Jeremy Nygaard

Moments after last week’s article went live, the biggest draft bombshell of the spring dropped. Later in the week, the two most popular websites that cover the draft posted their newest mock drafts. All of that and more are covered in this week’s Draft Report. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel dropped the tweet heard ‘round the draft world last Wednesday afternoon when he announced that prep pitcher Dylan Lesko would be undergoing Tommy John surgery. Shortly after that, all of the other outlets confirmed the unfortunate news. While it’s not clear how this will impact the top of the draft, it definitely adds to the uncertainty. I’ll take a deeper dive into the rash of pitching injuries in an upcoming episode of From Lee to Limestone. Baseball America dropped their mock prior to the Lesko news; while MLB Pipeline’s came out shortly after. Baseball America predicts the Twins to select Gavin Cross, an outfielder from Virginia Tech, and pass on Jacob Berry, Jackson Holliday, and Daniel Susac, who I have ranked higher. But the profile fits and it wouldn’t be a reach as BA’s Carlos Collazo says that in another draft class, it wouldn’t be surprising “for a player like Cross to be a top-five pick.” And based on how the Twins have drafted in the past, taking someone with a “very strong offensive profile” and “tons of power” wouldn’t be shocking. I get a Trevor Larnach on offense/Max Kepler on defense type of feeling with Cross. MLB Pipeline goes a different direction and has the Twins passing on Cross (and Susac and Lesko) and taking Jacob Berry, a corner player from LSU. Berry is definitely going to be in the mix with this pick. It’s noteworthy, though, that Jonathan Mayo says that he’s getting a “slight ‘unenthusiastic’ vibe from some scouting directors” about Berry. Berry has a similar profile to Cross on the offensive side, though his ceiling to hit for average, power, and overall as a switch-hitter is higher. Much bigger questions remain about his defensive home. You’ll read plenty that he’s listed as a third baseman, but that’s very generous. You might see him listed as an outfielder, and that’s hopeful. But the reality is guys like this usually end up at first base (or DH). So the bat really needs to play. Regardless, the Twins will have options. It was announced that the 8th overall pick will have a slot value of $5,439,500. The second-round pick will have a value of $1,621,900 and the Twins comp round B pick will have a value of $1,001,500. Overall, they’ll have the 12th biggest pool at just over $10 million. Additionally, it appears that the Twins will forfeit their third-round pick, not their comp pick, for signing Carlos Correa. (This must have changed since signing Ervin Santana.) That’s a difference of 19 picks and just short of $300K (or the equivalent of a sixth-round slot). JEREMY’S TOP 10 PROSPECTS The news on Lesko sends him down the list; while the trajectory of Jackson Holliday continues to trend upward. 1.) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 2.) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep 3.) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) 4.) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly (previously: 5) 5.) Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech (previously: 7) 6.) Jackson Holliday, SS, Oklahoma prep (Oklahoma State commit) (previously: 10) 7.) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU (previously: 6) 8.) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech 9.) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) (previously: 4) 10.) Andrew Susac, C, Arizona (previously: 9) MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS Baseball America - v3.0 (4/28/22) / (v2.0 (4/1/22) / v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 300 (4/27/22) / Staff Draft v.1.0 (4/20/22) MLB.com - Mock Draft (4/27/22) / Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 150 (4/25/22) The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22) ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) / Draft Rankings 2.0 (4/27/22) Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) Prospects Live - v2.0 (4/21/22) / v1.0 (1/4/22) Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22) My MLB Draft (1/18/22) View full article

The last time the Twins lost a pick (Ervin Santana?), I was convinced that by the way the rule read they weren't losing a supplemental pick... but I was wrong and that was the pick they lost. I'm not sure if the new CBA cleared that up, but I'm operating under the assumption they're losing their Comp. Round B pick.

