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USAFChief

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Everything posted by USAFChief

  1. USAFChief
    I am a sceptic about pitch framing, so take that into account. Disclaimer posted. An extra 2 strikes a game...I guess that's possible. Although my hunch is further research down the line will call that into question, much like many of the writers who treated defensive metrics as gospel a few years ago are backing off that stance now. But 40 runs per year? I don't think that's possible.
  2. USAFChief
    I suspect Gordon will be ranked ahead of Polanco on more than one list. Have you seen them play, Seth?
  3. USAFChief
    I agree there's a place for both. Baseball is hard to predict. I will say it won't bother me if they shift the balance a bit more towards the empirical side though. Here's hoping the next manager is really good at both.
  4. USAFChief
    I've unlocked the thread...plz don't go back and change predictions, but feel free to add comments.
  5. USAFChief
    The (preliminary) results are in! Ashburyjohn is THE WINNER!!1!1!! I will give everyone a week to check my work...if I got it wrong, plz PM me. 1. Ash. 21. (An independent investigator has been retained to look into "fixing" charges. MTF.) 2. WollyWW, Ssuperdave, cMathewson, 20 5. JustinCB, DGWills, 19 7. BeckMT, willihammer, 18 9. Levi, iTwins, minn55441, gm64, grubah 17 14. Nick, diehard, chief, kingofhiscastle, RB, spindoctor02, Halsey, sconnie16 21. Mike Frazier Law, Duluthfan, mrbrooks, 15 24. Trautman13, Thrylos, hoskenbd, sydneytwinsfan, twinscowboysbulls, dam DC, 14 31. Tobi, ericchri, nicksaviking, zakprior, 13 35. Biggentleben, piusjefferson, 11 37. Glanzer. 10 Edit: In trying to check my work, I noticed I somehow missed sconnie the first time through...added him to the group with 16.
  6. USAFChief
    It's not over yet. But you have a solid lead.
  7. USAFChief
    Yup...TDY to the pentagon, scored some great ducats on stubhub, hopped on the metro, on sat two rows behind FDR.
  8. USAFChief
    It's worse than you think. We long ago pacified Minnesota...to the point we don't even need a small containment force remaining there. We are now working all of Central and Western North America.
  9. USAFChief
    Don't mean to speak for Kwak, but in my case I can no more quit investing time and energy in my Twins fandom than I can stop investing in breathing. Sometimes I wish it weren't thus, but there ya go..."wish in one hand" and all that.
  10. USAFChief
    All true. Although I think even Clayton Kershaw can run out of gas, at which point I tend to point to managerial decision over random chance. One truism I've mentioned before and still believe...lose a lead late with a reliever on the mound, that's on the reliever. Lose a lead late with the starter on the mound, that's usually on the manager. But yeah...trying to figure out baseball is hard.
  11. USAFChief
    I might conclude that bullpens are important, good relievers really aren't cheap and easy to find, and managerial decisions really do matter.
  12. USAFChief
    I see the point as: a top minor league system is nice, but one reason it's a bit misleading to put too much stock in it is some of the comparisons should be to young players already contributing at the major league level, rather than just to other minor leaguers. The goal is to get these guys to the big leagues, have them produce, and win games. Having a 24 yr old put up nice numbers in Rochester doesn't win any MLB games...he should be compared to a similar 24 yr old producing in the majors.
  13. USAFChief
    If injuries were all that caused 2011, shouldn't they have been good in 2012? And if payroll isn't part of putting a winner on the field, then would you be OK with everyone making the minimum, and a $12.5m payroll? If you don't believe money matters, then that's the logical extension of your argument..."more wont make them better, so less can't make them worse."
  14. USAFChief
    Well, they could open up their books to a a public, independent audit, and remove much doubt. I don't think they'll do that though, leaving all of us to use the best information we have to make our judgement.
  15. USAFChief
    I strongly prefer someone from outside the org. But if it does come down to these two, I agree with Nick. Look forward, not back, and go with DM.
  16. USAFChief
    Yes.
  17. USAFChief
    Great. Just great. I recorded that game and was planning on watching it without knowing the score.
  18. USAFChief
    I was once informed that comparing me to a box of rocks was complimentary. I believe that was in basic training.
  19. USAFChief
    If Bourgeois was a solution in CF, it seems odd he'd be on his third team in three years. I think people are overreacting to a perceived need to improve the OF defense at all costs.
  20. USAFChief
    that is a fair point. But I would feel more inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt if the difference wasn't so large, if there were evidence the difference would disappear if we used multi year averages, or if there were no clear needs to improve the team. I dont see any of those things in evidence, but that's just me perhaps.
  21. USAFChief
    It is at least theoretically possible that the number has an effect on the play on the field, though, no?
  22. USAFChief
    Nitpic: Lester won't net the A's a draft pick.
  23. USAFChief
    I agree.
  24. USAFChief
    I view payroll as a "big picture" item.
  25. USAFChief
    Would it be fair to say, based on examples like Detroit, that some teams in similar situations chose to put payroll concerns at a lower priority?
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