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alarp33

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Everything posted by alarp33

  1. alarp33
    Not sure if you are understanding how stats work. Of course it shows both sides of the equation. I thought that was obvious. https://thepowerrank.com/cluster-luck/ The Tigers were as "unlucky" as the Twins were "lucky"
  2. alarp33
    Wow, lots of words there to tell me Pujols has had a better career than Chris Davis. You weren't ever going to get any argument from me on that. "Pujols had a way better (HOF) track record and that contract looks terrible now." Maybe I was nitpicking, but my initial issue was how this was phrased... I simply pointed out the contracts aren't comparable at all. If Albert Pujols had signed a 7 year contract at age 30, for $17 million/year w/ deferrals tacked on at the end, it would have looked great. Albert Pujols contract looks terrible now, because it always looked terrible. They gave a 32 year old who had started to enter his decline 10 years and well over $200 million. The Angels will pay a 40-41 year old Pujols $59 million in 2021-2022. Kind of puts $42 million over 15 years into perspective. Chris Davis' contract ends when he is 36 years old. There will almost certainly be a decline at the end, my simple point was they may get enough value during his age 30-33 seasons that it doesn't really matter. The contract was structured nicely.
  3. alarp33
    I'm not a Vargas guy either. Your last paragraph is why I wrote what I wrote. Signing Park may work out fine in the long run, but I think its more than fair to call the 1 off season signing of a DH, nonsensical, when they had Sano there. The move to RF screams desperation and poor planning to me. I'm sticking in the camp that they signed Park with the full intentions of trading Plouffe, only to realize they weren't going to get anything for him, and panicking. I don't want Sano to be a full time DH either, but leaving him there, letting him and Plouffe split 3b+Dh, or trading Plouffe, signing a RF or rolling with Arcia for a month or two until Kepler is ready, would have made more "sense" to me.
  4. alarp33
    Umm, signing a DH when they had 3-4 of them in the system?
  5. alarp33
    $42 million spread over 20 years is an insignificant amount to MLB owners, so ignoring it is more than fair. In no way will those deferred payments effect the Orioles future payrolls. Looks like we're in agreement that there is no comparison to the Pujols contract, but you cherry picked career stats. You seem impressed by the last 3 years of an injured Pujols putting up 116, 126, 118 OPS+. But you write off Davis by using his career numbers, which were bad in Texas. His last 4 years his OPS+ is 121, 168, 96, 146. He has been a significantly better hitter than Angels Albert Pujols.
  6. alarp33
    I'm not sure I'm understanding the Pujols comp at all. How about looking at it this way. Pujols is 36, he will make $165 million over the next 6 years. Davis is 30, he will make $119 over the next 7. When Davis is 36 he will have 1 year and $17 million left on his deal (and a few million/ year in deferrals) That's not a valid comp at all to simply say "Pujols contract looks bad, so does Davis!" I'm not sure any team in baseball, even the Cubs, have a current "8-10 year window". Let alone the Indians. Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar all are under team control for 3-4 years I believe. Lindor is going to be the SS for 6 years. Where do you get this 8-10 year window? If I'm a GM and have 3 healthy, front of the rotation starters... my window is right now, because we all know how quickly that can flame out.
  7. alarp33
    The thing that is crazy to me about Ryan's refusal to offer 2 year deals, is that he has absolutely no issue burning money on tendering contracts to Arb guys who could very easily be non tendered. Duensing, Fien, Nunez, etc. Add up Duensing + Stauffer's salaries last year, Fien and Nunez's this year, and you've got 2yr/$10mill
  8. alarp33
    That's not how many works, they aren't paying him $23 million a year. Here's an article that explains deferred money for you. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-of-deferred-money-in-the-chris-davis-deal/ 30-37 = 8 seasons. It was a 7 year contract, expires when he is 36.
  9. alarp33
    1) It's not $42 million using Net Present Value calculation 2) Pujols was 2 years older when he signed a contract that was 3 years longer and for quite a bit more money. 3) Fangraphs had him worth $52 million in 2013 and $44.8 million in 2015. So calling them just good years is a bit of an understatement. 4) Yes, power hitters generally don't age well, but he's just about to play his age 30 season. My point is the way this contract is structured, the risk is not nearly as great as it may appear if you just look at "7/$161". He gives you even 3-4 good seasons it's worth it. It's the exact gamble a team like the Indians who have 3 potentially elite pitchers locked up for the next 3-4 years should be making.