We’re another week closer to the mid-July draft and activity is starting to pick up. As we get into May, the focus begins to tighten. While the picture still appears very broad to almost everyone, the tea leaves begin to occasionally drop. But that’s the fun of drafts: It’s up to you whether you want to believe them or not. There’s been enough happening on the national level for Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and ESPN to update their prospect rankings. Baseball America expanded their listing to a Top 300. That covers, roughly, the Top 10 rounds. Unranked college seniors, however, will be very popular choices in the second half of the top 10 rounds as it significantly helps teams stretch their bonus pools. But if you’re wondering if a guy might go in the Top 10 rounds, this is a great resource. MLB Pipeline updated their Top 150. The biggest headline here is the big jump Jackson Holliday took since their last rankings, going from 51 to 4. Jackson, the son of Matt, plays a premium position (shortstop) and will likely continue to move up the board (even though there’s only so much room left to go). He made it into my Top 10 a few weeks ago and while Baseball America was higher quicker, MLB has now caught up. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel pushed out his second set of rankings. One thing that Kiley does that I really appreciate is try to tie draft classes into the big picture of prospect rankings. Basically, his top eight draft prospects would all slot into the Top 125 prospects in the minor leagues, with his top prospect, Druw Jones, slotting into the 4-22 range. It’s been written about plenty, but these rankings reflect the biggest story of the 2022 draft: There’s a complete lack of college pitching prospects. The top college pitching prospect by publication: Baseball America - #20 Blade Tidwell, RHP, Tennessee. Tidwell seems like the only first-round lock, and that’s assuming that his medicals check out after having some shoulder issues. MLB Pipeline - #19 Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga. Though he’s ranked in the Top 20 here, he misses the Top 40 for the other two publications. ESPN - #19 Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama. Prielipp had Tommy John surgery last season and is throwing bullpens, but may not even be able to throw for scouts before the draft. Baseball America also completed their first staff mock draft of the season. In the first version, they have the Twins selecting Daniel Susac, a catcher from Arizona, at eighth overall. The writer who selected him for the Twins cites his better chance to stick behind the plate than Kevin Parada and calls him “one of the best hitters in the country.” EDIT: Within an hour after this article was submitted, Kiley McDaniel dropped this bombshell. As a huge Lesko fan, we'll dive deeper into this next week. We’re status quo in the Top 10. When 10/10 match MLB and 9/10 match Baseball America and ESPN (though the order is different), you feel like you have a pretty good handle on the current climate. JEREMY'S TOP 10 PROSPECTS 1.) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 2.) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep 3.) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) 4.) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) 5.) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly 6.) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU 7.) Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech 8.) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech 9.) Andrew Susac, C, Arizona 10.) Jackson Holliday, SS, Oklahoma prep (Oklahoma State commit) MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS Baseball America - v2.0 (4/1/22) / v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 300 (4/27/22) / Staff Draft v.1.0 (4/20/22) MLB.com - Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 150 (4/25/22) The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22) ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) / Draft Rankings 2.0 (4/27/22) Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22) My MLB Draft (1/18/22) Prospects Live v1.0 (1/4/22) View full article

I wouldn't be getting scared or even worried about that quite yet. So much can/will happen between now and then. We haven't even started to hear who these guys are represented by and their demands and that usually throws a wrench into things.

Pretty advanced. Legit top 10 draft prospects. The thing with any catching prospects is the pace at which their bat and defense develop. If bats develop faster and the club has any alternative, those players typically end up playing elsewhere. They both certainly have a chance to remain behind the dish... and I think that would be enough for either to be seriously considered.

