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James Richter

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Everything posted by James Richter

  1. James Richter
    After watching Bill Smith over the last few years, nobody should understand that better than Twins fans.
  2. James Richter
    Since his TJS, Liriano has been dreadful just as often as he's been outstanding. 122 G, 638.2 IP - these are not trivial sample sizes. Over that time, he averages out to 4.69 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and fewer than 6 IP/GS. We should be thankful that anybody was crazy enough to give up anything at all for two months of that.
  3. James Richter
    Sounds like a good idea to me. Shields is a lot like Brad Radke (workhorse, good K/BB, too many HRs), and just the sort of proven front-of-the-rotation guy the Twins should be looking to sign in the offseason for similar AAV. What's great about Shields vs. comparable FAs is that they don't have to commit to more than 2 years, and can even make it 1 if they want. The fiscally challenged Rays can plug one of their serfs into the rotation while saving $10M+ between Shields and Upton. As we know, Span's game translates very well to turf, and he's a Tampa native. Though if they really want to save money in the short term, they might prefer Revere. I would trade either one straight up for Shields. (Or Hellickson. Or Cobb. Not Wade Davis, though.)
  4. James Richter
    $14M might be a shade too lowball, but this is essentially exactly what the Twins' approach should be. And I haven't seen anything to suggest that a team couldn't make qualifying offers indefinitely.
  5. James Richter
    Several of the 2nd-tier options are spending some time on the DL this season. I don't think many FAs will get lengthy deals without a track record of durability. This will play into the Twins' hands this offseason. Had they reached 200 IP, guys like Marcum, McCarthy and Lewis all could have been looking at $30M+ guaranteed. Now I think they may have to settle for less than $25M, particularly whoever still doesn't have a chair by January. There's no excuse for the front office not to sign at least one guy at that price. Outside of Liriano, I think it's pretty important for the near-term future of the organization for the in-house SP options to struggle for the rest of the season. That includes Diamond - it would be better if his ERA winds up closer to 4.00. We need the front office to believe that nobody under team control is capable of filling the front half of the rotation. If they do, they might prioritize spending some money on someone who could actually plug that hole.
  6. James Richter
    I hope they keep on thinking of Burton and Perkins as the guys who pitch the 8th & 9th inning of close games, in whichever order. Outside of Burton, I would consider any of the Twins' upper level RH relievers to be expendable. By themselves, they wouldn't bring much, but adding one to a package should raise the overall value of the return.
  7. James Richter
    I had this misconception as well, but MLB Trade Rumors cleared it up the other day. The Twins would only get one pick back for Liriano, and it would be the sandwich pick. So if somebody offers a prospect who's as good or better than a 30-something overall selection, that's all it should take to pull the trigger on a trade. Having said that, it probably couldn't hurt to offer him a 2-year extension at $10M/season or less right now. If he turns it down, oh well. If he accepts, check one pitcher off the shopping list. I know we'll all go crazy if he forgets how to throw strikes again, but any of the other FA SPs could break down and turn out to be a waste of money, too. Should we prefer the devil we know?
  8. James Richter
    I'd put the over/under on Hamels at 6/$130M. Definitely going to get $20M+ per, definitely going to get 6+ years guaranteed. The market loves lefty aces. $19.5M/year might land Greinke, but they'd probably have to go at least 5 years. With the injury, Marcum might not get $10M AAV, but I bet he gets more than 6.5M. Maybe a match of Pavano's deal? No need for Torii - Benson's gonna be able to at least match the old man's OPS, and with much fresher legs...
  9. James Richter
    When we're talking about Span's career numbers, I think the decent thing to do would be to give him a mulligan on the two weeks he spent last August trying to play through a concussion. When he's had depth perception, he's hit .286/.363/.390, which is a fair bit better than Mr. Becker, who accumulated his numbers in the midst of an era in which offense was awfully cheap...