  10. alarp33
    That's not really how stats like this work. Here's an example I read elsewhere that explains cluster in the simplest way ever. If the Twins get 9 hits in a game, all singles. If those 9 hits all come in the 4th inning, they would likely score 7 runs. If those 9 hits come in separate innings, they would likely get shut out. Cluster luck accounts for this. Players in general, or managers, don't possess some kind of special skill to make sure all their hits come in the same inning. Highly inflated cluster numbers, or RISP numbers, generally even out to the mean over time. The Twins may very well get "lucky" again... but they may also have a much better team offense, yet be on the bad side of "cluster luck" and score less runs than last year.
  11. alarp33
    We are talking about this offseason. You said specifically they upgraded at DH and RF. October 2015 ---> Present DH: Sano ----> Park RF: Hunter ----> Sano One of those is an upgrade, the other is not
  12. alarp33
    You have pretty flawed reasoning here. Sano was the DH entering this offseason... why does the Twins general DH production from last April - June matter in your equation? Park isn't replacing Vargas' 3 months at DH, he is replacing Sano for 6 months at DH
  13. alarp33
    7 years at $17 million per (w/ deferrals after that) is absurd? I'm sure they would have preferred 5 years, but with the way salaries are trending paying Chris Davis $17 million in 2022 will be nothing.
  14. alarp33
    This is the formula used I believe, I think the .285 number can changed, as its based off of runs scored per game across the league.... Not positive on that W% = RS^x/(RS^x + RA^x) Where x = ((RS + RA)/G)^.285 Base runs had the Twins at 73 wins last year, so those 64 runs of cluster luck worked out to an additional 10 wins
  15. alarp33
    "The Power Rank calculates cluster luck by using the Base Runs formula to compare actual runs scored and runs allowed to expected runs scored and runs allowed." If I understand it correctly, the Base Runs formula says the Twins should have scored 33 less runs, and given up 31 more runs than they did in 2015.
  16. alarp33
    It's a very real thing. https://thepowerrank.com/cluster-luck/ The Twins benefited on Offense and Defense quite a bit. This can explain how the Twins were 15th in the AL in OBP, and 12th in Slugging, yet scored the 8th most runs.
  17. alarp33
    Cleveland seems like a logical landing spot for Dexter Fowler - if they sign him I would go as far as to say they are favorites in the Central
  18. alarp33
    Like the other poster said, I'm not ranking who I would have rather had in 2015. I'm not sold on Rosario's bat, hope I am wrong. Also, what was the Twins DH OPS+ Pre-Sano (Sano is not the DH anymore)? Park may hit 25-30 Home Runs, he also may not make the roster out of Spring and have a tough adjustment.
  19. alarp33
    It looks a little different when you don't combine OF into 1 position, and 2b+3B into one.... C- Draw/ Lean White Sox 1B - White Sox 2B- Twins SS- Twins 3B- White Sox LF- White Sox (Cabrera over Rosario) CF- White Sox (I think Buxton is going to breakout this year, but Eaton is proven) RF- Twins DH - Who knows I should note, I'd take the Twins lineup... but I'm not sure about the clear cut advantage you think they have.
  20. alarp33
    Thorpe was the "sleeper" prospect (I think the 2nd or 3rd time he's been the "sleeper"). Cabbage was in the backend of the top 20
  21. alarp33
    Another note for the ABW cheerleaders... Klaw did not have him among his top 19 Twins prospects
  22. alarp33
    You'd have to ask Keith that. I will go as far as predicting Berrios does not become the next Pedro Martinez, and Kohl Stewart does not become the next Roger Clemens. But there have been a lot more "Aces" built like Clemens than "Aces" built like Pedro
  23. alarp33
    I'm not sure why or how Greg Maddux made it into this thread, seeing as Stewart pitches nothing like him. I think it's probably as simple as, with the stuff each has, both great, if they put it all together, the guy who is 6'3" has the higher ceiling than the guy who is 5'11". Yes there is Pedro, but sub 6' RH starters are few and far between
  24. alarp33
    1st part is correct, but O'Rourke was very impressive vs lefties. .171/.292/.268 slash line vs lefties. The problem is he's a LOOGY in the truest sense of the term
  25. alarp33
    I would actually bet that Klaw would agree Stewart has the higher ceiling, which is why he's ranked 53rd even though its most projection at this point. Berrios has the much higher floor.
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