A quiet week in the draft world is not the worst thing. In fact, any draft noise in late April is usually injury-related. So we’ll take a week without big news as a good sign. There were, though, still three draft-related articles that I want to draw your attention to. Keith Law’s posted a piece last Friday that had information on three of the draft’s top prospects. It is behind a paywall, so I’m only going to give you a few excerpts. Law raves about Druw Jones, putting some crazy high future grades on him saying he “wouldn’t project any 18-year-old to become an 80 defender like his dad was, but Druw is plus now and he could still improve. He’s a plus runner with 70 power now, even though he hasn’t really filled out physically, with electric hands and tremendous strength in his wrists already, like Andrew McCutchen at a similar age.” There are more question marks about fellow Georgia prep Termarr Johnson, who stands only 5-8 and will likely need to move from shortstop to second base when he turns pro. But the hit tool is for real “with some scouts saying they think it’s a 70 hit tool, the highest they’ve seen on a high school hitter in over a decade” according to Law. The Twins have valued the ability to hit more than anything lately. Johnson probably won’t fall that far, but you’d have to believe the Twins would be very interested if he did. The last top prospect update in Law’s piece is about Dylan Lesko. It’s no surprise that Law, who saw Lesko at the NHSI event two weeks ago came away impressed saying Lesko’s changeup is “every bit of a grade 70 pitch, the best one I’ve seen a high school pitcher throw, comparable to the best offspeed pitches I’ve ever seen from a high schooler.” But his last line about Lesko is far more ominous, though, citing his recent arm soreness, “As a high school pitcher, and now one facing a potential long-term injury, however, he’s going to go a lot lower and might end up considering going to school.” If true, this is not good. Speaking of Jones, Maria Torres of The Athletic wrote about the pressure that Druw Jones is facing as the draft’s top prospect, but how he’s embracing it and having fun. According to Torres, Jones is putting up video-game-on-easy numbers. “He has batted nearly .600, with 43 hits, including eight home runs, in his first 24 games. He has coupled a comical .597/.685/1.028 slash line with 17 stolen bases in 18 tries.” And of course, he’s having fun doing it. And, finally, just posted on Wednesday, Baseball America had a write-up of the first day of the Scott Boras Classic. The headliner of Tuesday was Mikey Romero, who is projected to go in the top two rounds. Committed to LSU, Romero is considered the top prep position player in Southern California. Sound familiar? A relatively quiet week means no movement in my Top 10. JEREMY'S TOP 10 PROSPECTS 1.) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 2.) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep 3.) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) 4.) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) (previously: 5) 5.) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly 6.) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU 7.) Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech 8.) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech 9.) Andrew Susac, C, Arizona 10.) Jackson Holliday, SS, Oklahoma prep (Oklahoma State commit) MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS Baseball America - v2.0 (4/1/22) / v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 200 (3/14/22) MLB.com - Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 100 The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22) ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22) My MLB Draft (1/18/22) Prospects Live v1.0 (1/4/22) View full article

Lizarraga was the #1 (non-Cuban) pitcher on MLB.com the year prior. He debuted as a 35+ on the Padres board last year. That demographic has such a high probability of failure, I can easily see it being where the PTBNL comes from. And the 90-day prohibition of being traded makes sense for Susana too. It could also be that it doesn't have to make any sense. It could be someone the prospect lists like, it could be someone it doesn't. Either way, it's fun to talk about.

It will be interesting to see how the Padres prospects are graded when Fangraphs releases their list. I don't want to use another list to compare because that's apples and oranges, but based on how the Padres use a lot of their prospects in deals, I have to guess they don't have a ton of pitchers that rank higher than 40+ or hitters that are higher than 40 FV. That said, Kevin Goldstein - as I posted in today's video - was high on Susana when he was still at Fangraphs. I don't see any way he's higher than a 40 or 40+. Didn't look too much, but IFAs usually take awhile to go above 40.

With you on this. That's two more weeks than Arraez or Gordon got before playing OF in the big leagues.

He's not getting out of the contract, but he's getting out of having to live up to that contract.

The draft is a short three months away. Over the last week, there have been a number of newsworthy draft notes. Continue reading to learn more. Shortly after submitting last week’s piece, Georgia prep pitcher Dylan Lesko set the internet ablaze with a dominating performance in the NHSI tournament in Cary, North Carolina. Over four innings and 51 pitches, Lesko struck out seven and allowed two hits, hit a batter, and gave up a run. He had 12 swinging strikes that can be seen below. Over the next couple days I read about comparisons to Stephen Strasburg as well as prep pitchers who have gone very high in the draft over the last decade. You can read more about Lesko and other prospects seen at NHSI here. Of course, pitchers are fragile and earlier this week ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported that Lekso would miss his next start due to arm soreness. At this time, I’m not going to react in any other way besides bumping him up my prospect list. High school coaches, typically, keep the player’s best interest in mind. College coaches… well, they don’t. Assuming Lesko returns to health, there is no reason to believe he won’t be the first pitcher taken. Chase DeLauter, an outfielder from James Madison, was considered a potential Top 10 pick before a horrible opening weekend. He was starting to help his draft stock before the news dropped that he may miss the rest of the season. We’ve mentioned Brandon Barriera in this space in recent weeks. In a year where pitching is light, Barriera is deciding to shut it down early and prepare for his next step. If there’s one school that can persuade top prospects to not go pro, it’s Vanderbilt. I don’t think that will be the case here. And finally, because it’s never too early to think about next year’s draft, Ole Miss shortstop Jake Gonzalez is a dude and may be the early favorite to go first overall. Only a few changes in my top 10. Jeremy's Top 10 MLB Draft Prospects 1.) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 2.) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep 3.) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) 4.) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit)(Baseball America breaks down his game.) (previously: 5) 5.) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly (previously: 4) 6.) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU 7.) Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech 8.) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech 9.) Andrew Susac, C, Arizona 10.) Jackson Holliday, SS, Oklahoma prep (Oklahoma State commit) MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS Baseball America - v2.0 (4/1/22) / v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 200 (3/14/22) MLB.com - Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 100 The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22) ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22) My MLB Draft (1/18/22) Prospects Live v1.0 (1/4/22) View full article