  10. James Richter
    You're right on the first point. Rather than have 3 blue chip OFs at Rochester next April, why not turn one of them into a blue chip SP? That would be a good way to fill a desperate organizational need without weakening the Major League roster. But Hicks is not blocked. If he sustains his AA performance into the Majors, there isn't anybody who can keep him out of the lineup. His OBP and range would be similar to Span and Revere, but with a far better IsoP and arm. Those guys either go to LF, the bench, or another team when Hicks is ready. Arcia is the guy the Twins should be most willing to part with. He doesn't hit lefties, he doesn't walk much, he doesn't steal bases. While he's not bad in the OF, his range isn't anywhere near Hicks' or Benson's. While they can still provide value through slumps with their legs, gloves and patience, Arcia can only be useful when he's annihilating RHPs. He'll be a solid major leaguer in the vein of Jason Kubel, but he'll be hard-pressed to contribute as much as the other two can.
  11. James Richter
    I'm sure the thought was that Appel would either go #1 or #2, so why agree to take less than the slot value of the #2 pick (the $6.2M the Twins gave Buxton)? That was rational enough. But when the Astros picked option C (Correa), Boras' strategy blew up in his face: the Twins though Buxton was the better talent, the Mariners wanted Zunino, the O's and Royals scouts preferred Gausman and Zimmer, the Cubs always wanted Almora. Before they new it, more than $6M had turned into less than $4M. What is not rational is to risk this kid's future on the slim chance that he'll be picked higher next year. Appel wasn't the consensus top pitcher in a weak draft class, so why would they think he'd do better in a deeper pool? Imagine that next year's draft class has three pitchers of the same ability as Gausman, Zimmer and uninjured Giolito. Wouldn't you take one of the younger guys who had less mileage on his arm? His age is going to be a reason to pass on him next year. This holdout isn't about what's best for Mark Appel.
  12. James Richter
    Here's what has to happen: 1) Everything that's been going well (Diamond, Liriano 2.0, Plouffe, relatively good health, etc.) keeps going well, 2) Morneau hits .312/.382/.544 in the 2nd half, raising his 2012 stats up to his career averages, 3) Carroll hits .312/.386/.408 in the 2nd half, raising his 2012 stats up to his career averages. He moves up to the #2 spot in the lineup because, 4) Tampa accepts Revere in a straight-up trade for James Shields. Tomorrow. Doumit, Parmelee and Mastroianni hold down RF and bat 7th or 8th. Shields, liberated from facing the bomb squads of the AL East, wins 11 games down the stretch, 5) Dozier goes back to Rochester to work on some things. Carroll goes back to SS, Casilla to 2B, batting 9th. Casilla doesn't hit any better than Dozier, but steals more bases and prevents about 15 unearned runs, 6) Heartened by a 13-3 run to start the 2nd half (including a 3-game sweep of the Sox in Chicago), TR decides to go all in. He convinces the Brewers to accept a quantity package for Greinke consisting of Arcia, Hermsen, any RH reliever from Rochester, any pitcher from New Britain, and any player from Fort Myers. Greinke wins 10 down the stretch, and enjoys MN so much that he signs a 5-year extension at $18.5M/season. 7) Peavy gets hurt and Konerko and AJ remember that they're old and should be declining. The Sox play slightly under .500 ball the rest of the way, and the Tigers and Indians finish with records befitting their run differentials. Yeah, that outta do it!
  13. James Richter
    Since moving to Target Field, the Twins' average combined spending on the MLB payroll and the Draft has been about $110M. It was about $119M last year, about $112M this year. As dreadful as the first half was, they're on pace to get the 6th or 7th overall pick next year (slotted at about half what they gave Buxton), and it doesn't look as though they'll have any supplemental picks. They're on their way to spending no more than half what they spent on the 2012 draft next year. So if they maintain a Major League payroll of about $100M, they will have reduced total player expenditures by $6-7M. Do they need to cut any more than that? I doubt it - they're still on pace to draw over 2.8 million in attendance. The money will be there to sign two good starters. The only question is whether they'll have the will to spend it.
  14. James Richter
    I think he'd take it, too. I can't see another team giving up a 1st rounder to offer a multi-year deal to a guy as inconsistent as Liriano (though somebody like San Diego might give up a 2nd-rounder, I suppose.) Whether or not the Twins should offer it depends on their risk tolerance. Everybody on John's list except for Sanchez has health/consistency question marks, but will probably get contracts that guarantee $10M or so per season for multiple years. Nick's right: the Twins can't get a higher-upside starter for less guaranteed money than Liriano. If he pitches well for the remainder of July, I think the FO should plan on making him a qualifying offer after the season. Therefore, they shouldn't trade him for anything less than the value of the 2 comp picks. But, if somebody offers better value than that, by all means take it. If he's still around at the end of the season, let him choose between $12.5M for one year or a 2-year deal with an option - lower AAV, but more guaranteed money. But I wouldn't offer him an extension until after he's pitched well for 4 straight months. As for the rest of the rotation, the Twins had better be planning on spending at least $20M for two starters. If recent offseasons are any indication, there will be something decent left at the $8M level in January.
