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tobi0040

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  1. tobi0040

    ESPN SABR rankings

    tobi0040 commented on tobi0040's blog entry in Blog tobi0040

    Here is a more robust debate on the topic http://twinsdaily.com/topic/17021-espn-the-great-analytics-rankings-the-twins-are-not-so-great/
  2. tobi0040
    I guess I don't follow why this or even runs created is what we should be looking at. For one RBI is a very poor stat. Over the course of players career, this number tends to fluctuate a ton based on opportunities and BA with RISP becomes a small sample every year. But if we agree that Mauer will lead the team in OBP, which is close to a given and we buy that he is poor at driving in runners and hitting HR's (less of a fact), then that is exactly why you want him 1st versus 2nd or 3rd.
  3. tobi0040
    ESPN rankings for SABR metrics Twins were in the skeptic category, second from the worst. Some teams have quants from nasa and Phd's, we have "an mba from local st thomas" Kc and cleveland get good grades http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings#mlb-sfg
  4. tobi0040
    Great stat jimmer. To pile on, santana had a babip that was 18 percent higher, which won't last. In addition to dozier and mauer behind him and fewer outs at least 20 percent of the time. Look at it in football terms. The difference between a fast Rb and slow LB is about 3-4 tenths of a second running 120 feet. So I just don't see the speed difference between mauer and santana making up for the 5 or more percent of the time mauer is in base. There has to be a break even point between the two. Seems well past it to me.
  5. tobi0040
    The way I see it. Mauer is likely to be on base 39 to 40 percent of the time. At this point, nobody else on this team is a lock to be on base more than 35 percent of the time. No amount of speed makes up for that 4 or 5 plus percent gap, IMO. Give me a runner on first with no outs and I will take my chances. Joe's career OBP is .401. Santana needed a .319 average to have a .353. His BABIP was .405 last year. If Danny's BABIP is reasonable next year he may hit .280 or so, and using his 5% walk rate you get .330. We could have a situation where Joe is on base 21% more often. At some point you have a trade-off between speed and being on base more. I would think anything approaching 10% or more would vastly exceed that point. I really hope that the new Twins get rid of old baseball rules like "I need speed at the top of the order" and actually run scenarios based on numbers.
  6. tobi0040
    I don't think you can compare buxton and sano on ops. Scouts think buxton can win 2 or 3 games with defense per year and swipe 50 or more bases (and a solid lock on his position). So he has some things going for him to close the ops gap.
  7. tobi0040
    Let me start by saying their is a lot of room between not as good as cabrera and a really good baseball player. But best case was Sano debuting last year at 21 without surgery. Cabrera came up at 20. Had a 793 ops and followed up that with an 879 at age 21. The guy won a triple crown and is 15th all time in ops. He is an all time great. Personally I just don't think Sano will ever have the batting average that will allow him to exceed a career 960 ops. But I still think he is going to be really, really good
  8. tobi0040
    Chief, I had the caveat that I am assuming health and longevity. If Sano has that I think he hits enough for at least one of the 15 DH positions, 30 1b positions, etc. I really do. I think he clubs 30 plus hr a year and racks up some walks. So even if he hits 250 he has a job and can rack up an ops of 850.
  9. tobi0040
    I don't see Miguel's ceiling as being above Miguel cabrera's. You are talking about a career 320 hitter. I just don't see that kind of BA to go along with the power and walks. I know someone will say that BA is outdated, but I don't see if Miguel is a 270 hitter how the other metrics like ops will match cabrera's.
  10. tobi0040
    I guess I took some of the comments as we should move on from Arcia in the OF for example. Those moves would require cutting bodies at this point. If you are saying we can't count on many of these guys, I agree. But right now we don't know who will emerge and who won't and we don't need to make decisions yet. If Buxton appears this summer, than the weakest link may have to go but at that point we will have more data available. Or better yet they are all playing well and we can flip one of them.
  11. tobi0040
    I guess I don't know who you give up on at this point? Like it or not, 1B is covered. You move Arcia and Vargas to DH and you need to trade one. Hicks is a huge talent. Rosario is talented and very young. We should be in no rush here and should let these guys play themselves out of the premium positions that would suit the team the best in the future. Hicks is 25. Rosario is 23. Vargas is 24 and skipped AAA to have an OPS of .854 (OPS plus of 115) . He hit 26 HR last year between AA and MLB. And Arcia at ages 22/23 has a .743 OPS, an OPS plus of 104 and hit 34 HR in 200 games. Having given up on Carlos Gomez and JJ Hardy at much older ages than these guys makes me think we should let this ride.
