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Everything posted by Platoon
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Bottom line. A streak hitter who piles up stats in bunches making his end of the year numbers ok. But is not that effective in what we now call late and close. Guys like him who 'try' and pull HR's all the time, are like basketball players who shoot more often than they should. 35 pts. one night when things are going well, and 7 the next night when they aren't. But they still keep shooting.
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Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Fixing the Offense
Platoon replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Why is everyone piling on Ted? -
Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Fixing the Offense
Platoon replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
While it's one of the most unlikely, the one guy who would totally ignite this bunch is Buxton. His speed turns a simple walk into a double. He has gap power plus. Operating like he did last half last year, this is a completely different offense. But I am not sure if he will reach that level this year, although I still think it will happen in his career. The guy with the best track record of half season resurrections is of course Dozier. He can certainly hang up the stats, even though I have never been convinced he can do it consistently in high leverage situations. The reason I didn't consider Sano is I don't think he will be in contention for the task this year. He isn't going to go down to FL, then to Rochester and mash MiLB pitching and be back anytime soon. This is likely the FO giving Sano his last chance to resurrect his career in MN. They aren't going to rush the process, frankly I think they will slow walk it. -
Baseball may be the only game where one has the time between plays to envision the possibilities that can occur during the next pitch. You can stand in the field and consider the score, the hitter, his leg speed, where and of what abilities the runners are, the wind, wet ball dry ball. All of the variables can be considered, so when up the ball is hit, you can react accordingly with aforethought. The basics, cutoff positions, behind or ahead of runners, etc, have all been drilled into you since you were 15 or before. What remains is does the player want to invest in the mental exercise needed to follow his past instruction, and if he does not, does the manager want to do something about it. It's that simple. How a manger handles these things is what defines him. Let's take Rosario for example. Noted free lancer. A couple years ago he stole third against a shift. walked to third is a better description. I think there were two outs, us up. Molitor had a fit, and IIRC Rosario was exiled to Rochester. Completely BS. But when Rosario throws a baseball all over the field repeatedly nothing is said. I like Rosario, he plays with passion and ability. He also plays with a lack of attention to detail. And will continue to do so. My point is how and when you discipline a player is important in his development. And in the isolated case of Rosario was handled poorly.
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I guess my point was that some of the players lost this year, were not playing anywhere near last year, in fact they were fairly lousy. But for example, if this years Eddies both twisted an ankle this year, we're toast. If this years Dozier does it, no one would notice. Take out Doziers first week of the season, and the Kirby Puckett statue could fill in with little loss of productivity.
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Injuries: Santana: injured and so far well replaced. Off season decisions might have turned out quite differently if on hand. Quite possibly worse. Polanco: suspended Sano: sent down due to performance and ??? Buxton: mysteriously sent for rehab, injured, back, DL, rehab. And no production at any time. Mauer. Good performance, out a month. Castro: injured, but was really not making any difference, offensively. When you get down to it, the end result is a pitch framing catcher, and Joe Mauer for a month, and Buxton defense. Polanco from late last year is likely missed, as is Buxton from late last year. Bottom line, the only known loss of consequence was actually Mauer for a month. The rest are "but what if's"
