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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I think the odds of Meyer becoming a top pitcher are higher than Arcia being a top hitter. Those big pitcher contracts are a lot riskier as well. The twins have been a lot more patient with pitchers than they have hitters, I believe cost control is one reason why.
  2. tobi0040
    Seth, I think the Meyer/Arcia comp is misguided. Meyer is a potential ace and boras is his agent. Arcia does not have the upside or the same agent Do you not think the twins factor in service time and control into these decisions?
  3. tobi0040
    Our contribution could be cutting pelfrey
  4. tobi0040
    I don't see any team in the division sniffing 100 wins. If anything the division seems as balanced as it has ever been with no real good team. This reeks of many in the 77 to 85 range to me
  5. tobi0040
    Seth, I am likely more cynical than you. But you give Meyer a month or more in aaa and I think some in the twins brass get giddy about delaying him yet again. The temptation of him needing to work on something could arise.
  6. tobi0040
    Regarding liriano, I would argue he probably had the best slider in the game and a plus plus fastball, before tj. After his slider was probably the only plus offering and even that was on a lower level than pre tj. I saw a classic game last year. Hitters were missing his slider by a foot. The heater was 97. Man.
  7. tobi0040
    He defnitely through a lot of pitches, but he was on a pitch count of about 80 a game for most of the season. That played a role too.
  8. tobi0040
    Yeah, he may miss a day or a month, who knows. But he will miss the tune up and I would be more worried about his overall health and the $70M they owe him from ages 36-40.
  9. tobi0040
    True, in the sense that Detroit's #3 is better than the Twins #3 last year.... But when scouts say #3 starter, I am guessing we are talking 3.90 to 4.30 ERA. Something in that range. I think Meyer could be much better than that over time.
  10. tobi0040
    Towards the end of his career, even my Mom used to say "he better hope he hits it over the wall"
  11. tobi0040
    I guess I wasn't following the "when healthy he can pitch", given how limited of a sample size he has had of success over nine years, and the relative mediocre-ness of that success.
  12. tobi0040
    I tend to very much prefer having talent in the rotation. One more shoulder injury may have me tinker with his mechanics to limit the shoulder issues. If that doesn't work, let it rip in the pen.
  13. tobi0040
    I am not blown away by the two years. We are going back five and seven years to find the good years. Two of his nine in the big's. That was in the NL and pre-TJ.....and his FIP/xFIP numbers those years were a very non-earth shattering 3.96/4.45 and 3.82/4.31.
  14. tobi0040
    My understanding is he picked up a circle change from Yohan Pino last year, but the FB and SL have been the same these years. In which case, working on a new pitch in AAA could lead to control issues. I don't think you get pitch fx data for minor league guys....but it would be interesting to see what percent of those changeups were for strikes relative to his other two pitches.
  15. tobi0040
    Maybe, he didn't really have control issues in 2012 and 2013. 2012 - 3.4 and 2.5 BB per 9. 2013 - 3.7 BB per 9.
  16. tobi0040
    Saying, he has control issues and those two pitches with control issues makes him a #3 starter. I get that. I guess I am seeing this differently though. I would view a ceiling under the assumption that his control improves and frankly, the .7 BB per 9 jump from 2013 to 2014 over 130 innings has caused a lot of concern. The BB's were not an issue in the mid 3's. .
  17. tobi0040
    How many #3 starters have two plus pitches? A 96+ fastball and a 89 mph wipeout slider? I think Baker in his prime. That is a #3 starter. He did not have those pitches.
  18. tobi0040
    It increases velo and general intimidation factors.
  19. tobi0040
    I get why some see him in the pen, since he hasn't been durable, repeatabe delivery causing injuries, etc. But the upside of a #3 starter does not make sense to me. I don't know anyone who argues that his fastball and slider are not plus. Just started developing a change. If that sniffs average....I see a much higher ceiling. I think he has the most upside in our system, which is a loaded one.
  20. tobi0040
    I agree that if he fails as a starter, he would probably be a really good reliever. But let's see if he fails as a starter first. Perkins went from a below average starter to a really good closer. I want to ensure we have pursued every avenue first. I don't think he should be moved to the pen after one more shoulder injury, I am not sure if that is what you are implying.
  21. tobi0040
    Step one is a good fu manchu.
  22. tobi0040
    Totally agree. He is 25. Velocty dips at 29-30. We have 5-6 years of control. Don't waste him in AAA.
  23. tobi0040
    If questions about his durability move him to the pen, I think the Twins are mis-guided. So what if he only goes 5 IP a start and has a 3.25-3.50 ERA? Ideally he goes 6-7 innings per start, but give me 170 innings at a 3.25-3.50 ERA over 60 at 2.50 ERA. Every day of the week. Craig Kimbrel has been about as dominant as it gets in the pen. He has a WAR of 7.7 over the last three years. 4.4 over the last two. So it took him about three years to achieve the WAR that Kluber an Kershaw achieved alone in 2014. Nine starters last year had a higher WAR than Kimbrels 2013 and 2014 combined. I wish we moved past these old school cut and dry rules, the pitcher has to go x innings and walk this many per 9, etc. At the end of the day, use your pitchers in a way that allows fewer runs to the opposing team. Let's not overthink it. It is really not that complicated. I think the biggest risk to Meyer is the Twins.
  24. tobi0040
    I would make May the the starter and use Meyer in long relief to start. Give him 3-5 appearances to break in to games that are 14-1. Then look to use him on a regular schedule out of the pen. Maybe that means he gets to pitch from the 7th to 9th every four days. Then when someone falters or gets hurt, he slides into the rotation. I like the comp to Randy Johnson, not because I think Meyer is going to be one of the best five pitchers of all time. But to highlight the risks of treating Meyer like all the other pitchers we have had. In his first 300 innings across three years, Randy had a BB per 9 of 5.4, then 7.8 (in just 29 IP), then 4.8. His ERA was 4.82 and 4.40. He finished his career with a BB per 9 of 3.3. But the Twins would definitely give up on Meyer as a 28 year old with 4.5 to 5 BB's per 9. He would be in AAA, then cut. He is a special talent. We need to give him extra leash and analyze his results a little differently. If he is striking out 9+ batters per 9 and giving up .7 or fewer HR's, under 8 hits per 9....look at his LOB % and see what type of walk rate is acceptable. A for instance, Meyer was 2nd in the international league in total walks last year. But he was 7th in ERA. His LOB % was 75. It has never been lower than 72% and has been a high at 79%. He led the league in K's and only gave up 10 HR.
  25. tobi0040
    Jimmer, I looked at fangraphs and could not find that data. Roster man, Love the thought. Enough with the scholarships. I hope that a condition to molitor accepting the job was under the premise that he will be given te best players, while specifically calling out pelfrey as an example of a scholarship. One can hope.....
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