John Bonnes

Aaron and John visit HammerHeart Brewing Company and talk about Jason Kubel's return to Minnesota, the insanity of a two-year offer to Mike Pelfrey, the challenges and rewards of starting a brewery, losing Liam Hendriks on waivers, a sold out Meltdown event, the bizarre roster decisions the Twins will face on Opening Day, Ron Coomer's new job, joining Stitcher, and the joys of having someone bring you beer. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

The latest casino project in Las Vegas is going to cost seven billion dollars. That is an incredible gamble (*1), but there are reasons that investors make it. The first is that in the long run, the house always wins. But the second is equally important: in the short run, anyone can win. If that wasn’t true, nobody would go to the casino, and there would be no reason to invest. Mike Pelfrey, who the Twins will be signing for $11 million over two years, is an investment too. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]In the long run, he’s averaged out to a 4.48 ERA return, but that's like saying a roulette spin will come up blackish-red. He’s thrown about five-and-a-half seasons in the majors, and only once (4.74 ERA in 2011) has he ever come anywhere near that career ERA. Instead, he’s crushed it twice (3.72 in 2008 and 3.66 in 2010) and been crushed three times (5.57 in 2007, 5.03 in 2009, 5.19 last year). It doesn’t take a lot of advanced analysis to tell you that the Twins are betting against the house. But the advanced stats tell us the same thing. Pelfrey’s success or failure each year has been almost entirely based on how many home runs he has given up. Home runs are highly dependent on whether or not a pitcher tends to be a ground ball pitcher or a fly ball pitcher, and Pelfrey is the latter. It’s hard for any pitcher to control what percentage of those fly balls turn to home runs, but there is some long-term trend to it, and Pelfrey has been very good at keeping fly balls from turning to home runs. Every year he has pitched in the majors, Pelfrey has been in the top half of pitchers in home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB). But the two years he was really good, he was elite in HR/FB, ranking 4th among qualified pitchers in 2008 and 9th in 2010. The other years, he wasn’t bad, but merely slightly above average. When Pelfrey has been successful, he’s been elite at doing something in which pitchers have very limited control. I don’t like to call that “luck,” but I also don’t like to call a good run at a blackjack table “luck.” I go with “secret sauce.” But whatever I call it, I don’t rely on it. If this was a one-year deal, I could say that the Twins won’t need to rely on it either. But a multi-year deal changes how teams react. If Pelfrey isn’t effective, whether it’s luck or skill or the wind blowing out in Target Field (*2) this spring, it’s going to be hard to push him out of the rotation. Nobody is going to be anxious to give up on a player with that contract, especially given that Pelfrey is by all accounts a good guy and hard worker. So the Twins are making a bigger bet than they should have against the house. They might have been emboldened to do so by their success with Kevin Correia, who paid off handsomely in his first year. The Twins have responded by doubling down instead of walking away with their winnings. That’s a natural, human reaction. It’s also why they still keep building casinos. ~~~ *1) We tend to read numbers and blow right past them, but think about what it means to build a seven BILLION dollar casino. That’s the value of thirteen of MLB teams, including the Twins, combined. And that money needs to be raised and paid UP FRONT in cash. And it’s not like casinos never go bust – several of them have over the last decade or ended up being partly built and then stalled out. Just what kind of return do you have to anticipate to make a seven billion dollar bet like that? *2) Target Field is probably worth addressing. HR/FB rate is also influenced by ballpark, and it would make sense that Target Field would help pitchers, especially right-handed pitchers, in that regard. But it’s worth noting that Pelfrey’s team, the Mets, also have a home ballpark that has suppressed home runs. For instance, in 2010, the Mets and their opponents hit 110 home runs in CitiField, but 153 home runs on the road.