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Good article, and lots of thoughtful comments. Molitors knowledge of the game may be expansive. But that doesn't make him a good manager. I know a lot of big words, but that doesn't make me a good writer. Simply neither he nor I can transfer our 'knowledge' across a divide. That said, by rights I should be a Molitor fan, he is somewhat of the persona I like in a manager. Low key, calm, and outwardly unflappable. Think Bud Grant Jr. But something is amiss. Bud was a disciplinarian. A guy of basics. You didn't get to repeatedly screw up, nor were you publicly castigated. You just disappeared. Yet he was flexible in his approach to changes in the game. Molitor has the same outward feel to him, but he doesn't seem to be able to get his players to follow. MLB player know how to run bases, they know where a cutoff man is. These are things you learn in high school or before. Some players do them by rote. A Mauer, Kepler, Escobar. Some are more loose with their decisions. Rosario being the poster child. Adrianza on the bases. If you can't clean up those blatant issues, then no one will pay any real attention to other declarations you make. Like I said above I have always been a low key managerial fan. But as another poster noted, maybe that doesn't work in today's baseball. Frankly Latin players, and fans, view the game differently and play the game differently. But just acknowledging that fact and adjusting to it are harder to do than one would think. Mientkiewicz? Maybe Brock is right, maybe Mientkiewicz would fight analytical managing to the bitter end. Then again maybe he wouldn't. But one thing seems obvious. He wins. His players seem to like him, he has their back. He also seems a disciplinarian. Simply saying an analytically challenged manager won't win in MLB baseball is the same as saying an analytical manager will win. Managing is way more complicated than that. Otherwise go to MIT and grab the best math major on campus. But we all know that won't work. What does seem obvious, if we simply stick to the simple choice of Molitor v Mientkiewicz, is that for some reason Doug wins consistently, and Paul doesn't. Joe Madden wins a lot. Talent has of course much to do with it. But someone has to make that talent coalesce. So far that hasn't happened here. As mentioned, there have been some very good takes posted above and in the OP. But sadly I fear mine, like the others is a waste of digital ink. There just doesn't seem, to me, to be any scenario short of a voluntary resignation where Pohlad makes a change. With the well documented personal relationship that is in play here, the infamous "Molitor stays" decree, and the new contract, Paul Molitor will remain your Twins manager for the foreseeable future. Those of us looking for consistency in the Twins operation will have finally found one.
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Happy Birthday Moneyball (and Damn You)
Platoon commented on Steven Buhr's blog entry in SD Buhr/Jim Crikket
It would likely do the same thing but be more controversial. It seems to be a sacred topic. I hope someday something changes. I just don't find the game as entertaining as it used to be. While I do understand the effectiveness of advanced stats, there is a difference between from and function. -
Happy Birthday Moneyball (and Damn You)
Platoon commented on Steven Buhr's blog entry in SD Buhr/Jim Crikket
The high velocity arms, the shifts, 3 true outcomes, the emphasis on launch angle and on working the count are all semi inter related. And making the game harder to watch. And longer to watch. That said I don't begrudge teams for implementing them, as they all are necessary in today's game, but seem to have unintended consequences. You pass up a FB down the middle on 1-0 count, to see more pitches and end up 2-2 to someone with a vicious slider? And wonder why you are hitting .237? True, analytics may show you ended up with a walk, making your OBP acceptable, but walks are not exciting, they are boring as hell. Teams shift, and take away a rocket with the second baseman 30' into RF. Good strategy, poor entertainment. You hit 14 fly balls, one leaves the park. 13 guys jog back to the dugout, one guys jogs around the bases. Maybe it's a 3 run game winner, maybe it's a meaningless solo. But it's really not exciting to see Robbie Grossman catch a fly ball. The reality is you can have winning baseball that is boring baseball. And heaven forbid if you are not winning. It's also possible to enjoy baseball via the analytical route and the old style route. That enjoyment, knowledge of the game, and appreciation of same doesn't have to be at odds. Solutions? At first glance moving the mound does seem interesting. But it would simply allow more home run emphasis, and less on getting on base via singles and doubles, and playing sound defense. I think the true answer is also the impossible one. Increasing the size of the parks, meaning the OF depth. Simply look at NY as an example, it's a band box. You practically can't hit a double to RF, it's either an out, a HR, or a long single. But needless to say, no one is going to start building all new parks in all new dimensions. I don't know what the outcome will be, but eventually the type of game now played will drive away fans. Plus 3 hour games, long AB's, pitching changes et al will force someone to find a solution. Whether I or we agree with it remains to be seen. -
Article: Miguel Sano's Struggles
