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Shane Wahl

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Everything posted by Shane Wahl

  1. Shane Wahl
    The game might be more interesting if there were true unreachable zones.
  2. Shane Wahl
    Um, you answered your own question (ironically with a question mark at the end of the sentence).
  3. Shane Wahl
    Well, he will be serviceable for a long time as a fourth OF, starting in his 30s. I think both teams still got good deals in that trade.
  4. Shane Wahl
    True, Brock. And I have far less of an issue with anti-WAR people than those who will say "OPS doesn't actually measure anything" (yes, I have read that before).
  5. Shane Wahl
    I don't think bringing Escobar in to play short was the problem. The problem was not pinch hitting for him with Carroll when he came up. I just assumed that this was what Gardy was thinking. He pinch hits for Florimon because he has two infielders, one for defense and one to come in to pinch hit (because Escobar is also a mess at the plate). BUT NO. NOPE.
  6. Shane Wahl
    You don't think I qualified the comparison enough?
  7. Shane Wahl
    And Delmon Young. I really don't like the idea of demoting a player, especially after promoting them too fast in the first place.
  8. Shane Wahl
    I know Morales doesn't deserve a promotion, but there is some history will low performance (Hicks, probably others) at Fort Myers and then a jump with the jump to New Britain. He is just kinda stagnating right there. I would be actually upset if I were Bigley. He deserves a chance to prove himself at AAA (even though I have nothing against Ramirez and Boggs, it might be nice to have another option).
  9. Shane Wahl
    Might want to fix "Orlando" to "Oswaldo" instead. Thanks for posting these. Again some strange decisions. Morales not in NB?? Maybe the push Williams or even Jimenez up to FM once Kepler is good? Then Morales could move up, Roberts when back can join NB, Bigley could go to AAA and they can say BYE-BYE to the nonsense filler that is Clete Thomas??????? Thomas is totally redundant with Brandon Boggs, after all. At least Boggs could be a legitimate fill-in for the Twins if things broke down there.
  10. Shane Wahl
    This discussion is occurring after one game???? Anyway, Verlander is demonically good and one cannot expect someone who has barely faced pitching beyond AA to deal appropriately with a pitcher like that. Verlander fooled Willingham on the same pitch many times (the curve). It is a ridiculous pitch. Michael Bourn's career OPS in the minors was .770. His MLB OPS is .704 (though one should adjust for steals some). Andrew McCutchen's career minor OPS was .785. His MLB OPS is .858 and that is going to climb. Hicks' career minors OPS is .800, better than both of them. I would look for Hicks to be somewhere right in the middle in his MLB career over the next several years (so .775-.800) and this coupled with great defense makes him a huge value for the Twins. A better value than Span and he was above average overall. There is ZERO reason to mess with the lineup except in days off for Hicks (Mastro takes position, Carroll takes leadoff).
  11. Shane Wahl
    No, it did not apply to anyone in particular. It is a general thing that I have found.
  12. Shane Wahl
    It is strange. I would bet that there would a 5 run difference in the first inning *alone*.
  13. Shane Wahl
    I have said this before and it is NOT directed to anyone in this thread, but I often get the same vibe from anti statistical analysis people as I do from anti-evolutionists. "Well, your theory isn't perfect, so . . . I'll just go back to what I *feel* is true." Clearly, evolution is more well-established since "theory" in science is *NOT* "theory" in general parlance, including baseball statistical analysis, but I do think there are similarities in the general acceptance of the two.
  14. Shane Wahl
    It's not just an assumption. It's probability based on statistical analysis. 1.5 wins seems a bit conservative when compared to common sense. And 1.5 wins matters.
  15. Shane Wahl
    When talking about Gardy, we are generally talking about statistical analysis vs. "gut" ("gut" to me is pretty dismissive). I would be surprised if this particular batting order change would mean less than 2 wins. But anything above 0 wins is enough for me to warrant the change. Clearly.
  16. Shane Wahl
    Yes, in real life the extra 7 times Joe Mauer gets on base throughout the year could mean 7 more wins. If ANYTHING, the math tempers things a bit.
  17. Shane Wahl
    Um, those projections of batters 2-7 seem pretty low.
  18. Shane Wahl
    Yeah, but I don't know when he will be back.
  19. Shane Wahl
    Aside: Tubby is good, and it is embarrassing for the Gophers to have not found a coach before the guy they fired was hired.
  20. Shane Wahl
    Salcedo is giong to start eventually. Stuifbergen will move up to New Britain soonish.
  21. Shane Wahl
    The Twins could surprise, certainly. I think 70 wins is my over/under. That's a four-game improvement from last season. Health plus an improved rotation could push that further to 72+.
  22. Shane Wahl
    But John's point seemed to be context-less. Like batting order optimization isn't a big deal at all. I cannot fathom how anyone actually argues against adding 1.5 wins, even one win. Note my post above about batting order optimization being only one part of the manager equation in terms of adding wins aside from what the players actually add.
  23. Shane Wahl
    Yes, though, he is in trouble maintaining as a reliever. But I actually have to wonder if he isn't going to be starting given that DL list. Popham and Martin (?) are options for those two spots, true.
  24. Shane Wahl
    I have to wonder if this whole terrible argument would be different if we think about the impact of 1-2 wins for a 90 or 91.5 win team? That could mean the difference between not being a wild card or being one. Or being a wild card or being a division winner. Or being a division winner and having home field advantage. ETC. ETC. ETC.
  25. Shane Wahl
    Well the WP came in the 5th or 6th pitch of the plate appearance. And, again, it is likely that Smyly will be throwing different pitches to Carroll than to Ramirez anyway.
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