Thank you everyone! The Twins Daily Winter Meltdown was sold out by noon today. We'll see you on January 25th. If we find a way to increase capacity, we'll be sure to publicize it here and on our @TwinsDaily Twitter account. ------ A limited number of Twins Daily Winter Meltdown tickets are now available. Here's the cheat sheet:[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] January 25th from 5:00-8:00, which coincides with the end of TwinsFest. Mason's Restaurant and Barre - which also coincides with TwinsFest, as it's just one block from Target Field Plaza. All attendees get a free Twins Daily Meltdown 2014 Pint Glass and two free craft brews. There will be talks and a Q&A session with Twins President Dave St. Peter and other Twins and baseball luminaries. Tickets are $25 at the door and $20 purchased in advance - and we expect to sell out well in advance. We only have 120 tickets and we've consistently had a similar turnout for smaller events. I'm sorry we couldn't make this bigger and allow more people, but consider this your warning - PLEASE try to get your tickets as early as you can find time. ------ Twins Daily's Winter Meltdown will feature Minnesota Twins President Dave St. Peter answering questions from attendees as part of the featured baseball panel presentation. St. Peter has served as President of the Twins since 2002, overseeing a decade of success, a move to Target Field and the recent struggles of the team. He has also made enormous efforts to engage Twins fans directly, including a very active (and popular) Twitter account. So it's not surprising that he's agreed to support Twins Daily and our members by participating in the Meltdown. We really appreciate his support. You can find more details about the event, which takes place one block from Target Field on the Saturday of TwinsFest, below. But there are two clarifications to the information listed below: 1. We've been asked if fans under 21 can (and should) attend. The answer is absolutely (and absolutely). Those members under 21 obviously can't get the free beer tickets, but Mason's has lots of other alternatives and great food. (And there will be nothing offensive about the baseball panel. It's likely my own kids will be there.) 2. I've received several requests to set aside tickets for people prior to the ticket launch on Friday Dec 13th at 8 AM, because people are worried it will be sold out. We understand, but if you can't be free at 8 AM to order tickets, you'll want to arrange someone else to order them for you. We're very sorry that the event is limited to 120 attendees. Again, for more information, see immediately below. We'll see you on January 25th! ------- The move to Twins Daily from our individual blogs was a move towards community. Ask any writer - it's a lot harder to build a community than to just write and click 'Publish.' Fortunately, it's also a lot more fun. Especially when it includes a couple of beers, a Twins Daily pint glass and speakers from the Minnesota Twins. Twins Daily is having our 1st Annual Winter Meltdown following TwinsFest this January 25th. Or maybe it's our second, seeing as last year upwards of 100 fans swamped Huberts to sip a keg of craft beer and connect in person, like, you know, real people. But I'm still going with "1st Annual" because that one was a lark, and this time we're getting serious. It will still be super-convenient if you're going to TwinsFest at Target Field. We're holding it at Mason's Restaurant and Barre just one block from Target Field Plaza, on 6th and Hennepin. It's the perfect place - close, nice and naive enough to not know what they're getting themselves into. It will be the Saturday of TwinsFest, January 25th, from 5:00 - 8:00, just as TwinsFest is winding down, just like last year. And like last year, it will feature craft beers, two free per attendee. But we're upping our game considerably. First, all attendees will receive a Twins Daily pint glass to keep. Second, we're hosting a baseball panel featuring members of the Twins organization, answering questions about the upcoming season. As we finalize the speakers this week, we'll let you know the names, but they'll be people Twins fans and geeks will want to hear from firsthand. And, of course, there will be the community. We'll all get a chance to meet in person those people we've talked to in the forums or on Twitter the other 364 days of the year. Tickets are limited, and cost $20 in advance or $25 at the door. However, given the interest in previous Twins Daily events that included far less, we expect to sell out early, possibly very soon, so we're giving you a heads up: Tickets are now available. We need to cut off the sale at 120 tickets, which is less than we had at Hubert's last year and darn near what we had for the #GrandDrunkRailroad event last August. We truly apologize if any of you are (literally) left in the cold - it's hard to find large venues close to Target Field that make sense. Each of us hope you all can make it. We would love to meet you and expect this is going to be an event to remember. This event has sold out. NOTE: For more updates, be sure to follow the event at Twins Daily's Facebook page.

In Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, Robert M Pirsig dwells on a topic about which we often argue at Twins Daily: Truth. (*1) Given a finite amount of data – and there is always only a finite amount of data – the human imagination is capable of creating an infinite number of explanations for what that data shows. But ultimately, one strikes us as The Truth. It can feel like an epiphany, an absolute. But it’s really just the prettiest of the explanations of which we can conceive. This is true even for scientific facts, like gravity (*2). It's even more true when there is less observable data, like say, watching the moves of your favorite baseball team's front office. We can speculate from the outside, but odds are the truths we think we've found are the truths that appeal to us and are likely to change. My experience is that even when the people involved tell you The Truth, it's of limited value. They likely don't want to tell you the whole truth. It may even be that they don't understand it themselves. At the press conference where the Twins introduced Ricky Nolasco, Terry Ryan was asked about whether the Twins philosophy is changing towards free agency. He replied that he didn't think so (*3), that they had always said that they would utilize free agency when it was appropriate, and this was certainly appropriate. He implied the difference was that they now had the resources. That's a fine explanation, one that certainly can pass as The Truth for a limited set of facts. But there are other facts it doesn't explain. And the top one is that the Twins were in the exact same situation last year, and risked just $15 million on two pitchers, instead of the $73 million (and maybe more, soon) that they have already spent this year. In fact, last year, they under-spent their budget by $20 million. This additional data point can also be explained an infinite number of ways. For instance, 1) Maybe an extra year of losing added more urgency. 2) Maybe last year the increase in prices surprised the Twins. 3) Maybe Ryan just wasn't accustomed to having money to spend. 4) Maybe they just like Nolasco and Phil Hughes more than any pitchers last year. 5) Maybe someone new in the front office gained influence and convinced the organization to spend the money. 6) Maybe someone above Terry Ryan in the Twins hierarchy convinced him to spend the money. Or maybe the philosophy changed. Whichever truth you choose depends on which additional events you choose to include, and which explanation you find most appealing. (*1)Actually, Robert M. Persig dwells on a lot of things, and they’re all wrapped inside an intriguing and somewhat gut-wrenching story that I should really re-read. And which you should too. It’s the offseason. Trust me on this one. (*2)You might have trouble, even in the Twins Daily forums, arguing against gravity. But before Isaac Newton, people noticed that stuff tended to fall to earth. The accepted Truth was that objects had an “earthly nature” that made them return to earth. It wasn’t until Newton came along and started talking about the other heavenly bodies and how they were holding other objects in orbit, and creating formulas for how quickly things fell to earth, that the idea of gravity sunk in. For the record, those previous “nature” ideas weren’t proposed by some dummy. This was Aristotlian (as in Aristotle) Physics. It was the truth for nearly two thousand years because it made sense to everyone. We accept gravity because it made even more sense once we started realizing the earth wasn’t the center of the universe. And we might well throw it aside – and Albert Einstein already did as part of general relativity. Which, by the way, has been modified several times by various theories. Einstein doesn't have all matter attracting other matter. Rather, matter curves spacetime, bending objects in motion towards itself. And with that insufficient teaser, I and my one trimester of physics are disentangling ourselves from this explanation. Instead, I choose to focus on this: we are talking about something that most would consider scientific fact, and yet every few hundred years, it’s modified as we recognize a different explanation as "truth" for why that apple falls on your head. They all explain the apple. But the one we accept at different times extends from additional facts and observations and is eventually adopted as the cleanest explanation. If scientific fact is that malleable, how absolute is any truth? (*3) The question was asked by Wally Langfellow of Minnesota Score magazine. Here was Ryan's entire reply: “No, I don’t think so Wally. This isn’t a change in philosophy. We’ve always said, if we need to do something. Now we have the resources to do it; there’s no doubt. If we were still in the Metrodome, this probably wouldn’t happen. But we’re in Target Field. We’ve got more revenue and resources, certainly. This is a nice opportunity. We need pitching. We went out and got it. As people recall, we tried to retain [Johan] Santana or retain Torii Hunter. To some extent, we just didn’t have the wherewithal. We would not hesitate to jump into free agency. I don’t think it’s the greatest path, because it is risky. We all know that. Free agency is not the answer. It’s a help and a supplement to a roster. But if you’re relying on free agency year-in and year-out, it’s not gonna work. Now we’re in a situation where we need help. We need immediate help. And this is the reason Ricky is sitting here. But I don’t see this as a big change. Yeah, this is a nice contract for any player. But we’ve given out contracts of sizable worth and that lad over there on that poster [Ryan points to a picture of Joe Mauer] is a good example. He’s making a lot of money. We’re not afraid to do it, provided we get the right fit.”