Baseball America just released their updated Top 30. 13) Kevin Kopps 14) Jarlin Susana 15) Victor Lizarraga Elliott could certainly end up being the guy. Like you said, he's "funky" and the Twins focus has been more on guys with sliders (which pushes Kopps and Susana up my list). Lizarraga isn't a slider guy, but he's still very young.

What could Kevin Goldstein, formerly of Fangraphs, now with the Twins, have to do with the potential final piece of the Taylor Rogers trade? View full video

Susana "signed" on January 15 at the opening of the IFA window. I'm guessing the official signing took place some days after, assuming he was brought to San Diego for a physical. He's prohibited from being traded for 90 days from the day the pen hit the paper, so we're looking at probably sometime next week at the earliest.

A late night finish on Tuesday has been followed up with early Wednesday transactions as Dereck Rodriguez has had his contract selected, Jharel Cotton has been DFA'd, and Alex Kirilloff has been placed on the IL with a recurrence of last year's wrist problems. Taking his place is Trevor Larnach. The assumption is that Larnach will presumably become the Twins new regular left fielder. But maybe the Twins need to take a closer look at the recently-released Justin Upton. Upton was DFA'd by the Angels last week and cleared waivers earlier this week. The Angels are on the hook for the remainder of his contract. If Upton wants to play major league baseball, he could potentially do it for the Twins for the pro-rated league minimum ($700k). It doesn't take a math genius to figure out that Upton isn't particularly good in left field, nearly every number being preceded by a minus sign tells that story. Of course, having Byron Buxton helping patrol the outfield next to him should help. The other issue, of course, is that if Upton isn't great in the field, he should at least make up for it with his bat, right? Well, you'd hope, but that hasn't been great either. Since his age-31 season in 2019, Upton has put together three straight sub-.730 OPS seasons. But they aren't even full seasons, they're more like Byron Buxton seasons, playing in a combined 194 games, with last year's 89 being a three-year high. So what could Upton provide? He could be an option as a right-handed bat in an outfield that needs it. Maybe you believe in Kyle Garlick. Or maybe you think Gilberto Celestino should fill a part-time role instead of going to St. Paul to play every day. But maybe you think Upton can be worth a look, knowing that you can move on at any time without it being a huge loss. Justin Upton slashed .219/.265/.531 (.796 OPS) in 64 at-bats in 2020 and .225/.355/.483 (.838 OPS) in 89 at-bats against lefties in 2021. Both of those are well off his career .259/.359/.493 (.852 OPS) line, but if believing that Gary Sanchez can benefit from the change of scenery by getting out of the bright lights of New York, can't we believe the same thing about Upton getting out from the terrible contract and underwhelming performance in Los Angeles? View full article

Nice! I'm sticking with my three. All of which would be good gets.

I feel pretty confident that the three I mention as most likely to be included are all in the 40 FV range, without seeing their updated ranking. Lizarraga is a 45 on MLB and Kopps and Susana are both 40, though they don't distinguish between 40 and 40+ like Fangraphs.

From Rosenthal's latest piece, he says "the Twins estimate the value of the player they will get from the group they are considering to be $2 million-plus." Impossible to say how specific players are valued, but I can't imagine a prospect outside of the Top 20(ish) would be described as a $2-million plus player. That's a Top 35-type pick in the draft.