  15. James Richter
    Every position player on the 25-man roster is now under team control for 2013. I take this as a signal that the FO is going to make an effort not to field a dreadful team next season.
  16. James Richter
    Thank you, Mr. Diamond, for that excellent example of what happens when you don't do 1 & 2.
  17. James Richter
    Pitch-to-contact can work as long as the following 3 conditions are met: 1) You never walk anybody 2) You keep the ball in the yard 3) You have a rangy and sure-handed defense behind you This year, the defense is doing an OK job with number 3. Blackburn (and most other Twins starters) is doing a lousy job with 1 & 2. Scott Diamond is averaging over 6 IP/GS and has a stellar ERA despite pedestrian H/9 and K/9 because he's doing a stupendous job with 1 & 2.
  18. James Richter
    This gets to the heart of it. I like to formulate it this way: Blackburn isn't good enough to get away with walking people. He's always been hittable, but when his BB/9 was 1.8 he could keep the dam from bursting most nights. The extra baserunners that have come from his reduced control over the last couple years have made big innings almost inevitable. He's also unlikely to pick up his defense if they miss a play behind him. Still, they're stuck with him. They just have to hope he can get back to being an adequate #5 starter. At some point next season the front office may have to determine whether it's better for the team to pay him not to pitch.
  19. James Richter
    The schedule is set up for the Twins to get away with a 4-man rotation of Diamond, Liriano, Hendriks and Blackburn for the rest of the month, with the exception of the 23rd and half of the double-header on the 30th. For those, I'd try to get 3-5 IP out of Manship, but have Duensing prepared to throw 40 or so pitches in long relief. Hopefully, between the two of them, they'd get through 6 IP and set up Burton, Perkins and Capps. That buys them about three weeks to figure out whether Pavano is going to be able to return at full strength. If he can't, and the Twins have pulled within 6 games of of the division leader with half the season still to play, I think the front office will be obligated to acquire another quality Major League SP somehow.
  20. James Richter
    League splits broken down by batting order, position, whatever else you could want: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2012Or you can use the pull-down menus on the ESPN site, like so: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/split/109/league/al/sort/onBasePct/minpa/150 Others?
  21. James Richter
    I think part of the reason they picked Cory was to have a good foil for Gladden. It's a nice "Good Cop, Bad Cop" tandem. Personally, I love the way Gladden calls the game with his former player/scout's eye. Anytime anybody from either team does something unprofessional, he nails them immediately. On the con side, he doesn't always let you know right away what's going on. There isn't much change in his tone of voice between a routine fly and a 2nd-deck homer; that difference was always pretty clear with Gordon. Listening to that Thome HR off Thornton a couple of years ago, I thought it had just barely cleared the high wall. When I saw the replay I couldn't believe Gladden hadn't gone bananas the second it left the bat.
  22. James Richter
    Based on how they've acted in the past, I think the Pohlads like making money. Fielding a competitive team next year will help them make money. Ryan has historically addressed the team's needs pretty well within the constraints of the budget and the available players on the market. I don't take it as a foregone conclusion that the payroll is going down next year. But even if it drops by another $13M, and Ryan only has $22M available to sign free agents, I can't think of any better way to spend it than on two $11M SPs. Now if they kid themselves into thinking that Diamond is an ace and they can get away with signing Joe Blanton, I'm sure they'll do that. But if they're honest about what they've got, and what they need, they'll be bidding on #2 starters next winter.
  23. James Richter
    I love the call on the flagpole shot. "Oh my goodness gracious" is the Dick Bremer equivalent of "Holy sh#$!"
  24. James Richter
    They will if they don't want to see a decline in attendance again next year.
  25. James Richter
    Texas Rangers (last 3 games before the ASB): 35-26 (.574)Other teams after this weekend (17 games): 149-147 (.503). And even though the Pirates are 5 games over .500, they've got a -17 run differential. So, sure, the schedule is getting tougher, but it's still not tough.
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