  12. tobi0040
    I think we are crowded in the OF right now. Not with established MLB players that are part of the future. But with young, talented guys that we need to see if they are in the future plans or not. We have arguably the games best prospect coming up as early as June in CF. Arcia needs a little more time to see if he can play a corner. Hicks will probably get a few more months and Rosario could emerge this year. Obviously signing Torii does not help this equation, but in that sense and knowing that we are not winning the world series next year....I think we are pretty crowded.
  13. tobi0040
    Schmidt won 10 gold gloves and ended his career with a d WAR of 18. I don't see even the rosiest of rose colored glasses thinking Sano has any shot at those numbers at 3B. Schmidt was 6'2 and 195 pounds. Sano is 6'4 and 260 as a 21 year old and he needs to improve his footwork. I think multiple gold gloves would be a huge stretch at this point. I think the Twins would be happy if he sticks at 3B and can play adequete defense there for multiple years.
  14. tobi0040
    If he has a .571 slugging and an OPS of .915 the strikeouts seem moot to me.
  15. tobi0040
    I would need to know what Sano has been able to do this off-season. I think that goes a long way. But I don't expect Sano to just start out hitting a HR every few games, 2B, taking a ton of walks.
  16. tobi0040
    I think Jimmer was suggesting Plouffe can play 3B defensively and we don't know if Sano can. Which is fair. We need to ensure Sano can play there first. We went a very long time between good 3B....Koskie to Plouffe IMO.
  17. tobi0040
    Completely agree. You only move Plouffe when you know Sano sticks at 3B. Plouffe by virtue of him being a 3B would hold more value in a trade than our LF.
  18. tobi0040
    Right, somewhere between 7 and 10 at 3B. Definite value there. But assuming he has 2-4 years left of prime production (which is assuming he is the guy last year through ages 31-33)......does that make sense to give up for potentially 15-20 years of Sano at that prime position? I think you move Sano to the OF now he never goes back to 3B.
  19. tobi0040
    I think option one is keeping Sano at 3B. He is a franchise caliber player so he needs to stick at a premium position if he can. He has the potential to be much better than Plouffe and Trevor would have some trade value at 3B. Trevor will be 29 next season and he has a career .723 OPS. In his best year, he had a .750 OPS which made him somewhere between the 7-10th best 3B. Middle of the road as far as a corner OF. We just can't knock Sano, who could play the game the next 20 years off of 3B for what will amount to a few prime years of Plouffe. And I say that liking Plouffe more than most.
  20. tobi0040
    I am very excited about Sano and really hope he can stick at 3B. Here are my best case/worst case for his career. This assumes he stays healthy throughout his career which is never a given. Best case - Mike Schmidt (granted a much weaker fielding one) - This means he sticks at 3B. Hits .265-.270. Averages about 35 HR a year. .380 OBP and an OPS around .900. Averages 80-90 BB a year. I think his K numbers will be more the first half of Mike’s career, 23-27%, versus the last half where he brought his career average down to 19%. Averages an o WAR of 5 per season. Worst case – Adam Dunn. He plays OF or DH. Dunn’s career average was .237 but was more in the .250 range until the last few years. .364 OBP, .854 OPS. Averages 33 HR a year. 80-90 BB a year. K’s 28% of the time. Averages about 2.8 o WAR per year.
  21. tobi0040
    That is the funny thing about the draft grades the day after. You can usually go back and laugh at those. Or the Kershaw scouting report from the team that drafted him. Projected him as a #2 starter as a ceiling and his breaking balls needed a ton of work.
  22. tobi0040
    I have long thought about this as well. Trevor May in the minors has had seasons like this. In 2013 he had a 4.50 ERA or so, ton of K's, lots of BB's. But he had 26 ER in 4 starts, a few of them 2-3 innings each (high BB starts too). He made 27 starts I think that year. So you are going to lose for sure, 4 of the 27 starts. But now you have a guy giving you a chance to win in the other 23. He had several games with 0, 1, or 2 ER.
  23. tobi0040
    Yeah. The funny thing is I distinctly remember the hobgood pick and how great it was received
  24. tobi0040
    Odds are one of these six guys will need tommy john or will have some other major surgery. Happens almost every year.
  25. tobi0040
    I think you have many different types of lists. Who will be up this year could be one. Who has the most upside could be another. But the short term list would have Logan Darnell ranked higher than Kohl Stewart.
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