buyers with the will or need to make a big trade for a starting pitcher. The Brewers are rumored to be fielding calls for both Zach Greinke and (if he gets healthy) Shawn Marcum. The Phillies have started calling teams about Cole Hamels. The Cubs will certainly listen to offers for Matt Garza. Liriano probably slots behind all of those guys and maybe among some other names like Seattle’s Jason Vargas. However, one thing that Liriano does have going for him to facilitate a trade to the Braves: he’s left-handed. Atlanta hasn’t indicated they have a preference, but the Nationals team they’re chasing is hitting just .233 vs southpaws this year, 3rd worst in the majors. Conclusion There are a lot of other teams that would like to add Liriano to their rotation, and there are a lot of other pitchers that could help the Braves. But the Twins and Braves make a good fit both in terms of what is given and what is received. Don’t be surprised if rumors surrounding these two teams get louder as the deadline approaches. Possible Trade Targets Mike Minor – LHP He’s just 24. He’s left-handed. He has very little service time. He was the seventh overall pick in the 2009 draft. And he has struck out 192 in 209 IP in the majors. But he’s sporting a 6.20 ERA this year (5.34 career) and is giving up WAY too many home runs. Sounds like an awfully good fit for Target Field. It’s a little hard to believe the Twins could get him straight up for Liriano, but perhaps they could include their own prospect to balance out the deal? Randall Delgado – RHP Here’s another one of the Braves promising pitching prospects that is struggling in the majors this year. Delgado’s problem this year has been control and that’s never been a particularly strong suit of his. But he’s just 21 years old and was rushed to the majors with only four starts in AAA. He also has 569 Ks in his 538 innings in the minors and a fastball that averaged 92.4 mph last year. Julio Teheran – RHP He’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors with mid-90s stuff – and yet the Braves are looking for outside help? Yep. He’s just 21 years old. His strikeout rate in AAA doesn’t jump off the page and his brief callup last year (5.03 ERA w 10K and 8BB in 19.2 IP) was underwhelming. But again – he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors. And he’s in AAA. If the Braves don’t want to suffer through his growing pains, I know a team that will be happy to. A few more… Sean Gilmartin - LHP Stop me if this sounds like someone the Twins would like. Last year’s first round pick by the Braves projects as a middle of the rotation starter with outstanding control. The 6’2” southpaw is currently in AA. Zeke Spruill – RHP Also in AA, the 6’5” right-hander is positioning himself for a midyear promotion to AAA. With 63K in 98 IP, he doesn’t have outstanding stuff, but his control could make him a mid-rotation starter. Carlos Perez – LHP Only 19 and only in A-ball (again) and he’s not exactly thriving there. But he’s got a 90mph sinker that, if he can harness it, could rocket him up the ladder. He sounds a little bit like Liriano, actually. Arodys Vizcaino – RHP The 21-year-old fireballer rocketed through the organization to impact Atlanta’s bullpen last year. Unfortunately, it looks like that is his future, and it’s a future at least a year away as he was shelved for Tommy John surgery this March.

Aaron and John talk about Joe Mauer making the All-Star team while Josh Willingham got snubbed, Aaron's vodka-filled experience at the SABR convention in Minneapolis, Ryan Doumit's contract extension, John returning from his East Coast ballpark tour, Trevor Plouffe staying hot, whether the Twins should be in full-on sell mode, the Francisco Liriano dilemma, and why Pizza Luce at 3:00 am is a bad life decision. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John talk about Joe Mauer making the All-Star team while Josh Willingham got snubbed, Aaron's vodka-filled experience at the SABR convention in Minneapolis, Ryan Doumit's contract extension, John returning from his East Coast ballpark tour, Trevor Plouffe staying hot, whether the Twins should be in full-on sell mode, the Francisco Liriano dilemma, and why Pizza Luce at 3:00 am is a bad life decision. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.