Platoon replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Conditioning and weight are relative to each persons body. There just is no way around the extra 30 lbs. Sano is carrying. It's not whether the leg injury was the cause of the gain or his lifestyle, it's the 30 lbs. and I totally agree, if his leg is still week and it may easily be, you don't hit well on bad pins. I broke my fibula in Jan. The bone is healed but the leg isn't close to normal strength yet. And that's the small bone. -
Article: Trying to Get a Reed on Addison
Platoon replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's very easy to say that Reed (and Pressly) are suffering from Molitor Abuse. As will Hildy if Molitor switches his focus to him. Then again it's easy to say that Reed is simply losing it. But it's more likely a combination of the two. An astute MOY would realize that one good Reed outing is better than two bad ones. This pattern of overuse is not recent, driven by the need to remain in 'the race'. He burned out relievers in 2015 also, in the race for the first draft choice. I think that the high pitch counts for SP, and the 100 pitch plateau is causing a lot of stress on bullpens, making decisions on how to distribute innings more complicated, and more impactful. And the implications of the decisions even more obvious. -
I am all in on the rigidly and favorites assumptions, and have been since the beginning of his tenure. But I do disagree with the FO supplying him with who he wants. If that's the case I don't think we need a FO, simply a GM/coach figure. I have said this before, and will repeat. Good managers probably don't "win" ball games. But bad managers definitely lose them. While I know that premise is subjective, after 3 years it can also be obvious.
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It seems it's been very difficult for baseball op-ed writers to call out Sano on his focus and effort. It's nice to see someone do it. It's also nice to see someone acknowledge this is a message move. Molitor did make a vague reference to it in his statement, but the FO release was mostly BS.
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Article: Miguel Sano Optioned to Ft. Myers
Platoon replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Who are the hitting coaches on those teams. Fort Meyers coach more respected, more fundamentalist? Otherwise the problem with this is he is going to see some very easy stuff to hit, there won't be good off speed stuff to hone that flaw in his game. Or is this more disciplinary? A wake up call? That I could see. That also explains why he didn't PH today for Cave. Although with Molitor managing its really hard to ascribe a rationale to any particular move. I still think there is way more to this than meets the eye. -
The contact play decision is also impacted by where you are in the order, and who's up next. In this cas RG. Since his forte is the 3-2 walk, that ain't gonna score a run. Morrison was next, but by the time he gets up a fly ball likely won't do it. Frankly this offense is so bad, I wonder if the suicide squeeze wouldn't be a good idea with Sano up? Yah, that's so sad.
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If you take a look at this lineup it's amazing they win any games. Dozier, Sano, Morrison are doing basically nothing. Buxton was not either and is injured. Mauer was, and is injured. Kepler really cooled off. The production from Wilson, Adrianza, Garver, RG and whoever else is up for the week is as expected. It's only the two ED's keeping them afloat. And sooner or later they have to cool off, it's almost unavoidable. It's really a sorry state. Without the improvement in the SP we would be last in the Central, and that takes some serious doing. They are almost becoming unwatchable. It will take a miracle or Dozier, Sano and Buxton to all recover their mojo at the same time. But there really isnt an alternative.
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This has been my grumble for years about Dozier. There normally nothing wrong with his end of the year stats, but he has never seemed to perform well in the clutch. It's why I was never an advocate for him as a middle of the order hitter. It's probably the only agreement that the MOY and I have.
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Twins Pen is a Problem in More Ways Than One
Platoon commented on Ted Schwerzler 's blog entry in Off The Baggy
It didn't take long for Belisle to appear last night. Of course so did Pressly. Molitor isn't any better than the high school and college coaches who completely abuse their best pitchers. He is yet another example of the fact that great MLB players do not necessarily make great managers.- 5 comments
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Article: Twins Sign Belisle: What Does This Mean?
Platoon replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Bingo...... But now the raccoon is in the woods, and Belisle was already on the mound.- 82 replies
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